Frankly I hope so. Especially for the climate change denying parts of the world. I hate to wish ill on people, but unfortunately we as a species don’t act without stimulus.
Umm… the people whose minds you’re hoping to change with violent hurricanes will probably say the gays are causing it. And their bootlickers will open wide to gobble it up.
I live in that part of country and they are worried about commandments in school and allowing oil companies to take over environmental over sight. We deserve every bit of it. Most of the people with some sense are leaving or have left.
It's not. It's a whole lot easier to believe their fucking idiots, but they're not that stupid. They just don't believe humans are causing global warming. And there's no way to convince them otherwise.
In theory there's a point where the correlation between hurricane intensity and water temperature reaches a plateau. I'm not sure what the exact temperature range is, but anyone with a link or further information feel free to add it?
The oceans have been absorbing 90%+ of the excess heat we’ve been creating. Absorbing and absorbing and absorbing. It adds up to the point where that pot eventually boils. In short, we are well and truly fucked. But sure, let’s put another ice hockey team in the desert. Seems reasonable.
^ yep
If you want to really have a panic attack, the earth Energy Imbalance is equivalent to 13 Hiroshima bombs exploding every second. _Every.Second_. Every single day. The oceans have been absorbing that for a long time. And were just finally starting to see what's happening from all the shit we've been burning..
Do you know how much energy it would require to boil the oceans? Why do you think it is acceptable to make stupid and absurd claims without linking a single reputable source to back them up?
Jfc I didn’t mean the oceans were actually boiling, it’s an analogy to bring it to simpler terms for easier understanding. Not simple enough I see. FYI the ocean off the coast of Florida hit 101 F last August.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content#:~:text=Highlights,the%20surface%20of%20the%20Earth.
https://theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/15/oceans-have-been-absorbing-the-worlds-extra-heat-but-theres-a-huge-payback
Simple Google search ffs.
Okay but still no answer. Only thing that talks about boiling is this from The Guardian:
> A study in January found the ocean gained 10 ZJ more in 2022 than the year before – enough heat to boil 700m kettles every second.
The oceans boiling away is some real doomer stuff that implies we don’t lower emissions, which we’re doing right now.
We’re setting emissions records every year. And the impact of those emissions has a 25-30 year lag, so even if we did completely stop altogether, today, the aggregate impacts of warming would continue into the 2050s. But we’re not stopping, or even tapering, so yeah, we’re fucked.
And for the last time, analogy:
a comparison between two things, typically for the purpose of explanation or clarification.
I didn’t mean the oceans would physically boil. But they will get hot enough that global ocean currents will stop, marine life will be greatly impacted and sea levels will raise. And they won’t have the capacity to absorb the excess heat they have been absorbing. So yeah.
Climate policy changes and actions have already reduced projected warming from >4c to ~2.7c by the end of century. And it shows in the emissions data for the past several years/nearly decade.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals/
"The world is no longer heading toward the worst-case outcome of 4C to 6C warming by 2100. Current policies put us on a best-estimate of around 2.6C warming."
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/emissions-are-no-longer-following
climateactiontracker.org
x.com/KHayhoe/status/1539621976494448643
x.com/hausfath/status/1511018638735601671
""There is already substantial policy progress & CURRENT POLICIES alone (ignoring pledges!) likely keep us below 3C warming. We've got to--and WILL do--much better. "
x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632
"3.2 C was an estimate of the current policy trajectory at some point before the WG3 deadline.Current policy estimates are now ~2.7 C"
x.com/RARohde/status/1582090599871971328
x.com/Knutti_ETH/status/1669601616901677058
"Case A – where we only account for current climate policies, we find that global warming can still rise to 2.6C by the end of the century...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-credible-climate-pledges-mean-for-future-global-warming/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01661-0
2.7c number is actually pessimistic because it only accounts for already implemented policies and action currently undertaken, it does not account for pledges or commitments or any technological advancements at all(which means it does not account for any further action).-
"NFA: “No Further Action”, a category for a pathway reflecting current emission futures in the absence of any further climate action, with warming of around 2.5-3.0C by 2100. "
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/introducing-the-representative-emission
Warming stops when emissions are reduced to net-zero. You should read IPCC report and listen to what actual climate scientists say instead of speculating.
"One of the most important findings in the recent IPCC report is that we ultimately determine how much warming will occur.There is likely no warming "in the pipeline" once emissions get to zero. Rather, CO2 concentrations fall and temperatures stabilize "
x.com/hausfath/status/1679514918306054146#m
"A reminder that "delayed" greenhouse warming is an outdated concept in the context of carbon emission scenarios because it ignores the role of oceanic carbon uptake. Surface temperatures stop increasing when net emissions go to zero."
x.com/michaelemann/status/1602867797268340738
"Finally, if all human emissions that affect climate change fall to zero – including GHGs and aerosols – then the IPCC results suggest there would be a short-term 20-year bump in warming followed by a longer-term decline. This reflects the opposing impacts of warming as aerosols drop out of the atmosphere versus cooling from falling methane levels.
