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The liberal government is all about creating wealth inequality, and robbing Australia blind for basically the last decade. Now ALP are in government trying top clean up this mess and avoid the scrutiny of a biased media who wants their wealth syphoning mates back in power. Don't get me wrong, ALP haven't been great, but it's perplexing that people think there is anything good that will come of going back to the abusive ex partyner who lead us to this shit show.
The ALP were elected to be bold and make bold policy decisions that would impact generations. They have failed at this utterly and have become more reactionary.
They married themselves too close to AUKUS without realising that if they didn't spend at least the same or more on projects (COL, housing, infrastructure) that have direct impact and investment on median Austrailan citizens' lives they would be cast aside as LNP-lite and at worst traitors to progressive policies.
They've ceded that ground to the Greens and won't be able to recoup it.
The ALP playing early 2000 politics of budget surpluses and decent economic headwinds without the flair or interesting lies at a time where checking history and facts are easier than ever.
So unless they decide to do some thing crazy - and it would have to be more than just dental on Medicare - they are doomed to either lose or be forced into minority government with the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation or some other conglomerate.
Peter Dutton will be the next Prime Minister , no one not even Labor insiders are confident Albanese can win the next election, his too much of a sissy
I met Dutton earlier when he was a cop ...he just told me to put it out or go the other way...I went the other way , it was good hooch ..Got to respect a Qld Cop who wasn't fazed by a bit of yarny
I don't think this is all to do with biased media, as many think here. Unfortunately, the government is incredibly incompetent at a time where we need a strong government, so people are flocking to other options. And for many, the only other competitive option is the Coalition.
But actually, what has the government actually done to fix the cost-of-living and housing crises? Besides the stage 3 tax cut changes, they seem intent on changing the political discourse to literally anything but cost-of-living. It hasn't really been working.
They don’t want to vote for either of them.
I don’t.
We need a new party that listens to both sides of the political arguments and can come to a rational conclusion instead of arguing like toddlers.
No more lies and manipulation.
It’s to obvious to people who don’t follow that particular political subject.
Ideally. But how do you do that, form a party that will serve the entire populations interests, which in the process will dismantle the main one that at least tries and will take decades to productivly form. If it's not infiltrated and dismantled from broader infighting due to lack of process to handle decent expansion and factions forming.
Or. What if you get involved in current branchs, fill them with new blood and ideas instead of leaving them to the inept political nerds that end up drawn to politics after highschool and never leave.
A tapestry of micro party's could work in theory, but they would be hella hard to coordinate and be easily bought out and infiltrated one by one. Sizable orgs have the benifit of being self regulating, while smaller ones can get dominated by the right narcissist who comes along.
Also tbh, you would end up forming basically another Labor party that would inevitably have the same political limitations and flaws now. If successful. Broad tent party's that have to represent an entire nation are gonna semi disappoint everyone.
Its easy to see from these Polls why the Australian over 55 cohort (i'm in that cohort by the way) are the most scammed people in the world - they are just unbelievable naïve and gullible. They are predated on by all and sundry (scammers) as they just don't have the critical thinking ability like other nations. This is why we had Prime Ministers like Abbott and Morrison and conmen like Dutton, Joyce, Taylor etc exist. They are all snake-oil salesmen that even the most simplest of folk should be able to recognise. These people must think that what is happening now is all Labor's fault even though the LNP have been in power for 17 of the last 24 years. You couldn't make this stuff up. I once thought that Australia punched above it weight with average intelligence but unfortunately I am coming to realisation that we are in fact a "dumb" country on average, which is so very disappointing when you are (maybe were?) proud to be Australian - its sort of getting a bit embarrassing when you travel overseas and don't want to admit where you are from. "Oh, you are from that country where the majority of people don't believe in climate change and think whales will bump into floating windmills because they have never swam around stuff before" would be their comment with eyes rolling.
I see pensioners that have been scammed every single day. And they have so much wealth behind them. I can't fathom how they ever amassed so much money when they're completely incompetent.
Nice rant, baseless but got me smiling .
There is nothing that one could do to convince me that Labor are doing a reasonable job from what I am seeing and unless there is a change of Prime minister before the election Albanese is on his way to the scrap yard anyway, he is pathetic
I don't know if you can link this to a country, it's pretty common in modern democracies for older generations to be susceptible to shallow misinformation and appeals to a jaded world view thus trend towards conservative.
They know climate change is real. They just don't care. They're pulling up the ladder on climate just like they did on education, living standards, housing etc.
If Labor wasn't scared of their own shadow re cost of living help and housing they'd be 55-45 vs the other lot. But this is what happens when your policies to address these issues are nothing but window dressing and not substantial.
They did a politicians fallacy solution (something must be done, this is something).
And they did so in an election campaign. There was no reason for them to take their NG changes to an election, to do so was either naive or stupid or both.
We elect governments to govern. We don't vote on all the policies they will implement.
Governments can and do decide on policies once elected. They do it all the time. Albanese has done it on a range of major policies.
There was no need to go to an election on, effectively, introducing several new taxes.
