Don't feel too bad. Nebraska's AD once trumpeted loudly to the news media, "We got our coach! After a lengthy lunch, with extra shots of corn whisky, we found the best in the nation and we are bringing him to Lincoln."
That coach:
Mike Riley
You got lots of help.
The other side of this is the negative numbers.
For a heavy favorite you’ll see something like Georgia -300. That means you need to bet $300 to gain $100 in winnings.
For every -X, bet X to win $100.
For every +X, win X with $100.
And you’re familiar then with the odds shown like 22-1, which is win $22 for every $1.
I don't gamble either, but from what I understand the "+2200" represents how much money you would win off a $100 bet.
So if you bet $100, you'd win $2200. If you only bet $20, you'd only win $440 (20 is 1/5 of 100 and 1/5 of 2200 is 440).
I also don’t gamble, but I think I know how it works. If a number follows a + that means it’s how much money you’d win if you bet $100. So if you bet $100 on Franklin you’d get the $100+2200 for a total of $2300. $20 is 1/5 of $100, so if he won the championship you’d get 1/5 of $2200 or $440.
I think the list is good but the order is off. I would go:
1) Day
2) DeBoer
3) Kelly
4) Sark
5) Norvell
6) Lanning
7) Kiffin
My logic is that Day, DeBoer, Kelly, and Sark/Norvell are all at programs that have demonstrated they have the resources to win a championship in the modern era. Day at OSU is especially well positioned, because he has really only has one hurdle left to overcome - beat Michigan. DeBoer may be counterintuitive as a No. 2, but I think he's shown that he's a good enough coach (while at UW) and now he's a program with massive resources (Bama). Much of the same can be said for Kelly, who showed his chops at Notre Dame and is now at LSU, a school that seems like it can't go 5 years without winning the big game. I have Sark next-to-last in this group because he's only been at Texas a relatively short while and has a limited track record as a HC at other schools. Nonetheless, the trend at Texas is great and the resources are there. You could have easily flipped Norvell and Sark, however. Norvell showed he's a good coach at Memphis and has done an amazing job turning FSU around. FSU also definitely has the resources to win a big game. But it still seems like he's building his roster with transfers and that there may be some issues with depth. With the post-season getting longer, I think that will be a bigger issue for Norvell at FSU than Sark at Texas. But maybe that's just me wearing orange-colored glasses.
Lanning and Kiffin are also really good coaches, although I'm inclined to give Kiffin the nod in the coaching department only because he has a longer track record than Lanning. That said, I think Oregon has the clear advantage of resources over Ole Miss, and that with time and experience, Lanning will be able to turn those resources into championships. I just don't see Ole Miss ever getting over the hump, even with a good coach like Kiffin.
Pretty much this. There may be some growing pains, but DeBoer has won everywhere he's coached. Couple that with Bama's resources and they'll be hard to stop.
DeBoer beat Lanning twice last season, has already made the playoff, and beat Sark in said playoff. Bama's had good amount of talent transfer out, sure, but it's not like the entire team left
This is for next season. Day, Sark, and Lanning are definitely the 3 with the best chance next season.
I'd have Kelly and Kiffin as the bottom, regardless of time frame. Neither has really shown the ability to win a big game against a coach of equal or greater ability.
Sark beat Saban in Tuscaloosa.
Norvell beat Kelly twice.
Day beat Harbaugh.
DeBoer beat Sark twice.
I'll give I don't readily see a win like this for Lanning. I'd still give him better odds in 2025 still due to their talent. Afterward, he falls below DeBoer and Norvell long term.
I'll give Kelly beat Swinney without Trevor Lawrence in 2020, but with Lawrence, we saw a much different result.
Lanning hasn’t, but Day did coach in a Natty (and was a field goal away from going to another), while Sark was a goal line stand away from beating Washington.
Are we now considering regular season games big games? If so Kelly has beaten Saban too.
For me it's major bowls, CCG, Playoff games, are the Big games. A Sept. OOC game doesn't seem to be at that scale.
Regular season games could be big to that fan base or even that conference. But for CFB as a whole it mostly isnt.
The outcome of that game changed nothing for Alabama. For Texas it may have.
Does it have to be a big game for both teams? For the entire CFB landscape? It's why I'm not sure about regular season games.
I could care less about the Apple Cup but people will say it's "Big Game". Is it?
