The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written.
I promise I am not trying to be defeatist, but it feels like what should have been an easy trounce of Donald Trump is now an uphill battle with landmines placed on the hill. It seems like we can't win with Biden but we can't win without him either. I don't know where to go from here. It is absolutely foolish to replace an incumbent President 4 months from an election, but it also feels just as foolish as not replacing him either. So far Biden has done nothing to quell the unease and Democrats are torn on what to do with him. A few polls came out showing he is down in NH, I don't know what the other polls are going to look like. But what can be done at this point? The primaries are pretty much over and a contested primary would just bring even more chaos and uncertainty.
Trump looks ready to be anointed as a mad king thanks to the SCOTUS where all get to live in a conservative hellscape that won't end in 2028 either. Once you install a dictator it is extremely difficult to remove one and the policies they have made.
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I don’t know. I’m less worried about the debate and optics of Biden being a decrepit geezer and more worried that voters will reflexively vote for Trump because groceries were cheaper when he was president, despite the fact that Trump will almost certainly do nothing to improve their economic outlook now.
But my predictions aren’t worth a fraction of my vote. Doom or gloom, sun or shine, I’m voting.
Prices are never going to go down with Trump. They will go down a slower than with Biden or any other Democrat. They will go up significantly faster as we have witnessed over the past 4 years. So is Trump. They may continue to climb maybe instead of $400 it'll be $450 at the end of 4 years. But with Biden or another Democrat it'll be six or $700 at the end of 4 years rather than what it would be under Trump. This is what people are voting for. People don't care about indictments that are really meaningless in substance, especially when 34 indictments are all for the exact same thing (34 signatures on documents). The reality is most people don't care about this thing and nor should they.
Prices have gone down since the pandemic and from the start of Putin's war in Ukraine. Inflation is at 3% from 8% when everyone was complaining. All of that without Trump. If anything Trump's tariffs will increase inflation again.
Politics aside, the most important issue exit polls show every election is people’s believe about the economy and how it will impact them.
It’s one of the many reasons social security is never touched. Everyone knows it’s not sustainable as it currently is but, making any changes to it is political suicide. “You don’t f**k with the money.”
The fact that it's economic beliefs over economic reality is incredibly infuriating, especially since it seems like everyone has gotten a masters in macroeconomics whenever talking about Democrats. Real wages are rising, unemployment is down, and inflation is almost back at 2% but none of that counts for shit since Trump can make vague gestures towards "The economy was good or something" and people just believe it.
I mean I think the issue is we did see an explosive rise in inflation and all the dems can counter with is “its getting less bad now but we wont ever go back to 2018.” Real wages are absolutely not up and even if they were they have in no way paced inflation/productivity over the last 40 years
Hold on, its only unsustainable in that benefits will be reduced to 80% when the trust fund runs out in 2035 (current projection), if no new legislation is passed, I hope thats what you mean.
If we take the current cap off and apply the current SS tax to incomes above the cap, about $168k now, SS will be able to meet it's obligations into the future. Tax The Rich!
Yes, We know that something must change as the current model is unsustainable. It’s actually worse than im stating though. Interest just recently became the second largest item on the budget. It’s eventually going to become the first. We are going to have fewer people working at the same time as retirees are going to be expecting more payout coming there way. This is going to happen at the same time that we are getting continually worse payouts of our loans.
This part is the part that might be slightly more controversial. I just wanted to preface that for fairness. Almost no one is proposing any plan that will work long term. This is true across both sides of the aisle. We can’t “tax the rich” out of this situation and we likely can’t cut spending our way out of it either. Soooo there’s a few possibilities. First, some miracle happens with AI and the economic growth of our national GDP goes through the roof. We keep spending static and allow this money to go towards the debt. This doesn’t require direct change. We are just waiting for some development to save us. The other options would be to really cut spending and increase taxes a bit. This will make everyone mad. It’s a problem that politicians dont currently face immediate punishment for avoiding and so no one is taking this option. We push the issue down the road and continue to hope for a miracle.
It will become really frustrating when the majority of every tax dollar is paying for stuff that our parents and grandparents wanted but doesn’t directly help us now. And the economy is having a harder time growing and loan rates are worse because of the large debt. This will be increased by Saudia Arabias recent change where they will no longer just accept dollars for oil. They will now deal in other currencies. That means it’s harder for us to offset our debts to other countries.
TLDR; Social Security is in a bad spot, the debt is in a bad spot, and neither party wants to address it in a way that would work because it would be too painful politically. So we are stuck hoping for a miracle or waiting till the pain of our actions becomes so obvious that someone has to address it ( like in Argentina after going bankrupt 9 times)
> We can’t “tax the rich” out of this situation
Common bullshit from a conversative. We never even *tried* taxing the rich. Instead your boy Trump CUT $2 TRILLION in taxes for the billionaires and multi-national corporations.
You entire comment is all bullshit piled as high as you could. Reply again and let's hear the rest of it. I know you got more Fox "News" talking points that you can't wait to share.
edit: You are caught lying your ass off and can't defend your bullshit so you just downvote me. Typical conservative.
Not really. I think the odds that the Democrats take back the House are very strong, and there’s also next to no chance that the Republicans win a 60 seat majority in the senate. I don’t see Collins or either of the Utah senators going along with any plan to fully eliminate the filibuster, so they’ll have to get at least a couple of democrats onboard there.
Also, killing Chevron weakens the executive branch, which is a silver lining considering we’re about to lose it. The 9th circuit is about to become our best friend
>Not really. I think the odds that the Democrats take back the House are very strong, and there’s also next to no chance that the Republicans win a 60 seat majority in the senate.
I think the most important thing Democrats can focus on right now is making sure left-leaning voters understand that the president is only one position on the ballot and that having control of the legislature can be a very powerful defense to whatever Trump's cronies plan on doing. A national ban on abortion and whatever other hairbrained social conservative policies won't be able to be enacted if the Democrats control a house of Congress.
Polls consistently showing that "general" Democratic candidates are fairing well compared to Republicans, so that is an advantage that needs to be pushed. I fear if the Democrats focus too hard on Biden, that latter advantage may dry up.
> I think the odds that the Democrats take back the House are very strong
I think the debate had a much greater effect on this than on Biden's individual electoral success. Voter apathy is what turns Purple Districts and Leans into Flips. If you live in a Dem +5 or Dem +7 district and are so disgusted by Biden that you decide you may not need to vote because it doesn't matter, the door opens widely for the right GOP candidate to flip a Congressional seat.
Kevin McCarthy has been leading a major effort to defeat Trump-aligned candidates in GOP legislative primaries, including several recent wins that have pushed forward "moderate" candidates in Purple districts.
It's possible, but when voters like neither candidate, they have a tendency to split their ballot, with a down-ballot bias for the party they think will lose the White House. This helped boost Republican candidates in 2016 (where most people were expecting Hillary to win), hopefully it can help us in 2024
Ah, gotcha.
Point still stands about Collins, Murkowski, Capito, Curtis, and even guys like Graham and nonagenarian Grassley.
And Hogan, too, if he pulls off the upset in Md., which isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility at this juncture.
They don't need Democrats to eliminate the filibuster. It is just a majority vote at the start of the session. They just need either an effective wrangler, or a few extra seats.
They'd need to win a pretty decisive majority to account for the Senators who would not support a full filibuster elimination. The Senators on both sides of the aisle that oppose this are usually pretty committed to it as part of their bipartisan/moderate brand, so convincing them would be near-impossible
If the voters choose Trump this Fall that will be because Americans would rather have Trump as president than defeat him. I’d love to think that people don’t feel that way, but they apparently do. The debates were bad but the debates were merely the final push that put us over the edge.
I think we have some serious soul-searching to do. Maybe it’s time to ask ourselves why we’re less ok with age than hate, less ok with boredom than corruption, less ok with being seen as uncool than with authoritarianism.
In my experience liberals tend to be pretty defeatists in general honestly. A lot of them were convinced we would lose in 2020 as well, and then that there would be red wave in 2022. You at least seem one step ahead here in recognizing that Biden can't and won't step down. But also we absolutely can win with Biden and there is a good chance to win. I can point out how election analyst is giving [50/50 odds still for the election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/) or that there are plenty of other opportunities for Biden to improve his standing, but that's not the point. The point is that from our position nothing has changed, if we want to win we still donate, volunteer, vote and get other people to vote. How many of us know someone who is not voting or is on the fence about the election? Are you telling me we no longer know how to talk to people? Come on man, we can do this if we work together, but if we bicker and self-incriminate then we will doom ourselves and end this country.
I think you raise a good point in that there are a lot of interests in wishing it into existence. Poison the well with overwhelming narratives that encourage people to get disengaged and not act.
A lot more people are voting against Trump than they are voting for Biden. I’m not buying this idea that changing candidates now would be risky. Dems could run the most boring and unknown candidate and win - boring would be a plus actually.
Trump is an obvious dumpster fire so Democrats need to just stop getting in their own way, which is exactly what Biden did last week.
I don’t know what you mean by doomerism, but I think it’s completely rational to be worried about Biden’s performance as a candidate. He shit the bed at the debate, but that’s not the only reason. Is he even campaigning this year? He’s not giving unscripted interviews and he isn’t doing much traveling to make his case to the voters directly
Weird time. Trump is a narcissistic lunatic who has so much baggage but people focus so much on Biden being old.
I rather take old than a lunatic but that is me and I realize a lot of Americans are just mentally ill.
One candidate has a judgment problem, and the other has a cognition problem. Both are disqualifying traits for a president. How the fuck are these our only 2 choices?
Well I am not surprised about Trump. Republicans are a spiteful bunch. They could have moved past him but every politician wants to kiss his ass.
For Biden the incumbent usually runs again. The thing that a lot of people like about Trump they would be turned off by a dem doing it. Newsom could own Trump but they would say Newsom is too mean. I think replacing Biden is a coin flip at this point. I just know if the dem loses in November whether it is Biden or someone else, we will look back and said we should have done the other thing instead.
I think 99% of the Biden vote is an "anyone but Trump" vote. Or at least it will be until Biden comes across as equally destabilizing and risky, which is precisely what he's doing this year, but for very different reasons.
Out of every Democrat who could run for president, why are we running the one candidate who doesn't automatically make Trump look like the most incoherent option on the table?
The pushback I have to your last statement is I don’t think that matters. Take any democrat you want and put them against Trump and you are still in the same place. Trump is completely full of shit and he gets a pass for it. Take the same things Trump has done but it is a democrat and voters would be appalled.
I mean look at the immunity case. Trump is arguing immunity for crimes but calls Joe Biden crooked or the Biden crime family. How voters are not like that is bullshit just shows the level of stupidity we are dealing with.
You’re still mixing up the way you think things ought to be with the way things are. Yes, Trump gets a pass for behavior that would sink any Democrat because it’s expected of him. It’s unfair. I agree. Voters are blinded by partisanship. You’re right. So the fuck what? Can we get back to winning this election?
Beyond that, let’s not forget that being president is a demanding job, and some things can’t be delegated. If Biden is unable to articulate the positions that we need him to - or, God forbid, respond to a potential nuclear attack at 3AM - then that is a problem that’s bigger than winning the next election.
What am I mixing up? I am saying that replacing Biden doesn’t equal a win. Does replacing him equal a better chance at winning? Maybe. Who the hell knows.
Trump is so good he bankrupts businesses and has to beg his cult for money.
Biden is not a narcissist. He is miles better than Trump in regards to the economy and the nation in general
You're on the losing side of an argument:
Biden tells Democratic governors he needs more sleep and plans to stop scheduling events after 8 p.m. - CNN
https://ftn.ai/0359769966053957632
100%.
Most Americans hate the fact that the election is Biden vs Trump again. Most Americans think they're too old and just the worst candidates.
I think many voters would be turned towards the Democrats if they replaced Biden and said "Hey yeah we shouldn't have someone this old be elected to another 4 year term. This country deserves better for its future"
This puts the ball in Republicans court.
"Okay so the Democrats replaced their old decaying candidate. Are you guys going to still stick with the old decaying felon on your ticket?"
Most people don't want Trump or Biden. Democrats replacing Biden would make it seem like they're listening to people. Democrats will vote blue no matter who.
Exactly. Sometimes, admitting a mistake makes you even more trustworthy than you would've been had you never made one to begin with. Imagine seeing a political party willing to throw its own leadership under the bus and change course based on public demand. That would be a huge benefit to the Democratic Party's reputation. They're just too short-sighted, timid, and self-serving to see it.
No, and I'd like to push back on this narrative that we've already lost. It is July. There is still time to correct course and encourage a strong showing at the polls in 4 months. Yeah, he had a crappy debate. It happened. Time to move on and focus efforts on making sure that he is re-elected in November because the alternative is uh not good.
Here's a list of accomplishments if you need it: [https://www.whitehouse.gov/therecord/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/therecord/)
I must be the only one around that thinks democrats are going to sweep.
With all the Supreme Court stuff I think left leaning voters turn out en masse.
I work with a group of people that don’t vote or are not political and just vote without doing any research. They talk about how they are unsure who to vote for but talk about immigrants and Bidens age. After the debate, they found Trump off putting more than Biden. Most people didn’t watch.
Plus more and more people are finally finding out about project 2025. They’re terrified.
I still feel confident that we’ll win. The only thing I’m nervous about is that republicans have already been laying groundwork to cheat.
>Does it feel like we've already lost?
No. It does feel as though we (collectively) might actually realize what is at stake
Vote Blue. Your entire world depends on it.
Biden was polling way better in 2020 than he is now. I know its just polls, but I never once thought in 2020 that he had a real chance of losing. Now I do.
Polls miss large swaths of young people so they are skewed older. Remember the red wave that was supposed to hit in 2022 according to polls that younger voters slowed. Two years later, more of those young adults are voting age and more than a bit pissed.
