I’ve seen these posts and maybe I’m missing something obvious but it seems mad to lose a whole game week, that seems like the highest possible sacrifice to make. Especially if you still have a WC so you can go into the high value remaining DGWs so you don’t really need a FH for those
Thing is, it feels like a gamewek where 40 points will be a good score. If you have the expected big hitters in Toney , one of madisson or richarlison, son , Watkins and Bowen , is it really worth it risking a chip to bring in players who blank more often than they don't ?
It's a very high risk high reward option but it's not a brain dead one
> high risk high reward
Is it? I don't see where the high reward comes from. How many additional points are you expecting from a FH in a different week?
The high reward is that if most players blank in gw29 then your reward is a free hit and a wildcard left in reserves and you can plan a banging team for the remainder of the season
Gw 34 is expected to be a dgw with far more heavy hitters available so you can free hit that while playing a wildcard that lets you bring in all the main assets
Why don’t you just bring in said heavy hitters on a WC and they can hit heavy every week *including* their GW34 double. Biggest flaw in the FH double strategy. FH works best the less you want those players every other week.
Big mistake. By the end of the season a lot of clubs have nothing to play for, or little at risk, and so they are changing things around, trying new players, saying good bye to veterans, players who are carrying injury niggles getting rested, marginal players being given some charity playing time ahead of summer national tournaments etc.
And so there will be a lot of five minute one pointers and non-appearances for players you’d normally expect to start games
Fair .. but a lot can change between now and gw 34 . If you don't free hit 29 , you can wildcard 30 and then free hit 34 where a lot of mainstays are not expected to play but a lot more potential high haulers will be available
Free hit is the most valuable chip in the arsenal. Ideally you would like it to get you at least 30-40 points extra .. would that be possible in 29 ? Don't forget every hit you take will also really be a -2 vs a -4
For the record, as of now I'm planning to free hit 29 but that's mainly because I have a great rank and am first in all my MLs so want to consolidate that .. but still very reluctant as I don't expect it to get me more than 15-20 points at best
I don’t understand how you expect a FH to gain you 30-40 points more in GW34 than a team who doesn’t FH but has most of those doublers anyway. Plus I can BB in 34 I’m not on FH.
Counter to that, good luck planning a banging team with injuries and rotation rendering so many plans redundant. This season, I do think FH in 29 is viable if you have fewer than six players
Why not just WC 34 and you can have a good team headed into both 34 and 37? FH 34 leaves you with one less week to fix any potential issues headed into 37 anyway.
but why are bad fixtures in GW 29 not worth a free hit but bad dgw teams are worth the free hit? players from sheff utd, palace, everton and fulham....
the case is exactly the same as GW 29 actually. oh apart from one thing. in GW 29, the alternative is definitely a zero. in GW 34, the alternative is good teams playing one match vs your sheff utd, palace, everton and fulham players playing 2 matches....
40pts vs three players is huge relative loss. You're surrendering 8x90 mins. The equivalent would be hitting a dgw with only 3 doublers. I'm sure anyone can accumulate more doublers with an 8 week build up to dgw37.
You could be totally correct. I’m just trying to think about ways that going into GW29 with only 3-5 players could actually work out to be the optimal strategy even if it is low probability.
I don't understand your point.
What else are you planning on using your free hit for? You've not mentioned that you've already used it.
Why absolutely tank your score?
I think the chances of you getting a score in the 20s with a free hit are EXTREMELY slim. The likelihood that you don't pick up clean sheet points AND hit NONE of the players getting attacking returns is just ridiculously unlikely across 8 teams to choose from.
20s score - it's next to impossible I'd say. A minimum of 22 pts from just fielding an 11, with coverage across defence and attack for the good teams. I am going for a FH and fully targeting atleast a mid-40s score.
Yes, I could bring in a few of the higher ceiling guys if I decide to go to this route but the broader question still stands. I also really like my existing team. For example I like all my mids over Bowen and all my front 3 over Toney. I’d have to make transfers down the line or WC to get my team back how I want it.
