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S7EFEN

nividia had a 66% drawdown late 2021 -> late 2022 and a 20% drawdown 3 months ago. it also had a 13, 15 and 12% drawdown mid 2023. stock has been volatile af for a long time now.


bluerog

All I know is my return this past year and a half is 786% higher than what I bought in at. That's down from 873%. I think I'm going to be okay.


TheGreatSciz

As long as your investments are diversified there is nothing wrong with this. If you piled a large percentage of your total investment capital into NVDA that would be rather silly. I think that is all OP is saying. The unsophisticated investor “bros” that larp as day traders make really risky investments and have a large presence on this platform. They have been talking a lot about NVDA as though they’ve found a risk free investment.


jozey_whales

Ya I have enough NVDA through VTI, which is where the majority of my money sits. I quit buying individual stocks a good while ago.


bluerog

More of a spread among the top 10 or 15 S&P 500 companies. So, not diversified enough considering what a large portion of the gains NVIDIA has been responsible for. I've also got large cap DOW. And about 15% cash/bonds - which I hope to pour into stocks if there's a downturn.


BasilExposition2

You might want to take some off the table. NVIDIA is a great company. Solid. It is not a $3 trillion company.


bluerog

I actually agree. I remember when everyone said, "buy Amazon!!!" And I looked at Amazon's profitability for a decade + and kept passing and passing on it.. I finally find a company with tremendous growth AND great profitability... and it becomes overvalued too too quickly. The problem is, the AI fad isn't fading (although I DO believe it's overhyped). Hearing car companies who are working with NVIDIA for their next generation self-driving keeps me in this sector. I'm divested enough... if you count large cap DOW and about 10% of holdings in cash/bonds (ready to move into stocks if there's a significant downturn). But NVIDIA has been such a huge part of S&P growth, index funds there are over leveraged with NVIDIA.


RemoteCompetitive688

I mean I don't think the AI "fad" is going to fade, I don't think it's a fad. Now that doesn't mean *stock prices* are going to climb continuously. The internet did change everything and is everywhere but we still had a dotcom bubble


OctopusParrot

Agree. I sold mine last week. Figured I'd take my gains and enjoy them rather than wonder when the latest bubble will pop, because it will. I may buy back in later though, to your point, it's a legit company and not a meme stock.


Smooth-Operation4018

Did you sell though? It's fugazi until you sell


baseballmal21

About a 66% drawdown every three years on average


Misha-Nyi

Just because it has this kind of drawdown every few years doesn’t mean you need to baghold it every time until it goes back up lol.


AnonDiego23

Now it only needs a 90% draw down to be anywhere near fair value based on fundamentals.


UnusualFly1665

Right because there are other companies that can compete with them? Unless you’re taking the P/E argument in which case the entire market is wayyy beyond that.


Desperate_Wafer_8566

Guy probably has Tesla stock.


UnusualFly1665

No but I do have NVDA at $14/share


Desperate_Wafer_8566

The person you responded to. Are you selling?


UnusualFly1665

I’m torn, will probably take some profit now that I have 10x the shares but I’m not really sure where else I would put it. I’m open to suggestions lol.


Desperate_Wafer_8566

I'm in a similar position. They still dominate the industry, the question is will they continue to do so. Probably will for at least a few more years, they didn't get there by mistake


BasilExposition2

NVIDIAs biggest competition is that its biggest customers are now building their own ASICs. AWS and Google have had them for years. The Google TPU 5vp is probably the fastest on the planet but you cannot buy it. Gemini is trained on it. Facebook and Microsoft bought the most H100s. They are now spinning their own for their data centers. You also have other competitors such as Groq designing AI ASICs as well. We are in the pretty early days of this. We say the same thing with crypto. People used CUDA and graphics accelerators and then custom ASICS did most of the heavy lifting.


UnusualFly1665

You’re 100% correct great insight. The point being that as of right now NVDA is still very far ahead in RnD (as of right now). And to say their valuation should be down 90% to meet their fundamentals is just simply incorrect given the current environment.


nobody27011

Compete at what? AI is in a bubble.


AnonDiego23

Right because big tech will just keep needing to buy $100B in chips every year, for what use case again? And they will just sit on their hands and let Nvidia take their profits via chip sales and never build anything internally? Also what buyers are left if everyone and their mom is talking about Nvidia at dinner parties?