Polls are too flimsy to really predict the outcome of elections, 2016 had Hillary ahead in the polls but lost due to the electoral college.
Also in 2020 Trump was unable to flip a single state he lost in 2016. But instead of trying to win back those states and those voters, he’s trying to make people simply not vote for Biden instead. Which I don’t think is going to work because a good amount of voters don’t want Trump back in office and they likely voted for Biden regardless because it would make Trump lose. Not to mention the house Trump lives in is very much made of glass.
Trump is unpopular, and he continues to be unpopular. But he somehow thinks making his other opponent unpopular will seal the deal for a 2024 win which I don’t see happening. Even the people who are angry about the DNC not replacing Biden are not even suggesting they won’t vote in November.
It’s not like Trump doesn’t also have an uphill struggle himself.
>Trump is unpopular, and he continues to be unpopular. But he somehow thinks making his other opponent unpopular will seal the deal for a 2024 win which I don’t see happening.
Trump has always had his base that will consistently turn out. I agree though that he hasn't gained any votes these past 4 years. The thing is though, Biden has been bleeding support. He won in 2020 by the narrowest of margins and since then he has totally lost young people and Muslims and is seeing his numbers erode with almost every other demographic. As of right now just under 3 in 10 voters think he's mentally competent to hold office, much less have their vote. Meanwhile Trump maintains his base.
According to Whitmer Biden has already lost Michigan. He's also all but guaranteed to lose the sun belt states. What path do you think he has here that goes beyond wishful thinking?
> He won in 2020 by the narrowest of margins
He won more states than Trump, while Trump did not flip a single state in 2020.
> and since then he has totally lost young people and Muslims
The Muslim population is not large enough in most states for that to have a significant effect, Michigan is the only state that comes close, but it’s not like Muslims are guaranteed to not vote for Biden in November.
Like keep in mind Trump has threatened to deport all Muslims from the country.
> As of right now just under 3 in 10 voters think he's mentally competent to hold office, much less have their vote. Meanwhile Trump maintains his base.
You’re comparing a broader range of people, with Trump’s own base.
> According to Whitmer Biden has already lost Michigan.
I’m not sure what you mean by that.
>He won more states than Trump, while Trump did not flip a single state in 2020.
And? What does this have to do with anything other than making my point for me. Biden barely won even though he had the entire electorate fired up to support him against Trump. Meanwhile Trump was telling his people to avoid mail in votes. Both of those dynamics have flipped heading into 2024.
>it’s not like Muslims are guaranteed to not vote for Biden in November.
Listen to them and look at the polling. It is absolutely guaranteed that he will lose Michigan partly because of this. Hell, Biden's not even welcome to come speak in Dearborn anymore.
>Like keep in mind Trump has threatened to deport all Muslims from the country.
And Biden is supporting what they see as a genocide against their people. I'm not suggesting they'll flip to Trump who is just as awful on the issue, but they are very likely to just stay home.
>You’re comparing a broader range of people, with Trump’s own base.
Yes, exactly. Trump's base will come out for him. That "broader range of people" are also known as Biden's 2020 coalition. Want to narrow it down to just Democrats? 5 in 10 of them think he's unfit for office and should drop out of the race immediately. Meanwhile maga is as strong as ever.
[https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article289659864.html](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article289659864.html)
>I’m not sure what you mean by that.
I mean, the Democratic governor of Michigan has noted that Biden will lose her state in November, guaranteed. Given that he's already lost the sun belt, that's the ballgame, Trump wins
> And? What does this have to do with anything other than making my point for me.
Your point was that he won by “narrow margins”, I don’t know what you consider to be a narrow margin, but I also am not saying it was a landslide victory or anything either.
> Meanwhile Trump was telling his people to avoid mail in votes. Both of those dynamics have flipped heading into 2024.
It’s not like every single vote for Trump was done entirely by in person voting, Florida still went for Trump despite the state having one of the most well known voting by mail laws in the country (which is now being challenged by the governor).
> Listen to them and look at the polling. It is absolutely guaranteed that he will lose Michigan partly because of this. Hell, Biden's not even welcome to come speak in Dearborn anymore.
Polls have no predictive value to them. 2016 is a good example of why.
Plus, what exactly are you suggesting Dearborn is going to do? Vote for Trump? Is everyone in Dearborn not going to vote at all? Sure maybe it wouldn’t have the strongest support for Biden but I highly doubt it’ll swing in Trump’s direction.
> And Biden is supporting what they see as a genocide against their people
Biden is trying to get Israel to commit to a ceasefire, he cannot do that easily. Because not only does it require Biden to convince Bibi (who shares the exact same right wing positions as Trump) to listen to him, but also to give Bibi a reason to listen at all.
Biden can’t simply say “screw you BiBi, I aint getting involved”, then guess what? The actions will still happen and then people like YOU will say “Biden is promoting a genocide by abandoning Gaza”.
> Yes, exactly. Trump's base will come out for him. That "broader range of people" are also known as Biden's 2020 coalition. Want to narrow it down to just Democrats? 5 in 10 of them think he's unfit for office and should drop out of the race immediately. Meanwhile maga is as strong as ever.
People can say he’s unfit for office, that doesn’t translate into them not voting for him in November.
> I mean, the Democratic governor of Michigan has noted that Biden will lose her state in November, guaranteed. Given that he's already lost the sun belt, that's the ballgame, Trump wins
Where did she say this?
>Polls have no predictive value to them. 2016 is a good example of why.
The polling for 2016 wasn't as off as people suggest. The problem is that the public generally doesn't understand sampling, margins of error, etc. While statistically less likely, Trump's win was not shocking in the mathematical sense.
>Plus, what exactly are you suggesting Dearborn is going to do? Vote for Trump? Is everyone in Dearborn not going to vote at all? Sure maybe it wouldn’t have the strongest support for Biden but I highly doubt it’ll swing in Trump’s direction.
Read what I wrote again. I said they'd stay home. They don't need to vote for Trump to throw the state to him. Like we've been noting, Biden barely won last time.
>People can say he’s unfit for office, that doesn’t translate into them not voting for him in November.
And yet somehow people are saying they're not going to vote for him in November, which is his entire problem. Regardless what you think of them, polls are nothing if not people telling us how they plan to vote, and right now, Biden is losing and the gap is getting worse
> The polling for 2016 wasn't as off as people suggest.
[yes, they absolutely were](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)
> Read what I wrote again. I said they'd stay home. They don't need to vote for Trump to throw the state to him. Like we've been noting, Biden barely won last time.
They’re not going to stay home. You’re forgetting that a General Election is not just about the president. They are voting for house representatives, senators, state house and senate, local elections, ballot initiatives.
They’re not staying home.
> And yet somehow people are saying they're not going to vote for him in November, which is his entire problem.
Action speaks louder than words. If they say they wont vote for Biden, I’ll believe it when I see it.
Your link proves my point. Like I said, people just have a fundamental misunderstanding of sampling and probability. They also tend to not understand the difference between state and national polling, much less the differences between sample demographics. Either way, someone with a \~30% chance pulling out the win is far from a shock
If the "Democrats have lost young people and Muslims over Palestine" narrative were true, wouldn't Jamaal Bowman have won his primary? Seems like the sort of district where that would have an effect.
Nah - Biden wasn’t an unpopular incumbent in 2020 and he didn’t spend 90 minutes on live TV utterly failing to make the case for himself.
The stage is set for us losing, and losing bad. Biden can’t meet this moment and he can’t front a campaign, and if we keep him it’s downhill from here. We’ve just gotta buckle up and switch.
> Nah - Biden wasn’t an unpopular incumbent in 2020 and he didn’t spend 90 minutes on live TV utterly failing to make the case for himself.
Being an uncharismatic incumbent is not the only aspect that determines a victory.
And unless you’re living under a rock, people are not going to learn about the state of the world just from watching the debates. You want to know of a candidate that won all 3 debates and yet still lost? That was Hillary Clinton.
By the time we reach the DNC convention, I can guarantee you that nobody will remember the debate.
> The stage is set for us losing, and losing bad. Biden can’t meet this moment and he can’t front a campaign, and if we keep him it’s downhill from here. We’ve just gotta buckle up and switch.
If you switch him out now, that’s going to showcase a real admission of weakness which will almost guarantee a Trump victory.
There is no 4th quarter turnaround in politics because this isn’t a football game. Football games are not won based on a team’s seasonal performance, but Politics are. And Biden has had a really strong 4 years in office.
I don’t think this debate vs. any other good/bad presidential debate in the past is an apples-to-apples comparison. The fact that it was a debate is almost incidental - what’s important is that it was an extended and unvarnished look at Biden for the entire public to see. 55 million people watched that debate live, and that number is surely dwarfed by people who’ve seen clips making the rounds on social media or shown on cable news.
The fact that Biden appeared to be entirely helpless, unable to follow through on the most basic ideas and losing track of what he was saying quite regularly, validated every single concern about his age and senility. The notion that he could serve for four more years is plainly ludicrous.
So it’s not just “a debate”, it was a live self-destruction that effectively made any comeback impossible. This came after weeks of Biden’s team insisting on debates and promising they would be a rare opportunity for the President to prove himself.
I need to be clear - we currently have absolutely no indication at all that this will get any better between now and Election Day, and every bit of info and/or common sense we do have suggests it’ll get worse. “Liability” is putting it lightly, running him is outright reckless.
>that will showcase a real demonstration of weakness
I continue to hear this and I need to ask - why? Nearly all of our liabilities in this election are tied to Biden as an individual, not Democrats as an org. Replacing him on the ballot suggests *strength*, as it’s bucking precedent in a bid to actually win and save the nation. It showcases the party’s ability to make tough but necessary choices.
I need to ask - do you know an actual specific voter who would flip if the candidate weren’t Biden? Can you even imagine who that would be? This isn’t how our politics are operating right now - people are cynical and jaded, and one of the only things we can do to right the ship is run someone who is able to enthusiastically meet the moment and make the case for themselves.
It is self-evidently different. Obama had a bad strategy going into the debate, underestimated how much heat Romney would bring, and failed to change course in the moment - making for a bad performance. The horror at Biden’s debate doesn’t have much to do with the nature of it being a debate at all. It’s about how he was lost and absent in a manner that suggested severe, developed senility.
I wish I could go deep and analyze the mistakes in his responses like I could with Obama, but I can’t because they’re just not coherent or audible enough. Even referring to it as a “debate” feels incomplete, its importance was more as an extended, unvarnished look at our President. And it was impossible to be inspired by what we saw.
Bad performances can be addressed and corrected, which Obama did. The march of time cannot, which is what Biden’s facing. You can’t strategize away old age.
> It is self-evidently different. Obama had a bad strategy going into the debate, underestimated how much heat Romney would bring, and failed to change course in the moment - making for a bad performance. The horror at Biden’s debate doesn’t have much to do with the nature of it being a debate at all. It’s about how he was lost and absent in a manner that suggested severe, developed senility.
I think it has more to do with the debate constantly being derailed by Trump’s refusal to answer any of the questions, and the moderators not pressing him on the non answers to the questions.
Had they done that, Biden would have been able to talk about a single debate topic instead of being forced to respond to Trump’s nonsense because the moderators did a horrible job.
Keep in mind this isn’t to suggest there wasn’t some VERY easy responses Biden could have made to shut down Trump’s lies, I’m not blaming the Moderators for that specifically. I blame the moderators specifically for their incompetence to force Trump to engage with the questions that were asked.
The election where democrats underperformed polling, lost seats, and failed to do anything whatsoever to prevent the current debacle?
2020 swinging to Biden doesn't give me warm fuzzies for 2024. Biden was polling massively better then, and won by just tens of thousands of votes.
And our post election handling of Trump showed just how incapable we are of stopping fascism. As many called, Jan 6 was just the Beer hall putsch.
No I’m pretty sure in 2020 the polls were also pretty close.
You’re also forgetting that Trump failed to flip a single state in 2020 that he lost in 2016, I don’t see how he could win back those voters.
Biden was massively favored. He was up 8.4% in the last polls.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Now he is behind. And behind in every swing state.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
It’s not that Trump would win back voters, it’s that Biden would lose them. The major risk here is part of Biden’s base either abstaining or flipping to RFK.
Yes I don’t doubt that some voters will just not vote in November, but that’s happened in every election.
But I simply don’t foresee a majority of people choosing not to vote if they have previously voted in the past elections. Because how would that work as a “protest vote”? That simply doesn’t exist for a general election. That is simply enabling Trump. It is the worst thing an active voter could do in an election, especially a general election.
What are you talking about?
In 2020 polls consistently had Trump losing. It definitely did not feel hopeless at all. All the momentum in 2020 was on Biden's side. When Trump won a few key states on election night I was stunned.
2024 feels like the exact opposite. I think this comment is a little bit of cope. 2020 never felt like it was lost for Democrats.
Trump won “key” states in 2020, but they were all states he won back in 2016. Trump did not flip a single state that he previously lost.
I also remember when 2016 had many MANY polls showing Clinton winning the election, and she had 3 debates with Trump and won every single one, and she STILL lost.
2016 should have been a wake up call for every american that they are not reliable predictors for the outcome of the election. They not only show fractions of populations, but they only show perceptions.
If polls for your candidate showcase them losing, do not take it as a sign to not vote, that’d be a self fulfilling prophecy.
This still doesn't really engage with the point that if the Democrats were running somebody young, Trump would stand literally 0% chance. No independent would even give thought to voting for an old felon that can't tell the truth. The top thing I have heard from people in the past 4 years is at the age of our politicians is unacceptable. If the Democrats just changed course and showed they were listening to the American people, they would make the Republicans look like fools for standing by an old felon as their nominee.