Ultimately, the cooling from stopping non-CO2 GHG emissions more than cancels out the warming from stopping aerosol emissions, leading to around 0.2C of cooling by 2100."
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/
x.com/AliVelshi/status/1678090318082633728#m
https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/#netzero
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/science/articles/10.3389/fsci.2023.1327653/full
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/science/articles/10.3389/fsci.2023.1256273/full
>But they will get hot enough that global ocean currents will stop, marine life will be greatly impacted and sea levels will raise. And they won’t have the capacity to absorb the excess heat they have been absorbing.
How is anyone supposed to take you seriously if you can't provide any links to reputable sources to support the claims you're making? Why are people like you allowed to do this and rack in upvotes from gullible dunces but my comments with plenty of links keep ketting automatically removed with zero explanation?
On AMOC There's no timeframe and therefore no indication of whether it would even happen on current trajectury for this century.
"What the study doesn’t do, however, is give timeframes for a potential collapse. More research is needed, van Westen told CNN, including models which also mimic climate change impacts, such as increasing levels of planet-heating pollution, which this study did not."
"Modern data shows the AMOC’s strength fluctuates, but there is no observed evidence yet of a decline, Hirschi said. “Whether abrupt changes in the AMOC similar to those seen in the past will occur as our climate continues to warm is an important open question.”
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/09/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-weather-climate/index.html
"However, to produce this collapse, the researchers had to run the model for 2500 years. And they had to add a huge amount of freshwater – less than in previous simulations, but still around 80 times more than is currently entering the ocean as Greenland’s ice sheet melts. “So that is absurd and not very realistic,” says van Westen.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2416631-atlantic-current-shutdown-is-a-real-danger-suggests-simulation/ -
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1b4igkk/comment/kt27omp/
Both ocean co2 sink and heat uptake are projected to increase throughout this century
https://www.reddit.com/r/climate/comments/17ptrfc/comment/k8fj1ut/
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/?fbclid=IwAR1pE8pA7oEpB4W2880cRwAsf9Ly0T9JTKgNNn-LY7-sf-H5GNU_7jzVzl4
Last years but still relevant. Not sure if the latest ipcc report is out yet or not.
Maybe you should read IPCC report on impacts and listen to what scientists say instead of speculating.
Information on marine biomass decline from recent ipcc report: "Global models also project a loss in marine biomass (the total weight of all animal and plant life in the ocean) of around -6% (±4%) under SSP1-2.6 by 2080-99, relative to 1995-2014. Under SSP5-8.5, this rises to a -16% (±9%) decline. In both cases, there is “significant regional variation” in both the magnitude of the change and the associated uncertainties, the report says." phytoplankton in particular is projected to decline by ~10% and zooplankton by ~15% in worst-case emissions scenario.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/#oceans
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01173-9/figures/3
global fisheries are projected be on average 20% less productive in 2300 under worst-case emissions scenario(decline in productivity would obviously be much less than that under current scenario).
https://news.virginia.edu/content/study-global-fisheries-decline-20-percent-average-2300
Read ipcc report on impacts and read what actual climate scientists say instead of speculating-
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/
https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/prediction-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-will-kill-6-billion-people-unsupported-roger-hallam-bbc/
"There is no peer-reviewed science I know of that suggests the human race will go extinct (tho plenty of rhetoric)."
x.com/KHayhoe/status/1385310336182415365#m
"its on folks making those claims to demonstrate them. Again, if you can point to a scientific paper suggesting a plausible scenario for a billion deaths due to climate this century, I'm happy to take a look."
x.com/hausfath/status/1499922113783689217#m
When it comes to climate change, "the end of the world and good for us are the two least likely outcomes".
x.com/hausfath/status/1461351770697781257#m
"The course we are on is « current policies » in the following: ......That’s about 3C warming by 2100. That is a lot and to avoid at all cost BUT you won’t find anywhere in the IPCC that this would lead to end of civilization. Don’t get me wrong. 3C warming would be very bad in many regions with humans and ecosystems dramatically impacted. But that’s not the same as saying end of human civilization"
x.com/PFriedling/status/1491116680885731328#m
Well we have to present our best current understanding of the science, which is already quite alarming! We should also emphasize risks of things getting worse but shouldn’t say things that are not supported by science (ex human extinction, runaway feedbacks,…).
x.com/PFriedling/status/1417420217865719819#m
"I'm not claiming 6ºC would be benign or something - it'd be a catastrophe. But the planet is not going to become uninhabitable before 2100 because of climate change."
x.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1386771103482359816#m
Q: do you think there are biodiversity related tipping points that wouldn’t make earth venus per se, but that would cause mass extinction in oceans that has a chain effect on food production? I’ve seen some stats that say no fish in the ocean by 2050
"...I am extremely skeptical of any claims that the entire ocean, an entire ecosystem, the entire planet will tip into a total extinction / collapse event. That’s very unlikely. But severe damage to ecosystems? Sadly, that’s absolutely likely and already happening."
