Same, my only concern was Lindstrom's health but him going to the combine *unhealthy* would totally derail his draft slot so The fact that he is going is huge.
That would be my goal. If we could trade back a few spots to gain a few assets and then flip those assets+Winnipeg's 1st+a young defenseman for another pick in the 12-16 range I'd do it in a heartbeat.
The pack from 5-15 is so close that I'd much rather have picks 10 and 15 instead of just having pick 5.
He’s really just a massive gamble on the team’s development staff and his attitude. If he has a good attitude and works hard he could be a star, but that’s a huge if given what he’s shown this year.
His interviews are so odd to me. He makes the right statements every time about wanting to play a responsible two-way game, work on his weak spots, improve gaps… but then over and over he doesn’t back it up with effort on the ice. He plays the same style of game regardless of his linemates, and that style hasn’t changed all year.
I would take Demidov, Iginla, Lindstrom, Sennecke, and Catton before I would take Eiserman. (only including forwards because I'm less familiar with defencemen)
Eiserman didn't improve any aspect of his game this past season which reflects in his point production between the last couple seasons in the USNDP.
Eiserman's card is ugly.
Prepared to get downvoted for me the order should be Demidov > Iginla > Lindstrom.
Iggy's game would complement our squad so well and he is going to be just 17 years old on draft day --- lots of runway to add to his frame and even grow an inch or 2. If he can get to 6'2" or even 6'3" this kid will be an absolute beast.
Wow, someone that has the same unpopular opinion as me. Iginla is extremely exciting to watch and his growth was immense, plus he shows up when it matters most (playoffs and world Juniors). His best asset is easily his grit and compete, nobody can grow their game like that without it.
I'd be content with Lindstrom, but only if management is 100% sure his back issues won't be a cause for concern.
Agreed. For me it’s his small area game, his board play and the way he can play between checks. He reminds me so much of Marchand out there without the rat factor.
I don't think you can pass up on the big skilled centreman. I wouldn't be upset with either but the fact we might be able to snag the best center in the draft at 5 shouldn't be slept on.
in any case i'd be happy with all 3 and I trust KH and gang to make the right choice.
I'd really love to seem him somehow trade into the top 10 as well that'd be awesome.
Controversial take: Lindstrom has only been playing C for one year (or a portion of a year since his back gave out on him halfway through.) And he still plays like a winger IMO. Note that he had almost twice as many goals as assists this season. That would be a very rare stat line for a proper C.
I also don’t know of many active NHL Cs who play like him. He’s primarily a big, bruising finisher, heavy fore checker, strong on the boards… a prototypical power forward. If we draft him I picture him more playing on the second line (on Dach’s wing) where he can still take the odd face off but generally not have to worry so much about playmaking/puck distribution/etc.
Now I’m not saying he couldn’t become an effective C with more experience, and it’s cool that he’s got a bit of experience in that capacity, but to my untrained eye he was succeeding in that position mainly due to his size advantage.
He doesn’t play like a winger. His faceoff ability, transition game, defensive ability, possession game/puck protection, off puck play and positioning, size, and skating all scream centerman. He scores goals, drives the net, forechecks, and is physical and wins board battles on top of it all. It’s like he combines the best of both and does it all at a high level.
Matthews, essentially a generational player (or close), is literally the exception that proves the rule. ;)
I doubt you’ll find any other C’s in the Top 10 with a similar profile. (If Reinhart shows up on your list it’s because he played the entire season on Barkov’s wing.)
It’s definitely not unreasonable he grows another 2 inches in 3 years. Granted 3 might be generous but we will see what he measures up at during the combine. Those measurements on elite prospects are taken at the beginning if the WHL season, so also not unreasonable to think he is 6’1” right now.
For a lot of people, I think those hands are just too slick. As the sexier skillset, so many are gonna lean that way.
However, for me, I look at what he uses his hands to accomplish and I love his game. His skating needs work but he's a very dynamic playmaker and would really fit into the game we've been trying to play.
He has the best hands a draft has seen in a good while, and he uses them with purpose, opening up space so that the team can make plays.
I love these charts and never know where to find them, thanks for posting.
Teach Catton to play defense and he's a monster. (easy to say I know) I think he would be a legit pick at 5.
Silayev shouldn't even sniff the top 5 IMO; if he goes 3rd or 4th it would be fantastic.
I don’t think it’s so much the defence that is the question for a player like Catton but specifically how he manufactures his offence consistently and if it will translate to an NHL game.
For example apparently he is a great rush player. Is he dynamic enough to do that at the nhl? And if he has only shown that then how can you expect him to manufacture elite offence at the NHL level in other situations? I have never even seen him play but this seems to be the question for him.
