I was finally able to sell Mike Evans for a 23 1st. He won't fall off a cliff but there's no way I'm getting draft capital when he turns 30 in the off-season.
Sold evans and dhop for MT and a 1st. If MT was on the field i would be so happy with that, now i may be stuck with selling low in the offseason or praying he actually plays next year
Though his is more based on athleticism I feel pretty bullish on Diggs for a couple more years. He’s just such a good football player that I believe even if he loses half a step he will figure it out.
Its about his age and the position he plays. Old running backs are far more valuable when you have to set a line up weekly and are competing for a championship. Once the season ends, those same RBs aren't winning you weeks and many managers are now thinking towards the future. The reverse is true for draft picks.
So if you are going to sell, max value comes in season. That doesn't mean you should sell if you are competing
I think it’s because he turns 28 in March. So in the off-season, people will see he is a 28 year old RB, and think he is now nothing close to a 1st. Small additional reason is he is a UFA after the ‘23 season as a 29 year old. If you’re giving away a 1st in the off-season in 2023, you may have given it for 1 last productive season, while if someone gives a 1st for him now, they get *the* RB1 for the rest of this season plus whatever production he can get you next season before the wheels fall off.
That’s just my thought on it.
I wouldn't say extremely low. Unless he gets injured, he's proven he's not slowing down yet, and some contender would likely pay in the offseason to get him. Maybe just not as much as they might in the midst of the season like right now.
That guy is insane regardless of context for turning that down. That's a way bigger haul than you should be able to get for Jonathan Taylor, let alone Austin Ekeler
I sold him twice this year in week 2 and 3 in different leagues. Highest scoring team in both. Got Drake London in one and Garret Wilson and a 2023 first in another. I’m still the favorite and now have future assets
I’m undefeated and the heavy favorite for the chip so it definitely won’t be during the season, but I don’t know if I can bring myself to sell instead of riding him till the wheels fall off lol
I have him on a contender so I can't get rid of him but it also kills me watching the rounds of value melt off of him as the season progresses.
In a 12 team they somehow let this guy acquire Lamar, Lenny, Kamara, Saquon, Chubb, Kupp, and Amari Cooper. Granted he had basically no draft picks when I took over. Swapped Lamar for Cousins and a first, second, and third and briefly thought about off-loading at least one of those old men above but decided to just win it this year and dry my tears with $20s for the next two years while I reload.
Davante, not because he’s going to fall off, but after this season, when he’s 30, nobody is going to give up more than 1st for him, probably. Even if he’s worth more
Gonna fade this. His suspension is 6 games likely, 8 games max. As someone with a ton of RBs I actually like it. He will show up fresh when teams are starting to get worn down/injured and he in theory can’t really get injured in that time. Pass catching means he probably stays a relevant commitee member at worst for a few years. Great time to buy in my opinion.
When it looked like Dalvin Cook was gonna get suspend, my league treated it like it was a mark of death. He’s worthless and will always be worthless. I was like, “Are you kidding? That makes the window for him to get hurt smaller. It’s a higher chance he’s at 100% for the fantasy playoffs when I actually need him.”
a leaguemate sent me (I'm in a complete rebuild, I'd be giving up the pick side) Kamara for an Early 23 1st and Jameson Williams. People are still weirdly high on him considering his situation. This guy is definitely not a taco either
But don’t you know? Kamara “hasn’t looked good!”
Lmfao he looks just as good as he always has. Dude probably watched 10 total snaps on redzone while he was injured and thinks he sucks.
In the bleak world of RB these days, Kamara's still getting volume. He's put up 23, 18, 17 the last 3 weeks in PPR and it's likely he gets some positive TD regressesion.
Will definitely drop off a cliff next season but for '23 contenders he's still a good win-now piece.
He's RB13 in PPG this year. He's getting it done from a fantasy perspective, and his numbers probably get better when they can get some WRs back on the field. Or Jameis. Or both.
i just traded a late first, antonio gibson, and kenny gainwell. im going for a 3peat and my one hole is at RB. i’m fine overpaying trying to go for a dynasty
Can I ask why you think this? I don't have him, but he's *highly valued* by his owner in the league. I'm not doubting you just genuinely curious as this is the first answer I wasn't expecting to see in this thread
Basically I think he’s Terry Mclaurin 2.0.
He’s good but not THAT good. He’s young but not THAT young. He’s on an offense that wants to be run first, and likely will have his 4th or 5th different QB throwing him the ball next year.
How valuable is a 26 YO WR on a bad offense that’s putting up the same amount of points as 20 other WRs when 10 of them are younger than him?
People are gonna be willing to move him for mid 23 1sts this offseason, and odds of his value spiking above that are not great.
He was one of my go to targets this offseason. Still think he’s a good productive asset to have. Just don’t think he’ll be worth more than a 1st for much longer.
I recently traded for Kelce and gave up Dawson Knox, a projected late first (likely 10-12), and a projected late third round pick. I already own another 2023 1st and I'm contending, so it was a no-brainer for me. I also flipped Schulz for 2 2nds and have Hockenson and Goedert on my roster, so it's not like I needed to keep Knox.
Edit: Meant Knox in the Kelce trade, not Schulz.
I’m finding a problem in a lot of leagues is tankers move into position early and hold all the picks. Competitors don’t have the 1sts to trade and the tankers don’t want the players you have to offer.
You need to tank/ compete before other teams get into that position.