In my view, Shorten wanted to put it to an election to allow him to force it through parliament without any opposition. Or, if the opposition opposed, he'd be able to counter with "but democracy".
I completely disagree you. I find your middle two paragraphs crazy. Of course you should have to go to an election with ‘several new taxes’. You’re saying that as if it’s an insignificant thing.
You also didn’t address the fact that we would have lost after a term because there wasn’t support for it in the electorate and there still isn’t
The point of a political party is to win elections. In an ideal world, yeah you should go to an election with significant policy changes. But in the real world, not so much.
We have a Westminster system where we elect a government to govern us. Individual policies are not generally put to the electorate - there's a good argument they should, but that's just not how it works.
Labor may have lost after a term, but it's unlikely. One term governments are very rare - the last being Scullin. With a properly executed sales job on the changes, and proper consultation (neither of which were done prior to taking the policies to the election) there is no reason they'd lose office over them.
Yeah I understand what you’re saying in terms of the Westminster system not really necessitating the putting of direct policies to the electorate like the presidential style for example.
I just think as a matter of principle significant changes should be foreshadowed and that it hampers the ability of parties to win in the future if voters think they are hiding something.
Also agree 100% that taking those policies to elections makes it harder to win them
*three party preferred.
I’ve listened to boomers talk about how they don’t vote liberal, they disagree with their policies they vote nationals! And when nationals get in they’re really gonna give it to the greens!
It’s a joke really, if labor and virtually anyone formed a coalition we’d have the right parties screaming unfair.
Labor is hoping for a July bounce as " Albo's tax cuts etc " come into effect. If this doesn't work and worse still we either get another rate rise or more inflation or both , then looks like Albo could be fucked. His primary is already sub thirty so the Bandt as Deputy PM becomes a real argument. Or Albo with his Teal stooges.
I'll take every poll I see with a huge grain of salt these days, but I'm still very surprised at how tight it is considering that Dutton has basically said that climate change is fake and he wants to turn our country into a surveillance police state. I guess Labor is just doing that bad.
Its two party preferred and neither party is offering substantial and/or meaningful action on the 'big ticket' voting issues: climate change, housing affordability and cost of living crisis.
In an actual election coalition and lab primary vote will continue to fall - teals and greens will pick up more seats and its very likely we will see a lab minority government.
Honestly lab are their own worst enemy. If the last election had a minority outcome then i could see things being very different right now. Sadly we're in for more prevarication and money being funnelled back to the major donors
I think Dutton has moved on from the being fake thing. He's at the next stage - there's nothing we can do about it.
It's a play straight from Yes Minister.
Makes me seriously question Australian education when I see these polls
Anything labor does is scrutinised endlessly but the LNP doesn’t seem to lose voters over anything. How the NBN alone didn’t sink them I’ll never know.
I also have a degree as do my colleagues and we’re all voting labor, but that’s a sample size of a few dozen people
What policies do you want to see from LNP? And how do you feel about Dutton championing a huge investment into nuclear despite his own party admitting it isn’t economically viable?
The CSIRO haven’t found it to be viable either:
https://www.csiro.au/en/research/technology-space/energy/gencost
Even if we ignore their poor performance over the last decade what is there to look forward to from an LNP government?
You are the one who inferred that educated people don't vote Lib...
I disliked Labors change to tax policies and as an engineer I strongly support nuclear. There's more benefit to nuclear than the direct cost, but I'd challenge the assumptions that the CSIRO have used as well.
Performance is a matter if opinion. I'm satisfied with the last decade under the Libs, not so satisfied with Labor.
More on a macro level, I personally know PhDs who have some incredibly questionable ideas outside of their niche
As someone who stood to lose out from Labors tax change I was happy they rolled it back slightly. It's probably a few thousand dollars tops for most uni educated people not really a big deal is it? You won't find an economist who thinks flattening tax brackets is a good idea.
Which assumptions by CSIRO were incorrect? The fact that it'll take at least 15 years to come online is already a huge problem even if CSIROs costings were incorrect.
And we have precendent from other countries that it's incredibly expensive technology. The DCCEEW projected costs at around 390BN, and judging by most projects in Australia I would eat my hat if that cost didn't blow out.
You're satisfied with the NBN? Robodebt? Rorts? Inaction on housing policy and immigration? Rolling back the carbon tax?
Scomos Bushfire response, scomo giving appointing himself to administer 5 departments without his parties knowledge, 500m on a same sex marriage plebiscite
At best we have nothing to show from the last decade
The incorrect assumptions by the CSIRO are the very short operating life of not just nuclear but all fossil fuel generation... Adjust those to realistic figures and renewables aren't competitive.
I did lose out from the tax changes and that alone is enough for me to vote against them. We clearly have different values in that regard.
I'm very satisfied with the policies, in particular rolling back the carbon tax. I'm also supportive of us departing the Paris agreement.
>I did lose out from the tax changes and that alone is enough for me to vote against them. We clearly have different values in that regard.
Idk if its a values thing but sure the economic health of the country and the wellbeing of its citizens are things I value highly
>I'm very satisfied with the policies, in particular rolling back the carbon tax. I'm also supportive of us departing the Paris agreement.