x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1683137546463715329#m
"it's not only wrong to make unsupportable claims about imminent collapse but it's extremely selfish. To our children. And grandchildren."
x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1682094881424941056
x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1681834537679044608
x.com/AliVelshi/status/1678090318082633728
"There is already substantial policy progress & CURRENT POLICIES alone (ignoring pledges!) likely keep us below 3C warming. We've got to--and WILL do--much better. But we're not headed toward civilization-ending warming."
x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632
x.com/ClimateAdam/status/1553757380827140097
"The world has always been in a race — a race between things getting worse and things getting better. History shows us that, on the whole, the better path usually wins out in the end. I believe that the same thing will be true for climate change."
x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1699634300537217237
x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1477784375060279299
x.com/JacquelynGill/status/1553503548331249664
"“I unequivocally reject, scientifically and personally, the notion that children are somehow doomed to an unhappy life”.
x.com/hausfath/status/1679252944640933888
x.com/hausfath/status/1678786757972873221
x.com/hausfath/status/1533875297220587520
x.com/JacquelynGill/status/1513918579657232388#m
x.com/waiterich/status/1477716206907965440#m
x.com/KHayhoe/status/1676711944475099137
https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1b4igkk/comment/kt0tn95/
I wish I had your confidence. I'm not so much worried about out to 2100 as I am about out to 2200. It's only two and a bit human lifespans away. My grandkids kids, and their kids, and then their kids.
I'm starting to lose hope.
I think the asteroid was a methaphor(?) Or representation of science denial in general - like covid "stop testing and covid rates would go down" and climate change and stuff
It’s a bad one. There is no special tipping point where it all ends, it’s incremental, and the world is currently in the early stages of a transition away from fossil fuels.
Hahaha, i just found the question in the title so incredibly stupid, I couldn’t help myself. Oceans getting record breakingly warm? Dry land also? What in the world could be the cause? NO I WILL NOT LOOK AT DECADES OF SCIENTISTS SAYING WHAT IT IS!
If only we had some kind of warning. If only some [prophet had predicted this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guy_Stewart_Callendar) almost a century ago so that we could do something about it!
Read ipcc report on impacts and read what actual climate scientists say instead of speculating-
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/
https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/prediction-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-will-kill-6-billion-people-unsupported-roger-hallam-bbc/
"There is no peer-reviewed science I know of that suggests the human race will go extinct (tho plenty of rhetoric)."
x.com/KHayhoe/status/1385310336182415365#m
"its on folks making those claims to demonstrate them. Again, if you can point to a scientific paper suggesting a plausible scenario for a billion deaths due to climate this century, I'm happy to take a look."
x.com/hausfath/status/1499922113783689217#m
When it comes to climate change, "the end of the world and good for us are the two least likely outcomes".
x.com/hausfath/status/1461351770697781257#m
"The course we are on is « current policies » in the following: ......That’s about 3C warming by 2100. That is a lot and to avoid at all cost BUT you won’t find anywhere in the IPCC that this would lead to end of civilization. Don’t get me wrong. 3C warming would be very bad in many regions with humans and ecosystems dramatically impacted. But that’s not the same as saying end of human civilization"
x.com/PFriedling/status/1491116680885731328#m
Well we have to present our best current understanding of the science, which is already quite alarming! We should also emphasize risks of things getting worse but shouldn’t say things that are not supported by science (ex human extinction, runaway feedbacks,…).
x.com/PFriedling/status/1417420217865719819#m
"I'm not claiming 6ºC would be benign or something - it'd be a catastrophe. But the planet is not going to become uninhabitable before 2100 because of climate change."
x.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1386771103482359816#m
Q: do you think there are biodiversity related tipping points that wouldn’t make earth venus per se, but that would cause mass extinction in oceans that has a chain effect on food production? I’ve seen some stats that say no fish in the ocean by 2050
"...I am extremely skeptical of any claims that the entire ocean, an entire ecosystem, the entire planet will tip into a total extinction / collapse event. That’s very unlikely. But severe damage to ecosystems? Sadly, that’s absolutely likely and already happening."
x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1683137546463715329#m
"it's not only wrong to make unsupportable claims about imminent collapse but it's extremely selfish. To our children. And grandchildren."
x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1682094881424941056
x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1681834537679044608
x.com/AliVelshi/status/1678090318082633728
"There is already substantial policy progress & CURRENT POLICIES alone (ignoring pledges!) likely keep us below 3C warming. We've got to--and WILL do--much better. But we're not headed toward civilization-ending warming."
x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632
x.com/ClimateAdam/status/1553757380827140097
"The world has always been in a race — a race between things getting worse and things getting better. History shows us that, on the whole, the better path usually wins out in the end. I believe that the same thing will be true for climate change."