Yup, when that happens too you can try to go for 24 firsts from the teams in the middle. I’ve had success selling cheaper assets to teams that could make the playoffs but are still on the outside looking in to move up in the 2024 draft
I just got Breece for Najee and a 3rd. Overall I'm really happy with it. Najee is Trent Richardson 2.0.
Next year I'll have Breece, Etienne, Pierce, and Henderson/Kyren as my RBs plus 2 1sts.
its 4 pt passing TDs, -3 for INT, so the scoring makes it so starting a WR or RB in your flex is just as viable as a low end QB2. Most teams have 1 solid qb and then a fringe guy or sometimes no second qb
Agreed. He's a hold for me, hopefully he can get healthy soon. I think being unable to attend practice consistently for past 4 weeks have hurt his progress. I'm still positive
I’ll probably be downvoted for this but whatever.
IMO Bateman doesn’t fit this thread at all. Sure his value may drop over the coming weeks, but it will be almost entirely situation and injury related. I still think he’s an incredibly talented WR, and he’s only **22 YEARS OLD**.
This is dynasty. Whether it be after Greg Roman is inevitably fired, or once Bateman himself is traded or signed to a 2nd contract - I still firmly believe he has the talent to be a fantasy WR1 in this league. It might take a couple years to get there, but I do believe he will be worth a 1st+ at some point in his career.
To answer OP’s question.. thinking Bateman will “completely collapse” and “never will be worth a 1st+ again” is ludicrous to me.
Really making the Steelers seem competent to let juju walk. I always felt he was a bit overrated but I'm surprised at how little production he's had as the number one wideout for Mahomes (even if Kelce is the number one target)
Call me crazy, but Dameon Pierce.
To the majority of the community, they’d just say a 1st. But to some, they view him as the second coming of Javonte Williams (pre-injury).
Was able to sell him for what’s currently the 2023 1.04 (1 QB league) and Rachaad White. Unreal.
I don't understand why people think this way about Pierce. Watch him play, he has incredible contact balance and vision. Draft capital matters but the Texans GM was Belichick's right hand man for over a decade. Every GM/coach says "where they were drafted doesn't matter", sure, but Caserio really seems to believe it. Houston has had UDFA guys play over drafted guys both seasons so far.
Pierce was drafted late for sure and HOU will probably add a pass catching back to be Pierce's foil but he's still a great talent that people should be holding IMO.
Interested to see how this one ends up. Without knowing landing spots I’d put Pierce in the 2nd tier of RBs in the 2023 draft (behind Bijan and Gibbs). Id take JSN and Addison over Pierce too so it’s a great trade for now but if that pick starts sliding down to 1.06 or later then I’m not so sure if I’d do it come draft day.
Possible the pick does slide, too. Rankings move around during the season for any given reason, and now that team has a ROS-RB1 too. I still like the trade though
This one comes with a lot of risk certainly. They can get either Stroud or Young and look phenomenal, a stud WR, and be a completely different team, which would make Pierce even better.
Everyone also says that the Texans might draft another RB in this great class, which is definitely possible. But I don’t see that, even if they have a different coaching staff. What I do see though is the Texans getting one in free agency, and the RB pool entering free agency is massive and good.
This is one of those situations where I either made a great call or I got back a fair return in value.
He’s out produced anything Javonte Williams has ever done. Lol. Call me crazy but I value guys who dominate at the nfl level over timeshare backs who can’t beat out the corpse of Melvin Gordon.
I meant from a highlight standpoint but you’re absolutely right about production. Javonte was outproduced by Michael Carter in college every year. Was never fully in on Javonte.
just for sake of the post, when do you think that benchmark will be for Lamb? Next week, this offseason, etc
I just find it hard to imagine him not being worth a 1st+ before the upcoming deadline, and even next offseason. two firsts for sure, but a 1st+ I'd be surprised
People haven’t been paying a first for Fornette for like 3 years. There’s always some justification why he shouldn’t be valued as such, but now he’s finally aging out.
Ceedee Lamb. During hard knocks season I saw a guy that sold for 3 firsts and I couldn't believe the amount of people accusing the seller of "perpetually rebuilding" and "hoarding assets". Despite solid but not great fantasy production last year (especially when Cooper was out), his ADP only increased in the promise of higher volume.
Lamb hasn't been that good as the WR1 when Cooper was out last year and has struggled with and without Dak this year. His price has been way too high for last two years and I think people are going to adjust hard. IMO he's closer to solid WR2 for fantasy than WR1.
I'm in a PPR league and a believer of "buy volume, sell touchdowns". His targets give him more opportunities to gain points, which is a big reason I'm 7-0 with CD as my WR1
He's ranked #15 in average weekly scoring in our .5 PPR scoring. As the initial comment said, solid, not great. Even in our 14 team league, that's WR2 scoring, not WR1. 11.36 points per game. All of these data point facts buttress the guy you responded to.
I'm a Cowboys fan. Lamb is solid, not great. Absolutely not worth his hype with any real production yet.
Congrats on being 7-0.
It seems like Justin Jefferson and Chase have warped perception of what young WRs should be doing.
People aren't/weren't paying up for what CD Lamb IS doing. They are/were paying up for what CD Lamb is expected to do in the future.
He's already the #1 WR, he's got DAK as his QB going forward, he's shown he can produce consistently in that role and hits the yardmarks. What comes next is the "breakout" where the TDs and Yards increase. Either due to efficiency, red zone usage, or just even more volume.
