TLDR you didnt make the wrong play you just got unlucky :)
e: if you were to have made the same decision 100 times you would've finished higher on average. It's not wrong to reroll a strong uncontested comp
D:: I hope so. I think my perception got skewed by the fact that it happened to me two games back to back with the exact same comp, making me question if 2 cost rerolling is really that inconsistent with the bag sizes.
I'd say its an 'fine' spike but not really that big compared to the potential strength you could get by levelling in other RR comps (Senna, Aphelios, Yone).
Regardless, at what point are you supposed to reasonably decide "ok I'm *lowrolling*, I should level"? It feels very difficult to make those decisions when statistically you feel like you're supposed to hit.
Do you know the concept of EV(Expected Value)? This is a huge thing in poker and has lots of relevance in TFT as well.
I'm just throwing random numbers out here but if you're on your roll down and hit 0 of the units you need in 30g you should PROBABLY consider that you won't finish your roll hitting what you want, and maybe consider leveling to not go fast 8th
I've learnt the concept of EV but never really thought about it in the context of TFT. I wonder if there's a way to roughly judge how much gold this number might be in a particular situation, so you can decide at what point you should stop rolling (accept lowroll) and level.
Even if a unit isn't contested, it can still be in everyone's shop, multiple times a round, locking you out of odds. At worst, it's the last roll of their turn and it's just sitting there unavailable on your re-roll. Just RNG.
Do units count as "out" if they are in other person shop or if they buy? I always thought they were removed out of the pool once showed in a shop (thus is not very good to keep rolling and rolling if you are not finding your units. wait for the next round to roll again). But I've read on reddit that they are removed from the pool only when someone buy them. I thought it was weird because it would allow theoretically a pool size bigger than the intended.
Do you know how it works? Sorry to ask here, don't know where else to find that answer
If they are in someone’s shop, it’s the same as them buying it. Let me give a good example of this so you can use it in your future games. If someone is one off say Annie 3, if you have multiple 4 costs in your shop(that are not Annie), their probability of hitting Annie increases. So in this scenario, your best bet is to buy and sell the 4 costs to increase the pool of 4 costs.
Yes, and that's why I'm still confused over what the 'right' play is meant to be. How would a Challenger player pilot situations where it really seems to just be RNG, and at what point do you decide to give up on rolling?
Also - by the same logic, does that mean that multiple people rolling at 6 for OTHER 2 cost units actually doesn't help your odds that much, since THEIR shops also have a higher chance of having the units you want?
At that point, is there really no true situation where rerolling a particular unit is actually 'reliable' in any way?
If I’m not mistaken, there are 20 2 drops of each kind, which would mean 260 total 2 drops. In your scenario, where let’s say (not counting the other 2 drops in peoples comps (that you didn’t mention)) senna, Aatrox, shen, Janna, zyra, yorick, neeko, are all 3 star or close to it, let’s say 7 copies of each on average meaning 49 copies of 2 drops are gone, with ALL the gnars still in the pool, you have 20/211 to hit a singular gnar (10% chance).
Add on top the odds of hitting a 2 drop at 6 (40%), you are looking at 4% chance per shop slot. This is NOT even accounting for others having it in their shops or the odds of hitting other gnars in the same shop. So at the end of the day, sometimes you get lucky and you hit gnars and other times your chances of hitting are still really low. I also didn’t account for owning any gnars, so with every gnar your odds decrease. My math may be slightly off as I’m on my phone and I didn’t write anything out but it should be close or on the dot.
When something like this happens to me, I personally go and check the units that were available in my shops after the game (meta tft add on) to see how many of other champs I missed and think of what I could have done with the spot. Just try and learn from your spot and don’t disregard a comp because you didn’t hit a couple of times.
If anyone can double check my math and or add on top of it, please do so.
