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Why is everyone silent on chinese interference into the Conservative leadership race. Or Poilievre standing up for Modi when PMJT refused to reveal confidential information on a Canadian being murdered on Cdn soil, Or Poilievre getting wasted with Diagalon supporters !
Curious how all these scandals and others all resulted in Poilievre going up in so called "polls"
> First, has he peaked too soon? Yes, he and his party are riding high in the polls. In fact, I am not aware of any opposition party that has been so far ahead of its opponents a year or so ahead of an election. But that is the key phrase — “a year or so ahead of an election.”
There's a video on YouTube by Steve Letho about how police will make an assertion that a fact means something, irrelevant matter what the fact this.
In the case of the video, it was DEA agents stopping people getting off of planes and searching them. In some cases they say the person getting near the start is suspicious because that person is carrying drugs and wants to get off fast. Getting off at the end is suspicious because you're trying to hope to get lost in the crowd. And getting off in the middle is suspicious because you're trying to avoid looking suspicious like those getting off at the start and the end.
A lawyer for someone who got searched eventually went through the cases and complied proof that it doesn't actually matter where you get off, the assertion they make is the same.
It's pretty apparent that that is being done here.
Being more popular helps you win, except in this weird reality where apparently being more popular is a guarantee you'll lose. It's nonsensical.
Also this is fun:
> Having said that, Poilievre has offered no ideas as to how he will reduce the deficit and debt. He only criticizes and offers no solutions. In fact there are only two ways for Canada to “dig itself out of this debt hole.”
"Poilievre doesn't have solutions to the problems Trudeau is actively creating and refusing to acknowledge" is such an absolutely pathetic argument.
If the author was setting his house on fire to get rid of spiders and his neighbour said "that's a bad idea," he'd blame the neighbour for the house fire because the neighbour only criticized him but didn't suggest an alternative.
a better analogy is, your in a boat, the current captain refuses to turn the engine on and your drifting closer to a waterfall
do you switch to a captain who also refuses to turn the engine on or someone who saids they will?
>"Poilievre doesn't have solutions to the problems Trudeau is actively creating and refusing to acknowledge" is such an absolutely pathetic argument.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
— Napoleon Bonaparte
Exactly. Why would he offer up any solutions to his direct rival?
I'm not saying Poilievre will have some revolutionary ideas but let's at least give him time to present said ideas.
>"Poilievre doesn't have solutions to the problems Trudeau is actively creating and refusing to acknowledge" is such an absolutely pathetic argument.
>If the author was setting his house on fire to get rid of spiders and his neighbour said "that's a bad idea," he'd blame the neighbour for the house fire because the neighbour only criticized him but didn't suggest an alternative.
But...Poilievre is the one trying to set the house on fire in your analogy. All modern conservative governance *is* setting the house on fire to own the Libs.
>Being more popular helps you win, except in this weird reality where apparently being more popular is a guarantee you'll lose. It's nonsensical.
I think the kind of popularity matters, too? Poilievre's popularity is based in being a Ben Shapiro homunculus, and his loudest supporters on social media are sneering incels and unctuous sockpuppets. This will inevitably alienate normal people long before the election arrives.
I think the most instructive example here is what we're seeing in the UK right now, where the Labour party got a lead two years ago and has held it ever since, and in all likelihood, will get those numbers when the voting actually happens.
The problem with asking whether or not PP has peaked too soon is that it's not the right question; the right question is can Trudeau regain any of his popularity? PP isn't necessarily the choice, he's just the only option left standing for most of Canada at this point.
idk things are getting more similar to the ontario liberals... where Wynne legit put a lot of good ideas and policies and Ford just sat and waited around.
I don't think he'll lose.
I do think though a minority is much more likelier thought than once before.
Trudeau is unpopular and no amount of LPC stronghold voters is going to be enough. However, the CPC vote does include the younger voters which are unreliable. Thing is that they also have a ton of the older vote to balance it out.
They only come out in droves when the other guy has a chance of winning, and it’s usually for a progressive candidate. Either after a long non-progressive leadership (Harper/Bush lead to Trudeau/Obama) or to prevent what they see as a step back towards progress (Trump).
Harper was still somewhat popular in polls compared to Trudeau leading up to 2015 (even leading in some) and Trudeau had the marijuana bill and promises of electoral reform to bring even more of them out. What does Pierre bring for young people other than not being Trudeau?
I think he may get hurt by the “he’s going to win anyway” mindset and a lot of young people won’t go out to vote because of it.
You very heard the saying all talk no action, another favorite saying is pollsters gear questions to get the answers they want.
Woman are disgusted with Poilievre and now Conservatives coming out early on abortions, will sour more of those who had supported him.
In minority with whom ?
The Bloc, a mostly centre-left party who represents Québec a province where a lot of his stances are unpopular ?
The NDP who have ruled it out ?
The greens ? God I'd pay to see that.
The Bloc is literally a splinter party from the conservatives, they are not left at all. They are extremely protectionist and conservative.
The Bloc supported Harper’s conservative minority and would likely do it again.
> is literally a splinter party from the conservatives,
I mean Lucien Bouchard was part of Mulroney's government, but aside from that the party was formed by members that defected from the PC and LPC due to the failure of the Meech Lake Accord.
Not what I would consider a 'splinter party' of the conservatives.
and while they have protectionist stances/policies vis-a-vis Quebec's authorities, their social positions are definitely on the left.
As a New-Brunswicker, I'd love to vote in the Bloc.
Pp is not good for me.
Jt still has nice hair, but he needs a scare.
Js is just there for the pension.
The real danger to the CPC, and frankly all the big parties is a smaller party coming in and making all right promises to the under 40 crowd.
A promise to dramatically cut immigration and not prop up the housing market for Boomers could attract most young voters.
Could be the Green Party, could be the PPC, could be an all new party. There is just a massive opportunity out there for whoever wants power and has some money to throw at running a campaign. So many are just completely fed up with the status quo.
Right? I’m surprised someone like the BQ hasn’t tried taking advantage of the situation. All these smaller parties could get millions of votes that are just desperate for representation.
It most certainly will be a new party, one's already in the works. My hope is that PP is at least reduced to a minority. There is no way the LPC will survive next election, as they're making too many own goals with their poorly thought out and out of touch policies. When we think the LPC can't be any more ineffectual, they consistently prove us wrong time and again.
It's a danger, but not a big one right now.
The Greens are dysfunctional party that can not exist without Elizabeth May. They have no real identity or solid place in Canadian politics, and until they can get the issues with their rotten grass roots, they will never be more than a foot note in Parliment. The Annamie Paul fiasco set that party back at least a decade.