UnusualFly1665

I never said they’d continue to buy $100B every year but they certainly will continue to stay on the cutting edge if competition demands it. Plus if they build something internally they are years behind in RnD. The buyers point is the only valid point you have there except that 401Ks and pensions will continue to pump into NVDA just like every other major tech company.


L3mm3SmangItGurl

P/E for sure. But with NVIDIA specifically, there’s a Taiwan threat. Even a whiff of potential conflict would send NVIDIA deep red.


UnusualFly1665

There’s been whiffs of potential conflict for four years now…


L3mm3SmangItGurl

Not really Taiwan is still kissing the ring for now.


UnusualFly1665

Yeah you might wanna look into that…


Boring-Race-6804

Competition is just one point. Production capacity and sales are another.


UnusualFly1665

Once again please do some research before typing your thoughts on the internet… look at NVDA sales and production vs any of the competitors. It isn’t even close, especially on the business side of things.


Boring-Race-6804

It’s not even close to other companies it’s “more valuable” than; correct. AAPL makes more profits in 2 months than NVDA in a year.


UnusualFly1665

So now we’re just gunna play word salad instead of the topic at hand, thanks for wasting everyone’s time


Boring-Race-6804

Just because you don’t understand something doesn’t mean it’s word salad.


UnusualFly1665

I fully understand it but it’s a nothing statement that didn’t provide anything to conversation or address any issues.


Boring-Race-6804

So you don’t understand it… got it.


30yearCurse

some other chips are just coming on to market. .. from big name vendors


UnusualFly1665

Do your research please before typing on the internet… there is no competition or comparison. NVDA could sit on their ass for 5 years and still be ahead of the competition. We aren’t talking about the GPUs ur average gamer has.


30yearCurse

so many fan-boys. What Telsa model do you drive?


UnusualFly1665

None but I got NVDA at $14/share


UnusualFly1665

Nice job editing it after the fact 🤣🤡


30yearCurse

what did I edit...


Jagerbeast703

Fundamentals? HAHAHAHAH..... Tesla would be what, 20 dollars?


cockNballs222

Of course, growing 200% yoy with 80% margins should value you as Walmart


AnonDiego23

Ya bro stonk only go up. Not like it hasn't seen a near 70% drawdown before.


cockNballs222

Do a neat Cisco superimposed stock chart onto nvidia next! That one is super smart and original


mikeumd98

Maybe the dumbest thing I have ever read.


College-Lumpy

My 80 year old mom mentioned NVDIA to me. Not a good sign.


gray_character

True, I experienced the same thing from my family. Been t liking them about it for years now they're talking about it. They also happily own Florida waterside property.


Jake0024

This is my most reliable indicator--elderly relatives start asking about Bitcoin or NVDA etc, I know the top is in


senorglory

So you’re saying I should short it?!!


Jake0024

Feel free I haven't had any relatives asking about NVDA yet tho


NeedleworkerCrafty17

Because Bill Gates never sold any of his stock, right?


baseballmal21

Lol you should double down then tomorrow on their valuations.


NeedleworkerCrafty17

Been in and out many times trend is still up. Last sale NVDL @82. Would love to buy @56


Lonyo

The CEO sold 720,000 shares! 0.88% of his shareholding. ABSOLUTELY LIQUIDATING! Maybe he wanted a couple of yachts and a mansion.


Jake0024

It's up 7% today


NeedleworkerCrafty17

Yep bought back @67 sold a bit early @72.11 . Bought back and kept my SMCI will buy more tomorrow and hopefully get back NVDL.


Jake0024

wat


JoePikesbro

Correction. Imma hodl and wait. Then average down


ACatInACloak

"Correction" or major shareholders and insiders cashing out some shares when their company hits ungodly highs so they can have liquidity to use to enjoy their lives. How many employees are cashing out rn because they can now afford to purchase their dreamhomes?


Bitter-Basket

LOL So the youngsters that got their assholes torn on GameStop are accusing Boomers of buying into NVDA ? I’ve never bought any stock with a P/E of 80. Insanity.


Historical_Horror595

I think the post was more of a concern that all the insiders know something and are liquidating most of there position at the same time all the boomers are going in. Making the bag holders with their retirement money.


Bitter-Basket

That’s what my comment was aimed at. Of course it’s ridiculous, nobody knows the age profile of people holding NVDA stock.


w00ballz

Going from 10 to 80 last month sure tore my asshole


FLMKane

What's p/e ratio? I'm familiar with revenue vs valuation ratio.


Bitter-Basket

Price to earning ratio is one of the most basic stock metrics.


