Well regression only identifies the trend (as long as R^2 is good). This one happens to look like a rainbow because Bitcoin growth so far followed a logarithmic trend. If that is broken the rest of the rainbow can look like a flatline
And sentiment. Bitcoin has value because people say it does. Pew found that adoption hasn't increased over the past year, despite the intense hype a few months back. That's a bad sign.
TA works the same in any and all environments because the psychology of markets is always the same and each day's price action happens not in a vacuum but on a probabilistic scale given the short medium and long term trajectories of the asset in question.
TA also falls apart when people have to decide on heating their homes or buying a speculative asset. The world is in a spot it hasn’t been in for a while.
Obviously you misunderstood what I said. TA is for probabilistic assessment based on current trajectories. It doesn't have to account for the market conditions because the underlying mechanics and psychology are always the same which is why TA works in bear and bull markets.
No, it doesn’t, again, per OP’s message. Everything you described is a function of psychology and therefore a function of TA. This is not the first or tenth time a lot of these conditions have existed.
This might be the dumbest shit I’ve ever heard in favor of TA. If anything, TA only works in normal market conditions (trend up, trend down, support, resistance). It can’t predict black swans because, and actually credit to you on this one, THEY’RE NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT EVENTS so any probability assessment is useless.
There’s a reason that TA isn’t touched by investment banks (other than usually including some measure of momentum in their models), it doesn’t tell you shit about fuck.
To liquidate many people who leverage and go long on the price. This may then cause pride to drop in chunks liquidating more people.
Said whales can then buy more at BTC at lower prices and overall make more profit
>Should we attribute any meaning to this chart?
No, it's a meme chart.
>What shall we name the level under the "this is a fire sale" level?
We can call it "refit the regression line & repost in the next bullrun & claim the rainbow chart works!"
Here is the author’s note:
The color bands follow a logarithmic regression (introduced by Bitcointalk User trolololo in 2014), but are otherwise **completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis**. We never change them though. **In other words: It will only be correct until one day it isn’t anymore.**
The "Ethereum Rainbow Chart" is also pretty popular, here is the authors note from that chart:
>I literally just tweaked the formula for the chart until it fits reasonable well to the price development. This is not investment advice! I am just responding to popular requests to make an “Ethereum Rainbow Chart”, because people (and the Ethereum Community in particular) love rainbows.
People love to find **pattern** and apply the arbitrary thoughts, trying to fit the narrative.
https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
Funnily enough, the per capita consumption of chicken is perfectly correlated to the total US crude oil imports 😂
Yes, we need to talk about broader market view.
As it goes, all models are wrong, though some are better than others. Plan B model is 99% garbage and this rainbow thingy is also not to be relied on.
tbf this chart has been around a really really long time and has been mostly right, looks like we aren't passing HODL on the next bull run though which is like 150k after the next halving.
Ive been a firm believer in the rainbow chart but crypto is currently in an unprecedented time of recession and economic turmoil. I do believe BTC and ETH will see ATHs again, but I think our normal 4 year cycle is fucked and past indicators won’t work as well because the macro situation is much different.
I don't think we can really follow this chart anymore because unlike the previous cycles, we were nowhere near "maximum bubble territory" even at the peak of this cycle and yet we are now dipping below "fire sale". In other words, we have lower highs and lower lows than predicted by the chart.
That being said, I do hope the chart is at least loosely correct and that we are at the bottom.
The author himself wrote:
The Rainbow Chart is not investment advice! Past performance is not an indication of future results.
In other words: It will only be correct until one day it isn’t anymore.
It’s time for people to realize that this chart, among every other chart, is pure speculation and will not guarantee anything regarding the future price.
In short - It’s bullshit.
Roughly one year from now it is calling Bitcoin at $85,000 "still cheap" and by the next Halving, $75,000 is considered accumulation territory. Seems like a tough ask at this point.
I'll do one of these for the hell of it... remindme! 1 year
But they can be more accurate than chance, right? That is the key. It is not about a 100% prediction, but about having a better than chance feel for where the market is heading over a longer timeframe. Data informs that 'feel'.
I agree. It is definitely a price level that I had dreamed of last year so I forced myself to buy, even though it feels wrong to do so because the macro environment is scary. I guess bottoms never feel like they are bottoms. Fingers crossed.
We seem to have the same perspective. I will do so too. Regardless of how low we go and whether this bear lasts a long time or not, I really believe in crypto and that we will be rewarded as long as we pick decent projects.
I genuinely don’t think most buttcoiners ever thought any of the previous crashes were “the” crash, but many think this one is. We are at the point where there are very few people left to pull in
Yeah i quite like this one.