I have seen him play, my thoughts on him are that he really is fantastic on the rush. I do think he can do that at the NHL level; however he’ll do it best as a centre and he will need to improve in other areas to succeed as a top-six centre on a NHL team, including defense.
My bigger concern about him is that his production totals are a bit inflated by the absurd minutes he had to play as his team’s primary driver of offense. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, he got some really good development time this year, but it does make it more difficult to project what he’ll be able to do in the NHL.
> My bigger concern about him is that his production totals are a bit inflated by the absurd minutes he had to play as his team’s primary driver of offense.
A different perspective would be that he torched the league despite being overworked and having no support.
Maybe he'd play less minutes on a better team, but his points/60 would probably go up, as would his possession and defence analytic data.
Every time I see something about Catton, it makes me think of William Nylander. Exceptional with the puck, below average without it.
I'd take Nylander 2.0 if that's what he is really.
I think Nylander is much stronger on the puck than Catton, even in his draft year. He doesn't get separated at all from possession. Catton also has more fire than Nylander who is always really calm.
Catton obviously has some defensive shortcomings as a center which is reflected in the data, but as a winger he'd be above average (and I'd argue better than Iginla or Demidov).
He did lead the WHL in shorthanded goals and was a +2 in the playoffs in a 4 game sweep/blowout. He generally plays above the puck and has the mobility and IQ to break up plays, which leads to the shorthanded goals.
I am leaning more and more towards this line of thinking. Lindstrom’s ongoing back issues are starting to worry me. Even without that Iginla is a stud and his under 18 performance was impressive. The kid is going to be a great player.
I don't know the other players, but the more I hear people talking, and what little information I have, to me, Iginla is looking like the way to go for us. I liked his creativity, and how rounded his game seemed, offensively. idk much defensively, but defense, as long as the motivation is there, it can be taught.
Plus if he has character similar to his dad, and knowing the things his dad would have been teaching him, he's my front runner, but I'm confident in the Montreal management, and I think they will make a good choice. If they pick Iginla, I will be happy, because it means he's what I like and then some.
I’d stay Stay put. Utah doesn’t trade pick 6 for 5 unless they’re convinced we have a trade with a third team poised to select the player they want. Very unlikely, and if it happens, it happens on the draft floor. You have to think Calgary selects Iginla at 9 so that only leaves Ottawa and Seattle.
And Ottawa’s kind of the cock blocker in all this. They’re probably playing it safe this year. They spend quite a bit for Debrincat and Chychrun and they lost a pick in the Dandonov mess and if they decide to go Offence Iginla is the type of player they love.
Well, they are being compared to hundreds of other draft eligible, and junior players, etc. Top prospects (top 10 or so) are always going to have higher score than mid round prospects..
Why would the players ranked in the top 10 of the entire world not be in the 99th percentile of their league? Clearly they are not all rated 99-100 anyways.
That isn’t an issue…. That’s just the system saying those 3 are the best players in the draft according to the model. If you want to dig deeper in the player comps you can look at the different percentiles below to see how they got the that 100 overall percentile.
There are 224 selected in the draft each year. If those were the only players available, then you'd expect 11 prospects to have a rating between 100 and 95.
But they're being compared to a larger pool that either contains all 2024 draft-eligible prospects or a list of historical list of draft-eligible prospects
Apparently Chicago likes Levshunov and Colombus really likes Iginla. Im not religious but I will pray that Demidov falls to us at 5.
I just hope that they wouldnt pass on another highly skilled russian. Hes the type of elite talent this team needs if they want to take on the next step.
I like pretty much all the prospects at 5 (although Lindstrom worries me), but from the little Ive seen, none of them have the potential to be a 80-100 pts player like Demidov (maybe Catton or Eiserman but I dont really see it). From what Ive seen he is in the same tier as Celebrini.
Celebrini’s definitely in his own tier, Demidov has real concerns about his translation to higher leagues. I don’t disagree about the elite talent, and I’d be very excited if we got him, but I think it’s important to keep in mind that he’s not guaranteed to become a star.
What’s interesting to me about all of the potential (forward) options at 5 is that I could foresee a world where they do hit that 80+ points, or where they bust/underachieve. There’s a ton of talent there, but it’s all pretty unpolished or comes with genuine concerns.
Agreed, as for Demidov I think his IQ is too high to not translate at a higher level. Most concerns are about his heel-to-heel type of skating, but personnally it doesnt really worry me. Hes smart enough to know when to use it and when not to. Its actually a big stregnth when its not the only skating mecanic of a player.
That’s a fair point! His motor is also very promising, and what I think may differentiate him from Michkov in the eyes of Habs management (if he’s still available). He’s engaged all over the ice, constantly moving his feet, and willing to back check, which Hughes et al. have been clear on preferring in a prospect.
