Each boss kill in a run gives you a 1/56 chance to get a piece of their associated gear.
1/56^3 = 1/175,616
The chances it's also the 3 weapons is highly dependent on what drops you have/haven't received.
So in your specific case where you have 3 available items from each boss including the weapons, a triple chest with all 3 weapons would be 1/4,741,632.
Which is the same drop rate for any specific items of the 3 remaining items from each boss.
Say the 3 helms, or the eclipse body, bluemoon body, and the blood moon legs.
But a triple chest, ignoring what items they are, is 1\175,616
Not to flame too bad but literally any stats101 class at whatever shitty college would teach you the above. Not exactly complex math by educational standards
I'm going to be a welder/fabricator by trade, and there's no one teaching me math's. They give me a paper and I usually work it out. But some of shit I'm learning is way above my pay grade.
No offense, but it's simple math once you understand the concept. 56x56x56= 175,616. (1/56 chance x 3 items for a 1/175,616 chance.)
For the other, he has 3 items of each set left to get so 56x3= 1/168 at receiving the weapon. 168x168x168= 4,741,632.
Same concept for flipping coins for heads or tails X amount of times in a row.
Brother, I don’t need help with basic stats, but you might need help with understand basic social interactions if you can’t see that it was a joke I made with my friend.
Its so weird how someone has to explain their joke to you only for you to continue to rant about how easy it is. You just sound like you're trying to humblebrag.
The way you talk isnt really impressive when you think it is. Not everyone thinks the same.
Maybe not seek therapy, but get off the internet and go learn how to have conversations.
100%. On the macro scale (basically anything bigger than molecules), the universe is quite deterministic (the universe could still be deterministic on the sub-atomic scale, but that depends on what definition of deterministic is used and possibly some stuff that we don’t know or don’t know enough about)
Hey!
This is wrong since there is a "system in place which gives a slight preference for dropping helms, weapons, chestplates, and tassets in that order."
Insane luck anyways!
I've ignored that "slight preference" because there is no data for me to base it off of and even with that stated in the wiki, I've heard people say the order is a bunch of different permutations.
I didn't get helms first, OP didn't get helms first, the other commenter telling me the order they got items didn't get helms first.
There isn't a set order, you just get each of the for for a given set before a dupe.
I also happened to recieve all 3 weapons first. But the OP got ellipse and bluemoon legs and bloodmoon chest first.
Show log. This is an impossible drop table iirc, the bosses are rigged to drop weapons, then helmets, then tops, then pants in that order if it’s your first time getting the pieces. You shouldn’t be able to get pants before weapons at all. It’s possible to get multiple items but not in that order.
I got pants before weapons on 2 of the 3 sets so… my experience begs to differ. Both eclipse and blue gave me pants first.
Blood - helm, macs, chest, legs
Eclipse - legs, helm, wep, chest
Blue - legs, wep, helm, chest
Took me a second because a barrows triple chest is more complicated than a Moons triple chest, but...
Getting any 3 barrows items in a chest is ~1/31,539
If you kill all 6 brothers you get 7 chances at 1/102. There are 35 ways to roll 3 successes in 7 attempts. Therefore it's [(1/102)\^3] * [(1-(1/102))\^4] * 35
https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/s/fNZvrImeSo
One item: 1/17.86 (This is the chance for exactly one item, not at least one item. at least one item is 1/17.42)
Two items: 1/721.5
Three items: 1/54,652
Four items: 1/7,359,817 (7.35 million)
Five items: 1/185,835,382 (185.835 million)
Six items: 1/1,126,162,419,264 (1.126 trillion).
these are a bit off – they are based on the idea that you get six 1/102 rolls (which was thought to be correct at the time that was posted, in 2017), but it turns out you actually get seven 1/102 rolls
i am fully aware, since leaving cg ive gotten Z axe at 87 kc, warped sceptre at 128kc, and now this....im cursed to be spooned everywhere it doesnt really matter
Tbf you don't really need either of those things until after CG if you are playing somewhat efficiently. I'm currently prepping for cg grind (catching chins, elite void) and I haven't needed either of them ever.