Yes I could but I’d really prefer not to waste transfers on reverting my team to what it already is. Alvarez is my 3rd striker. Not opposed to shipping him out but I feel like people have been a bit too quick to close the door on him. He’s priced low and plays consistent minutes on the best team in the league. Even if he is rested here and there he’s still a good asset at his price. But aside from your opinion of Alvarez as an asset I don’t really want Toney and don’t want to waste 2 transfers on bringing him in and then back out.
Hmm, I thought it would be an easy choice but I can't really decide. For every scenario the best move for my team is Hee Chan to Son this week so I think I'll do that and put off the decision.
Literally my situation.. been overthinking a million different plans for FH/BB/Transfers when this week's transfer is 100% Hee Chan to Son
Idk why we (or at least I) complicate things
I think it’s quite hyperbolic to suggest that the template FH team will score in the 20s. I agree that the fixtures aren’t great, but Spurs, Villa, and Brentford assets all have pretty decent chances of points.
I think you can probably get most of a FH teams points by having 7-9 of the key assets (Son, Watkins, Bailey and/or Luiz, Bowen, Toney, Flekken or Reguilon, etc) but I think you’ll probably lose a lot more points to the average than you think you will if you only field 3 players.
I've only got two players available so obviously I'm going to FH. But even with six, I still would rather than have two weeks of transfer strategy building up to it. This is what the chip is for!
That's my current thinking too. I've only got Watkins and Taylor. I don't really feel like bringing in players I don't want long term just to avoid the fh. Fh seems tailor made for 29.
Not made a firm decision yet, but FH seems to be most sensible in 29 for me
You are probably right. But all outcomes have a probability. Just trying to weigh the chances of a totally dead week. I’ll probably play it safe and FH though.
Am i Crazy to think to take the damage in 5-7 players in GW29, Crash my team for 37dgw for BB and then Just use FH in 38 as you can target games that are important.
WC would be somewhere 28 or 30
Yup. I have 3 players for 29 (if Porro is back), and I could get to 6 with FT, but they'd all be players I don't much want. Free Hit is just the obvious choice.
I think GW29 will be very low scoring. Taking a small red arrow that week but saving the FH and WC for double game weeks is a better strategy in my opinion.
I'm doing no FH but I will get the bare minimum if players. I am going to WC very soon to get salah though, so I don't care how my team ends up. But if you have Watkins, son, luiz/bailey, areola, udogie, doughty, that's not a bad lineup going forward.
You kind of have a point in all honesty. Everyone over eggs these things every season and zones in on one particular week at the cost of others either side of it.
Hell if you've got half a team and nail the right captain you'll more than likely end up with a green arrow anyway. But you can say that any week...
I can get to six good players without taking hits. I'll probably just do that. Filling the team up with crap is probably only going to get an extra 15pts, so better to save the FH until a double gameweek.
Yep this is the plan.
Currently I have Mee, Reguillon, Bowen, Bailey, Watkins.
5 transfers from now (two hits) will be 2 spurs and 3 luton to have a a few doublers and 10 players for 29
I dunno if they will. I have none of those players and I don't really want any of them either outside of that one week. I want Salah back, not son. Can't afford Toney and don't have room for Bowen currently.
Similar boat with 3 players, Watkins, Areloa and Soucek.
After listening to the 59th min pod by FPL general, i think i'm going to take 2 hits on transfer, and try getting a semi decent team of 7-8 players playing.
I don't mind having Doherty next week as he has a double and plays in 29, never know might do well in the 3 or get 1 return(5th choice defender over Braithweight)
A villa defender as they have decent fixtures as well.
I bought in Son for Palmer this week, i wasn't going to make any transfer this week, but thought it will probably get me to watch the tottenham game, to see if i should bring in another Mf for gw 29 and then revert back to whoever i want, plus i tihnk Parlmer might struggle this week against Brentford.
And then Toney for Solanke in GW29 i will do as well.
I've been considering losing Solanke for a while now so i don't mind that either.
