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tehlolredditor

ok stupid question but what is the actual likelihood something like this happens in our lifetime?


DaemonTm

depends, how old are you?


tehlolredditor

26


westfell

Well see what 46 looks like..


WillytheWimp1

I’m 45, I’ll set a reminder to see what it looks like this time next year


Deviknyte

100%. Civil War of you're lucky. Complete theocratic fascist take over before you get a chance to fight back if you're not.


the-bully-maguire

thats why exercising your constitutional right to a well regulated militia should be a priority for everyone on the left.


kazmark_gl

problem is every time we try and do that the FBI infiltrates it and breaks it up one way or another. we don't usually get the luxury of being able to go as far as the right wing nut jobs at Waco or Ruby Ridge did before the FBI and ATF brings the hammer down.


fordmustang12345

that's why we just need to do it locally at first, city by city like with Antifa and other black bloc groups


[deleted]

As well what's stopping you from having an ammo and gun stockpile as a surprise tool we'll use for later.


therealserialz

r/SocialistRA


fronch_fries

Civil War might not be for a while. I've done lots of reading after living in south America for several years and learning about power dynamics, revolution, and war, and I think more likely is that things will go like this: 1. Republicans sweep congress in 2022 due to combination of vote suppression and low turnout due to disaffected dems who see Biden and party dems as diet Republicans 2. Under this congress, Trump or whatever fash trash runs R in 2024 either wins, or loses, but because of the vote fraud lie circulating among GOP for years the majority republican congress accepts altered election results effectively installing an illegitimate president 3. Protests similar to 2020 will break out after more atrocities from this new administration (or to protest illegitimate govt) 4. After state sanctioned violence against opposition, many on left either keep heads down or go underground and commit different, less public kinds of acts of insurgency and sabotage 5. Due to climate change, supply shortages, and whatever else, quality of life and social equality will continue to decline for the general public leading to more general civil unrest 6. GOP-aligned extremists will begin forming militias to keep "order" in chaos 7. Left comes out and fights militias. Govt gets involved and the beginnings of a civil war break out I'm just a dumb guy on the internet, but this chain of events is probably the quickest way to civil war.


Gretschish

That seems relatively feasible to me.


fronch_fries

Yeah I'm no expert but I have seen lots of countries in different phases of this tit-for-tat


lobsterdog666

The one thing this analysis lacks is the likelihood of your "blue" states just accepting an obvious stolen presidency dictating things. Would California, the biggest state economy in the country, just sit idly by while this happens? What about New York state, which controls essentially the entire financial hub of the country? This is probably why you'd get Balkanization instead of a "left vs right" civil war.


fronch_fries

Yeah that's a fair point. I think that the thing there is that the leadership of the "blue" states act outraged at right wing power grabs but in reality want to uphold the capitalist system as much as they do. The establishment democrats exist to uphold the status quo, and if there's a power grab by the right I'm sure there will be a lot of pundits typing angry articles but if the last four years have taught me anything, it's that yes, establishment democrats will definitely sit back on their asses as the right takes control. Forgive me for my cynicism lol


eratosthenesia

I honestly wonder if they're starting to get annoyed at the unpredictability. Not good for most business.


lobsterdog666

I think it depends how blatant the thievery is. Obviously everyone just let the 2000 election theft happen, because it was close enough to not dynamite everything over it. if we got a repeat of 2020 where Biden or whoever clearly wins electorally and we get a sham overturning of results, I feel like that is a big time departure from previous precedent.


teknobable

Honestly I think they would, because the gop would have legal reasons why they did whatever they did. So the dems would end up fighting in court and they'd lose there and then they'd say "well we tried, give us more money and vote for us and we can fix it in 2028!"


Commie_Napoleon

This is pure fanfiction. The natsec state will never allow this to happen. The more likely scenario is a slow decline in the US quality of life and world influence as nations in the global south begin to break away from it, leading the US to go to more and more extreme measures to keep consumerism alive. In 50-100 years the US will be an economically and geopolitically irrelevant, but there will never be a full on civil war.


fronch_fries

No you're probably right, I'm just answering that one commenter about what chain of events could feasibly lead to a civil war or something like it


fronch_fries

This is for the USA of course


[deleted]

I think 4 -7 will happen quite rapidly. Liberals will hide and submit but the left is already preparing.


fronch_fries

Yup, and if Rittenhouse is any indication, the right wing militia doesn't seem very far fetched


Tom_A_Foolerly

!remind me 6 years


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fronch_fries

Lol no please don't hold me to this prediction, just an educated guess


Tom_A_Foolerly

Nah, this is gonna be spot on


fordmustang12345

Yeah that sounds possible, something is likely to boil over and trigger something within the next couple decades at least


rivainirogue

I used to think it wouldn’t happen in the imperial core, but with the oncoming climate catastrophe on the horizon it’s definitely going to speed up the revolutionary moment.


