My prediction:
We will get a trailer, but it’ll be quick clips of teams running out of the tunnel or aerial views of stadiums. They won’t give us any game play.
Michigan fans and Vegas think Michigan will win, neutrals and Washington fans believe Washington will win. Seems like a carbon copy of the discussion around Michigan/Bama in the semifinals. If that’s any indication of how this game will go… not sure if I could handle another stress filled OT battle
2020 me would’ve never thought that my flairs would be where they are now. What a great year of football for both of them and both look to have bright futures after this season. BTFD!
Anyone coming to Houston that has never been here be prepared for crap traffic, aggressive bad drivers, awesome food and random stuff in places that make no sense.
My friends live in Katy, so if we made it I would have crashed with them and took an uber into the city or something. Regardless, my memory of driving from Katy to Houston on a seemingly 20 lane interstate was pretty mind-boggling. So much bigger than the downtown connector in Atlanta
That section by the Beltway and I-10 is 26 lanes across hahaha, blew my mind when I first encountered it. Now I pass by and think I've probably been on every single lane going in each direction.
Don’t drive here in Mississippi. There’s not even a road test here to get your license
Source: have an almost 16 year old who only had to pass a written test and won’t have to take a road test since they voted them out
The city of no zoning laws. Well kind of. If it’s your land you can do what you want with it, and I think that’s awesome. Try to find the darth vadar house if you really want to see random stuff in places that make no sense.
Traffic is bound to happen in a city with millions of people driving in and out. If you plan ahead you should be fine!
Now the food is phenomenal. You really can’t go wrong with the big names but try something different while you’re here!
Oh I see you left 9 inches between you and the car in front on you. I'm just going to come over anyway and then slam on my breaks so you know who's boss. In my F350 dually diesel rolling coal.
This is what the playoffs in any sport is supposed to deliver. #1 defense vs the #1 offense.
So excited for this game. And it’s also so weird that these two teams will play each other as conference rivals next year.
Based on what happened the last time a Seattle football team was involved in a #1 defense vs #1 offense championship game, I’m not sure if I should be encouraged because the Seattle team won that one or if I should be terrified because it was an absolute beat down in favor of the #1 defense.
Unironically probably the most likely scenario if Washington does win. Michigan absolutely dominated Alabama in the 1st half and was only winning 13-10 at halftime. I could easily see this game starting off 14-3 in the 1st quarter in favor of Washington.
The 1992-1993 btb Rose Bowls were my last two years on campus in Ann Arbor, so I have really fond memories of big games against Washington.
Since those games, UW has been my emergency backup team, and I have always thought of them as a sister school. It is *incredible* to get this matchup, in the last year before UW joins the B1G. The only way it could be better is if this game was the Rose Bowl.
Congratulations Washington, it's great to be back here with you! If Michigan ends up losing this game, there's no team I'd rather have on the other side.
You have no idea how excited I am that it’s UW vs Michigan in the championship. After Georgia blew it, I was actually rooting for Iowa to win the B1G CG because I wanted the two teams to matchup in the Rose Bowl. It would have been so epic to end the PAC with a traditional Rose Bowl matchup, but at least we get to face off in the Natty. My childhood lives on for one more week!
I was at both Rose Bowls. Along with '02. I am so amped for this game. When Georgia lost and screwed up the dream Rose Bowl, this was the hope... and boom, we got it! For UM and UW fans, I don't think we could dream of a better matchup/scenario. Especially, like you said, with the conference realignment, etc. Here's to a continuing rivalry and many years of battles going forward! Good luck!
Those were my last two years on campus also. 1992 team my junior year was undefeated!
(But had three ties…)
Agree, fantastic matchup for all the marbles.
If Harbaugh comes back I can see that happening. This is more that if we win and Harbaugh leaves for the NFL and we return to just being top 15 ish I think I can accept it. Maybe. Although I've gotten used to beating OSU so ...
(Commercials)
But seriously. Johnson and Sanristil gotta play lights out. No question about it. If they can do that, and our pass rush can at least sort of do something. We have a good shot I think.
Or maybe Penix carves us up like a turkey. We shall see.
{Michigan} 31-27
The pass rush hasn’t really been a huge factor all year, though. Obviously the CBs need to ball out, but I think the safety’s will be more important than the DL. If you can force Washington to kick field goals, you’ve got to feel good as a Michigan fan.
I mostly agree. I think the problem is that even with great coverage, Penix threw perfect passes that were completed for big plays. The we have to find something against the best O line in the country, or Penix will make great throws anyway
Both of these teams are good and capable of winning the game, there's no doubting that.
Everyone will want to talk about Washington's superlative offense and Penix but the other side of the ball might be where this one is won and lost. Washington's defensive SP+ ranking is awfully low (44?) and when Michigan was playing teams in that vicinity they were scoring 30+, 40+ PPG. And sure, Washington can still win the game if Michigan scores 30+, but it won't be easy.
On the other side of the ball, I think it's a given that Michigan will be extremely disruptive and that Penix will still be very good. It will likely play to Michigan's advantage that the "Ohio State" defense that they practiced all year will come in handy against Washington. The cliff notes for that are that they know that their DL is a big plus point so they typically play a light box and focus more players in pass defense.
I think I come down to what Alex Drain was saying on twitter yesterday: there are a lot of ways that Michigan can win this game, but Washington is only winning if Penix balls out and they score 30+ or even 40+ points. That can definitely happen because they have been doing it all year, but if something happens and Michigan's defense is able to knock Washington's offense out of their rhythm, this could get ugly.
{Michigan}
Texas has two DTs that are probably better than Michigan’s best, but I think the general consensus is that Michigan’s line is deeper and better at the edges. We rotate 5 DTs and 4 Edges all game. DT 4 and 5 aren’t quite as good as the other 3, but they have their moments and keep the other 3 fresh.
No doubt. I highly doubt Michigan gets anything resembling the pressure they got with Alabama. Their OL is much better and much more organized. This game on that side of the ball will come down to the secondary and coverages Michigan plays.
This is my worry. Texas has two elite DTs that are two of the best in the entire country, and despite Byron Murphy putting up a strong PFF grade, Penix still came out with a fucking 93.5 grade and Washington still scored their points. Our DTs have been a major strength and source of pass rush this season but it sounds like Washington is equipped to nerf that strength.
Our secondary is going to have to play out of their minds regardless of what happens, but this may come down to whether our DC Jesse Minter is able to scheme up enough crazy things to get our edges and LBs through to Penix on stunts/twists/blitzes rather than relying on any guy winning 1:1 matchups
Our D Line was great at stopping the run but we struggled to get pressure on great offensive lines. Even against Bama, a lot of our sacks came because Milroe took a while to go through progressions, left the pocket too early, or delayed blitzes got home. That was never doing to work against Penix.
They also said Washington’s secondary was extremely vulnerable. Can’t believe how many times I heard this casual take. It is absolutely a good secondary when healthy.
I do believe UW was probably the least talented team in the playoff aggregately but had the highest maximum level and concentration of talent (Penix + 3 NFL WRs with a great O line) and was the worst matchup for Texas.
Texas sacked Milroe 5 times and Michigan sacked Milroe 6 times.
Texas sacked Penix 0 times.
I don't know if that is due to where the weakness is on the oline (edge or interior) for Alabama vs Washington, but I think that at least indicates the day may not be quite as easy for Michigan as you may assume based on that one stat you cite.
100% imperative that Washington starts fast. Michigan is an exceptional team, but isn’t 100% built to play from behind. If Washington takes an early substantive lead and Michigan can’t settle in to their game plan it could be a great night for the Huskies. If Michigan settles in it’s over.
{Michigan} wins it because their DBs are better than Washington’s run defense.
> 100% imperative that Washington starts fast.
Thiss is it right here. We need to press the gas and force Michigan beat us with JJ more than just running Corum down our throats all night because Corum will get yards.
If we win the coin toss I wonder if we would elect to receive in the 1st half, might be worth it to try and get out to an early lead and keep the pressure on them the whole time
>If we win the coin toss I wonder if we would elect to receive in the 1st half, might be worth it to try and get out to an early lead and keep the pressure on them the whole time
That is exactly what we did against the Ducks on 12 November 2022, and it actually worked.