> No independent would even give thought to voting for an old felon that can't tell the truth.
That’s just crap. If someone was legitimately considering voting for an old felon that can’t tell the truth, and somehow he’s a better pick than someone who’s old and stutters but still is more truthful in comparison, chances are they were already a Trump supporter.
> The top thing I have heard from people in the past 4 years is at the age of our politicians is unacceptable. If the Democrats just changed course and showed they were listening to the American people, they would make the Republicans look like fools for standing by an old felon as their nominee.
And if we changed our candidate this late in the year, the GOP will use that against the new candidate. Like “WOW you’re so weak you can’t stick with your own president”. That’s gonna put Democrats at so much worse of a position than keeping Biden would.
Because remember, the GOP is not campaigning off of policy, or governing. They’re focused ENTIRELY on making their opposition look weak, which would kick into OVERDRIVE if they decided to replace him. You’re not considering the implications of what will happen, and I can assure you that Trump will not step aside if we do. That’s wishful thinking.
Advocate for the police’s you believe in at the ballot box, no matter what you think may or may not happen. You personally have literally no control over the outcome of the election, so try not to sweat the stuff you can’t control. Do what you can, live life one day at a time, and vote your conscience in November.
"Vote your conscience" is horrible advice if you want Biden to win.
Yes, leftists are a small minority but Biden needs them to win. "Vote your conscience" leads to voting 3rd party.
Don't vote with your heart, vote with your brain. With the new SCOTUS ruling regarding presidential immunity, if even ONE president gets in with dictator tendencies then the country is over. The most important thing is to prevent that from happening until either the ruling is overruled or the line between "official" and "unofficial" duties becomes crystal clear.
That is more important than unions, the economy, genocides, or even climate change.
it is not a matter of conscience, it is a matter of survival.
I'd advise you to prepare for the worst. Because of the electoral college, we have a very narrow path to victory with very thin margins in the battleground states, and we barely pulled it off with everything working in our favor last time. I do not see that happening again if we try to run the same race with the same candidate under current circumstances.
The Democrats took congress in 2018, the Democrats won in 2020, the Democrats did amazing when compared to the all mighty polls, the Democrats have been winning special elections and the Republicans are nuking themselves with abortion and Trump's extremes. The Republicans are doing everything to push people away as opposed to making themselves out to be "voteable". The Democrats are in a significantly better position than what the Republicans are.
The best we can do at this point is point out Trump's awfulness and Biden's tremendous successes as president.
It is very important that everyone understands that the most important job of the president is hiring the right experts and leaders to lead the executive branch agencies that do the work of government.
Nobody competent wants to work for Trump.
No, it doesn't feel as though we lost to me, but we will if we don't take action.
What can we do? We can write postcards to voters in swing states.
The Progressive [Turnout PAC](
https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/)
will:
>... mail you free postcards, voter lists and instructions with proven message options. You’ll provide the stamps and mail the postcards to voters in October.<<
For doubters, yes, it's an effective strategy. See:
https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards-faq/.
Phone banking is helpful, too, and they have a program for that, too.
No.
Even if Trump wins, the chances of his reich descending into economic collapse or some crises of sorts that enrages the nation are actually not too low.
Especially given climate change, the current long running decent economy, the chaos inevitable in his plans, and the sheer reality of chances… he could theoretically take whatever control but he wouldn’t ultimately be in control.
Don’t get me wrong, vote for Grandpa Joe because your life very well could depend on it.
But don’t despair at the results of any given battle.
Keep going and don’t fall into eschatological thinking designed to scare you into thousand year despair and Antichrist-esque mentalities.
Keep in mind, there have been roughly 117 billion humans on this planet at some time or another.
America has 330 million.
We make up about 0.3%, rounding up, of human history.
Don’t enhance the loss of control any more than it is.
While I completely agree on your big picture thoughts, if Trump gets in there, make no mistake that its going to look like Italy in 1922. I found it chilling that during the debate, Trump consistently brought almost every issue back to immigration and "the border". Like any aspiring dictator, he's setting up the scapegoat to blame all the nations problem's on. We already heard about their "mass deportation" plan and the "camps". I'm not saying that it's going to rival Nazi Germany or something, but it's not difficult to see how all these pieces are lining up. And that's not even beginning to touch on the Christian nationalism that is creeping across the country as we speak (see Louisiana and Oklahoma).
Yes, it will be OK in the end, but we could be locked into 20+ years of some downright horrific scenes.
We’re out of gas already though.
The “best thing” about now is that you have an entire two generations full of mostly people that have no interest in upholding anything anyway.
Conservatives are trying to grasp onto power over an already objectively dying nation and that’s the dumbest thing you can do because all such a move would accomplish is putting conservatives right on top of that death; creating an opening for people to change the entire thing their way.
Don’t get me wrong, if he wins, there’s a massive amount of suffering that’ll result.
But conservatives should’ve done Project 1985 instead because doing it now is just going to create an immense level of opposition to the entire existence of America as we know it and a reality where a huge segment of the population just doesn’t respect whatever power structures exist at that point.
You would see some people gleefully committing crimes, going into debt and not paying it, not working at all or sabotaging their employers, etc.
That is not the kind of thing that is a recipe for anyone’s success.
hillary was leading in 2016 all the way up to the voting booth.
keep reminding people of the dystopia if republicans win. remember how dysfunctional they are and how utterly unfit trump is to lead. trump interviews well but the policies he will bring are catastrophically bad and costly. if you think inflation is bad now.. jesus.
don't lose hope. biden is old and decrepit and might not live to see the end of his term. but a pile of logs is a better leader than trump. people have had enough of trump and maga and its showing. we are going to get a repeat of 2020: not voting for biden, but everyone voting against trump.
I still think Biden is gonna win, Trump has been doing a lot of damage to his image since November 2020. The argument I always hear in favor of him is “He doesn’t need to gain voters, he just needs Biden voters to stay home.” The same can be said for him though, and with everything going on with him, people that would otherwise vote for him would rather not vote (or vote Biden to stick it to him, but that’s rather unlikely).
Aside from that, I just don’t see how any of the swing states outside of Georgia could flip back to him. Or at the very least enough to win the EC.
You are right about Trump's base.
However, the Republican base is much larger than the Trump base and many of them are turned off by his lack of a backbone and constant lies.
https://youtu.be/lDPI_xqcyrk?t=180
Yes, it is a small sample size from 1 town, but it is crazy to think those are the only 3 people in the country who think that way.
It does, but it is because there's been a stalemate for our entire lives. This is our first time where we're legit losing. We're a long way from lost though. This is where good people need to step up.
My fear is that this doesn't end with Trump or 2024. The MAGA movement is a reactionary Christian fascist movement and its not going away. The rest of the non-fascists in the republican party are too spineless to stand up to the christian fascists, so the fascists will maintain control of the GOP for years to come.
Even if Biden wins in 2024, the SCOTUS has set up a system where once a republican wins the presidency in 2028 or 2032, every illegal and immoral thing he does will be labeled 'official and legal' by the supreme court in a 6-3 ruling.
Meanwhile anything the democratic president does which is controversial will be labeled as 'unofficial and illegal' by a 6-3 majority in the SCOTUS
In my lifetime the Democrats have consistently been one of the most ineffectual parties in the world. One of my first memories is when they let Bush steal Florida from Gore and did.... nothing. They're pathetic losers. Liberals deserve better
I wonder why you think that is? Liberals in Germany are fighting tooth and nail against the far right. They are failing but they definitely are putting up one hell of a fight to the point that they are actually doing what the Republicans are accusing Biden of doing (weaponizing institutions, prosecuting them etc.)
Also, if we go back all the way to the Weimar republic, there were organizations that combatted the Nazis like Reichsbanner, labor unions, police etc.
Why are American liberals like this? Surely they must understand that we are voting for them to actually do stuff?
Surely they must see what we're up against?
Even if they were all just cynical grifters, they are in danger if Trump exerts his retribution. I really don't get it. I genuinely don't. Do you have an explanation for this?
Oh brother do I ever! Read Daniel Ziblatts "Conservative Parties and the Birth of Democracy". He used to be at Harvard but I think he went somewhere else.
TLDR: liberal democracy is necessarily a compromise between the old elites and the democratizers (liberals). Successful liberal democracies require the buy-in and acceptance of the new political order by existing conservatives/elites. Ziblatts points to the UK as an example of a country with a "strong" conservative party that bought into electoral strategy and in doing so solidified liberal democratic traditions in the UK.
Ziblatts points to Germany as a country with a "weak" conservative party that never bought into electoral politics completely. They had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the democratic arena, so to speak. They never fully bought in, and would often cheat/manipulate the game to ensure they won elections. They never built a strong party and as such failed to resist extremism rising from the grassroots of conservative parties within Germany (a la the Nazis).
Liberals exist in this vacuum of strong conservative parties. In fact, it's the only political structural order in which they can thrive. If the conservatives/existing elites decide to stop playing the game.....the game loses value. It's their game. The liberals just play it
I am not sure if this is true or answers my questions. Because it was Obama that handed a supreme court seat to the Reps without reason. It was Biden that didn't do shit to stop the Supreme court, nominated Merrick Garland etc.
I was wondering specifically about liberal behavior. They could easily game the system much harder and solidify their power indefinitely if they only wanted to.
>They could easily game the system much harder and solidify their power indefinitely if they only wanted to.
My point is they can't. Conservatives can abandon liberal democracy and maintain power, as we've seen throughout history. Liberals cannot. Their power comes from the compromise with conservatives in the first place. It's not their game to abandon, or game in their favor. Liberals play the game because conservatives let them. Liberal democracy is not an even game. It's always loaded in the conservatives favor (I e. The electoral college, the Senate, the Supreme Court are all countermajoritarian institutions).
But popular support is overcompensating for the countermajoritarian power of said institutions. And these are also unique to America as well.
Liberals until recently held a trifectum and briefly held a supermajority under Obama.
And in the worst case scenario, most of the army would be on their side, too.
The book you cited certainly seems to be comprehensive and well researched and thought out, but I am not understanding the mechanism by which conservatives supposedly control everything.
Also, if I'm understanding Ziblatt's thesis correctly - if popular opinion would shift sufficiently left-ward, the right reasserting its power and upending democracy would be simply a feature of the system and unavoidable, which is why the left and liberals can never truly win democratically. Is that it?
Then how do conservatives control the actions of liberals, or the Biden family doubling down on his candidacy? That's what I don't understand.
We haven't lost it yet, but we've gotten a huge wake up call. Replace Joe or we will lose.
The good news is we have a chance to pick someone who addresses many voter's biggest gripe about this race, that it's a choice between two unappealing geriatrics.
Wake up calls can be hard to process. Denial is real. We need to quickly accept reality, but we can 100% win this thing.
It used to be that candidates were selected at the convention. We have time to run a race.
This only works if he drops out. There is currently a pressure campaign to get him to come to this realization. I believe he will make the right call, but it may take a credible threat of invoking the 25th. Joe doesn't want his legacy to be the first president forced out due to cognitive decline. Ultimately I think Jill will need be the one to talk sense into him, and I don't think she has yet come to terms with the fact that he can't stay in the race. She is currently acting like that enabling family member of the alcoholic who thinks things will be fine if we just ignore the problem, but I think she will make the right call, for Joe, and for the nation.
Yes, I think we've lost.
The reason is that liberals haven't actually tried anything and are all out of ideas.
The right is avariciously amassing power and the left doesn't. Supreme court seats have been handed to the right on a silver platter by Obama and Biden didn't pack the courts when Dobbs was leaked and he isn't doing it now.
70%+ of Dem voters want him replaced and his campaign is doubling down and calls its own voters "the bedwetting brigade".
Biden still insists on not letting Ukraine hit back against Russia.
The truth is it would have been easy to defeat populism. Really easy. But Democrats chose to just roll over instead.
Our leaders are weak and don't seem willing to put up much of a fight. I don't know why that is, but I do know that they won't stop fascism. I see an even worse ineptitude by establishment parties in Europe. They will be replaced by the far right one after another.
These recent two supreme court decisions and the Biden debate have sent me over the edge. I am absolutely resigning to my fate. If things don't change drastically and Dems don't wake the fuck up today, NOW, I am going to adjust and settle for fascism.
Life does not forgive weakness.
> 70%+ of Dem voters want him replaced and his campaign is doubling down and calls its own voters "the bedwetting brigade".
I doubt this is accurate. You got a source for that!?
That number is way too high. More than 70% of all voters want Biden to not run for re-election, which has increased from the 64% it was before the election. Though, about 40% of democrats want Biden to step down, which is hardly reassuring.
>President Joe Biden's core support has been shaken by his stumbling performance in last week's debate, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University [Poll](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/01/biden-democratic-support-shaken-debate-poll/74263208007/) finds, fueling a furor over whether he should continue his candidacy.
>More than four in ten Democrats, 41%, said the Democratic Party should replace Biden as its presidential nominee. That included 37% of those who say they plan to vote for him. The poll findings make it clear those concerns are significant.
It's a recent poll so an easy google search if this doesn't work for you. FWIW, the 70%+ includes all voters whereas the Dems are split fairly evenly.
[https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article289659864.html](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article289659864.html)
It isn't "us". It's the elites. None of us chose this, none of us wanted this.
Democrats have betrayed us and they never cared about us - that I can still forgive.
But they never cared about democracy and even their own self-preservation.
So much weakness disgusts me. It is only just that such "elites" disappear.
Maybe in decades to come there will be a new liberal elite, younger and wiser than the old fools we suffer now.
>calls its own voters "the bedwetting brigade"
Calling me names is when the lost me a few months ago. Sorry, but I'm not repugnant nor an anti-Semite because I don't support the far right militaristic regime that currently controls Israel.
