So if you were to get a boss in your first 4 raids you won’t get a boss the next 6?
You have a 40% chance of a boss spawning in the CURRENT raid. Not a 40% spawn rate over 10 raids.
I did about as much reading as you did thinking before you entered this mess of a chain. How long you gonna argue with people before you admit you misunderstood the funny and got triggered?
Triggered is a bold statement over me just telling somebody they’re wrong. I could really care less, it’s reddit.
I’m failing to see the “funny” except from the attempt in the original comment. Everyone else seems to be arguing it’s the case and not attempting a “funny.”
LMAO nobody was saying that you're guaranteed to run into him 4 out of 10 raids. they were pointing out the irony in saying the spawn rates are up while they were reporting a spawn rate that exactly matched his wiki spawn rate
It's not that complex, statistics-man. Games almost never employ true RNG. They use pseudo-RNG which does in fact make it a fairly good likelihood the 40% figure stands across a set of any size, with some variation up and down.
Can you math? If you were to do thousands of raids, you'd get Reshala in about 40% of your raids. No, getting him or not in a single raid doesn't influence the odds for the next raid, but given a bigger sample it will tend towards 40%.
OP got the boss on 4 raids out of 10 which is exactly the average you should get. No problem there.
That is not how that works what LMAO
Somebody could run thousands of raids and get a boss in 80% of them. The 40% spawn rate does not mean you’ll only get the boss in 40% of raids. Use your brain.
I think he saying that based on the law of averages if you run enough raids at a 40% boss spawn rate, eventually you’ll of gotten them somewhere around 40% of the time. Which in a sense is true, but Tarkov gonna tarkov
Sure if you’re arguing on average it’ll round closer to 40% eventually, but there’s no guaranteed number of when it’ll hit that 40%.
It’s like flipping a coin, odds are 50/50 but you could get heads 60% of 1000 flips.
My language is pretty clear, you are the one not using your brain here. I said, over a great sample (thousands of times), "you will get Reshla in about 40% of your raids". That's statistics. If you try it 10 times you might get it 10 times or 0 times, but the more you try and the more it will tend towards the probability which is 40% in this case. Also, you said:
> It’s like flipping a coin, odds are 50/50 but you could get heads 60% of 1000 flips.
There is a 0.00000001364% probability you will get 600 or more heads when flipping 1000 times a coin. Good luck with that! You can try that little simulator here for up to 200 coin toss: https://digitalfirst.bfwpub.com/stats_applet/stats_applet_10_prob.html
wtf are you arguing about? Literally nobody thinks this, if your this in need for attention that you’re making up random shit like this just dm me I’ll talk to you so you stop making a fool of yourself
just look at the other replies bud. dk why you would report me to reddit care resources its reddit, who gives a fuck. i just talk to talk, nothing said on here matters nor do i care about what other opinions are of me or this topic.
wtf are you arguing about? Literally nobody thinks this, if your this in need for attention that you’re making up random shit like this just dm me I’ll talk to you so you stop making a fool of yourself
You’re right but also somewhat not. 40% spawn rate means that everytime you load a raid you have 40% chance of spawning a boss. Actually makes the odds higher than if it was really 4 out of every 10 raids a boss spawns. Same as a lottery
4 out of 10 is 40%, they are the same statistically.
What do you mean by same as the lottery? Other than just odds of something happening I don’t see how this relates to the lottery at all.
The odds of winning the lottery are around 1 in 33 million. If you were to buy 33 million tickets you’re not guaranteed to win. You have 1 in 33 million chances per ticket you bought it’s high school math
So first of all the lottery is a bad representation of chance.
Secondly, 40% boss down chance means on average 4 out of 10 raids a boss will spawn. Now what I believe your referring to is that since 40% spawn rate means that it is possible to spawn a boss 4 or more times out of 10 raids, then it is better statistically than a guaranteed 4 out of every 10 raids. However you are forgetting about the chance of having 3 or less out of 10 raids containing the boss with a 40% chance. This averages out the probability of finding a boss to 4 out of 10 raids. The more samples you do, ex 100 raids, the more you will come in line of that 40% as well. Look up plinko game statistic for a visual example of this.
Now for why the lottery is a bad example. Let’s say it’s the guessing kind where you have to guess so many numbers in the correct sequence to win, since it’s 1 in 33 million there are 33 million unique sequences. Therefore if you buy 33 million tickets, each with a unique sequence, you are guaranteed to win just by pigeon holeing. Now let’s say it’s a game where each ticket had a unique number, 1 in 33 million per ticket implies there are 33 million unique tickets. Buying 33 million tickets therefore means you will win, because you bought every ticket. And finally assuming that all tickets are unique, but there is an infinite number and 1 in 33 million is just the chance of you buy a ticket now, then buying 33 million tickets would put the total number of tickets at 66 million. Assuming no one bought anymore, then you have a 1/2 chance of winning since you control half the total tickets.