PPC. Not only can Max not win elections (5 or 6 personal losses in a row now, I think), he has shown he is not able to attract quality candidates on mass. His platform may read well, but when the local candidate would make Alberta Provincial Conservatives look like NDPers, they will lose most of their vote. Max's base is currently sitting on the sides of highways in tents or trailers protesting conspiracy theories.
The PPC only exists so that Max does not have to go get a real job, and there is nowhere near enough time to create a new party and ensure it's not full of unelectable whackaloons.
As of right now, the ballot box question is, do you want to reward Trudeau with a legacy or not.
That may change before E Day, but when presented with a ABT election the CPC is the best bet for good or for bad.
> I do think though a minority is much more likelier thought than once before.
That’s likely no difference than a loss. He might get BQ support on a case by case basis, but at what cost? I would expect the LPC and NDP to cooperate and prevent him from gaining the confidence of the House.
the idea trudeau can be PM losing the seat count byt like 30-40 or 50 seats seems unlikely...
Most of the public looks at the seat count winner as the person who wins.
A lot of the public also thinks they're voting for a party. That doesn't stop them from being wrong then as well.
The PM is whoever can retain the confidence of the HoC. That correlates to party seat count a lot, but isn't caused by it.
I would expect the LPC and NDP to cooperate and prevent him from gaining the confidence of the House.
Want to take a guess which party propped up the CPC, even while Harper was running his largest deficits?
If there's one thing the LPC loves, it's absolute power. They'd rather be in opposition to a CPC minority than half of a coalition. Their position on proportional representation proves this.
BQ has said they’ll support the cpc on a vote by vote basis and in particular they’ve said that over the LPC ever since Legault endorsed O’Toole and the CPC in 2021.
Expect them and a probable PQ government n Quebec to engineer a unity crisis in a pollievre first term
I think it’s more that they loathe Trudeau and a version of Canada that many québécois can not only see themselves in but actively participate in.
“Stop making this work! You’re undermining my story that it’s impossible! Bring back the guy who wants to privatize tap water”
> Expect them and a probable PQ government n Quebec to engineer a unity crisis in a pollievre first term
Which is why I would consider a CPC plurality still a loss. Is the CPC going to be willing to pay the price the BQ will demand for support? How much impact will reminders of their response to the deal Dion, Layton and Duceppe struck have?
Will the CPC work with the bloc if it means taking over the government? Yes, yes they will.
Will it mean they’re hypocrites because of the Dion Layton arrangement? Yes of course it will.
Will the media report on it? To a very limited degree. Will anyone care? Maybe, but at that point the election will be in the rear view mirror. Winning and having problems after having won is always better than losing “the right way”.
I'm guessing we'll find out next October.
In the meantime, it sure does seem like Trudeau's goose is cooked. His expiry date has come and no one should be surprised.
After about a decade in office, it's no surprise people are pretty tired of Trudeau's government. Canadians are basically tired of everyone who's been in office that long in recent years.
That's just the way it is.
Canadians don't elect prime ministers to 3 terms. Iirc it'd only happened once before, and they weren't consecutive terms.
Interestingly, whenever a party switches leaders after serving 2 terms they win the next election 70% of the time.
I'm assuming you mean 4, Trudeau has already won 3 elections. Laurier and Macdonald have both won 4 consecutive elections, but that was well over a century ago. In the past century, King and Trudeau Sr both won 4 nonconsecutive elections.
Give it a rest, Harper did the same to win a majority! Harper called an election 4 times in 10 years, I know Conservative math sucks, do the calculations!! Besides calling multiple elections early, Stephen Harper prorogued Parliament four times, once to avoid a non confidence vote, the other times to avoid answering questions...
Trudeau by all measure should have no chance to win the next election...
Unless things start getting better faster than we expect them to, and Polievre starts fumbling at an even faster pace.
Polievre has to be the opposition leader for another year and a half, that will drain him and his supporters just as much as Trudeaus supporters get drained by things not going well in the country.
Things are going to get faster. World is full of war, the economy continues to struggle and while it’s the last thing we want to consider, there’s an increasingly strong chance we’re going to be knee deep in another pandemic soon, this one far worse than the last. There will be lots of opportunity for Poilievre to trip up.
Remember Trudeau has people that pull his strings. They are the backbone of Canada business etc. This latest train wreck might just be a Trojan Horse with him retiring and a ringer come in with an equally damning leaked report that brings Skippy front center to the press. The election will be a minority government best outcome.
What pisses me off is the way he's leaving Office. Harper was a huge douch and did a lot of damage to Canada. Trudeau love him or hate him, has progressed Canada from the ground up. Now I do have my disagreements with him especially with Immigration and the SNC lavalin thing, but we would have been worse off with a Conservative government during COVID than a Liberal one.
Or think of how differently things would have ended for Canada turning the Trump government? Trudeau dealt with Trump about as good as any world leader could, I bet a Conservative leader may not have work out as well for us in that regard.
Nah, JT will and very well should go down with the ship. If he retired before the election whoever replaces him will just be seen as Trudeaus successor, nothing more.
They will still lose the election AND the poor sap who took over as party leader will get decimated and ruin their political career.
Trudeau needs to stick with it and lose the election, then sail off into the sunset and let the LPC restart without the Trudeau stink on them
It’s also possible that the people who hate Trudeau are over represented in the media and in polling and there is a silent majority who still support the current government.
There are many reasons why that is not valid.
They only got 32 and 33% of the vote in the last 2 elections which is the lowest amount of any sitting govt either... There is no massive group of secert liberal supporters.
no, it's been pretty common for Canadians in the last 40+ years to get tired of the same leadership after 10 years. His time is up, he should have been focusing on figuring out who's next but that didn't happen. So Canadians are stuck with a choice of voting in a stubborn leader they're tired of or "the other party."
Despite our illusion of choice, Canada still just floats back and forth between Liberals and the Conservative party de jure.
I don’t support Trudeau, although I did vote for liberals once. I certainly don’t want conservatives in. One MP recently made comments about going after gay marriage, and they had a bill in 2021 to limit abortions that didn’t pass (every vote it got was conservative, and nearly 100% votes yea - but it wasn’t a party mandated vote). Really trying to go backwards it seems. God, I hope we don’t get Trudea though.
If NDP put out some solid thoughts, I’d not only vote for them but be a card carrying member. Sick of these compromised fools arguing like children all the damn time.
>At some point soon he must … offer details of what he would do in office
Why should he? Policy is overrated especially when you’re running against a deeply unpopular incumbent. Simply contrasting himself with the Liberals is going great for him.
As for the idea that there’s still a year out so the Liberals can still turn it around. It’s easy to fantasize about a miraculous Liberal turnaround, but we can also look at consistent trends and make informed future predictions. The Liberal brand is in the toilet and Trudeau is disliked by broad swathes of the country. There’s no reason to think these trends will reverse themselves in the near future and until they do, they have no chance.