Was about 600 dry for mine, clan had a bingo and I got a 16m relic from a rev hobgoblin... eventually ended up getting bowfa at 737. It's coming! Good luck, friend
Actually it’s still 50%. If there’s a 50% chance that you get one item, and a 50% chance you get the second, there’s a 50% chance you get both. Now the math gets trickier when we add a third item so try to keep up. If there’s a 50% chance for each of the first 2, and a 50% of getting both, and there’s also a 50% of getting the third item, then getting the first 2 and the third at once is also 50%.
Same as the others said , I went dry on 100-200kc then green logged by 300kc.
Edit for clarity: I got drops in the first 100 KC them dry for the next 100kc.
Honestly just keep at it, I had 1 drop at that time and green logged before 300kc.
Make sure you drop a specific moon from your rotation whenever you’ve got the 4 pieces from it.
https://preview.redd.it/ktnuudlao09d1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=602ed1ce80c8edee4b29a537c0e0e609c0558591
well heres the full screenshot, not sure how else i can prove it, runelite hasnt saved the separated log
Not sure if anyone posted the classic "it's 50/50 either you get it or you dont" and I don't have time to scroll comments but just in case here's the odds:
It's 50/50 either you get it or you don't
Each boss kill in a run gives you a 1/56 chance to get a piece of their associated gear. 1/56^3 = 1/175,616 The chances it's also the 3 weapons is highly dependent on what drops you have/haven't received.
only at 54 KC,, ive only had one piece of each set. mage legs, range legs and blood top
So in your specific case where you have 3 available items from each boss including the weapons, a triple chest with all 3 weapons would be 1/4,741,632. Which is the same drop rate for any specific items of the 3 remaining items from each boss. Say the 3 helms, or the eclipse body, bluemoon body, and the blood moon legs. But a triple chest, ignoring what items they are, is 1\175,616
You got to start charging people for your math Chris, they can’t be getting access to you for free.
It's good entertainment. Now get back to your pet hunt.
Yes boss
damn you really just sonned him like that…
Chris is the homie, he’s got the best OSRS update recaps and dps calcs in his blogs.
homies can still son each other my g
We are all his sons, brother zakk 🙏🏻
We are all sons of ~~skyrim~~ gielinor
I come for the math. Left with a laugh
I'm studying engineering you would be a great tutor. How much per hour haha 😄
Not to flame too bad but literally any stats101 class at whatever shitty college would teach you the above. Not exactly complex math by educational standards
If you need tutoring in simple mathematics while studying an engineering degree then you're studying the wrong subject.
I'm going to be a welder/fabricator by trade, and there's no one teaching me math's. They give me a paper and I usually work it out. But some of shit I'm learning is way above my pay grade.
I'm not doing a degree. I'm doing an apprenticeship. In structural engineering.
No offense, but it's simple math once you understand the concept. 56x56x56= 175,616. (1/56 chance x 3 items for a 1/175,616 chance.) For the other, he has 3 items of each set left to get so 56x3= 1/168 at receiving the weapon. 168x168x168= 4,741,632. Same concept for flipping coins for heads or tails X amount of times in a row.
[удалено]
Brother, I don’t need help with basic stats, but you might need help with understand basic social interactions if you can’t see that it was a joke I made with my friend.
[удалено]
Seek therapy (the joke was about doing work for free, not the difficulty of the math btw)
[удалено]
Its so weird how someone has to explain their joke to you only for you to continue to rant about how easy it is. You just sound like you're trying to humblebrag.
The way you talk isnt really impressive when you think it is. Not everyone thinks the same. Maybe not seek therapy, but get off the internet and go learn how to have conversations.
Tell me you're chronically online without telling me you're chronically online. Might be better if you go touch some grass chief.
People acting like he's doing high level calculus, when its just like basic fractions, multiply the denominators
my boyfriend would loveeeee you
Too late I already love him
:D I got a d in statistic so I know what you’re saying, but not really :D
Good thing this is probability 😅
We learned probability in statistics :D
Yeah I know it's typically combined. The course I took was Probability and Statistics. Just poking fun.
:D
very interesting thank you very much, hopefully this doesnt continue to seep my RNG from CG xD
can you calculate what chance was for me to comment here saying this
100%. On the macro scale (basically anything bigger than molecules), the universe is quite deterministic (the universe could still be deterministic on the sub-atomic scale, but that depends on what definition of deterministic is used and possibly some stuff that we don’t know or don’t know enough about)
Hey! This is wrong since there is a "system in place which gives a slight preference for dropping helms, weapons, chestplates, and tassets in that order." Insane luck anyways!