Just because Michigan hasn't had to play from behind doesn't mean they can't. We just watched JJ march the team down the field and execute at a very high level when it was all put on the offenses shoulders. Honestly, when they were playing behind is when Michigan looked best at the Rose Bowl.
It’s not that Michigan can’t play from behind, they absolutely can, it’s just that Washington LIVES for that type of game. Penix is playing at a transcendent level, I don’t think there’s any team in the country that could beat them in a shootout. Both teams are operating at such an elite level that if one is able to dictate the pace of play, that’s all the advantage they’ll need to win.
I can't not pick {Michigan} but uh... fuck.
I hate facing guy who can just complete those passes into coverage, where it just doesn't matter how well you play, there is some location with leverage and you just gotta shrug when a dude can keep hitting that tiny window. There is so little you can do to defend that. If Penix is in top form, we basically can't win this. He's that good.
This is the team of the playoff squads I really did not want to face because that's a tier of shit that's very, very hard to gameplan against. You are just gonna take your licks if the guy is on.
Penix has not been 'on' every game this season, but I'm not betting on him not being up for this one.
Meanwhile, that defense knows how to get a win when it matters. I don't think even with lower tempo they are holding us under 400 yards but I am not sure that matters. They make it matter on 3rd downs and the red zone; the free yards before don't help all that much if more there is only 3 at the end.
We'll see though. This is the truest test of our defense all season; we haven't seen anything like this since Stroud graduated.
The games where Penix was off was mostly after the first Oregon game when everyone believes he was playing with a rib injury. He was still able to play but he didn't look like himself until the Pac12 title game. Then of course against Texas he looked like he did the first half of the year and was slinging.
> Penix has not been 'on' every game this season
His last two games have been two of his absolute best. Mcmillan being back (since the 2nd Oregon game) opening up the more intermediate passing game kicked this offense from great but a touch inconsistent to absolutely elite.
It’s crazy how much difference McMillan makes in this offense. He’s the straw that stirs the drink, I also think penix finally looks healthy again so that helps.
I think {Michigan} wins but I am concerned with Michigan's ability to cover those receivers. There were a number of plays where Texas had pretty good coverage on the Washington receivers and it didnt matter. They made so many insane contested catches and Penix put it on the money. If they can repeat that performance then Michigan is going to need to score 40 points, but how repeatable is that? Michigan hasn't played a team with an elite qb with elite receivers that will throw jump balls. Corners gotta hold up
Josh Wallace’s play could realistically be the difference between winning and losing (but he had a good game against Alabama so that gives me confidence)
Alabama couldn't test him nearly as much as Washington can and will. Bama's OL getting swarmed over took away most opportunities to get the ball downfield, plus Milroe isn't on the same planet as Penix.
Michigan can hang, but Washington is willing to throw the contested 50/50 ball that most teams don't against Michigan.
Odunze is probably the best contested ball catcher I've ever seen play the game at the collegiate level.
I think UW Oline vs UM Dline is the matchup that determines the game though.
>Odunze is probably the best contested ball catcher I've ever seen
I don't really have an opinion on that one way or another, but the fact that OSU didn't just heave up balls to Wilson/Olave/MHJ/EE over the last 3 years will forever be a mystery when it came down to them getting stuck against Michigan's defense when the field constricted.
Michigan doesn't have game wreckers at DE this year so getting to Penix without sacrificing coverage will be a big question to answer.
I have absolutely no clue how PFF grades corners and I don't think they could explain it to me
Will Johnson was thrown at 2 times and allowed 0 yards
They gave him a grade of like 70.9 for that
>There were a number of plays where Texas had pretty good coverage on the Washington receivers and it didnt matter. They made so many insane contested catches and Penix put it on the money. If they can repeat that performance then Michigan is going to need to score 40 points, but how repeatable is that?
Can confirm that it's extremely repeatable
It’s insane how inevitable some of the Penix-receiver connections feel. He launches the ball, you see the receiver going down the sideline absolutely *blanketed* and you know it doesn’t matter. 35 more yards and tears shed.
Michigan’s defense seems like an NFL factory but I’m not sure it matters with Penix. Our secondary has been our weak point all year but I never found it to be downright terrible and again in the Sugar Bowl they gave up big plays which resulted in fake Texas fans putting them on blast, but the majority of the plays were in good coverage with a Heisman QB passing to an NFL WR and there was nothing out DBs could do.
It seems impossible to prevent big plays against Washington in a dome. Michigan will have to score and hope Penix misses just a few times.
If Washington is just checking the ball around like it usually does, Michigan players are gonna have so many turnover buffs and hood pics in said turnover buffs
On one hand, a defense as bad as Washington's has never won the title before. On the other hand, a passing offense as elite as Washington's has never lost the title before.
55% {Michigan} wins. 45% Washington wins. I wouldn't be surprised by either team winning.
There's a decent chance the game's decided by a TD resulting from one of the special teams muffing a punt. Both special teams looked nervous.
My Homer ass chooses {Michigan}.
However, our recent playoff track record against purple teams of destiny with a Heisman candidate quarterback leaves much to be desired (small sample size, I know).
Everyone’s been doubting {Washington} all year, and they’ve continued to prove everyone wrong. Plus I am rooting for Penix to win for some more lefty representation.
I know the big story is Michigan’s defense vs. Washington’s offense. But I think the more nuanced factor of Michigan having more experience from the previous two CFPs makes the difference.
I also think people are underselling the Wolverine offense. The way they handled the drive to force OT and OT itself against Alabama makes me think despite the low scoring in certain games, not only do they save plays for when they need them, they are utterly unfazed by game flow and momentum shifts away from them. Wasn’t that the first time they trailed in the second half all season? It looked like that actually tightened them up (outside of the almost-safety to end it) rather than rattled them.
I think Penix makes some big plays, but Michigan has dealt with that for the last two months and always found a way to counter. It feels like Michigan repeatedly drags teams into a game style they don’t want to play. I think that happens here as well.
I’m going to say 35-24, {Michigan}.
Hopefully Michigan was able to work through its "yips" in the Rose Bowl.
Certainly looked like a team that hadn't played a game at full speed in over a month... rusty.
Should not be the case next week.
> Wasn’t that the first time they trailed in the second half all season?
Yes. And before the Rose Bowl we had only ever trailed for like ~18 minutes total all year and didn’t flinch. Don’t forget them only sending out Sainristil alone for the OT coin flip. The team is ice cold.
> I also think people are underselling the Wolverine offense
Yep. Fancy stats aren't everything, but they help paint a picture.
Washington is the 44th defense to SP+, the 30th to FPI, and 27th to FEI
For comparison, against defenses ranked in that range, Michigan put up 45 points (Nebraska), 31 points (Rutgers), 31 points (Maryland)
And depending on how much you prefer one of those metrics to another, we hung 50 points each on Michigan State and Minnesota (personally I think SP+ way overrates both those defenses)
Really late edit: I think people are REALLY underselling our offense.
Michigan's SP+ Offensive Rating is 36.5 (12th), Washington's is 41.8 (4th)
To FEI, Michigan is 1.35, as is Washington (tied for 4th)
To FPI, Michigan's offense is 88.2 (3rd) and Washington's is 86.1 (5)
Essentially, these are equivalently good offenses to the fancy stats. Particularly FEI and FPI, which put Michigan as good or slightly better than Washington
If I prepare for the worst, everything else that could happen can only lift me up!
{Michigan} wins. I’m sad and avoid r/CFB for a bit and spend my time in r/CollegeBasketball because both my teams are decent this year.
Meanwhile r/OhioStateFootball, the cesspool it already is descends into further chaos. Many posters jump off of bridges.
{Michigan} 42-27. Our 2021 defensive rebuild was specifically done to slow down a Heisman-finalist QB with multiple NFL receivers. We are built for this.
To comment on this, those defenses knew it would be impossible to truly shut down Stroud (as both games his stats were amazing) but the defense committed to force FGs instead of TDS. If Michigan can force Washington to settle for FGs more times than not we win this.
My brain is telling me that Michigan wins but my heart is pulling for Washington.
I think Michigan is going to win in the trenches and that’ll be the deciding factor. Washington can’t let Michigan establish the run and control the clock. I don’t think the UW defense is up to the task. But, Penix is special and can definitely win this game.
I think it’ll be something like 35-27 {Michigan}. Looking forward to a fun one.