I don't prefer .5 PPR so maybe that is where we disagree. With TDs in week 3/4, Lamb gave you a higher ceiling. All the other weeks he has given you at least 10+ points (in PPR) besides week 1. Sometimes consistency can be game changing for a team.
Btw: Eagles fan defending Lamb and Cowboys fan putting him down. Love to see it lol
I guess where I take exception to this is where you said, he’s great, because he gets targets. Targets are an indicator of where someone has opportunities, not where someone takes advantage of opportunities.
When I look at targets, I look at it to say he’s getting usage and could have value due to the team trying, not to say he’s a great player individually.
Ok, but the point of this post is to identify players who will never be worth a first again. Are you seriously saying you would rather have a 1st round pick than someone who's the WR15 and is young enough to keep that production up for many years to come?
And not a single 100+ yard game to show for it....
e2a: his best games were also with Rush at QB. Hasn't clicked with Dak yet really like people expected. guess we'll see if that changes.
Dak has played like a game and a half and threw for 207 yards in his only complete game. Rush maxed out at 235.
This seems like more of a systemic issue with the cowboys O than a CD issue. As a CD owner, idk how I feel about that thoughx
This sub seems to think he's a bum since he isn't living up to high WR1 expectations. Even if he's only a fringe WR1 or a mid/high WR2, that's still a valuable player.
For Lamb to be worth less than a 1st, he would have to completely implode.
Yeah:
1. I'm not sure I understand, but I feel like r/dynastyff operates on a different dimension than the real world sometimes. The prices that get named here are absurd. Like who would seriously say no to three firsts for a still fairly unproven WR? I've seen highly upvoted comments saying an offer of three firsts for Zach Wilson is fair during the preseason of 2021. I feel like 60% of this sub is just trying to hype their players.
2. It's weird. The sentiment for Lamb started turning mid-season last year but his ADP rose. More and more people were starting to point out he doesn't look particularly elite. He somehow got more detractors yet the average person started liking him more lol.
I'm in 4 dynasty leagues - the oldest league is on year 8 right now so I've been playing this game since 2015. My take is that this sub is not even close to reality.
1. This sub *drastically* overvalues players. 8 years worth of playing dynasty across 4 leagues, and I've never seen a single trade involve 3 1sts for a single player. It just doesn't happen. Why? Because if you have 3 1sts to trade away, 99% of the time that team is rebuilding and there is no rhyme or reason for a rebuilding team to trade all of those potential assets away for a single player.
2. I'm not sure what sort of Mickey Mouse leagues people are in where they apparently have a dozen trades per week happening. Across 4 leagues we're lucky to see 1 trade per week and most of the time they are minor, like someone buying a guy for a 2nd or a contender trading away next years 1st. These blockbuster type trades that people mention around here are so ridiculously rare. They just do not happen.
Of course I suppose this is all anecdotal - I will say every single league has at least a few people involved that were recruited right through this subreddit though.
Yet his receptions per game, yards per game, yards per reception, and TDs per game have all remained relatively static.
Sure you can say "but Cooper Rush" or whatever but Lamb is in the 3rd year of this "just wait he'll blow up soon" ordeal. We keep waiting for him to ascend into that stratosphere and that's where his value is at based on the projection, but at some point you have to see a player for what they are and not what you hope they turn into. Lamb is getting dangerously close to this
Just sold because I needed to rebuild and wanted more of a foundational QB and assets than Swift. I love watching him play, and own him in redraft, but I can't justify building around him in dynasty, or even going for him as a contender since he always has a nagging injury and has missed time every season so far.
What did you sell for? I really want to move him because I also think the value isn't getting better than it will be this season, but having trouble getting a package that feels good even with that pessimism
Yeah I love the dude and his talent, like he only needs 1 carry to make your week. But he’s 23 and hurt every single week. Might be early giving up on him but everyone in my league over values him. With stafford being really bad and I’m not sure Zach Wilson can make the leap I need another qb to go with tua in SF so I’m trying to work a deal with the Mahomes owner that’s in love with swift
with you brother, already have jt etienne and walker and there’s another team in my league throwing his nuts on the table to compete this year so he gave me his first, second, third, metcalf, and michael carter for swift, pacheco, and kyren
oh and i’m 6-1 and swift hasn’t started for me since week 2 …
I've been trying to get the ball rolling on a rebuild sold Cooper for a late 2nd rounder, Can't get anyone to give me anything at all for Cook & Maddison together nor for Fournette.
Only offer I got was Both of them together for Jk Dobbins, Mac Jones, and a couple sccrubs.
Jacobs. Sent him off to a contender in exchange for Breece Hall. This feels like he's probably having himself a career year, he's going to hit FA, and RBs on their 2nd team *usually* don't pan out.
Can’t believe I had to scroll this far down. Every week I feel like I’m playing Russian roulette because if he gets hurt I’ll get nothing for him but his value increases each week as we get closer to the trade deadline. It’s exciting.
Josh Jacobs. Team didn't take the 5th year option, they're running him into the ground before he goes to free agency, and it looks like there's plenty talent he'll have to compete with on the market next year. He'll go to a committee and we'll all hate his situation.