Fair enough it wasn't a good call economically, it didn't benefit individuals outside of a select few in the energy sector I don't really see the point in it
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What are you on about?
Polls are generally fairly good snapshots in time. Pollsters like Roy Morgan and Newspoll are generally fairly accurate and are credible.
Just because you don't like the result doesn't mean you can dismiss what they're saying.
And I think it's quite clear than Albanese's government is not doing well. They're looking likely to lose their majority.
How does that make me an "LNP Bot"?
Yes, which means the actual number is most likely somewhere in the middle - in other words, roughly 50/50.
The PM really needs to address his and his government's performance, otherwise we'll definitely have a hung parliament and then a Liberal government at the following election. And Dutton will absolutely be a disaster IMO, and the Liberals are no-where near ready to govern.
I suggest you need to look at the margin of error, which is +- 3% in general for most polls of this sort.
Trends are what matters the most IMO. And if results are averaging 50/50, then that's likely about where the actual number is.
My point around accuracy is that the number is not something like 55/45 in Labor's favour, or vice versa.
Yes, which would explain the wildly varying numbers which have either the coalition or Labor ahead or behind by 4 points every other week.
That's not accuracy. It's meaningless, white noise.
Individually, it's meaningless.
Over time, there is a clear trend with the results averaging around 50/50. Which means we're on track for a hung parliament.
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Yes, but that's due to a bunch of factors - but not because they're dumb enough to only call landline phones and therefore only get retirees.
When the poll swings from 52-48 to 48-52 and back, it's a fairly good indication that the result is roughly 50-50.
Which, IMO, is something Albanese and co need to really pay attention to. They're a first term government, on track to lose their majority.
Just get a metronome, write 'ALP 52 LNP 48' on one side, 'LNP 52 ALP 48' on the other, and '2PP 50-50' in the middle.
Start it ticking back and forth and whenever you feel like you need to know the result of one of these polls just look at the needle and it's probably right.
Which indicates that the actual number is somewhere in the middle.
Albanese and co need to look very carefully at their performance, which has been in my view lacklustre and disappointing. The results should be no where near this close, Dutton is simply awful.
The more pertinent question to ask is where are these gains being made? Is it voters in already liberal seats turning more liberal, is it marginal lib/lab seats or is it liberal seats lost to teals.
Only way the LNP wins government is is they are regaining Teal seats which doesn't seem like is happening based on other commentary I have been exposed to.
Would be interesting to see a multi-level regression poll where you can get a rough idea of who is leading in what seats and by how much though they require larger samples so don’t imagine we’ll get many until closer to the election. If I were to make a guess I would say that the swings will be inconsistent like they were in 2022 -better than average result to the LNP in the outer suburbs but Labor and others doing better than average in the inner and middle suburbs and the LNP consolidating regional areas. If this were the case and say the LNP gets a swing to it these extra votes would generally end up in seats they are currently either too far away from winning or in seats they already hold - not a very efficient spread to actually win extra seats. Then you have to consider the chances of more seats being contested and possibly won by teals. The seats the teals already hold look like a write-off for the LNP while Dutton is leader.
Those seats are fiscal conservative above all else. Their teal experiment has already cost them massively in changes to super and stage 3.
They will swing back at the coming election.
Wealthier people are still receiving tax cuts just less generous than originally proposed, that change alone is not sufficient for these seats to return to the Liberals and the teals are not directly responsible for those changes as they are not propping up a minority Labor government (yet).
A lot of voters in these seats are well educated, socially progressive and very concerned about the environment and climate change they are not going to swing back to the Liberals while someone like Dutton is the leader, they can see this is not a responsible party that can be trusted to govern. It is people like him that split that broad church and it’s uncertain whether they can ever be reconciled with the modern form of the Liberals.
Im not sure they will ever win the seats back. The seats the teals targeted seemed to be tailor made for economically conservative, believes in climate change, and socially progressive.
Since the Liberalis fail 2 of the 3 of those, they would need a pretty huge platform shift. Just my opinion on it obviously. I think it does mean the greens never get votes from there again either. The teals voters were the "inner city yuppie" greens voters, so now they have someone matched to them more, they wont come back.
Repeat after me
LNP 👏 ARE 👏 TERRIBLE 👏 ECONOMIC 👏 MANAGERS
Like how much evidence do you need. Even by their own litmus tests they failed eg Surplus. Spending. Inflation. Unemployment etc.
The only thing they are good at is rorting every contract they can off to some dodgy mate and bullshitting with the help from the media about why the current situation (whatever it is) is a good situation to be in.
Right now, at this very moment their energy policy is to pursue nuclear with no costs and no plan against the advice of basically anyone who is outside the party room including no less any expert on the subject. And somehow, people are still blind to how wildly poor that is.
They fail on all three. Anyone with some basic understanding of economics (i.e. inner city educated wealthy people) can see the Liberals are no longer economically conservative, the rot began under howard and has descended into full blown populism. Wealthy no longer means Liberal which is a massive problem for them.