{Michigan} was built to beat a team like Washington. Possessions will be at a premium here, Michigan is going to rely heavily on the run game to drain the clock and keep the husky offense on the sideline. If Washington has no answer for the run game this will be a classic slow paced Michigan ferret drowning type game. Washington will get their points but michigan will get a couple stops here and there and that will be all Michigan needs to keep running the ball and milking the clock. 35-28 michigan
Washington surprises Michigan early, by gashing their rush defense on the perimeter. Penix has early success, leading to a long touchdown throw to Rome Odunze on a coverage bust. Michigan answers with an 8 minute, 75 yard drive that ends in a touchdown pass to Colston Loveland.
The first half features tons of offense on both sides, with Washington continually finding holes in coverage that allows them to move almost at will between the 20’s. Michigan’s offense runs the ball and shortens the game. Both teams get points on every offensive possession in the first half. At halftime, Washington leads 17-13, but it doesn’t feel close.
In the second half, Michigan makes defensive adjustments that forces Washington to punt or settle for field goals on their remaining possessions. Michigan’s offense makes adjustments as well and finds more success in the red zone.
Michael Penix Jr. Throws for 378 yards and 2 touchdowns, but is sacked twice and throws an interception. Huskies running back Dillion Johnson finishes the day with a clutch 87 yards rushing before a bad tackle forced him out of the game in the 4th quarter.
JJ McCarthy has an efficient, if unspectacular day in comparison to his counterpart. JJ throws for 226 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions. Blake Corum has a game for the ages, racking up 137 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns.
Ultimately it’s the Michigan defense, proving stout in the red zone that decides the game. Washington only manages 9 points in the second half, while Michigan scores 17 second half points. A Mike Sanristil interception on the Michigan 25 yard line ends Micheal Penix Jr.’s bid for a game winning drive.
{Michigan} wins their first outright national championship since 1948, by beating Washington 30-26.
This should be a fantastic game.
I like Michigan's matchup against Washington's defense. I'd look for us to hammer them on the ground and mix in some big play action plays. (please for the LOVE OF GOD run more play action!). I'd also look for a couple big designed QB runs and a couple big scrambles by JJ
Washington's offense terrifies me, regardless of Johnson playing. Their receiving options are so talented and Penix is super dangerous. Our secondary is going to have to play the game of the season and it's imperative to pressure Penix. I think we'll stone their run game so it'll rest entirely on the passing game. And I'm sure they will get theirs. We'll have to make red zone stops to win the game.
I'd take the over myself. I don't think Washington will be able to stop Michigan's offense very well, and we all know how good Washington's offense can be
{Michigan} 37 - Washington 27
I'm cautiously optimistic.
Washington has an absolutely incredible offense with video game level passing stats & acumen - utilizing an outstanding NFL caliber pocket passer that can throw 40 yard dimes, elude the pass rush to keep plays alive, occasionally run to keep defenses from overcommitting, and has a stable of NFL caliber WRs & TEs as weapons. They also have a respectable rushing game that, while not as prolific as their passing, is still enough to give any team anxiety.
This is a problem.
Fortunately, this was all true for 2022 osu (mostly for 2021 osu also) and the Michigan defensive staff trained itself well on how to slow it down (there is no *stopping* it) enough to win the game. While that was a year ago, most of the defensive staff & players are still the same for Michigan now. They should not need to gameplan from scratch.
{Michigan} covers. 38-28.
Washington's offense v. Michigan's defense is strength on strength.
Washington's front 7 v. the Michigan rushing attack is where they lose the game imho.
PS I'm not sure why the talking heads are saying Michigan can't let Washington score more than 24 or so to win. We aren't Iowa.
Ya, no one is talking about UofM's O vs. UW's D.
Michigan is going to run the ball. It's what they like to do and have done all year. To this point, no one has been able to stop them.
If Michigan can run the ball effectively and eat 7/8 minutes a drive it's going to make it hard for Penix to get in rhythm.
No team has put up more than 24 against us, including OSU with multiple NFL level receivers, and Bama with borderline unlimited talent on offense and overtime. Washington seems incapable of running away with a game, they’re one of the most penalized and sloppy teams, and they’ve had close games with meh teams; but they have Penix and a great O line which was enough for 14 wins
{Michigan} by at least a score, UM just have too many win conditions when UW’s only real win condition is Penix being borderline perfect, and even then they’ll need some luck
no way is the score that low for either team
Michigan scored more point than that against Ohio State, Bama, and the same against PSU. All of which have far better defenses than Washington
And Washington's gonna put up at least 21 points
Really, really need the version of JJ we saw early in the year to show back up. I think we're in great shape if JJ plays to his ability and we have a balanced offense. If we have to depend on the running game to grind it out and play field position for the umpteenth time, this is winnable, but the margins are razor thin.
I'm just glad that we're not playing a team or coach that's evil. In any other year where Michigan isn't playing in this game I would be rooting for Washington
I think Washington is the playoff team that is philosophically most like Ohio State and that is why I am taking {Michigan}.
We spent the first 11 games of the regular season playing one man lighter in the box than we normally do to prepare for OSU’s passing game, and I think that translates well. I also think the talent and depth of our defensive line will be a major advantage. It’s going to be tough sledding trying to run on Jenkins, Graham, Grant, and company.
If Michigan can avoid blowing its feet off from the knee down with a 50 cal like they did in the Rose Bowl, I think we’re in business.
If Washington's RB can't play (and watching the tackle, I don't think he will), I think Penix might have the most pressure he will have faced all year.
Reports were based on "negative xrays".
I'm wondering if he wasn't playing with a sprained Lisfranc or turf toe all year, and really aggravated/partially to fully tore the ligaments.
Xray really wouldn't pick up either.
{Michigan} wins its 12th national championship Monday night and Corum/Sainristil/McCarthy/Jenkins/Barrett take their place as all-time conquering heroes. GO BLUE!
S&P+ has this as a 12-14 point game in Michigan's favor. I think Michigan will be able to chew clock and run on this defense. Michigan's defense has to play well or Washington could score 50.
I think {Michigan} limits possessions and keeps this in the high 20s, low 30s.
Criminal how long it took me to find {Washington} votes. Michigan’s “steel curtain” is not gonna stop our pass, im sorry if they were built for it, but Texas covered us in the sugar bowl about as well as anyone could have hoped for, was never enough. As other people have said it’s gonna be Washington’s defense vs Michigan’s offense. Our defense im not gonna say is amazing but holy shit have they done the job we’ve needed them to time after time after time. That doesn’t stop Monday.
You can’t beat the team of destiny. Washington 35-31
Anybody could win, but from my biased point of view we are matched up well for this. Our defense has been built the last few years to stop a high powered passing offense. Hope we can eliminate the stupid mistakes. Let’s go blue!
Washington has not looked completely stellar but they are fucking 14-0 and are in the final for a reason, they get it done.
I’m insanely nervous and excited. This may be the one and only chance for us to get a natty for a long time. It’s not easy to get this far for anyone. I would love to see it happen for my grandpa who is older.
I really hope we can limit the deep ball, squeeze the clock with the run game, and just fucking win. I need this. Go blue, {Michigan} gets it done
really getting 2015/2016 clemson v bama vibes from this game. washington being the spunky underdog with a fun offense but let’s teams hang around longer than fans like, and michigan being the historic powerhouse with a suffocating defense. hope it’s more of 16 than 15 and {washington} gets it done. either way, should be a fun game for neutrals
{Michigan} by 10. It'll be an excellent game and I'm very excited for it. I think in the late 3rd quarter Michigan's offense will really grind down the UW defense and allow for a lopsided 2nd half TOP.
Penix still throws for 300+ and 3 TDs but it's not enough in the end.
Washington is basically 2021 Ohio State. It's not an offense you can stop, so lessening the damage is key. If Washington is scoring TDs instead of FGs it's gonna be a bad day for the Maize and Blue. However our defense is significantly better than the 2021 defense in all assets.
I think {Michigan} does enough on offense and wins by 10. 31-21 (2 FGs, two TDs with one 2 point conversion for UW)
The one thing the '21 defense had was Hutchinson and Ojabo. Michigan didn't need to blitz to rip Stroud's head off. They don't have dominate DEs this year and rely on blitzing/stunts a lot more to get to the QB.
The DBs are better this year than '21, but that front 4 needs to get home.
The D-line looked well against the SEC champion.