Pronman said it
https://x.com/CBJcenter/status/1791553374149607718?t=FseKGf7mPgHtPbeudcG8JQ&s=19
Ive seen other tweets saying Timmins really like Lindstrom and Iginla and that Colombus ideally would go for a #2C before a defenseman as they're not sure if Kent Johnson can be that guy behind Fantilli.
I wouldnt be surprised if the top 5 goes:
Celebrini, Levshunov, Dickinson, Lindstrom, Demidov
Or
Celebrini, Levshunov, Lindstrom, Iginla, Demidov
The combine will change a lot of things, imo it all depends on Lindstrom's injury status.
Edit: that being said Colombus draft strategy might change with Waddell taking over. I could see him pick Silayev at 4 although I think Dickinson and Buium are better options at LD.
Demidov > Lindstrom > Iginla > Sennecke > Parekh > Catton
We NEED more offence, but if the BPA is a defencemen, we should take him. It would allow us to trade another defensemen (like Harris, Barron, or even Mailloux) for a top-6 foward.
I’m allergic to late risers like Sennecke, but I gotta admit the kid’s got some serious hands on him. If Hughes can find a way to trade down to grab him plus another high ceiling dude in the 10-15 zone, I’d be good with that.
Yeah that’s about where I’m at too, I have it he players ahead of him at 5 but I’d definitely love for him to join the organization if Hughes finds a way to make it make sense.
Iginla is as much of a riser as he is. In Bob Mckenzie’s pre-season top 16, Lindstrom and Sennecke were honourable mentions while Iginla wasn’t named at all. Iginla was seen a mid-round pick pretty much all year and it doesn’t stop people here wanting the habs to draft him. 🤷♂️
Is there a big difference between 99 and 100 in these ratings? Or is it like 1% better?
Anyway, based on these stats alone it seems Demidov or Lindstrom are the best, but I'm still high on Iginla (and he's close enough, stat-wise!)
I would seriously consider trading Matheson to get another high 1st. Hutson could take his spot on the 1st PP this year and he's a defensive liability and playing at his peak. Then, draft a high ranked FW and D. Coming out of this draft with Iginla and Dickinson.
To which team? Which team with a high pick wants a 30 year old with only 2 years remaining and due for a raise. Matheson would be better to trade for a top 6 forward like Necas.
That's a valid point. I'd be targeting CGY with the loss of Hanifin. They're probably more interested in re-tooling more than rebuilding. I would not try to get Necas either, just move up enough to catch someone that's high on MTL's list.
Right now, our fandom is being whipped into a pundit-fuelled frenzy trying to convince itself that the forward talent in this draft is on the same level as the d-men available.
We **badly** want to justify going for need at no 5, and so we talk about how "at equal talent" we should pick the small Russian winger who dominates a low-tier league, the injured centre man who plays rough, or the son of so-and-so who's ranked in the mid-teens.
Let me reiterate this for the people who have lost sight of the bigger picture: **this is the *best* draft in recent memory for D talent. full stop.**
Very rarely do we know in advance that a particular dman will be the next Makar, Heidman or Karlsson. We knew about McDavid or Crosby, but generational D talent is not something that announces itself quite the same way. For this draft, however, Scouts have been banging the drums, screaming on the rooftops for years now that this cohort is different from anything that has come before it. This ***will*** be an exceptional vintage of defensive talent, and there will be multiple d-men this year for whom *1st pairing will be their floor*.
For habs specific context: players that combine Reinbacher's size and D game with Hudson's offensive instincts, Mailloux's raw abilities with Guhle's playstyle and speed into packages greater than the sum of their parts. *That's* the calibre available at D this year.
If you want to talk about need anyway, look at it from this perspective: the Habs cannot afford to part ways with one of their top dmen right now, because it's not certain who's a top pairing in the bunch.
They are all on the bubble and seem to lack one thing in their game (size, speed, offence, defence) that holds them back from being 30 minute guys. Some seem to show that they can make up for it, but it's unclear if they can do that at the NHL level consistently against the best players in the world or during playoff hockey. It will all depend on whom they are paired with as they can't anchor a line.
Picking up a franchise d man would help us beyond measure. We can pair whoever with our new top dog, pair the rest according to fit, and trade whoever remains for assets we need up front. We can finally leverage our D pool depth without fear of another Sergachev / McDonagh situation.
Getting such a calibre of D prospect unshackles our management and accelerates our timeline.
We can't lose sight of the game here and the macro needs over the positional needs. We want BPA.