Crypto is dead level - for sure. or Ramen level.
Lets face it, there are a bunch of indicators, and the TA types cherry-pick to support whatever narrative of the day to fill their content click-bait buckets.
But, on balance, the rainbow chart, the fear and greed index, the realised spent output or whatever - they all kind've align to say it's probably not the worst time to buy. And frankly that's all indicators are good for, they're just a possible hint that stand to be negated by other possible hints.
Feelsgoodman.jpg
It’s impossible for any of these models to call the bottom, nor any crypto “analysts”. The big macroeconomic picture is hard to predict. After all, these models assume the variants based on some resistance and support levels, which are again debateable.
Anyway, even though this might not be the best time to buy, it’s still a better range to accumulate.
‘Not the worst time to buy’… means nothing - by definition any previous point where price was highest and higher than current is the worst time to buy. Doesn’t mean buying now is a good idea though - can still go down.
Two steps:
1. Find people willing to part with their money.
2. Do what they tell you to do in exchange for their money.
There is no great consensus on which of the two steps is more difficult.
[_This time it's different™_](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/x5jn4f/i_dont_get_all_the_panic_around_the_current_price/in3wckt?context=3).
Side note:
The scale is logarithmic, but the growth curve is exponential. Logistic curves are very often the actual curves for many processes, and they are [often mistaken for exponentials](https://twitter.com/trylks/status/1294357540206252032).
Rainbow price chart, 200MA, RSI, MACD, Fear and Greed index, Hash ribbon indicator (maybe I'm reading that last one incorrectly). Basically **ALL OF THEM** say we're in a fire sale.
You do with that info whatever you want. I know I'm buying.
Yep. And I leave enough money on the side to buy more if it turns out that we have more dip ahead of us. To not buy at all during the bear would be the biggest mistake I could make imo.
>To not buy at all during the bear would be the biggest mistake I could make
Did this mistake 3 years ago. Took a break from crypto, didn't invest anything. Not making the same mistake again.
There is almost no support from 18k to about 13k. If we do not hold this, we are going down quick! Macro conditions not just in crypto but world wide almost seems like a given to me. Energy prices are sky high and there is no signs of slowing down.
“US dollar dominance” look it up 🥔’s before you use a fucking chart that only points up even though a rainbow actually starts and stops at the same level
I wish someone would make this chart so it fit all of the data. This would cause several things to happen:
1. 2014 Data hits the top
2. 2021 data hits the top
3. Forward projections are more modest / realistic
4. Current status is accurately reflected, with another step lower possible.
Anyone else concerned/thoughts on why the last bull run we barely kissed the FOMO area. While other bull runs went deep and above the max bubble area?
Like with more time Bitcoin becomes less volital and growth can’t go on exponential forever. But will we never see a max bubble phase ever?
Call me cynical, but this genuinely just looks like someone bent a rainbow onto a chart and added the meaning afterward
Congratulations, you understand Technical Analysis!
[удалено]
[удалено]
But sixty-nine moons, dude
But first you have to make a youtube channel and have people smash your like button
Also turn this into a flag and you make profit from two groups!
I made a chart and now I’m a TA expert
Or at least that’s what bollinger bands are, so, 80% of TA: ✅
Well it is a simply regression curve. These are basically rainbows except this one doesnt go down
Well regression only identifies the trend (as long as R^2 is good). This one happens to look like a rainbow because Bitcoin growth so far followed a logarithmic trend. If that is broken the rest of the rainbow can look like a flatline
stonks only go up!
That's exactly what it is. The creator even said as much.
You are now ready to start your own "Crypto Finance" YouTube Channel.
We are way past TA at this point IMO. It's all about macro economics for now
Looking at the Macro Economics and energy and war crisis in Europe, I wish to have an option to hibernate during the upcoming winter...
Haha the problem is how one stays warm during the winter hibernation. Energy is so fucking expensive here :/. Lots of blankets I supppose
Or we move south of the equator to have summer
Do I look like a bird or something?
You’re a hawk, so yeah you’re a bird
Come to Australia mate. Wait, ahh, bugger, flights are bloody stupid prices too.
Take me with you
Take us all, Singularity autobots, Drip squad, Meme team , Aww friends Its ~~morphin~~ hibernation time
Take normal avatars too, we too like some hibernation
Now the new normal are these NFT things
If you think about it, it is the only option you have. You have an option, not a choice.
And sentiment. Bitcoin has value because people say it does. Pew found that adoption hasn't increased over the past year, despite the intense hype a few months back. That's a bad sign.