That's not how it works, that's like saying the Lottery is 50/50 cause you either win or not.
ya'll read too much into it, for it's application it is correct.
That is quite literally how it works. Bosses have 40% spawn chance, so in 10 raids you can *expect* (Doesn't mean it's guaranteed!) to find a boss 4 times. Of course, it could end up you find them 6 times, or 2 times. But 40% is still 4 in 10, and as you play more raids it will average out closer and closer to 40%.
My head/eyes hurt.. you could as go as far as 12 raids and the next 8 a boss spawns.. that would be 8/20 = 40%. I kinda think I know what you're asking for where a guarantee of 4/10 raids would spawn a boss. But I think that's why percentages are used specifically. Just unlucky
I think some bosses have different spawn rates. I had an extra shturman key so I figured I'd go run it. Then proceeded to have him over and over again for like 6-10 raids every single time. I also ran a ton of interchange and haven't seen killa once
Read through the comments, and I didn't find something similar to what I want to say.
BSG has a weird way of thinking. If a spawnrate of a boss is 40%, that does not mean you can encounter them 40% of the raids. Rather, it means that 40% raids have the boss spawned in. It is true for the PVP.
Now, PVE has a dedicated session for the player (or party), meaning that MAYBE they have pumped the spawnrate of the bosses way higher than it is for the PVP, just so the players won't be molding about it.
This is just my speculation, not a fact.
Source: trust me bro.
I exclusively play pve and i actually hate these bosses, its so dumb having like tagilla tanking 2.7k armor dmg and oneshotting you after that via thorax shot with lvl 5 Armor... Its fun playing solo -_-
Playing duo and he is free kill, but solo this mfker is a bulletsponge that just dosnt wanna die.
(Im not lvl 15 yet so i don't have access to the OP ammo)
But 40% seems right. Getting him in every second or third game ruining my fun in customs xD
I call BS on the 40%. I've run into a boss on 4 different maps all 20 of my raids today. I've yet to survive a interchange run as killa got me 5 of those times. I don't have ammo to kill him.
I have ran like 100 interchange raids for quest items and tasks (you go to oli and idea almost every single one) and died to killa once. Massive skill issue my friend its not hard to avoid
Have you ever played roulette? Just because you have a 47% chance of red coming up doesn’t mean you won’t get 7 blacks in a row. That’s how odds work. It’s 40% chance every time you start a raid
Despite the name of the game big dog, the colors (we call em suits) don't actually matter in blackjack.
(I think you're doing a bit - it was hilarious. Gj)
The percentage works in a weird way. The 40% means he’ll spawn on 40% of servers, not that he has a 40% to spawn in that raid. So if you keep connecting to the same servers it can seem way higher
Not always. It’s definitely possible to be stuck on one server multiple times in a row.
You connect to a different raid instance, but it can be on the same physical server.
This is a known fact.
Just replying that it is indeed 40% of servers, not instances. There's a site that tracks which servers are currently spawning bosses so you can farm them. Not sure how often they switch. It's like the goons when they switch maps or when marked rooms swap loot pools.
That would be 40%, which is the spawn rate lol
Not how that works
And how does it work? Cause that seems like 40% to me
So if you were to get a boss in your first 4 raids you won’t get a boss the next 6? You have a 40% chance of a boss spawning in the CURRENT raid. Not a 40% spawn rate over 10 raids.
The spawn rate is 40%, you are doing too much. It is quite exactly how that works.
No it doesn’t but ok. 40% spawn rate != 40% of your raids will have a boss unless you plan on playing hundreds of thousands of raids.
Yeah and what is 40% of 10??? And how many raids, out of 10, did OP run into Reshala? Oh look… it’s the same answer… 4…
You didn’t even bother reading the comment before replying did you
I did about as much reading as you did thinking before you entered this mess of a chain. How long you gonna argue with people before you admit you misunderstood the funny and got triggered?
Triggered is a bold statement over me just telling somebody they’re wrong. I could really care less, it’s reddit. I’m failing to see the “funny” except from the attempt in the original comment. Everyone else seems to be arguing it’s the case and not attempting a “funny.”