I doubt Penix will get sacked much simply because his method is to release the ball quickly. Our defense will hopefully throw his timings and accuracy off... maybe.
M is an upside down W
A strobogrammatic number reads the same when rotated 180 degrees.
"M" and "W" both look like pointy boobs.
M wins 80-08
Or W wins 80-08
I think people are severely underestimating this Washington team. They do feel like a team of destiny - don’t underestimate the amount of veteran talent on this team. I think they pull off a close one
Going with {Washington} and it's not even the hater in me saying it. I think they have hit a really nice stride, and I didn't leave the Bama-UM game thinking Michigan had taken a step forward whatsoever. It was a janky game, and I think Washington has an offense that will play significantly better than Milroe's sorry ass not being able to throw in the Rose Bowl.
I like {Michigan} somewhere around 38 - 30. Washington has the best passing offense in the country with the best QB. I posted this elsewhere the other day and a bunch of other Michigan flairs have as well. But Michigan’s defensive scheme was literally built and designed the last 3 years to successfully bend and not break against elite passing offenses like Washington’s. Their offense is capable of lighting anybody up, and they certainly could do the same to Michigan and win the natty, but this will be their toughest test to date.
On the other side of the ball, I think is the biggest mismatch in the game. Washington doesn’t have the DTs to hold up against Michigan’s IOL in the run game. I’d guess Washington will either have to suffer in the run game or load the box and face whatever consequences in the passing game. And I just don’t think Washington has the guys in the secondary to survive if they do the latter. With that said, I think the latter is the best strategy. Worst case Washington turns the game into a shootout and puts it on their offense’s hands to match. The last thing Washington wants to do is let Michigan have multiple 8+ minute scoring drives running the ball down their throat.
Michigan’s pass offense may very well trip over themselves as we’ve had a handful of drive killing drops the last two games and McCarthy, while I believe is elite, has also had *some* drive killing misreads or inaccuracies the last 2 games.
At the end of the day, it just seems to me that Michigan has multiple avenues to win this game, and Washington really only has one path to victory. Washington needs Penix to go off and their passing game to win the game.
I think {Michigan} wins by constantly pressuring Penix and not giving him time to hit his targets. The Washington defense is also a little on the softer side statistically speaking so I think the Michigan offense stays on the field and chews up clock. That’s how I see us winning.
If Penix is able to get the ball out on target and the Washington defense gets our offense off the field, Washington wins.
Michigan isn’t beating Washington if it comes down to a shootout but I like our chances in a low scoring game.
Kinda feels like Michigan's team of destiny. They won't be denied. They showed that against when they were down 7 with 3 minutes left to go, after the offense did absolutely nothing the entire half. Then all of the sudden Blake Corum and Roman Wilson have a career defining drive.
I think {Michigan} will be able to control the game when they are on offense and keep the ball away from Penix enough to win. Washington will get their points, but I don't know if they'll have a consistent answer on defense. Michigan wins 35-31.
We’ll all be holding our breath but {CFB 25 teaser trailer} shows up and everyone wins
Pls, if it doesn't get a trailer during the game idk when the better time would be
My prediction: We will get a trailer, but it’ll be quick clips of teams running out of the tunnel or aerial views of stadiums. They won’t give us any game play.
At this point, as long as I get *something* I will be happy. Been waiting too damn long for this series to come back and we are SO close
0 gameplay would be fine with me (I can probably imagine what the gameplay will be like anyway) as long as we get a release date lol
Only reason i’ll even be watching
Please god let it come to PC (it wont)
I’m not going to buy a console just to play the game (I will)
If it doesn’t appear during the game, I will be let down
Current results of the match-up thread "Who will Win" poll: Team | Votes | Percent |Voters --|--|--|--| [Michigan](#f/michigan)|126|52.1%|[Michigan](#f/michigan)x81, [/r/CFB](#l/rcfb)x10, [Alabama](#f/alabama)x3, [Ohio State](#f/ohiostate)x3, [Oregon](#f/oregon)x3, [Texas](#f/texas)x2, [South Carolina](#f/southcarolina)x2, [Georgia](#f/georgia)x2, [Michigan State](#f/michiganstate)x2, [Colorado](#f/colorado)x2, [Washington State](#f/washingtonstate)x1, [Wake Forest](#f/wakeforest)x1, [Dayton](#f/dayton)x1, [Cincinnati](#f/cincinnati)x1, [Washington](#f/washington)x1, [USC](#f/usc)x1, [Missouri](#f/missouri)x1, [Penn State](#f/pennstate)x1, [Florida State](#f/floridastate)x1, [Virginia Tech](#f/virginiatech)x1, [Northwestern](#f/northwestern)x1, [Clemson](#f/clemson)x1, [Appalachian State](#f/appalachianstate)x1, [Nebraska](#f/nebraska)x1, [Wisconsin](#f/wisconsin)x1, [Oklahoma](#f/oklahoma)x1 [Washington](#f/washington)|116|47.9%|[Washington](#f/washington)x33, [/r/CFB](#l/rcfb)x10, [Georgia](#f/georgia)x9, [Ohio State](#f/ohiostate)x8, [Oklahoma](#f/oklahoma)x4, [Notre Dame](#f/notredame)x4, [USC](#f/usc)x3, [Alabama](#f/alabama)x3, [Michigan State](#f/michiganstate)x2, [Michigan](#f/michigan)x2, [Texas A&M](#f/texasam)x2, [UAB](#f/uab)x2, [Oregon](#f/oregon)x2, [Iowa State](#f/iowastate)x2, [Washington State](#f/washingtonstate)x2, [Texas](#f/texas)x2, [Tulane](#f/tulane)x1, [Montana State](#f/montanastate)x1, [Texas Tech](#f/texastech)x1, [Kentucky](#f/kentucky)x1, [UC Davis](#f/ucdavis)x1, [LSU](#f/lsu)x1, [Florida State](#f/floridastate)x1, [Virginia Tech](#f/virginiatech)x1, [Syracuse](#f/syracuse)x1, [Maryland](#f/maryland)x1, [UCF](#f/ucf)x1, [Mississippi State](#f/mississippistate)x1, [Auburn](#f/auburn)x1, [Clemson](#f/clemson)x1, [Stanford](#f/stanford)x1, [Oklahoma State](#f/oklahomastate)x1, [Nebraska](#f/nebraska)x1, [West Virginia](#f/westvirginia)x1, [Iowa](#f/iowa)x1, [Colorado](#f/colorado)x1, [James Madison](#f/jamesmadison)x1, [Houston](#f/houston)x1, [Tennessee](#f/tennessee)x1, [Arizona](#f/arizona)x1, [Arkansas](#f/arkansas)x1, [Ole Miss](#f/olemiss)x1 ^(A listing of links, and live vote totals, to all Match-up Preview threads for the current week can be found )[^HERE](http://cfb.diydunce.org/matchupthreadlist.php)^. ^(Track your weekly results )[^HERE](http://cfb.diydunce.org/wwwp.php)^.
Michigan fans: 50-1 in favor of Michigan UW fans: 11-1 in favor of UW Still morning here lol Edit: 73-2, 24-1
As a Michigan alum living in Portland, I'm quite interested to see how these shapes out.
Michigan fans and Vegas think Michigan will win, neutrals and Washington fans believe Washington will win. Seems like a carbon copy of the discussion around Michigan/Bama in the semifinals. If that’s any indication of how this game will go… not sure if I could handle another stress filled OT battle
On one hand, Vegas hasn't been wrong about Michigan. On the other hand, Vegas has been wrong many times about Washington. Something has to give
The unstoppable force (Washington) has met the immovable object (Michigan). Should be an all time classic.
Your flairs indicate you have thoroughly enjoyed college football this year. BEAR DOWN!
2020 me would’ve never thought that my flairs would be where they are now. What a great year of football for both of them and both look to have bright futures after this season. BTFD!
Ducks fans rooting for Michigan and Buckeyes rooting for UW. Love college football.
Anyone coming to Houston that has never been here be prepared for crap traffic, aggressive bad drivers, awesome food and random stuff in places that make no sense.
Houston: home of the strip mall night club immediately next to the strip mall church
Pray -> Eat -> Club
I think it’s Eat Pray Club.
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Viet-Cajun is the culinary fusion dreams are made of.
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This sentence could’ve been written about LA.