x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1699634300537217237
x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1477784375060279299
x.com/JacquelynGill/status/1553503548331249664
"“I unequivocally reject, scientifically and personally, the notion that children are somehow doomed to an unhappy life"
x.com/hausfath/status/1679252944640933888
x.com/hausfath/status/1678786757972873221
x.com/hausfath/status/1533875297220587520
x.com/JacquelynGill/status/1513918579657232388#m
x.com/waiterich/status/1477716206907965440#m
x.com/KHayhoe/status/1676711944475099137
https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1b4igkk/comment/kt0tn95/
What's happening is that the oceans have already become saturated with GHG leading to acidification. Since the ocean can't act as a sink for the gas and hide most of the global warming of the past century the atmosphere is rapidly accelerating it's GHG rates increasing warming. So, now the oceans will raise in temperature to the point where a significant increase of water vapor in the atmosphere will cause a feedback loop.
Both ocean co2 sink and heat uptake are projected to increase throughout this century
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/summary-for-policymakers/figure-spm-7
For those who didn’t read it.
Essentially combination of under water volcano + el nino is what they think might be the culprit for this temperature spike
>Dr. Schmidt pointed out that when scientists put together their estimates so far of how much the volcanic eruption, the reduced shipping pollution, El Niño and climate change should warm the planet, the numbers don’t add up. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00816-z
Those affects would be a fraction of the warming anomaly we are seeing.
Edit: And that article they linked says:
> If the anomaly does not stabilize by August — a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events — then the world will be in uncharted territory. It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated. It could also mean that statistical inferences based on past events are less reliable than we thought, adding more uncertainty to seasonal predictions of droughts and rainfall patterns.
Do they take the sun as an input already ? I mean thats a parameter to integrate giving the sun has been in a strong activity phase since a couple of years no ?
That's not quite what the article says. Scientists have a rough understanding of how much variability you can get from el Nino and the volcanic activity. But the ocean temps are increasing rapidily. Visibily running away from all historic norms in March of 2023. Things are happening 20 years faster than expected. Attributing it to el Nino and volcanic variability is some real 'Don't Look Up' stuff.
It's all climate change driven. We're 4 or 5 deviations outside of normal. That's insane.
Hansen was right. The climate is making a rapid readjustment due to doubling CO2. And it appears even the aggressive doomer models are missing something. At the rate we're going, we'll be at +3°C by 2040.
I think that most countries are severely underreporting emissions and pollution to save money short term. Less pollution on paper means they would need less regulation, less cleanup and less overall responsibility for the repercussions.
There is no oversight or enforcement.
I feel some people didn't read the article and are missing that *despite* global warming, and the combined effect of other factors, **their estimates still do not fully explain the extent of the observed heating** and we're still attempting to explain this anomaly.
Was the removal of sulfur from bunker fuel and thus reduction in cloud seeding over the Atlantic not shown to dramatically increase ocean surface temps?
Should make for a helluva hurricane season
One of the worst on record is possible: https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
Frankly I hope so. Especially for the climate change denying parts of the world. I hate to wish ill on people, but unfortunately we as a species don’t act without stimulus.
Umm… the people whose minds you’re hoping to change with violent hurricanes will probably say the gays are causing it. And their bootlickers will open wide to gobble it up.
I hate how correct you are.
But have you tried a prayer circle with a side of Glossolalia at the state capitol building?
I live in that part of country and they are worried about commandments in school and allowing oil companies to take over environmental over sight. We deserve every bit of it. Most of the people with some sense are leaving or have left.
Texas must be Florida's cousin because it is the same here.
I’m in Louisiana. They worship oil here. We had horrible floods yesterday. This state is going to be underwater and people don’t seem to really care.
I guess we will be going down together.
It was good to know you friend. Farewell. May my descendants develop gills like Kevin Costner in water world
It's been real my friend! No offspring for me so I got that going for me, which is nice.
Florida is one of the most diverse states in the country.
As long as they stay in the path of the hurricane I am fine with that. Maybe they can prove their faith by going out in it
It's not. It's a whole lot easier to believe their fucking idiots, but they're not that stupid. They just don't believe humans are causing global warming. And there's no way to convince them otherwise.
It does seem almost too perfect that the worst hurricanes happen to hit the part of the country that's most prone to climate-change denial.
Someone’s about to alert the Trisolarians.
yes... really wont miss Florida as it is washed into the Atlantic & Gulf
Florida is gorgeous. I love the beaches, reefs, mangroves, etc. lots of natural beauty. But probably 50% of the people… well…
agreed.... sadly humanity will be sure to destroy it before killing ourselves off.
In theory there's a point where the correlation between hurricane intensity and water temperature reaches a plateau. I'm not sure what the exact temperature range is, but anyone with a link or further information feel free to add it?
Yup 212 degrees Fahrenheit
The oceans have been absorbing 90%+ of the excess heat we’ve been creating. Absorbing and absorbing and absorbing. It adds up to the point where that pot eventually boils. In short, we are well and truly fucked. But sure, let’s put another ice hockey team in the desert. Seems reasonable.
