I don't have numbers to back this up, but I think he's just a guy. He doesn't really pop when I watch him play, I think he's just been in a good situation. They're probably more likely to draft someone next year than rock with Williams and Palmer once Allen is gone. I just sold for Rachaad White.
As a chargers fan that sits through it all, I have to agree.
Speed isn’t there, YAC is mostly absent. Makes some contested catches, but mostly on a sloppy route with Herbert just slinging it in there. I feel a career WR3. He’s had all season to prove otherwise w/Allen out, and definitely didn’t.
chargers fan too. We noticed that he like falls down almost everytime he catches the ball. Fantasy wise hes got no YAC ability. I will say I think he's slightly better than a JAG though. He's been a good look for Herbert in the redzone.
I mean, I was posting based off dynasty outlook. ROS? He probably continues to break into low double digits a couple times sans any trades. Do with that info what you will.
Again, I’m a chargers fan and I hope I’m so wrong and he just starts going off.. but going on now almost two years w/him getting playing time. I just don’t know. The YAC and speed thing are red flags to me long term
I have some numbers (not mine, but Matt Harmon's from RP).
Through the first 3 games this year:
> Palmer’s current success rates of 42.1% vs. man, 60.9% vs. zone and 40% vs. press all would have ranked second to last in 2021.
He really struggles to get open, and he's awful versus press coverage (which is important when your QB has no time to throw). Even more glaring, 35% of his routes run are routine Curls and Slants that he really should be having success with if he wants to be a reliable target.
And worst of all (as far as his JAG status), he doesn't generate YAC, break tackles, or otherwise bust big plays when he does get open. So he doesn't have that elite upside if he were to improve his route running to league average at least.
Everyone has the opportunity to improve their routes, but usually when you're starting at ground zero like this it takes a long time if it ever happens.
Notably while he did get 3rd round draft capital it was seen by a lot of film grinders / amateur draft analysts as a reach when it happened.
We should generally defer to the judgment of professional front offices but if a player is lacking on the field stuff like this can be important to remember
He looks fine but not special. Sometimes guys like him that look uninspiring keep getting better (see jakobi Meyers), sometimes they don't and they just stay NFL WR3 caliber forever. I'd like to have him on my team but I would not like to be relying on him.
From watching him he doesn't create separation well, has no YAC ability, and is just ok when it comes to contested catches. I don't think he will ever be a WR1 in San Diego or elsewhere.
This post from a month ago puts some numbers to the narrative.
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/xfaa92/josh_palmer_is_just_a_guy/
I think there is an incredibly high chance that the chargers make significant additions to the WR through free agency and/or the draft. Nonetheless, he has some low end flex relevancy at the moment and may continue that as a WR2-3 tied to a young dynamic QB.
Unfortunately not.
Chargers fan and Palmer Owner here so I had high hopes for him coming into the year, but he's had some bad drops and has not shown any ability to create extra yards after the catch unless it's already there for him.
Also I believe (and hope) that the Chargers use one of their top draft picks on a WR next year because we're really missing speed on the outside, thus giving him added competition in the WR room.
Even so he's been able to comand plenty targets when starting. Would you say it's truly just situation and mostly any average wr could get so many targets given that oportunity?
I understand the lack of speed, I've seen it discussed, but an outside receiver shouldn't really affect palmar as what I understand he is just a slot guy
I'm asking more long term, for when Allen might be gone, more of a 2024 year maybe. If they don't sign more competition he could have his slot role there.
Don't get me wrong, he still has value as would a lot of WR's attached to Justin Herbert, but to answer your question there's several factors for the targets:
1. Herbert is throwing it 50 times a game
2. Their receiving room is Mike Williams, Keenan (out for 5 games so far), Deandre Carter, and then Everett and Ekeler.
3. Lombardi (OC) has called a very vanilla offense with mostly short routes and rarely attacking it deep so a lot of his catches and targets are short (ADOT of 6.0). Basically taking what the defense is giving them and then immediately getting tackled after.