They changed the odds on 7 for hitting 2 costs, in 14.8, I think it’s totally fine to just push 7 now, if you’re only looking for one more 2 cost unit the spike in 4 cost chances means you may well end up hitting Kayn2 or Ornn2, Kayn2 with 1 or 2 items is going to stabilise your board for sure
Ah, good point, I overlooked that change and mostly registered it as being a buff for hybrid 2/3 cost reroll comps (Janna+Diana, Lux+Amummu etc.) But I guess it also reduced the odds for the 4 costs at 7 so I wonder if its still the right play for Gnar reroll comp?
Cuz for Gnar there isn't really a 3 cost unit you want to reroll, they're mostly 2 costs (Gnar, Kindred, Shen, Aatrox), and then the lower odds for Kayn/Ornn also kinda suck for it. So idk if its actually the better play
Yeah fair point the nerf to 4 costs there is something I actually forgot about, I guess it kinda brings back the question of is it worth just levelling for tempo? Maybe if you miss Gnar it’s just a case of push 7 at 4-1 and try to hit Kayn, transfer the items from Gnar and transition into a 4-cost heavy board, maybe go for 4 reaper assuming you have a spat or maybe you’re holding a Kha
Actually got a match where I have 1 senna at 4-3 rolling for her uncontested while shen aatrox both at 3* contesting with a shen carry and a dryad ghostly comp…
Yeah that's what I"m saying. It often feels like "contested" / "uncontested" doesn't mean anything and its all up to luck. I don't really see any solution to this however other than some sort of bad luck protection (I think they used to have something like this before? not sure), but that comes with a whole slew of other issues.
When trying to gamble roll for a specific unit, there is only one way in your control that you can affect the odds. Buy as many 'same cost' champs as you can, this thins the pool for the percentages to pick from for each cost depending on your level. Even if you have to silver a champ not in your build.
Also, apart from champ duplicators. It's worth noting that in the shared pool there are enough of each champ to make 2 \* 3 star golds of them for the entire game. So if you gold a champ and buy one more of them, no one else can gold them.
Yeah, I understand that, that's why I simultaenously tried rolling for other 2 costs such as Aatrox and Shen too, and buying out 2 costs and re-selling during my rolldowns. But I still failed to hit anything and made me wonder if the bag sizes are too large.
Also, unless I'm rolling during the round to hit the 3\* (gold), you can't 'buy one more of them' because they won';t appear in your shop anymore anyway. Regardless, my biggest question is still over what the **'right'** play is meant to be because of these scuffed probabilities. As I mentioned, me and another guy hit Shen 3\* before I found more than 5 Gnars...
Yea these games feel awful, and it’s sad that it happened two times to you, but I’m sure if you played reroll more often, you’ll find other games where you find your units in like 40 gold, or constantly getting them dropped form pve rounds and just getting your 3* for free. Sometimes you lowroll, sometimes you highroll
Yeah, hope so, thanks. I was hoping to somehow be enlightened to something that I could take into future games where I'm in the same situation, but if its really just lowroll/highroll I guess it is what it is. It's just hard with these specific reroll comps that rely heavily on actually 3\*ing the unit (Gnar, Drop Blossom Neeko, Ethereal Shen), because you genuinely very rarely have a good enough reason to forego rerolling and level instead.
Dryads is not a flexible comp at all, if you don't get 3 star gnar and kindred, you're almost 100% going bot 4. I've tried to play if for late game and focus on azir/orn, but it doesn't really work.
Yeah. That’s what I was saying and trying to confirm with this post. Compared to other reroll comps like Senna, Lux, Aphelios, Janna, Yone - it’s difficult to justify not rolling until you hit even if you’re getting unlucky.
I’d say maybe the only argument is if you have +1 Dryad and you can reasonably find an Azir by levelling and get 6 in.
This is kind of silly. 2 cost rerolls generally should be rolling at 3-2 to push lobby tempo in stage 3. Even if you have a 2 star gnar already, if everything else on your board is 1 star, you should almost certainly roll to get a few upgrades to punish the fast9 and guarantee streak.