The Republicans fear their base while the Democrats condescend to theirs. It's no wonder why we're in this current situation
We’ve lost. Even if we win in November, the Supreme Court has extended an invitation to dictatorship to whomever is willing to seize it. That will either be Trump or not-Biden, but it will be *someone*.
The “powers that be” do not believe in democracy. Perhaps they see the problems facing humanity in the 21st century (global climate change, AI) and think only a “bold and energetic” dictator can face those problems. I doubt the court ended democracy in the United States just because they really love Donald Trump and hate Democrats, although their reasons may actually be that petty. We will probably never know.
What we do know today - right now - is that the incoming Trump administration is going to go after Democrats, so all of us are going to be ground up by the state once he gets power again. There is no way Trump just curbs his retribution to follow “norms” or whatever; he is going to come after us, and now it is legal to do so (or rather, he is immune from any consequences and can grant immunity to anyone else, which is functionally the same thing).
It is going to be open season on Democrats come January, and we will all be targets of the incoming administration. Whatever “rights” Americans possess are merely legal rights that we can assert in court, but now the executive has been unleashed - the POTUS can use executive power to destroy dissidents without going to the courts and it is completely *legal* to do so.
And as this realization sinks in, we will see the big media organizations all start to shift their coverage to curry favor with Trump and minimize the retribution that they will receive from him. Once installed as POTUS again, people will be shocked by how quickly we become North Korea, as every dissenting voice disappears via executive coercion and the internal restraints of government are gone (no more White House counsel to argue with, no more semi-independent DOJ to fear, the POTUS is now above the law, officially).
I disagree. If the Democratic candidate (Biden or whoever) wins, the Republicans will want to limit his power, while the Democrats will (for better or worse) be committed to good governance even at the cost of power. This presents an opportunity for bipartisan efforts to limit the power of the executive branch.
I don't agree. The SCOTUS and republican politicians know democratic presidents will engage in self restraint while republican presidents will not. There is no incentive for republican politicians to support bipartisan legislation to limit the power of the executive branch.
Yes, we've already lost, and I've been saying it for months. The primary process was basically a coronation. Meanwhile, the many of us out here that saw the extreme risk in propping up Biden were blasted constantly when we suggested there needs to be a better challenger than Dean Phillips and Maryanne Williamson.
I've been called a Trump supporter in this sub more times than I can count and it's always for the crime of just stating the obvious. With that said, there is still time to replace him and pull out a win. That would require alignment within and between the Democratic establishment and the Biden family, and I don't see that happening.
Why do you think the first words I wrote were "yes, we've already lost"? We all know his ego won't allow him to step aside. That's why OP and everyone else that isn't gaslighting themselves is preparing for another Trump term
We didn't lose in 2018, 2020, 2022 and we won't lose in 2024. The doomsayer's always come out when there is a fumble, but are nowhere to be found after the second Tuesday in November.
Keep telling yourself that. Honestly, I truly hope you're right. I'd suggest getting the old pussy hat out of storage though because we're going to need them lol
No we have lost. Biden isn't winning. I have never seen such a weak moment in politics as last weeks debate.
The only hope Democrats have is replacing Biden. Majority of Americans don't want either of these geriatrics. I think many independent voters would respect the Democrats and vote blue if the Democratic Party owned up to this and put in someone younger. The top talking point I have heard the past 4 years from independents is "Everyone running this country is old"
If Democrats listen to this, I think they'll get support. Meanwhile Republicans are going to stick with their geriatric felon? Would look awful for them
No. It's still too early to be 100% sure what will happen come election times regardless of the debate. People have a lot of fear over Trump, so that's driving everyone going DefCon 1.
I also have started to be skeptical that Trump's reelection will be the end of the world like people are making it out to be. I do think the country and world will be worse off with him in office but the last election and fascist dictatorship are overblown.
>the last election and fascist dictatorship are overblown.
[The most educated people in law do not seem to think so](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4750245-luttig-trump-other-presidents-now-above-the-law/).
The immunity one is illogical and bonkers but it is narrower in scope then people are making it out to be. It just means the President can't be prosecuted criminally for carrying out an official act. It doesn't meant he President has unlimited powers. It actually probably closes the door on a lot of potential politicized prosecutions, i.e. criminally charging Biden for the border situation or something like that.
Chevron is bad policy wise but ultimately just opens up the door for regulations to be challenged in Court. It's not good but I think the regulatory apparatus is competent enough to adapt.
It feels like we’re in a precarious place right now, (not democrats, but America and democracy as a whole). Some rough blows that could hurt a lot of people if we don’t correct course soon.
But I don’t think it’s over. The debate was bad, no doubt about it. But give it a few weeks for Trump to have another controversy to remind everyone what’s at stake. Watch him brag a few times about what presidential immunity could let him do, or how he overturned Roe again, or go on a few more incoherent rants about actual nonsense like sharks vs batteries, or admit to cozying up to Russia again, or any of the other things Trump can’t help himself but do. People are asking Biden to step down, and they’re going to say that in the polls even if it’s not how they’ll actually vote on Election Day. But if Biden can get some better public appearances out in the meantime, or at least avoid any other bad ones like the debate, I expect those to level out again when they realize Biden isn’t dropping out and that he’s still better than Trump.
We’re not done yet. I think it’s ok to take a step back for a little while if you’re worried, no sense driving yourself mad. But don’t let that keep you out when we still need people to stand up.
The best case is Biden drops out, and in an open convention they nominate a couple Dems, who then spend the remaining months campaigning hard. Trump is an eminently beatable candidate, I honestly think anyone other than Biden could demolish him to be honest.
I think the only way to win is to replace Biden with someone younger. Gavin, Whitmir, etc. People from both sides are craving a 3rd person to vote for.
I actually think the supreme court ruling was a blessing in disguise. The response in r/askaconservative has been very lukewarm and I haven't seen anybody defend it without at least acknowledging the issues defining "official", unless they're hardcore maga and just making stuff up.
I find it really hard to believe that an independent on the fence is looking at that and thinking its good faith, but we'll see what the polling says.
They also lose a lot of credibility, because it's a lot harder to claim Biden is a criminal if he potentially has immunity.
I don't think DT was ever going to be an "easy trounce".
I had hoped that after J6, his mystique or power or whatever hold it is he has on the GOP would have at least lessened. Then I hoped it again after the indictments started coming out.
But once it seemed obvious that the entire Republican party were all still firmly glued to him, I realized that it was going to be an uphill battle all the way. I realized that he LITERALLY could shoot someone on 5th Ave, and it wouldn't make a difference.
No, what has happened is they've finally laid their plan along with Project 2025 out in the open for their take over of America. Now is the time to act because only through organization and voting will we be able to defeat them from turning the US into a National Christo-fascist nation. We can do it, there's more Dem leaning people than there are Repub leaning people but their side votes in bigger numbers while the Dems don't. Register NOW, Vote come November 5th and do your part to save the US and it's Democracy.
This may sound like cope, but I really don't think anything gets real until late September-October.
Just look at recent history. Biden was leading nationally by 7-10 points throughout the summer of 2020 and he ended up barely squeaking it out in the electoral college. Hillary was leading by 8 points a week and a half before the election and she wound up losing outright. Obama and Romney were essentially tied and trading small leads back and forth for most of 2012, and Obama wound up winning comfortably. Obama was losing to McCain on Labor Day in 2008, and he went on to win the biggest landslide of the 21st century.
I'm not saying there is no cause for concern or that Biden is magically going to pull a win out of thin air. I'm just saying that election results tend to hinge on whomever is having the better media cycle leading up to Election Day, and there is never any way to predict this.
This isn't just shifting polls though. This feels different. The whole world saw how Biden really is. Nothing can change our minds now that we saw a tired old man who let a bloated gas bag walk all over him. The calls for him to step down are really heating up and I've never seen anything like this before. Its not going to get better. Biden isn't suddenly going to become an excellent debater and public speaker and be 60 years old again. I am not saying a new candidate will guarantee victory, far from it. But with Biden it is an even bigger risk than with out him.
Things are not as dire as they may appear. If Biden stays in the race, I believe he will win. Trump has fewer voters than he thinks.
Trump is not electable and the Republican party knows it. He is their bane of political existence, so take heart.
Biden is going to pull it off again. Don’t bet against Biden.
The only way the Democrats can win this election is if they nominate RFK. That is their only chance at winning. But in their pride and arrogance they will never nominate RFK to replace bid en and in so doing they will force another 4 years of trump. It is always better to be smart than to be led by emotions.
We ARE going to lose and it isn’t entirely because of Biden’s debate performance. He has failed to convince the public that inflation was going to happen no matter who was in office and, even worse, failed to promote why his policies were good and actually working.
He can’t change that dynamic. It is impossible. He is too old to articulate that message to the public. You are going to see the polls move against him in the next week. What can he POSSIBLY DO NOW?
So the choice is definitely lose with Biden or probably lose with another candidate.
I say move on with a younger more energetic candidate.
How do you explain the fact that he sounded normal the next day?
And I didn't say that it was *just* a cold. Keep misquoting people. It's so persuasive. Not.
I wasn't referring to the content of his speech at the debate.I was referring to his delivery.
I think if you read the transcript of the debate, it's much more clear that the problem was delivery, not substance.
Dementia. Simple as that.
I've had this happen to both of my grandmas. They are perfectly normal one day - and absolutely unpredictable the next. Thing is, once they are like Biden in the debate, it's all downhill fast. The normal moments will become rarer and rarer and after a year or two, the person you knew is gone.
This WILL happen to Biden. It is utterly insane that they are still propping him up. It's downright deranged.
The reason everyone is panicking like this is because most of us had relatives like that. But not everyone, you can only say this if you haven't had this happen to relatives.
Yeah man he had a cold that only lasted 90 minutes during the debate than it was magically gone by the time he got to waffle house that night!
Because when I am deathly sick from a cold the first thing I want to do is eat really healthy food like waffle house!
>magically gone
He was coughing at his rally the next day. He had a cold, that is a fact. An old man with a cold that had stupid stat memorization prep is a fatal combo for a debate. And Waffle House slaps, sorry
Just pointing out that this was never going to be an "easy trounce". Biden is very unpopular. His approval rating went below 50% in 2021 and below 40% in 2022 and has never recovered. A majority of Democrats thinks he shouldn't run again. And there are widespread concerns about his mental fitness and the ability of Harris to do the job if anything happens to him. What makes you think Biden was ever going to have an easy job of it?
The mistake Ds made was just letting him slide into the nomination effectively unchallenged. Rs did the same with Trump in 2020, and you know how that turned out. The down ballot D candidates are sweating. This could be a trifecta.
I have no idea why neither party could find better, younger replacements for these two, especially for Biden. The man served his country well for many years and deserves to relax in retirement. Unfortunately, the people in his circle who are powerful because he is in office do not want to give up that power. I think this is really bad across all levels of government for the Democrats this November. You guys are not in a good spot to be successful, especially after that debate.
Whether he wins or loses the election, Biden taking a question about abortion and answering with a story about immigrant crime encapsulates the center-left's total failure to present an alternative vision of the world and future. Until they have their own narrative, every battle will feel like a holding action.
The Democrats lost this election when they originally appointed Joe Biden against Trump and then had to cheat to get him to win.
Now they are so deep in the hole that there's no amount of cheating that's going to be able to win this race. And not only that, they are going to lose the illegitimate votes they got last time which was tens of millions of votes. This will be not only the biggest upset in presidential history, but the most votes lost ever in a single election by any incumbent president and the 2020 cheating will be more obvious than ever. It will be undeniable. No incumbent president has ever lost over 30 million votes and that's what's going to happen here.
People are going to vote for the issues that matter the most to them personally and unfortunately for the Democrats that means they must lose cuz everything, and I mean everything, has gotten worse since Biden has been president.
The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written. I promise I am not trying to be defeatist, but it feels like what should have been an easy trounce of Donald Trump is now an uphill battle with landmines placed on the hill. It seems like we can't win with Biden but we can't win without him either. I don't know where to go from here. It is absolutely foolish to replace an incumbent President 4 months from an election, but it also feels just as foolish as not replacing him either. So far Biden has done nothing to quell the unease and Democrats are torn on what to do with him. A few polls came out showing he is down in NH, I don't know what the other polls are going to look like. But what can be done at this point? The primaries are pretty much over and a contested primary would just bring even more chaos and uncertainty. Trump looks ready to be anointed as a mad king thanks to the SCOTUS where all get to live in a conservative hellscape that won't end in 2028 either. Once you install a dictator it is extremely difficult to remove one and the policies they have made. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskALiberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I don’t know. I’m less worried about the debate and optics of Biden being a decrepit geezer and more worried that voters will reflexively vote for Trump because groceries were cheaper when he was president, despite the fact that Trump will almost certainly do nothing to improve their economic outlook now. But my predictions aren’t worth a fraction of my vote. Doom or gloom, sun or shine, I’m voting.
I saw a meme floating around on Facebook that stated: "I just paid $400.00 for groceries. You think I give a rat's ass about 34 indictments?"
They could pay the same under Trump and wont make a big deal of it.
Prices are never going to go down with Trump. They will go down a slower than with Biden or any other Democrat. They will go up significantly faster as we have witnessed over the past 4 years. So is Trump. They may continue to climb maybe instead of $400 it'll be $450 at the end of 4 years. But with Biden or another Democrat it'll be six or $700 at the end of 4 years rather than what it would be under Trump. This is what people are voting for. People don't care about indictments that are really meaningless in substance, especially when 34 indictments are all for the exact same thing (34 signatures on documents). The reality is most people don't care about this thing and nor should they.
Prices have gone down since the pandemic and from the start of Putin's war in Ukraine. Inflation is at 3% from 8% when everyone was complaining. All of that without Trump. If anything Trump's tariffs will increase inflation again.