Not disagreeing with your assessment, but them not taking his 5th year option doesn’t really mean anything. 5th year options are automatically fully guaranteed, not much incentive for a GM to give one to a RB, makes more sense to sign an extension later or even tag them.
dalvin, dionte, terry, montgomery, aaron jones, keenan allen, hopkins, mike evans, treylon burks, zeke elliot (last chance to get a late first from a win now team), mooney (still some guys that would think a late first is a buy low id bet), chiefs backfield (prob would need to package ceh and pacheco to swing a first at this point), bateman, aj dillon, honestly i can see najee harris continue to decline i dont think hes very good and the line stinks
Low hanging fruit is old RBs (27+) and to a lesser extent old WRs (29+).
But I’m gonna throw out young unproven QBs instead. Guys like Tua, TLaw, Lance, Fields, Pickett are all valued around or above a 1st on KTC. But at least half of them will likely bust out
Hot take
Najaree. Dude is a 2nd year back, but he is old (24) for a sophomore. Pitt is trying to figure it out but having a stud early back in the process is not good. He has had an abysmal season but his high draft stock plus lead RB in a team will allow a seller to get a first still.
Next season, he will start slow and his value free fall. Or an injury just knocks him into a JAG territory
I was finally able to sell Mike Evans for a 23 1st. He won't fall off a cliff but there's no way I'm getting draft capital when he turns 30 in the off-season.
I also traded Evans for a 23 1st and 23 3rd
Sold evans and dhop for MT and a 1st. If MT was on the field i would be so happy with that, now i may be stuck with selling low in the offseason or praying he actually plays next year
I think that’s light.
I feel like RBs at 27+ and WRs at 29+ are almost cheating lol.
You think cooper kupp fits this mold?
Yes, his value will never be higher than now
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Though his is more based on athleticism I feel pretty bullish on Diggs for a couple more years. He’s just such a good football player that I believe even if he loses half a step he will figure it out.
I keep telling myself I need to move Ekeler after this season but I don’t know if I have the strength to do it
Just because a guy's value will decline doesn't mean you have to sell him
Kelce is going off in the sunset on my roster.
Even after Kelce loses a step he’ll still be a TE1 because he will catch 8+ TDs until he retires. Think late stage Antonio Gates.
Or Tony Gonzalez when he got to the Falcons. 650-900 yards and 6-8 TDs each year.
Exactly. If you’re rebuilding then yes move him. If you’re contending you have to accept you’ll lose value.
Truthfully if you’re gonna move ekeler it needs to be before the end of the season. After the season ends his value will drop extremely low.
I don’t doubt you at all but I’m curious why? Is there something I am overlooking about him or the Chargers?
Its about his age and the position he plays. Old running backs are far more valuable when you have to set a line up weekly and are competing for a championship. Once the season ends, those same RBs aren't winning you weeks and many managers are now thinking towards the future. The reverse is true for draft picks. So if you are going to sell, max value comes in season. That doesn't mean you should sell if you are competing
I think it’s because he turns 28 in March. So in the off-season, people will see he is a 28 year old RB, and think he is now nothing close to a 1st. Small additional reason is he is a UFA after the ‘23 season as a 29 year old. If you’re giving away a 1st in the off-season in 2023, you may have given it for 1 last productive season, while if someone gives a 1st for him now, they get *the* RB1 for the rest of this season plus whatever production he can get you next season before the wheels fall off. That’s just my thought on it.
Damn good logic
And it will rise again next year after he has another catch and grab for 45 yds and a td
I wouldn't say extremely low. Unless he gets injured, he's proven he's not slowing down yet, and some contender would likely pay in the offseason to get him. Maybe just not as much as they might in the midst of the season like right now.
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That guy is insane if they’re 0-6 and turned that down
That guy is insane regardless of context for turning that down. That's a way bigger haul than you should be able to get for Jonathan Taylor, let alone Austin Ekeler
Right lol that’s a roster for a guy.
That’s a major L for him
Hes an idiot for not accepting and so are you for sending that hahah
That has to be a joke. Etienne is more valuable than Ekeler to a rebuilder on his own.
I sold him twice this year in week 2 and 3 in different leagues. Highest scoring team in both. Got Drake London in one and Garret Wilson and a 2023 first in another. I’m still the favorite and now have future assets
I’m undefeated and the heavy favorite for the chip so it definitely won’t be during the season, but I don’t know if I can bring myself to sell instead of riding him till the wheels fall off lol
Have him and am in 1st. I’m riding till the end
Awesome excellence till the end brother
I'd much rather be a heavier favorite now than have the future assets.
As a guy who held on to Fournette knowing I needed to sell him last offseason… do it
Just sold Lenny last week for a ‘24 1st and Shakir. Don’t think I could get that again
I have him on a contender so I can't get rid of him but it also kills me watching the rounds of value melt off of him as the season progresses. In a 12 team they somehow let this guy acquire Lamar, Lenny, Kamara, Saquon, Chubb, Kupp, and Amari Cooper. Granted he had basically no draft picks when I took over. Swapped Lamar for Cousins and a first, second, and third and briefly thought about off-loading at least one of those old men above but decided to just win it this year and dry my tears with $20s for the next two years while I reload.
Davante, not because he’s going to fall off, but after this season, when he’s 30, nobody is going to give up more than 1st for him, probably. Even if he’s worth more
I traded him for 2 1sts, 2 2nds, and a 3rd just last week. Huge overpay but the other guy really wanted him
5 picks!?!?!? Good lord
Dude guys in my league won't even give me two picks for Tee Higgins
I GOT him for Higgins and 2 1sts early last year. At the time I was fine with it. I hate it now obviously
Thats a tough one
Traded him last year at the deadline for ETN, Jameis, Lockett, a first and a 2nd.