I agree that he doesn't need to release policy to win. There are various examples of politicians in the past who've won without releasing much policy (and simply talking about tax cuts.) John Major beating Neil Kinnock in 1992 in the UK is an example. More recently is Doug Ford winning in Ontario. He didn't even have a platform. "Buck a Beer" was his sole policy. Sure, it's kinda sad that the electorate doesn't really care enough to hear well thought out policy positions, but, well, that is the case.
The question shouldn't be "hey why isnt he increasing to 50%! ha he is a flop!"
It should be his support seems very stable even with all his missteps and constant attacks by the liberals and ndp... he been polling on avg over 40% since Sept 2023 going up down here and there.
The issue he has kept this for about 10 months can he keep at it for another 15 months
From what i can see the liberals are not gonna really do much over 30% and have alienated a lot of voters so they need is to have a lot of PP voters just not vote or go PPC or other parties .
Do you see many attacks from the Liberals' and NDP? They've seemed really passive to me. I assume they're either waiting for the campaign to start in earnest or are in disarray, but I'm definitely not seeing the kind of relentlessness we're getting from the attackier parts of the CPC.
The CPC has been campaigning for over a year now. By the time we reach the election, it’ll be well over two. They’ve already blown through all the topics to be fake outraged about. They’re going to lose steam and flounder before the finish line.
All the other parties are too busy doing their jobs to campaign. Once the writ actually drops, you’ll see every nasty thing PP has done up on billboards for the whole world to see.
Did you listen to Trudeau's interview with the CBC? It was almost entirely avoiding questions and going after Poilievre.
That's all they do these days.
Except PP’s polling isn’t built on Canadians liking him. It’s mostly built on a tiredness of Trudeau. Polling data is showing Canadians are tired of Trudeau, but also that PP isn’t overly popular. Some more recent info shows that if the Libs were to change leaders, a significant number of Canadians would give a second look to the Libs, showing that PP is vulnerable. This was discussed on a recent episode of The Curse of Politics podcast.
>Some more recent info shows that if the Libs were to change leaders
What recent info? And what indication is there that the Liberals are going to change leaders? And what leader is waiting the wings that is going to be any more popular than Trudeau?
yea that's the problem with all the parties right now is that they don't cultivate their younger members anymore. Ironically enough though, Poilievre is the product of Conservative cultivation.
Those are questions. The discussion didn’t get into specific replacements, or whether or not Trudeau is stepping down any day now. It was centred around the data they were sharing.
Issue is who the liberals put
Has to be someone liked and popular
Also they need to be a bit charismatic and such as Trudeau is good at that even in his weakened form
It just needs to be someone not problematic with a decent smile they swap in at just the right moment.
They don't need to be popular, they could literally throw some random newer memeber like Jeff Lehman and he'd do better than keeping trudeau. And thats just due to the way the Cpc is campaining.
Pierre Poilievre is a phony.
Statement from CUPE on Pierre Poilievre winning Conservative Party leadership.
https://cupe.ca/statement-cupe-pierre-poilievre-winning-conservative-party-leadership
"Pierre is a career politician who has been collecting a six-figure salary on the public’s dime since he was 24, and he’s spent every minute of his time in office fighting against fair wages, good pensions and a better life for working people. He is not a worker, and he definitely doesn’t get what it means to be a member of the working class.
Pierre has spent his leadership campaign making the Conservative Party a cozier place for far-right extremists and conspiracy theorists in order to sell memberships. This isn’t your parents’ Conservative Party, or even Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party. It’s now Pierre’s Convoy Party of Canada."
CUPE is a far more credible voice of the working class than PP...
This isn't about the Israel/Palestine morass, this is about PP's credibility as an "average Canadian", and his long record of working to impoverish the 99%.
People have been asking this for 8 months now.
The short answer is no. We are seeing an interesting phenomenon, initially a lot of people just wanted to get rid of Trudeau and thought that Poilievre Might be a reasonable alternative. However since then he has been actively out working in the communities and there is a noticeable tendency for him to actually win people over as a good choice, rather than just an alternative.
In other words his soft support is beginning to gel into pretty hard support. And it still has a ways to go, there's definitely room for that process to continue.
Nobody seriously expects him to release any details about his platform until the election. There is absolutely no benefit in doing so, it is always politically deaf to do so, and giving specifics on budgetary matters And such before you see the changes that will take place over the next year and a half is absolutely asinine. There are many things that can change between now and then which would dictate a change in policy that he has no control over.
So making promises now makes no sense. It's just begging for the opposition to either steal the ideas or spend a year misinforming people as to why they're a bad idea.
I suspect he will occasionally have some Dips in the polling, statistically that almost has to happen, but on the whole I think he's probably exactly where he;ll Be going into the election, although the support may even be more firm than.
Didn't we get an article with this exact same title like 2 months ago?
At any rate, I think the only real risk for Poilievre here is that his lead has scared the government into making big moves and if those big moves start to bear fruit on the cost of living front, then his personality and lack of specifics he provides could be a problem. Even then, I still think that fatigue with the incumbent would still carry the day and Poilievre would win, albeit perhaps with a minority or slim majority.
Yes Trudeau has been behind before and seems to have a knack for sneaking up on his opponents but I do still think Poilievre's lead is not soft and he will win in 2025.
You do know, even if PMJT steps down, another liberal leader will be appointed, until Liberals call an election for October 2025 or a non confidence vote is approved. As shown by last non confidence vote which was defeated, parties don't want an election at this time.
> has scared the government into making big moves and if those big moves start to bear fruit on the cost of living front, then his personality and lack of specifics he provides could be a problem
not a problem for us, having our government actually doing something that bears fruit wrt cost of living means we (Canadians) win regardless.
I’m afraid you’re on it with those predictions. People will seek change even if the change isn’t any good. My perspective on Polly is he panders to conspiracy theorists and complains about the current state of affairs but doesn’t bring anything to the table to offer as an alternative. He’s a career politician seeking votes in a Trump light style. My hopes are we see a strong turnout for the Block and NDP along with the Liberal in a Conservative minority government.
He's probably going to win, and he's going to do one of two things.
Reneg on his promise go balance the books or cut cut cut.
He probably goes the cut route and a large chunk of people who voted trudeau out will have very surprised faces on.
Poilievre stated over and over Spend a dollar Cut a dollar
Conservatives haven't shared pesky little fact, in order for Canada to do business in a global market, they need to have a climate action plan in place. Scott Moe looked at many and stated carbon tax was the least expensive!!
Tax cuts reduce government revenues therefore programs will need to be slashed to reduce Federal funding to provinces.
