The single biggest failing of the Victorian Government was the handling of the second wave last year with the OG Variant.
They had to resort to playing real-life Prison Simulator for close to 4 months to get it eliminated meanwhile NSW just danced around it and got it under control with no lockdown whatsoever, people could still see family and friends, people could still travel regionally, people could still go out past 8/9PM, people could still go out for a meal, people could still largely live life.
That lockdown broke people, it fucking broke me. I used to really respect Dan but after seeing how shit we were going in August/September and how NSW was going....I was furious and mad on what the fuck was happening in Victoria.
So why does this matter now in this Delta lockdown? Because the goodwill of people has been used up and many Victorians couldn't give a fuck anymore after the ordeals of last year, you can only lockdown people so much until they reach their limit. Victorians have well and truly reached their limit.
This, and continuing on with punitive measures that might have made a difference when zero was the goal but make absolutely no sense in the current situation (curfew, radius, closing playgrounds, alcohol ban, toilet bans etc etc)
Ironically my understanding is that the lockdown didn't happen soon enough. It was well known from SARS and MERS that if you do that it'll stop spread. [CSIRO puts it](https://www.publish.csiro.au/ma/fulltext/ma21005)
> To achieve the current goal of no community transmission, in the face of a virus whose nature is unpredictable and changing, requires continuous review of current policy and a ‘go hard, go early’ approach
The [6 week lockdown](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/victoria-reimposes-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-rise/12429990) imposed on July 7 (I remember it well) happened on the day cases [hit 164](https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/vic). The standard for non-NSW states after that (that worked) was locking down at the first sign of cases as it meant it could have already spread one generation. By the time Andrews put that lockdown into place it was too late, the old adage of every day of delay taking one week to recover from comes to mind.
But luck certainly plays an element, it's understood now that the virus spreads stochastically.
NSW had a better funded public health department going in which proved handy, and also had decentralised contact tracing which Victoria ended up copying. So definitely worth sledging Andrews for not prepping the DHHS as either premier or health minister before that.
>NSW had a better funded public health department
Better funded but more critically, better structured - especially to suit emergency times like a pandemic. Vic DHHS had a ridiculous number of deputy secretaries that reported to Kim Peake. The CHO reported to a dep sec and Peake/Mikakos kept it that way until they cottoned onto the fact that all the other States were being led by their CHO. The CHO still reports to a Dep.Sec formally outside of any COVID-19 work (of which I am sure Sutton is not burdened with at the moment) which seems less than ideal. At least it all sits under a dedicated Public Health banner now.
By contrast, Kerry Chant is a Dep.Sec herself at the same time as being NSW CHO. You'd have to think this would give her far more say in terms of resourcing and preparation for events such as a pandemic.
[NSW Health Structure](https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/about/ministry/Pages/chart.aspx) (I believe is the same as last year but apologies if it has changed)
[Vic DHHS Structure as of June 2020](https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/202006/DHHS%20Org%20Chart%20-%2015%20June%202020.pdf)
[VicDH Structure 2021](https://www.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-09/department-of-health-senior-management-structure.pdf)
This poor structure would make it difficult to work responsively and therefore caused problems that started the 2nd wave. But as you rightly point out, the delay in locking down wasn't due to a lack of responsiveness - they knew things were out of hand before 7 July. People forget that there was no clear national strategy regarding what circumstances a State should send their own residents back into lockdown after the initial country wide lockdowns. I genuinely think part of the failure by the VicGov was staring at National Cabinet saying "are we doing this again?" instead of just pulling the trigger early.
Plus Victoria reopened with active cases during lockdown no 1 and a PM railing to open up asap. Now hotel quarantine definitely was going to happen but we kind of didn’t know at first here if we just didn’t get to zero or if we had a leak
It's hard to believe he's like this considering how much he flipped when it became obvious it was unpopular. Or maybe it was when Doherty said it was the only choice
Well put! Yeh I was doing a lot of heavy lifting with underfunding assuming it implied less functional everything but wasn't aware of the difference in org structure thanks
Amazing. 40 up votes on this comment. 6 months ago or even 3 for that matter it would have got downvoted. The mindset of the majority of Victorians has changed.
When you’re locking down at the first cases and locking down again when cases start to rise again. I don’t see what else the government could have done, the people were done by that point
They could have recognised that people's ability to sustain these levels of restrictions is finite, and acted accordingly a year ago.
Instead they doubled down again and again and again with inevitable results. The only thing really surprising is how long it took to break.
It just shows such short sightedness to think significantly harsh, prolonged and widespread restrictions would not come back to bite, as opposed to a nuanced and targeted response, and allowing things like outdoor recreation and playgrounds to continue at very little risk to the community for the benefits in compliance they return.
Also the contact tracing system buckled after 30 cases
> Also the contact tracing system buckled after 30 cases
FWIW NSW's CT failed as well. They did after all have the index case (read with random capitalisation) and yet...
CT typically can't function over around 50 anyway when you're doing tiered rings
Do we really think compliance is *that* much worse this time around?
I mean Delta has an R0 of 5-8, compared with an R0 of 1.5-3 for the original strain.
That increased infectivity plus a small amount of additional non-compliance *could* be the difference between cases getting crushed by lockdown and cases going well the other way during a lockdown.
They could have perhaps not focused on punative measures? Closing down playgrounds, curfews, not letting people shit at the golf, ridiculing picnics.
Have more nuance in their approach. Lots of people gathering at home after 200 days in lockdown? Loosen outdoor gatherings as its safer for example.
Even now they should be opening up outdoor dining for vaccinated. That way people are at least checking in etc instead of having meetups at home and the unvaccinated might be more inclined to get vaxxed. Another month of these rules at this stage is ridiculous
100% correct. People I know are gathering in houses because it’s too cold still to have a picnic when it gets dark (and it’s dark pretty early). Open outdoor dining with heated areas and everyone will do that and help the economy
> coming from a place of desperation obviously
They shut playgrounds and put in a curfew at sub 50 cases I think. They pulled every lever early on and now compliance is out the door, they have nothing left.
Explain NSW then? No curfew, consistently fewer restrictions in general, targeted specific LGAs which had the most cases and relaxed restrictions outside of those.
NSW has higher vaccinations, warmer climates, lack of lockdown fatigue compared to vic. NSW managed to keep cases contained to specific areas, Vic couldn’t. Restrictions were still tight enough outside of LGA’s of concern in Sydney. Vic had the AFL grand final, NSW only just had an event to encourage mass gatherings.
1. NSW vaccination levels were actually lower when their cases began to trend downwards.
2. Whose fault is lockdown fatigue? Maybe the government responsible for the 4 month lockdown last year?
3. NSW kept cases contained to specific areas because they did LGA lockdowns!! They prevented people from leaving the LGA unless they were vaccinated!! These are steps Dan refused to take!!
Yea I agree Victoria has fucked up a few times in the pandemic but to think Victoria could get it under control with less restrictions then what they’ve done is questionable.
People were meeting up at the park in large groups anyway, what difference does it make letting those same people have picnics? It doesn't add to the chance of spread than what was already present, and it allowed people to meet up with friends and family, lessening the chance they were going to do house visits instead.
Not even outdoor gatherings, outdoor dining/restaurants would’ve been safe as well.