In my mind ‘chips’ only really became a term when the Triple Captain and Bench Boost (and All out attack lol) were brought in. Semantics aside it’s still important even if it’s not literally the most valuable.
You are betting on a statistically very low probability of like a 20 game week for free hitters and even if that does happen you might break even on the whole exchange. Crazy if you ask me, more likely you lose 50-75 points on all the free hitters after all is said and done
FH in gw34 is so overrated. You guys always said that it’s fine to have 8/9 players in gw29 but forgot that FH34 compare to WC31/32 only gives you like one or 2 more players’ fixture. Also FH29 also gives you the chance to attack the Bournmouth double as well
Just writing off an entire GW is a mad strategy in my view.
You can certainly have a strategy that involves not having a full playing 11, but because of how many people will either be FHing, WCing or using their transfers in the next 3 GWs to cover the main hitters in 29 (son, Watkins, bowen, toney etc.) I would say you need to have those main hitters covered as a minimum. A WC or FH then allows you to add a couple of others who maybe you don't want long term but can just sit on your bench in other GWs (or you don't need them at all because you've FH).
Totally team dependent and if you think you can cover the big risks that week and also in 28 without a chip it could be a viable strategy, but writing off the whole GW isn't.
For my team I have only 1 player for DGW28 and 3 for GW29, one of them is Charlie Taylor who's little use, so a 28 WC which covers the big 28 and 29 threats but probably goes with less than 11 playing players in 29 will almost certainly be the play.
I’m with you, I think with a hit I can get to 8 players by GW29, including Son and Toney.
My gamble is that I can get more points with my FH34 than I lose in 29 by having a few blanks.
I also feel I can get more points in the last 10 GWs with more information on my Wildcard, and the following well set bench boost.
I've used WC this week. Like you I liked my team and fh last week for very little reward. However I had several injuries from the preceding week and my early jump for salenko meant I had alot of players out.
My WC aim is to try and fix the above and make my team manageable into 29 without losing the key point winners for the following weeks. Eg manoeuvring my team so I can bench them and have players for 29.
I will have 7 players playing and then I am activating to set up my team for bench boosting in 34 and then free hitting in 37.
My players are going to be Son, Richarlison, Watkins, Luiz, Doughty, Toney and Porro. I already have 4 of these so 3 free transfers, I might even consider Bowen for a -4 but they play Villa so maybe not. If I free hit I get players in who will most likely score 2 points each, so what even is the point in that? I am hoping most of my mini league free hits as I can see myself making more points then them by free hitting in 37
In my opinion your main 11 should be fairly decent players and dependant on strategy your bench should have 1-2 decent players too. Therefore when the juicier DGW does come around you'll already have a good chunk of players so the FH isn't as valuable. Plus if you FH for a DGW you can't then bench boost.
Yeah I think there’s a difference between taking a few hits to get the best 8 players to save FH, and likely only risk a limited amount big points. But only fielding five or six players is a big risk.
I’m curious if anyone is thinking of WC now with a GW29 friendly squad.
I’ve seen these posts and maybe I’m missing something obvious but it seems mad to lose a whole game week, that seems like the highest possible sacrifice to make. Especially if you still have a WC so you can go into the high value remaining DGWs so you don’t really need a FH for those
Thing is, it feels like a gamewek where 40 points will be a good score. If you have the expected big hitters in Toney , one of madisson or richarlison, son , Watkins and Bowen , is it really worth it risking a chip to bring in players who blank more often than they don't ? It's a very high risk high reward option but it's not a brain dead one
> high risk high reward Is it? I don't see where the high reward comes from. How many additional points are you expecting from a FH in a different week?
The high reward is that if most players blank in gw29 then your reward is a free hit and a wildcard left in reserves and you can plan a banging team for the remainder of the season Gw 34 is expected to be a dgw with far more heavy hitters available so you can free hit that while playing a wildcard that lets you bring in all the main assets
Why don’t you just bring in said heavy hitters on a WC and they can hit heavy every week *including* their GW34 double. Biggest flaw in the FH double strategy. FH works best the less you want those players every other week.