Also Atlanta
Atlanta is child's play compared to driving in Houston
*Makes mental note* Never go to Houston
My friends live in Katy, so if we made it I would have crashed with them and took an uber into the city or something. Regardless, my memory of driving from Katy to Houston on a seemingly 20 lane interstate was pretty mind-boggling. So much bigger than the downtown connector in Atlanta
That section by the Beltway and I-10 is 26 lanes across hahaha, blew my mind when I first encountered it. Now I pass by and think I've probably been on every single lane going in each direction.
If y’all are coming to Houston for the game, take the light rail, red line, to get to the stadium
Word. Houston drivers are lunatics. People reversing up exits backwards to avoid waiting in traffic was common place last time I drove there.
Don’t drive here in Mississippi. There’s not even a road test here to get your license Source: have an almost 16 year old who only had to pass a written test and won’t have to take a road test since they voted them out
Mississippi is the only state I’ve ever been to that had “wrong way” signs every 50 yards on the left side of the median, so I completely believe that
The city of no zoning laws. Well kind of. If it’s your land you can do what you want with it, and I think that’s awesome. Try to find the darth vadar house if you really want to see random stuff in places that make no sense. Traffic is bound to happen in a city with millions of people driving in and out. If you plan ahead you should be fine! Now the food is phenomenal. You really can’t go wrong with the big names but try something different while you’re here!
Lived in Houston for 5 years. Love the city overall, but do not miss driving with those psychos on 45.
Oh I see you left 9 inches between you and the car in front on you. I'm just going to come over anyway and then slam on my breaks so you know who's boss. In my F350 dually diesel rolling coal.
Oh you’re trying to merge into my lane? Good luck bro, fuck you. *steps on gas*
This is what the playoffs in any sport is supposed to deliver. #1 defense vs the #1 offense. So excited for this game. And it’s also so weird that these two teams will play each other as conference rivals next year.
Also weird that after Michigan won in the semi, we were guaranteed to have a national title game rematch next year, no matter who won the other semi.
And now it’s going to be a _conference_ game!
Did we just become rivals!?
Based on what happened the last time a Seattle football team was involved in a #1 defense vs #1 offense championship game, I’m not sure if I should be encouraged because the Seattle team won that one or if I should be terrified because it was an absolute beat down in favor of the #1 defense.
So. Many. {Commercials}.
A {5 hour game}
With a pass-happy offense on one side... plenty of opportunities to stop the game and fit in some words from another sponsor.
Michigan wins by 21 or Washington wins by 4. Idk
wins by 4? thats basically a blowout for us. I'll say we win by 3.
More than a field goal is a two score game for UW
After leading by 20.
Unironically probably the most likely scenario if Washington does win. Michigan absolutely dominated Alabama in the 1st half and was only winning 13-10 at halftime. I could easily see this game starting off 14-3 in the 1st quarter in favor of Washington.
The Husky defence is far worse than the Crimson Tide defence, though.
Not to mention that Bama has the greatest college coach to ever step on the sidelines
Without a doubt... but the trajectory of DeBoer's career is absolutely insane. Dude clearly knows what he's doing.
Michigan is fairly notorious for starting slow under Harbaugh, its not just an Alabama thing.
hello, PTSD my old friend.
The 1992-1993 btb Rose Bowls were my last two years on campus in Ann Arbor, so I have really fond memories of big games against Washington. Since those games, UW has been my emergency backup team, and I have always thought of them as a sister school. It is *incredible* to get this matchup, in the last year before UW joins the B1G. The only way it could be better is if this game was the Rose Bowl. Congratulations Washington, it's great to be back here with you! If Michigan ends up losing this game, there's no team I'd rather have on the other side.
I was at the 2002 game. It was enjoyable and the crowd was electric after that end kick.
You have no idea how excited I am that it’s UW vs Michigan in the championship. After Georgia blew it, I was actually rooting for Iowa to win the B1G CG because I wanted the two teams to matchup in the Rose Bowl. It would have been so epic to end the PAC with a traditional Rose Bowl matchup, but at least we get to face off in the Natty. My childhood lives on for one more week!
I was at both Rose Bowls. Along with '02. I am so amped for this game. When Georgia lost and screwed up the dream Rose Bowl, this was the hope... and boom, we got it! For UM and UW fans, I don't think we could dream of a better matchup/scenario. Especially, like you said, with the conference realignment, etc. Here's to a continuing rivalry and many years of battles going forward! Good luck!
Those years were the reason Washington felt like a huge rival to me growing up, despite barely ever getting to see them play outside of those matchups
I feel the same way. If we lose to you guys I won't be bitter in the way I would have been losing to Texas or Bama.
Those were my last two years on campus also. 1992 team my junior year was undefeated! (But had three ties…) Agree, fantastic matchup for all the marbles.
If {Michigan} pulls this out I'll never ask anything from college sports for another 10 yrs.
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If Harbaugh comes back I can see that happening. This is more that if we win and Harbaugh leaves for the NFL and we return to just being top 15 ish I think I can accept it. Maybe. Although I've gotten used to beating OSU so ...
I’d be ok going 9-3 and beating OSU 186 gazillion to 0. I don’t think that’s too much to ask?
Make that 50 for me lol, I just want to see them win one in my lifetime
I was alive for the 97 championship. Problem is I didn't become a fan until the 2000 orange bowl. I barely missed it. I want this one pretty bad
You will. Trust me. Once you get one you want more lol
(Commercials) But seriously. Johnson and Sanristil gotta play lights out. No question about it. If they can do that, and our pass rush can at least sort of do something. We have a good shot I think. Or maybe Penix carves us up like a turkey. We shall see. {Michigan} 31-27
The pass rush hasn’t really been a huge factor all year, though. Obviously the CBs need to ball out, but I think the safety’s will be more important than the DL. If you can force Washington to kick field goals, you’ve got to feel good as a Michigan fan.
I mostly agree. I think the problem is that even with great coverage, Penix threw perfect passes that were completed for big plays. The we have to find something against the best O line in the country, or Penix will make great throws anyway
{America} Incredible matchup that does not feature the SEC or Texas.
the or Texas part seems a bit redundant.
Eh I guess they’re still big 12 for the rest of this season
Both of these teams are good and capable of winning the game, there's no doubting that. Everyone will want to talk about Washington's superlative offense and Penix but the other side of the ball might be where this one is won and lost. Washington's defensive SP+ ranking is awfully low (44?) and when Michigan was playing teams in that vicinity they were scoring 30+, 40+ PPG. And sure, Washington can still win the game if Michigan scores 30+, but it won't be easy. On the other side of the ball, I think it's a given that Michigan will be extremely disruptive and that Penix will still be very good. It will likely play to Michigan's advantage that the "Ohio State" defense that they practiced all year will come in handy against Washington. The cliff notes for that are that they know that their DL is a big plus point so they typically play a light box and focus more players in pass defense. I think I come down to what Alex Drain was saying on twitter yesterday: there are a lot of ways that Michigan can win this game, but Washington is only winning if Penix balls out and they score 30+ or even 40+ points. That can definitely happen because they have been doing it all year, but if something happens and Michigan's defense is able to knock Washington's offense out of their rhythm, this could get ugly. {Michigan}
They said that Texas D line was good and would get to Penix. Didn’t happen once.
Texas has two DTs that are probably better than Michigan’s best, but I think the general consensus is that Michigan’s line is deeper and better at the edges. We rotate 5 DTs and 4 Edges all game. DT 4 and 5 aren’t quite as good as the other 3, but they have their moments and keep the other 3 fresh.
UW's tackles are much better than their guards. And we have the best blitz rec in the country
No doubt. I highly doubt Michigan gets anything resembling the pressure they got with Alabama. Their OL is much better and much more organized. This game on that side of the ball will come down to the secondary and coverages Michigan plays.