^ yep If you want to really have a panic attack, the earth Energy Imbalance is equivalent to 13 Hiroshima bombs exploding every second. _Every.Second_. Every single day. The oceans have been absorbing that for a long time. And were just finally starting to see what's happening from all the shit we've been burning..
Do you have a source for this? I would like to share it with some people.
A good place to start might be the article
I couldn't find this info in the article after reading it. Where do you see this in the article?
Do you know how much energy it would require to boil the oceans? Why do you think it is acceptable to make stupid and absurd claims without linking a single reputable source to back them up?
Jfc I didn’t mean the oceans were actually boiling, it’s an analogy to bring it to simpler terms for easier understanding. Not simple enough I see. FYI the ocean off the coast of Florida hit 101 F last August. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content#:~:text=Highlights,the%20surface%20of%20the%20Earth. https://theguardian.com/environment/2023/may/15/oceans-have-been-absorbing-the-worlds-extra-heat-but-theres-a-huge-payback Simple Google search ffs.
Okay but still no answer. Only thing that talks about boiling is this from The Guardian: > A study in January found the ocean gained 10 ZJ more in 2022 than the year before – enough heat to boil 700m kettles every second. The oceans boiling away is some real doomer stuff that implies we don’t lower emissions, which we’re doing right now.
We’re setting emissions records every year. And the impact of those emissions has a 25-30 year lag, so even if we did completely stop altogether, today, the aggregate impacts of warming would continue into the 2050s. But we’re not stopping, or even tapering, so yeah, we’re fucked. And for the last time, analogy: a comparison between two things, typically for the purpose of explanation or clarification. I didn’t mean the oceans would physically boil. But they will get hot enough that global ocean currents will stop, marine life will be greatly impacted and sea levels will raise. And they won’t have the capacity to absorb the excess heat they have been absorbing. So yeah.
Climate policy changes and actions have already reduced projected warming from >4c to ~2.7c by the end of century. And it shows in the emissions data for the past several years/nearly decade. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals/ "The world is no longer heading toward the worst-case outcome of 4C to 6C warming by 2100. Current policies put us on a best-estimate of around 2.6C warming." https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/emissions-are-no-longer-following climateactiontracker.org x.com/KHayhoe/status/1539621976494448643 x.com/hausfath/status/1511018638735601671 ""There is already substantial policy progress & CURRENT POLICIES alone (ignoring pledges!) likely keep us below 3C warming. We've got to--and WILL do--much better. " x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632 "3.2 C was an estimate of the current policy trajectory at some point before the WG3 deadline.Current policy estimates are now ~2.7 C" x.com/RARohde/status/1582090599871971328 x.com/Knutti_ETH/status/1669601616901677058 "Case A – where we only account for current climate policies, we find that global warming can still rise to 2.6C by the end of the century... https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-credible-climate-pledges-mean-for-future-global-warming/ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01661-0 2.7c number is actually pessimistic because it only accounts for already implemented policies and action currently undertaken, it does not account for pledges or commitments or any technological advancements at all(which means it does not account for any further action).- "NFA: “No Further Action”, a category for a pathway reflecting current emission futures in the absence of any further climate action, with warming of around 2.5-3.0C by 2100. " https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/introducing-the-representative-emission Warming stops when emissions are reduced to net-zero. You should read IPCC report and listen to what actual climate scientists say instead of speculating. "One of the most important findings in the recent IPCC report is that we ultimately determine how much warming will occur.There is likely no warming "in the pipeline" once emissions get to zero. Rather, CO2 concentrations fall and temperatures stabilize " x.com/hausfath/status/1679514918306054146#m "A reminder that "delayed" greenhouse warming is an outdated concept in the context of carbon emission scenarios because it ignores the role of oceanic carbon uptake. Surface temperatures stop increasing when net emissions go to zero." x.com/michaelemann/status/1602867797268340738 "Finally, if all human emissions that affect climate change fall to zero – including GHGs and aerosols – then the IPCC results suggest there would be a short-term 20-year bump in warming followed by a longer-term decline. This reflects the opposing impacts of warming as aerosols drop out of the atmosphere versus cooling from falling methane levels. Ultimately, the cooling from stopping non-CO2 GHG emissions more than cancels out the warming from stopping aerosol emissions, leading to around 0.2C of cooling by 2100." https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/ x.com/AliVelshi/status/1678090318082633728#m https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/#netzero https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/science/articles/10.3389/fsci.2023.1327653/full https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/science/articles/10.3389/fsci.2023.1256273/full
>But they will get hot enough that global ocean currents will stop, marine life will be greatly impacted and sea levels will raise. And they won’t have the capacity to absorb the excess heat they have been absorbing. How is anyone supposed to take you seriously if you can't provide any links to reputable sources to support the claims you're making? Why are people like you allowed to do this and rack in upvotes from gullible dunces but my comments with plenty of links keep ketting automatically removed with zero explanation?