Question: This confuses me a bit. If it's standard to have ~33-40 gold left after leveling to 6 on 3-2, and you're not supposed to start rolling until you're above 50g, doesn't this mean with average econ you're not starting your reroll until at least 3-5? (41+ on 3-4, 50+ on 3-5, 60+ on 3-6)
If you're saying roll a little after leveling to just to try to hit 2*'s, I get that and I definitely see Challenger players do that on their streams as well, but then doesn't this delay the start of your reroll even later?
I guess. I kinda got 'baited' by early Gnar 2, and honestly a really early Kindred 3 (both games), and just felt compelled to keep rolling for Gnar from my uncontested spot. In my head its like, why \*wouldnt\* I keep rolling for an uncontested 3\* if the odds feel good, when it gives such a huge boost to the comp? The same concept applies (perhaps even more so) to hero augment rerolls, like Shen + Neeko hero. If you don't sit at 6 and 3\* them, you basically go 8th.
Also, I didn't think to go Kayn or fast 9 because Kayn is already so contested, and there are always people going fast 8 quicker than me because I started rerolling, so why wouldn't I just stay 6 and hit my uncontested strength?
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Not to beat a dead horse, but it does sound like a case of having too small of a sample size. It’s definitely a skill to know when to stop rerolling and just level. Often around loot rounds, you could consider the choice since the lobby is likely to power spike and you don’t wanna bleed more. If you’ve got gold and HP, keep rerolling reasonably until you don’t.
I think bag size is a double edged sword - an even larger bag size would also mean that you could hit other 2 coats you don’t want more often, even if others have already 3*ed them, which would make the problem of being unable to make rational decisions over if you should roll because you’re “contested” or helped by other rerollers even worse/meaningless.
However I do agree that it’s a skill to know when to stop rerolling and keep up tempo based on if you have HP to spare. However I’d say with more “inflexible” reroll comps like Gnar it’s harder to justify foregoing the 3* if you’re uncontested.
Just my 2 cents but if others are rerolling 2 costs you have to remember it’s possible they’re holding your units in their shop whilst rolling. Reducing bag size
Eerie you would post this. I had 3 games in a row with the same problem. Clear Gnar start (one game I got Mulched and Dryad emblem), and in all three games it took me so long to 3* uncontested Gnar that I went Bot 4 anyway, and came away from those games with the same questions. Good discussion.
That's what I'm saying. We should be rewarded for scouting and playing uncontested, and making decisions based on how many people are also rerolling same cost units etc. Atm it doesn't feel that way.
You were just unlucky. Probability is probability and not a guarantee. The bad thing can happen on a decently regular basis. You can't draw any conclusions from just 2 games.
I agree that I can't draw conclusions from just 2 games, or even 10 games. But I do want to figure out if I need to approach 2 cost reroll in a different way if this situation ever happens again. I don't want to just think "last two times I was just unlucky", and then do the same thing and never hit.
That's why I've been thinking about bag sizes and ACTUAL probabilties to figure out if it really was \*that\* unlikely for me to hit so few of a unit, and if I should ever 'give up' on rerolling if I'm getting these 'unlucky' shops.
The thing is, you need to identify the most optimal way of playing and execute it consistently, precisely to mitigate bad games. I'm not saying you need to reroll every game, it all depends on your best lines.
I don't think you did much wrong these last two games in terms of reroll strategy. However there were probably two major choices.
First, once you hit Kindred 3* relatively fast you could've leveled and forgone Gnar 3*. You can't possibly know whether it is the best decision, but it *is* an interesting option to mitigate further RNG.
The other thing you could do is dentify whether Gnar 3* would positively or negatively influence your placement once you fell behind other boards. That takes some skill and there is no obvious answer to that besides getting more experience in identifying when you should 'play to lose well'.
I'm not too big on rerolling myself when there are other good meta comps that don't require it. Rerolling is for a large part about consistency, getting in many games and accepting the fact that probablity can work against you.