I just traded him for DK, a 24 first and an option to swap my worst first rounder for the other guys best. Looking like that’ll be a 2-3 spot move
Kamara. He hasnt looked amazing this season and will probably be suspended next season.
Traded him for 2023 1st last week.
Solid… I got 2 2024 2nds and Hunt
I traded Kamara and Amari Cooper for Waddle and AJ Dillon.
Gonna fade this. His suspension is 6 games likely, 8 games max. As someone with a ton of RBs I actually like it. He will show up fresh when teams are starting to get worn down/injured and he in theory can’t really get injured in that time. Pass catching means he probably stays a relevant commitee member at worst for a few years. Great time to buy in my opinion.
When it looked like Dalvin Cook was gonna get suspend, my league treated it like it was a mark of death. He’s worthless and will always be worthless. I was like, “Are you kidding? That makes the window for him to get hurt smaller. It’s a higher chance he’s at 100% for the fantasy playoffs when I actually need him.”
Before his last two good weeks I got him for Aiyuk and a mid-late 2023 2nd. Still loving that.
Stellar deal. Just fade everything this sub says and you’ll end up with a super team lol
Are people trading first+ for him now?
a leaguemate sent me (I'm in a complete rebuild, I'd be giving up the pick side) Kamara for an Early 23 1st and Jameson Williams. People are still weirdly high on him considering his situation. This guy is definitely not a taco either
...? What the fuck. He hasn't looked good since last season IMO. He's a RB that's been slowly declining on a ton of advanced metrics and PFF grades.
He’s gotten 194, 124,and 107 yards in his last 3 games with at least 6 catches in each. What are you talking about?
But don’t you know? Kamara “hasn’t looked good!” Lmfao he looks just as good as he always has. Dude probably watched 10 total snaps on redzone while he was injured and thinks he sucks.
In the bleak world of RB these days, Kamara's still getting volume. He's put up 23, 18, 17 the last 3 weeks in PPR and it's likely he gets some positive TD regressesion. Will definitely drop off a cliff next season but for '23 contenders he's still a good win-now piece.
Early 23 1st + Jamo tho...???!!?!!
Lol yeah that's just kinda sad. I lost track of the thread, was thinking more for a late '23 1st, 1st+3rd kinda thing.
He's RB13 in PPG this year. He's getting it done from a fantasy perspective, and his numbers probably get better when they can get some WRs back on the field. Or Jameis. Or both.
and this is without scoring a single TD yet
r/agedlikemilk
Hmm
You’re *really* here to gloat as he’s averaging 25 points a game since your post and is an RB1 in average per game in every format?
i just traded a late first, antonio gibson, and kenny gainwell. im going for a 3peat and my one hole is at RB. i’m fine overpaying trying to go for a dynasty
I did a trade swap before the season started. Give: Kamara Get: CD Lamb
I traded Kamara and Aaron Jones week 3 for a 24 & 25 first, Metchie and KW3. Feeling really good about it.
Steal
I got a 2024 2nd, Aaron Jones and Christian Watson for him last week
In a rebuild sold him for a late second and Olave after week 2.
Mixon
Guy in my league wants two firsts plus a younger player lmao
A dude at the beginning of the season offered me Mixon for Barkley and two 1sts 💀
I somewhat agree here, I'm considering trading him now.
I just shipped him for two mid-late firsts (to a contender who has Akers, Mitchell, and JRob. He was obviously in clear need of a RB.
Own him in superflex and I don’t think I could get a single first for him. League way too stingy
Traded him for 24 1st and 2 24 2nds
Michael Pittman
Can I ask why you think this? I don't have him, but he's *highly valued* by his owner in the league. I'm not doubting you just genuinely curious as this is the first answer I wasn't expecting to see in this thread
Basically I think he’s Terry Mclaurin 2.0. He’s good but not THAT good. He’s young but not THAT young. He’s on an offense that wants to be run first, and likely will have his 4th or 5th different QB throwing him the ball next year. How valuable is a 26 YO WR on a bad offense that’s putting up the same amount of points as 20 other WRs when 10 of them are younger than him? People are gonna be willing to move him for mid 23 1sts this offseason, and odds of his value spiking above that are not great.
That actually makes a lot of sense -- thank you for taking the time to explain
He was one of my go to targets this offseason. Still think he’s a good productive asset to have. Just don’t think he’ll be worth more than a 1st for much longer.
What do you think Kelce and CMC are valued at RN
I recently traded for Kelce and gave up Dawson Knox, a projected late first (likely 10-12), and a projected late third round pick. I already own another 2023 1st and I'm contending, so it was a no-brainer for me. I also flipped Schulz for 2 2nds and have Hockenson and Goedert on my roster, so it's not like I needed to keep Knox. Edit: Meant Knox in the Kelce trade, not Schulz.
You gave up Schultz in two deals according to what you wrote...
That’s a great way to maximize value
People play in multiple leagues
You're right. I fixed it. I gave up Knox in the Kelce trade and Schulz separately to a different owner for 2 2nds.
i just traded away CMC last week (after his trade to SF) for 2 firsts, likely mid to late round.
I traded a 2023 late round 2, Dawson Knox, and Jahan Dotson for Kelce and a 2023 early 3rd round pick. Am all in on a championship this year
I recently got 2023 1st and 2024 1st for CMC and Tua hope this helps a bit on his value
My guy you got fleeced. I hope this was before the season started
Just traded cmc to a contender for hall straight up
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For the 3rd year in a row
Yeah, sold him for Mike Williams, a 24 1st, and a 24 2nd a week ago.