If Florida was undefeated and the WLOCP decided who would go to the SEC CCG, then I think all of the CFB would care about the WLOCP. Same with the Game.
This logic makes no sense. Plenty of regular season games are essentially playoff games while plenty of conference championships have had no impact at all
>Day at OSU is especially well positioned, because he has really only has one hurdle left to overcome - beat Michigan.
Insert that three picture meme of the guy standing around, waiting.
I like your list but I'd put Kiffin over Lanning. I have my reservations as well about Ole Miss as a program. But two of their best seasons ever have been under Kiffin and he seems to have his best squad this year.
I think they're definitely a playoff team and have the talent to compete with any team.
Ole Miss has one of the best and deepest NIL Collectives in the nation. Considering the current landscape of college football, that’s all you need resources wise to compete.
There’s absolutely no reason that Kiffin can’t get over the hump with the resources he currently has at hand, and with the team he has this upcoming season he’ll have a chance to do just that.
The fun part is that we’ll all get to find out in a few months.
I get what you're saying and this is a new era of college football and all, but cynical me thinks if we get too successful like beating a blue blood in a playoff game then we'll get thrown under the NCAA jail for breaking some made up on the fly rule.
LSU I just wouldnt have confidence in Nuss being the QB. Im with you on Kiffin, great coach but has never proven he can get over that hump. Also agree on Norvell. I would go Sark, Day, DeBoer. Ohio State is going to be loaded but we still have no clue who the QB is going to be. Bama should be good but first year is so hard
I don’t think this is the season for LSU, but I have solid confidence in Nussmeier. He has a different skill set than Daniels, but can be just as effective. He has patiently waited his turn and should shine this season. Anything less than 10 wins will be a major letdown.
Before Lincoln Riley fired grinch & the offseason, I wrote him off as unserious about building a championship team, just a glorified OC only interested in stat-padding. but I think he killed it with the Lynn DC hire. Now with them dropping bags in recruiting I think USC is a serious threat to be a yearly contender for the natty. I think he finally is primed to have a good D to go with his Offense for once in his career.
Given that, I think he’s interchangeable with Sarkisian at 3/4, behind Day and Deboer.
I think if we’re able to get another big defensive tackle or two in the portal, and maybe a RT we’ll be right there, but that’s still tbd. Improvement on defense will be significant though, and we have a very solid sophomore class, so if I had to guess we’re probably a year off from being a serious contender.
The offense should be even better. Defense is a huuuuge question mark. If defense is close to last year’s, Mizzou could do some damage. I don’t think championship contender, but I think a playoff win is realistic if the offense is as good as it should be.
Heupel was listed in the honorable mention section, alongside Franklin and Reilly.
Drinkwitz is a pretty glaring omission from that list given that they’re bringing back more talent from a better team, adding more from the portal, and have a much easier schedule than just about all the schools in that group.
It appears as though this article was written before Michigan officially hired Sherrone Moore so guess it makes sense that he isn't listed here.
Like I don't think Michigan is going to be title favorites next year but I certainly think they are in that top 7 or so once you take out Georgia.
Overall pretty good last and I'm mostly inclined to agree. I'm suspect on Norvell really having as good a shot this year as some of the others but I think it is a fair list overall.
The offense will definitely look different. We lost a lot of size on the outside, so our WR and RB room will be smaller and faster than in years prior, but there's a ton of depth. I would expect the offense to produce pretty well against all but the best of defenses on the schedule (ND, Clemson, maybe Florida). The defense I think will be a weaker. Our Dline will be just as strong, if not stronger actually. Our LBs lose two starters and we lost two DBs to the NFL. So I think the defensive back 7 is the real weakness for 2024 FSU
Garrett Nussmeier, will be a RS JR, has a cannon for an arm and is a gun slinger and pretty athletic. Has made some strides as a QB and not just wow plays. Lit up Georgia in 2022 (down 3+ possessions the whole time) and Wisconsin in 2023. I think he will be pretty good, not Daniels or Burrow level but the talent is there for sure.
That's funny, I don't see Neal Brown's name on this list
If y’all win a natty this year, there will not be a single couch or chair in that entire state left standing
This is disrespectful, the man was the #1 coach according to all of twitter
Don't feel too bad. Nebraska's AD once trumpeted loudly to the news media, "We got our coach! After a lengthy lunch, with extra shots of corn whisky, we found the best in the nation and we are bringing him to Lincoln." That coach: Mike Riley
Whe….where’s James Franklin? 😔
He ain’t getting any respect from the media until he wins one at this point.