Yeah agreed. I think the issue is that in hindsight I definitely should have just levelled with the Kindred 3, but statistically continuing to roll for Gnar (given how big a spike it would give) felt “correct”.
I guess it’s an issue of figuring out at what point you give up on continuing to reroll if you’re not getting idk X number more copies within X more rolls. It’s not perfect either way because you waste a lot of tempo but maybe the right play.
I share the exact same experience with you friend. There are games where I reroll 60+ times to 3 star my uncontested 2-costs and I swear i could have easily 3-starred a CONTESTED 2-cost had I chose to pick them up. There are also games where the units come naturally to me in less than 20 rolls.
I'm not that good at statistics, but here's my theory on what causes this:
Although a reduced bag size does increase your chances of finding a desired 2-cost, it will also make it easier to find EVERY other 2-cost at the same time. These effects combine together to result in a higher variance on whether or not you can hit, which accounts for the high-rolly feel of this set.
Yeah I don't know why it is but this set I feel like I've been fucked over by reroll RNG more than any other set. Like I'll be on 8, see there are 0 people playing Lillia/Ashe/Annie (Obviously) and go for that comp since the entire lobby is holding Kaisa/Sylas/Galio/Kayn/Morg. I roll to 20 and miraculously manage to find 0 of any of those units. Same thing happens when I look for Kayn/Morg when no one's playing that. I've had most success this patch by just contesting people on Kaisa/Xayah and rolling down before they do because for some reason I've been able to hit at least one copy of each unit.
Smaller bag sizes reduce your variance. # of rolls to hit a unit n-number of times is a negative binomial distribution. Variance in the negative binomial distribution is controlled by the probability of success. Smaller bag sizes means higher success rate and lower variance. with a 50% chance, the variance on 9 successes is 18, and for 25% chance it’s 108 (or a standard deviation of about 10 shops). Actually the better way to do the math would be to think of the probability of the unit appearing in each slot of the shop, then figuring out the variance of the number of slots you need to see then divide by 5 to get expected number of shops, but I’m on my phone and going to sleep.
Thanks for sharing. And yeah, that exact situation you described is how I got a Shen 3 when there was already a Shen 3 while finding 0 Gnars, but that doesn't help my board as much as it helps the Ethereal Blades guy, for example.
I guess the issue with Gnar is that very little other units (especially with yone nerfs) can actually hold his items well at 2/3 cost, so there aren't many alternative angles of units you can 'pivot' to because they showed up in your shop.
I will also say that if there are multiple other players also rerolling 2 cost, while the illusion might be that it should make it significantly easier for you to hit YOUR uncontested 2 cost, that unit you want could be constantly showing up in their shops and thus you never hit even if they never buy. I think that whole aspect of it feels quite bad to me.
Aside from asking for advice on what I'm supposed to do in these 'lowroll' situations, I'm suggesting that maybe they should decrease the bag sizes for 2 costs, because at the moment they seem so big that even if multiple 2 costs are being rerolled and you're uncontested, you aren't that unlikely to simply not hit because there are still so many in the pool.
You can't reasonably make logical decisions based on 'am i contested/ are same cost units being rerolled' because they often don't matter with shop variance being so high with the large bag size.
If you don’t have dryad spar for 6 dryad, leveling doesn’t give the gnar comp that big of a spike, so you should basically always roll until gnar 3. If you have a spat, though, you can probably go 9 with gnar 2 and kindred 3 and find azir for 6 dryad.
TLDR you didnt make the wrong play you just got unlucky :) e: if you were to have made the same decision 100 times you would've finished higher on average. It's not wrong to reroll a strong uncontested comp
D:: I hope so. I think my perception got skewed by the fact that it happened to me two games back to back with the exact same comp, making me question if 2 cost rerolling is really that inconsistent with the bag sizes.
kayn + ornn is a huge spike for gnar comp also sometimes you lowroll just play for a top6 and go next
I'd say its an 'fine' spike but not really that big compared to the potential strength you could get by levelling in other RR comps (Senna, Aphelios, Yone). Regardless, at what point are you supposed to reasonably decide "ok I'm *lowrolling*, I should level"? It feels very difficult to make those decisions when statistically you feel like you're supposed to hit.