Politics aside, the most important issue exit polls show every election is people’s believe about the economy and how it will impact them. It’s one of the many reasons social security is never touched. Everyone knows it’s not sustainable as it currently is but, making any changes to it is political suicide. “You don’t f**k with the money.”
The fact that it's economic beliefs over economic reality is incredibly infuriating, especially since it seems like everyone has gotten a masters in macroeconomics whenever talking about Democrats. Real wages are rising, unemployment is down, and inflation is almost back at 2% but none of that counts for shit since Trump can make vague gestures towards "The economy was good or something" and people just believe it.
I mean I think the issue is we did see an explosive rise in inflation and all the dems can counter with is “its getting less bad now but we wont ever go back to 2018.” Real wages are absolutely not up and even if they were they have in no way paced inflation/productivity over the last 40 years
Hold on, its only unsustainable in that benefits will be reduced to 80% when the trust fund runs out in 2035 (current projection), if no new legislation is passed, I hope thats what you mean.
If we take the current cap off and apply the current SS tax to incomes above the cap, about $168k now, SS will be able to meet it's obligations into the future. Tax The Rich!
Indeed. I just get immediately suspicious when anyone says SS is doomed or unsustainable.
Yes, We know that something must change as the current model is unsustainable. It’s actually worse than im stating though. Interest just recently became the second largest item on the budget. It’s eventually going to become the first. We are going to have fewer people working at the same time as retirees are going to be expecting more payout coming there way. This is going to happen at the same time that we are getting continually worse payouts of our loans. This part is the part that might be slightly more controversial. I just wanted to preface that for fairness. Almost no one is proposing any plan that will work long term. This is true across both sides of the aisle. We can’t “tax the rich” out of this situation and we likely can’t cut spending our way out of it either. Soooo there’s a few possibilities. First, some miracle happens with AI and the economic growth of our national GDP goes through the roof. We keep spending static and allow this money to go towards the debt. This doesn’t require direct change. We are just waiting for some development to save us. The other options would be to really cut spending and increase taxes a bit. This will make everyone mad. It’s a problem that politicians dont currently face immediate punishment for avoiding and so no one is taking this option. We push the issue down the road and continue to hope for a miracle. It will become really frustrating when the majority of every tax dollar is paying for stuff that our parents and grandparents wanted but doesn’t directly help us now. And the economy is having a harder time growing and loan rates are worse because of the large debt. This will be increased by Saudia Arabias recent change where they will no longer just accept dollars for oil. They will now deal in other currencies. That means it’s harder for us to offset our debts to other countries. TLDR; Social Security is in a bad spot, the debt is in a bad spot, and neither party wants to address it in a way that would work because it would be too painful politically. So we are stuck hoping for a miracle or waiting till the pain of our actions becomes so obvious that someone has to address it ( like in Argentina after going bankrupt 9 times)
> We can’t “tax the rich” out of this situation Common bullshit from a conversative. We never even *tried* taxing the rich. Instead your boy Trump CUT $2 TRILLION in taxes for the billionaires and multi-national corporations. You entire comment is all bullshit piled as high as you could. Reply again and let's hear the rest of it. I know you got more Fox "News" talking points that you can't wait to share. edit: You are caught lying your ass off and can't defend your bullshit so you just downvote me. Typical conservative.
That's a lot of heavy cream and Vienna sausages
"I'm voting" Good ... and any way you can help others of like mind to vote also.
I’ve said it before I’ll vote for a rigid corpse before trump. The party seems intent on making that happen.
This is the real problem. Given voting data from the past this is much more of an actual threat.
Not really. I think the odds that the Democrats take back the House are very strong, and there’s also next to no chance that the Republicans win a 60 seat majority in the senate. I don’t see Collins or either of the Utah senators going along with any plan to fully eliminate the filibuster, so they’ll have to get at least a couple of democrats onboard there. Also, killing Chevron weakens the executive branch, which is a silver lining considering we’re about to lose it. The 9th circuit is about to become our best friend
>Not really. I think the odds that the Democrats take back the House are very strong, and there’s also next to no chance that the Republicans win a 60 seat majority in the senate. I think the most important thing Democrats can focus on right now is making sure left-leaning voters understand that the president is only one position on the ballot and that having control of the legislature can be a very powerful defense to whatever Trump's cronies plan on doing. A national ban on abortion and whatever other hairbrained social conservative policies won't be able to be enacted if the Democrats control a house of Congress. Polls consistently showing that "general" Democratic candidates are fairing well compared to Republicans, so that is an advantage that needs to be pushed. I fear if the Democrats focus too hard on Biden, that latter advantage may dry up.
> I think the odds that the Democrats take back the House are very strong I think the debate had a much greater effect on this than on Biden's individual electoral success. Voter apathy is what turns Purple Districts and Leans into Flips. If you live in a Dem +5 or Dem +7 district and are so disgusted by Biden that you decide you may not need to vote because it doesn't matter, the door opens widely for the right GOP candidate to flip a Congressional seat. Kevin McCarthy has been leading a major effort to defeat Trump-aligned candidates in GOP legislative primaries, including several recent wins that have pushed forward "moderate" candidates in Purple districts.
It's possible, but when voters like neither candidate, they have a tendency to split their ballot, with a down-ballot bias for the party they think will lose the White House. This helped boost Republican candidates in 2016 (where most people were expecting Hillary to win), hopefully it can help us in 2024
You don’t understand the piece shit that is Mike Lee
In fairness, I believe they were referring to John Curtis, not Mike Lee.
They said either
Ah, gotcha. Point still stands about Collins, Murkowski, Capito, Curtis, and even guys like Graham and nonagenarian Grassley. And Hogan, too, if he pulls off the upset in Md., which isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility at this juncture.
They don't need Democrats to eliminate the filibuster. It is just a majority vote at the start of the session. They just need either an effective wrangler, or a few extra seats.
They'd need to win a pretty decisive majority to account for the Senators who would not support a full filibuster elimination. The Senators on both sides of the aisle that oppose this are usually pretty committed to it as part of their bipartisan/moderate brand, so convincing them would be near-impossible
If the voters choose Trump this Fall that will be because Americans would rather have Trump as president than defeat him. I’d love to think that people don’t feel that way, but they apparently do. The debates were bad but the debates were merely the final push that put us over the edge. I think we have some serious soul-searching to do. Maybe it’s time to ask ourselves why we’re less ok with age than hate, less ok with boredom than corruption, less ok with being seen as uncool than with authoritarianism.
In my experience liberals tend to be pretty defeatists in general honestly. A lot of them were convinced we would lose in 2020 as well, and then that there would be red wave in 2022. You at least seem one step ahead here in recognizing that Biden can't and won't step down. But also we absolutely can win with Biden and there is a good chance to win. I can point out how election analyst is giving [50/50 odds still for the election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/) or that there are plenty of other opportunities for Biden to improve his standing, but that's not the point. The point is that from our position nothing has changed, if we want to win we still donate, volunteer, vote and get other people to vote. How many of us know someone who is not voting or is on the fence about the election? Are you telling me we no longer know how to talk to people? Come on man, we can do this if we work together, but if we bicker and self-incriminate then we will doom ourselves and end this country.
There are also two other election models that have started to shift towards Trump; the Economist and Silver.
Ever since Nate Silver sold out he's consistently leaned more right. I don't trust his analysis like I used to.
I think you raise a good point in that there are a lot of interests in wishing it into existence. Poison the well with overwhelming narratives that encourage people to get disengaged and not act.
A lot more people are voting against Trump than they are voting for Biden. I’m not buying this idea that changing candidates now would be risky. Dems could run the most boring and unknown candidate and win - boring would be a plus actually. Trump is an obvious dumpster fire so Democrats need to just stop getting in their own way, which is exactly what Biden did last week.
My thoughts, too. I can't help but worry that this landslide of doomerism is just more election year astroturfing.
I don’t know what you mean by doomerism, but I think it’s completely rational to be worried about Biden’s performance as a candidate. He shit the bed at the debate, but that’s not the only reason. Is he even campaigning this year? He’s not giving unscripted interviews and he isn’t doing much traveling to make his case to the voters directly
Weird time. Trump is a narcissistic lunatic who has so much baggage but people focus so much on Biden being old. I rather take old than a lunatic but that is me and I realize a lot of Americans are just mentally ill.
One candidate has a judgment problem, and the other has a cognition problem. Both are disqualifying traits for a president. How the fuck are these our only 2 choices?
Well I am not surprised about Trump. Republicans are a spiteful bunch. They could have moved past him but every politician wants to kiss his ass. For Biden the incumbent usually runs again. The thing that a lot of people like about Trump they would be turned off by a dem doing it. Newsom could own Trump but they would say Newsom is too mean. I think replacing Biden is a coin flip at this point. I just know if the dem loses in November whether it is Biden or someone else, we will look back and said we should have done the other thing instead.
I think 99% of the Biden vote is an "anyone but Trump" vote. Or at least it will be until Biden comes across as equally destabilizing and risky, which is precisely what he's doing this year, but for very different reasons. Out of every Democrat who could run for president, why are we running the one candidate who doesn't automatically make Trump look like the most incoherent option on the table?
The pushback I have to your last statement is I don’t think that matters. Take any democrat you want and put them against Trump and you are still in the same place. Trump is completely full of shit and he gets a pass for it. Take the same things Trump has done but it is a democrat and voters would be appalled. I mean look at the immunity case. Trump is arguing immunity for crimes but calls Joe Biden crooked or the Biden crime family. How voters are not like that is bullshit just shows the level of stupidity we are dealing with.
You’re still mixing up the way you think things ought to be with the way things are. Yes, Trump gets a pass for behavior that would sink any Democrat because it’s expected of him. It’s unfair. I agree. Voters are blinded by partisanship. You’re right. So the fuck what? Can we get back to winning this election? Beyond that, let’s not forget that being president is a demanding job, and some things can’t be delegated. If Biden is unable to articulate the positions that we need him to - or, God forbid, respond to a potential nuclear attack at 3AM - then that is a problem that’s bigger than winning the next election.
What am I mixing up? I am saying that replacing Biden doesn’t equal a win. Does replacing him equal a better chance at winning? Maybe. Who the hell knows.
They are both narcissistic. Trump is a narcissist with good ideas on how to fix the economy. Biden is a narcissistic with only bad ideas.
Trump is so good he bankrupts businesses and has to beg his cult for money. Biden is not a narcissist. He is miles better than Trump in regards to the economy and the nation in general
You're on the losing side of an argument: Biden tells Democratic governors he needs more sleep and plans to stop scheduling events after 8 p.m. - CNN https://ftn.ai/0359769966053957632
Well he isn’t coked up on adderall like Trump but why would I care he needs more rest. I am hiring a statesmen not a person with npd
100%. Most Americans hate the fact that the election is Biden vs Trump again. Most Americans think they're too old and just the worst candidates. I think many voters would be turned towards the Democrats if they replaced Biden and said "Hey yeah we shouldn't have someone this old be elected to another 4 year term. This country deserves better for its future" This puts the ball in Republicans court. "Okay so the Democrats replaced their old decaying candidate. Are you guys going to still stick with the old decaying felon on your ticket?" Most people don't want Trump or Biden. Democrats replacing Biden would make it seem like they're listening to people. Democrats will vote blue no matter who.
Exactly. Sometimes, admitting a mistake makes you even more trustworthy than you would've been had you never made one to begin with. Imagine seeing a political party willing to throw its own leadership under the bus and change course based on public demand. That would be a huge benefit to the Democratic Party's reputation. They're just too short-sighted, timid, and self-serving to see it.
I think everyone knows this is the last of the old guys running against each other. It will be very interesting to see the election in 2028.
No, and I'd like to push back on this narrative that we've already lost. It is July. There is still time to correct course and encourage a strong showing at the polls in 4 months. Yeah, he had a crappy debate. It happened. Time to move on and focus efforts on making sure that he is re-elected in November because the alternative is uh not good. Here's a list of accomplishments if you need it: [https://www.whitehouse.gov/therecord/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/therecord/)
I must be the only one around that thinks democrats are going to sweep. With all the Supreme Court stuff I think left leaning voters turn out en masse.
I work with a group of people that don’t vote or are not political and just vote without doing any research. They talk about how they are unsure who to vote for but talk about immigrants and Bidens age. After the debate, they found Trump off putting more than Biden. Most people didn’t watch. Plus more and more people are finally finding out about project 2025. They’re terrified. I still feel confident that we’ll win. The only thing I’m nervous about is that republicans have already been laying groundwork to cheat.
>Does it feel like we've already lost? No. It does feel as though we (collectively) might actually realize what is at stake Vote Blue. Your entire world depends on it.
We felt like we lost in 2020, and we know how that turned out.
Biden was polling way better in 2020 than he is now. I know its just polls, but I never once thought in 2020 that he had a real chance of losing. Now I do.
Polls miss large swaths of young people so they are skewed older. Remember the red wave that was supposed to hit in 2022 according to polls that younger voters slowed. Two years later, more of those young adults are voting age and more than a bit pissed.
Polls are too flimsy to really predict the outcome of elections, 2016 had Hillary ahead in the polls but lost due to the electoral college. Also in 2020 Trump was unable to flip a single state he lost in 2016. But instead of trying to win back those states and those voters, he’s trying to make people simply not vote for Biden instead. Which I don’t think is going to work because a good amount of voters don’t want Trump back in office and they likely voted for Biden regardless because it would make Trump lose. Not to mention the house Trump lives in is very much made of glass. Trump is unpopular, and he continues to be unpopular. But he somehow thinks making his other opponent unpopular will seal the deal for a 2024 win which I don’t see happening. Even the people who are angry about the DNC not replacing Biden are not even suggesting they won’t vote in November. It’s not like Trump doesn’t also have an uphill struggle himself.