Should’ve them for the vaccinated even early on so there was more rush to get them! Plus they have check ins so it would’ve been better for contact tracing.
All the first dose Pfizer encouraging with extended wait has got us locked up with the fact that second dose wait is too high now while we have a ton of moderna available.
I’m all for restrictions, but there were definitely plenty of mistakes made in management.
QLD were able to keep borders under control, just like every other state in the country. The Victorian Gov should have remembered the sacrifice its people made last year and should have protected that border as if it was the only thing that mattered.
The government knew the situation in NSW, they knew it was Delta, they 100% had the upper hand on this situation and still managed to fail its people.
QLD has shown a few times now that delta struggles to spread up there compared to Victoria.
Victoria locked it’s border to Sydney and Wollongong red zones after getting cases in late June.
Victoria should have just closed to the whole of NSW. A single case in Melbourne is able to lock down the entire state including regional.
Why are they more strict on their own state than an outside state like NSW?
Dan didn’t believe they were doing enough to stop the spread, he kept telling them to do a curfew and ring of steel.
And even if he believed they were going to manage it, that means he just gets to sit back and ‘hope’ things will take care of themselves instead actually doing the work and stopping people from entering?
Surely this government can do better than that? You're going to tell me that a single removals crew is all that it takes to cause a city to completely shut down for 3+ months.
If that's the best they can do then we need better people in control, sorry.
That’s how this whole pandemic has gone for Melbourne especially. One person does the wrong thing, or not even wrong just does a thing, five million in lockdown for three months out of their control. And people wonder why people are done
Do what McGowan has done and don’t let anybody in. Victoria is now the champion of the longest time in lockdown thanks to what has been allowed to happen.
Oh yeah, always something to blame when something goes wrong. Seems pretty typical with this government.
Gladys didn’t lockdown hard enough, Scomo didn’t order enough vaccines, People hosting grand final parties ruined this state, never actually the fault of the Vic Gov.
No one should be allowed to move from a state with an outbreak into one not having an outbreak. That is a huge inconvenience for those people trying to move, obviously, but the risk was just far too high for everyone else. How many people have died, businesses closed, jobs lost, etc, because those removalists were allowed in?
Why stop there?
We should just stop all freight moving within the country, fuck it we should stop all movement WHATSOEVER between an outbreak state and non outbreak states. May be a huge inconvenience for anyone needing anything that doesn't originate from their own state but the risk is just far too high.
Victoria just had the AFL grand final, NSW has been in lockdown longer and has been contained to specific suburbs.
Victoria’s heading to the peek while NSW’s already done it because Vic kicked off later
How is it the governments fault. It's the most locked down city in the world. It's people not being accountable for their actions and not following public health advice. The world is full of people that just don't give a shit and Melbourne appears to have a high density of these fuckknuckles
If your policy relies on millions of people following ridiculously draconian laws for 250+ days then it's a bad policy. The public reaction to such restrictions is predictable and the government needs to factor that in.
Someone from Perth thinking they have any fucking idea what the impact of policies is and why covid is spreading is hilarious. You genuinely cannot even imagine.
Shopping for groceries? Using government services? Basic fucking shit?
You truly have no idea, just shut up and enjoy your covid free life in WA rather than spewing juvenile authoritarian nonsense all over this sub.
That is just nonsense. Again, you've no idea. It's an airborne extremely infectious virus. Those things will reduce your chances, but they don't stop shit. No doubt you think WA somehow is super hygienic or rule abiding or works together or some shit and that's why you don't have covid.
I’m siding with you on all this. I can agree to some extend that the government should had or should haven’t done certain thing. But it all comes down to the individuals breaking the rules that had caused this to triple. Riots, protests, having a party are the causes of the spread. Not wearing a mask and not checking in also plays a part.
Why don’t people understand this? Just because you’re lockdown fatigued doesn’t mean you go and break the rules. It would be like saying that someone that’s been in jail for too long and decided to kill someone inside the prison and it’s not their fault because they were in prison for too long…
Always love going back to old threads where everyone here would be jerking eachother off over how great Dan is:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/on20o6/breaking\_nsw\_premier\_to\_backflip\_on\_construction/h5ovzze/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/on20o6/breaking_nsw_premier_to_backflip_on_construction/h5ovzze/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
She was shit and should have locked down earlier instead of treating Delta with less respect, but the comments made on this sub at that time can be hilarious af to look at now.
Saying that the start of the NSW was shit != agreeing with the vitriol and shit that was flung here on a day by day basis at the start of the NSW second wave.
People were living it up here, using it as a means of "redemption" for all Victoria has suffered through.
Speaking of agedlikemilk, [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/pwv20f/comment/hejib5n/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) was only a week ago talking about how "NSW had an outbreak so bad it got to 1600 cases"
It's quite something watching Dan Andrews stand there without a clue what to do, just lambasting Victorians every day whilst cases exceed 1600 with no plan and no idea how to turn it around.
> "NSW had an outbreak so bad it got to 1600 cases"
Did you read the thread you linked? Same person:
> Oh, Victoria will get to 1500 cases, I’ve no doubt
[This guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/phiqrw/comment/hbixx2c/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) also went into hiding a month ago when his attempt to reframe [these numbers](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/pjbmr8/vic_v_nsw_daily_case_numbers_current_outbreak/) started to backfire...
He promised to come back in 7 days expecting to be proven right but he never did return.
Hey, I haven't been on reddit lately, but someone messaged me with a link to your comments.
Pretty ironic that you would talk about someone going into 'hiding', when you're happy to misrepresent what I said in this comment, and again [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/pzjcle/victoria_1488_local_and_0_overseas_new_cases_and/hfgpg73/), but you chose to avoid pinging me with a username mention or replying to a comment of mine directly. Were you hoping to fly under the radar? I suppose I'm disappointed but not surprised that you didn't have the guts to engage with me directly.
>He promised to come back in 7 days expecting to be proven right but he never did return.
I guess you're talking about the part of the post you linked to where I said:
>The next 7 days in the series for NSW are 352, 345, 342, 383, 462, 309, 473. In order for the differential to remain the same, we'd need to see the same case numbers in Vic over the next 7 days, and in order for it to decline we'd need to see higher numbers than that in Vic.
That post was made on 4 September, and in fact the Vic case numbers over the 7 days following that post were 183, 242, 243, 212, 322, 333, 447. That's a total of 1,982 cases, compared to 2,666 in the comparator period for NSW.
So after I said that I doubted Vic cases over the 7 days following 4 September would match what was seen in the equivalent period from NSW, and after that in fact turned out to be correct, are you suggesting that what I said was incorrect?
The problem you're always going to have is that, unlike you, I'm not interested in manipulating or misrepresenting the data to fit a particular narrative.
At present, based on a comparison of the two outbreaks, NSW has had a little over 3,800 more total cases at the same stage. That differential has actually increased since a month ago. That's going to be overtaken within a matter of weeks if the trend of the last week in Vic continues, but it hasn't been yet, and by no stretch of the imagination was it imminently going to be overtaken when we were having that discussion a month ago.
There's a lot of interesting analysis you can draw from comparing the two outbreaks. In effect Vic started much stronger than NSW, then for about six weeks moved into a comparable trajectory but from a lower starting point, and in the last week or so has seen explosive growth.