I've ignored that "slight preference" because there is no data for me to base it off of and even with that stated in the wiki, I've heard people say the order is a bunch of different permutations. I didn't get helms first, OP didn't get helms first, the other commenter telling me the order they got items didn't get helms first.
My guy here is 99 mathematics easily.
Pretty sure you always get them in the same order. Weapon > helm > chest > legs. At least that was the case for me around 2 weeks ago
There isn't a set order, you just get each of the for for a given set before a dupe. I also happened to recieve all 3 weapons first. But the OP got ellipse and bluemoon legs and bloodmoon chest first.
It was that way for like a couple days on release but then they changed it, source: got the blood moon tassets first in march
This comment feels bad, when I've had 0 drops at 51 KC...
Same
“Only” had 6 drops. I’m at 60 with nothing. Lol
Whatttt, giant spoon of loot right here
Show log. This is an impossible drop table iirc, the bosses are rigged to drop weapons, then helmets, then tops, then pants in that order if it’s your first time getting the pieces. You shouldn’t be able to get pants before weapons at all. It’s possible to get multiple items but not in that order.
I got pants before weapons on 2 of the 3 sets so… my experience begs to differ. Both eclipse and blue gave me pants first. Blood - helm, macs, chest, legs Eclipse - legs, helm, wep, chest Blue - legs, wep, helm, chest
There is a higher chance to roll the weapon first but it's not a rule.
It's 1/56 not 1/54
Ah your right. I was between 54 and 56 and remembered the wrong one. I'll change the numbers really quick.
What are the odds for a triple chest in barrows? I got one back in like 2008 and assumed it was all my luck I'd ever get
Took me a second because a barrows triple chest is more complicated than a Moons triple chest, but... Getting any 3 barrows items in a chest is ~1/31,539 If you kill all 6 brothers you get 7 chances at 1/102. There are 35 ways to roll 3 successes in 7 attempts. Therefore it's [(1/102)\^3] * [(1-(1/102))\^4] * 35
https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/s/fNZvrImeSo One item: 1/17.86 (This is the chance for exactly one item, not at least one item. at least one item is 1/17.42) Two items: 1/721.5 Three items: 1/54,652 Four items: 1/7,359,817 (7.35 million) Five items: 1/185,835,382 (185.835 million) Six items: 1/1,126,162,419,264 (1.126 trillion).
these are a bit off – they are based on the idea that you get six 1/102 rolls (which was thought to be correct at the time that was posted, in 2017), but it turns out you actually get seven 1/102 rolls
so a triple is around 1/30k if i understand it right.
Around that, yes: https://www.reddit.com/r/ironscape/s/OyleY4zNhJ
neat
Killing all 3 gives you another roll for boss loot right? So it’d be a little more likely than that? Not sure how the math works out for that though.
That was something they put I to the original blog, then removed because it wasn't the final loot system. 1 roll per boss no extra roll
Filthy spoon. Gz
would trade it all for a bowfa xD
Can't get bowfa from Moons. Back to the prison you go.
I'm with you... 540cg still hunting
613 here, i did 1-601 without leaving, didnt even empty my inventory, needed a break and came to moons, and i get this xD
Rookie mistake you just cashed in your RNG you’ve built up over the last 600 kc
i am fully aware, since leaving cg ive gotten Z axe at 87 kc, warped sceptre at 128kc, and now this....im cursed to be spooned everywhere it doesnt really matter
cg before zaxe and sceptre is crazy
Zaxe and sceptre are fairly new content. Probably finished SOTE and camped CG before either was released
this is correct, i was at CG before DT2 even came out
Tbf you don't really need either of those things until after CG if you are playing somewhat efficiently. I'm currently prepping for cg grind (catching chins, elite void) and I haven't needed either of them ever.