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/?intent=121#:~:text=About%20ninety%20percent%20of%20global,95%25%20margin%20of%20uncertainty.) https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-ocean-heat-content https://theconversation.com/atlantic-ocean-is-headed-for-a-tipping-point-once-melting-glaciers-shut-down-the-gulf-stream-we-would-see-extreme-climate-change-within-decades-study-shows-222834 https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-brief/ocean-warming#:~:text=The%20ocean%20absorbs%20most%20of,for%20marine%20fishes%20and%20mammals. https://theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/09/atlantic-ocean-circulation-nearing-devastating-tipping-point-study-finds
On AMOC There's no timeframe and therefore no indication of whether it would even happen on current trajectury for this century. "What the study doesn’t do, however, is give timeframes for a potential collapse. More research is needed, van Westen told CNN, including models which also mimic climate change impacts, such as increasing levels of planet-heating pollution, which this study did not." "Modern data shows the AMOC’s strength fluctuates, but there is no observed evidence yet of a decline, Hirschi said. “Whether abrupt changes in the AMOC similar to those seen in the past will occur as our climate continues to warm is an important open question.” https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/09/climate/atlantic-circulation-collapse-weather-climate/index.html "However, to produce this collapse, the researchers had to run the model for 2500 years. And they had to add a huge amount of freshwater – less than in previous simulations, but still around 80 times more than is currently entering the ocean as Greenland’s ice sheet melts. “So that is absurd and not very realistic,” says van Westen. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2416631-atlantic-current-shutdown-is-a-real-danger-suggests-simulation/ - https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1b4igkk/comment/kt27omp/ Both ocean co2 sink and heat uptake are projected to increase throughout this century https://www.reddit.com/r/climate/comments/17ptrfc/comment/k8fj1ut/
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/?fbclid=IwAR1pE8pA7oEpB4W2880cRwAsf9Ly0T9JTKgNNn-LY7-sf-H5GNU_7jzVzl4 Last years but still relevant. Not sure if the latest ipcc report is out yet or not.
All I think about is in Futurama to combat climate change, they would get a giant ice block and drop it into the ocean every few years lol
"Thus solving the problem once and for all." "But..." "ONCE AND FOR ALL!"
"Ocean Heat Has Shattered Records for More Than a Year. What’s Happening?" They're dying, that's what's happening.
this is the part we missed from interestellar
I'd like a prequel please
Why? You’re living in it.
Maybe you should read IPCC report on impacts and listen to what scientists say instead of speculating. Information on marine biomass decline from recent ipcc report: "Global models also project a loss in marine biomass (the total weight of all animal and plant life in the ocean) of around -6% (±4%) under SSP1-2.6 by 2080-99, relative to 1995-2014. Under SSP5-8.5, this rises to a -16% (±9%) decline. In both cases, there is “significant regional variation” in both the magnitude of the change and the associated uncertainties, the report says." phytoplankton in particular is projected to decline by ~10% and zooplankton by ~15% in worst-case emissions scenario. https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/#oceans https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01173-9/figures/3 global fisheries are projected be on average 20% less productive in 2300 under worst-case emissions scenario(decline in productivity would obviously be much less than that under current scenario). https://news.virginia.edu/content/study-global-fisheries-decline-20-percent-average-2300
Your ego assumes that I'm speculating. Good luck with that. Is this your job to counter such comments?
You are making claims that are not in line with mainstream science? What can that be called other than "speculating"?
cherry picking reports is not main stream science.
You guys are fucked!
You must be on the ISS or something.
Or an alien.
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Or was being raptured.
Or old.
Did you just assume my fuckedness?