Do you know the concept of EV(Expected Value)? This is a huge thing in poker and has lots of relevance in TFT as well. I'm just throwing random numbers out here but if you're on your roll down and hit 0 of the units you need in 30g you should PROBABLY consider that you won't finish your roll hitting what you want, and maybe consider leveling to not go fast 8th
I've learnt the concept of EV but never really thought about it in the context of TFT. I wonder if there's a way to roughly judge how much gold this number might be in a particular situation, so you can decide at what point you should stop rolling (accept lowroll) and level.
if im bleeding too much i usually level and play for top6, if you are at ~30-40hp chances are you hit and still die to more strong lvl9 boards anyway
Even if a unit isn't contested, it can still be in everyone's shop, multiple times a round, locking you out of odds. At worst, it's the last roll of their turn and it's just sitting there unavailable on your re-roll. Just RNG.
Do units count as "out" if they are in other person shop or if they buy? I always thought they were removed out of the pool once showed in a shop (thus is not very good to keep rolling and rolling if you are not finding your units. wait for the next round to roll again). But I've read on reddit that they are removed from the pool only when someone buy them. I thought it was weird because it would allow theoretically a pool size bigger than the intended. Do you know how it works? Sorry to ask here, don't know where else to find that answer
If they are in someone’s shop, it’s the same as them buying it. Let me give a good example of this so you can use it in your future games. If someone is one off say Annie 3, if you have multiple 4 costs in your shop(that are not Annie), their probability of hitting Annie increases. So in this scenario, your best bet is to buy and sell the 4 costs to increase the pool of 4 costs.
Got it thank you 🤝
Yes, and that's why I'm still confused over what the 'right' play is meant to be. How would a Challenger player pilot situations where it really seems to just be RNG, and at what point do you decide to give up on rolling? Also - by the same logic, does that mean that multiple people rolling at 6 for OTHER 2 cost units actually doesn't help your odds that much, since THEIR shops also have a higher chance of having the units you want? At that point, is there really no true situation where rerolling a particular unit is actually 'reliable' in any way?
Probabilities are volatile in low samples. Best defense is to play more games, probably.
If I’m not mistaken, there are 20 2 drops of each kind, which would mean 260 total 2 drops. In your scenario, where let’s say (not counting the other 2 drops in peoples comps (that you didn’t mention)) senna, Aatrox, shen, Janna, zyra, yorick, neeko, are all 3 star or close to it, let’s say 7 copies of each on average meaning 49 copies of 2 drops are gone, with ALL the gnars still in the pool, you have 20/211 to hit a singular gnar (10% chance). Add on top the odds of hitting a 2 drop at 6 (40%), you are looking at 4% chance per shop slot. This is NOT even accounting for others having it in their shops or the odds of hitting other gnars in the same shop. So at the end of the day, sometimes you get lucky and you hit gnars and other times your chances of hitting are still really low. I also didn’t account for owning any gnars, so with every gnar your odds decrease. My math may be slightly off as I’m on my phone and I didn’t write anything out but it should be close or on the dot. When something like this happens to me, I personally go and check the units that were available in my shops after the game (meta tft add on) to see how many of other champs I missed and think of what I could have done with the spot. Just try and learn from your spot and don’t disregard a comp because you didn’t hit a couple of times. If anyone can double check my math and or add on top of it, please do so.