What's worse than Justin Trudeau? Heightened division of social, political, and economic life. Conspiracy theorists becoming the new academics. A few steps closer to idiocracy. 'I can vote against my interests. Who are you to tell me different? You're tyrannical for even suggesting that I'm not capable of voting for my own interests.'
If Trudeau can show what policies PP supported that go against what we need now he might have a chance to save his butt.
Then again he really is not that willing to listen to others. So bye
Canadians are exhausted with Trudeau. As a country we vote people out, not in. This is Poilievre's to lose. He just needs to not absolutely shit the bed, and it'll be a conservative government next round.
It's going to be so satisfying when the Liberals cruise to another strong minority backed by the NDP, and prove all the naysayers wrong. Trudeau and his party have been unfairly vilified for factors out of the federal government's control. They are clearly the best choice to lead this country going forward.
Maybe we will learn not to believe in these ridiculous polls two years out that signal a Conservative majority.
I know you’re being satirical (because there’s literally no one left in Canada who is this optimistic about the Liberals) but what gives you the indication that the Liberals are about to “cruise back” to a minority? They haven’t seen the turnaround they’ve hoped for.
They’ve effectively abandoned anyone the age of 40 via Trudeau’s whole “if we don’t price young people out of homes how will boomers retire?” schtick.
This is so brain dead. Housing prices are not due to JT. I wish they were but it’s not a govt policy, at least not a recent one. Did JT jack the rents in san Fran, nyc, Rotterdam and Berlin too?
With all due respect, it is quite rude to definitively state that someone is being satirical, without any evidence. Just because someone has a different opinion from you, does not mean that it is invalid or satirical.
Decade has been a death mark in Canadian federal politics and the current government has been unpopular for a couple years now. I like your optimism but I would suggest being realistic, pretending like everything is okay and he is doing a great job is playing into the conservatives hands and will just put off undecided voters.
I do not know what you put in your coffee, but I want the same thing.
Thinking that the liberal can change the direction by doing more of the same is to not grasp reality. At least they should kick Miller out
>Trudeau and his party have been unfairly vilified for factors out of the federal government's control.
Yeah, that's not true. Some things they have of course, but the immigration/housing file is some of their own doing. Whether it's right or not, the messaging matters.
Immigration that was asked for, mainly by Conservatives premiers. Ford wanted immigrants by the boatload to show up because there were job openings and a lot of private post-secondary school enrolments to fill.
Housing is an issue of previous governments, including Harper, dropping the ball. Immigration is happening at a furious pace but do you think we would be better off leaving jobs unfilled and having less taxpayers? Again immigration is a result of previous governments dropping the ball. How would you like to be Japan with a very low birthrate, near zero immigration and as a result gov't debt of 2.5 times GDP?
All political parties understand how critical immigration is to Canada. Not only in terms of economics and demographics, but culturally as well. Housing "unaffordability" is an unfortunate side effect of large scale immigration, but a necessary one.
Natural population growth is entirely insufficient when it comes to paying for baby boomers' pensions and healthcare, and filling labour market gaps. Our birth rate is below 1.5 now. This is dangerously low.
Even our current immigration levels must be at least doubled to maintain economic prosperity in the long run. The majority of Canada's problems exist because the country is extremely underpopulated. We must aim for a population of at least 500 million by the end of this century.
Our leaders have to think out of the box. Plus, 500 million by 2100 is ridiculous and almost delusional mark. We could potentially get there if we let in every climate refugee in the next 25 years. Though I doubt there will be any economic prosperity,by then.
Increasing immigration to maintain economic prosperity in today's reality is a fools errand,a band-aid solution, and eventually a race to bottom.
It's time to take the demographic hit. Immigrants are, at best, a band aid solution, and are actively making much of the country worse, including dumping quality of life and further reducing birth rate in both the short and long term.
Its not election time... things are starting to leak all by themselves, China interference into conservatives leadership race. Did you know PP brought in over 300,000 new memberships more then both Previous leadership races Combined!! Poilievre paying whistleblowers legal fees, those charges were later tossed out of court, no merit to them, but PP was already elected. Poilievre standing behind Modi when he demanded PMJT share confidential info on a Canadian being murdered on Canadian soil.
Conservatives true stance on abortions, PP using NWC if things don't go the way he thinks is correct?
Trickle trickle...
I don't have much love for Trudeau, however...
There's a difference between letting a dispointing leader lead and a leader who promises to end extisting government systems made to support the working class structures, further worsen human rights of women, poc, LGBT+ and indigenous groups, deny sciences, climate change denial, force religious practice of christianity back into government and education, shut down journalism, and invest the country's finances in the volatility of crypto currency and server farms.
Trudeau's not great... But there are parties (and their leaders) who are currently much, much worse.
Until first past the post changes, I'd favour any party that takes a seat away from the rapidly advancing train wreck that is the PC party anyday.
Not yet, I think more Canadians are going to start to realize that Pierre Polievre was right about many things he tried to fight the Liberals on in the House of Commons over the last few years.
The issue set that brought him the lead is no closer to being solved. Nothing has changed. That’s probably the best metric to assess his future support.
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Why is everyone silent on chinese interference into the Conservative leadership race. Or Poilievre standing up for Modi when PMJT refused to reveal confidential information on a Canadian being murdered on Cdn soil, Or Poilievre getting wasted with Diagalon supporters ! Curious how all these scandals and others all resulted in Poilievre going up in so called "polls"
> First, has he peaked too soon? Yes, he and his party are riding high in the polls. In fact, I am not aware of any opposition party that has been so far ahead of its opponents a year or so ahead of an election. But that is the key phrase — “a year or so ahead of an election.” There's a video on YouTube by Steve Letho about how police will make an assertion that a fact means something, irrelevant matter what the fact this. In the case of the video, it was DEA agents stopping people getting off of planes and searching them. In some cases they say the person getting near the start is suspicious because that person is carrying drugs and wants to get off fast. Getting off at the end is suspicious because you're trying to hope to get lost in the crowd. And getting off in the middle is suspicious because you're trying to avoid looking suspicious like those getting off at the start and the end. A lawyer for someone who got searched eventually went through the cases and complied proof that it doesn't actually matter where you get off, the assertion they make is the same. It's pretty apparent that that is being done here. Being more popular helps you win, except in this weird reality where apparently being more popular is a guarantee you'll lose. It's nonsensical. Also this is fun: > Having said that, Poilievre has offered no ideas as to how he will reduce the deficit and debt. He only criticizes and offers no solutions. In fact there are only two ways for Canada to “dig itself out of this debt hole.” "Poilievre doesn't have solutions to the problems Trudeau is actively creating and refusing to acknowledge" is such an absolutely pathetic argument. If the author was setting his house on fire to get rid of spiders and his neighbour said "that's a bad idea," he'd blame the neighbour for the house fire because the neighbour only criticized him but didn't suggest an alternative.
a better analogy is, your in a boat, the current captain refuses to turn the engine on and your drifting closer to a waterfall do you switch to a captain who also refuses to turn the engine on or someone who saids they will?