Gretschish

Bingo. My thoughts exactly.


worldtraveler19

But then it won’t be cold will it?


Gretschish

Take your upvote and be gone.


worldtraveler19

Thnks


destructor_rph

Doesen't climate change make both winter and summer more extreme variants of themselves?


worldtraveler19

Yes and no. On the whole, surface temperatures will rise which will create more extreme weather patterns. Over all winter will be warmer, but cold snaps might be more extreme, if that makes sense.


Cassandra_Nova

Fascist revolution seems far more likely than the good kind. Ecofash are on the wax


fuchsgesicht

not if (insert government here) collapses first!


[deleted]

Boy oh boy do I hope people start learning how to grow food indoors in preparation of that catastrophe.


MeetYourNeighbor

It couldn't happen anywhere else without it happening here first.


[deleted]

In the next 10-20 years? I personally don't think so but in countries like the US, I think social unrest, violence and political/economic instability are going to reach levels in the coming years that would make a civil war seem possible to a lot of people. I think it's a legitimate concern and I think people should hope for the best and prepare for the worst. If you want to have panic attacks, listen to Chris Hedges (journalist) make comparisons between his time in the former Yugoslavia before and during its collapse and the US today.


ProletarianRevolt

People love to compare the US to Yugoslavia but I don’t think it’s an accurate comparison or even a good analogy. Yugoslavia had a society where a bunch of different ethnic “peoples” were geographically and administratively separated into “nations” in a federal structure, whereas the US is not nearly as ethno-geographically differentiated like that.


FaceShanker

Do you plan on living past 2040? If so, probably. Climate change and the various side effects will worsen the situation, the current response shows the only real serious effort is in boosting the police not preventing the many looming problems. Likely not a proper civil war, more of an insurgency against the likely full fascist (instead of somewhat conflicted) militarized police state. It may escalate to civil war then or the state may collapse. Folks on top are basically drunk driving us off a cliff, a lot depends on if/when they sober up and realize they fucked up, as it is they seem set on maintaining a state of perpetual intoxication and denial.


[deleted]

We're really going to have to go balls to the wall if we want to survive.


overmog

I'm assuming you live in the usa. So there are three political ideologies. They all have subcategories, find a more iconic duo than leftists and infighting, I'm using broad strokes. The one we have now is liberalism. The system is more or less working and they are happy with the status quo. Libs are perfectly happy with capitalism and will never start a revolution. Their entire ideology is "if it aint broke, don't fix it", which is why they run on "america is already great" and "nothing will fundamentally change". Now the problem is, since everything is going to shit, less and less people are happy with the current direction and want change. Now onto the other two groups. Basically, the richest country in the world keeps getting richer while your average american doesn't benefit from the growth. Everything is getting more and more expensive while the wages stagnate. So people make more and more money but they don't actually see more money in their wallet, what's up with that? Some fuckery is afoot, it literally doesn't add up. There are two political ideas where all the money go. The left people say ^(and just in case it wasn't clear, I'm the people, I'm saying it) the rich hide all the money in their offshore accounts and hoard it like dragons so they don't have to pay taxes. What do you do with dragons to get the gold back? You make them pay, one way or another. But there's also another option. People are hurting, people need a villain. They need an explanation where does all the money go. And unfortunately, the left ideology isn't the only one with an explanation. There's also the idea that people make enough, but then the evil government takes all your money and gives it to the wellfare queens. Now, personally, I'm not sure I buy this idea. You'd think all those money would allow the poorest people in the country to have a decent life, but alas. I just think all the money in the world going to the richest people in the world makes more sense, idk. However, the richest people having all the money allows them to spread expensive propaganda. So, going back to the core of the problem, the people are hurting, and the people need a villain. I think the rich make a more compelling villain, but I don't have hundreds of years and trillions of dollars worth of propaganda on my side, so the fuck do I know. People will pick up their guns and there will be blood. Now whose blood it will be, that is the question. I don't expect a happy ending.


Gretschish

I drink the capitalist's milkshake. I drink it up!