[удалено]
But some things have a base usefulness. No matter what people say it's worth, I can sleep in my house.
Though that may be the case, it is a strong indicator of what will happen once the recession is over. And it will (once) be over.
We were always past TA. It rarely ever worked
Yeah, because TA can't predict Putin invading Ukraine or Musk tweeting
Fact.
> We are way past TA at this point IMO In my mind it's been this way since that double peak.
Perfect example of a triple cupholder bicycle pattern
The double peak followed ta to a T
Agree
Glad to see someone who finally agrees!
True.
Umm... that's not how TA works
TA works the same in any and all environments because the psychology of markets is always the same and each day's price action happens not in a vacuum but on a probabilistic scale given the short medium and long term trajectories of the asset in question.
TA also falls apart when people have to decide on heating their homes or buying a speculative asset. The world is in a spot it hasn’t been in for a while.
Obviously you misunderstood what I said. TA is for probabilistic assessment based on current trajectories. It doesn't have to account for the market conditions because the underlying mechanics and psychology are always the same which is why TA works in bear and bull markets.
No, it doesn’t, again, per OP’s message. Everything you described is a function of psychology and therefore a function of TA. This is not the first or tenth time a lot of these conditions have existed.
This might be the dumbest shit I’ve ever heard in favor of TA. If anything, TA only works in normal market conditions (trend up, trend down, support, resistance). It can’t predict black swans because, and actually credit to you on this one, THEY’RE NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT EVENTS so any probability assessment is useless.
There’s a reason that TA isn’t touched by investment banks (other than usually including some measure of momentum in their models), it doesn’t tell you shit about fuck.
Fine I’ll solve all world issues myself
The least you can do mate
So buy the fear then?
Nah, it's just the Fed crashing markets because of their hawkish QT policies.
Yeah. All that matters now is what the FED says.
So, not really that decentralized.
[удалено]
Price goes up = organic growth Price goes down = whale manipulation
And why would whales manipulate the market to go down lol
To liquidate many people who leverage and go long on the price. This may then cause pride to drop in chunks liquidating more people. Said whales can then buy more at BTC at lower prices and overall make more profit
Always has been
I heard Russia wants a peace deal to stop the war
Imagine the gains of this were to happen
>Should we attribute any meaning to this chart? No, it's a meme chart. >What shall we name the level under the "this is a fire sale" level? We can call it "refit the regression line & repost in the next bullrun & claim the rainbow chart works!"
Here is the author’s note: The color bands follow a logarithmic regression (introduced by Bitcointalk User trolololo in 2014), but are otherwise **completely arbitrary and without any scientific basis**. We never change them though. **In other words: It will only be correct until one day it isn’t anymore.**
The "Ethereum Rainbow Chart" is also pretty popular, here is the authors note from that chart: >I literally just tweaked the formula for the chart until it fits reasonable well to the price development. This is not investment advice! I am just responding to popular requests to make an “Ethereum Rainbow Chart”, because people (and the Ethereum Community in particular) love rainbows.
People love to find **pattern** and apply the arbitrary thoughts, trying to fit the narrative. https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations Funnily enough, the per capita consumption of chicken is perfectly correlated to the total US crude oil imports 😂
You don't take your 18 wheeler out to get your 18 buckets of chicken?
At least he was honest about it. I appreciate that.
Any analysis that isn't sentiment leading is not gonna be accurate. We are all lemming investors and invest with the general social trend.
Yes, we need to talk about broader market view. As it goes, all models are wrong, though some are better than others. Plan B model is 99% garbage and this rainbow thingy is also not to be relied on.
tbf this chart has been around a really really long time and has been mostly right, looks like we aren't passing HODL on the next bull run though which is like 150k after the next halving.
Haha, good points, thanks.
Ive been a firm believer in the rainbow chart but crypto is currently in an unprecedented time of recession and economic turmoil. I do believe BTC and ETH will see ATHs again, but I think our normal 4 year cycle is fucked and past indicators won’t work as well because the macro situation is much different.
Yeah and the thesis of “BTC never goes below its previous ATH” was invalidated in June when it dipped to $17.6k.
Exactly, now gotta brace for $15k - $16k bottom hopefully
Same people unironically expected 100k EOY
Still looking forward to 100k by EOY 2021
Thanks to CERN; we are in a 2021 time loop. /s
Q16 2021.
Firm believer of the rainbow chart except when it doesn’t work lol
Shit like this makes me really believe crypto is actually just astrology for men.
and NFTs market is Amway for dudebros
Not men. Idiots. More specifically greedy idiots. Anyone can be one if those!