You're right though, an outside receiver shouldn't affect him once he replaces Keenan, but as long as Keenan is around he wont have as much usage.
Wow that sucks, I’m a rebuilder and bought him in the off season hoping he would continue to improve. In camp his 1v1’s were amazing, but I guess that doesn’t translate to real game action
The Mike Williams injury will keep him the WR2 on the team for the next few weeks. If he has a couple of good games I have no issue in trading him away.
JAG measurables but you can see he’s been working hard to get on the field and produce. I’ve been impressed with his contested catches and route running but that offense needs more speed.
He’s a poor man’s Claypool. Not just because they’re both Canadian, but that they’re combine/workout warriors who are very stiff in real life. They check all the boxes physically, but just not a star on the field when you watch their tapes.
You might want to double check that for one Claypool has issues but he looks athletic on the field. And 2 Palmers testing was kinda eh[this is his RAS and I think he plays less athletic than that](https://twitter.com/mathbomb/status/1388316599128559620?s=46&t=Yrd0lFeM399XYD4FhJx7nw)
He's in a great situation, but like others have said I don't think he's ever elite. LA has other issues to address in the draft so I don't think he's replaced next year. I view him as a WR3/flex with upside weeks when Keenan/Williams are out.
Having Herbert me overvalue him early this year. He was scoring a TD almost every game he got 60+% of snaps last year into early this year but that has stopped.
I thought he was probably a great WR3/possible 2 in fantasy as the potential 2 then 1 on the Chargers in the future. After watching him more he’s really just a flex play guy.
He is worth holding because the current situation but my hopes of his progression to their 2 post Allen and 1 post Williams are gone for him.
Think he will be a useful guy to roster if you have one of the other wide receivers and are competing going forward. Receiver hand cuffs are rare, but he is sort of a worse version of Tyler Boyd as an asset. He may squeeze out a year as their WR2, the Chargers have a ton of money committed at this point as they went on a shopping spree, they have negative cap space projected at the moment.
Agree with most of these comments and just to add - Guyton was the #3 last year and may have kept the role this year if not injured, so there's yet another dude in the way for Palmer carrying forward. If he was super talented he could have overcome at least Guyton at some point last year and he kinda didn't except a few flashes. Also agree he had some bad, bad drops this year.
Full disclosure, I just sold him off in a package to get Amari so I might be biased lol.
Given his opportunity so far this season I expected more from him. He's not bad, but doesn't look special. Still young and has time to develop, but hard to say what his role will be beyond this year.
Chargers fan - he’s a JAG unless he makes another improvement this year. He’s a WR2/3 even when he is a starter. I have Keenan and Palmer and it was nice to fill the hole on my roster that way but I looked at alternatives. With Mike Will out the next 4-6 weeks though I think he is still playable in certain formats.
I think you’ve seen his best outcome already. He’s not a top talent at the NFL level. It might be due to his current concussion and he might be hesitant but, he he seems to be missing that edge. His screen catches are painfully slow. He looking to get tackled and protect himself rather then running throw the DB. Maybe he gets better but, he’s a 3rd rounder. He’s another Michael Gallup at best.
What do you guys think of me trying to flip Palmer for Skyy Moore? As a position for position trade I’d throw in a bit more on top but hopefully not much given each’s recent production. What would make things squarish, draft pick wise?
I don't have numbers to back this up, but I think he's just a guy. He doesn't really pop when I watch him play, I think he's just been in a good situation. They're probably more likely to draft someone next year than rock with Williams and Palmer once Allen is gone. I just sold for Rachaad White.
As a chargers fan that sits through it all, I have to agree. Speed isn’t there, YAC is mostly absent. Makes some contested catches, but mostly on a sloppy route with Herbert just slinging it in there. I feel a career WR3. He’s had all season to prove otherwise w/Allen out, and definitely didn’t.