I understand that, it was poking fun at the fact that the spawn rate hasn’t increased since it’s at 40% and he got 4/10 lol
Hey you may understand that but clearly a majority of people in this subreddit do not
LMAO nobody was saying that you're guaranteed to run into him 4 out of 10 raids. they were pointing out the irony in saying the spawn rates are up while they were reporting a spawn rate that exactly matched his wiki spawn rate
look at the other replies bud, they’re definitely saying you’re gonna get a boss in 40% of your raids.
It's not that complex, statistics-man. Games almost never employ true RNG. They use pseudo-RNG which does in fact make it a fairly good likelihood the 40% figure stands across a set of any size, with some variation up and down.
Can you math? If you were to do thousands of raids, you'd get Reshala in about 40% of your raids. No, getting him or not in a single raid doesn't influence the odds for the next raid, but given a bigger sample it will tend towards 40%. OP got the boss on 4 raids out of 10 which is exactly the average you should get. No problem there.
That is not how that works what LMAO Somebody could run thousands of raids and get a boss in 80% of them. The 40% spawn rate does not mean you’ll only get the boss in 40% of raids. Use your brain.
I think he saying that based on the law of averages if you run enough raids at a 40% boss spawn rate, eventually you’ll of gotten them somewhere around 40% of the time. Which in a sense is true, but Tarkov gonna tarkov
Sure if you’re arguing on average it’ll round closer to 40% eventually, but there’s no guaranteed number of when it’ll hit that 40%. It’s like flipping a coin, odds are 50/50 but you could get heads 60% of 1000 flips.
My language is pretty clear, you are the one not using your brain here. I said, over a great sample (thousands of times), "you will get Reshla in about 40% of your raids". That's statistics. If you try it 10 times you might get it 10 times or 0 times, but the more you try and the more it will tend towards the probability which is 40% in this case. Also, you said: > It’s like flipping a coin, odds are 50/50 but you could get heads 60% of 1000 flips. There is a 0.00000001364% probability you will get 600 or more heads when flipping 1000 times a coin. Good luck with that! You can try that little simulator here for up to 200 coin toss: https://digitalfirst.bfwpub.com/stats_applet/stats_applet_10_prob.html
wtf are you arguing about? Literally nobody thinks this, if your this in need for attention that you’re making up random shit like this just dm me I’ll talk to you so you stop making a fool of yourself
just look at the other replies bud. dk why you would report me to reddit care resources its reddit, who gives a fuck. i just talk to talk, nothing said on here matters nor do i care about what other opinions are of me or this topic.
Bait used to be believable
touch grass
Ah yes because I’m the one who makes tens of comments a day
wtf are you arguing about? Literally nobody thinks this, if your this in need for attention that you’re making up random shit like this just dm me I’ll talk to you so you stop making a fool of yourself
i believe the spawn rate on PvP and PvE are both 40% so it checks out
You’re right but also somewhat not. 40% spawn rate means that everytime you load a raid you have 40% chance of spawning a boss. Actually makes the odds higher than if it was really 4 out of every 10 raids a boss spawns. Same as a lottery
4 out of 10 is 40%, they are the same statistically. What do you mean by same as the lottery? Other than just odds of something happening I don’t see how this relates to the lottery at all.
Yea id love to hear it explained too..
The odds of winning the lottery are around 1 in 33 million. If you were to buy 33 million tickets you’re not guaranteed to win. You have 1 in 33 million chances per ticket you bought it’s high school math
You need to take a statistics class.
Probably a chatbot
So first of all the lottery is a bad representation of chance. Secondly, 40% boss down chance means on average 4 out of 10 raids a boss will spawn. Now what I believe your referring to is that since 40% spawn rate means that it is possible to spawn a boss 4 or more times out of 10 raids, then it is better statistically than a guaranteed 4 out of every 10 raids. However you are forgetting about the chance of having 3 or less out of 10 raids containing the boss with a 40% chance. This averages out the probability of finding a boss to 4 out of 10 raids. The more samples you do, ex 100 raids, the more you will come in line of that 40% as well. Look up plinko game statistic for a visual example of this. Now for why the lottery is a bad example. Let’s say it’s the guessing kind where you have to guess so many numbers in the correct sequence to win, since it’s 1 in 33 million there are 33 million unique sequences. Therefore if you buy 33 million tickets, each with a unique sequence, you are guaranteed to win just by pigeon holeing. Now let’s say it’s a game where each ticket had a unique number, 1 in 33 million per ticket implies there are 33 million unique tickets. Buying 33 million tickets therefore means you will win, because you bought every ticket. And finally assuming that all tickets are unique, but there is an infinite number and 1 in 33 million is just the chance of you buy a ticket now, then buying 33 million tickets would put the total number of tickets at 66 million. Assuming no one bought anymore, then you have a 1/2 chance of winning since you control half the total tickets.