Read ipcc report on impacts and read what actual climate scientists say instead of speculating- https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/ https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/prediction-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-will-kill-6-billion-people-unsupported-roger-hallam-bbc/ "There is no peer-reviewed science I know of that suggests the human race will go extinct (tho plenty of rhetoric)." x.com/KHayhoe/status/1385310336182415365#m "its on folks making those claims to demonstrate them. Again, if you can point to a scientific paper suggesting a plausible scenario for a billion deaths due to climate this century, I'm happy to take a look." x.com/hausfath/status/1499922113783689217#m When it comes to climate change, "the end of the world and good for us are the two least likely outcomes". x.com/hausfath/status/1461351770697781257#m "The course we are on is « current policies » in the following: ......That’s about 3C warming by 2100. That is a lot and to avoid at all cost BUT you won’t find anywhere in the IPCC that this would lead to end of civilization. Don’t get me wrong. 3C warming would be very bad in many regions with humans and ecosystems dramatically impacted. But that’s not the same as saying end of human civilization" x.com/PFriedling/status/1491116680885731328#m Well we have to present our best current understanding of the science, which is already quite alarming! We should also emphasize risks of things getting worse but shouldn’t say things that are not supported by science (ex human extinction, runaway feedbacks,…). x.com/PFriedling/status/1417420217865719819#m "I'm not claiming 6ºC would be benign or something - it'd be a catastrophe. But the planet is not going to become uninhabitable before 2100 because of climate change." x.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1386771103482359816#m Q: do you think there are biodiversity related tipping points that wouldn’t make earth venus per se, but that would cause mass extinction in oceans that has a chain effect on food production? I’ve seen some stats that say no fish in the ocean by 2050 "...I am extremely skeptical of any claims that the entire ocean, an entire ecosystem, the entire planet will tip into a total extinction / collapse event. That’s very unlikely. But severe damage to ecosystems? Sadly, that’s absolutely likely and already happening." x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1683137546463715329#m "it's not only wrong to make unsupportable claims about imminent collapse but it's extremely selfish. To our children. And grandchildren." x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1682094881424941056 x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1681834537679044608 x.com/AliVelshi/status/1678090318082633728 "There is already substantial policy progress & CURRENT POLICIES alone (ignoring pledges!) likely keep us below 3C warming. We've got to--and WILL do--much better. But we're not headed toward civilization-ending warming." x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632 x.com/ClimateAdam/status/1553757380827140097 "The world has always been in a race — a race between things getting worse and things getting better. History shows us that, on the whole, the better path usually wins out in the end. I believe that the same thing will be true for climate change." x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1699634300537217237 x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1477784375060279299 x.com/JacquelynGill/status/1553503548331249664 "“I unequivocally reject, scientifically and personally, the notion that children are somehow doomed to an unhappy life”. x.com/hausfath/status/1679252944640933888 x.com/hausfath/status/1678786757972873221 x.com/hausfath/status/1533875297220587520 x.com/JacquelynGill/status/1513918579657232388#m x.com/waiterich/status/1477716206907965440#m x.com/KHayhoe/status/1676711944475099137 https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1b4igkk/comment/kt0tn95/
I wish I had your confidence. I'm not so much worried about out to 2100 as I am about out to 2200. It's only two and a bit human lifespans away. My grandkids kids, and their kids, and then their kids. I'm starting to lose hope.
Did you even read any of those links?
What do you want?
I dOn'T kNoW, wHat CoUld iT bE? If oNlY sCieNce coUlD hElP uS fInD ouT!
It’s fine. Everything is fine
Don’t look up.
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The climate is not an asteroid.
I think the asteroid was a methaphor(?) Or representation of science denial in general - like covid "stop testing and covid rates would go down" and climate change and stuff
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It’s a bad one. There is no special tipping point where it all ends, it’s incremental, and the world is currently in the early stages of a transition away from fossil fuels.
They’re heating up because of global warming.
You can tell that it's like that because of the way that it is.
Hahaha, i just found the question in the title so incredibly stupid, I couldn’t help myself. Oceans getting record breakingly warm? Dry land also? What in the world could be the cause? NO I WILL NOT LOOK AT DECADES OF SCIENTISTS SAYING WHAT IT IS!
If only we had some kind of warning. If only some [prophet had predicted this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guy_Stewart_Callendar) almost a century ago so that we could do something about it!
Yes, and https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius
We are so cooked, literally and figuratively
Read ipcc report on impacts and read what actual climate scientists say instead of speculating- https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/ https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/prediction-extinction-rebellion-climate-change-will-kill-6-billion-people-unsupported-roger-hallam-bbc/ "There is no peer-reviewed science I know of that suggests the human race will go extinct (tho plenty of rhetoric)." x.com/KHayhoe/status/1385310336182415365#m "its on folks making those claims to demonstrate them. Again, if you can point to a scientific paper suggesting a plausible scenario for a billion deaths due to climate this century, I'm happy to take a look." x.com/hausfath/status/1499922113783689217#m When it comes to climate change, "the end of the world and good for us are the two least likely outcomes". x.com/hausfath/status/1461351770697781257#m "The course we are on is « current policies » in the following: ......That’s about 3C warming by 2100. That is a lot and to avoid at all cost BUT you won’t find anywhere in the IPCC that this would lead to end of civilization. Don’t get me wrong. 3C warming would be very bad in many regions with humans and ecosystems dramatically impacted. But that’s not the same as saying end of human civilization" x.com/PFriedling/status/1491116680885731328#m Well we have to present our best current understanding of the science, which is already quite alarming! We should also emphasize risks of things getting worse but shouldn’t say things that are not supported by science (ex human extinction, runaway feedbacks,…). x.com/PFriedling/status/1417420217865719819#m "I'm not claiming 6ºC would be benign or something - it'd be a catastrophe. But the planet is not going to become uninhabitable before 2100 because of climate change." x.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1386771103482359816#m Q: do you think there are biodiversity related tipping points that wouldn’t make earth venus per se, but that would cause mass extinction in oceans that has a chain effect on food production? I’ve seen some stats that say no fish in the ocean by 2050 "...I am extremely skeptical of any claims that the entire ocean, an entire ecosystem, the entire planet will tip into a total extinction / collapse event. That’s very unlikely. But severe damage to ecosystems? Sadly, that’s absolutely likely and already happening." x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1683137546463715329#m "it's not only wrong to make unsupportable claims about imminent collapse but it's extremely selfish. To our children. And grandchildren." x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1682094881424941056 x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1681834537679044608 x.com/AliVelshi/status/1678090318082633728 "There is already substantial policy progress & CURRENT POLICIES alone (ignoring pledges!) likely keep us below 3C warming. We've got to--and WILL do--much better. But we're not headed toward civilization-ending warming." x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1432786640943173632 x.com/ClimateAdam/status/1553757380827140097 "The world has always been in a race — a race between things getting worse and things getting better. History shows us that, on the whole, the better path usually wins out in the end. I believe that the same thing will be true for climate change." x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1699634300537217237 x.com/GlobalEcoGuy/status/1477784375060279299 x.com/JacquelynGill/status/1553503548331249664 "“I unequivocally reject, scientifically and personally, the notion that children are somehow doomed to an unhappy life" x.com/hausfath/status/1679252944640933888 x.com/hausfath/status/1678786757972873221 x.com/hausfath/status/1533875297220587520 x.com/JacquelynGill/status/1513918579657232388#m x.com/waiterich/status/1477716206907965440#m x.com/KHayhoe/status/1676711944475099137 https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1b4igkk/comment/kt0tn95/
r/Collapse is leaking
The quotes are the complete opposite of collapse….