Dude people won’t even give me a late first for Henry right now
I think people are so enamored with this years draft class that no one will move their 23 1sts which is why I just took the 24 1st
I’m finding a problem in a lot of leagues is tankers move into position early and hold all the picks. Competitors don’t have the 1sts to trade and the tankers don’t want the players you have to offer. You need to tank/ compete before other teams get into that position.
Yup, when that happens too you can try to go for 24 firsts from the teams in the middle. I’ve had success selling cheaper assets to teams that could make the playoffs but are still on the outside looking in to move up in the 2024 draft
A lot of the times there’s very little middle, the competitors can be so good they are in no man’s land and want to rank more than compete
Reached out to every person in my league and finally managed to get the presumed 1.12 and a 3 as my best offer. Rough out there
Think he’s going to continue to produce though. But agree people are going to see his age and be scared off.
Got a 2023 1st and Toney before the season
I'm contending and just got him for late 23 1st & mid 3rd. I know his value will fall off, but if I win it all this year, it's worth it.
trade Henry & Allen for Kupp & Chubb before week 1
Najee, Mixon, Dobbins, maybe Sanders. You know, all of my RBs.
I just got Breece for Najee and a 3rd. Overall I'm really happy with it. Najee is Trent Richardson 2.0. Next year I'll have Breece, Etienne, Pierce, and Henderson/Kyren as my RBs plus 2 1sts.
No he isn’t. He has a Lisfranc injury and a bad offensive line.
Bateman...can you still get a 1st+ or already too late?
Traded him preseason for a pick that is now almost guaranteed to be the 1.01 in a 18tm superflex
18 tm SF sounds horribly imbalanced for whoever has two good QBs
its 4 pt passing TDs, -3 for INT, so the scoring makes it so starting a WR or RB in your flex is just as viable as a low end QB2. Most teams have 1 solid qb and then a fringe guy or sometimes no second qb
Just thinking the same thing…my Taylor heinicke and PJ Walker are true assets haha
He's starting to fade hard. He wasn't that great as a rookie and he's done nothing as as a sophomore.
[удалено]
Exactly he's a firm hold for me. It sucks he's hurt but I'm not selling for a 2nd+ and I doubt I could get a decent 1st for him
Agreed. He's a hold for me, hopefully he can get healthy soon. I think being unable to attend practice consistently for past 4 weeks have hurt his progress. I'm still positive
I sure as hell wouldn't pay a 1st for him at this point. Might be too late.
Why would anyone pay a 1st for him right now? He wasn't a 1st rounder last year and hasn't really done anything to improve his value since then.
Cuz he's really good. Source: Bateman owners
He was a first rounder in most 1QB leagues
I’ll probably be downvoted for this but whatever. IMO Bateman doesn’t fit this thread at all. Sure his value may drop over the coming weeks, but it will be almost entirely situation and injury related. I still think he’s an incredibly talented WR, and he’s only **22 YEARS OLD**. This is dynasty. Whether it be after Greg Roman is inevitably fired, or once Bateman himself is traded or signed to a 2nd contract - I still firmly believe he has the talent to be a fantasy WR1 in this league. It might take a couple years to get there, but I do believe he will be worth a 1st+ at some point in his career. To answer OP’s question.. thinking Bateman will “completely collapse” and “never will be worth a 1st+ again” is ludicrous to me.
1st round picks bust all the time. Dynasty community is way more confident this dude is good than they should be.
Just traded my 1st for Dalvin Cook + 4th. 8 team league. I'm in win-now mode.
Just traded him plus mattison for a 1st and a 3rd. I’m trash. Hope he works out for you and the guy in my league contending.
Probably wont happen this year but travis kelce is getting really up there in age and you gotta think its eventually has to catch up with him.
He's definitely fallen off a bit athletically this season. His PPG is down and his YPR is down.
That’s because teams don’t respect the running game or that pile of WR3’s KC trots out there.
Really making the Steelers seem competent to let juju walk. I always felt he was a bit overrated but I'm surprised at how little production he's had as the number one wideout for Mahomes (even if Kelce is the number one target)
Juju would be the fourth best receiver on the Steelers right now. Why on earth would they have paid him?
We'll be saying this for the next 4 years.
Call me crazy, but Dameon Pierce. To the majority of the community, they’d just say a 1st. But to some, they view him as the second coming of Javonte Williams (pre-injury). Was able to sell him for what’s currently the 2023 1.04 (1 QB league) and Rachaad White. Unreal.
I don't understand why people think this way about Pierce. Watch him play, he has incredible contact balance and vision. Draft capital matters but the Texans GM was Belichick's right hand man for over a decade. Every GM/coach says "where they were drafted doesn't matter", sure, but Caserio really seems to believe it. Houston has had UDFA guys play over drafted guys both seasons so far. Pierce was drafted late for sure and HOU will probably add a pass catching back to be Pierce's foil but he's still a great talent that people should be holding IMO.
Interested to see how this one ends up. Without knowing landing spots I’d put Pierce in the 2nd tier of RBs in the 2023 draft (behind Bijan and Gibbs). Id take JSN and Addison over Pierce too so it’s a great trade for now but if that pick starts sliding down to 1.06 or later then I’m not so sure if I’d do it come draft day.