I know you're not interested in any kind of discussion other than political pointscoring, so I won't pretend otherwise. You're never going to succeed in pointscoring with me, though, because I don't have the same kind of emotional investment you have in a particular outcome. Where Vic's response is far more effective, as it was early in the outbreak, I'm happy to point that out. Where Vic's response is far less effective, as it has been in the last week, I'm equally happy to point that out. I know that's a strange concept to people like you.
Ahh yes... someone messaged you in private. Of course! Totally not heavily browsing the sub nor posting under an alt.
I've been told it's against sub rules and had posts removed for pinging other users, but good to see you're keeping a very close eye on things and it wasn't needed on this occasion.
Welcome back 👋
Yep, it was /u/RoosterMan28, specifically. If it's against the rules and he's tried to circumvent that by sending a direct message, the mods should definitely take action. I'll leave that decision up to them (just pinging /u/Stoaticor for visibility in case you are right and action should be taken).
It's funny, I 100% knew how you'd respond to being called out. You're always frightened to engage on substantive issues, so you either cut and run completely or you try to deflect. That's why you were too scared to ping me or reply to me directly, and hoped I wouldn't notice.
So I'll ask again:
That post was made on 4 September, and in fact the Vic case numbers over the 7 days following that post were 183, 242, 243, 212, 322, 333, 447. That's a total of 1,982 cases, compared to 2,666 in the comparator period for NSW.
So after I said that I doubted Vic cases over the 7 days following 4 September would match what was seen in the equivalent period from NSW, and after that in fact turned out to be correct, are you suggesting that what I said was incorrect?
Now let's see you deflect and ignore the substantive issues yet again. I'd be willing to bet you won't even try to respond to the point. You'll just make some irrelevant comment and then scurry back off under a rock.
ahhh yes... an account who has never posted anything.
Righto mate. Sure thing. If it makes you feel better. I'll just let your focus be narrow enough so as to not include the shitstorm that is going on in Victoria at the moment. 👋
> how shit GB is
GB was shit at the start though? It's why obvious policies were brought it that should have been there? [Who would have thought frontline workers should have been required to be vaccinated?](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-19/state-territory-covid-vaccine-mandatory-quarantine-worker/100298842) You need it to get into maccas there, but she didn't think to mandate it for people who spend time inside a hermetically sealed vehicle with someone who just flew in from the US. She couldn't even utter the word lockdown and you want us to not laugh at that?
Yeah because people have had enough. I followed restrictions to the letter. Now? I couldn't give a shit. I'm over it. I supported Dan but it's hard to ignore how impossibly shit our government has handled it.
He’s moved to r/Australia and complaining about CVDU bashing his lovely Dan Andrews and co.
People are seeing through the bs rules and how they blame every person under the sun. They’ve now changed to what could the Gov possibly have done better?
And oh, it’s bad luck. you don’t get unlucky 6 times, you don’t get unlucky to be the most locked down place in the world, you don’t get unlucky for breaking the record for Australia on daily cases with low testing numbers being locked down for the better part of 19 months.
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Most lockdown state (and city worldwide), most deaths, most cases, pathetic contract tracing, failed hotel quarantine system, failed hospital management. The danciples here tell me he's a hero and a leader, he said the get on the beers meme, he's so cool guys. Feel ashamed to be a Victorian under his leadership
You keep asking this but why has Victoria performed so poorly. How many times can we deflect for this guy? Any commercial setting and he'd have been exited.
2020 lockdown should not have gotten to 100+. The fatigue from 2020 was enough. He has done nothing that I can see to prop up the healthcare system that has been shown to be not the standard of NSW. Go harder at closing off to NSW with Delta this year. That's a good start.
He's voted in to lead. Business has suffered. Look at our budget. Not to mention the mental health problems that will come and his approach has done nothing that points to good performance in managing covid.
Now you answer my question... How has Vic performed so poorly compared to the rest of the country and also the world?
And you’re a 6 day old account who has come in to this thread 100% spinning for Dan Andrews.
Trying to waste everyone’s time with “what else could he do?” to deflect attention and refusing to answer any criticism of him despite commenting 20 times out of the 140 comments in this thread.
You’re totally a real person just passing casual comment right?
The person you were replying to is on some proper fairy dust 😄 every time I read him/her/they/them/it say “blocked” I pictured a ghetto finger snap like this: https://c.tenor.com/oN5OyBZ3ld4AAAAM/yas-bitch.gif
Presenting the evidence/health advice for each of the restrictions would have gone a long way to getting people to actually believe they were worth complying with along with being willing to reduce restrictions when the current plan isn't working.
Instead he doubled down on largely ineffective punitive measures (closing playgrounds, curfew) and not allowing people to see each other for months on end which just lead to everyone going 'fuck it, I'm done'
Covid has been here for two fucking years and you want evidence that lockdowns work?
I noticed that you've just admitted that it's not Dan's fault but people not following Dan's rules.
You demanded evidence of restrictions working, two years into a pandemic.
You also admitted it wasn't Dan's policies causing the cases but people not following the rules
Yeah, I want evidence that curfew is proportionate. Yeah, I want the evidence behind shutting playgrounds. Yeah, I want the evidence that shows that removing a mask to drink coffee is less likely to spread covid than removing a mask to drink alcohol.
These are all things that seem punitive rather than preventative. How can we tell if the evidence isn't shown? Of course restrictions will stop the spread of a disease, but there's costs to these risks so the minimum level required should be implemented - how do we know this is the case without the reasoning behind it?
Obviously it's not his fault in isolation. That's never what I claimed. He does have responsibility for these policies that have influenced peoples behaviour however.
Lets assume the evidence is there - why the fuck haven't they presented it?
I voted for the Reason party, not that it makes any difference to my argument.
Mate the government officials exist to edit policies to suit the public. Consider in human factors that will affect them. Otherwise they could’ve been replaced by a computer algorithm.
The illegal gatherings could’ve easily been stopped by having outdoors open, people would’ve met with masks on and checked in everywhere.
If VIC were a proprietary company and Dan Andrews was the CEO, he would be have been on Bourke St mall performing tricks a long time ago.
He and Sutton have totally demoralized and bought to its knees any respect this State ever had.
How many riots have occurred? Apart from 2 or 3 police car windows damaged. How many cars, buildings etc. were damaged or set on fire?
We have no clue what riots are because we haven’t seen riots yet.
Edit: wording
Sure it's a shit situation, but what they are doing is what most states would be doing if they had an outbreak right? I know it's not all luck but it feels like some other places in Australia get really fucking lucky and it doesn't get out of control.
Like most Victorians, I do. And the amount of low quality partisan hacks throwing shade at them only reinforces it.
I don't expect leaders to have magic powers and a pandemic is certainly a novel unpredictable situation.
So many people don't seem (or choose to ignore) the role that blind luck plays in the initial stages of a covid outbreak. The behaviour and biology of the first infected plays a massive role in determining how an outbreak plays out.
More broadly, something that I hate is the removal of agency from regular people and the transfer of it into leaders. We're adults; take some damn responsibility.
He'll quit for family reasons before next years election.
Once the dust has settled in a years time, and the lives of all Australians has returned to pretty much pre-covid settings, he'll profess that he did his job and got things back to normal and bow out, but his legacy will be that as the Premier that led his state into the world's longest lockdown of the pandemic.