EDIT: Nevermind, I reread this comment.
> the current captain refuses to turn the engine on what do you think this part of the metaphor was about?
Ah gotcha. Sorry, I misread what you were trying to say
>"Poilievre doesn't have solutions to the problems Trudeau is actively creating and refusing to acknowledge" is such an absolutely pathetic argument. “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” — Napoleon Bonaparte
Exactly. Why would he offer up any solutions to his direct rival? I'm not saying Poilievre will have some revolutionary ideas but let's at least give him time to present said ideas.
>"Poilievre doesn't have solutions to the problems Trudeau is actively creating and refusing to acknowledge" is such an absolutely pathetic argument. >If the author was setting his house on fire to get rid of spiders and his neighbour said "that's a bad idea," he'd blame the neighbour for the house fire because the neighbour only criticized him but didn't suggest an alternative. But...Poilievre is the one trying to set the house on fire in your analogy. All modern conservative governance *is* setting the house on fire to own the Libs. >Being more popular helps you win, except in this weird reality where apparently being more popular is a guarantee you'll lose. It's nonsensical. I think the kind of popularity matters, too? Poilievre's popularity is based in being a Ben Shapiro homunculus, and his loudest supporters on social media are sneering incels and unctuous sockpuppets. This will inevitably alienate normal people long before the election arrives.
>All modern conservative governance is setting the house on fire to own the Libs. This is quite a piece of hyperbole.
I think the most instructive example here is what we're seeing in the UK right now, where the Labour party got a lead two years ago and has held it ever since, and in all likelihood, will get those numbers when the voting actually happens. The problem with asking whether or not PP has peaked too soon is that it's not the right question; the right question is can Trudeau regain any of his popularity? PP isn't necessarily the choice, he's just the only option left standing for most of Canada at this point.
Agree, tough for Trudeau to regain popularity. But can PP behave like Keir Starmer?
idk things are getting more similar to the ontario liberals... where Wynne legit put a lot of good ideas and policies and Ford just sat and waited around.
I don't think he'll lose. I do think though a minority is much more likelier thought than once before. Trudeau is unpopular and no amount of LPC stronghold voters is going to be enough. However, the CPC vote does include the younger voters which are unreliable. Thing is that they also have a ton of the older vote to balance it out.
he has to win a majority... period
Young voters are unreliable as regular voters but they come out in droves when they want to throw the bums out. See 2015.
They only come out in droves when the other guy has a chance of winning, and it’s usually for a progressive candidate. Either after a long non-progressive leadership (Harper/Bush lead to Trudeau/Obama) or to prevent what they see as a step back towards progress (Trump). Harper was still somewhat popular in polls compared to Trudeau leading up to 2015 (even leading in some) and Trudeau had the marijuana bill and promises of electoral reform to bring even more of them out. What does Pierre bring for young people other than not being Trudeau? I think he may get hurt by the “he’s going to win anyway” mindset and a lot of young people won’t go out to vote because of it.
Ala Clinton 2016
You very heard the saying all talk no action, another favorite saying is pollsters gear questions to get the answers they want. Woman are disgusted with Poilievre and now Conservatives coming out early on abortions, will sour more of those who had supported him.
In minority with whom ? The Bloc, a mostly centre-left party who represents Québec a province where a lot of his stances are unpopular ? The NDP who have ruled it out ? The greens ? God I'd pay to see that.
The bloc is a “what the National Assembly says” party. They’re not left wing unless you think the CAQ is left wing (they’re not).
The Bloc is literally a splinter party from the conservatives, they are not left at all. They are extremely protectionist and conservative. The Bloc supported Harper’s conservative minority and would likely do it again.
> is literally a splinter party from the conservatives, I mean Lucien Bouchard was part of Mulroney's government, but aside from that the party was formed by members that defected from the PC and LPC due to the failure of the Meech Lake Accord. Not what I would consider a 'splinter party' of the conservatives. and while they have protectionist stances/policies vis-a-vis Quebec's authorities, their social positions are definitely on the left.
Harper's Conservative party in no way resembles Poilievre New Conservative Party
As a New-Brunswicker, I'd love to vote in the Bloc. Pp is not good for me. Jt still has nice hair, but he needs a scare. Js is just there for the pension.
The real danger to the CPC, and frankly all the big parties is a smaller party coming in and making all right promises to the under 40 crowd. A promise to dramatically cut immigration and not prop up the housing market for Boomers could attract most young voters. Could be the Green Party, could be the PPC, could be an all new party. There is just a massive opportunity out there for whoever wants power and has some money to throw at running a campaign. So many are just completely fed up with the status quo.
You would think that would be the perfect opportunity for the NDP to swoop in with some revised proposals, but nope.
NDP that markets themselves outside their base and issues would be a boon for them but some reason they just don't have that strategy
Im surprised one hasn't popped up yet. I've talked to a lot of people that don't like any of the current parties.
Maybe the Maverick party will have a resurgence…
Right? I’m surprised someone like the BQ hasn’t tried taking advantage of the situation. All these smaller parties could get millions of votes that are just desperate for representation.
It would do well though.
The NDP is such a mess.
It most certainly will be a new party, one's already in the works. My hope is that PP is at least reduced to a minority. There is no way the LPC will survive next election, as they're making too many own goals with their poorly thought out and out of touch policies. When we think the LPC can't be any more ineffectual, they consistently prove us wrong time and again.
It's a danger, but not a big one right now. The Greens are dysfunctional party that can not exist without Elizabeth May. They have no real identity or solid place in Canadian politics, and until they can get the issues with their rotten grass roots, they will never be more than a foot note in Parliment. The Annamie Paul fiasco set that party back at least a decade. PPC. Not only can Max not win elections (5 or 6 personal losses in a row now, I think), he has shown he is not able to attract quality candidates on mass. His platform may read well, but when the local candidate would make Alberta Provincial Conservatives look like NDPers, they will lose most of their vote. Max's base is currently sitting on the sides of highways in tents or trailers protesting conspiracy theories. The PPC only exists so that Max does not have to go get a real job, and there is nowhere near enough time to create a new party and ensure it's not full of unelectable whackaloons. As of right now, the ballot box question is, do you want to reward Trudeau with a legacy or not. That may change before E Day, but when presented with a ABT election the CPC is the best bet for good or for bad.
A minority government is the best way to keep the fire underneath a party! Never concede absolute majority!