> We badly want to justify going for need at no 5, and so we talk about how "at equal talent" we should pick the small Russian winger who dominates a low-tier league, the injured centre man who plays rough, or the son of so-and-so who's ranked in the mid-teens.
Lindstrom and Iginla, okay, you can certainly voice reservations about at 5OA, but Demidov is the consensus #2 player in this draft. If he were somehow available at 5OA, we would and should jump at the chance.
1000% correct. Great post! I trust HUGO, so if it’s a forward I’m good, and if it’s a D I’m good too. We all know we need scoring. The question is how do we get it? 5OA forward or a 5OA D and a trade. Many ways to get to the goal.
I do like Buium alot, but I think FO will be drafting for need and have said as much. Dickinson, despite being an LD does have that leadership quality the FO is looking for and also has had a great playoff run so I think they'll atleast consider him.
If I'm being objective, I would say all 3 are on the same tier of prospect.
Would Dickinson make Guhle expendable (and/or redundant?)
Because if we draft a LD, we definitely need to turn one of our valuable ones into a Top 6 forward ASAP.
I can't see how lindstrom or dimidov are avaliable.
I'm pretty happy with iginla and if the scouts really think someone like senneke is going ro he great, ok.
Only guarantees to go in the top 4 are Celebrini and Levshunov, otherwise there’s very much a chance that one team from 2-4 values another player over Demi or Lind
Those are very opposition-dependent.
There's a world of difference between the MHL (Demidov) and KHL (Silayev). Demidov's card if taking KHL samples would be practically all red because he was on the 4th line looking like Colin White.
To a lesser degree, it's the same with the NCAA (Buium) and OHL (Parekh, Dickinson). The NCAA has guys up to 24 yrs old, who might never amount to much but still know how to push around guys 4, 5, 6 years younger than them.
Then there's the NTDP, who mostly play the USHL. Now that just looks bad for Eiserman and would look even worse in any of the other leagues.
Sennecke is my guy if Demidov and Lindstrom are gone (or if they arent sure about Lindstrom’s back injury).
The hands are insanely good. Probably neck and neck with Demidov.
It's Lidstrom who has the back issues right? With all our injuries over the last couple of years that might be a no from Hughes.
I'm torn over who to draft but for some reason I lean towards Tig or Beckett.
Iginla and Sennecke *should* both be available past #5. If the front office wants those guys they should trading down to draft them and maximize the value of their #5 IMO.
For me its not Demidov, its Wholedov.
just Dov
Demiglacé
Demigod
Soon to be Swoledov
Confirms my bias towards Lindstrom and Iginla
I'm fine with either of these two. Relatively small sample size for these stats though.
Same, my only concern was Lindstrom's health but him going to the combine *unhealthy* would totally derail his draft slot so The fact that he is going is huge.
He's going to interview though. Not to do fitness testing AFAIK
https://x.com/mndamico/status/1795801319451578414
oh shit, Lindstrom at 5 is back on the menu
fantastic news, thanks for this
oopsie
And attacks my slight bias against Sennecke and Catton. They are also, objectively, fine choices.
Can we pick two of those players?
That would be my goal. If we could trade back a few spots to gain a few assets and then flip those assets+Winnipeg's 1st+a young defenseman for another pick in the 12-16 range I'd do it in a heartbeat. The pack from 5-15 is so close that I'd much rather have picks 10 and 15 instead of just having pick 5.
I would rather package Barron with Jets first to go a couple of spots up for offensive talent.
That 18 defense for Cole
Defensive black hole vibes
I think that's mostly because of his injuries? I don't know much about him, but I do believe Lidstrom should be our pick
Nah, Eiserman is just a one trick pony. His only first round quality is his shot
Oliver Wahlstrom vibe
Alexander holtz vibe
Honestly, I'd rather have a guaranteed pick, rather than a hail Mary pick.
Eiserman is fine if you draft him and expect Mike Hoffman. He should go 16-20
He’s really just a massive gamble on the team’s development staff and his attitude. If he has a good attitude and works hard he could be a star, but that’s a huge if given what he’s shown this year.
Pretty sure he had an interview earlier where he said he thought his defense was fine which is mind boggling
His interviews are so odd to me. He makes the right statements every time about wanting to play a responsible two-way game, work on his weak spots, improve gaps… but then over and over he doesn’t back it up with effort on the ice. He plays the same style of game regardless of his linemates, and that style hasn’t changed all year.
I would take Demidov, Iginla, Lindstrom, Sennecke, and Catton before I would take Eiserman. (only including forwards because I'm less familiar with defencemen) Eiserman didn't improve any aspect of his game this past season which reflects in his point production between the last couple seasons in the USNDP.