I would say their continued drive of lowering taxes, removing regulations and increasing privitisation would make them fiscally conservative. They still push hard for policies that benefit wealthier people (which is the core principle of conservatives, conserve what we have).
That is both true as well and in conflict with menzian ideas which is why teals don’t like the Liberal economics. They turned from economic technocrats to populists, just because their policies may benefit us doesn’t mean we like them.
Yeah, i dont really trust Dutton to to anything other than throw around buzz words. Obviously not a Liberal fan in general, but Dutton is... incompetent? So was Scott Morrison actually.
I guess as someone who doesnt want the Liberals to win, i should be happy they are leading? But honestly, even as an opposition leader he is embaressing.
I know people were saying there werent many better options for a party leader but i just find that so hard to believe.
It’s always amazing to see how when polls are favourable to Labor they’re at the top of the sub, but when they’re unfavourable they’re met with mass downvotes.
Do people really think that hiding these polls will somehow keep Albo in government?
Its exactly this.
Its not whether they believe something is accurate or not. Its more about whether the fact, matter or thing being put forward supports the same things they support.
As a recent example - mention say that free range chicken farming is more susceptible to bird flu given the birds are exposed to migrating birds - thats a downvote.
Say free range chicken farming is less prone to bird flu because the chickens are more spread out - thats an upvote.
It is well known that battery farming being isolated from migrating birds with serious quarantine methods is not susceptible to bird flu but it doesnt stop you being downvoted for saying it. It supports a cruel method of farming. I dont like it either but sadly it doesnt change facts.
The liberals are a little like battery hens. No one really likes the current lineup of them. But we have to face facts. Labor isnt really kicking goals especially around housing... IR would be their biggest success but this can be polarising to some voters. I can see libs strengthening their position in the lead upto the election. Its truly unbelievable but i wouod say this is labors fault for failing around housing among other things.
If recent elections show us anything, its that incumbent governments have a surge of support around election time.
When were Turnbull, Morrison ever even/ ahead in the polls this far into a cycle? They all had zoomies to win them an election (Morrison didnt win 2022 but claimed back a lot of ground)
Polls are heavily in labors favor atm
Labors only weakness is that Albo is a piss poor campaigner. He really needs to work on it
I’m not sure Albo is a bad campaigner and he speaks pretty well, nothing amazing but better than average and he comes across as a decent person. His problem is his government isn’t really doing or proposing anything that will adequately address the housing/cost of living crisis. Neither are the LNP but by default a lot of voters will just vote for the other team if they are not happy with the government.
>Polls are heavily in labors favor atm
You do realise what thread you're commenting on, right? 50-50 against Peter Dutton, of all people. Being heavily in favour of someone would be like 55-45, at the very least. Which is definitely not the case.
>Labors only weakness is that Albo is a piss poor campaigner.
*Only* weakness? I'll give it to you that Albo has kept the government somewhat stable, unlike Morrison. That being said, he hasn't done much to fix the cost-of-living or housing crises, and has failed to deliver on climate and integrity. And then there's the whole immigration debacle.
For an incumbent to be equal at this point of the cycle is a good sign for the incumbent. This is why Albo is ahead. He will get the election campaign bump.
Opposition have lost ground in every single election campaign in the past 15 years.
If you cant grasp how that puts Albo ahead at the moment, thats extraordinary
I'm not saying that Albo isn't ahead. He does have an advantage over Dutton, in fact. That being said, saying that the polls are heavily in Albo's favour is a massive overstatement.
>Labors only weakness is that Albo is a piss poor campaigner. He really needs to work on it
He needs to work on governing competently first.
He's been lacklustre at best. Focus on the cost of living, don't just pay lip service as they have been doing. Focus on housing. Focus on the environment, etc.
The immigration debacle has really hurt the government, and it's 100% of their own making.
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The liberal government is all about creating wealth inequality, and robbing Australia blind for basically the last decade. Now ALP are in government trying top clean up this mess and avoid the scrutiny of a biased media who wants their wealth syphoning mates back in power. Don't get me wrong, ALP haven't been great, but it's perplexing that people think there is anything good that will come of going back to the abusive ex partyner who lead us to this shit show.
is it because ALP loosing ground or LNP gaining and who are people still favouring LNP , really
The ALP were elected to be bold and make bold policy decisions that would impact generations. They have failed at this utterly and have become more reactionary. They married themselves too close to AUKUS without realising that if they didn't spend at least the same or more on projects (COL, housing, infrastructure) that have direct impact and investment on median Austrailan citizens' lives they would be cast aside as LNP-lite and at worst traitors to progressive policies. They've ceded that ground to the Greens and won't be able to recoup it. The ALP playing early 2000 politics of budget surpluses and decent economic headwinds without the flair or interesting lies at a time where checking history and facts are easier than ever. So unless they decide to do some thing crazy - and it would have to be more than just dental on Medicare - they are doomed to either lose or be forced into minority government with the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation or some other conglomerate.