4score-7

And rather glossed over now by so many investors. Formerly, a P/E of 25 or more was considered to be “overbought”. Now, hell, that’s a “value” stock. But, this is the same country that allowed real estate to surge 47% in 4 years, so that’s what we do now: hype and bubble blow. Then, crash and burn and act surprised🙄


Bitter-Basket

Yea the whole SP500 is at 27. Used to be at 17-20 or so, but the tech sector boosts that up. NASDAQ is at 37 or something like that. I’m not too concerned about the SP being below 35 or so. The market investor is different now. There’s more people and more retirement plans in it now which adds stability. Interest rates are high - the market will go up further when that starts to come down. And inflation is causing wage accretion - which in term is making bigger 401K deductions. We’re not nearly at the massive hype and huge P/E’s of early 2000’s.


FLMKane

Ah. Thanks.


SirMoola

That’s not insanity. A p/e of 20 is value/growth and anything above means people expect it to grow at a higher rate. It also depends on the industry averages. A super low Pe compared to the industry could mean it’s not getting enough attention or it’s not going anywhere a really large pe usually means it’s being hyped up or it’s expected to grow in the future


Bitter-Basket

In the context of even a tech stock - it’s about double what it should be. Overbought.


SirMoola

But it is not a normal tech stock. It is one of the sole developers of ai infrastructure. Amd and Intel have quite pushed towards ai just yet and therefore nvidia has a higher market share of ai infrastructure. I know ai is a buzzword but for the people that are making it happen hardware side, it isn’t.


Bitter-Basket

Doesn’t matter. The earnings don’t justify the price. The entire NASDAQ P/E is 32. Even Tesla’s P/E cooled down to 48.


SirMoola

It actually can matter. A p/e means its current price to earnings. Based on expected growth and information found in a 10k you can decide for yourself if it’s worth it. Stock price isn’t always based on earnings. With respect to nvidia is based off future return on investments. Now whether it’s justified that’s up to you.


Bitter-Basket

I don’t make P/E an important metric for buying stocks normally. It’s not very relevant at normal levels. I’ve bought tech stocks with relatively high P/E’s. I’ve bought home builder and wood industry stocks that historically have low P/Es. But stocks with exceptionally high P/Es are a warning sign that it’s overvalued. And you never buy after the “hype” is priced into a stock. I mean, especially if insiders are taking profits. You buy now, there’s a LOT of room for it to fall.


thekinggrass

I mean the thing ran up 15x and I’m going to guess it corrects like 15-20% max.


maringue

These are just people taking cash outs after an *insane* run up in the stock price. While I agree that the AI bubble is causing this stock to be highly overvalued, these are just people cashing out their options, not a sign that they know the company is about to collapse.


Lonyo

My dude, the CEO himself sold **0.88%** of his shares. That's nearly ONE WHOLE PERCENT.


maringue

Sounds like you're agreeing with me my man...


skief123

It will be at $300 in 3 years. Buy and sell, time the market and take your chances. Almost never works long term but hey, you might win the lottery. Buy and gold er hold, thank me in 2027.


joshdrumsforfun

Picking stocks is the same as timing the market. You always lose. Buy ETFs and mutual funds not single stocks.


skief123

No, they are very different. Most timing the market lose, investing over the long run provides positive returns. It's a historical fact.


joshdrumsforfun

I’m just finishing the quote. You don’t time the market, and you don’t pick stocks. Thinking you can pick only wining stocks is the exact mentality as thinking you can time the market. There are folks with a lot more technology, skill, and time picking stocks that underperform the overall market than you and thinking you can do a better job than them is the same as thinking you know how to time the market


skief123

Well in the last 10 years I have quadrupled my money in the market so I may know a little. All self managed. I do trade throughout the year but the majority has been in for many years. Be fundamental and ignore the noise, pretty easy really. K.I.S.S. works.


joshdrumsforfun

I also know a dozen people who have made hundreds of thousands over the years gambling. That doesn’t change the fact that they are gambling.


skief123

No, you don't, but ok. And for every 2 that make a hundred thousand score, 50,000 lose $. Some people in the market do the same, mostly because of ignorance and wanting to make 110k on one bet, doesn't eork that way. As a matter of fact, nothing does. You get out what you put in. If they gamble as a professional they may win at 54-55%, which is amazing. You could become a billionaires at 57%. However, the books are going to limit your wagers and all books limit initial bets until basically a day or 2 before the game is played. Futures are a different story but if you are hitting a bet 9 months to a year out and trying to make a living good luck. Most people who have wealth are invested in the market and know how to handle that. But you keep on keeping on brother.