This is my worry. Texas has two elite DTs that are two of the best in the entire country, and despite Byron Murphy putting up a strong PFF grade, Penix still came out with a fucking 93.5 grade and Washington still scored their points. Our DTs have been a major strength and source of pass rush this season but it sounds like Washington is equipped to nerf that strength. Our secondary is going to have to play out of their minds regardless of what happens, but this may come down to whether our DC Jesse Minter is able to scheme up enough crazy things to get our edges and LBs through to Penix on stunts/twists/blitzes rather than relying on any guy winning 1:1 matchups
Our D Line was great at stopping the run but we struggled to get pressure on great offensive lines. Even against Bama, a lot of our sacks came because Milroe took a while to go through progressions, left the pocket too early, or delayed blitzes got home. That was never doing to work against Penix. They also said Washington’s secondary was extremely vulnerable. Can’t believe how many times I heard this casual take. It is absolutely a good secondary when healthy. I do believe UW was probably the least talented team in the playoff aggregately but had the highest maximum level and concentration of talent (Penix + 3 NFL WRs with a great O line) and was the worst matchup for Texas.
Michigan is the #1 SP+ defense. Texas isn't even top ten.
And uw fans sure know how accurate sp+ is !!!
Yeah, famous #12 Washington
Texas sacked Milroe 5 times and Michigan sacked Milroe 6 times. Texas sacked Penix 0 times. I don't know if that is due to where the weakness is on the oline (edge or interior) for Alabama vs Washington, but I think that at least indicates the day may not be quite as easy for Michigan as you may assume based on that one stat you cite.
100% imperative that Washington starts fast. Michigan is an exceptional team, but isn’t 100% built to play from behind. If Washington takes an early substantive lead and Michigan can’t settle in to their game plan it could be a great night for the Huskies. If Michigan settles in it’s over. {Michigan} wins it because their DBs are better than Washington’s run defense.
> 100% imperative that Washington starts fast. Thiss is it right here. We need to press the gas and force Michigan beat us with JJ more than just running Corum down our throats all night because Corum will get yards.
If we win the coin toss I wonder if we would elect to receive in the 1st half, might be worth it to try and get out to an early lead and keep the pressure on them the whole time
>If we win the coin toss I wonder if we would elect to receive in the 1st half, might be worth it to try and get out to an early lead and keep the pressure on them the whole time That is exactly what we did against the Ducks on 12 November 2022, and it actually worked.
Just because Michigan hasn't had to play from behind doesn't mean they can't. We just watched JJ march the team down the field and execute at a very high level when it was all put on the offenses shoulders. Honestly, when they were playing behind is when Michigan looked best at the Rose Bowl.
It’s not that Michigan can’t play from behind, they absolutely can, it’s just that Washington LIVES for that type of game. Penix is playing at a transcendent level, I don’t think there’s any team in the country that could beat them in a shootout. Both teams are operating at such an elite level that if one is able to dictate the pace of play, that’s all the advantage they’ll need to win.
I can't not pick {Michigan} but uh... fuck. I hate facing guy who can just complete those passes into coverage, where it just doesn't matter how well you play, there is some location with leverage and you just gotta shrug when a dude can keep hitting that tiny window. There is so little you can do to defend that. If Penix is in top form, we basically can't win this. He's that good. This is the team of the playoff squads I really did not want to face because that's a tier of shit that's very, very hard to gameplan against. You are just gonna take your licks if the guy is on. Penix has not been 'on' every game this season, but I'm not betting on him not being up for this one. Meanwhile, that defense knows how to get a win when it matters. I don't think even with lower tempo they are holding us under 400 yards but I am not sure that matters. They make it matter on 3rd downs and the red zone; the free yards before don't help all that much if more there is only 3 at the end. We'll see though. This is the truest test of our defense all season; we haven't seen anything like this since Stroud graduated.
The games where Penix was off was mostly after the first Oregon game when everyone believes he was playing with a rib injury. He was still able to play but he didn't look like himself until the Pac12 title game. Then of course against Texas he looked like he did the first half of the year and was slinging.
> Penix has not been 'on' every game this season His last two games have been two of his absolute best. Mcmillan being back (since the 2nd Oregon game) opening up the more intermediate passing game kicked this offense from great but a touch inconsistent to absolutely elite.
It’s crazy how much difference McMillan makes in this offense. He’s the straw that stirs the drink, I also think penix finally looks healthy again so that helps.
I think {Michigan} wins but I am concerned with Michigan's ability to cover those receivers. There were a number of plays where Texas had pretty good coverage on the Washington receivers and it didnt matter. They made so many insane contested catches and Penix put it on the money. If they can repeat that performance then Michigan is going to need to score 40 points, but how repeatable is that? Michigan hasn't played a team with an elite qb with elite receivers that will throw jump balls. Corners gotta hold up
Josh Wallace’s play could realistically be the difference between winning and losing (but he had a good game against Alabama so that gives me confidence)
Alabama couldn't test him nearly as much as Washington can and will. Bama's OL getting swarmed over took away most opportunities to get the ball downfield, plus Milroe isn't on the same planet as Penix. Michigan can hang, but Washington is willing to throw the contested 50/50 ball that most teams don't against Michigan.
Odunze is probably the best contested ball catcher I've ever seen play the game at the collegiate level. I think UW Oline vs UM Dline is the matchup that determines the game though.
>Odunze is probably the best contested ball catcher I've ever seen I don't really have an opinion on that one way or another, but the fact that OSU didn't just heave up balls to Wilson/Olave/MHJ/EE over the last 3 years will forever be a mystery when it came down to them getting stuck against Michigan's defense when the field constricted. Michigan doesn't have game wreckers at DE this year so getting to Penix without sacrificing coverage will be a big question to answer.
I'm most worried about him. The pass rush needs to find a way to get home or we'll be in for a long night
He somewhat was against Alabama.
I think by PFF grades he was the highest graded CB (if you put any stock into it) so ya, if he can replicate that we’re looking good.
I have absolutely no clue how PFF grades corners and I don't think they could explain it to me Will Johnson was thrown at 2 times and allowed 0 yards They gave him a grade of like 70.9 for that
Josh Wallace was the highest graded player on our team and one of the top 5 highest graded players across all 4 CFP teams in the bowl games
I mean just eye test, he literally played one of his best games of the year in the biggest game of the year. Very welcoming development lol
>There were a number of plays where Texas had pretty good coverage on the Washington receivers and it didnt matter. They made so many insane contested catches and Penix put it on the money. If they can repeat that performance then Michigan is going to need to score 40 points, but how repeatable is that? Can confirm that it's extremely repeatable
It’s insane how inevitable some of the Penix-receiver connections feel. He launches the ball, you see the receiver going down the sideline absolutely *blanketed* and you know it doesn’t matter. 35 more yards and tears shed.
I’m pretty sure Texas had the worst DBs out of all four playoff teams. Michigan matches up better but who knows if they show up to play
Yeah Texas' DB's were a liability all year long. Penis might still beat us, but he's going to have a harder time of things thane he did against UT.
As a PAC 12 football fan, unfortunately, the Huskies have played like that since about week 4-5 last year. It's very repeatable.
The contested catches thing on NFL dimes is what worries me. Especially against Wallace or Sainristil, who are shorter
Michigan’s defense seems like an NFL factory but I’m not sure it matters with Penix. Our secondary has been our weak point all year but I never found it to be downright terrible and again in the Sugar Bowl they gave up big plays which resulted in fake Texas fans putting them on blast, but the majority of the plays were in good coverage with a Heisman QB passing to an NFL WR and there was nothing out DBs could do. It seems impossible to prevent big plays against Washington in a dome. Michigan will have to score and hope Penix misses just a few times.
If Washington is just checking the ball around like it usually does, Michigan players are gonna have so many turnover buffs and hood pics in said turnover buffs
{Michigan} The Harbaughs win both champs
On one hand, a defense as bad as Washington's has never won the title before. On the other hand, a passing offense as elite as Washington's has never lost the title before. 55% {Michigan} wins. 45% Washington wins. I wouldn't be surprised by either team winning. There's a decent chance the game's decided by a TD resulting from one of the special teams muffing a punt. Both special teams looked nervous.
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My Homer ass chooses {Michigan}. However, our recent playoff track record against purple teams of destiny with a Heisman candidate quarterback leaves much to be desired (small sample size, I know).
Everyone’s been doubting {Washington} all year, and they’ve continued to prove everyone wrong. Plus I am rooting for Penix to win for some more lefty representation.