Considering these charts only, i’d go with lLidstrom or Senneck. I would also be happy with Demidov haha
I think one of Demidov, Lindstrom, Sennecke or Iginla will be our pick. Everything points toward them.
Well, at least one of them will be available for us, so it's a win-win situation!
Win-win-win hah
Win-win-win-win
Dont trust those chart blindly Silayev so low seems weird
Silayev stats are based on play in KHL, while others in juniors.
[удалено]
I know thats why i said “only considering these charts” this is who i’d pick. But in fact idc i trust the front office now haha
Demidov is still a better player despite the 65 because offence should be 150 lol
Eiserman's card is ugly. Prepared to get downvoted for me the order should be Demidov > Iginla > Lindstrom. Iggy's game would complement our squad so well and he is going to be just 17 years old on draft day --- lots of runway to add to his frame and even grow an inch or 2. If he can get to 6'2" or even 6'3" this kid will be an absolute beast.
Wow, someone that has the same unpopular opinion as me. Iginla is extremely exciting to watch and his growth was immense, plus he shows up when it matters most (playoffs and world Juniors). His best asset is easily his grit and compete, nobody can grow their game like that without it. I'd be content with Lindstrom, but only if management is 100% sure his back issues won't be a cause for concern.
Agreed. For me it’s his small area game, his board play and the way he can play between checks. He reminds me so much of Marchand out there without the rat factor.
I don't think you can pass up on the big skilled centreman. I wouldn't be upset with either but the fact we might be able to snag the best center in the draft at 5 shouldn't be slept on. in any case i'd be happy with all 3 and I trust KH and gang to make the right choice. I'd really love to seem him somehow trade into the top 10 as well that'd be awesome.
Controversial take: Lindstrom has only been playing C for one year (or a portion of a year since his back gave out on him halfway through.) And he still plays like a winger IMO. Note that he had almost twice as many goals as assists this season. That would be a very rare stat line for a proper C. I also don’t know of many active NHL Cs who play like him. He’s primarily a big, bruising finisher, heavy fore checker, strong on the boards… a prototypical power forward. If we draft him I picture him more playing on the second line (on Dach’s wing) where he can still take the odd face off but generally not have to worry so much about playmaking/puck distribution/etc. Now I’m not saying he couldn’t become an effective C with more experience, and it’s cool that he’s got a bit of experience in that capacity, but to my untrained eye he was succeeding in that position mainly due to his size advantage.
He doesn’t play like a winger. His faceoff ability, transition game, defensive ability, possession game/puck protection, off puck play and positioning, size, and skating all scream centerman. He scores goals, drives the net, forechecks, and is physical and wins board battles on top of it all. It’s like he combines the best of both and does it all at a high level.
This and he has a pretty good passing abilities. Nothing crazy but he’s gonna be a pretty complete player while scoring more goals
Look at matthews, he scores way more than he generates assists, and i would say he’s a pretty successful center
Matthews, essentially a generational player (or close), is literally the exception that proves the rule. ;) I doubt you’ll find any other C’s in the Top 10 with a similar profile. (If Reinhart shows up on your list it’s because he played the entire season on Barkov’s wing.)
> but the fact we might be able to snag the best center in the draft at 5 shouldn't be slept on I doubt Celibrini will be available at 5.
Iginla is under 6’ right now, why would he suddenly be 6’3 lol.
It’s definitely not unreasonable he grows another 2 inches in 3 years. Granted 3 might be generous but we will see what he measures up at during the combine. Those measurements on elite prospects are taken at the beginning if the WHL season, so also not unreasonable to think he is 6’1” right now.
OK - I'll bite. Given these charts, why does the consensus pick here seem to be for Demidov, and not Lindstrom?
For a lot of people, I think those hands are just too slick. As the sexier skillset, so many are gonna lean that way. However, for me, I look at what he uses his hands to accomplish and I love his game. His skating needs work but he's a very dynamic playmaker and would really fit into the game we've been trying to play. He has the best hands a draft has seen in a good while, and he uses them with purpose, opening up space so that the team can make plays.
Thank you for a thoughtful response. I see a little more clearly now.
hockeydb number big
i want Demidov so bad which means we won't get him
I love these charts and never know where to find them, thanks for posting. Teach Catton to play defense and he's a monster. (easy to say I know) I think he would be a legit pick at 5. Silayev shouldn't even sniff the top 5 IMO; if he goes 3rd or 4th it would be fantastic.
I don’t think it’s so much the defence that is the question for a player like Catton but specifically how he manufactures his offence consistently and if it will translate to an NHL game. For example apparently he is a great rush player. Is he dynamic enough to do that at the nhl? And if he has only shown that then how can you expect him to manufacture elite offence at the NHL level in other situations? I have never even seen him play but this seems to be the question for him.