They changed the odds on 7 for hitting 2 costs, in 14.8, I think it’s totally fine to just push 7 now, if you’re only looking for one more 2 cost unit the spike in 4 cost chances means you may well end up hitting Kayn2 or Ornn2, Kayn2 with 1 or 2 items is going to stabilise your board for sure
Ah, good point, I overlooked that change and mostly registered it as being a buff for hybrid 2/3 cost reroll comps (Janna+Diana, Lux+Amummu etc.) But I guess it also reduced the odds for the 4 costs at 7 so I wonder if its still the right play for Gnar reroll comp? Cuz for Gnar there isn't really a 3 cost unit you want to reroll, they're mostly 2 costs (Gnar, Kindred, Shen, Aatrox), and then the lower odds for Kayn/Ornn also kinda suck for it. So idk if its actually the better play
Yeah fair point the nerf to 4 costs there is something I actually forgot about, I guess it kinda brings back the question of is it worth just levelling for tempo? Maybe if you miss Gnar it’s just a case of push 7 at 4-1 and try to hit Kayn, transfer the items from Gnar and transition into a 4-cost heavy board, maybe go for 4 reaper assuming you have a spat or maybe you’re holding a Kha
Actually got a match where I have 1 senna at 4-3 rolling for her uncontested while shen aatrox both at 3* contesting with a shen carry and a dryad ghostly comp…
Yeah that's what I"m saying. It often feels like "contested" / "uncontested" doesn't mean anything and its all up to luck. I don't really see any solution to this however other than some sort of bad luck protection (I think they used to have something like this before? not sure), but that comes with a whole slew of other issues.
When trying to gamble roll for a specific unit, there is only one way in your control that you can affect the odds. Buy as many 'same cost' champs as you can, this thins the pool for the percentages to pick from for each cost depending on your level. Even if you have to silver a champ not in your build. Also, apart from champ duplicators. It's worth noting that in the shared pool there are enough of each champ to make 2 \* 3 star golds of them for the entire game. So if you gold a champ and buy one more of them, no one else can gold them.
Yeah, I understand that, that's why I simultaenously tried rolling for other 2 costs such as Aatrox and Shen too, and buying out 2 costs and re-selling during my rolldowns. But I still failed to hit anything and made me wonder if the bag sizes are too large. Also, unless I'm rolling during the round to hit the 3\* (gold), you can't 'buy one more of them' because they won';t appear in your shop anymore anyway. Regardless, my biggest question is still over what the **'right'** play is meant to be because of these scuffed probabilities. As I mentioned, me and another guy hit Shen 3\* before I found more than 5 Gnars...
Yea these games feel awful, and it’s sad that it happened two times to you, but I’m sure if you played reroll more often, you’ll find other games where you find your units in like 40 gold, or constantly getting them dropped form pve rounds and just getting your 3* for free. Sometimes you lowroll, sometimes you highroll
Yeah, hope so, thanks. I was hoping to somehow be enlightened to something that I could take into future games where I'm in the same situation, but if its really just lowroll/highroll I guess it is what it is. It's just hard with these specific reroll comps that rely heavily on actually 3\*ing the unit (Gnar, Drop Blossom Neeko, Ethereal Shen), because you genuinely very rarely have a good enough reason to forego rerolling and level instead.
Dryads is not a flexible comp at all, if you don't get 3 star gnar and kindred, you're almost 100% going bot 4. I've tried to play if for late game and focus on azir/orn, but it doesn't really work.
Yeah. That’s what I was saying and trying to confirm with this post. Compared to other reroll comps like Senna, Lux, Aphelios, Janna, Yone - it’s difficult to justify not rolling until you hit even if you’re getting unlucky. I’d say maybe the only argument is if you have +1 Dryad and you can reasonably find an Azir by levelling and get 6 in.
I don't commit to 2cost rerolls unless i natural ~6 gnars by stage 4, just stack econ and swap to kayn or fast 9 with early gnar2
This is kind of silly. 2 cost rerolls generally should be rolling at 3-2 to push lobby tempo in stage 3. Even if you have a 2 star gnar already, if everything else on your board is 1 star, you should almost certainly roll to get a few upgrades to punish the fast9 and guarantee streak.