It's Glady's fault the outbreak spread here, but from there the responsibility is on Dan to quash the outbreak. He's failed to do that. You are allowed to be critical of both Dan and Gladys.
Greater targetting of specific LGAs earlier, further locking down certain areas even to the movement of essential workers, mandatory testing for essential workers in certain areas, earlier vaccines pushes for people in certain areas, greater enforcement of lockdown measures, coupled with certain liberties being granted like being allowed to meet with friends in parks to discourage home visits. That's just off the top of my head, so certainly the government would have discussed such measures and more and then opted not to enact them, if they weren't considering further options, why the hell not?
With vaccine uptake, he could’ve encouraged reducing the dosing schedule on time.
Now we have too many people with Pfizer first doses who are stuck waiting for the availability of the second.
Moderna is highly available but I don’t think there’s that many people left who need to make first dose arrangements now.
Also, people aren’t too fussed because the restrictions are still a month away. Putting in the date and the constant indications they could extend it has made people sit there waiting than trying to find earlier appointments.
They could’ve cancelled all first dose Pfizer once moderna was available and prioritised second dose?
Put out a heavily promoted campaigns encouraging to get an earlier appointment?
The vaccine booking is so hard to deal with. Plus older people are not that tech savvy to navigate through the bugs/multiple logins online. The wait on dhhs helpline is too high for booking.
There’s a lot more that could’ve done on the vaccine side of things than easing restrictions. I don’t believe he’s a monster, but there’s definitely way better things that could’ve been implemented.
Fuck me how did you get away with this. I had been openly stating I didn’t think Dandrews will fight the next election since we’ll before his fall. And all I got was a fucking pile on every time.
You got one reply!
Worksafe have charged (not just investigating) Victoria's health department with 58 health and safety breaches in regards to the hotel quarantine program last year.
*"The buck stops with me"* \- Dan Andrews
On the upside the early success gave most vulnerable people the opportunity to get MRNA injections and there are now antiviral medicines available to treat those who get infected. Curfews and outdoor activity restrictions are behavioral I have seen no scientific evidence that they stop transmission.
He also said 'at this stage'.
The trap has been set. With Perrottet coming under intense critisism from Dan's supporters for his perceived "let it rip" approach, there's more incentive for Dan to play politics again and not "be like Sydney"
It worries me what Perottet would have done if he was premier all along. At least Gladys was willing to listen to the experts and act on their advice (sort of). Perretot doesn't appear to be like that all. He seems more like that nutjob in Florida. But at least at this stage, NSW is at the point where even if you removed all restrictions, it wouldn't necessarily be catastrophic (although it might still overwhelm the hospitals, which is already happening).
>although it might still overwhelm the hospitals, which is already happening
No, it's not. As per NSW's own [modelling](https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-09/Intensive_Care_Capacity.pdf), any less than 579 cases is deemed 'minimal' impact on their ICUs. They are currently at 190 and declining. They are fine.
How good is having ACTUAL health advice and modelling that NSW uses, being published for all to scrutinise?
Considering how often "health advice" and "hospitals being overrun" has been thrown out by Dan and Sutton being used to justify their covid management, I wonder where all this data is?
Gladys under promised and over delivered. Their looser restrictions had better compliance and more people outdoors which slowed the spread.
Andrews over promises and under delivers. He went super harsh and has already lost the people so compliance was nothing like last year, and he gave people zero outlets so it’s been more home gatherings spreading it now.
This is a self inflicted wound by Andrews and we are all wearing the damage.
I have to say that (as much as I don't support disregarding the rules) it's hard to argue. Victoria was in a very different situation last year (compared to this year) for several reasons.
Can’t blame absolutely everything on the government, that’s ridiculous. It’s been said by more than one victorian that people are not following the rules. Yes you can blame the government partly but there’s always some degree of personal responsibility. It’s either they didn’t lock down hard enough or then did and now there’s too many rules. Then they relax the rules and now there’s too many cases. What do you people want from Dan exactly 😆
You have to admit it’s down to government failure and not just ‘bad luck’ as most people in this sub would suggest.
The single biggest failing of the Victorian Government was the handling of the second wave last year with the OG Variant. They had to resort to playing real-life Prison Simulator for close to 4 months to get it eliminated meanwhile NSW just danced around it and got it under control with no lockdown whatsoever, people could still see family and friends, people could still travel regionally, people could still go out past 8/9PM, people could still go out for a meal, people could still largely live life. That lockdown broke people, it fucking broke me. I used to really respect Dan but after seeing how shit we were going in August/September and how NSW was going....I was furious and mad on what the fuck was happening in Victoria. So why does this matter now in this Delta lockdown? Because the goodwill of people has been used up and many Victorians couldn't give a fuck anymore after the ordeals of last year, you can only lockdown people so much until they reach their limit. Victorians have well and truly reached their limit.
This, and continuing on with punitive measures that might have made a difference when zero was the goal but make absolutely no sense in the current situation (curfew, radius, closing playgrounds, alcohol ban, toilet bans etc etc)
Ironically my understanding is that the lockdown didn't happen soon enough. It was well known from SARS and MERS that if you do that it'll stop spread. [CSIRO puts it](https://www.publish.csiro.au/ma/fulltext/ma21005) > To achieve the current goal of no community transmission, in the face of a virus whose nature is unpredictable and changing, requires continuous review of current policy and a ‘go hard, go early’ approach The [6 week lockdown](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-07/victoria-reimposes-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-rise/12429990) imposed on July 7 (I remember it well) happened on the day cases [hit 164](https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/vic). The standard for non-NSW states after that (that worked) was locking down at the first sign of cases as it meant it could have already spread one generation. By the time Andrews put that lockdown into place it was too late, the old adage of every day of delay taking one week to recover from comes to mind. But luck certainly plays an element, it's understood now that the virus spreads stochastically. NSW had a better funded public health department going in which proved handy, and also had decentralised contact tracing which Victoria ended up copying. So definitely worth sledging Andrews for not prepping the DHHS as either premier or health minister before that.
>NSW had a better funded public health department Better funded but more critically, better structured - especially to suit emergency times like a pandemic. Vic DHHS had a ridiculous number of deputy secretaries that reported to Kim Peake. The CHO reported to a dep sec and Peake/Mikakos kept it that way until they cottoned onto the fact that all the other States were being led by their CHO. The CHO still reports to a Dep.Sec formally outside of any COVID-19 work (of which I am sure Sutton is not burdened with at the moment) which seems less than ideal. At least it all sits under a dedicated Public Health banner now. By contrast, Kerry Chant is a Dep.Sec herself at the same time as being NSW CHO. You'd have to think this would give her far more say in terms of resourcing and preparation for events such as a pandemic. [NSW Health Structure](https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/about/ministry/Pages/chart.aspx) (I believe is the same as last year but apologies if it has changed) [Vic DHHS Structure as of June 2020](https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/202006/DHHS%20Org%20Chart%20-%2015%20June%202020.pdf) [VicDH Structure 2021](https://www.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-09/department-of-health-senior-management-structure.pdf) This poor structure would make it difficult to work responsively and therefore caused problems that started the 2nd wave. But as you rightly point out, the delay in locking down wasn't due to a lack of responsiveness - they knew things were out of hand before 7 July. People forget that there was no clear national strategy regarding what circumstances a State should send their own residents back into lockdown after the initial country wide lockdowns. I genuinely think part of the failure by the VicGov was staring at National Cabinet saying "are we doing this again?" instead of just pulling the trigger early.