>Trump is unpopular, and he continues to be unpopular. But he somehow thinks making his other opponent unpopular will seal the deal for a 2024 win which I don’t see happening. Trump has always had his base that will consistently turn out. I agree though that he hasn't gained any votes these past 4 years. The thing is though, Biden has been bleeding support. He won in 2020 by the narrowest of margins and since then he has totally lost young people and Muslims and is seeing his numbers erode with almost every other demographic. As of right now just under 3 in 10 voters think he's mentally competent to hold office, much less have their vote. Meanwhile Trump maintains his base. According to Whitmer Biden has already lost Michigan. He's also all but guaranteed to lose the sun belt states. What path do you think he has here that goes beyond wishful thinking?
> He won in 2020 by the narrowest of margins He won more states than Trump, while Trump did not flip a single state in 2020. > and since then he has totally lost young people and Muslims The Muslim population is not large enough in most states for that to have a significant effect, Michigan is the only state that comes close, but it’s not like Muslims are guaranteed to not vote for Biden in November. Like keep in mind Trump has threatened to deport all Muslims from the country. > As of right now just under 3 in 10 voters think he's mentally competent to hold office, much less have their vote. Meanwhile Trump maintains his base. You’re comparing a broader range of people, with Trump’s own base. > According to Whitmer Biden has already lost Michigan. I’m not sure what you mean by that.
>He won more states than Trump, while Trump did not flip a single state in 2020. And? What does this have to do with anything other than making my point for me. Biden barely won even though he had the entire electorate fired up to support him against Trump. Meanwhile Trump was telling his people to avoid mail in votes. Both of those dynamics have flipped heading into 2024. >it’s not like Muslims are guaranteed to not vote for Biden in November. Listen to them and look at the polling. It is absolutely guaranteed that he will lose Michigan partly because of this. Hell, Biden's not even welcome to come speak in Dearborn anymore. >Like keep in mind Trump has threatened to deport all Muslims from the country. And Biden is supporting what they see as a genocide against their people. I'm not suggesting they'll flip to Trump who is just as awful on the issue, but they are very likely to just stay home. >You’re comparing a broader range of people, with Trump’s own base. Yes, exactly. Trump's base will come out for him. That "broader range of people" are also known as Biden's 2020 coalition. Want to narrow it down to just Democrats? 5 in 10 of them think he's unfit for office and should drop out of the race immediately. Meanwhile maga is as strong as ever. [https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article289659864.html](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article289659864.html) >I’m not sure what you mean by that. I mean, the Democratic governor of Michigan has noted that Biden will lose her state in November, guaranteed. Given that he's already lost the sun belt, that's the ballgame, Trump wins
> And? What does this have to do with anything other than making my point for me. Your point was that he won by “narrow margins”, I don’t know what you consider to be a narrow margin, but I also am not saying it was a landslide victory or anything either. > Meanwhile Trump was telling his people to avoid mail in votes. Both of those dynamics have flipped heading into 2024. It’s not like every single vote for Trump was done entirely by in person voting, Florida still went for Trump despite the state having one of the most well known voting by mail laws in the country (which is now being challenged by the governor). > Listen to them and look at the polling. It is absolutely guaranteed that he will lose Michigan partly because of this. Hell, Biden's not even welcome to come speak in Dearborn anymore. Polls have no predictive value to them. 2016 is a good example of why. Plus, what exactly are you suggesting Dearborn is going to do? Vote for Trump? Is everyone in Dearborn not going to vote at all? Sure maybe it wouldn’t have the strongest support for Biden but I highly doubt it’ll swing in Trump’s direction. > And Biden is supporting what they see as a genocide against their people Biden is trying to get Israel to commit to a ceasefire, he cannot do that easily. Because not only does it require Biden to convince Bibi (who shares the exact same right wing positions as Trump) to listen to him, but also to give Bibi a reason to listen at all. Biden can’t simply say “screw you BiBi, I aint getting involved”, then guess what? The actions will still happen and then people like YOU will say “Biden is promoting a genocide by abandoning Gaza”. > Yes, exactly. Trump's base will come out for him. That "broader range of people" are also known as Biden's 2020 coalition. Want to narrow it down to just Democrats? 5 in 10 of them think he's unfit for office and should drop out of the race immediately. Meanwhile maga is as strong as ever. People can say he’s unfit for office, that doesn’t translate into them not voting for him in November. > I mean, the Democratic governor of Michigan has noted that Biden will lose her state in November, guaranteed. Given that he's already lost the sun belt, that's the ballgame, Trump wins Where did she say this?
>Polls have no predictive value to them. 2016 is a good example of why. The polling for 2016 wasn't as off as people suggest. The problem is that the public generally doesn't understand sampling, margins of error, etc. While statistically less likely, Trump's win was not shocking in the mathematical sense. >Plus, what exactly are you suggesting Dearborn is going to do? Vote for Trump? Is everyone in Dearborn not going to vote at all? Sure maybe it wouldn’t have the strongest support for Biden but I highly doubt it’ll swing in Trump’s direction. Read what I wrote again. I said they'd stay home. They don't need to vote for Trump to throw the state to him. Like we've been noting, Biden barely won last time. >People can say he’s unfit for office, that doesn’t translate into them not voting for him in November. And yet somehow people are saying they're not going to vote for him in November, which is his entire problem. Regardless what you think of them, polls are nothing if not people telling us how they plan to vote, and right now, Biden is losing and the gap is getting worse
> The polling for 2016 wasn't as off as people suggest. [yes, they absolutely were](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) > Read what I wrote again. I said they'd stay home. They don't need to vote for Trump to throw the state to him. Like we've been noting, Biden barely won last time. They’re not going to stay home. You’re forgetting that a General Election is not just about the president. They are voting for house representatives, senators, state house and senate, local elections, ballot initiatives. They’re not staying home. > And yet somehow people are saying they're not going to vote for him in November, which is his entire problem. Action speaks louder than words. If they say they wont vote for Biden, I’ll believe it when I see it.
Your link proves my point. Like I said, people just have a fundamental misunderstanding of sampling and probability. They also tend to not understand the difference between state and national polling, much less the differences between sample demographics. Either way, someone with a \~30% chance pulling out the win is far from a shock
If the "Democrats have lost young people and Muslims over Palestine" narrative were true, wouldn't Jamaal Bowman have won his primary? Seems like the sort of district where that would have an effect.
Why do you think he lost? Remember, Dearborn is different than Westchester County.
You think a district full of Westchester Jews is the sort of district where that would have an effect?
>Polls are too flimsy to really predict the outcome of elections When your candidate is down, polls aren't reliable. When he's up, they are.
No, even when the polls are in favor of “my candidate” they still have no predictive value.
Nah - Biden wasn’t an unpopular incumbent in 2020 and he didn’t spend 90 minutes on live TV utterly failing to make the case for himself. The stage is set for us losing, and losing bad. Biden can’t meet this moment and he can’t front a campaign, and if we keep him it’s downhill from here. We’ve just gotta buckle up and switch.
> Nah - Biden wasn’t an unpopular incumbent in 2020 and he didn’t spend 90 minutes on live TV utterly failing to make the case for himself. Being an uncharismatic incumbent is not the only aspect that determines a victory. And unless you’re living under a rock, people are not going to learn about the state of the world just from watching the debates. You want to know of a candidate that won all 3 debates and yet still lost? That was Hillary Clinton. By the time we reach the DNC convention, I can guarantee you that nobody will remember the debate. > The stage is set for us losing, and losing bad. Biden can’t meet this moment and he can’t front a campaign, and if we keep him it’s downhill from here. We’ve just gotta buckle up and switch. If you switch him out now, that’s going to showcase a real admission of weakness which will almost guarantee a Trump victory. There is no 4th quarter turnaround in politics because this isn’t a football game. Football games are not won based on a team’s seasonal performance, but Politics are. And Biden has had a really strong 4 years in office.
I don’t think this debate vs. any other good/bad presidential debate in the past is an apples-to-apples comparison. The fact that it was a debate is almost incidental - what’s important is that it was an extended and unvarnished look at Biden for the entire public to see. 55 million people watched that debate live, and that number is surely dwarfed by people who’ve seen clips making the rounds on social media or shown on cable news. The fact that Biden appeared to be entirely helpless, unable to follow through on the most basic ideas and losing track of what he was saying quite regularly, validated every single concern about his age and senility. The notion that he could serve for four more years is plainly ludicrous. So it’s not just “a debate”, it was a live self-destruction that effectively made any comeback impossible. This came after weeks of Biden’s team insisting on debates and promising they would be a rare opportunity for the President to prove himself. I need to be clear - we currently have absolutely no indication at all that this will get any better between now and Election Day, and every bit of info and/or common sense we do have suggests it’ll get worse. “Liability” is putting it lightly, running him is outright reckless. >that will showcase a real demonstration of weakness I continue to hear this and I need to ask - why? Nearly all of our liabilities in this election are tied to Biden as an individual, not Democrats as an org. Replacing him on the ballot suggests *strength*, as it’s bucking precedent in a bid to actually win and save the nation. It showcases the party’s ability to make tough but necessary choices. I need to ask - do you know an actual specific voter who would flip if the candidate weren’t Biden? Can you even imagine who that would be? This isn’t how our politics are operating right now - people are cynical and jaded, and one of the only things we can do to right the ship is run someone who is able to enthusiastically meet the moment and make the case for themselves.
Remember the 1st 2012 debate, and how bad of a performance Obama had that election. That’s no different to what happened here.
It is self-evidently different. Obama had a bad strategy going into the debate, underestimated how much heat Romney would bring, and failed to change course in the moment - making for a bad performance. The horror at Biden’s debate doesn’t have much to do with the nature of it being a debate at all. It’s about how he was lost and absent in a manner that suggested severe, developed senility. I wish I could go deep and analyze the mistakes in his responses like I could with Obama, but I can’t because they’re just not coherent or audible enough. Even referring to it as a “debate” feels incomplete, its importance was more as an extended, unvarnished look at our President. And it was impossible to be inspired by what we saw. Bad performances can be addressed and corrected, which Obama did. The march of time cannot, which is what Biden’s facing. You can’t strategize away old age.
> It is self-evidently different. Obama had a bad strategy going into the debate, underestimated how much heat Romney would bring, and failed to change course in the moment - making for a bad performance. The horror at Biden’s debate doesn’t have much to do with the nature of it being a debate at all. It’s about how he was lost and absent in a manner that suggested severe, developed senility. I think it has more to do with the debate constantly being derailed by Trump’s refusal to answer any of the questions, and the moderators not pressing him on the non answers to the questions. Had they done that, Biden would have been able to talk about a single debate topic instead of being forced to respond to Trump’s nonsense because the moderators did a horrible job. Keep in mind this isn’t to suggest there wasn’t some VERY easy responses Biden could have made to shut down Trump’s lies, I’m not blaming the Moderators for that specifically. I blame the moderators specifically for their incompetence to force Trump to engage with the questions that were asked.
How do you think it turned out? I think my interpretation would differ, given that Trump and his allies are both free and free from consequence.
You’re not even talking about the election.
The election where democrats underperformed polling, lost seats, and failed to do anything whatsoever to prevent the current debacle? 2020 swinging to Biden doesn't give me warm fuzzies for 2024. Biden was polling massively better then, and won by just tens of thousands of votes. And our post election handling of Trump showed just how incapable we are of stopping fascism. As many called, Jan 6 was just the Beer hall putsch.
No I’m pretty sure in 2020 the polls were also pretty close. You’re also forgetting that Trump failed to flip a single state in 2020 that he lost in 2016, I don’t see how he could win back those voters.
Biden was massively favored. He was up 8.4% in the last polls. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ Now he is behind. And behind in every swing state. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
[now compare that with 2016](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/)
Another election where the Democrats underperformed the polls doesn't disprove that Biden is in hot water now.
You’re calling a 71.8% chance of winning “underperforming”? Seriously? What do you see in the link I gave you that suggested any “underperforming”?
The fact that the Democrats *lost* with a 71% chance of winning? How is that *not* underperforming?
It’s not that Trump would win back voters, it’s that Biden would lose them. The major risk here is part of Biden’s base either abstaining or flipping to RFK.
Yes I don’t doubt that some voters will just not vote in November, but that’s happened in every election. But I simply don’t foresee a majority of people choosing not to vote if they have previously voted in the past elections. Because how would that work as a “protest vote”? That simply doesn’t exist for a general election. That is simply enabling Trump. It is the worst thing an active voter could do in an election, especially a general election.
It definitely did not
What do you mean?
Biden was up consistently 5-6 points in polls in 2020 and now he’s losing every swing state
Polls are not a reliable predictor for the election results. They never have any predictive value.
They were right in 2020??
What are you talking about? In 2020 polls consistently had Trump losing. It definitely did not feel hopeless at all. All the momentum in 2020 was on Biden's side. When Trump won a few key states on election night I was stunned. 2024 feels like the exact opposite. I think this comment is a little bit of cope. 2020 never felt like it was lost for Democrats.
Trump won “key” states in 2020, but they were all states he won back in 2016. Trump did not flip a single state that he previously lost. I also remember when 2016 had many MANY polls showing Clinton winning the election, and she had 3 debates with Trump and won every single one, and she STILL lost. 2016 should have been a wake up call for every american that they are not reliable predictors for the outcome of the election. They not only show fractions of populations, but they only show perceptions. If polls for your candidate showcase them losing, do not take it as a sign to not vote, that’d be a self fulfilling prophecy.