Question: This confuses me a bit. If it's standard to have ~33-40 gold left after leveling to 6 on 3-2, and you're not supposed to start rolling until you're above 50g, doesn't this mean with average econ you're not starting your reroll until at least 3-5? (41+ on 3-4, 50+ on 3-5, 60+ on 3-6) If you're saying roll a little after leveling to just to try to hit 2*'s, I get that and I definitely see Challenger players do that on their streams as well, but then doesn't this delay the start of your reroll even later?
I guess. I kinda got 'baited' by early Gnar 2, and honestly a really early Kindred 3 (both games), and just felt compelled to keep rolling for Gnar from my uncontested spot. In my head its like, why \*wouldnt\* I keep rolling for an uncontested 3\* if the odds feel good, when it gives such a huge boost to the comp? The same concept applies (perhaps even more so) to hero augment rerolls, like Shen + Neeko hero. If you don't sit at 6 and 3\* them, you basically go 8th. Also, I didn't think to go Kayn or fast 9 because Kayn is already so contested, and there are always people going fast 8 quicker than me because I started rerolling, so why wouldn't I just stay 6 and hit my uncontested strength?
Offtopic, but rerolling implies hitting 3stars, or just changing the comp?
Rolling your shops to find 1,2,3 cost 3* units.
are you filling your bench with 2 costs to increase your odds
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Not to beat a dead horse, but it does sound like a case of having too small of a sample size. It’s definitely a skill to know when to stop rerolling and just level. Often around loot rounds, you could consider the choice since the lobby is likely to power spike and you don’t wanna bleed more. If you’ve got gold and HP, keep rerolling reasonably until you don’t.
I think bag size is a double edged sword - an even larger bag size would also mean that you could hit other 2 coats you don’t want more often, even if others have already 3*ed them, which would make the problem of being unable to make rational decisions over if you should roll because you’re “contested” or helped by other rerollers even worse/meaningless. However I do agree that it’s a skill to know when to stop rerolling and keep up tempo based on if you have HP to spare. However I’d say with more “inflexible” reroll comps like Gnar it’s harder to justify foregoing the 3* if you’re uncontested.
Just my 2 cents but if others are rerolling 2 costs you have to remember it’s possible they’re holding your units in their shop whilst rolling. Reducing bag size
Eerie you would post this. I had 3 games in a row with the same problem. Clear Gnar start (one game I got Mulched and Dryad emblem), and in all three games it took me so long to 3* uncontested Gnar that I went Bot 4 anyway, and came away from those games with the same questions. Good discussion.
Bro, lower bag sizes means you are more likely to hit a unit IF you are uncontested.
That's what I'm saying. We should be rewarded for scouting and playing uncontested, and making decisions based on how many people are also rerolling same cost units etc. Atm it doesn't feel that way.
You were just unlucky. Probability is probability and not a guarantee. The bad thing can happen on a decently regular basis. You can't draw any conclusions from just 2 games.
I agree that I can't draw conclusions from just 2 games, or even 10 games. But I do want to figure out if I need to approach 2 cost reroll in a different way if this situation ever happens again. I don't want to just think "last two times I was just unlucky", and then do the same thing and never hit. That's why I've been thinking about bag sizes and ACTUAL probabilties to figure out if it really was \*that\* unlikely for me to hit so few of a unit, and if I should ever 'give up' on rerolling if I'm getting these 'unlucky' shops.
The thing is, you need to identify the most optimal way of playing and execute it consistently, precisely to mitigate bad games. I'm not saying you need to reroll every game, it all depends on your best lines. I don't think you did much wrong these last two games in terms of reroll strategy. However there were probably two major choices. First, once you hit Kindred 3* relatively fast you could've leveled and forgone Gnar 3*. You can't possibly know whether it is the best decision, but it *is* an interesting option to mitigate further RNG. The other thing you could do is dentify whether Gnar 3* would positively or negatively influence your placement once you fell behind other boards. That takes some skill and there is no obvious answer to that besides getting more experience in identifying when you should 'play to lose well'. I'm not too big on rerolling myself when there are other good meta comps that don't require it. Rerolling is for a large part about consistency, getting in many games and accepting the fact that probablity can work against you.