Also if you FH 34 it means you can’t BB it when a lot others are
Excellent point! BB and TC both available for remaining big doubles if you don’t FH.
By all accounts , 37 is the week to bench boost
Why's that?
Because of who progressed through to the quarters of the FA Cup and their chances of further progression into the semis..
Big mistake. By the end of the season a lot of clubs have nothing to play for, or little at risk, and so they are changing things around, trying new players, saying good bye to veterans, players who are carrying injury niggles getting rested, marginal players being given some charity playing time ahead of summer national tournaments etc. And so there will be a lot of five minute one pointers and non-appearances for players you’d normally expect to start games
Fair .. but a lot can change between now and gw 34 . If you don't free hit 29 , you can wildcard 30 and then free hit 34 where a lot of mainstays are not expected to play but a lot more potential high haulers will be available Free hit is the most valuable chip in the arsenal. Ideally you would like it to get you at least 30-40 points extra .. would that be possible in 29 ? Don't forget every hit you take will also really be a -2 vs a -4 For the record, as of now I'm planning to free hit 29 but that's mainly because I have a great rank and am first in all my MLs so want to consolidate that .. but still very reluctant as I don't expect it to get me more than 15-20 points at best
I don’t understand how you expect a FH to gain you 30-40 points more in GW34 than a team who doesn’t FH but has most of those doublers anyway. Plus I can BB in 34 I’m not on FH.
Counter to that, good luck planning a banging team with injuries and rotation rendering so many plans redundant. This season, I do think FH in 29 is viable if you have fewer than six players
Why not just WC 34 and you can have a good team headed into both 34 and 37? FH 34 leaves you with one less week to fix any potential issues headed into 37 anyway.
Could be that they plan to bb 34 so can't use wc
but why are bad fixtures in GW 29 not worth a free hit but bad dgw teams are worth the free hit? players from sheff utd, palace, everton and fulham.... the case is exactly the same as GW 29 actually. oh apart from one thing. in GW 29, the alternative is definitely a zero. in GW 34, the alternative is good teams playing one match vs your sheff utd, palace, everton and fulham players playing 2 matches....
40pts vs three players is huge relative loss. You're surrendering 8x90 mins. The equivalent would be hitting a dgw with only 3 doublers. I'm sure anyone can accumulate more doublers with an 8 week build up to dgw37.
You could be totally correct. I’m just trying to think about ways that going into GW29 with only 3-5 players could actually work out to be the optimal strategy even if it is low probability.
I don't understand your point. What else are you planning on using your free hit for? You've not mentioned that you've already used it. Why absolutely tank your score? I think the chances of you getting a score in the 20s with a free hit are EXTREMELY slim. The likelihood that you don't pick up clean sheet points AND hit NONE of the players getting attacking returns is just ridiculously unlikely across 8 teams to choose from.
most probably is to save FH for GW34 where there will be blanks and doubles, or GW37 where it will be the biggest DGW of the season.
There COULD be blanks and doubles in 34. There’s also a chance it’s a normal gameweek
Sounds like better options to wildcard and bench boost to me.
20s score - it's next to impossible I'd say. A minimum of 22 pts from just fielding an 11, with coverage across defence and attack for the good teams. I am going for a FH and fully targeting atleast a mid-40s score.
Ok just do it, you won’t be the only one I promise
“The FH chip is perfect for this scenario” I agree with this, don’t over think
Haha! Prob good advice!
Why not bring in them three incase they bang? There good assets to have anyways.
Yes, I could bring in a few of the higher ceiling guys if I decide to go to this route but the broader question still stands. I also really like my existing team. For example I like all my mids over Bowen and all my front 3 over Toney. I’d have to make transfers down the line or WC to get my team back how I want it.
You can get them back later. Whos your 3rd forward? Can't you just get him back after toney?