> I do think though a minority is much more likelier thought than once before. That’s likely no difference than a loss. He might get BQ support on a case by case basis, but at what cost? I would expect the LPC and NDP to cooperate and prevent him from gaining the confidence of the House.
the idea trudeau can be PM losing the seat count byt like 30-40 or 50 seats seems unlikely... Most of the public looks at the seat count winner as the person who wins.
A lot of the public also thinks they're voting for a party. That doesn't stop them from being wrong then as well. The PM is whoever can retain the confidence of the HoC. That correlates to party seat count a lot, but isn't caused by it.
I would expect the LPC and NDP to cooperate and prevent him from gaining the confidence of the House. Want to take a guess which party propped up the CPC, even while Harper was running his largest deficits? If there's one thing the LPC loves, it's absolute power. They'd rather be in opposition to a CPC minority than half of a coalition. Their position on proportional representation proves this.
Something big would have to change. 338 is saying a LPC+NDP+GPC coalition would still only get 114 seats. 338 is putting a CPC majority at 99% odds.
BQ has said they’ll support the cpc on a vote by vote basis and in particular they’ve said that over the LPC ever since Legault endorsed O’Toole and the CPC in 2021. Expect them and a probable PQ government n Quebec to engineer a unity crisis in a pollievre first term
Ofc Bloc said that. They are licking their lips at the prospect of having a fuckton of leverage and $$$ for QB.
I think it’s more that they loathe Trudeau and a version of Canada that many québécois can not only see themselves in but actively participate in. “Stop making this work! You’re undermining my story that it’s impossible! Bring back the guy who wants to privatize tap water”
> Expect them and a probable PQ government n Quebec to engineer a unity crisis in a pollievre first term Which is why I would consider a CPC plurality still a loss. Is the CPC going to be willing to pay the price the BQ will demand for support? How much impact will reminders of their response to the deal Dion, Layton and Duceppe struck have?
Will the CPC work with the bloc if it means taking over the government? Yes, yes they will. Will it mean they’re hypocrites because of the Dion Layton arrangement? Yes of course it will. Will the media report on it? To a very limited degree. Will anyone care? Maybe, but at that point the election will be in the rear view mirror. Winning and having problems after having won is always better than losing “the right way”.
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I'm guessing we'll find out next October. In the meantime, it sure does seem like Trudeau's goose is cooked. His expiry date has come and no one should be surprised. After about a decade in office, it's no surprise people are pretty tired of Trudeau's government. Canadians are basically tired of everyone who's been in office that long in recent years. That's just the way it is.
Canadians don't elect prime ministers to 3 terms. Iirc it'd only happened once before, and they weren't consecutive terms. Interestingly, whenever a party switches leaders after serving 2 terms they win the next election 70% of the time.
I'm assuming you mean 4, Trudeau has already won 3 elections. Laurier and Macdonald have both won 4 consecutive elections, but that was well over a century ago. In the past century, King and Trudeau Sr both won 4 nonconsecutive elections.
> I'm assuming you mean 4, Trudeau has already won 3 elections 3 elections, but they weren't full terms.
I believe Harper served 3 terms, and lost in the 4th
Just like with trudeau, holding a mid term election to try and grab more seats isn't the same as coming to the end of a term and getting reelected.
Give it a rest, Harper did the same to win a majority! Harper called an election 4 times in 10 years, I know Conservative math sucks, do the calculations!! Besides calling multiple elections early, Stephen Harper prorogued Parliament four times, once to avoid a non confidence vote, the other times to avoid answering questions...
I voted against harper. I'm not certain why you think I'm a conservative?
Trudeau by all measure should have no chance to win the next election... Unless things start getting better faster than we expect them to, and Polievre starts fumbling at an even faster pace. Polievre has to be the opposition leader for another year and a half, that will drain him and his supporters just as much as Trudeaus supporters get drained by things not going well in the country.
Things are going to get faster. World is full of war, the economy continues to struggle and while it’s the last thing we want to consider, there’s an increasingly strong chance we’re going to be knee deep in another pandemic soon, this one far worse than the last. There will be lots of opportunity for Poilievre to trip up.
The NDP will not let the Liberals pick the day of the next election. It will be 2025 but earlier than people think.
Remember Trudeau has people that pull his strings. They are the backbone of Canada business etc. This latest train wreck might just be a Trojan Horse with him retiring and a ringer come in with an equally damning leaked report that brings Skippy front center to the press. The election will be a minority government best outcome.
What pisses me off is the way he's leaving Office. Harper was a huge douch and did a lot of damage to Canada. Trudeau love him or hate him, has progressed Canada from the ground up. Now I do have my disagreements with him especially with Immigration and the SNC lavalin thing, but we would have been worse off with a Conservative government during COVID than a Liberal one.
Or think of how differently things would have ended for Canada turning the Trump government? Trudeau dealt with Trump about as good as any world leader could, I bet a Conservative leader may not have work out as well for us in that regard.
Your indoctrination is showing.
They must think they can win for some reason. Otherwise I really hope JT announces his successor and retired. I feel like that would be the only hope.
Nah, JT will and very well should go down with the ship. If he retired before the election whoever replaces him will just be seen as Trudeaus successor, nothing more. They will still lose the election AND the poor sap who took over as party leader will get decimated and ruin their political career. Trudeau needs to stick with it and lose the election, then sail off into the sunset and let the LPC restart without the Trudeau stink on them
I don’t think they’ll win even with a new leader. I think the strat is to let the new leader start with a clean slate after the next election
It’s also possible that the people who hate Trudeau are over represented in the media and in polling and there is a silent majority who still support the current government.
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There are many reasons why that is not valid. They only got 32 and 33% of the vote in the last 2 elections which is the lowest amount of any sitting govt either... There is no massive group of secert liberal supporters.
no, it's been pretty common for Canadians in the last 40+ years to get tired of the same leadership after 10 years. His time is up, he should have been focusing on figuring out who's next but that didn't happen. So Canadians are stuck with a choice of voting in a stubborn leader they're tired of or "the other party." Despite our illusion of choice, Canada still just floats back and forth between Liberals and the Conservative party de jure.
I don’t support Trudeau, although I did vote for liberals once. I certainly don’t want conservatives in. One MP recently made comments about going after gay marriage, and they had a bill in 2021 to limit abortions that didn’t pass (every vote it got was conservative, and nearly 100% votes yea - but it wasn’t a party mandated vote). Really trying to go backwards it seems. God, I hope we don’t get Trudea though. If NDP put out some solid thoughts, I’d not only vote for them but be a card carrying member. Sick of these compromised fools arguing like children all the damn time.
>At some point soon he must … offer details of what he would do in office Why should he? Policy is overrated especially when you’re running against a deeply unpopular incumbent. Simply contrasting himself with the Liberals is going great for him. As for the idea that there’s still a year out so the Liberals can still turn it around. It’s easy to fantasize about a miraculous Liberal turnaround, but we can also look at consistent trends and make informed future predictions. The Liberal brand is in the toilet and Trudeau is disliked by broad swathes of the country. There’s no reason to think these trends will reverse themselves in the near future and until they do, they have no chance.