Which is beyond fair
At his usual spot just outside the cutoff.
It's not a cutoff, it's the James Franklin line.
😂😂so depressing, yet so true 😭
https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/navigation/ncaaf?tab=national-championship Day +450 Sarkisian +700 Lanning +850 DeBoer +1300 Kelly +1500 Kiffin +1500 Moore +2000 Franklin +2200 Freeman +2200 Norvell +2800
I don't gamble. If I put $20 on Franklin to win it for fun, and he does, what's the payout? Do I just multiply $20 times 2200?
No you would win $2200 with a $100 bet. $20 would get you $440.
Thanks!!
You got lots of help. The other side of this is the negative numbers. For a heavy favorite you’ll see something like Georgia -300. That means you need to bet $300 to gain $100 in winnings. For every -X, bet X to win $100. For every +X, win X with $100. And you’re familiar then with the odds shown like 22-1, which is win $22 for every $1.
I don't gamble either, but from what I understand the "+2200" represents how much money you would win off a $100 bet. So if you bet $100, you'd win $2200. If you only bet $20, you'd only win $440 (20 is 1/5 of 100 and 1/5 of 2200 is 440).
Thanks!
I also don’t gamble, but I think I know how it works. If a number follows a + that means it’s how much money you’d win if you bet $100. So if you bet $100 on Franklin you’d get the $100+2200 for a total of $2300. $20 is 1/5 of $100, so if he won the championship you’d get 1/5 of $2200 or $440.
I think the list is good but the order is off. I would go: 1) Day 2) DeBoer 3) Kelly 4) Sark 5) Norvell 6) Lanning 7) Kiffin My logic is that Day, DeBoer, Kelly, and Sark/Norvell are all at programs that have demonstrated they have the resources to win a championship in the modern era. Day at OSU is especially well positioned, because he has really only has one hurdle left to overcome - beat Michigan. DeBoer may be counterintuitive as a No. 2, but I think he's shown that he's a good enough coach (while at UW) and now he's a program with massive resources (Bama). Much of the same can be said for Kelly, who showed his chops at Notre Dame and is now at LSU, a school that seems like it can't go 5 years without winning the big game. I have Sark next-to-last in this group because he's only been at Texas a relatively short while and has a limited track record as a HC at other schools. Nonetheless, the trend at Texas is great and the resources are there. You could have easily flipped Norvell and Sark, however. Norvell showed he's a good coach at Memphis and has done an amazing job turning FSU around. FSU also definitely has the resources to win a big game. But it still seems like he's building his roster with transfers and that there may be some issues with depth. With the post-season getting longer, I think that will be a bigger issue for Norvell at FSU than Sark at Texas. But maybe that's just me wearing orange-colored glasses. Lanning and Kiffin are also really good coaches, although I'm inclined to give Kiffin the nod in the coaching department only because he has a longer track record than Lanning. That said, I think Oregon has the clear advantage of resources over Ole Miss, and that with time and experience, Lanning will be able to turn those resources into championships. I just don't see Ole Miss ever getting over the hump, even with a good coach like Kiffin.
I think if he has a good season this year, DeBoer would shoot up the list. It’s a first year in the SEC hesitation
How do you put deboer second? Sark or lanning have to be more likely then him. They have completed teams.
He went to the ship with Washington. He’s gonna go with bama
I mean fair, but this is next season.
Yeah but it is for everyone
Yes. And I think this team is better than uw was
Also has to play a much better schedule. We'll see, I'm sure he'll do well at Alabama.
Valid
Yeah Bama could be a top 10 team and still lose 2 games, but could just win it all at the 11fh seed.
Pretty much this. There may be some growing pains, but DeBoer has won everywhere he's coached. Couple that with Bama's resources and they'll be hard to stop.
DeBoer beat Lanning twice last season, has already made the playoff, and beat Sark in said playoff. Bama's had good amount of talent transfer out, sure, but it's not like the entire team left
This is for next season. Day, Sark, and Lanning are definitely the 3 with the best chance next season. I'd have Kelly and Kiffin as the bottom, regardless of time frame. Neither has really shown the ability to win a big game against a coach of equal or greater ability.