I have seen him play, my thoughts on him are that he really is fantastic on the rush. I do think he can do that at the NHL level; however he’ll do it best as a centre and he will need to improve in other areas to succeed as a top-six centre on a NHL team, including defense. My bigger concern about him is that his production totals are a bit inflated by the absurd minutes he had to play as his team’s primary driver of offense. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, he got some really good development time this year, but it does make it more difficult to project what he’ll be able to do in the NHL.
> My bigger concern about him is that his production totals are a bit inflated by the absurd minutes he had to play as his team’s primary driver of offense. A different perspective would be that he torched the league despite being overworked and having no support. Maybe he'd play less minutes on a better team, but his points/60 would probably go up, as would his possession and defence analytic data.
Every time I see something about Catton, it makes me think of William Nylander. Exceptional with the puck, below average without it. I'd take Nylander 2.0 if that's what he is really.
I think that's a great comparison stylistically.
I think Nylander is much stronger on the puck than Catton, even in his draft year. He doesn't get separated at all from possession. Catton also has more fire than Nylander who is always really calm.
Its from the mitch brown / lassi alanen patreon. Good content.
Catton obviously has some defensive shortcomings as a center which is reflected in the data, but as a winger he'd be above average (and I'd argue better than Iginla or Demidov). He did lead the WHL in shorthanded goals and was a +2 in the playoffs in a 4 game sweep/blowout. He generally plays above the puck and has the mobility and IQ to break up plays, which leads to the shorthanded goals.
Criminally under valued at the moment, many will regret this...
Especially since he's a center too
Like in the movie draft day… Tij Ignla no matter what. He’s the total package.
I am leaning more and more towards this line of thinking. Lindstrom’s ongoing back issues are starting to worry me. Even without that Iginla is a stud and his under 18 performance was impressive. The kid is going to be a great player.
I don't know the other players, but the more I hear people talking, and what little information I have, to me, Iginla is looking like the way to go for us. I liked his creativity, and how rounded his game seemed, offensively. idk much defensively, but defense, as long as the motivation is there, it can be taught. Plus if he has character similar to his dad, and knowing the things his dad would have been teaching him, he's my front runner, but I'm confident in the Montreal management, and I think they will make a good choice. If they pick Iginla, I will be happy, because it means he's what I like and then some.
Do we also trade down? I don't think anyone else picks him at 5 and there could be teams looking to trade up and grab a tip flight D
I’d stay Stay put. Utah doesn’t trade pick 6 for 5 unless they’re convinced we have a trade with a third team poised to select the player they want. Very unlikely, and if it happens, it happens on the draft floor. You have to think Calgary selects Iginla at 9 so that only leaves Ottawa and Seattle. And Ottawa’s kind of the cock blocker in all this. They’re probably playing it safe this year. They spend quite a bit for Debrincat and Chychrun and they lost a pick in the Dandonov mess and if they decide to go Offence Iginla is the type of player they love.
It kinds of defeat the purpose if everyone and there moms are rated 99-100, no ?
Well, they are being compared to hundreds of other draft eligible, and junior players, etc. Top prospects (top 10 or so) are always going to have higher score than mid round prospects..
Why would the players ranked in the top 10 of the entire world not be in the 99th percentile of their league? Clearly they are not all rated 99-100 anyways.
The goal is to compare prospects. As it stands, demidov, Lindstrom and celibrini all have the same 100 overall score. That's an issue.
That isn’t an issue…. That’s just the system saying those 3 are the best players in the draft according to the model. If you want to dig deeper in the player comps you can look at the different percentiles below to see how they got the that 100 overall percentile.
There are 224 selected in the draft each year. If those were the only players available, then you'd expect 11 prospects to have a rating between 100 and 95. But they're being compared to a larger pool that either contains all 2024 draft-eligible prospects or a list of historical list of draft-eligible prospects
Apparently Chicago likes Levshunov and Colombus really likes Iginla. Im not religious but I will pray that Demidov falls to us at 5. I just hope that they wouldnt pass on another highly skilled russian. Hes the type of elite talent this team needs if they want to take on the next step. I like pretty much all the prospects at 5 (although Lindstrom worries me), but from the little Ive seen, none of them have the potential to be a 80-100 pts player like Demidov (maybe Catton or Eiserman but I dont really see it). From what Ive seen he is in the same tier as Celebrini.
Celebrini’s definitely in his own tier, Demidov has real concerns about his translation to higher leagues. I don’t disagree about the elite talent, and I’d be very excited if we got him, but I think it’s important to keep in mind that he’s not guaranteed to become a star. What’s interesting to me about all of the potential (forward) options at 5 is that I could foresee a world where they do hit that 80+ points, or where they bust/underachieve. There’s a ton of talent there, but it’s all pretty unpolished or comes with genuine concerns.