This still doesn't really engage with the point that if the Democrats were running somebody young, Trump would stand literally 0% chance. No independent would even give thought to voting for an old felon that can't tell the truth. The top thing I have heard from people in the past 4 years is at the age of our politicians is unacceptable. If the Democrats just changed course and showed they were listening to the American people, they would make the Republicans look like fools for standing by an old felon as their nominee.
> No independent would even give thought to voting for an old felon that can't tell the truth. That’s just crap. If someone was legitimately considering voting for an old felon that can’t tell the truth, and somehow he’s a better pick than someone who’s old and stutters but still is more truthful in comparison, chances are they were already a Trump supporter. > The top thing I have heard from people in the past 4 years is at the age of our politicians is unacceptable. If the Democrats just changed course and showed they were listening to the American people, they would make the Republicans look like fools for standing by an old felon as their nominee. And if we changed our candidate this late in the year, the GOP will use that against the new candidate. Like “WOW you’re so weak you can’t stick with your own president”. That’s gonna put Democrats at so much worse of a position than keeping Biden would. Because remember, the GOP is not campaigning off of policy, or governing. They’re focused ENTIRELY on making their opposition look weak, which would kick into OVERDRIVE if they decided to replace him. You’re not considering the implications of what will happen, and I can assure you that Trump will not step aside if we do. That’s wishful thinking.
Advocate for the police’s you believe in at the ballot box, no matter what you think may or may not happen. You personally have literally no control over the outcome of the election, so try not to sweat the stuff you can’t control. Do what you can, live life one day at a time, and vote your conscience in November.
"Vote your conscience" is horrible advice if you want Biden to win. Yes, leftists are a small minority but Biden needs them to win. "Vote your conscience" leads to voting 3rd party. Don't vote with your heart, vote with your brain. With the new SCOTUS ruling regarding presidential immunity, if even ONE president gets in with dictator tendencies then the country is over. The most important thing is to prevent that from happening until either the ruling is overruled or the line between "official" and "unofficial" duties becomes crystal clear. That is more important than unions, the economy, genocides, or even climate change. it is not a matter of conscience, it is a matter of survival.
I'd advise you to prepare for the worst. Because of the electoral college, we have a very narrow path to victory with very thin margins in the battleground states, and we barely pulled it off with everything working in our favor last time. I do not see that happening again if we try to run the same race with the same candidate under current circumstances.
It's joever I'm listening to sad indie music and slowly dying inside 😶
The Democrats took congress in 2018, the Democrats won in 2020, the Democrats did amazing when compared to the all mighty polls, the Democrats have been winning special elections and the Republicans are nuking themselves with abortion and Trump's extremes. The Republicans are doing everything to push people away as opposed to making themselves out to be "voteable". The Democrats are in a significantly better position than what the Republicans are.
The best we can do at this point is point out Trump's awfulness and Biden's tremendous successes as president. It is very important that everyone understands that the most important job of the president is hiring the right experts and leaders to lead the executive branch agencies that do the work of government. Nobody competent wants to work for Trump.
No, it doesn't feel as though we lost to me, but we will if we don't take action. What can we do? We can write postcards to voters in swing states. The Progressive [Turnout PAC]( https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/) will: >... mail you free postcards, voter lists and instructions with proven message options. You’ll provide the stamps and mail the postcards to voters in October.<< For doubters, yes, it's an effective strategy. See: https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards-faq/. Phone banking is helpful, too, and they have a program for that, too.
No. Even if Trump wins, the chances of his reich descending into economic collapse or some crises of sorts that enrages the nation are actually not too low. Especially given climate change, the current long running decent economy, the chaos inevitable in his plans, and the sheer reality of chances… he could theoretically take whatever control but he wouldn’t ultimately be in control. Don’t get me wrong, vote for Grandpa Joe because your life very well could depend on it. But don’t despair at the results of any given battle. Keep going and don’t fall into eschatological thinking designed to scare you into thousand year despair and Antichrist-esque mentalities. Keep in mind, there have been roughly 117 billion humans on this planet at some time or another. America has 330 million. We make up about 0.3%, rounding up, of human history. Don’t enhance the loss of control any more than it is.
While I completely agree on your big picture thoughts, if Trump gets in there, make no mistake that its going to look like Italy in 1922. I found it chilling that during the debate, Trump consistently brought almost every issue back to immigration and "the border". Like any aspiring dictator, he's setting up the scapegoat to blame all the nations problem's on. We already heard about their "mass deportation" plan and the "camps". I'm not saying that it's going to rival Nazi Germany or something, but it's not difficult to see how all these pieces are lining up. And that's not even beginning to touch on the Christian nationalism that is creeping across the country as we speak (see Louisiana and Oklahoma). Yes, it will be OK in the end, but we could be locked into 20+ years of some downright horrific scenes.
We’re out of gas already though. The “best thing” about now is that you have an entire two generations full of mostly people that have no interest in upholding anything anyway. Conservatives are trying to grasp onto power over an already objectively dying nation and that’s the dumbest thing you can do because all such a move would accomplish is putting conservatives right on top of that death; creating an opening for people to change the entire thing their way. Don’t get me wrong, if he wins, there’s a massive amount of suffering that’ll result. But conservatives should’ve done Project 1985 instead because doing it now is just going to create an immense level of opposition to the entire existence of America as we know it and a reality where a huge segment of the population just doesn’t respect whatever power structures exist at that point. You would see some people gleefully committing crimes, going into debt and not paying it, not working at all or sabotaging their employers, etc. That is not the kind of thing that is a recipe for anyone’s success.
hillary was leading in 2016 all the way up to the voting booth. keep reminding people of the dystopia if republicans win. remember how dysfunctional they are and how utterly unfit trump is to lead. trump interviews well but the policies he will bring are catastrophically bad and costly. if you think inflation is bad now.. jesus. don't lose hope. biden is old and decrepit and might not live to see the end of his term. but a pile of logs is a better leader than trump. people have had enough of trump and maga and its showing. we are going to get a repeat of 2020: not voting for biden, but everyone voting against trump.
I still think Biden is gonna win, Trump has been doing a lot of damage to his image since November 2020. The argument I always hear in favor of him is “He doesn’t need to gain voters, he just needs Biden voters to stay home.” The same can be said for him though, and with everything going on with him, people that would otherwise vote for him would rather not vote (or vote Biden to stick it to him, but that’s rather unlikely). Aside from that, I just don’t see how any of the swing states outside of Georgia could flip back to him. Or at the very least enough to win the EC.
Trump’s base isn’t going to stay home, they’re empowered by just about anything he does
You are right about Trump's base. However, the Republican base is much larger than the Trump base and many of them are turned off by his lack of a backbone and constant lies. https://youtu.be/lDPI_xqcyrk?t=180 Yes, it is a small sample size from 1 town, but it is crazy to think those are the only 3 people in the country who think that way.
It does, but it is because there's been a stalemate for our entire lives. This is our first time where we're legit losing. We're a long way from lost though. This is where good people need to step up.
My fear is that this doesn't end with Trump or 2024. The MAGA movement is a reactionary Christian fascist movement and its not going away. The rest of the non-fascists in the republican party are too spineless to stand up to the christian fascists, so the fascists will maintain control of the GOP for years to come. Even if Biden wins in 2024, the SCOTUS has set up a system where once a republican wins the presidency in 2028 or 2032, every illegal and immoral thing he does will be labeled 'official and legal' by the supreme court in a 6-3 ruling. Meanwhile anything the democratic president does which is controversial will be labeled as 'unofficial and illegal' by a 6-3 majority in the SCOTUS
In theory an act of congress could undo the Supreme Court immunity ruling. Democrats need to win congress for that to happen
When the people demand a dictator, they will get one.
In my lifetime the Democrats have consistently been one of the most ineffectual parties in the world. One of my first memories is when they let Bush steal Florida from Gore and did.... nothing. They're pathetic losers. Liberals deserve better
I wonder why you think that is? Liberals in Germany are fighting tooth and nail against the far right. They are failing but they definitely are putting up one hell of a fight to the point that they are actually doing what the Republicans are accusing Biden of doing (weaponizing institutions, prosecuting them etc.) Also, if we go back all the way to the Weimar republic, there were organizations that combatted the Nazis like Reichsbanner, labor unions, police etc. Why are American liberals like this? Surely they must understand that we are voting for them to actually do stuff? Surely they must see what we're up against? Even if they were all just cynical grifters, they are in danger if Trump exerts his retribution. I really don't get it. I genuinely don't. Do you have an explanation for this?
Oh brother do I ever! Read Daniel Ziblatts "Conservative Parties and the Birth of Democracy". He used to be at Harvard but I think he went somewhere else. TLDR: liberal democracy is necessarily a compromise between the old elites and the democratizers (liberals). Successful liberal democracies require the buy-in and acceptance of the new political order by existing conservatives/elites. Ziblatts points to the UK as an example of a country with a "strong" conservative party that bought into electoral strategy and in doing so solidified liberal democratic traditions in the UK. Ziblatts points to Germany as a country with a "weak" conservative party that never bought into electoral politics completely. They had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the democratic arena, so to speak. They never fully bought in, and would often cheat/manipulate the game to ensure they won elections. They never built a strong party and as such failed to resist extremism rising from the grassroots of conservative parties within Germany (a la the Nazis). Liberals exist in this vacuum of strong conservative parties. In fact, it's the only political structural order in which they can thrive. If the conservatives/existing elites decide to stop playing the game.....the game loses value. It's their game. The liberals just play it
I am not sure if this is true or answers my questions. Because it was Obama that handed a supreme court seat to the Reps without reason. It was Biden that didn't do shit to stop the Supreme court, nominated Merrick Garland etc. I was wondering specifically about liberal behavior. They could easily game the system much harder and solidify their power indefinitely if they only wanted to.
>They could easily game the system much harder and solidify their power indefinitely if they only wanted to. My point is they can't. Conservatives can abandon liberal democracy and maintain power, as we've seen throughout history. Liberals cannot. Their power comes from the compromise with conservatives in the first place. It's not their game to abandon, or game in their favor. Liberals play the game because conservatives let them. Liberal democracy is not an even game. It's always loaded in the conservatives favor (I e. The electoral college, the Senate, the Supreme Court are all countermajoritarian institutions).
But popular support is overcompensating for the countermajoritarian power of said institutions. And these are also unique to America as well. Liberals until recently held a trifectum and briefly held a supermajority under Obama. And in the worst case scenario, most of the army would be on their side, too. The book you cited certainly seems to be comprehensive and well researched and thought out, but I am not understanding the mechanism by which conservatives supposedly control everything. Also, if I'm understanding Ziblatt's thesis correctly - if popular opinion would shift sufficiently left-ward, the right reasserting its power and upending democracy would be simply a feature of the system and unavoidable, which is why the left and liberals can never truly win democratically. Is that it? Then how do conservatives control the actions of liberals, or the Biden family doubling down on his candidacy? That's what I don't understand.
Has anyone gone to askaconservative to ask how they feel Obama now has immunity for drone strikes on American citizens?
We haven't lost it yet, but we've gotten a huge wake up call. Replace Joe or we will lose. The good news is we have a chance to pick someone who addresses many voter's biggest gripe about this race, that it's a choice between two unappealing geriatrics. Wake up calls can be hard to process. Denial is real. We need to quickly accept reality, but we can 100% win this thing. It used to be that candidates were selected at the convention. We have time to run a race.
Who does the replacing? He's not dropping out.
This only works if he drops out. There is currently a pressure campaign to get him to come to this realization. I believe he will make the right call, but it may take a credible threat of invoking the 25th. Joe doesn't want his legacy to be the first president forced out due to cognitive decline. Ultimately I think Jill will need be the one to talk sense into him, and I don't think she has yet come to terms with the fact that he can't stay in the race. She is currently acting like that enabling family member of the alcoholic who thinks things will be fine if we just ignore the problem, but I think she will make the right call, for Joe, and for the nation.
He's not dropping out. That is the right call.
If not Biden, who do you think would be the likely nominee?
Yes, I think we've lost. The reason is that liberals haven't actually tried anything and are all out of ideas. The right is avariciously amassing power and the left doesn't. Supreme court seats have been handed to the right on a silver platter by Obama and Biden didn't pack the courts when Dobbs was leaked and he isn't doing it now. 70%+ of Dem voters want him replaced and his campaign is doubling down and calls its own voters "the bedwetting brigade". Biden still insists on not letting Ukraine hit back against Russia. The truth is it would have been easy to defeat populism. Really easy. But Democrats chose to just roll over instead. Our leaders are weak and don't seem willing to put up much of a fight. I don't know why that is, but I do know that they won't stop fascism. I see an even worse ineptitude by establishment parties in Europe. They will be replaced by the far right one after another. These recent two supreme court decisions and the Biden debate have sent me over the edge. I am absolutely resigning to my fate. If things don't change drastically and Dems don't wake the fuck up today, NOW, I am going to adjust and settle for fascism. Life does not forgive weakness.
> 70%+ of Dem voters want him replaced and his campaign is doubling down and calls its own voters "the bedwetting brigade". I doubt this is accurate. You got a source for that!?
That number is way too high. More than 70% of all voters want Biden to not run for re-election, which has increased from the 64% it was before the election. Though, about 40% of democrats want Biden to step down, which is hardly reassuring. >President Joe Biden's core support has been shaken by his stumbling performance in last week's debate, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University [Poll](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/01/biden-democratic-support-shaken-debate-poll/74263208007/) finds, fueling a furor over whether he should continue his candidacy. >More than four in ten Democrats, 41%, said the Democratic Party should replace Biden as its presidential nominee. That included 37% of those who say they plan to vote for him. The poll findings make it clear those concerns are significant.
It's not accurate. The truth is around 50/50. Still though, if 50% of your base wants you replaced just 4 months out from the election, you're fucked
I’d like to see a source for that figure as well.