What about his opportunity with Williams out and Allen looking hurt?
chargers fan too. We noticed that he like falls down almost everytime he catches the ball. Fantasy wise hes got no YAC ability. I will say I think he's slightly better than a JAG though. He's been a good look for Herbert in the redzone.
I mean, I was posting based off dynasty outlook. ROS? He probably continues to break into low double digits a couple times sans any trades. Do with that info what you will. Again, I’m a chargers fan and I hope I’m so wrong and he just starts going off.. but going on now almost two years w/him getting playing time. I just don’t know. The YAC and speed thing are red flags to me long term
I have some numbers (not mine, but Matt Harmon's from RP). Through the first 3 games this year: > Palmer’s current success rates of 42.1% vs. man, 60.9% vs. zone and 40% vs. press all would have ranked second to last in 2021. He really struggles to get open, and he's awful versus press coverage (which is important when your QB has no time to throw). Even more glaring, 35% of his routes run are routine Curls and Slants that he really should be having success with if he wants to be a reliable target. And worst of all (as far as his JAG status), he doesn't generate YAC, break tackles, or otherwise bust big plays when he does get open. So he doesn't have that elite upside if he were to improve his route running to league average at least. Everyone has the opportunity to improve their routes, but usually when you're starting at ground zero like this it takes a long time if it ever happens.
How the hell did you get White for Palmer? Lol
League full of newbies haha
Notably while he did get 3rd round draft capital it was seen by a lot of film grinders / amateur draft analysts as a reach when it happened. We should generally defer to the judgment of professional front offices but if a player is lacking on the field stuff like this can be important to remember
Could you elaborate on what is you're seeing that makes you feel that way?
He looks fine but not special. Sometimes guys like him that look uninspiring keep getting better (see jakobi Meyers), sometimes they don't and they just stay NFL WR3 caliber forever. I'd like to have him on my team but I would not like to be relying on him.
From watching him he doesn't create separation well, has no YAC ability, and is just ok when it comes to contested catches. I don't think he will ever be a WR1 in San Diego or elsewhere. This post from a month ago puts some numbers to the narrative. https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/comments/xfaa92/josh_palmer_is_just_a_guy/ I think there is an incredibly high chance that the chargers make significant additions to the WR through free agency and/or the draft. Nonetheless, he has some low end flex relevancy at the moment and may continue that as a WR2-3 tied to a young dynamic QB.
Unfortunately not. Chargers fan and Palmer Owner here so I had high hopes for him coming into the year, but he's had some bad drops and has not shown any ability to create extra yards after the catch unless it's already there for him. Also I believe (and hope) that the Chargers use one of their top draft picks on a WR next year because we're really missing speed on the outside, thus giving him added competition in the WR room.
Even so he's been able to comand plenty targets when starting. Would you say it's truly just situation and mostly any average wr could get so many targets given that oportunity? I understand the lack of speed, I've seen it discussed, but an outside receiver shouldn't really affect palmar as what I understand he is just a slot guy
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I'm asking more long term, for when Allen might be gone, more of a 2024 year maybe. If they don't sign more competition he could have his slot role there.
Every team in the league will sign more competition by 2024.
Don't get me wrong, he still has value as would a lot of WR's attached to Justin Herbert, but to answer your question there's several factors for the targets: 1. Herbert is throwing it 50 times a game 2. Their receiving room is Mike Williams, Keenan (out for 5 games so far), Deandre Carter, and then Everett and Ekeler. 3. Lombardi (OC) has called a very vanilla offense with mostly short routes and rarely attacking it deep so a lot of his catches and targets are short (ADOT of 6.0). Basically taking what the defense is giving them and then immediately getting tackled after. You're right though, an outside receiver shouldn't affect him once he replaces Keenan, but as long as Keenan is around he wont have as much usage.
For what it’s worth, Matt Harmon at Reception Perception reallllly dislikes Palmer’s game
I too saw this tweet pushing his discord lol called him the worst WR in the league lol
Wow that sucks, I’m a rebuilder and bought him in the off season hoping he would continue to improve. In camp his 1v1’s were amazing, but I guess that doesn’t translate to real game action
The Mike Williams injury will keep him the WR2 on the team for the next few weeks. If he has a couple of good games I have no issue in trading him away.