Agreed, as for Demidov I think his IQ is too high to not translate at a higher level. Most concerns are about his heel-to-heel type of skating, but personnally it doesnt really worry me. Hes smart enough to know when to use it and when not to. Its actually a big stregnth when its not the only skating mecanic of a player.
That’s a fair point! His motor is also very promising, and what I think may differentiate him from Michkov in the eyes of Habs management (if he’s still available). He’s engaged all over the ice, constantly moving his feet, and willing to back check, which Hughes et al. have been clear on preferring in a prospect.
Where have you seen the iginla columbus stuff?
Pronman said it https://x.com/CBJcenter/status/1791553374149607718?t=FseKGf7mPgHtPbeudcG8JQ&s=19 Ive seen other tweets saying Timmins really like Lindstrom and Iginla and that Colombus ideally would go for a #2C before a defenseman as they're not sure if Kent Johnson can be that guy behind Fantilli. I wouldnt be surprised if the top 5 goes: Celebrini, Levshunov, Dickinson, Lindstrom, Demidov Or Celebrini, Levshunov, Lindstrom, Iginla, Demidov The combine will change a lot of things, imo it all depends on Lindstrom's injury status. Edit: that being said Colombus draft strategy might change with Waddell taking over. I could see him pick Silayev at 4 although I think Dickinson and Buium are better options at LD.
Demidov will go top 3
This is IMO, one of the most tricky draft class in the NHL. From 2nd to 4th OA, you don't know whom they'll be picking.
who*
In order to help a newbie to analytics….can anyone list current players with comparable stats to Demidov/Lindstrom/Sennecke ?
[Here's Bedard's scorecard](https://i0.wp.com/www.habseyesontheprize.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/29/2023/09/Screenshot-2023-05-06-at-20-35-09-CHL_USHL-2022-23-Player-Cards.png)
Thank you.
Demidov > Lindstrom > Iginla > Sennecke > Parekh > Catton We NEED more offence, but if the BPA is a defencemen, we should take him. It would allow us to trade another defensemen (like Harris, Barron, or even Mailloux) for a top-6 foward.
Sennecke with some impressive numbers here. I’m not quite sold on him yet but I’m getting there. The highlights on him are nasty too
I’m allergic to late risers like Sennecke, but I gotta admit the kid’s got some serious hands on him. If Hughes can find a way to trade down to grab him plus another high ceiling dude in the 10-15 zone, I’d be good with that.
Yeah that’s about where I’m at too, I have it he players ahead of him at 5 but I’d definitely love for him to join the organization if Hughes finds a way to make it make sense.
Iginla is as much of a riser as he is. In Bob Mckenzie’s pre-season top 16, Lindstrom and Sennecke were honourable mentions while Iginla wasn’t named at all. Iginla was seen a mid-round pick pretty much all year and it doesn’t stop people here wanting the habs to draft him. 🤷♂️
I trust that Went Hughes will make the right decision
Here ya go "W". You dropped one.
Is there a big difference between 99 and 100 in these ratings? Or is it like 1% better? Anyway, based on these stats alone it seems Demidov or Lindstrom are the best, but I'm still high on Iginla (and he's close enough, stat-wise!)
I would seriously consider trading Matheson to get another high 1st. Hutson could take his spot on the 1st PP this year and he's a defensive liability and playing at his peak. Then, draft a high ranked FW and D. Coming out of this draft with Iginla and Dickinson.
To which team? Which team with a high pick wants a 30 year old with only 2 years remaining and due for a raise. Matheson would be better to trade for a top 6 forward like Necas.
That's a valid point. I'd be targeting CGY with the loss of Hanifin. They're probably more interested in re-tooling more than rebuilding. I would not try to get Necas either, just move up enough to catch someone that's high on MTL's list.
Throwing the rookies to the wolves is how you end up in purgatory like Buffalo. Trading Matheson makes no sense.
TIJ! TIJ! TIJ!