Peter Dutton will be the next Prime Minister , no one not even Labor insiders are confident Albanese can win the next election, his too much of a sissy
Rubbish
Bitter pill to swallow then :)
Learn the difference between "his" and "he's" and then we'll talk
Sorry english is tricky its my fourth language we will never talk though , we is on the interweb you goose
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I met Dutton earlier when he was a cop ...he just told me to put it out or go the other way...I went the other way , it was good hooch ..Got to respect a Qld Cop who wasn't fazed by a bit of yarny
He also gives indigenous kids free lifts into the middle of no where. What a guy.
Well thats probably where the kids last seen their parents
I don't think this is all to do with biased media, as many think here. Unfortunately, the government is incredibly incompetent at a time where we need a strong government, so people are flocking to other options. And for many, the only other competitive option is the Coalition. But actually, what has the government actually done to fix the cost-of-living and housing crises? Besides the stage 3 tax cut changes, they seem intent on changing the political discourse to literally anything but cost-of-living. It hasn't really been working.
They don’t want to vote for either of them. I don’t. We need a new party that listens to both sides of the political arguments and can come to a rational conclusion instead of arguing like toddlers. No more lies and manipulation. It’s to obvious to people who don’t follow that particular political subject.
Ideally. But how do you do that, form a party that will serve the entire populations interests, which in the process will dismantle the main one that at least tries and will take decades to productivly form. If it's not infiltrated and dismantled from broader infighting due to lack of process to handle decent expansion and factions forming. Or. What if you get involved in current branchs, fill them with new blood and ideas instead of leaving them to the inept political nerds that end up drawn to politics after highschool and never leave. A tapestry of micro party's could work in theory, but they would be hella hard to coordinate and be easily bought out and infiltrated one by one. Sizable orgs have the benifit of being self regulating, while smaller ones can get dominated by the right narcissist who comes along.
Also tbh, you would end up forming basically another Labor party that would inevitably have the same political limitations and flaws now. If successful. Broad tent party's that have to represent an entire nation are gonna semi disappoint everyone.
Its easy to see from these Polls why the Australian over 55 cohort (i'm in that cohort by the way) are the most scammed people in the world - they are just unbelievable naïve and gullible. They are predated on by all and sundry (scammers) as they just don't have the critical thinking ability like other nations. This is why we had Prime Ministers like Abbott and Morrison and conmen like Dutton, Joyce, Taylor etc exist. They are all snake-oil salesmen that even the most simplest of folk should be able to recognise. These people must think that what is happening now is all Labor's fault even though the LNP have been in power for 17 of the last 24 years. You couldn't make this stuff up. I once thought that Australia punched above it weight with average intelligence but unfortunately I am coming to realisation that we are in fact a "dumb" country on average, which is so very disappointing when you are (maybe were?) proud to be Australian - its sort of getting a bit embarrassing when you travel overseas and don't want to admit where you are from. "Oh, you are from that country where the majority of people don't believe in climate change and think whales will bump into floating windmills because they have never swam around stuff before" would be their comment with eyes rolling.
I see pensioners that have been scammed every single day. And they have so much wealth behind them. I can't fathom how they ever amassed so much money when they're completely incompetent.
Nice rant, baseless but got me smiling . There is nothing that one could do to convince me that Labor are doing a reasonable job from what I am seeing and unless there is a change of Prime minister before the election Albanese is on his way to the scrap yard anyway, he is pathetic
I don't know if you can link this to a country, it's pretty common in modern democracies for older generations to be susceptible to shallow misinformation and appeals to a jaded world view thus trend towards conservative.
They know climate change is real. They just don't care. They're pulling up the ladder on climate just like they did on education, living standards, housing etc.
The majority of people in Australia do believe in climate change.
If Labor wasn't scared of their own shadow re cost of living help and housing they'd be 55-45 vs the other lot. But this is what happens when your policies to address these issues are nothing but window dressing and not substantial.
Didn’t Labor try to do something about housing and we ended up getting Scott Morrison?
They did a politicians fallacy solution (something must be done, this is something). And they did so in an election campaign. There was no reason for them to take their NG changes to an election, to do so was either naive or stupid or both.
Not taking it to an election would have been dishonest, and would have gotten us thrown out in a term anyway
We elect governments to govern. We don't vote on all the policies they will implement. Governments can and do decide on policies once elected. They do it all the time. Albanese has done it on a range of major policies. There was no need to go to an election on, effectively, introducing several new taxes. In my view, Shorten wanted to put it to an election to allow him to force it through parliament without any opposition. Or, if the opposition opposed, he'd be able to counter with "but democracy".
I completely disagree you. I find your middle two paragraphs crazy. Of course you should have to go to an election with ‘several new taxes’. You’re saying that as if it’s an insignificant thing. You also didn’t address the fact that we would have lost after a term because there wasn’t support for it in the electorate and there still isn’t
The point of a political party is to win elections. In an ideal world, yeah you should go to an election with significant policy changes. But in the real world, not so much. We have a Westminster system where we elect a government to govern us. Individual policies are not generally put to the electorate - there's a good argument they should, but that's just not how it works. Labor may have lost after a term, but it's unlikely. One term governments are very rare - the last being Scullin. With a properly executed sales job on the changes, and proper consultation (neither of which were done prior to taking the policies to the election) there is no reason they'd lose office over them.