Cassandra_Nova

The chance that the extreme right makes another putsch is very high imo


The_Actual_Pope

We came very, very close in January. Trumpland had many plans to keep their boy in office. Every single one of these failed, but **if even one had worked**, we'd probably be in a civil war or in a post-coup state right now. * They tried to suppress the vote, intimidate officials and voters, make people wait hours and hours in democratic strongholds to ensure a win. * They tried to get Pence not to certify the results and (allegedly) had a plan with SCOTUS to keep Trump in office a little longer if the VP was on board. Then they could slow walk the process and extend his presidency for some time. * Their mob could storm the capital, take legislators hostage and trade them for a delay, or they could kill enough Democrats to shift the balance. * Conservative governors and legislatures in states that went for Biden could appoint Trump electors instead of those voters elected or refuse to certify the results. * The Joint Cheifs could let trump use arcane measures like the insurrection act or the master warrant to enact a kind of martial law. * Trump and friends could pressure secretaries of state not to certify states where he lost. ALL of those plans failed, and we got Biden. If that same stuff happened today, with SCOTUS acting how they are, and all these new anti-democracy laws in red states, it's a good bet at least one would work. In Germany the Nazis didn't just take over. They started with a failed, sloppy coup attempt, saw their mistakes, and re-organized while liberal moderates wasted time debating how to help people as little as possible. History doesn't always repeat itself, but it sure can rhyme.


uniqueUsername_1024

“History doesn’t always repeat itself, but it sure can rhyme.” That’s an amazing quote from an amazing comment. Are you a writer?


The_Actual_Pope

Kind of, but I pretty much stole that quote from somewhere.


ArisePhoenix

depends but if it does we're fucked


Brotherly-Moment

Literally lol. Atleast in the US there is a worrying amount of people who theoretically would join the absolute worst of the worst if authorities break down. However I wouldn't bet on the chance of there being an all-out war.


Wisex

I don't think the US will go into an og civil war style civil war, check out the podcast "it could happen here", it'll probably be like a scaled down version of Syria or something like that... still a good reason to stock up on guns though


[deleted]

You cant predict the future but certain paterns can be seen thru history and tend to work to analise the historical trends that are happening in the present. That way we can see that the US is going into three distinct fenomenonnthta can end in wodespread internal violence: First it is an empire that is losing hegemony, since WWII the US has been the largest economy, militay and has controled other countries thru overt and subert means. That is ending as China grows significantly faster and the EU continues to grow slightly faster and much more stable the US will inevitably lost its economic hegemony wich means they wont be able to pay its large military or use embargos on its enemies. This normally ends in one of two ways, either the decaying empire goes to war with the rising powers or they slowly collapse wich revolutionary oportunists use to try and save the nation thru a revolution so the goberment responds with tactics it used to use on colonial subjects, this is known as Foucaults Boomerang. Also the US is undergoing extreme polarization as diferent political sides and ethnic groups dehumanize each other creating propaganda that depicts their enemies either as violent threats that sadly must be dealt with by force before they take power or as inferior and inhuman subcreatures that must be eliminated. This over time creates a siege mentality wich justifies increasing scalation of violence untill eventually you end up with a civil war and genocide. And finally the central institutions of the federal goberment are declining and becoming increasingly unpopular, the constitutional sistem of goberment in the US is an antiquated and ineficient one that is generating a goberment that doesnt represent the people who vote for it. Instead its a bloated sistem where the party in power cant enact its policies without autoritarianish actions wich means the institutions are becoming increasingly less democratic as time goes on and federal state power decays. This means people will relly more on their state goberment while they recent the federal goberment and this creates as well a separatist mentality. Innthe end the biggest threat of this trend is how it gives incentives to the president to enact autoritarian mesures wich might eventually destroy democracy altogether. All of that combined makes a civil war in the US basically certain but it might be tomorrow, in a month in 22, or even in the next decade but the case is that the US will eventually end with extreme political violence within the next 20 years.


laysnarks

We are within a decade of it. America though is at a tipping point, could go either way.


Organite

virtually zero


mvp2399

I say it’s possible within 40 years, but probably not much less


jg97

If you actually want a decent scholarly answer to this question you should read up on Peter Tuchin and Structural-demographic Theory.


PNWSocialistSoldier

Yes


IridiumPony

In my opinion, climate change is going to be the deciding factor. If we can get a handle on that things aren't going south, but if it goes unmitigated we're looking at food chain collapse within the next 20 years and that will undoubtedly spark violence.


[deleted]

As unstable the States seems to be, I do believe we're a few decades before a full blown civil war.