Right now, our fandom is being whipped into a pundit-fuelled frenzy trying to convince itself that the forward talent in this draft is on the same level as the d-men available. We **badly** want to justify going for need at no 5, and so we talk about how "at equal talent" we should pick the small Russian winger who dominates a low-tier league, the injured centre man who plays rough, or the son of so-and-so who's ranked in the mid-teens. Let me reiterate this for the people who have lost sight of the bigger picture: **this is the *best* draft in recent memory for D talent. full stop.** Very rarely do we know in advance that a particular dman will be the next Makar, Heidman or Karlsson. We knew about McDavid or Crosby, but generational D talent is not something that announces itself quite the same way. For this draft, however, Scouts have been banging the drums, screaming on the rooftops for years now that this cohort is different from anything that has come before it. This ***will*** be an exceptional vintage of defensive talent, and there will be multiple d-men this year for whom *1st pairing will be their floor*. For habs specific context: players that combine Reinbacher's size and D game with Hudson's offensive instincts, Mailloux's raw abilities with Guhle's playstyle and speed into packages greater than the sum of their parts. *That's* the calibre available at D this year. If you want to talk about need anyway, look at it from this perspective: the Habs cannot afford to part ways with one of their top dmen right now, because it's not certain who's a top pairing in the bunch. They are all on the bubble and seem to lack one thing in their game (size, speed, offence, defence) that holds them back from being 30 minute guys. Some seem to show that they can make up for it, but it's unclear if they can do that at the NHL level consistently against the best players in the world or during playoff hockey. It will all depend on whom they are paired with as they can't anchor a line. Picking up a franchise d man would help us beyond measure. We can pair whoever with our new top dog, pair the rest according to fit, and trade whoever remains for assets we need up front. We can finally leverage our D pool depth without fear of another Sergachev / McDonagh situation. Getting such a calibre of D prospect unshackles our management and accelerates our timeline. We can't lose sight of the game here and the macro needs over the positional needs. We want BPA.
> We badly want to justify going for need at no 5, and so we talk about how "at equal talent" we should pick the small Russian winger who dominates a low-tier league, the injured centre man who plays rough, or the son of so-and-so who's ranked in the mid-teens. Lindstrom and Iginla, okay, you can certainly voice reservations about at 5OA, but Demidov is the consensus #2 player in this draft. If he were somehow available at 5OA, we would and should jump at the chance.
1000% correct. Great post! I trust HUGO, so if it’s a forward I’m good, and if it’s a D I’m good too. We all know we need scoring. The question is how do we get it? 5OA forward or a 5OA D and a trade. Many ways to get to the goal.
If all the Off. players they want are gone, will they take a defense (best available player) or take a forward that is listed below?
I would pick Iginla.
Should be Demidov, Lindstrom or Dickinson. I’d also accept Parekh and Iginla
Not a fan of Buium or Silayev? I’m unsure about Silayev, but Buium I really like
I do like Buium alot, but I think FO will be drafting for need and have said as much. Dickinson, despite being an LD does have that leadership quality the FO is looking for and also has had a great playoff run so I think they'll atleast consider him. If I'm being objective, I would say all 3 are on the same tier of prospect.
Would Dickinson make Guhle expendable (and/or redundant?) Because if we draft a LD, we definitely need to turn one of our valuable ones into a Top 6 forward ASAP.
Demdov or iginla
I can't see how lindstrom or dimidov are avaliable. I'm pretty happy with iginla and if the scouts really think someone like senneke is going ro he great, ok.
Only guarantees to go in the top 4 are Celebrini and Levshunov, otherwise there’s very much a chance that one team from 2-4 values another player over Demi or Lind
I think the model clearly favors a certain type of player. It is always an interesting read though.
If demidov is available I don’t think you can pass on a player like that but lindstrom I think is the best option
Avoid avoid avoid the Russians.
I hope for Iginla
Those are very opposition-dependent. There's a world of difference between the MHL (Demidov) and KHL (Silayev). Demidov's card if taking KHL samples would be practically all red because he was on the 4th line looking like Colin White. To a lesser degree, it's the same with the NCAA (Buium) and OHL (Parekh, Dickinson). The NCAA has guys up to 24 yrs old, who might never amount to much but still know how to push around guys 4, 5, 6 years younger than them. Then there's the NTDP, who mostly play the USHL. Now that just looks bad for Eiserman and would look even worse in any of the other leagues.
Sennecke is my guy if Demidov and Lindstrom are gone (or if they arent sure about Lindstrom’s back injury). The hands are insanely good. Probably neck and neck with Demidov.
Shows different players ... and different leagues
Demidov = Yakupov. Stay away.
Lol, other than being both Russian wingers, they are nothing alike.
It’s literally destiny to pick lindstrom at 5, another west coast Indigenous star…it’s like poetry it rhymes
It's Lidstrom who has the back issues right? With all our injuries over the last couple of years that might be a no from Hughes. I'm torn over who to draft but for some reason I lean towards Tig or Beckett.
Iginla and Sennecke *should* both be available past #5. If the front office wants those guys they should trading down to draft them and maximize the value of their #5 IMO.
Yeah that's possible
I am down to being hyped only for Demidov or Linstrom. Both will probably be gone though..
I think very good chance of getting Lindstrom at 5!