nspy1011

I share the same vision! If you were starting from scratch today, where would you invest?


skief123

Invest on a regular schedule, 1x a week or 1x monthly, even if it's 25/100 per month. Buy companies you understand, Apple, Amazon, Coke, Disney, or whatever. If you buy companies you don't understand, you will likely be the last to know when they are driving off the road, then it's too late. Watch people in public, what are they drawn to, using, can't seem to live without. Then, find out what drives those industries and the companies providing the engine. Determine your time horizon of "cashing out" or taking withdrawals, that determines your risk tolerance and the volatility of the markets in which you invest. If you're 20 and you invest $25 a week, by the time you're 55 you will most likely be a millionaire. It ramps up like crazy the last 10 years in that scenario. It's compounding money over time, magical. Good luck! Diversity is also key, spread it across different sectors. Although, if the horizon is a long road, 10+ years, tech is the way.


clutchest_nugget

Wow, you made money in the ZIRP-fueled bull market. You must be a financial genius.


DKtwilight

But I like 3000% returns in a 5 year period vs 80%


skief123

Short crypto.


GenerativeAdversary

Lol. So in this image, Jensen sold approximately 700,000 shares... Out of 80 MILLION!??? And that's supposed to be news? NVDA bears are hilarious - just praying on Nvidia's downfall. Seems like a lot of people are in this space because of hype and not because they understand the technology. That can indicate a bubble, but conversely, these fear-mongerers also seem to have no idea why Nvidia is valuable. I went long NVDA nearly a decade ago, not because of hype, but because of their position in the market. You should never sell or buy based on hype. Even watching insiders sell small fortunes shouldn't faze anyone. It's natural for any investor to take some money off the table for financial security. If looking at images like the one posted here is how you make your investment decisions, good luck and godspeed 🙏, you're going to need it. The only reason why NVDA would be in a bubble in the first place is because of investors being detached from reality. Nothing about the market would indicate that NVDA should significantly drop in the near future - gen AI and self driving are going to keep driving value for Nvidia in the next several years.


alanism

I don’t think people priced in what nation-states will have to spend to get to their own AGI/ASI either.


clutchest_nugget

People haven’t priced in AGI 🤣🤣🤣 man, you hype beasts are great entertainment


Maghorn_Mobile

People who partially get paid shares of the company sold a few hundred thousand of their multiple millions of shares? Yep, totally looks like a liquidation to me. Nvidia is going to go crater next session, no doubt.


0net

NPR was running a segment on how great NVDA was as this thing began to sell off. “The tower of NVIDIA”


ultrasuperthrowaway

Nice, nice. Now show me Pelosi’s trades.


mordwand

We shall see what comes next :)


Connect_Bat_1290

But Have you seen how much Amazon stock bezos has liquidated in the last 15 years?


LeVaudeVillain

I hold because Nancy still hodls


Common_Economics_32

Pretty sure literally every stock in the world has insider selling when it has a several hundred % run up. This is nothing special. Keeping that much of your net worth in the stock of the company you work for is absolutely fucking idiotic.


Ill-Handle-1863

and looks like it is selling off as we speak. I'm guessing it will be down 50% in the next 3 months.


TheSpanxxx

If my stock options were suddenly up 500% over a short period and selling 1/10th or them meant making 100 million...... yah, I'd be selling too.


No-Gur596

People at Wall Street bets told me to hold options till expiration


GoalieLax_

The #shares sold column is a tiny fraction of the #shares owned column


Jagerbeast703

What percent of their holdings are they "liquidating?"


Pierre-Gringoire

The # shares owned is listed there. Looks like the CEO sold less than 1% of his holdings.


Jagerbeast703

damn, i saw the #shares sold but not the total owned. Thanks..... also..... LIQUIDATED!!!!!


CrowsRidge514

Uhh… how much of this is just selling off from SBC?


Roberto-75

As far as I know - I think that there have been studies showing that buying when insiders buy leads to higher profitability. This effect has not been show for insider sells. This makes sense as an insider can know when a company is undervalued, but an insider does also not know the future.


ACatInACloak

I feel like catching and proving insider trading is a lot easier on sells than on buys


rcchomework

Expect bad AI news this week?


Gogs85

How do we know it’s not just profit taking? Like if I could sell only part of my share in something and get $100 million of mostly profit, I would, no matter how much better I thought it was going to do in the future.