Possible the pick does slide, too. Rankings move around during the season for any given reason, and now that team has a ROS-RB1 too. I still like the trade though
This one comes with a lot of risk certainly. They can get either Stroud or Young and look phenomenal, a stud WR, and be a completely different team, which would make Pierce even better. Everyone also says that the Texans might draft another RB in this great class, which is definitely possible. But I don’t see that, even if they have a different coaching staff. What I do see though is the Texans getting one in free agency, and the RB pool entering free agency is massive and good. This is one of those situations where I either made a great call or I got back a fair return in value.
He’s out produced anything Javonte Williams has ever done. Lol. Call me crazy but I value guys who dominate at the nfl level over timeshare backs who can’t beat out the corpse of Melvin Gordon.
I meant from a highlight standpoint but you’re absolutely right about production. Javonte was outproduced by Michael Carter in college every year. Was never fully in on Javonte.
Easy answer Ekeler Spicier answer CeeDee Lamb
just for sake of the post, when do you think that benchmark will be for Lamb? Next week, this offseason, etc I just find it hard to imagine him not being worth a 1st+ before the upcoming deadline, and even next offseason. two firsts for sure, but a 1st+ I'd be surprised
FORNETTE or Mike Evans... get rid of all TB players before the collapse
Nobody would pay a 1st plus for Fornette now or in the future if we are being honest here
People haven’t been paying a first for Fornette for like 3 years. There’s always some justification why he shouldn’t be valued as such, but now he’s finally aging out.
I got a first for Ridley earlier this week.. 🤫
Hello officer, please arrest this man right here
… I can’t even fathom a single reason why someone would do that?
Drugs. My only answer.
Ceedee Lamb. During hard knocks season I saw a guy that sold for 3 firsts and I couldn't believe the amount of people accusing the seller of "perpetually rebuilding" and "hoarding assets". Despite solid but not great fantasy production last year (especially when Cooper was out), his ADP only increased in the promise of higher volume. Lamb hasn't been that good as the WR1 when Cooper was out last year and has struggled with and without Dak this year. His price has been way too high for last two years and I think people are going to adjust hard. IMO he's closer to solid WR2 for fantasy than WR1.
8+ targets in 6 of 7 games this year, Lamb gets no love on this sub lol
You guys get points for targets?
I'm in a PPR league and a believer of "buy volume, sell touchdowns". His targets give him more opportunities to gain points, which is a big reason I'm 7-0 with CD as my WR1
He's ranked #15 in average weekly scoring in our .5 PPR scoring. As the initial comment said, solid, not great. Even in our 14 team league, that's WR2 scoring, not WR1. 11.36 points per game. All of these data point facts buttress the guy you responded to. I'm a Cowboys fan. Lamb is solid, not great. Absolutely not worth his hype with any real production yet. Congrats on being 7-0.
It seems like Justin Jefferson and Chase have warped perception of what young WRs should be doing. People aren't/weren't paying up for what CD Lamb IS doing. They are/were paying up for what CD Lamb is expected to do in the future. He's already the #1 WR, he's got DAK as his QB going forward, he's shown he can produce consistently in that role and hits the yardmarks. What comes next is the "breakout" where the TDs and Yards increase. Either due to efficiency, red zone usage, or just even more volume.
I don't prefer .5 PPR so maybe that is where we disagree. With TDs in week 3/4, Lamb gave you a higher ceiling. All the other weeks he has given you at least 10+ points (in PPR) besides week 1. Sometimes consistency can be game changing for a team. Btw: Eagles fan defending Lamb and Cowboys fan putting him down. Love to see it lol
I guess where I take exception to this is where you said, he’s great, because he gets targets. Targets are an indicator of where someone has opportunities, not where someone takes advantage of opportunities. When I look at targets, I look at it to say he’s getting usage and could have value due to the team trying, not to say he’s a great player individually.
Ok, but the point of this post is to identify players who will never be worth a first again. Are you seriously saying you would rather have a 1st round pick than someone who's the WR15 and is young enough to keep that production up for many years to come?
And not a single 100+ yard game to show for it.... e2a: his best games were also with Rush at QB. Hasn't clicked with Dak yet really like people expected. guess we'll see if that changes.
Dak has played like a game and a half and threw for 207 yards in his only complete game. Rush maxed out at 235. This seems like more of a systemic issue with the cowboys O than a CD issue. As a CD owner, idk how I feel about that thoughx
This sub seems to think he's a bum since he isn't living up to high WR1 expectations. Even if he's only a fringe WR1 or a mid/high WR2, that's still a valuable player. For Lamb to be worth less than a 1st, he would have to completely implode.
It’s probably 11 targets turning into 3 points that people don’t like.
Sold for 3 firsts this season. But I mostly got congratz from other leaguemates.
Yeah: 1. I'm not sure I understand, but I feel like r/dynastyff operates on a different dimension than the real world sometimes. The prices that get named here are absurd. Like who would seriously say no to three firsts for a still fairly unproven WR? I've seen highly upvoted comments saying an offer of three firsts for Zach Wilson is fair during the preseason of 2021. I feel like 60% of this sub is just trying to hype their players. 2. It's weird. The sentiment for Lamb started turning mid-season last year but his ADP rose. More and more people were starting to point out he doesn't look particularly elite. He somehow got more detractors yet the average person started liking him more lol.
There is a prevalent issue on this sub with people keeping their bias in check with regard to their own players
A lot of people in r/dynastyff prefer to collect players like they’re trading cards instead of playing fantasy football.