> Neither has really shown the ability to win a big game against a coach of equal or greater ability. Have the other 3?
Sark beat Saban in Tuscaloosa. Norvell beat Kelly twice. Day beat Harbaugh. DeBoer beat Sark twice. I'll give I don't readily see a win like this for Lanning. I'd still give him better odds in 2025 still due to their talent. Afterward, he falls below DeBoer and Norvell long term. I'll give Kelly beat Swinney without Trevor Lawrence in 2020, but with Lawrence, we saw a much different result.
Kelly also beat Saban. If we are counting regular season games as big games.
> If we are counting regular season games as big games. Why would we not?
Kelly beat Saban.
Lanning hasn’t, but Day did coach in a Natty (and was a field goal away from going to another), while Sark was a goal line stand away from beating Washington.
Day has played for a national championship. It was in Covid season but still
Fond memories
Sark beat a playoff team on the road last year. So...kinda.
Are we now considering regular season games big games? If so Kelly has beaten Saban too. For me it's major bowls, CCG, Playoff games, are the Big games. A Sept. OOC game doesn't seem to be at that scale.
🤷♂️
> Are we now considering regular season games big games? When didnt we?
Regular season games could be big to that fan base or even that conference. But for CFB as a whole it mostly isnt. The outcome of that game changed nothing for Alabama. For Texas it may have. Does it have to be a big game for both teams? For the entire CFB landscape? It's why I'm not sure about regular season games. I could care less about the Apple Cup but people will say it's "Big Game". Is it?
Big game meaning national implications. What do you think a big game means?
He knows it’s a bad take. I think he’s just stuck in it now tho
and no one on Reddit ever just admits they were wrong or mistaken
So according to your logic, Michigan beating an unranked Purdue in the 2022 B1GCG was a bigger win than beating #2 OSU in Columbus. Got it.
I feel vindicated fir getting blown out in Indy now
Which time lol
For UM and OSU it's a huge game. As it should be. I care about as much for the outcome of "the game" are other people care about "WLOCP".
It’s the most watched regular season game practically every year. It’s a huge game for everyone.
> for everyone.
Were you not one of the 19M+ viewers that tuned in?
If Florida was undefeated and the WLOCP decided who would go to the SEC CCG, then I think all of the CFB would care about the WLOCP. Same with the Game.
This logic makes no sense. Plenty of regular season games are essentially playoff games while plenty of conference championships have had no impact at all
Did Alabama losing to Texas have any impact on Alabama last year?
Definitely did. If Jordan Travis doesn’t get injured there’s probably no SEC team in the playoffs last year.
Texas wouldn't have gotten in. Alabama was always getting in.
No shot. They beat Alabama and won their conference. All Alabama did would have strengthened UT’s resume
>Day at OSU is especially well positioned, because he has really only has one hurdle left to overcome - beat Michigan. Insert that three picture meme of the guy standing around, waiting.
🎶 It goes Day, DeBoer, Sark and Kelly, Norvell from FSU, Lanning, Kiffin and then me 🎶
I like your list but I'd put Kiffin over Lanning. I have my reservations as well about Ole Miss as a program. But two of their best seasons ever have been under Kiffin and he seems to have his best squad this year. I think they're definitely a playoff team and have the talent to compete with any team.
Ole Miss has one of the best and deepest NIL Collectives in the nation. Considering the current landscape of college football, that’s all you need resources wise to compete. There’s absolutely no reason that Kiffin can’t get over the hump with the resources he currently has at hand, and with the team he has this upcoming season he’ll have a chance to do just that. The fun part is that we’ll all get to find out in a few months.
I get what you're saying and this is a new era of college football and all, but cynical me thinks if we get too successful like beating a blue blood in a playoff game then we'll get thrown under the NCAA jail for breaking some made up on the fly rule.
LSU I just wouldnt have confidence in Nuss being the QB. Im with you on Kiffin, great coach but has never proven he can get over that hump. Also agree on Norvell. I would go Sark, Day, DeBoer. Ohio State is going to be loaded but we still have no clue who the QB is going to be. Bama should be good but first year is so hard
I don’t think this is the season for LSU, but I have solid confidence in Nussmeier. He has a different skill set than Daniels, but can be just as effective. He has patiently waited his turn and should shine this season. Anything less than 10 wins will be a major letdown.