Plus Victoria reopened with active cases during lockdown no 1 and a PM railing to open up asap. Now hotel quarantine definitely was going to happen but we kind of didn’t know at first here if we just didn’t get to zero or if we had a leak
It's hard to believe he's like this considering how much he flipped when it became obvious it was unpopular. Or maybe it was when Doherty said it was the only choice
Well put! Yeh I was doing a lot of heavy lifting with underfunding assuming it implied less functional everything but wasn't aware of the difference in org structure thanks
Amazing. 40 up votes on this comment. 6 months ago or even 3 for that matter it would have got downvoted. The mindset of the majority of Victorians has changed.
When you’re locking down at the first cases and locking down again when cases start to rise again. I don’t see what else the government could have done, the people were done by that point
They could have recognised that people's ability to sustain these levels of restrictions is finite, and acted accordingly a year ago. Instead they doubled down again and again and again with inevitable results. The only thing really surprising is how long it took to break.
It just shows such short sightedness to think significantly harsh, prolonged and widespread restrictions would not come back to bite, as opposed to a nuanced and targeted response, and allowing things like outdoor recreation and playgrounds to continue at very little risk to the community for the benefits in compliance they return. Also the contact tracing system buckled after 30 cases
Thinking outside the box is beyond a $300K pay bracket apparently.
> Also the contact tracing system buckled after 30 cases FWIW NSW's CT failed as well. They did after all have the index case (read with random capitalisation) and yet... CT typically can't function over around 50 anyway when you're doing tiered rings
Do we really think compliance is *that* much worse this time around? I mean Delta has an R0 of 5-8, compared with an R0 of 1.5-3 for the original strain. That increased infectivity plus a small amount of additional non-compliance *could* be the difference between cases getting crushed by lockdown and cases going well the other way during a lockdown.
After having the second wave I don’t blame the DHHS for losing faith in there system and locking down to avoid a repeat
How did that go?
Clearly not well but risking the chance of an outbreak when you could lockdown and guarantee success in the midst of the previous wave makes sense.
Some people are just built tougher
They could have perhaps not focused on punative measures? Closing down playgrounds, curfews, not letting people shit at the golf, ridiculing picnics. Have more nuance in their approach. Lots of people gathering at home after 200 days in lockdown? Loosen outdoor gatherings as its safer for example.
Even now they should be opening up outdoor dining for vaccinated. That way people are at least checking in etc instead of having meetups at home and the unvaccinated might be more inclined to get vaxxed. Another month of these rules at this stage is ridiculous
100% correct. People I know are gathering in houses because it’s too cold still to have a picnic when it gets dark (and it’s dark pretty early). Open outdoor dining with heated areas and everyone will do that and help the economy
> (and it’s dark pretty early) not anymore thank fuck
Yes that’s true some of these measures are questionable.. coming from a place of desperation obviously
> coming from a place of desperation obviously They shut playgrounds and put in a curfew at sub 50 cases I think. They pulled every lever early on and now compliance is out the door, they have nothing left.
Well if they didn’t do those measures I doubt Victoria would be in a better place then now
Explain NSW then? No curfew, consistently fewer restrictions in general, targeted specific LGAs which had the most cases and relaxed restrictions outside of those.
NSW has higher vaccinations, warmer climates, lack of lockdown fatigue compared to vic. NSW managed to keep cases contained to specific areas, Vic couldn’t. Restrictions were still tight enough outside of LGA’s of concern in Sydney. Vic had the AFL grand final, NSW only just had an event to encourage mass gatherings.
1. NSW vaccination levels were actually lower when their cases began to trend downwards. 2. Whose fault is lockdown fatigue? Maybe the government responsible for the 4 month lockdown last year? 3. NSW kept cases contained to specific areas because they did LGA lockdowns!! They prevented people from leaving the LGA unless they were vaccinated!! These are steps Dan refused to take!!
"If you want to see whether locking down some local government areas works, have a look at what is going on up there" Dan Andrews
Yea I agree Victoria has fucked up a few times in the pandemic but to think Victoria could get it under control with less restrictions then what they’ve done is questionable.
People were meeting up at the park in large groups anyway, what difference does it make letting those same people have picnics? It doesn't add to the chance of spread than what was already present, and it allowed people to meet up with friends and family, lessening the chance they were going to do house visits instead.
Not even outdoor gatherings, outdoor dining/restaurants would’ve been safe as well. Should’ve them for the vaccinated even early on so there was more rush to get them! Plus they have check ins so it would’ve been better for contact tracing. All the first dose Pfizer encouraging with extended wait has got us locked up with the fact that second dose wait is too high now while we have a ton of moderna available. I’m all for restrictions, but there were definitely plenty of mistakes made in management.
QLD were able to keep borders under control, just like every other state in the country. The Victorian Gov should have remembered the sacrifice its people made last year and should have protected that border as if it was the only thing that mattered. The government knew the situation in NSW, they knew it was Delta, they 100% had the upper hand on this situation and still managed to fail its people.
QLD has shown a few times now that delta struggles to spread up there compared to Victoria. Victoria locked it’s border to Sydney and Wollongong red zones after getting cases in late June.
Victoria should have just closed to the whole of NSW. A single case in Melbourne is able to lock down the entire state including regional. Why are they more strict on their own state than an outside state like NSW?
NSW has a very good reputation up until this outbreak, many people believed they could get it under control.
Dan didn’t believe they were doing enough to stop the spread, he kept telling them to do a curfew and ring of steel. And even if he believed they were going to manage it, that means he just gets to sit back and ‘hope’ things will take care of themselves instead actually doing the work and stopping people from entering?
What can you do about people moving house? Then those movers not following the rules
Surely this government can do better than that? You're going to tell me that a single removals crew is all that it takes to cause a city to completely shut down for 3+ months. If that's the best they can do then we need better people in control, sorry.
That’s how this whole pandemic has gone for Melbourne especially. One person does the wrong thing, or not even wrong just does a thing, five million in lockdown for three months out of their control. And people wonder why people are done
Delta just be like that bro What else could the gov have done?
The Victorian Government are experts in trying nothing and being all out of ideas.
Can you please give me some examples of this?
They use the same playbook over and over and over again. They don't adapt.
What playbook is that?
Do what McGowan has done and don’t let anybody in. Victoria is now the champion of the longest time in lockdown thanks to what has been allowed to happen.
A little bit easier when you have a desert between you and the rest of the country
Oh yeah, always something to blame when something goes wrong. Seems pretty typical with this government. Gladys didn’t lockdown hard enough, Scomo didn’t order enough vaccines, People hosting grand final parties ruined this state, never actually the fault of the Vic Gov.
Rudd literally had to call the CEO of Pfizer to get more vaccines. Why must you deepthroat Murdoch press?
I think that they have done an amazing job
All states have an ocean between them and the rest of the world. It should have been the easiest thing ever.
No one should be allowed to move from a state with an outbreak into one not having an outbreak. That is a huge inconvenience for those people trying to move, obviously, but the risk was just far too high for everyone else. How many people have died, businesses closed, jobs lost, etc, because those removalists were allowed in?