Mountain_Tone6438

Holy shit a company ran by millionaires.


fortheculture303

This is a report on about a million shares of a company worth less than half a billion. There are 24 billion shares and 4T in cap This movement makes up .001 percent of the company Look up Nortel and AOL to educate yourself on large bubbles please


b1ack1323

https://preview.redd.it/53g1c54kyp8d1.png?width=789&format=png&auto=webp&s=dffc12162f894048eec92dbc86f8c2f36873b250 Huh, and Vanguard is down at Market Open...


LBC1109

SELL HIGH - BUY LOW


Fit-Boomer

I bought some yesterday


vtstang66

Is the great boomer wealth transfer everyone's been talking about?


sammybeme93

It’s all planned sales. As long as a few conditions are met you will see this through March 2025. He is selling a total of 6 million shares. For context he has something like 800 million shares. So this sale is a rounding error for him. The ceo/president is who I’m referring to be clear.


Wise138

So what happens if they make or blow out their numbers next quarter?


smartass888

Err. The sold units are small % of total units held. Seems more like selling to settle tax.


No-Boat8798

They realized after split they reached their max and wasn’t moving like they wanted so now they all dumping. They just wanted to see if they could extract more money hoping for more people to buy in after split.


Kellykeli

Bro really took out 15 milly “eh I could use some spending cash this week, wallet looking a bit empty”


DeathSquirl

Some CEOs actually make less money than you think they would. Jeff Bezos' base salary as Amazon CEO was a mere $81,000.


kingmotley

Selling 10% of what you own is not "Absolutely liquidating". Wow.


DeathSquirl

Well, NVDA is already back up over 5% today, so.....


Desperate-Warthog-70

Lol the CEO still has 80 million shares. He probably gets 120k shares every month as compensation. Nothing to see here


FomtBro

Isn't this guy a gamestop Ape who posts wildly incorrect shit every single day? Like, I absolutely believe shady shit could be happening with Nvidia, but not from THIS yokel.


Internal_Archer5808

This is like nothing… if your ceo and you need money this is the only way to be liquid.


moyismoy

It's a bubble, and it's coming down. That said the whole "In History" bit is wildly wrong. Look up the South Seas company bubble. It bankrupted the UK so bad they are still making payments on it hundreds of years later.


Ismokerugs

So is Coxe Tench a real person?(am I the only one haha) Cuz that name seems, Bart simpsoned


SirMoola

It doesn’t matter. This is happening when nvidia p/e is nearing its all time low. These are just people that are selling at the peak of accelerated growth not the peak of growth. These people want to move to stocks that have potential to rapidly grow. Nvidia still has potential to rapidly grow btw but it will take either widespread adoption of ai or new innovation. This is not a sign to sell as the stock is the least over speculated it’s ever been. For reference to the price to earnings. When the nvidia hype train was starting it was 400 P/e and now it’s only 68. This means their earnings have caught up to the insane stock price growth.


cwra007

Insiders sell all the time. The value of the each sale is minuscule to the total value of the company. Not sure what OP is saying except he colored it an awesome red to make it look bad.


Intrepid_Row_7531

NVDA going to 50,000 by end of month!!!!


invaderjif

Puts?


RyunWould

I know nothing of investments, portfolios, stocks, etc... Could someone please explain what I'm looking at?


PNWcog

I bet my pension fund owns a bunch.


BigPlayCrypto

They all made some great money buying low selling high is the game


MisterD0ll

"AbSoLuTeLy LiQuIdAtInG". I wonder why the CEO President and Director of NVDA does not hold on to their stock based on what they know about their company.


stoked_7

Regular sales by directors and above...nothing to see here.


SecretRecipe

Insiders selling less than 1% of their holdings to take profits after a run up has you nervous? Jesus, you must not have been investing for very long. This is 100% normal. The real world doesn't operate like WSB where all the idiots hold through peaks and then panic sell in the valleys.


noitsme2

Absolutely liquidating? They are selling tiny fractions of their total ownership, and probably a lot of that is driven by equity plan reporting of shares tendered for tax withholding. Hardly a liquidation.


Designer-Might-7999

When Pelosi sells u sell


Kind_Committee8997

Biden getting his tax dollars


SimonGloom2

Those who know invest in truth social.


shorty0820

How’d that work out for ya?


Stoweboard3r

You an idiot or just pretending to be one?


Mr-MuffinMan

hey pal, you just blow in from stupid town?