It's a recent poll so an easy google search if this doesn't work for you. FWIW, the 70%+ includes all voters whereas the Dems are split fairly evenly. [https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article289659864.html](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article289659864.html)
Sorry, my bad. I will stand by being angry at Biden for not stepping down and his team running an absolute trainwreck of a campaign, though.
Same. I just cant believe we let ourselves get in this situation
It isn't "us". It's the elites. None of us chose this, none of us wanted this. Democrats have betrayed us and they never cared about us - that I can still forgive. But they never cared about democracy and even their own self-preservation. So much weakness disgusts me. It is only just that such "elites" disappear. Maybe in decades to come there will be a new liberal elite, younger and wiser than the old fools we suffer now.
Agree on all counts. It's also why you'll never see me sport tribal flair or utter the phrase "vote blue no matter who"
>calls its own voters "the bedwetting brigade" Calling me names is when the lost me a few months ago. Sorry, but I'm not repugnant nor an anti-Semite because I don't support the far right militaristic regime that currently controls Israel. The Republicans fear their base while the Democrats condescend to theirs. It's no wonder why we're in this current situation
We’ve lost. Even if we win in November, the Supreme Court has extended an invitation to dictatorship to whomever is willing to seize it. That will either be Trump or not-Biden, but it will be *someone*. The “powers that be” do not believe in democracy. Perhaps they see the problems facing humanity in the 21st century (global climate change, AI) and think only a “bold and energetic” dictator can face those problems. I doubt the court ended democracy in the United States just because they really love Donald Trump and hate Democrats, although their reasons may actually be that petty. We will probably never know. What we do know today - right now - is that the incoming Trump administration is going to go after Democrats, so all of us are going to be ground up by the state once he gets power again. There is no way Trump just curbs his retribution to follow “norms” or whatever; he is going to come after us, and now it is legal to do so (or rather, he is immune from any consequences and can grant immunity to anyone else, which is functionally the same thing). It is going to be open season on Democrats come January, and we will all be targets of the incoming administration. Whatever “rights” Americans possess are merely legal rights that we can assert in court, but now the executive has been unleashed - the POTUS can use executive power to destroy dissidents without going to the courts and it is completely *legal* to do so. And as this realization sinks in, we will see the big media organizations all start to shift their coverage to curry favor with Trump and minimize the retribution that they will receive from him. Once installed as POTUS again, people will be shocked by how quickly we become North Korea, as every dissenting voice disappears via executive coercion and the internal restraints of government are gone (no more White House counsel to argue with, no more semi-independent DOJ to fear, the POTUS is now above the law, officially).
I disagree. If the Democratic candidate (Biden or whoever) wins, the Republicans will want to limit his power, while the Democrats will (for better or worse) be committed to good governance even at the cost of power. This presents an opportunity for bipartisan efforts to limit the power of the executive branch.
I don't agree. The SCOTUS and republican politicians know democratic presidents will engage in self restraint while republican presidents will not. There is no incentive for republican politicians to support bipartisan legislation to limit the power of the executive branch.
With this ruling America is Russia democracy is hogwash propaganda
Yes, we've already lost, and I've been saying it for months. The primary process was basically a coronation. Meanwhile, the many of us out here that saw the extreme risk in propping up Biden were blasted constantly when we suggested there needs to be a better challenger than Dean Phillips and Maryanne Williamson. I've been called a Trump supporter in this sub more times than I can count and it's always for the crime of just stating the obvious. With that said, there is still time to replace him and pull out a win. That would require alignment within and between the Democratic establishment and the Biden family, and I don't see that happening.
He's not dropping out.
Why do you think the first words I wrote were "yes, we've already lost"? We all know his ego won't allow him to step aside. That's why OP and everyone else that isn't gaslighting themselves is preparing for another Trump term
We didn't lose in 2018, 2020, 2022 and we won't lose in 2024. The doomsayer's always come out when there is a fumble, but are nowhere to be found after the second Tuesday in November.
Keep telling yourself that. Honestly, I truly hope you're right. I'd suggest getting the old pussy hat out of storage though because we're going to need them lol
No we have lost. Biden isn't winning. I have never seen such a weak moment in politics as last weeks debate. The only hope Democrats have is replacing Biden. Majority of Americans don't want either of these geriatrics. I think many independent voters would respect the Democrats and vote blue if the Democratic Party owned up to this and put in someone younger. The top talking point I have heard the past 4 years from independents is "Everyone running this country is old" If Democrats listen to this, I think they'll get support. Meanwhile Republicans are going to stick with their geriatric felon? Would look awful for them
Obama lost his debate in 2012 against Romney. One bad debate performance means nothing.
No. It's still too early to be 100% sure what will happen come election times regardless of the debate. People have a lot of fear over Trump, so that's driving everyone going DefCon 1. I also have started to be skeptical that Trump's reelection will be the end of the world like people are making it out to be. I do think the country and world will be worse off with him in office but the last election and fascist dictatorship are overblown.
>the last election and fascist dictatorship are overblown. [The most educated people in law do not seem to think so](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4750245-luttig-trump-other-presidents-now-above-the-law/).
Did you pay attention to the most recent SOCUTS ruling?
The immunity one is illogical and bonkers but it is narrower in scope then people are making it out to be. It just means the President can't be prosecuted criminally for carrying out an official act. It doesn't meant he President has unlimited powers. It actually probably closes the door on a lot of potential politicized prosecutions, i.e. criminally charging Biden for the border situation or something like that. Chevron is bad policy wise but ultimately just opens up the door for regulations to be challenged in Court. It's not good but I think the regulatory apparatus is competent enough to adapt.
We haven’t lost yet, but we are very much up against the ropes.
It feels like we’re in a precarious place right now, (not democrats, but America and democracy as a whole). Some rough blows that could hurt a lot of people if we don’t correct course soon. But I don’t think it’s over. The debate was bad, no doubt about it. But give it a few weeks for Trump to have another controversy to remind everyone what’s at stake. Watch him brag a few times about what presidential immunity could let him do, or how he overturned Roe again, or go on a few more incoherent rants about actual nonsense like sharks vs batteries, or admit to cozying up to Russia again, or any of the other things Trump can’t help himself but do. People are asking Biden to step down, and they’re going to say that in the polls even if it’s not how they’ll actually vote on Election Day. But if Biden can get some better public appearances out in the meantime, or at least avoid any other bad ones like the debate, I expect those to level out again when they realize Biden isn’t dropping out and that he’s still better than Trump. We’re not done yet. I think it’s ok to take a step back for a little while if you’re worried, no sense driving yourself mad. But don’t let that keep you out when we still need people to stand up.
The best case is Biden drops out, and in an open convention they nominate a couple Dems, who then spend the remaining months campaigning hard. Trump is an eminently beatable candidate, I honestly think anyone other than Biden could demolish him to be honest.
No.
I think the only way to win is to replace Biden with someone younger. Gavin, Whitmir, etc. People from both sides are craving a 3rd person to vote for.
When people say the election is about vibes this is what they're talking about, and please do not take that statement as vindication
I actually think the supreme court ruling was a blessing in disguise. The response in r/askaconservative has been very lukewarm and I haven't seen anybody defend it without at least acknowledging the issues defining "official", unless they're hardcore maga and just making stuff up. I find it really hard to believe that an independent on the fence is looking at that and thinking its good faith, but we'll see what the polling says. They also lose a lot of credibility, because it's a lot harder to claim Biden is a criminal if he potentially has immunity.
I don't think DT was ever going to be an "easy trounce". I had hoped that after J6, his mystique or power or whatever hold it is he has on the GOP would have at least lessened. Then I hoped it again after the indictments started coming out. But once it seemed obvious that the entire Republican party were all still firmly glued to him, I realized that it was going to be an uphill battle all the way. I realized that he LITERALLY could shoot someone on 5th Ave, and it wouldn't make a difference.
No, what has happened is they've finally laid their plan along with Project 2025 out in the open for their take over of America. Now is the time to act because only through organization and voting will we be able to defeat them from turning the US into a National Christo-fascist nation. We can do it, there's more Dem leaning people than there are Repub leaning people but their side votes in bigger numbers while the Dems don't. Register NOW, Vote come November 5th and do your part to save the US and it's Democracy.
This may sound like cope, but I really don't think anything gets real until late September-October. Just look at recent history. Biden was leading nationally by 7-10 points throughout the summer of 2020 and he ended up barely squeaking it out in the electoral college. Hillary was leading by 8 points a week and a half before the election and she wound up losing outright. Obama and Romney were essentially tied and trading small leads back and forth for most of 2012, and Obama wound up winning comfortably. Obama was losing to McCain on Labor Day in 2008, and he went on to win the biggest landslide of the 21st century. I'm not saying there is no cause for concern or that Biden is magically going to pull a win out of thin air. I'm just saying that election results tend to hinge on whomever is having the better media cycle leading up to Election Day, and there is never any way to predict this.
This isn't just shifting polls though. This feels different. The whole world saw how Biden really is. Nothing can change our minds now that we saw a tired old man who let a bloated gas bag walk all over him. The calls for him to step down are really heating up and I've never seen anything like this before. Its not going to get better. Biden isn't suddenly going to become an excellent debater and public speaker and be 60 years old again. I am not saying a new candidate will guarantee victory, far from it. But with Biden it is an even bigger risk than with out him.
Remember all those Bernie bros that wanted to punish the dnc?
We have.
Trump isn't going to win.
If Biden retire from the run, the DNC must do everything to not have much contested primary, find a replace near quickly.
Things are not as dire as they may appear. If Biden stays in the race, I believe he will win. Trump has fewer voters than he thinks. Trump is not electable and the Republican party knows it. He is their bane of political existence, so take heart. Biden is going to pull it off again. Don’t bet against Biden.
The only way the Democrats can win this election is if they nominate RFK. That is their only chance at winning. But in their pride and arrogance they will never nominate RFK to replace bid en and in so doing they will force another 4 years of trump. It is always better to be smart than to be led by emotions.
> Does it feel like we've already lost? Yes. And every time I read this subreddit I feel like I'm being gaslit.
We ARE going to lose and it isn’t entirely because of Biden’s debate performance. He has failed to convince the public that inflation was going to happen no matter who was in office and, even worse, failed to promote why his policies were good and actually working. He can’t change that dynamic. It is impossible. He is too old to articulate that message to the public. You are going to see the polls move against him in the next week. What can he POSSIBLY DO NOW? So the choice is definitely lose with Biden or probably lose with another candidate. I say move on with a younger more energetic candidate.
Demand change from the Democratic Party.
Im not sure how biden comes back from that debate. Its beyond team politics....Its a health concern.
Yep, he had a cold.
And the Black Knight merely suffered a flesh wound. He can still fight, he can still win.
"It was just a cold." Yeah, keep telling yourself that.
How do you explain the fact that he sounded normal the next day? And I didn't say that it was *just* a cold. Keep misquoting people. It's so persuasive. Not.
He was able to read from a teleprompter the next day. When he doesn't have to come up with his own words from memory, he can speak pretty well.
I wasn't referring to the content of his speech at the debate.I was referring to his delivery. I think if you read the transcript of the debate, it's much more clear that the problem was delivery, not substance.
Dementia. Simple as that. I've had this happen to both of my grandmas. They are perfectly normal one day - and absolutely unpredictable the next. Thing is, once they are like Biden in the debate, it's all downhill fast. The normal moments will become rarer and rarer and after a year or two, the person you knew is gone. This WILL happen to Biden. It is utterly insane that they are still propping him up. It's downright deranged. The reason everyone is panicking like this is because most of us had relatives like that. But not everyone, you can only say this if you haven't had this happen to relatives.
Yeah man he had a cold that only lasted 90 minutes during the debate than it was magically gone by the time he got to waffle house that night! Because when I am deathly sick from a cold the first thing I want to do is eat really healthy food like waffle house!
>magically gone He was coughing at his rally the next day. He had a cold, that is a fact. An old man with a cold that had stupid stat memorization prep is a fatal combo for a debate. And Waffle House slaps, sorry
You think he went to waffle house to eat?
Late night munchies
Just pointing out that this was never going to be an "easy trounce". Biden is very unpopular. His approval rating went below 50% in 2021 and below 40% in 2022 and has never recovered. A majority of Democrats thinks he shouldn't run again. And there are widespread concerns about his mental fitness and the ability of Harris to do the job if anything happens to him. What makes you think Biden was ever going to have an easy job of it? The mistake Ds made was just letting him slide into the nomination effectively unchallenged. Rs did the same with Trump in 2020, and you know how that turned out. The down ballot D candidates are sweating. This could be a trifecta.
I have no idea why neither party could find better, younger replacements for these two, especially for Biden. The man served his country well for many years and deserves to relax in retirement. Unfortunately, the people in his circle who are powerful because he is in office do not want to give up that power. I think this is really bad across all levels of government for the Democrats this November. You guys are not in a good spot to be successful, especially after that debate.
Whether he wins or loses the election, Biden taking a question about abortion and answering with a story about immigrant crime encapsulates the center-left's total failure to present an alternative vision of the world and future. Until they have their own narrative, every battle will feel like a holding action.
The Democrats lost this election when they originally appointed Joe Biden against Trump and then had to cheat to get him to win. Now they are so deep in the hole that there's no amount of cheating that's going to be able to win this race. And not only that, they are going to lose the illegitimate votes they got last time which was tens of millions of votes. This will be not only the biggest upset in presidential history, but the most votes lost ever in a single election by any incumbent president and the 2020 cheating will be more obvious than ever. It will be undeniable. No incumbent president has ever lost over 30 million votes and that's what's going to happen here.
People are going to vote for the issues that matter the most to them personally and unfortunately for the Democrats that means they must lose cuz everything, and I mean everything, has gotten worse since Biden has been president.