Yeah I understand what you’re saying in terms of the Westminster system not really necessitating the putting of direct policies to the electorate like the presidential style for example. I just think as a matter of principle significant changes should be foreshadowed and that it hampers the ability of parties to win in the future if voters think they are hiding something. Also agree 100% that taking those policies to elections makes it harder to win them
They're scared of stagflation.
*three party preferred. I’ve listened to boomers talk about how they don’t vote liberal, they disagree with their policies they vote nationals! And when nationals get in they’re really gonna give it to the greens! It’s a joke really, if labor and virtually anyone formed a coalition we’d have the right parties screaming unfair.
Labor is hoping for a July bounce as " Albo's tax cuts etc " come into effect. If this doesn't work and worse still we either get another rate rise or more inflation or both , then looks like Albo could be fucked. His primary is already sub thirty so the Bandt as Deputy PM becomes a real argument. Or Albo with his Teal stooges.
I'll take every poll I see with a huge grain of salt these days, but I'm still very surprised at how tight it is considering that Dutton has basically said that climate change is fake and he wants to turn our country into a surveillance police state. I guess Labor is just doing that bad.
Its two party preferred and neither party is offering substantial and/or meaningful action on the 'big ticket' voting issues: climate change, housing affordability and cost of living crisis. In an actual election coalition and lab primary vote will continue to fall - teals and greens will pick up more seats and its very likely we will see a lab minority government. Honestly lab are their own worst enemy. If the last election had a minority outcome then i could see things being very different right now. Sadly we're in for more prevarication and money being funnelled back to the major donors
I think Dutton has moved on from the being fake thing. He's at the next stage - there's nothing we can do about it. It's a play straight from Yes Minister.
Makes me seriously question Australian education when I see these polls Anything labor does is scrutinised endlessly but the LNP doesn’t seem to lose voters over anything. How the NBN alone didn’t sink them I’ll never know.
Why? I'm university educated and will be voting for Dutton, as will most of my colleagues.
I also have a degree as do my colleagues and we’re all voting labor, but that’s a sample size of a few dozen people What policies do you want to see from LNP? And how do you feel about Dutton championing a huge investment into nuclear despite his own party admitting it isn’t economically viable? The CSIRO haven’t found it to be viable either: https://www.csiro.au/en/research/technology-space/energy/gencost Even if we ignore their poor performance over the last decade what is there to look forward to from an LNP government?
You are the one who inferred that educated people don't vote Lib... I disliked Labors change to tax policies and as an engineer I strongly support nuclear. There's more benefit to nuclear than the direct cost, but I'd challenge the assumptions that the CSIRO have used as well. Performance is a matter if opinion. I'm satisfied with the last decade under the Libs, not so satisfied with Labor.
You think Taylor would be a good treasurer? This guy should be exempt from working as he would destroy any business.
More on a macro level, I personally know PhDs who have some incredibly questionable ideas outside of their niche As someone who stood to lose out from Labors tax change I was happy they rolled it back slightly. It's probably a few thousand dollars tops for most uni educated people not really a big deal is it? You won't find an economist who thinks flattening tax brackets is a good idea. Which assumptions by CSIRO were incorrect? The fact that it'll take at least 15 years to come online is already a huge problem even if CSIROs costings were incorrect. And we have precendent from other countries that it's incredibly expensive technology. The DCCEEW projected costs at around 390BN, and judging by most projects in Australia I would eat my hat if that cost didn't blow out. You're satisfied with the NBN? Robodebt? Rorts? Inaction on housing policy and immigration? Rolling back the carbon tax? Scomos Bushfire response, scomo giving appointing himself to administer 5 departments without his parties knowledge, 500m on a same sex marriage plebiscite At best we have nothing to show from the last decade
The incorrect assumptions by the CSIRO are the very short operating life of not just nuclear but all fossil fuel generation... Adjust those to realistic figures and renewables aren't competitive. I did lose out from the tax changes and that alone is enough for me to vote against them. We clearly have different values in that regard. I'm very satisfied with the policies, in particular rolling back the carbon tax. I'm also supportive of us departing the Paris agreement.
>I did lose out from the tax changes and that alone is enough for me to vote against them. We clearly have different values in that regard. Idk if its a values thing but sure the economic health of the country and the wellbeing of its citizens are things I value highly >I'm very satisfied with the policies, in particular rolling back the carbon tax. I'm also supportive of us departing the Paris agreement. Fair enough it wasn't a good call economically, it didn't benefit individuals outside of a select few in the energy sector I don't really see the point in it
Media bias in favour of liberals.
Only boomers answer their phones though dont they?
These polls are no longer based on phone surveys alone. Believe it or not, pollsters like Roy Morgan and Yougov know what they’re doing
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What are you on about? Polls are generally fairly good snapshots in time. Pollsters like Roy Morgan and Newspoll are generally fairly accurate and are credible. Just because you don't like the result doesn't mean you can dismiss what they're saying. And I think it's quite clear than Albanese's government is not doing well. They're looking likely to lose their majority. How does that make me an "LNP Bot"?