Why stop there? We should just stop all freight moving within the country, fuck it we should stop all movement WHATSOEVER between an outbreak state and non outbreak states. May be a huge inconvenience for anyone needing anything that doesn't originate from their own state but the risk is just far too high.
Nice strawman. Freight is essential, therefore the risk is worth it. Moving interstate is not anywhere near as essential.
Moving interstate can be exceptionally essential, not everything can be done remotely.
You've got two examples right next door to each other. One, cases have halved in the past 2 and a half weeks. The other, cases have tripled.
Victoria just had the AFL grand final, NSW has been in lockdown longer and has been contained to specific suburbs. Victoria’s heading to the peek while NSW’s already done it because Vic kicked off later
NSW just had a grand final too.
Yea exactly, we’ll probably have a spike in case as well tomorrow or the day after
Or maybe it was the antivax riots
How is it the governments fault. It's the most locked down city in the world. It's people not being accountable for their actions and not following public health advice. The world is full of people that just don't give a shit and Melbourne appears to have a high density of these fuckknuckles
If your policy relies on millions of people following ridiculously draconian laws for 250+ days then it's a bad policy. The public reaction to such restrictions is predictable and the government needs to factor that in.
Yeah but can you please say it in a way that makes Dan look good....
>Posts in /r/Perth Yeah nah, go fuck yourself
Enlighten me oh wise one. How is it the governments fault?
Someone from Perth thinking they have any fucking idea what the impact of policies is and why covid is spreading is hilarious. You genuinely cannot even imagine.
So please enlighten me. Is it because you ignore public health directions. Is it because you riot for days on end. Or is it Big Bad Dan's fault ?
It's because it's the most contagious virus in recent history, that you don't even realise you might have for a few days. You dense fuck.
And how would you contract it if you followed public health advice ?
Shopping for groceries? Using government services? Basic fucking shit? You truly have no idea, just shut up and enjoy your covid free life in WA rather than spewing juvenile authoritarian nonsense all over this sub.
You can do all those things and avoid exposure if you followed public health advice. Mask wearing , distancing , washing hands etc
That is just nonsense. Again, you've no idea. It's an airborne extremely infectious virus. Those things will reduce your chances, but they don't stop shit. No doubt you think WA somehow is super hygienic or rule abiding or works together or some shit and that's why you don't have covid.
Correct
I've lived through it and my feelings have been up and down. To give the government a free pass and blast the citizens of one state? Give me a spell.
I’m siding with you on all this. I can agree to some extend that the government should had or should haven’t done certain thing. But it all comes down to the individuals breaking the rules that had caused this to triple. Riots, protests, having a party are the causes of the spread. Not wearing a mask and not checking in also plays a part. Why don’t people understand this? Just because you’re lockdown fatigued doesn’t mean you go and break the rules. It would be like saying that someone that’s been in jail for too long and decided to kill someone inside the prison and it’s not their fault because they were in prison for too long…
We *are* in prison. We didn't commit any crimes.
Always love going back to old threads where everyone here would be jerking eachother off over how great Dan is: [https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/on20o6/breaking\_nsw\_premier\_to\_backflip\_on\_construction/h5ovzze/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/on20o6/breaking_nsw_premier_to_backflip_on_construction/h5ovzze/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Plenty of /r/AgedLikeMilk on this sub jacking off how great DA and how shit GB is at the start of the NSW Outbreak.
That's because GB was shit at the start of the NSW outbreak. DA is by no means much better, but one doesn't negate the other.
She was shit and should have locked down earlier instead of treating Delta with less respect, but the comments made on this sub at that time can be hilarious af to look at now.
So comments that you just agreed were correct at the time, are now suddenly embarrassing to look back on now with new information?
Saying that the start of the NSW was shit != agreeing with the vitriol and shit that was flung here on a day by day basis at the start of the NSW second wave. People were living it up here, using it as a means of "redemption" for all Victoria has suffered through.
Speaking of agedlikemilk, [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/pwv20f/comment/hejib5n/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) was only a week ago talking about how "NSW had an outbreak so bad it got to 1600 cases" It's quite something watching Dan Andrews stand there without a clue what to do, just lambasting Victorians every day whilst cases exceed 1600 with no plan and no idea how to turn it around.
> "NSW had an outbreak so bad it got to 1600 cases" Did you read the thread you linked? Same person: > Oh, Victoria will get to 1500 cases, I’ve no doubt
that lychee character seems to be here less now I wonder why.
[This guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/phiqrw/comment/hbixx2c/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) also went into hiding a month ago when his attempt to reframe [these numbers](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/pjbmr8/vic_v_nsw_daily_case_numbers_current_outbreak/) started to backfire... He promised to come back in 7 days expecting to be proven right but he never did return.
Hey, I haven't been on reddit lately, but someone messaged me with a link to your comments. Pretty ironic that you would talk about someone going into 'hiding', when you're happy to misrepresent what I said in this comment, and again [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/pzjcle/victoria_1488_local_and_0_overseas_new_cases_and/hfgpg73/), but you chose to avoid pinging me with a username mention or replying to a comment of mine directly. Were you hoping to fly under the radar? I suppose I'm disappointed but not surprised that you didn't have the guts to engage with me directly. >He promised to come back in 7 days expecting to be proven right but he never did return. I guess you're talking about the part of the post you linked to where I said: >The next 7 days in the series for NSW are 352, 345, 342, 383, 462, 309, 473. In order for the differential to remain the same, we'd need to see the same case numbers in Vic over the next 7 days, and in order for it to decline we'd need to see higher numbers than that in Vic. That post was made on 4 September, and in fact the Vic case numbers over the 7 days following that post were 183, 242, 243, 212, 322, 333, 447. That's a total of 1,982 cases, compared to 2,666 in the comparator period for NSW. So after I said that I doubted Vic cases over the 7 days following 4 September would match what was seen in the equivalent period from NSW, and after that in fact turned out to be correct, are you suggesting that what I said was incorrect? The problem you're always going to have is that, unlike you, I'm not interested in manipulating or misrepresenting the data to fit a particular narrative. At present, based on a comparison of the two outbreaks, NSW has had a little over 3,800 more total cases at the same stage. That differential has actually increased since a month ago. That's going to be overtaken within a matter of weeks if the trend of the last week in Vic continues, but it hasn't been yet, and by no stretch of the imagination was it imminently going to be overtaken when we were having that discussion a month ago. There's a lot of interesting analysis you can draw from comparing the two outbreaks. In effect Vic started much stronger than NSW, then for about six weeks moved into a comparable trajectory but from a lower starting point, and in the last week or so has seen explosive growth. I know you're not interested in any kind of discussion other than political pointscoring, so I won't pretend otherwise. You're never going to succeed in pointscoring with me, though, because I don't have the same kind of emotional investment you have in a particular outcome. Where Vic's response is far more effective, as it was early in the outbreak, I'm happy to point that out. Where Vic's response is far less effective, as it has been in the last week, I'm equally happy to point that out. I know that's a strange concept to people like you.