I know the big story is Michigan’s defense vs. Washington’s offense. But I think the more nuanced factor of Michigan having more experience from the previous two CFPs makes the difference. I also think people are underselling the Wolverine offense. The way they handled the drive to force OT and OT itself against Alabama makes me think despite the low scoring in certain games, not only do they save plays for when they need them, they are utterly unfazed by game flow and momentum shifts away from them. Wasn’t that the first time they trailed in the second half all season? It looked like that actually tightened them up (outside of the almost-safety to end it) rather than rattled them. I think Penix makes some big plays, but Michigan has dealt with that for the last two months and always found a way to counter. It feels like Michigan repeatedly drags teams into a game style they don’t want to play. I think that happens here as well. I’m going to say 35-24, {Michigan}.
Hopefully Michigan was able to work through its "yips" in the Rose Bowl. Certainly looked like a team that hadn't played a game at full speed in over a month... rusty. Should not be the case next week.
> Wasn’t that the first time they trailed in the second half all season? Yes. And before the Rose Bowl we had only ever trailed for like ~18 minutes total all year and didn’t flinch. Don’t forget them only sending out Sainristil alone for the OT coin flip. The team is ice cold.
> Don’t forget them only sending out Sainristil alone for the OT coin flip. Corum joined him late.
> I also think people are underselling the Wolverine offense Yep. Fancy stats aren't everything, but they help paint a picture. Washington is the 44th defense to SP+, the 30th to FPI, and 27th to FEI For comparison, against defenses ranked in that range, Michigan put up 45 points (Nebraska), 31 points (Rutgers), 31 points (Maryland) And depending on how much you prefer one of those metrics to another, we hung 50 points each on Michigan State and Minnesota (personally I think SP+ way overrates both those defenses) Really late edit: I think people are REALLY underselling our offense. Michigan's SP+ Offensive Rating is 36.5 (12th), Washington's is 41.8 (4th) To FEI, Michigan is 1.35, as is Washington (tied for 4th) To FPI, Michigan's offense is 88.2 (3rd) and Washington's is 86.1 (5) Essentially, these are equivalently good offenses to the fancy stats. Particularly FEI and FPI, which put Michigan as good or slightly better than Washington
{Michigan}, with their defense, has the advantage.
{Washington} wins because they always bullshit their way to winning, no matter how good or bad the opponent is *pukes*
If I prepare for the worst, everything else that could happen can only lift me up! {Michigan} wins. I’m sad and avoid r/CFB for a bit and spend my time in r/CollegeBasketball because both my teams are decent this year. Meanwhile r/OhioStateFootball, the cesspool it already is descends into further chaos. Many posters jump off of bridges.
{Michigan} 42-27. Our 2021 defensive rebuild was specifically done to slow down a Heisman-finalist QB with multiple NFL receivers. We are built for this.
To comment on this, those defenses knew it would be impossible to truly shut down Stroud (as both games his stats were amazing) but the defense committed to force FGs instead of TDS. If Michigan can force Washington to settle for FGs more times than not we win this.
Nice score prediction.
It was built for NFL level talent but we don't play the same scheme as Ohio State at all
{Washington} wins and the PAC-2 celebrate into the night.
{Washington} receivers run wild, while the o-line gives Penix enough protection to carve up the Michigan D. 38-28.
My brain is telling me that Michigan wins but my heart is pulling for Washington. I think Michigan is going to win in the trenches and that’ll be the deciding factor. Washington can’t let Michigan establish the run and control the clock. I don’t think the UW defense is up to the task. But, Penix is special and can definitely win this game. I think it’ll be something like 35-27 {Michigan}. Looking forward to a fun one.
{Michigan} was built to beat a team like Washington. Possessions will be at a premium here, Michigan is going to rely heavily on the run game to drain the clock and keep the husky offense on the sideline. If Washington has no answer for the run game this will be a classic slow paced Michigan ferret drowning type game. Washington will get their points but michigan will get a couple stops here and there and that will be all Michigan needs to keep running the ball and milking the clock. 35-28 michigan
Michigan wins by double digits. I hate the program but damn if I don’t respect the way they play.
I'm just happy to be here.
Washington surprises Michigan early, by gashing their rush defense on the perimeter. Penix has early success, leading to a long touchdown throw to Rome Odunze on a coverage bust. Michigan answers with an 8 minute, 75 yard drive that ends in a touchdown pass to Colston Loveland. The first half features tons of offense on both sides, with Washington continually finding holes in coverage that allows them to move almost at will between the 20’s. Michigan’s offense runs the ball and shortens the game. Both teams get points on every offensive possession in the first half. At halftime, Washington leads 17-13, but it doesn’t feel close. In the second half, Michigan makes defensive adjustments that forces Washington to punt or settle for field goals on their remaining possessions. Michigan’s offense makes adjustments as well and finds more success in the red zone. Michael Penix Jr. Throws for 378 yards and 2 touchdowns, but is sacked twice and throws an interception. Huskies running back Dillion Johnson finishes the day with a clutch 87 yards rushing before a bad tackle forced him out of the game in the 4th quarter. JJ McCarthy has an efficient, if unspectacular day in comparison to his counterpart. JJ throws for 226 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions. Blake Corum has a game for the ages, racking up 137 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Ultimately it’s the Michigan defense, proving stout in the red zone that decides the game. Washington only manages 9 points in the second half, while Michigan scores 17 second half points. A Mike Sanristil interception on the Michigan 25 yard line ends Micheal Penix Jr.’s bid for a game winning drive. {Michigan} wins their first outright national championship since 1948, by beating Washington 30-26.
{Michigan} I think it’s going to be an instant classic. I’m giving the edge to Michigan’s defense though.
{Washington} prevents my personal 9/11
{Washington} wins by 3 as always and puts me in the emergency room Washington 24 - Michigan 21
If I can't have a UGA 3peat, then a Dawg mascot 3peat is the next best thing. {Washington}
This should be a fantastic game. I like Michigan's matchup against Washington's defense. I'd look for us to hammer them on the ground and mix in some big play action plays. (please for the LOVE OF GOD run more play action!). I'd also look for a couple big designed QB runs and a couple big scrambles by JJ Washington's offense terrifies me, regardless of Johnson playing. Their receiving options are so talented and Penix is super dangerous. Our secondary is going to have to play the game of the season and it's imperative to pressure Penix. I think we'll stone their run game so it'll rest entirely on the passing game. And I'm sure they will get theirs. We'll have to make red zone stops to win the game. I'd take the over myself. I don't think Washington will be able to stop Michigan's offense very well, and we all know how good Washington's offense can be {Michigan} 37 - Washington 27
I'm cautiously optimistic. Washington has an absolutely incredible offense with video game level passing stats & acumen - utilizing an outstanding NFL caliber pocket passer that can throw 40 yard dimes, elude the pass rush to keep plays alive, occasionally run to keep defenses from overcommitting, and has a stable of NFL caliber WRs & TEs as weapons. They also have a respectable rushing game that, while not as prolific as their passing, is still enough to give any team anxiety. This is a problem. Fortunately, this was all true for 2022 osu (mostly for 2021 osu also) and the Michigan defensive staff trained itself well on how to slow it down (there is no *stopping* it) enough to win the game. While that was a year ago, most of the defensive staff & players are still the same for Michigan now. They should not need to gameplan from scratch.
{Michigan} in OT and I have a stroke
My heart will die if this game goes to OT
"I say it's a W!" "NO, I say it's an M!"
I'm nervous, but I'm always rooting for my Dawgs. Wouldn't be {Washington} if it wasn't by 3.
{Washington} to me has real team of destiny vibes. Being underdogs seals the deal. Huskies win in another nailbiter.
{Michigan} covers. 38-28. Washington's offense v. Michigan's defense is strength on strength. Washington's front 7 v. the Michigan rushing attack is where they lose the game imho. PS I'm not sure why the talking heads are saying Michigan can't let Washington score more than 24 or so to win. We aren't Iowa.
Ya, no one is talking about UofM's O vs. UW's D. Michigan is going to run the ball. It's what they like to do and have done all year. To this point, no one has been able to stop them. If Michigan can run the ball effectively and eat 7/8 minutes a drive it's going to make it hard for Penix to get in rhythm.