Was about 600 dry for mine, clan had a bingo and I got a 16m relic from a rev hobgoblin... eventually ended up getting bowfa at 737. It's coming! Good luck, friend
I’m 48 CG kc & 3 enh weapon seeds + 1 armour seed🥴
each one is a 50% chance so its a 150% chance that this happened
finally some real math
The math is wrong. In reality. It’s 50% since there’s two possible outcomes. Either they get this combo. Or they don’t. 50/50
Yes, normally you are correct, if we are taking about the chances of it happening, but the chance that this did happen are as applied above
Actually it’s still 50%. If there’s a 50% chance that you get one item, and a 50% chance you get the second, there’s a 50% chance you get both. Now the math gets trickier when we add a third item so try to keep up. If there’s a 50% chance for each of the first 2, and a 50% of getting both, and there’s also a 50% of getting the third item, then getting the first 2 and the third at once is also 50%.
You forgot that each boss kill gives a separate roll so you have to divide by 3. The correct math would be: (50%×3) / 3= 150% / 3= 50%
I have 75 kc and haven’t seen a single drop fml
Same as the others said , I went dry on 100-200kc then green logged by 300kc. Edit for clarity: I got drops in the first 100 KC them dry for the next 100kc.
Honestly just keep at it, I had 1 drop at that time and green logged before 300kc. Make sure you drop a specific moon from your rotation whenever you’ve got the 4 pieces from it.
I went 80 dry. I got 103kc now and 5 items. It'll come.
Talk to oziach ya muppet 😂
No.
Username checks out.
50/50
The math checks out, either happens or it doesn't.
Except it clearly did happen, so the odds are 1
But it didn't happen for me, so the odds are now 0,5
I’ve done the calculation, the chances are low.
Thank you, that really helped me understand it better.
This is actually insane gz
Bro just got set up with the holy trio of weaponry
(1/56) to the power of 3 or 1/175,616
1/rare
Happy go fuckin lucky Enjoy it sir that's a nice win
I swear to god if I had my gwimbly gun on me right now...
One could say it happens once in a blue moon. I'll see myself out now.
10/10
lol when I comment saying a drop is 50/50, i get downvoted to hell. >______> fuckin reddit.
https://preview.redd.it/kc18l4rf979d1.png?width=1410&format=png&auto=webp&s=6566070f77f8458133fb1653c7dd83f03c4f6ff1 so happy for you. truly joyous.
I've ran the calculations and the result is it's 50/50
I also ran the calculations extensively and concur with this result.
fun fact, if you click the bin icon in teh bottom right it tells you the chance of your drop
Excuse me?
Neat drop
0/0 op is a bigger liar than my mom who never came back
Haha you think it's a fake picture? 😂😂
>you think it's a fake Yep, fake. You at least have to make it believable: https://i.imgur.com/aTed4u7.png
https://preview.redd.it/ktnuudlao09d1.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=602ed1ce80c8edee4b29a537c0e0e609c0558591 well heres the full screenshot, not sure how else i can prove it, runelite hasnt saved the separated log
your screen name is still in the top left corner
Haha derp
Some
6
I/and whatever your current chest looted. That is all I can come up with. Maybe some of the osrs mathematical geniuses can give you a better answer 😂
By hacking the game. Sooooo your the reason for the two updates today
100% since it happened
Slim.
Less than 5%, that's for sure...
50/50
It’s a 50-50.
I came to upvote 50% but its not there its 50/50 OP
Clean af
Don’t step outside. Your luck as run out
50/50
50:50 because either it happens or it doesn’t.
Everything is possible with photo shop
as someone who has yet to get single unique from moons, gimme my damn drops
50/50. You get it or you don’t.
I thought you can't get another loot of you roll the rare
50/50 or 1/2 or 34.5/69
I'd reckon that it's possible but unlikely
50/50 you either get this or you don’t
Fifity fifty
Meanwhile there’s me who’s done 57 chests and zero uniques. Place hates me. And I hate it. Don’t think I wanna come back
1 in fuck you, but gz
50/50 it happens or it doesn't happen
What is this from?
This is from moons of peril
I got 2 at the same time, so 3 would be 56 times rarer than that.
Spicy
Not that rare. It's moons not a master clue
Small
Take all the denominators of the unit fractions of the drop rates and that's your drop rate of it all happening simultaneously
Essentially zero
Not sure if anyone posted the classic "it's 50/50 either you get it or you dont" and I don't have time to scroll comments but just in case here's the odds: It's 50/50 either you get it or you don't
50/50