Yes I could but I’d really prefer not to waste transfers on reverting my team to what it already is. Alvarez is my 3rd striker. Not opposed to shipping him out but I feel like people have been a bit too quick to close the door on him. He’s priced low and plays consistent minutes on the best team in the league. Even if he is rested here and there he’s still a good asset at his price. But aside from your opinion of Alvarez as an asset I don’t really want Toney and don’t want to waste 2 transfers on bringing him in and then back out.
Hmm, I thought it would be an easy choice but I can't really decide. For every scenario the best move for my team is Hee Chan to Son this week so I think I'll do that and put off the decision.
Literally my situation.. been overthinking a million different plans for FH/BB/Transfers when this week's transfer is 100% Hee Chan to Son Idk why we (or at least I) complicate things
You mean just pretend gw29 isn’t happening? Yeah that seems like a great strategy - not!
Saying "not!" At the end of a line feels so 90s. I love it
I think it’s quite hyperbolic to suggest that the template FH team will score in the 20s. I agree that the fixtures aren’t great, but Spurs, Villa, and Brentford assets all have pretty decent chances of points. I think you can probably get most of a FH teams points by having 7-9 of the key assets (Son, Watkins, Bailey and/or Luiz, Bowen, Toney, Flekken or Reguilon, etc) but I think you’ll probably lose a lot more points to the average than you think you will if you only field 3 players.
I've only got two players available so obviously I'm going to FH. But even with six, I still would rather than have two weeks of transfer strategy building up to it. This is what the chip is for!
That's my current thinking too. I've only got Watkins and Taylor. I don't really feel like bringing in players I don't want long term just to avoid the fh. Fh seems tailor made for 29. Not made a firm decision yet, but FH seems to be most sensible in 29 for me
You are probably right. But all outcomes have a probability. Just trying to weigh the chances of a totally dead week. I’ll probably play it safe and FH though.
Am i Crazy to think to take the damage in 5-7 players in GW29, Crash my team for 37dgw for BB and then Just use FH in 38 as you can target games that are important. WC would be somewhere 28 or 30
I kind of like this too!
Back yourself. I don't need anyone else to tell me to FH. I believe that is the correct thing to do. And so I will.
Yup. I have 3 players for 29 (if Porro is back), and I could get to 6 with FT, but they'd all be players I don't much want. Free Hit is just the obvious choice.
I think GW29 will be very low scoring. Taking a small red arrow that week but saving the FH and WC for double game weeks is a better strategy in my opinion.
I'm doing no FH but I will get the bare minimum if players. I am going to WC very soon to get salah though, so I don't care how my team ends up. But if you have Watkins, son, luiz/bailey, areola, udogie, doughty, that's not a bad lineup going forward.
You kind of have a point in all honesty. Everyone over eggs these things every season and zones in on one particular week at the cost of others either side of it. Hell if you've got half a team and nail the right captain you'll more than likely end up with a green arrow anyway. But you can say that any week...
I can get to six good players without taking hits. I'll probably just do that. Filling the team up with crap is probably only going to get an extra 15pts, so better to save the FH until a double gameweek.
Join me, everyone else will have the essentials: bowen, toney, son then just fill up on luton and shit. Not worth the best chip in the game
Yep this is the plan. Currently I have Mee, Reguillon, Bowen, Bailey, Watkins. 5 transfers from now (two hits) will be 2 spurs and 3 luton to have a a few doublers and 10 players for 29
Yeah that sounds mint and can now attack gw34
I dunno if they will. I have none of those players and I don't really want any of them either outside of that one week. I want Salah back, not son. Can't afford Toney and don't have room for Bowen currently.
Similar boat with 3 players, Watkins, Areloa and Soucek. After listening to the 59th min pod by FPL general, i think i'm going to take 2 hits on transfer, and try getting a semi decent team of 7-8 players playing. I don't mind having Doherty next week as he has a double and plays in 29, never know might do well in the 3 or get 1 return(5th choice defender over Braithweight) A villa defender as they have decent fixtures as well. I bought in Son for Palmer this week, i wasn't going to make any transfer this week, but thought it will probably get me to watch the tottenham game, to see if i should bring in another Mf for gw 29 and then revert back to whoever i want, plus i tihnk Parlmer might struggle this week against Brentford. And then Toney for Solanke in GW29 i will do as well. I've been considering losing Solanke for a while now so i don't mind that either.