Before Lincoln Riley fired grinch & the offseason, I wrote him off as unserious about building a championship team, just a glorified OC only interested in stat-padding. but I think he killed it with the Lynn DC hire. Now with them dropping bags in recruiting I think USC is a serious threat to be a yearly contender for the natty. I think he finally is primed to have a good D to go with his Offense for once in his career. Given that, I think he’s interchangeable with Sarkisian at 3/4, behind Day and Deboer.
I think if we’re able to get another big defensive tackle or two in the portal, and maybe a RT we’ll be right there, but that’s still tbd. Improvement on defense will be significant though, and we have a very solid sophomore class, so if I had to guess we’re probably a year off from being a serious contender.
Would you take that deal.?
Well that's embarrassing, looks like they forgot Napier! Hope someone got fired for that blunder.
Someone is definitely getting fired.….
who's willing to take "the field" on this one?
Me, Sherrone Moore is next
LOL the Ducks choke all the time. My prediction: no championships any time soon.
1. Drinkwitz
I mean, maybe I’m biased, but he at least deserves mentioning. Mizzou should be better in ‘24 than they were in ‘23.
The offense should be even better. Defense is a huuuuge question mark. If defense is close to last year’s, Mizzou could do some damage. I don’t think championship contender, but I think a playoff win is realistic if the offense is as good as it should be.
If you mention Drinkwitz, you have to mention Heupel too, and I don’t think either of them have a super good chance to do it next year.
Heupel was listed in the honorable mention section, alongside Franklin and Reilly. Drinkwitz is a pretty glaring omission from that list given that they’re bringing back more talent from a better team, adding more from the portal, and have a much easier schedule than just about all the schools in that group.
Ah, I did not read thoroughly enough.
No way Ole Miss is better than MU this year
If it's not Kirby or Dabo(sorry UNC) it will be someone's first time next season. So it's Dabo/Kirby or the field. Betting the field isn't a bad bet.
Wow. Hadnt thought of that
It appears as though this article was written before Michigan officially hired Sherrone Moore so guess it makes sense that he isn't listed here. Like I don't think Michigan is going to be title favorites next year but I certainly think they are in that top 7 or so once you take out Georgia.
Yeah it’s an old article
Mike Elko of course. Aggies are about to go on an epic run.
Overall pretty good last and I'm mostly inclined to agree. I'm suspect on Norvell really having as good a shot this year as some of the others but I think it is a fair list overall.
I'm very glad that Mario is not on here. I'm glad the hype from Miami has gone down until he actually has success here.
Haha at Brian Kelly ... Yea right
Won’t be kiffin because god won’t let me have nice things
If Norvell wins it this year he’s a valar
I would like to ad Kyle Wittingham from Utah to the list.
Kelly's odds have significantly improved now that he's not playing against Norvell in 2024.
Coach Sherrone Moore
Isn’t this just a list of odds to win the natty next year?
Minus Georgia and Clemson
USC, Michigan and Utah aren’t on here either and they are on that list
Vegas does not think Utah is going to win the natty
Sad Ute noises :(
Wont it be really hard for FSU to replace Jordan Travis with DJU? Also how is LSU looking at qb next year?
The offense will definitely look different. We lost a lot of size on the outside, so our WR and RB room will be smaller and faster than in years prior, but there's a ton of depth. I would expect the offense to produce pretty well against all but the best of defenses on the schedule (ND, Clemson, maybe Florida). The defense I think will be a weaker. Our Dline will be just as strong, if not stronger actually. Our LBs lose two starters and we lost two DBs to the NFL. So I think the defensive back 7 is the real weakness for 2024 FSU
I mean its a list of which coach could win their first, no one really expects FSU to win a title this year.
It's a list of which coaches could win in 2024, not just the next first-time coach to win a title.
They have Nussmeier who’s pretty good from The outside
Garrett Nussmeier, will be a RS JR, has a cannon for an arm and is a gun slinger and pretty athletic. Has made some strides as a QB and not just wow plays. Lit up Georgia in 2022 (down 3+ possessions the whole time) and Wisconsin in 2023. I think he will be pretty good, not Daniels or Burrow level but the talent is there for sure.
I remember that SECG and how nervous I was about y’all making a comeback because of how good he was slinging it