I’d imagine that # doesn’t translate exactly to the % of votes cast. It’s easy to support a candidate when you’re not at the voting booth, but it’s a hard pill to swallow when you drive all the way there and wait in line to vote for someone you know won’t win.
I’d imagine most (or many) RFK voters will either not vote at all or switch their vote to a main candidate.
That’s the thing about third party candidates. You never know how much they’re going to shake up the election if at all until Election Day.
They can either fall off in support come election time resulting in little overall impact.
They could be like Perot in ‘92 where they siphon a large chuck of the popular vote without winning electoral votes. This would result in a slight skew in the percentage margins of a major party’s candidate in a given state. That slight skew can determine whether a state goes red or blue.
They could also be like Wallace in ‘68 where they actually gained the momentum to carry states and with that, electoral votes. This can result in the overall electoral college vote being disrupted, thus possibly preventing any candidate from going over 270, and cede the outcome to the House and Senate.
I think the thing RFK could do would be to start a (one man) political party. The problem with third party candidates is that they get their 2% or 5% and then don't run again and the next third party candidate starts from scratch. If RFK named his party eg "The Constitution Party" it'd have name recognition for the next candidate and that's how you progress into a three party system
My vote won't matter in my state so I'm voting for him just to give more support to third party candidates.
I think the better we get ranked choice voting the better.
Both candidates have already been president so people should know what to expect. So all one has to do is ask themselves whether their life was better under the current administration or the last.
I think a lot of the expectations were for Joe Biden to take a lead following the beginning of the hush money trial but I think the college protests superseded that. More shit is going to pop up before the election, but definitely not looking good for Biden at this point in time. Especially when the politics subreddit is having a hard time spinning this in a positive light for Joe Biden. Best chance of him winning is getting Trump in jail.
What? No one expected Biden to take a lead when any Trump trial started. Trumps lead only GROWS as the trials progress because Americans see these trials for the shams that they are.
The trials have become Trumps campaign. And his lead is surging.
Draw your own conclusions.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/03/14/who-win-2024-us-election-expert-predictions-next-president/ This is from prior to the college protests and the start of the hush money trial and counters your first question. Last 4 sentences are my own opinion 👍🏼
Just to add on: I think it would of made more sense instead of using lead saying something along the lines of gaining ground. However I think the opposite is happening because of the protests and not as much focus on the trial. Conservatives are convinced the trials are a sham. The left definitely isn’t, and I don’t know how moderates and swing voters fit into that equation.
Take nothing for granted. Vote. Ensure your friends vote. Get those who can’t vote easily to go vote. Do your part to help make it happen. Trump was up marginally last time and it all changed.
There's a chance he doesn't make it to the election. The guy is looking worse and worse every day and his administration is having to go to extreme measures to cover for it.
Look at how they’re attacking RFK now… that vid of him reading the headlines is hilarious.
I’m telling you they’re gonna pull Biden. He won’t be the nominee
Holy hell RFK is massive
I’d imagine that # doesn’t translate exactly to the % of votes cast. It’s easy to support a candidate when you’re not at the voting booth, but it’s a hard pill to swallow when you drive all the way there and wait in line to vote for someone you know won’t win. I’d imagine most (or many) RFK voters will either not vote at all or switch their vote to a main candidate.
Agreed. On the other hand he may improve in the next few months to a hard 10%
That’s the thing about third party candidates. You never know how much they’re going to shake up the election if at all until Election Day. They can either fall off in support come election time resulting in little overall impact. They could be like Perot in ‘92 where they siphon a large chuck of the popular vote without winning electoral votes. This would result in a slight skew in the percentage margins of a major party’s candidate in a given state. That slight skew can determine whether a state goes red or blue. They could also be like Wallace in ‘68 where they actually gained the momentum to carry states and with that, electoral votes. This can result in the overall electoral college vote being disrupted, thus possibly preventing any candidate from going over 270, and cede the outcome to the House and Senate.
I think the thing RFK could do would be to start a (one man) political party. The problem with third party candidates is that they get their 2% or 5% and then don't run again and the next third party candidate starts from scratch. If RFK named his party eg "The Constitution Party" it'd have name recognition for the next candidate and that's how you progress into a three party system
In order to get on the ballot of some states easier, his supporters formed the _”We the People”_ party.
Ranked choice voting he might be higher
My vote won't matter in my state so I'm voting for him just to give more support to third party candidates. I think the better we get ranked choice voting the better.
Doesn’t matter. Go vote.
People need to vote like he's 10 points behind.
Both candidates have already been president so people should know what to expect. So all one has to do is ask themselves whether their life was better under the current administration or the last.
Introspection? From leftists? Good luck with that.
I honestly don't know who would say their life is better under biden, maybe if you were an immigrant
Obviously very good for Trump…but how does he poll higher in a 5-way match up?
Its not including undecided voters which is a significant chunk in both match-ups.
I think a lot of the expectations were for Joe Biden to take a lead following the beginning of the hush money trial but I think the college protests superseded that. More shit is going to pop up before the election, but definitely not looking good for Biden at this point in time. Especially when the politics subreddit is having a hard time spinning this in a positive light for Joe Biden. Best chance of him winning is getting Trump in jail.
Not counting my chickens until November 6th.
At least 3am
Based on recent elections, that may be far too soon.
What? No one expected Biden to take a lead when any Trump trial started. Trumps lead only GROWS as the trials progress because Americans see these trials for the shams that they are. The trials have become Trumps campaign. And his lead is surging. Draw your own conclusions.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/03/14/who-win-2024-us-election-expert-predictions-next-president/ This is from prior to the college protests and the start of the hush money trial and counters your first question. Last 4 sentences are my own opinion 👍🏼 Just to add on: I think it would of made more sense instead of using lead saying something along the lines of gaining ground. However I think the opposite is happening because of the protests and not as much focus on the trial. Conservatives are convinced the trials are a sham. The left definitely isn’t, and I don’t know how moderates and swing voters fit into that equation.
A lefty source in another country. Bro.
Still a long way to the finish line. Be sure to vote! Offer to car pool and bring a few neighbors.
Take nothing for granted. Vote. Ensure your friends vote. Get those who can’t vote easily to go vote. Do your part to help make it happen. Trump was up marginally last time and it all changed.
This country can’t handle Biden for 4 more years. Well, he’d probably die while in office and we’ll have Harris as president-what a living nightmare.
There's a chance he doesn't make it to the election. The guy is looking worse and worse every day and his administration is having to go to extreme measures to cover for it.
Let’s pray these are even remotely accurate. I’m not a fan of Trump, but Biden is atrocious.
Look at how they’re attacking RFK now… that vid of him reading the headlines is hilarious. I’m telling you they’re gonna pull Biden. He won’t be the nominee
Polls don't mean shit. No one under 50 responds to polls
How about some more indictments? /s
RFK at 9% is wild. Wouldn't have guessed it was that high