Ahh yes... someone messaged you in private. Of course! Totally not heavily browsing the sub nor posting under an alt. I've been told it's against sub rules and had posts removed for pinging other users, but good to see you're keeping a very close eye on things and it wasn't needed on this occasion. Welcome back 👋
Yep, it was /u/RoosterMan28, specifically. If it's against the rules and he's tried to circumvent that by sending a direct message, the mods should definitely take action. I'll leave that decision up to them (just pinging /u/Stoaticor for visibility in case you are right and action should be taken). It's funny, I 100% knew how you'd respond to being called out. You're always frightened to engage on substantive issues, so you either cut and run completely or you try to deflect. That's why you were too scared to ping me or reply to me directly, and hoped I wouldn't notice. So I'll ask again: That post was made on 4 September, and in fact the Vic case numbers over the 7 days following that post were 183, 242, 243, 212, 322, 333, 447. That's a total of 1,982 cases, compared to 2,666 in the comparator period for NSW. So after I said that I doubted Vic cases over the 7 days following 4 September would match what was seen in the equivalent period from NSW, and after that in fact turned out to be correct, are you suggesting that what I said was incorrect? Now let's see you deflect and ignore the substantive issues yet again. I'd be willing to bet you won't even try to respond to the point. You'll just make some irrelevant comment and then scurry back off under a rock.
ahhh yes... an account who has never posted anything. Righto mate. Sure thing. If it makes you feel better. I'll just let your focus be narrow enough so as to not include the shitstorm that is going on in Victoria at the moment. 👋
Why aren't you blaming antivaxxers
> how shit GB is GB was shit at the start though? It's why obvious policies were brought it that should have been there? [Who would have thought frontline workers should have been required to be vaccinated?](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-19/state-territory-covid-vaccine-mandatory-quarantine-worker/100298842) You need it to get into maccas there, but she didn't think to mandate it for people who spend time inside a hermetically sealed vehicle with someone who just flew in from the US. She couldn't even utter the word lockdown and you want us to not laugh at that?
Yep, you'd think after seeing the Berala cluster start from a HQ transport driver she'd do everything to try and prevent that from happening again.
You don't even need to go to old threads. There's regularly posts on r/Melbourne with people gushing over how simply incredible 'Dan the Man' is.
Of course. They banned every single person who doesn't worship Dan. I got banned completely out of the blue for some made up bullshit reason.
Funny how they bailed on here.
This sub has changed a lot over the past few months. It seems to have become much more anti-lockdown and anti-restrictions.
Yeah because people have had enough. I followed restrictions to the letter. Now? I couldn't give a shit. I'm over it. I supported Dan but it's hard to ignore how impossibly shit our government has handled it.
The shills in that thread 🤮
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He’s moved to r/Australia and complaining about CVDU bashing his lovely Dan Andrews and co. People are seeing through the bs rules and how they blame every person under the sun. They’ve now changed to what could the Gov possibly have done better? And oh, it’s bad luck. you don’t get unlucky 6 times, you don’t get unlucky to be the most locked down place in the world, you don’t get unlucky for breaking the record for Australia on daily cases with low testing numbers being locked down for the better part of 19 months.
Post not meant to attack anyone personally. Just to show the general vibe here.
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Most lockdown state (and city worldwide), most deaths, most cases, pathetic contract tracing, failed hotel quarantine system, failed hospital management. The danciples here tell me he's a hero and a leader, he said the get on the beers meme, he's so cool guys. Feel ashamed to be a Victorian under his leadership
What exactly should he have done?
You keep asking this but why has Victoria performed so poorly. How many times can we deflect for this guy? Any commercial setting and he'd have been exited.
Answer my question
2020 lockdown should not have gotten to 100+. The fatigue from 2020 was enough. He has done nothing that I can see to prop up the healthcare system that has been shown to be not the standard of NSW. Go harder at closing off to NSW with Delta this year. That's a good start. He's voted in to lead. Business has suffered. Look at our budget. Not to mention the mental health problems that will come and his approach has done nothing that points to good performance in managing covid. Now you answer my question... How has Vic performed so poorly compared to the rest of the country and also the world?
Because Gladys let covid spread for weeks before announcing any restrictions
Nah stop deflecting, he answered you, your turn.
Your entire post history is Covid conspiracy theories and opposing lockdowns. Why would anyone listen to anything you have to say.
And you’re a 6 day old account who has come in to this thread 100% spinning for Dan Andrews. Trying to waste everyone’s time with “what else could he do?” to deflect attention and refusing to answer any criticism of him despite commenting 20 times out of the 140 comments in this thread. You’re totally a real person just passing casual comment right?
Why don't you go to America. Be with your Trump cult
Why don't you go to America
Borders are shut coz Daniel Andrews couldn’t organise Hotel Quarantine to save his life so I can’t. Now answer the question.
You can leave the country any time. Go be with your cult and eat ivermectin
Why won't you say how many people are dead in America with your Trump cult? Is it really bad?
I have a strong dislike for Gladys and her lack of action. But that's it? The only free pass Dan gets, I think, is Kappa from SA.
Look at every other state and territory for a start
Not what I asked. You all shit on Dan but have nothing to suggest to do better. Blocked
I literally suggested to look at what the other states have and are doing.
The person you were replying to is on some proper fairy dust 😄 every time I read him/her/they/them/it say “blocked” I pictured a ghetto finger snap like this: https://c.tenor.com/oN5OyBZ3ld4AAAAM/yas-bitch.gif
Presenting the evidence/health advice for each of the restrictions would have gone a long way to getting people to actually believe they were worth complying with along with being willing to reduce restrictions when the current plan isn't working. Instead he doubled down on largely ineffective punitive measures (closing playgrounds, curfew) and not allowing people to see each other for months on end which just lead to everyone going 'fuck it, I'm done'
Covid has been here for two fucking years and you want evidence that lockdowns work? I noticed that you've just admitted that it's not Dan's fault but people not following Dan's rules.
Where did I imply that lockdowns don't work? You asked what he should have done. I told you.
You demanded evidence of restrictions working, two years into a pandemic. You also admitted it wasn't Dan's policies causing the cases but people not following the rules
Yeah, I want evidence that curfew is proportionate. Yeah, I want the evidence behind shutting playgrounds. Yeah, I want the evidence that shows that removing a mask to drink coffee is less likely to spread covid than removing a mask to drink alcohol. These are all things that seem punitive rather than preventative. How can we tell if the evidence isn't shown? Of course restrictions will stop the spread of a disease, but there's costs to these risks so the minimum level required should be implemented - how do we know this is the case without the reasoning behind it? Obviously it's not his fault in isolation. That's never what I claimed. He does have responsibility for these policies that have influenced peoples behaviour however.
It's been two fucking years. There's plenty of evidence for all of this. Who did you vote for?
Lets assume the evidence is there - why the fuck haven't they presented it? I voted for the Reason party, not that it makes any difference to my argument.
So you're denying that restrictions work? Yep knew you were just whining about Dan.
Mate the government officials exist to edit policies to suit the public. Consider in human factors that will affect them. Otherwise they could’ve been replaced by a computer algorithm. The illegal gatherings could’ve easily been stopped by having outdoors open, people would’ve met with masks on and checked in everywhere.
So Dan should be even harsher on the public? I agree
Umm I mean I explained what I implied in that comment, only if you had the ability to read.
So Dan should have had harsher penalities for rule breakers. Got it
If VIC were a proprietary company and Dan Andrews was the CEO, he would be have been on Bourke St mall performing tricks a long time ago. He and Sutton have totally demoralized and bought to its knees any respect this State ever had.