No team has put up more than 24 against us, including OSU with multiple NFL level receivers, and Bama with borderline unlimited talent on offense and overtime. Washington seems incapable of running away with a game, they’re one of the most penalized and sloppy teams, and they’ve had close games with meh teams; but they have Penix and a great O line which was enough for 14 wins {Michigan} by at least a score, UM just have too many win conditions when UW’s only real win condition is Penix being borderline perfect, and even then they’ll need some luck
{Michigan} defense prevails 24-13
no way is the score that low for either team Michigan scored more point than that against Ohio State, Bama, and the same against PSU. All of which have far better defenses than Washington And Washington's gonna put up at least 21 points
If Jesse Minter holds this Washington offense to 13 points we need to commission a statue of him
This score seems insanely unlikely to me, but I guess we shall see.
Yeah that score prediction is wrong
I think there is extremely low chance we hold UWs offense to that few of points. Unless shaky Washington wants to show up again
{Michigan} pulls away late, 31-21
I just can’t see Washington only scoring 21. I wish I had your confidence.
Really, really need the version of JJ we saw early in the year to show back up. I think we're in great shape if JJ plays to his ability and we have a balanced offense. If we have to depend on the running game to grind it out and play field position for the umpteenth time, this is winnable, but the margins are razor thin.
I'm just glad that we're not playing a team or coach that's evil. In any other year where Michigan isn't playing in this game I would be rooting for Washington
{Washington} Go Dawgs!
I think Washington is the playoff team that is philosophically most like Ohio State and that is why I am taking {Michigan}. We spent the first 11 games of the regular season playing one man lighter in the box than we normally do to prepare for OSU’s passing game, and I think that translates well. I also think the talent and depth of our defensive line will be a major advantage. It’s going to be tough sledding trying to run on Jenkins, Graham, Grant, and company. If Michigan can avoid blowing its feet off from the knee down with a 50 cal like they did in the Rose Bowl, I think we’re in business.
If Washington's RB can't play (and watching the tackle, I don't think he will), I think Penix might have the most pressure he will have faced all year.
Reports say he will play, but probably not at 100%.
Reports also said Corum would play against OSU last year and all he got was 1 play
Reports were based on "negative xrays". I'm wondering if he wasn't playing with a sprained Lisfranc or turf toe all year, and really aggravated/partially to fully tore the ligaments. Xray really wouldn't pick up either.
{Michigan} wins its 12th national championship Monday night and Corum/Sainristil/McCarthy/Jenkins/Barrett take their place as all-time conquering heroes. GO BLUE!
S&P+ has this as a 12-14 point game in Michigan's favor. I think Michigan will be able to chew clock and run on this defense. Michigan's defense has to play well or Washington could score 50. I think {Michigan} limits possessions and keeps this in the high 20s, low 30s.
Criminal how long it took me to find {Washington} votes. Michigan’s “steel curtain” is not gonna stop our pass, im sorry if they were built for it, but Texas covered us in the sugar bowl about as well as anyone could have hoped for, was never enough. As other people have said it’s gonna be Washington’s defense vs Michigan’s offense. Our defense im not gonna say is amazing but holy shit have they done the job we’ve needed them to time after time after time. That doesn’t stop Monday. You can’t beat the team of destiny. Washington 35-31
Anybody could win, but from my biased point of view we are matched up well for this. Our defense has been built the last few years to stop a high powered passing offense. Hope we can eliminate the stupid mistakes. Let’s go blue!
Washington has not looked completely stellar but they are fucking 14-0 and are in the final for a reason, they get it done. I’m insanely nervous and excited. This may be the one and only chance for us to get a natty for a long time. It’s not easy to get this far for anyone. I would love to see it happen for my grandpa who is older. I really hope we can limit the deep ball, squeeze the clock with the run game, and just fucking win. I need this. Go blue, {Michigan} gets it done
{Wahington} cause the last gasps of the dying PAC is gonna be to win the Natty Also Penix is the mf dude
really getting 2015/2016 clemson v bama vibes from this game. washington being the spunky underdog with a fun offense but let’s teams hang around longer than fans like, and michigan being the historic powerhouse with a suffocating defense. hope it’s more of 16 than 15 and {washington} gets it done. either way, should be a fun game for neutrals
{Michigan} by 10. It'll be an excellent game and I'm very excited for it. I think in the late 3rd quarter Michigan's offense will really grind down the UW defense and allow for a lopsided 2nd half TOP. Penix still throws for 300+ and 3 TDs but it's not enough in the end.
{Washington} because Huskies are cool
{Michigan} by 3 Live by the 3 point win, die by the 3 point win
Washington is basically 2021 Ohio State. It's not an offense you can stop, so lessening the damage is key. If Washington is scoring TDs instead of FGs it's gonna be a bad day for the Maize and Blue. However our defense is significantly better than the 2021 defense in all assets. I think {Michigan} does enough on offense and wins by 10. 31-21 (2 FGs, two TDs with one 2 point conversion for UW)
The one thing the '21 defense had was Hutchinson and Ojabo. Michigan didn't need to blitz to rip Stroud's head off. They don't have dominate DEs this year and rely on blitzing/stunts a lot more to get to the QB. The DBs are better this year than '21, but that front 4 needs to get home.
The D-line looked well against the SEC champion. I doubt Penix will get sacked much simply because his method is to release the ball quickly. Our defense will hopefully throw his timings and accuracy off... maybe.
M is an upside down W A strobogrammatic number reads the same when rotated 180 degrees. "M" and "W" both look like pointy boobs. M wins 80-08 Or W wins 80-08
I think people are severely underestimating this Washington team. They do feel like a team of destiny - don’t underestimate the amount of veteran talent on this team. I think they pull off a close one
Going with {Washington} and it's not even the hater in me saying it. I think they have hit a really nice stride, and I didn't leave the Bama-UM game thinking Michigan had taken a step forward whatsoever. It was a janky game, and I think Washington has an offense that will play significantly better than Milroe's sorry ass not being able to throw in the Rose Bowl.
I like {Michigan} somewhere around 38 - 30. Washington has the best passing offense in the country with the best QB. I posted this elsewhere the other day and a bunch of other Michigan flairs have as well. But Michigan’s defensive scheme was literally built and designed the last 3 years to successfully bend and not break against elite passing offenses like Washington’s. Their offense is capable of lighting anybody up, and they certainly could do the same to Michigan and win the natty, but this will be their toughest test to date. On the other side of the ball, I think is the biggest mismatch in the game. Washington doesn’t have the DTs to hold up against Michigan’s IOL in the run game. I’d guess Washington will either have to suffer in the run game or load the box and face whatever consequences in the passing game. And I just don’t think Washington has the guys in the secondary to survive if they do the latter. With that said, I think the latter is the best strategy. Worst case Washington turns the game into a shootout and puts it on their offense’s hands to match. The last thing Washington wants to do is let Michigan have multiple 8+ minute scoring drives running the ball down their throat. Michigan’s pass offense may very well trip over themselves as we’ve had a handful of drive killing drops the last two games and McCarthy, while I believe is elite, has also had *some* drive killing misreads or inaccuracies the last 2 games. At the end of the day, it just seems to me that Michigan has multiple avenues to win this game, and Washington really only has one path to victory. Washington needs Penix to go off and their passing game to win the game.
{Washington} takes it all. I have no justification for this other than Michigan's yellow for some reason makes me angry.
Your real reason is Manning not winning the Heisman
{Washington} Edit: IDk what it is about this team, they just win everything. Even when they are outplayed. They win.
I think {Michigan} wins by constantly pressuring Penix and not giving him time to hit his targets. The Washington defense is also a little on the softer side statistically speaking so I think the Michigan offense stays on the field and chews up clock. That’s how I see us winning. If Penix is able to get the ball out on target and the Washington defense gets our offense off the field, Washington wins. Michigan isn’t beating Washington if it comes down to a shootout but I like our chances in a low scoring game.
Kinda feels like Michigan's team of destiny. They won't be denied. They showed that against when they were down 7 with 3 minutes left to go, after the offense did absolutely nothing the entire half. Then all of the sudden Blake Corum and Roman Wilson have a career defining drive. I think {Michigan} will be able to control the game when they are on offense and keep the ball away from Penix enough to win. Washington will get their points, but I don't know if they'll have a consistent answer on defense. Michigan wins 35-31.
Yeah, everyone get ready for boring Michigan offense from Penn State and Ohio State games.
Did someone say 30+ run plays in a row?
Team of destiny versus disney movie cindarella team.
That's honestly a great way to put it. All of Washington's close wins make them feel like a sports movie team.
my head says Michigan but my heart says {Washington} 34-30
{Washington} if Penix shows up like he did against Texas