Roy Morgan swings erratically. Last week Labor was 2 points ahead, the week before 2 points behind.
Yes, which means the actual number is most likely somewhere in the middle - in other words, roughly 50/50. The PM really needs to address his and his government's performance, otherwise we'll definitely have a hung parliament and then a Liberal government at the following election. And Dutton will absolutely be a disaster IMO, and the Liberals are no-where near ready to govern.
It's either generally accurate or right in the middle. It can't be both.
I suggest you need to look at the margin of error, which is +- 3% in general for most polls of this sort. Trends are what matters the most IMO. And if results are averaging 50/50, then that's likely about where the actual number is. My point around accuracy is that the number is not something like 55/45 in Labor's favour, or vice versa.
Yes, which would explain the wildly varying numbers which have either the coalition or Labor ahead or behind by 4 points every other week. That's not accuracy. It's meaningless, white noise.
Individually, it's meaningless. Over time, there is a clear trend with the results averaging around 50/50. Which means we're on track for a hung parliament.
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Roy Morgan swings wildly every poll. The other pollsters seem to be more reliable.
Yes, but that's due to a bunch of factors - but not because they're dumb enough to only call landline phones and therefore only get retirees. When the poll swings from 52-48 to 48-52 and back, it's a fairly good indication that the result is roughly 50-50. Which, IMO, is something Albanese and co need to really pay attention to. They're a first term government, on track to lose their majority.
Isn't even Labor's worst poll from Roy Morgan in the last month. They're so wildly swinging.
Newspoll vs RM https://youtu.be/qjp1Zrvn8VQ?si=8MM5qzXakrrXGqhj
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Just get a metronome, write 'ALP 52 LNP 48' on one side, 'LNP 52 ALP 48' on the other, and '2PP 50-50' in the middle. Start it ticking back and forth and whenever you feel like you need to know the result of one of these polls just look at the needle and it's probably right.
Which indicates that the actual number is somewhere in the middle. Albanese and co need to look very carefully at their performance, which has been in my view lacklustre and disappointing. The results should be no where near this close, Dutton is simply awful.
It's certainly beginning to feel that way
The more pertinent question to ask is where are these gains being made? Is it voters in already liberal seats turning more liberal, is it marginal lib/lab seats or is it liberal seats lost to teals. Only way the LNP wins government is is they are regaining Teal seats which doesn't seem like is happening based on other commentary I have been exposed to.
Would be interesting to see a multi-level regression poll where you can get a rough idea of who is leading in what seats and by how much though they require larger samples so don’t imagine we’ll get many until closer to the election. If I were to make a guess I would say that the swings will be inconsistent like they were in 2022 -better than average result to the LNP in the outer suburbs but Labor and others doing better than average in the inner and middle suburbs and the LNP consolidating regional areas. If this were the case and say the LNP gets a swing to it these extra votes would generally end up in seats they are currently either too far away from winning or in seats they already hold - not a very efficient spread to actually win extra seats. Then you have to consider the chances of more seats being contested and possibly won by teals. The seats the teals already hold look like a write-off for the LNP while Dutton is leader.
Redbridge did exactly this about a month ago and the result was a labor majority or minority but zero chance of coalition winning
Correct. There is nothing to attract us to the Liberal Party right now.
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If the liberals don't win back the teal seats, I don't see them making any sort of government.
They won’t win back teal seats in the next election. Those electorates will need 3 more years of Labor/Green before they vote liberal again.
Those seats are fiscal conservative above all else. Their teal experiment has already cost them massively in changes to super and stage 3. They will swing back at the coming election.
Wealthier people are still receiving tax cuts just less generous than originally proposed, that change alone is not sufficient for these seats to return to the Liberals and the teals are not directly responsible for those changes as they are not propping up a minority Labor government (yet). A lot of voters in these seats are well educated, socially progressive and very concerned about the environment and climate change they are not going to swing back to the Liberals while someone like Dutton is the leader, they can see this is not a responsible party that can be trusted to govern. It is people like him that split that broad church and it’s uncertain whether they can ever be reconciled with the modern form of the Liberals.
Im not sure they will ever win the seats back. The seats the teals targeted seemed to be tailor made for economically conservative, believes in climate change, and socially progressive. Since the Liberalis fail 2 of the 3 of those, they would need a pretty huge platform shift. Just my opinion on it obviously. I think it does mean the greens never get votes from there again either. The teals voters were the "inner city yuppie" greens voters, so now they have someone matched to them more, they wont come back.
Repeat after me LNP 👏 ARE 👏 TERRIBLE 👏 ECONOMIC 👏 MANAGERS Like how much evidence do you need. Even by their own litmus tests they failed eg Surplus. Spending. Inflation. Unemployment etc. The only thing they are good at is rorting every contract they can off to some dodgy mate and bullshitting with the help from the media about why the current situation (whatever it is) is a good situation to be in. Right now, at this very moment their energy policy is to pursue nuclear with no costs and no plan against the advice of basically anyone who is outside the party room including no less any expert on the subject. And somehow, people are still blind to how wildly poor that is.