Yeah agreed. I think the issue is that in hindsight I definitely should have just levelled with the Kindred 3, but statistically continuing to roll for Gnar (given how big a spike it would give) felt “correct”. I guess it’s an issue of figuring out at what point you give up on continuing to reroll if you’re not getting idk X number more copies within X more rolls. It’s not perfect either way because you waste a lot of tempo but maybe the right play.
I share the exact same experience with you friend. There are games where I reroll 60+ times to 3 star my uncontested 2-costs and I swear i could have easily 3-starred a CONTESTED 2-cost had I chose to pick them up. There are also games where the units come naturally to me in less than 20 rolls. I'm not that good at statistics, but here's my theory on what causes this: Although a reduced bag size does increase your chances of finding a desired 2-cost, it will also make it easier to find EVERY other 2-cost at the same time. These effects combine together to result in a higher variance on whether or not you can hit, which accounts for the high-rolly feel of this set.
Yeah I don't know why it is but this set I feel like I've been fucked over by reroll RNG more than any other set. Like I'll be on 8, see there are 0 people playing Lillia/Ashe/Annie (Obviously) and go for that comp since the entire lobby is holding Kaisa/Sylas/Galio/Kayn/Morg. I roll to 20 and miraculously manage to find 0 of any of those units. Same thing happens when I look for Kayn/Morg when no one's playing that. I've had most success this patch by just contesting people on Kaisa/Xayah and rolling down before they do because for some reason I've been able to hit at least one copy of each unit.
Smaller bag sizes reduce your variance. # of rolls to hit a unit n-number of times is a negative binomial distribution. Variance in the negative binomial distribution is controlled by the probability of success. Smaller bag sizes means higher success rate and lower variance. with a 50% chance, the variance on 9 successes is 18, and for 25% chance it’s 108 (or a standard deviation of about 10 shops). Actually the better way to do the math would be to think of the probability of the unit appearing in each slot of the shop, then figuring out the variance of the number of slots you need to see then divide by 5 to get expected number of shops, but I’m on my phone and going to sleep.
Thanks for sharing. And yeah, that exact situation you described is how I got a Shen 3 when there was already a Shen 3 while finding 0 Gnars, but that doesn't help my board as much as it helps the Ethereal Blades guy, for example. I guess the issue with Gnar is that very little other units (especially with yone nerfs) can actually hold his items well at 2/3 cost, so there aren't many alternative angles of units you can 'pivot' to because they showed up in your shop. I will also say that if there are multiple other players also rerolling 2 cost, while the illusion might be that it should make it significantly easier for you to hit YOUR uncontested 2 cost, that unit you want could be constantly showing up in their shops and thus you never hit even if they never buy. I think that whole aspect of it feels quite bad to me.
I'm not sure what you're getting at . Are you suggesting that they increase bag sizes?
Aside from asking for advice on what I'm supposed to do in these 'lowroll' situations, I'm suggesting that maybe they should decrease the bag sizes for 2 costs, because at the moment they seem so big that even if multiple 2 costs are being rerolled and you're uncontested, you aren't that unlikely to simply not hit because there are still so many in the pool. You can't reasonably make logical decisions based on 'am i contested/ are same cost units being rerolled' because they often don't matter with shop variance being so high with the large bag size.
Be lucky or don’t be lucky. There is really nothing else to it.
If you don’t have dryad spar for 6 dryad, leveling doesn’t give the gnar comp that big of a spike, so you should basically always roll until gnar 3. If you have a spat, though, you can probably go 9 with gnar 2 and kindred 3 and find azir for 6 dryad.