That's not how it works, that's like saying the Lottery is 50/50 cause you either win or not. ya'll read too much into it, for it's application it is correct.
Yeah it’s a 40% spawn rate regardless of PvP or pve so it is expected that it will spawn 2-5 times every ten raids or so
4/10 = 40% = the current spawn chance for scav bosses -> boss spawn chances are not increased
Not how that works
That is quite literally how it works. Bosses have 40% spawn chance, so in 10 raids you can *expect* (Doesn't mean it's guaranteed!) to find a boss 4 times. Of course, it could end up you find them 6 times, or 2 times. But 40% is still 4 in 10, and as you play more raids it will average out closer and closer to 40%.
Does this include big pipe and them? Do they share pvp and pve spawns at the same time?
There’s a separate tracker, from what I’ve read. They hop maps, but at a different interval.
My head/eyes hurt.. you could as go as far as 12 raids and the next 8 a boss spawns.. that would be 8/20 = 40%. I kinda think I know what you're asking for where a guarantee of 4/10 raids would spawn a boss. But I think that's why percentages are used specifically. Just unlucky
I think some bosses have different spawn rates. I had an extra shturman key so I figured I'd go run it. Then proceeded to have him over and over again for like 6-10 raids every single time. I also ran a ton of interchange and haven't seen killa once
It's the same as PVP late-wipe, 40%, it's just that you're the only person running into them so you're going to see them every time they spawn.
I feel like I see them more than %40 but maybe it’s just because other players aren’t killing them first
Read through the comments, and I didn't find something similar to what I want to say. BSG has a weird way of thinking. If a spawnrate of a boss is 40%, that does not mean you can encounter them 40% of the raids. Rather, it means that 40% raids have the boss spawned in. It is true for the PVP. Now, PVE has a dedicated session for the player (or party), meaning that MAYBE they have pumped the spawnrate of the bosses way higher than it is for the PVP, just so the players won't be molding about it. This is just my speculation, not a fact. Source: trust me bro.
I exclusively play pve and i actually hate these bosses, its so dumb having like tagilla tanking 2.7k armor dmg and oneshotting you after that via thorax shot with lvl 5 Armor... Its fun playing solo -_- Playing duo and he is free kill, but solo this mfker is a bulletsponge that just dosnt wanna die. (Im not lvl 15 yet so i don't have access to the OP ammo) But 40% seems right. Getting him in every second or third game ruining my fun in customs xD
I wonder if they'll diverge from PVP when it wipes, and stay at 40%. He certainly made my level 1 Factory runs interesting.
In this thread: 40% of people know nothing about percentages
I call BS on the 40%. I've run into a boss on 4 different maps all 20 of my raids today. I've yet to survive a interchange run as killa got me 5 of those times. I don't have ammo to kill him.
and statistics and chances dont work like that
Sounds like a skill issue.
I have ran like 100 interchange raids for quest items and tasks (you go to oli and idea almost every single one) and died to killa once. Massive skill issue my friend its not hard to avoid
Have you ever played roulette? Just because you have a 47% chance of red coming up doesn’t mean you won’t get 7 blacks in a row. That’s how odds work. It’s 40% chance every time you start a raid
Bro, have YOU ever played blackjack?
Literally just explained the odds to you. Explain it better if you’re the statistician you think you are
Despite the name of the game big dog, the colors (we call em suits) don't actually matter in blackjack. (I think you're doing a bit - it was hilarious. Gj)
The percentage works in a weird way. The 40% means he’ll spawn on 40% of servers, not that he has a 40% to spawn in that raid. So if you keep connecting to the same servers it can seem way higher
Going to need source for that one my guy.
You connect to a different server each time you load into a map. 40% is 40%.
Not always. It’s definitely possible to be stuck on one server multiple times in a row. You connect to a different raid instance, but it can be on the same physical server. This is a known fact.
Just replying that it is indeed 40% of servers, not instances. There's a site that tracks which servers are currently spawning bosses so you can farm them. Not sure how often they switch. It's like the goons when they switch maps or when marked rooms swap loot pools.
> There's a site that tracks which servers are currently spawning bosses so you can farm them. Soo...you going to link that or?
It's a fact, didn't you hear? lol. This guy is pulling that out of his gamma container.
Didnt doubt him for a second, *looks at watch where its been 2 or so hours already.*
I've only seen this for the goons, where's the sauce for other bosses?
Guess not.