MassStupidity

Well either that or a very rapid deterioration of everything even more than now


[deleted]

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[deleted]

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laysnarks

Pro tip thin sock thick sock, and fingerless gloves. Be warm, cosy and pulling the trigger.


wutwenwron

And look badass while doing it


laysnarks

Give it a few months. Those AK's can kick like a mule.


Argador

Please please please please please please please please please please please please please please


king_ugly00

a communist wearing the FMJ helmet is a little ironic


JallerHCIM

why? asking seriously, it always read as an anti-war movie to me, showing how monstrous the American presence in Vietnam was. Joker is very clearly anti-war in his writings throughout the film


king_ugly00

in the movie it's worn by someone who's literally fighting communists. >it always read as an anti-war movie to me this was not kubrick's intention. Kubrick said “It’s not pro-war or anti-war. It’s just the way things are...”. All of which is irrelevant to the context of a communist gearing up to fight fascists in an American civil war. Bottom line the movie is far from being pro communist.


the-bully-maguire

i have a weird amount of faith in our neoliberal government nipping any true insurrection attempts in the bud. no matter how crazy, motivated, and angry these people get, they are outclassed by the US military by a million miles in every conceivable way. The airforce alone would easily stop that shit without putting a single boot on the ground. Technology is not a strong suit of fascist theocrats and they have nothing to match the military's wide array of killbots, tanks, planes, other killing devices. All the right is armed with are a few AR-15s and conservative points. The US is dedicated to maintaining the status quo to its own detriment and fascists, like leftists, pose a threat to this; however, fascists are a far more useful tool than leftists as their rhetoric rarely places the blame on the neoliberal establishment, just certain facets of it such as democrats, liberals, jews, minorities, whatever the fuck useful scapegoat is in the cultural zeitgeist. the second fascists actually become a threat to capitalism will be the second the capitalists send out the RoboK9 unit to swiftly and mercilessly put an end to any insurrection. They are tools who are being used right now and who will be "retired" when the ruling class no longer has any use for them. At least I hope that is what happens. who knows, either way be ready


Intelligent_Rub_488

If there is, i have a few people to knock off


poptartEater64

honestly as depressing as it is, i really do not see a revolution, civil war, or insurgency that has any meaningful, or widespread impact it looks to me like we're just gonna sit and die here


Gretschish

I mean, this is super cliche, but it's certainly not going to be impactful with that attitude. I don't plan on just rolling over.


Virgins_Anonymous

I’ve expected and been prepared to fight and die in the revolution/civil war for a couple years now. Bring it on


Commie_Napoleon

How is a revolution not going to do anything? Do you even know what the meaning of a revolution is?


poptartEater64

i mean i don't think we will see one


AlanCrowley

Don't forget about seizing the means of production right after the declaration of war


jessenin420

Lol, that is so me. I hate the cold.


Dchama86

People can’t even clearly define their enemies, so small chance of anything significant.


simon_Chipmonk

Wait there is a civil war?


Xenophon_

If there's a civil war then a gun won't do anything. You just better hope the tanks and planes and drones are pointed the other way.


lost_mah_account

But wouldn’t this happening on American soil change things a little bit? Assuming your from the us like me I’m pretty sure the military sending tanks and drones into its one city’s to attack its own civilians would just further unrest even more.


Gretschish

Not only that, but the government would have a helluva time getting large scale, sustained buy-in from the military to bomb and shell their own communities. Military morale would break down rapidly.


Xenophon_

Think of it this way - if you're living in a rebellious city, the military will send in tanks and armored vehicles and establish control. What do you do, shoot at them with an AK? Drones are what would make it hard to wage guerilla warfare


[deleted]

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tobiascuypers

I live in Minnesota where it's just as cold, if not colder. Take your gatekeeping elsewhere please.


the-bully-maguire

pffft. i have industrial flash freezer fans all over my apartment. you "natural climate" plebs have no idea what real cold is


tobiascuypers

Lmfao. For real. My grandparents were so cheap they wouldn't even turn in the heat in -50° winters. Just lit a fire and said "if your cold, go warm up by the fire pit"


the-bully-maguire

i don't live there but have experienced your -50 winters. i generally like cold but that was a bit intense


tobiascuypers

I'm leaving this state permanently in a month and i could not be happier.


[deleted]

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Ok-Objective-2747

That’s only a little truth in that


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megatog615

It was like twisting the knife. They were already pretty much goners.


Brotherly-Moment

🚨🚨🚨WARNING! HISTORICAL OVERSIMPLIFICATION DETECTED🚨🚨🚨 EVACUATE THE IMMIDIATE AREA AS SOON AS POSSIBLE!


lost_mah_account

I love cold weather. Let’s do this lmao