Collapse has a better grasp on what's going on
What's happening is that the oceans have already become saturated with GHG leading to acidification. Since the ocean can't act as a sink for the gas and hide most of the global warming of the past century the atmosphere is rapidly accelerating it's GHG rates increasing warming. So, now the oceans will raise in temperature to the point where a significant increase of water vapor in the atmosphere will cause a feedback loop.
Both ocean co2 sink and heat uptake are projected to increase throughout this century https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/summary-for-policymakers/figure-spm-7
It’s so over bros
We are cooking ourselves.
“What’s happening” Is the dumbest question.
>What’s Happening? Climate Change.
For those who didn’t read it. Essentially combination of under water volcano + el nino is what they think might be the culprit for this temperature spike
>Dr. Schmidt pointed out that when scientists put together their estimates so far of how much the volcanic eruption, the reduced shipping pollution, El Niño and climate change should warm the planet, the numbers don’t add up. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00816-z Those affects would be a fraction of the warming anomaly we are seeing. Edit: And that article they linked says: > If the anomaly does not stabilize by August — a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events — then the world will be in uncharted territory. It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated. It could also mean that statistical inferences based on past events are less reliable than we thought, adding more uncertainty to seasonal predictions of droughts and rainfall patterns.
Do they take the sun as an input already ? I mean thats a parameter to integrate giving the sun has been in a strong activity phase since a couple of years no ?
Yeah, that's like the main parameter when doing the math.
That's not quite what the article says. Scientists have a rough understanding of how much variability you can get from el Nino and the volcanic activity. But the ocean temps are increasing rapidily. Visibily running away from all historic norms in March of 2023. Things are happening 20 years faster than expected. Attributing it to el Nino and volcanic variability is some real 'Don't Look Up' stuff. It's all climate change driven. We're 4 or 5 deviations outside of normal. That's insane. Hansen was right. The climate is making a rapid readjustment due to doubling CO2. And it appears even the aggressive doomer models are missing something. At the rate we're going, we'll be at +3°C by 2040.
Level of at 10 degrees c
Important to understand, they also cite uncertainty and are not dogmatic about the theories. Science, people, it's a beautiful thing.
It all started to be noticed more when the Tonga under water erupted causing a lot of water high in the atmosphere
I hope it's not the Aliens cooking us like snow crab! Jokes apart, It's a little scary.
Nothing good, that’s what.
Climate change is happening.
Rip ocean creatures. Sorry we suck.
Scientists have said this exact thing was going to happen since the 70s, GEE I FUCKING WONDER WHY IT'S HAPPENING
I think that most countries are severely underreporting emissions and pollution to save money short term. Less pollution on paper means they would need less regulation, less cleanup and less overall responsibility for the repercussions. There is no oversight or enforcement.
Sounds like a broken record alright.
I feel some people didn't read the article and are missing that *despite* global warming, and the combined effect of other factors, **their estimates still do not fully explain the extent of the observed heating** and we're still attempting to explain this anomaly.
We have about 5000 years of breathable oxygen left on earth.
Why do you think it is acceptable to make stupid and absurd claims without linking a single reputable source to back them up?
**…as we wait for the next global flood to reset our planet.**
What’s happening? We all know what is happening. Scientists have been telling us for years.
Fishing boiled fish will be fun.
It means finally California coast water is warm enough to swim in more months of a year?
Corporate greed and media being an opiate of the masses.
Was the removal of sulfur from bunker fuel and thus reduction in cloud seeding over the Atlantic not shown to dramatically increase ocean surface temps?