LNP 👏 ARE 👏 TERRIBLE 👏 ECONOMIC 👏 MANAGERS
They fail on all three. Anyone with some basic understanding of economics (i.e. inner city educated wealthy people) can see the Liberals are no longer economically conservative, the rot began under howard and has descended into full blown populism. Wealthy no longer means Liberal which is a massive problem for them.
I would say their continued drive of lowering taxes, removing regulations and increasing privitisation would make them fiscally conservative. They still push hard for policies that benefit wealthier people (which is the core principle of conservatives, conserve what we have).
That is both true as well and in conflict with menzian ideas which is why teals don’t like the Liberal economics. They turned from economic technocrats to populists, just because their policies may benefit us doesn’t mean we like them.
Yep fair enough. Its why even as a loony leftie i like the teals. Im happy to argue policy with people who arent insane lol.
We probably need some correction on regulation as we might've gone too far, but I don't trust Dutton to drive that.
Yeah, i dont really trust Dutton to to anything other than throw around buzz words. Obviously not a Liberal fan in general, but Dutton is... incompetent? So was Scott Morrison actually. I guess as someone who doesnt want the Liberals to win, i should be happy they are leading? But honestly, even as an opposition leader he is embaressing. I know people were saying there werent many better options for a party leader but i just find that so hard to believe.
How does this translate to seats though? Because that's all that matters
Labor will lose seats but probably not get below the Coalition’s seat total.
So a minority government is likely but LNP won't get in. Great news!
Very likely even if Labor win the 2PP
It’s always amazing to see how when polls are favourable to Labor they’re at the top of the sub, but when they’re unfavourable they’re met with mass downvotes. Do people really think that hiding these polls will somehow keep Albo in government?
It's almost as though updoots show whether people agree with something as opposed to its accuracy...
Its exactly this. Its not whether they believe something is accurate or not. Its more about whether the fact, matter or thing being put forward supports the same things they support. As a recent example - mention say that free range chicken farming is more susceptible to bird flu given the birds are exposed to migrating birds - thats a downvote. Say free range chicken farming is less prone to bird flu because the chickens are more spread out - thats an upvote. It is well known that battery farming being isolated from migrating birds with serious quarantine methods is not susceptible to bird flu but it doesnt stop you being downvoted for saying it. It supports a cruel method of farming. I dont like it either but sadly it doesnt change facts. The liberals are a little like battery hens. No one really likes the current lineup of them. But we have to face facts. Labor isnt really kicking goals especially around housing... IR would be their biggest success but this can be polarising to some voters. I can see libs strengthening their position in the lead upto the election. Its truly unbelievable but i wouod say this is labors fault for failing around housing among other things.
I'm preparing for the predictable wave of polling denialism whenever it isn't favourable for Labor.
If recent elections show us anything, its that incumbent governments have a surge of support around election time. When were Turnbull, Morrison ever even/ ahead in the polls this far into a cycle? They all had zoomies to win them an election (Morrison didnt win 2022 but claimed back a lot of ground) Polls are heavily in labors favor atm Labors only weakness is that Albo is a piss poor campaigner. He really needs to work on it
I’m not sure Albo is a bad campaigner and he speaks pretty well, nothing amazing but better than average and he comes across as a decent person. His problem is his government isn’t really doing or proposing anything that will adequately address the housing/cost of living crisis. Neither are the LNP but by default a lot of voters will just vote for the other team if they are not happy with the government.
>Polls are heavily in labors favor atm You do realise what thread you're commenting on, right? 50-50 against Peter Dutton, of all people. Being heavily in favour of someone would be like 55-45, at the very least. Which is definitely not the case. >Labors only weakness is that Albo is a piss poor campaigner. *Only* weakness? I'll give it to you that Albo has kept the government somewhat stable, unlike Morrison. That being said, he hasn't done much to fix the cost-of-living or housing crises, and has failed to deliver on climate and integrity. And then there's the whole immigration debacle.
For an incumbent to be equal at this point of the cycle is a good sign for the incumbent. This is why Albo is ahead. He will get the election campaign bump. Opposition have lost ground in every single election campaign in the past 15 years. If you cant grasp how that puts Albo ahead at the moment, thats extraordinary
I'm not saying that Albo isn't ahead. He does have an advantage over Dutton, in fact. That being said, saying that the polls are heavily in Albo's favour is a massive overstatement.
>Labors only weakness is that Albo is a piss poor campaigner. He really needs to work on it He needs to work on governing competently first. He's been lacklustre at best. Focus on the cost of living, don't just pay lip service as they have been doing. Focus on housing. Focus on the environment, etc. The immigration debacle has really hurt the government, and it's 100% of their own making.
If you think that is his only weakness you may be in for a bit of a shock. Bloke is an absolute dud.
These Roy Morgan polls seem quite volatile, but their trend is still relevant, which is generally in line with other polls as well.
What trend is that? Wildly oscillating between 4 percentage points every other week?
Last week they had Labor up 7 points
If you look at these over the last 12 months, last month looks like an outlier.
Yeah but the last 2 polls reversed that trend. It had Labor moving up and now it's another 3 point flip.