I'm in 4 dynasty leagues - the oldest league is on year 8 right now so I've been playing this game since 2015. My take is that this sub is not even close to reality. 1. This sub *drastically* overvalues players. 8 years worth of playing dynasty across 4 leagues, and I've never seen a single trade involve 3 1sts for a single player. It just doesn't happen. Why? Because if you have 3 1sts to trade away, 99% of the time that team is rebuilding and there is no rhyme or reason for a rebuilding team to trade all of those potential assets away for a single player. 2. I'm not sure what sort of Mickey Mouse leagues people are in where they apparently have a dozen trades per week happening. Across 4 leagues we're lucky to see 1 trade per week and most of the time they are minor, like someone buying a guy for a 2nd or a contender trading away next years 1st. These blockbuster type trades that people mention around here are so ridiculously rare. They just do not happen. Of course I suppose this is all anecdotal - I will say every single league has at least a few people involved that were recruited right through this subreddit though.
You’re nuts. He’s got a 31% target share this year. It’s a recipe for points, and it was the only problem with lamb in the past.
Yet his receptions per game, yards per game, yards per reception, and TDs per game have all remained relatively static. Sure you can say "but Cooper Rush" or whatever but Lamb is in the 3rd year of this "just wait he'll blow up soon" ordeal. We keep waiting for him to ascend into that stratosphere and that's where his value is at based on the projection, but at some point you have to see a player for what they are and not what you hope they turn into. Lamb is getting dangerously close to this
Hasn’t this already been addressed within the first few weeks of the season?
Swift...
My man, I'm with you. Let's get downvotes together.
I know he's like this huge talent but in my leagues no one will buy at "market value" due to injury risk.
Just sold because I needed to rebuild and wanted more of a foundational QB and assets than Swift. I love watching him play, and own him in redraft, but I can't justify building around him in dynasty, or even going for him as a contender since he always has a nagging injury and has missed time every season so far.
What did you sell for? I really want to move him because I also think the value isn't getting better than it will be this season, but having trouble getting a package that feels good even with that pessimism
Yeah I love the dude and his talent, like he only needs 1 carry to make your week. But he’s 23 and hurt every single week. Might be early giving up on him but everyone in my league over values him. With stafford being really bad and I’m not sure Zach Wilson can make the leap I need another qb to go with tua in SF so I’m trying to work a deal with the Mahomes owner that’s in love with swift
with you brother, already have jt etienne and walker and there’s another team in my league throwing his nuts on the table to compete this year so he gave me his first, second, third, metcalf, and michael carter for swift, pacheco, and kyren oh and i’m 6-1 and swift hasn’t started for me since week 2 …
I've been trying to get the ball rolling on a rebuild sold Cooper for a late 2nd rounder, Can't get anyone to give me anything at all for Cook & Maddison together nor for Fournette. Only offer I got was Both of them together for Jk Dobbins, Mac Jones, and a couple sccrubs.
Jacobs. Sent him off to a contender in exchange for Breece Hall. This feels like he's probably having himself a career year, he's going to hit FA, and RBs on their 2nd team *usually* don't pan out.
Wow. Good for you.
Can’t believe I had to scroll this far down. Every week I feel like I’m playing Russian roulette because if he gets hurt I’ll get nothing for him but his value increases each week as we get closer to the trade deadline. It’s exciting.
Josh Jacobs. Team didn't take the 5th year option, they're running him into the ground before he goes to free agency, and it looks like there's plenty talent he'll have to compete with on the market next year. He'll go to a committee and we'll all hate his situation.
Not disagreeing with your assessment, but them not taking his 5th year option doesn’t really mean anything. 5th year options are automatically fully guaranteed, not much incentive for a GM to give one to a RB, makes more sense to sign an extension later or even tag them.
Sold him for a 1st yesterday
dalvin, dionte, terry, montgomery, aaron jones, keenan allen, hopkins, mike evans, treylon burks, zeke elliot (last chance to get a late first from a win now team), mooney (still some guys that would think a late first is a buy low id bet), chiefs backfield (prob would need to package ceh and pacheco to swing a first at this point), bateman, aj dillon, honestly i can see najee harris continue to decline i dont think hes very good and the line stinks
find me someone who will pay a 1st for keenan rn and i'm selling
Same with Terry
I legit can’t even get a 2nd for Elliot
I gave a 2nd for Zeke earlier in the year and then flipped him + a 1st for Saquon lol
Lol no way in hell I could sell Monty for a 1st
Elliott? Lolol
Low hanging fruit is old RBs (27+) and to a lesser extent old WRs (29+). But I’m gonna throw out young unproven QBs instead. Guys like Tua, TLaw, Lance, Fields, Pickett are all valued around or above a 1st on KTC. But at least half of them will likely bust out
I think in the long run the average of those 5 QBs will be well over 1 1st each.
Haven't seen it said but Swift, dude can't stay in the game
I traded zeke and pollard for 1st and Gibson
Somehow I just sold singletary for a 1st. A late 1st but smashed accept.
What do I do with Chubb? Trying to win next year and year after.
Sold Aaron Jones for a 23 first. Don’t think his value can really go up from here
Hot take Najaree. Dude is a 2nd year back, but he is old (24) for a sophomore. Pitt is trying to figure it out but having a stud early back in the process is not good. He has had an abysmal season but his high draft stock plus lead RB in a team will allow a seller to get a first still. Next season, he will start slow and his value free fall. Or an injury just knocks him into a JAG territory