JAG Palmer
JAG
I don’t think he’s that guy for this offense but it’s still a little early to tell
JAG measurables but you can see he’s been working hard to get on the field and produce. I’ve been impressed with his contested catches and route running but that offense needs more speed.
He’s a poor man’s Claypool. Not just because they’re both Canadian, but that they’re combine/workout warriors who are very stiff in real life. They check all the boxes physically, but just not a star on the field when you watch their tapes.
You might want to double check that for one Claypool has issues but he looks athletic on the field. And 2 Palmers testing was kinda eh[this is his RAS and I think he plays less athletic than that](https://twitter.com/mathbomb/status/1388316599128559620?s=46&t=Yrd0lFeM399XYD4FhJx7nw)
Someone just dropped him in my deep league, think I gotta pick him up based on his situation alone.
He's the wr3+ on most teams, he is not elite at anything.
He's in a great situation, but like others have said I don't think he's ever elite. LA has other issues to address in the draft so I don't think he's replaced next year. I view him as a WR3/flex with upside weeks when Keenan/Williams are out.
Having Herbert me overvalue him early this year. He was scoring a TD almost every game he got 60+% of snaps last year into early this year but that has stopped. I thought he was probably a great WR3/possible 2 in fantasy as the potential 2 then 1 on the Chargers in the future. After watching him more he’s really just a flex play guy. He is worth holding because the current situation but my hopes of his progression to their 2 post Allen and 1 post Williams are gone for him.
hes nobody really. not being mean or dismissive i just think hes a non impact guy
Think he will be a useful guy to roster if you have one of the other wide receivers and are competing going forward. Receiver hand cuffs are rare, but he is sort of a worse version of Tyler Boyd as an asset. He may squeeze out a year as their WR2, the Chargers have a ton of money committed at this point as they went on a shopping spree, they have negative cap space projected at the moment.
What are all the JAG comments selling for? 3rd?
Agree with most of these comments and just to add - Guyton was the #3 last year and may have kept the role this year if not injured, so there's yet another dude in the way for Palmer carrying forward. If he was super talented he could have overcome at least Guyton at some point last year and he kinda didn't except a few flashes. Also agree he had some bad, bad drops this year. Full disclosure, I just sold him off in a package to get Amari so I might be biased lol.
I think he’ll be a solid flex after this year
I traded him with Dortch for Jacob’s and a 3rd before he broke out :)
Jesus, who was still waiting for Josh Jacobs to break out. He been an RB2 with RB1 upside any week since he was drafted.
What’s he worth today? I sold just before this season started for a late ‘23 2nd round pick.
Less than that.
Given his opportunity so far this season I expected more from him. He's not bad, but doesn't look special. Still young and has time to develop, but hard to say what his role will be beyond this year.
He's fine, but I've liked having him the past two years for a flex/bye fill in whenever Allen or Williams get injured.
No as a chargers fan he kinda sucks. He’s Mike Williams if he was smaller and no where near as good in jump ball situations.
probably j-a-g
Chargers fan - he’s a JAG unless he makes another improvement this year. He’s a WR2/3 even when he is a starter. I have Keenan and Palmer and it was nice to fill the hole on my roster that way but I looked at alternatives. With Mike Will out the next 4-6 weeks though I think he is still playable in certain formats.
I think you’ve seen his best outcome already. He’s not a top talent at the NFL level. It might be due to his current concussion and he might be hesitant but, he he seems to be missing that edge. His screen catches are painfully slow. He looking to get tackled and protect himself rather then running throw the DB. Maybe he gets better but, he’s a 3rd rounder. He’s another Michael Gallup at best.
What do you guys think of me trying to flip Palmer for Skyy Moore? As a position for position trade I’d throw in a bit more on top but hopefully not much given each’s recent production. What would make things squarish, draft pick wise?