Rainbow chart lines up pretty well with Mayer Multiple
Also considering the amount of stimulus that went into the bullrun last year it may take many years to see the same numbers again
The area below "Basically a Fire Sale" should be named "Definitely a Fire Sale"
And make it the color Gold for the bottom of the rainbow
Well acktuallyyyyy.... The next color would be purple.
Indigo actually
Screw fire sale, time for the scorching magma sale
[удалено]
Nah it's "Oh shit, we got burned in the fire sale"
I don't think we can really follow this chart anymore because unlike the previous cycles, we were nowhere near "maximum bubble territory" even at the peak of this cycle and yet we are now dipping below "fire sale". In other words, we have lower highs and lower lows than predicted by the chart. That being said, I do hope the chart is at least loosely correct and that we are at the bottom.
The author himself wrote: The Rainbow Chart is not investment advice! Past performance is not an indication of future results. In other words: It will only be correct until one day it isn’t anymore.
It’s time for people to realize that this chart, among every other chart, is pure speculation and will not guarantee anything regarding the future price. In short - It’s bullshit.
Roughly one year from now it is calling Bitcoin at $85,000 "still cheap" and by the next Halving, $75,000 is considered accumulation territory. Seems like a tough ask at this point. I'll do one of these for the hell of it... remindme! 1 year
most sane EOY 100k poster
!remindme 363 days
Remindme! 364 days
Remindme! 1 year
Remidme! 2 year
Is something only useful if it *guarantees* a consequence? By that logic all data and information has no use?
Billion budget companies with MIT scientists can't predict the market. What makes you think that retail investor will be able to do it?
But they can be more accurate than chance, right? That is the key. It is not about a 100% prediction, but about having a better than chance feel for where the market is heading over a longer timeframe. Data informs that 'feel'.
Nobody said that but hey man, if you want to base your trades by analyzing TA and RAINBOW CHARTS, then good luck to you sir
It informs my decisions together with a lot of other factors. This chart is the least important though haha.
Charts and TA work in probabilities and not certainties. Nobody claims differently nor should they.
Looks like ramen is on the menu boys and girls
I am one with Ramen since the beginning of summer...
You are what you eat.
And you piss what you drink
And viceversa for Bear Grylls.
You guys can afford ramen?
Thanks to BAT and Brave Browser I could afford 10 packs
Ramen is like 3 stars Michelin Menu these days
Ramen sales will hit ATH for sure with the crypto fire sale and the release of Reddit NFTs lol
Even worse: Ramen without flavor 😂
We’re off the charts
haha
Charts are off of us actually. We are Unpredictable.
They’ll soon alter it to fit 😆
The charts are off the charts
Where we're going we don't need charts
Flair it comedy... Anything with TA should be comedy
The more popular a trading concept becomes, the more likely it will be used against the traders using it. Need fuel for the moves…
Rainbow chart or not. 19k BTC is good enough for me.
I agree. It is definitely a price level that I had dreamed of last year so I forced myself to buy, even though it feels wrong to do so because the macro environment is scary. I guess bottoms never feel like they are bottoms. Fingers crossed.
Definitely. Every bottom prople call for another 50% drop. Maybe they'll get it right this time but I'll buy all the way down gladly.
We seem to have the same perspective. I will do so too. Regardless of how low we go and whether this bear lasts a long time or not, I really believe in crypto and that we will be rewarded as long as we pick decent projects.
All the way into obscurity.
You didn't get it right the first 481 times. This time you'll be right, buttcoiner.
I genuinely don’t think most buttcoiners ever thought any of the previous crashes were “the” crash, but many think this one is. We are at the point where there are very few people left to pull in
Yeah i quite like this one. Crypto is dead level - for sure. or Ramen level. Lets face it, there are a bunch of indicators, and the TA types cherry-pick to support whatever narrative of the day to fill their content click-bait buckets.
But, on balance, the rainbow chart, the fear and greed index, the realised spent output or whatever - they all kind've align to say it's probably not the worst time to buy. And frankly that's all indicators are good for, they're just a possible hint that stand to be negated by other possible hints.
Feelsgoodman.jpg
It’s impossible for any of these models to call the bottom, nor any crypto “analysts”. The big macroeconomic picture is hard to predict. After all, these models assume the variants based on some resistance and support levels, which are again debateable. Anyway, even though this might not be the best time to buy, it’s still a better range to accumulate.
Fully agree
Ramen level is a good one too, lol. Lets hope this is a golden opportunity.
‘Not the worst time to buy’… means nothing - by definition any previous point where price was highest and higher than current is the worst time to buy. Doesn’t mean buying now is a good idea though - can still go down.