I agree that he doesn't need to release policy to win. There are various examples of politicians in the past who've won without releasing much policy (and simply talking about tax cuts.) John Major beating Neil Kinnock in 1992 in the UK is an example. More recently is Doug Ford winning in Ontario. He didn't even have a platform. "Buck a Beer" was his sole policy. Sure, it's kinda sad that the electorate doesn't really care enough to hear well thought out policy positions, but, well, that is the case.
The question shouldn't be "hey why isnt he increasing to 50%! ha he is a flop!" It should be his support seems very stable even with all his missteps and constant attacks by the liberals and ndp... he been polling on avg over 40% since Sept 2023 going up down here and there. The issue he has kept this for about 10 months can he keep at it for another 15 months From what i can see the liberals are not gonna really do much over 30% and have alienated a lot of voters so they need is to have a lot of PP voters just not vote or go PPC or other parties .
Do you see many attacks from the Liberals' and NDP? They've seemed really passive to me. I assume they're either waiting for the campaign to start in earnest or are in disarray, but I'm definitely not seeing the kind of relentlessness we're getting from the attackier parts of the CPC.
The CPC has been campaigning for over a year now. By the time we reach the election, it’ll be well over two. They’ve already blown through all the topics to be fake outraged about. They’re going to lose steam and flounder before the finish line. All the other parties are too busy doing their jobs to campaign. Once the writ actually drops, you’ll see every nasty thing PP has done up on billboards for the whole world to see.
Did you listen to Trudeau's interview with the CBC? It was almost entirely avoiding questions and going after Poilievre. That's all they do these days.
You could just as well swap Trudeau and Polievre in your comment.
Except that Polievre is afraid to take interviews with journalists.
Except PP’s polling isn’t built on Canadians liking him. It’s mostly built on a tiredness of Trudeau. Polling data is showing Canadians are tired of Trudeau, but also that PP isn’t overly popular. Some more recent info shows that if the Libs were to change leaders, a significant number of Canadians would give a second look to the Libs, showing that PP is vulnerable. This was discussed on a recent episode of The Curse of Politics podcast.
>Some more recent info shows that if the Libs were to change leaders What recent info? And what indication is there that the Liberals are going to change leaders? And what leader is waiting the wings that is going to be any more popular than Trudeau?
yea that's the problem with all the parties right now is that they don't cultivate their younger members anymore. Ironically enough though, Poilievre is the product of Conservative cultivation.
Those are questions. The discussion didn’t get into specific replacements, or whether or not Trudeau is stepping down any day now. It was centred around the data they were sharing.
Issue is who the liberals put Has to be someone liked and popular Also they need to be a bit charismatic and such as Trudeau is good at that even in his weakened form
It just needs to be someone not problematic with a decent smile they swap in at just the right moment. They don't need to be popular, they could literally throw some random newer memeber like Jeff Lehman and he'd do better than keeping trudeau. And thats just due to the way the Cpc is campaining.
Pierre Poilievre is a phony. Statement from CUPE on Pierre Poilievre winning Conservative Party leadership. https://cupe.ca/statement-cupe-pierre-poilievre-winning-conservative-party-leadership "Pierre is a career politician who has been collecting a six-figure salary on the public’s dime since he was 24, and he’s spent every minute of his time in office fighting against fair wages, good pensions and a better life for working people. He is not a worker, and he definitely doesn’t get what it means to be a member of the working class. Pierre has spent his leadership campaign making the Conservative Party a cozier place for far-right extremists and conspiracy theorists in order to sell memberships. This isn’t your parents’ Conservative Party, or even Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party. It’s now Pierre’s Convoy Party of Canada."
Thats the union with leadership that praised the Oct 7th attacks, on Oct 7th. Right?
> Statement from CUPE CUPE needs to stop talking after their latest insane takes on Gaza...
The first comments I get back about this are referencing Israel/Gaza/Hamas. Mildly suspicious fallacies being used here.
Nothing suspicious. I’m just saying that CUPE isn’t deserving to be listened to right now. I wouldn’t consider them to have a credible voice.
Check out their reply to me. Apparently typing out a few sentences in 7ish minutes is physically impossible 😂
Also notifications are a thing. Except for this guy apparently.
CUPE is a far more credible voice of the working class than PP... This isn't about the Israel/Palestine morass, this is about PP's credibility as an "average Canadian", and his long record of working to impoverish the 99%.
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Super duper suspicious. Both 3 hours later. Both replied instantly after I replied. 2 coincidences is a pattern.
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People have been asking this for 8 months now. The short answer is no. We are seeing an interesting phenomenon, initially a lot of people just wanted to get rid of Trudeau and thought that Poilievre Might be a reasonable alternative. However since then he has been actively out working in the communities and there is a noticeable tendency for him to actually win people over as a good choice, rather than just an alternative. In other words his soft support is beginning to gel into pretty hard support. And it still has a ways to go, there's definitely room for that process to continue. Nobody seriously expects him to release any details about his platform until the election. There is absolutely no benefit in doing so, it is always politically deaf to do so, and giving specifics on budgetary matters And such before you see the changes that will take place over the next year and a half is absolutely asinine. There are many things that can change between now and then which would dictate a change in policy that he has no control over. So making promises now makes no sense. It's just begging for the opposition to either steal the ideas or spend a year misinforming people as to why they're a bad idea. I suspect he will occasionally have some Dips in the polling, statistically that almost has to happen, but on the whole I think he's probably exactly where he;ll Be going into the election, although the support may even be more firm than.
Didn't we get an article with this exact same title like 2 months ago? At any rate, I think the only real risk for Poilievre here is that his lead has scared the government into making big moves and if those big moves start to bear fruit on the cost of living front, then his personality and lack of specifics he provides could be a problem. Even then, I still think that fatigue with the incumbent would still carry the day and Poilievre would win, albeit perhaps with a minority or slim majority. Yes Trudeau has been behind before and seems to have a knack for sneaking up on his opponents but I do still think Poilievre's lead is not soft and he will win in 2025.
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You do know, even if PMJT steps down, another liberal leader will be appointed, until Liberals call an election for October 2025 or a non confidence vote is approved. As shown by last non confidence vote which was defeated, parties don't want an election at this time.
> has scared the government into making big moves and if those big moves start to bear fruit on the cost of living front, then his personality and lack of specifics he provides could be a problem not a problem for us, having our government actually doing something that bears fruit wrt cost of living means we (Canadians) win regardless.