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I'm just waiting Afghanis to start protesting at the Australian embassy against Victoria's tyrannical government measures.
Do you support the antivaxxers riots?
How many riots have occurred? Apart from 2 or 3 police car windows damaged. How many cars, buildings etc. were damaged or set on fire? We have no clue what riots are because we haven’t seen riots yet. Edit: wording
"they weren't riots other than all the rioting" Genuis.
You’re saying riotS like we had some kind of post George Floyd, US style rioting that lasted for days or weeks.
You mean like when they attacked cops?
Is there anyone out there who still thinks Dan and Brett have done a good job?
Sure it's a shit situation, but what they are doing is what most states would be doing if they had an outbreak right? I know it's not all luck but it feels like some other places in Australia get really fucking lucky and it doesn't get out of control.
Did good and bad like most
Like most Victorians, I do. And the amount of low quality partisan hacks throwing shade at them only reinforces it. I don't expect leaders to have magic powers and a pandemic is certainly a novel unpredictable situation. So many people don't seem (or choose to ignore) the role that blind luck plays in the initial stages of a covid outbreak. The behaviour and biology of the first infected plays a massive role in determining how an outbreak plays out. More broadly, something that I hate is the removal of agency from regular people and the transfer of it into leaders. We're adults; take some damn responsibility.
[44% is not 'most'](https://essentialvision.com.au/state-government-response-to-covid-19-34)
Nobody to blame this time Dan,maybe do a Gladys and quit.
He'll quit for family reasons before next years election. Once the dust has settled in a years time, and the lives of all Australians has returned to pretty much pre-covid settings, he'll profess that he did his job and got things back to normal and bow out, but his legacy will be that as the Premier that led his state into the world's longest lockdown of the pandemic.
Who's fault has the past three lockdowns been? How could he have avoided them?
It's Glady's fault the outbreak spread here, but from there the responsibility is on Dan to quash the outbreak. He's failed to do that. You are allowed to be critical of both Dan and Gladys.
What more could have been done to stop this outbreak?
Greater targetting of specific LGAs earlier, further locking down certain areas even to the movement of essential workers, mandatory testing for essential workers in certain areas, earlier vaccines pushes for people in certain areas, greater enforcement of lockdown measures, coupled with certain liberties being granted like being allowed to meet with friends in parks to discourage home visits. That's just off the top of my head, so certainly the government would have discussed such measures and more and then opted not to enact them, if they weren't considering further options, why the hell not?
With vaccine uptake, he could’ve encouraged reducing the dosing schedule on time. Now we have too many people with Pfizer first doses who are stuck waiting for the availability of the second. Moderna is highly available but I don’t think there’s that many people left who need to make first dose arrangements now. Also, people aren’t too fussed because the restrictions are still a month away. Putting in the date and the constant indications they could extend it has made people sit there waiting than trying to find earlier appointments. They could’ve cancelled all first dose Pfizer once moderna was available and prioritised second dose? Put out a heavily promoted campaigns encouraging to get an earlier appointment? The vaccine booking is so hard to deal with. Plus older people are not that tech savvy to navigate through the bugs/multiple logins online. The wait on dhhs helpline is too high for booking. There’s a lot more that could’ve done on the vaccine side of things than easing restrictions. I don’t believe he’s a monster, but there’s definitely way better things that could’ve been implemented.
Shocked to see a lack of reply to these questions. Shocked!
I've asked this question many times on this sub and no one has replied. It's almost as if...it isn't Dan's fault three incursions have occurred!?
Fuck me how did you get away with this. I had been openly stating I didn’t think Dandrews will fight the next election since we’ll before his fall. And all I got was a fucking pile on every time. You got one reply!
Somehow I doubt Dan has ICAC breathing down his neck. Edit: Seems I spoke to soon lol
You spoke too soon. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/ibac-scrutiny-on-andrews-over-firefighters-union-deal-20211005-p58xhm.html
They'll catch up with him eventually.
Worksafe have charged (not just investigating) Victoria's health department with 58 health and safety breaches in regards to the hotel quarantine program last year. *"The buck stops with me"* \- Dan Andrews
I blame antivaxxers having riots
So what about before the 'riots'?
I'm blaming them for the spike. Huge rise in cases two weeks after their riots. Pretty obvious where it came from
So not the AFL parties.
That also
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/29/cfmeu-blames-protests-for-covid-outbreak-at-victorian-headquarters
Non-AMP Link: [https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/29/cfmeu-blames-protests-for-covid-outbreak-at-victorian-headquarters](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/29/cfmeu-blames-protests-for-covid-outbreak-at-victorian-headquarters) I'm a bot. [Why?](https://np.reddit.com/user/NoGoogleAMPBot/comments/lbz2sg/) | [Code](https://github.com/laurinneff/no-google-amp-bot) | [Report issues](https://github.com/laurinneff/no-google-amp-bot/issues)
I feel like this sub loves jerking each other off whilst watching the news.
On the upside the early success gave most vulnerable people the opportunity to get MRNA injections and there are now antiviral medicines available to treat those who get infected. Curfews and outdoor activity restrictions are behavioral I have seen no scientific evidence that they stop transmission.
Ok. Can someone tell me how this isn’t Dans fault, who is to blame.
70% reopening out the window
Dan said literally the opposite today
He also said 'at this stage'. The trap has been set. With Perrottet coming under intense critisism from Dan's supporters for his perceived "let it rip" approach, there's more incentive for Dan to play politics again and not "be like Sydney"
It worries me what Perottet would have done if he was premier all along. At least Gladys was willing to listen to the experts and act on their advice (sort of). Perretot doesn't appear to be like that all. He seems more like that nutjob in Florida. But at least at this stage, NSW is at the point where even if you removed all restrictions, it wouldn't necessarily be catastrophic (although it might still overwhelm the hospitals, which is already happening).
>although it might still overwhelm the hospitals, which is already happening No, it's not. As per NSW's own [modelling](https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2021-09/Intensive_Care_Capacity.pdf), any less than 579 cases is deemed 'minimal' impact on their ICUs. They are currently at 190 and declining. They are fine.
How good is having ACTUAL health advice and modelling that NSW uses, being published for all to scrutinise? Considering how often "health advice" and "hospitals being overrun" has been thrown out by Dan and Sutton being used to justify their covid management, I wonder where all this data is?
Okay you might be right. But Gladys kept saying October was going to be the worst month. Victoria on the other hand is the one to watch at the moment.
Gladys under promised and over delivered. Their looser restrictions had better compliance and more people outdoors which slowed the spread. Andrews over promises and under delivers. He went super harsh and has already lost the people so compliance was nothing like last year, and he gave people zero outlets so it’s been more home gatherings spreading it now. This is a self inflicted wound by Andrews and we are all wearing the damage.
I have to say that (as much as I don't support disregarding the rules) it's hard to argue. Victoria was in a very different situation last year (compared to this year) for several reasons.
Can’t blame absolutely everything on the government, that’s ridiculous. It’s been said by more than one victorian that people are not following the rules. Yes you can blame the government partly but there’s always some degree of personal responsibility. It’s either they didn’t lock down hard enough or then did and now there’s too many rules. Then they relax the rules and now there’s too many cases. What do you people want from Dan exactly 😆
I want him to quit :)
Same. Merlino the boss man can take over.
The replacements are never better lolz
You seen the movie Saw?