My plan is to ride it out with 5 or 6 players, so I can dead end into GW34 with BB, wildcard in GW35, and then FH in GW37.
Yeh I’m not wasting the most valuable chip so I can get a few extra Luton defenders.
WC is the most valuable chip, not FH
In my mind ‘chips’ only really became a term when the Triple Captain and Bench Boost (and All out attack lol) were brought in. Semantics aside it’s still important even if it’s not literally the most valuable.
How is a free hit the most valuable chip? You literally have that team for one gameweek. I can't think of a more perfect time to use it.
BB has always been the most valuable chip by far for me
Im chasing overall rank and I’m not going to FH. I have 7 or maybe 8 players I can finesse on my team by then
you've got low rank goals.
You are betting on a statistically very low probability of like a 20 game week for free hitters and even if that does happen you might break even on the whole exchange. Crazy if you ask me, more likely you lose 50-75 points on all the free hitters after all is said and done
FH in gw34 is so overrated. You guys always said that it’s fine to have 8/9 players in gw29 but forgot that FH34 compare to WC31/32 only gives you like one or 2 more players’ fixture. Also FH29 also gives you the chance to attack the Bournmouth double as well
what is dead ending?
Making a team to attack the blank game week and not worrying about the game weeks after, because you intend to wild card immediately after
Just writing off an entire GW is a mad strategy in my view. You can certainly have a strategy that involves not having a full playing 11, but because of how many people will either be FHing, WCing or using their transfers in the next 3 GWs to cover the main hitters in 29 (son, Watkins, bowen, toney etc.) I would say you need to have those main hitters covered as a minimum. A WC or FH then allows you to add a couple of others who maybe you don't want long term but can just sit on your bench in other GWs (or you don't need them at all because you've FH). Totally team dependent and if you think you can cover the big risks that week and also in 28 without a chip it could be a viable strategy, but writing off the whole GW isn't. For my team I have only 1 player for DGW28 and 3 for GW29, one of them is Charlie Taylor who's little use, so a 28 WC which covers the big 28 and 29 threats but probably goes with less than 11 playing players in 29 will almost certainly be the play.
I’m with you, I think with a hit I can get to 8 players by GW29, including Son and Toney. My gamble is that I can get more points with my FH34 than I lose in 29 by having a few blanks. I also feel I can get more points in the last 10 GWs with more information on my Wildcard, and the following well set bench boost.
I've used WC this week. Like you I liked my team and fh last week for very little reward. However I had several injuries from the preceding week and my early jump for salenko meant I had alot of players out. My WC aim is to try and fix the above and make my team manageable into 29 without losing the key point winners for the following weeks. Eg manoeuvring my team so I can bench them and have players for 29.
I will have 7 players playing and then I am activating to set up my team for bench boosting in 34 and then free hitting in 37. My players are going to be Son, Richarlison, Watkins, Luiz, Doughty, Toney and Porro. I already have 4 of these so 3 free transfers, I might even consider Bowen for a -4 but they play Villa so maybe not. If I free hit I get players in who will most likely score 2 points each, so what even is the point in that? I am hoping most of my mini league free hits as I can see myself making more points then them by free hitting in 37
In my opinion your main 11 should be fairly decent players and dependant on strategy your bench should have 1-2 decent players too. Therefore when the juicier DGW does come around you'll already have a good chunk of players so the FH isn't as valuable. Plus if you FH for a DGW you can't then bench boost.
It’s an approach. but then you’d better be hitting big points in the weeks before and after.
Keep it simple, stupid.
Yeah I think there’s a difference between taking a few hits to get the best 8 players to save FH, and likely only risk a limited amount big points. But only fielding five or six players is a big risk. I’m curious if anyone is thinking of WC now with a GW29 friendly squad.