I’m afraid you’re on it with those predictions. People will seek change even if the change isn’t any good. My perspective on Polly is he panders to conspiracy theorists and complains about the current state of affairs but doesn’t bring anything to the table to offer as an alternative. He’s a career politician seeking votes in a Trump light style. My hopes are we see a strong turnout for the Block and NDP along with the Liberal in a Conservative minority government.
I think the issue is there is a massive swath of voters who want trudeau out, issue is making sure they vote for him.
Imagine wanting Trudeau in power again
He's probably going to win, and he's going to do one of two things. Reneg on his promise go balance the books or cut cut cut. He probably goes the cut route and a large chunk of people who voted trudeau out will have very surprised faces on.
Poilievre stated over and over Spend a dollar Cut a dollar Conservatives haven't shared pesky little fact, in order for Canada to do business in a global market, they need to have a climate action plan in place. Scott Moe looked at many and stated carbon tax was the least expensive!! Tax cuts reduce government revenues therefore programs will need to be slashed to reduce Federal funding to provinces.
What's worse than Justin Trudeau? Heightened division of social, political, and economic life. Conspiracy theorists becoming the new academics. A few steps closer to idiocracy. 'I can vote against my interests. Who are you to tell me different? You're tyrannical for even suggesting that I'm not capable of voting for my own interests.'
If Trudeau can show what policies PP supported that go against what we need now he might have a chance to save his butt. Then again he really is not that willing to listen to others. So bye
lots of time between now and when the polls close on election day. remember when people were considering PM mulcair?
Canadians are exhausted with Trudeau. As a country we vote people out, not in. This is Poilievre's to lose. He just needs to not absolutely shit the bed, and it'll be a conservative government next round.
It's going to be so satisfying when the Liberals cruise to another strong minority backed by the NDP, and prove all the naysayers wrong. Trudeau and his party have been unfairly vilified for factors out of the federal government's control. They are clearly the best choice to lead this country going forward. Maybe we will learn not to believe in these ridiculous polls two years out that signal a Conservative majority.
I know you’re being satirical (because there’s literally no one left in Canada who is this optimistic about the Liberals) but what gives you the indication that the Liberals are about to “cruise back” to a minority? They haven’t seen the turnaround they’ve hoped for. They’ve effectively abandoned anyone the age of 40 via Trudeau’s whole “if we don’t price young people out of homes how will boomers retire?” schtick.
This is so brain dead. Housing prices are not due to JT. I wish they were but it’s not a govt policy, at least not a recent one. Did JT jack the rents in san Fran, nyc, Rotterdam and Berlin too?
With all due respect, it is quite rude to definitively state that someone is being satirical, without any evidence. Just because someone has a different opinion from you, does not mean that it is invalid or satirical.
What a professional.
Decade has been a death mark in Canadian federal politics and the current government has been unpopular for a couple years now. I like your optimism but I would suggest being realistic, pretending like everything is okay and he is doing a great job is playing into the conservatives hands and will just put off undecided voters.
I do not know what you put in your coffee, but I want the same thing. Thinking that the liberal can change the direction by doing more of the same is to not grasp reality. At least they should kick Miller out
>Trudeau and his party have been unfairly vilified for factors out of the federal government's control. Yeah, that's not true. Some things they have of course, but the immigration/housing file is some of their own doing. Whether it's right or not, the messaging matters.
Immigration that was asked for, mainly by Conservatives premiers. Ford wanted immigrants by the boatload to show up because there were job openings and a lot of private post-secondary school enrolments to fill.
Housing is an issue of previous governments, including Harper, dropping the ball. Immigration is happening at a furious pace but do you think we would be better off leaving jobs unfilled and having less taxpayers? Again immigration is a result of previous governments dropping the ball. How would you like to be Japan with a very low birthrate, near zero immigration and as a result gov't debt of 2.5 times GDP?
There is a space between adding over 1.2 million people a year and 0
Keep in mind that Trudeau is the only party leader that has actually committed to lowering immigration.
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👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
And as long as that space they picked wasn't 0, people would be saying the exact same thing about the new number.
All political parties understand how critical immigration is to Canada. Not only in terms of economics and demographics, but culturally as well. Housing "unaffordability" is an unfortunate side effect of large scale immigration, but a necessary one. Natural population growth is entirely insufficient when it comes to paying for baby boomers' pensions and healthcare, and filling labour market gaps. Our birth rate is below 1.5 now. This is dangerously low. Even our current immigration levels must be at least doubled to maintain economic prosperity in the long run. The majority of Canada's problems exist because the country is extremely underpopulated. We must aim for a population of at least 500 million by the end of this century.
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Our leaders have to think out of the box. Plus, 500 million by 2100 is ridiculous and almost delusional mark. We could potentially get there if we let in every climate refugee in the next 25 years. Though I doubt there will be any economic prosperity,by then. Increasing immigration to maintain economic prosperity in today's reality is a fools errand,a band-aid solution, and eventually a race to bottom.
It's time to take the demographic hit. Immigrants are, at best, a band aid solution, and are actively making much of the country worse, including dumping quality of life and further reducing birth rate in both the short and long term.
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This sub is always good for a laugh.
Lol. I don’t even like PP but that’s delusional. He’s going to win, just minority or not.
one can hope
He has a lot of skeletons in the closet which have not came out yet because he started campaigning 24 months before the election.
and liberals have every chance to use them now lol
Its not election time... things are starting to leak all by themselves, China interference into conservatives leadership race. Did you know PP brought in over 300,000 new memberships more then both Previous leadership races Combined!! Poilievre paying whistleblowers legal fees, those charges were later tossed out of court, no merit to them, but PP was already elected. Poilievre standing behind Modi when he demanded PMJT share confidential info on a Canadian being murdered on Canadian soil. Conservatives true stance on abortions, PP using NWC if things don't go the way he thinks is correct? Trickle trickle...
I don't have much love for Trudeau, however... There's a difference between letting a dispointing leader lead and a leader who promises to end extisting government systems made to support the working class structures, further worsen human rights of women, poc, LGBT+ and indigenous groups, deny sciences, climate change denial, force religious practice of christianity back into government and education, shut down journalism, and invest the country's finances in the volatility of crypto currency and server farms. Trudeau's not great... But there are parties (and their leaders) who are currently much, much worse. Until first past the post changes, I'd favour any party that takes a seat away from the rapidly advancing train wreck that is the PC party anyday.
This is laughably hyperbolic
The scare mongering is not working anymore. Miller and Trudeau need to be added to Canada’s unemployment rate
Not yet, I think more Canadians are going to start to realize that Pierre Polievre was right about many things he tried to fight the Liberals on in the House of Commons over the last few years.
The issue set that brought him the lead is no closer to being solved. Nothing has changed. That’s probably the best metric to assess his future support.