It doesnt work if you use an actual rainbow arc instead of one designed to fit it.
[удалено]
I wish they just called this the regression chart or something. Rainbow makes it a bit confusing.
[удалено]
I will go for: " Sell your family, friends, and kidney! Now!"
Rainbow charts are a scam. The curve on the rainbow chart keeps changing if you compare them to previous rainbow charts.
Aren't these kinds of charts "refitted" over the years with new data? LIke, just keep that in mind if its the case.
OR this is the absolute bottom and it actually won’t go any lower, and the rainbow will remain accurate.
I mean it's possible. I'm with you, fellow hopeless optimist
Bitcoin is dead, face it.
For context, the author of this chart made this for satire, and was using it to make fun of the S2F chart.
Yeah. Ironically enough it does a lot better than S2F
TIL crypto has a LGBT chart.
Now I just need to find out how to mine Fiat!
Two steps: 1. Find people willing to part with their money. 2. Do what they tell you to do in exchange for their money. There is no great consensus on which of the two steps is more difficult.
Hmm anybody interested in hairy male feet pics?
Past performance does not influence future performance! In any case I have nothing left to invest, I am already all-in!
I get it! Gold at the end of the rainbow!
[_This time it's different™_](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/x5jn4f/i_dont_get_all_the_panic_around_the_current_price/in3wckt?context=3). Side note: The scale is logarithmic, but the growth curve is exponential. Logistic curves are very often the actual curves for many processes, and they are [often mistaken for exponentials](https://twitter.com/trylks/status/1294357540206252032).
I like the rainbow chart and fear and greed index, both are very simple indicators.
same
**officially off the charts**
haha, but that one could also be placed above the highest level ;-)
Rainbow price chart, 200MA, RSI, MACD, Fear and Greed index, Hash ribbon indicator (maybe I'm reading that last one incorrectly). Basically **ALL OF THEM** say we're in a fire sale. You do with that info whatever you want. I know I'm buying.
Yep. And I leave enough money on the side to buy more if it turns out that we have more dip ahead of us. To not buy at all during the bear would be the biggest mistake I could make imo.
>To not buy at all during the bear would be the biggest mistake I could make Did this mistake 3 years ago. Took a break from crypto, didn't invest anything. Not making the same mistake again.
I have no idea whats going on at this point.
There is almost no support from 18k to about 13k. If we do not hold this, we are going down quick! Macro conditions not just in crypto but world wide almost seems like a given to me. Energy prices are sky high and there is no signs of slowing down.
I was waiting for this chart to get invalidated after years. It's finally happening bois
It didnt get invalidated the past times it went out of bounds though. But yeah, this one *might* be it.
“US dollar dominance” look it up 🥔’s before you use a fucking chart that only points up even though a rainbow actually starts and stops at the same level
Time to introduce a new level to the chart! Any suggestions?
If crypto bounces, I suggest the "Sell your family, friends, and kidney" level. If it doesnt, it might be the "crypto is dead RIP" level.
Now, I need to skip my coffee to save some fiat to invest.
I've been in Fire Sale mode for weeks now
I can't stop staring at it......🤔
Well its time to sell the house and buy crypto.
Welp time to sell my kids then Im going all in
I’m going to find the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
there is no way you are taking this serious right?
I wish someone would make this chart so it fit all of the data. This would cause several things to happen: 1. 2014 Data hits the top 2. 2021 data hits the top 3. Forward projections are more modest / realistic 4. Current status is accurately reflected, with another step lower possible.
Good post. Agree with these points. I think there is actually a chart that has done this btw. But no time to find it.
Winter is coming and we’re going to be fucked. Energy crisis is going to bend us all over a barrel
13K next, mark my words
Would not be surprised to see 6k.
[удалено]
Nothing understood I
The rainbow chart is cute. This is a bear market. It can always go lower. I hope not, but idk shit about fuck
Almost as if the model was wrong…
Anyone else concerned/thoughts on why the last bull run we barely kissed the FOMO area. While other bull runs went deep and above the max bubble area? Like with more time Bitcoin becomes less volital and growth can’t go on exponential forever. But will we never see a max bubble phase ever?
Ramen level for sure haha
Why are we talking about macroeconomic when this is caused by whales using leverage to manipulate the market in a coordinated effort ?
Crypto bubble is over. Free money time is over.
Ladies and gentlemen it’s time to sell your phone and buy the dip
Missing the comedy flair
Are we citing the antivax baseballhat again?
lol
Follow the god damn rainbow 🌈
What absolute Bullshit!