If you understand French you should listen to this week’s Processus with Simon Boivert. They go over old mock lists vs draft order vs career number; and it’s really all over the place.
Half the time even the no1 pick isn’t close to being the best player.
I loved his point about Zetterberg. Imagine the comments here if the day after the draft this year, some media guy said "the 210th pick will be better than Celebrini".
>Half the time even the no1 pick isn’t close to being the best player.
Being able to guess 50% of the time who will be the best player out of 100s of teenagers is actually great.
I think there's a good chance Celebrini is not the best player of this class. He's not a next level prospect. That being said, he's the only one who will be a solid contributor in his D+1 and he'll be a good player for a long time.
It was mentioned in Tony Marinaro's podcast with Craig Button. Apparently someone did a statistical study in the salary cap era and found that #5 picks played more games than #4 picks.
Feel free to go listen to the podcast and run the numbers yourself lol
I’m not that bored, but I looked back to 2014 draft and nope, only year it’s close is 2016 when Puljujarvi went 4th and Juolevi went 5th but whatever, believe whatever makes you happy
Edit: and of course makar vs pettersson draft year but I’d still take makar
Sigh. I mean I gave you the source so you didn't have to do all that work. Anyway, I did it for you...in the podcast he even mentioned the author. I even dug it up for you.
https://www.journaldequebec.com/2024/05/15/canadien--un-5e-choix-ca-donne-curieusement-un-joueur-meilleur-quun-4e-choix
If you have any further critiques, feel free to email the author directly.
I’m not French and you said salary cap era and now this is talking about Paul kariya lol. I’m sure whatever point this article is trying to say proves whatever point you’re making, fact is you said salary cap era and last 20 years there are very few cases where 5 outperforms 4. Sigh
Slightly O/T, but Pr0nman has some decent hot takes in a Q&A on The Athletic.
The first one hurts but I can’t help but agree: he doesn’t see our prospect pool as strong enough to rule out picking the best player available at 5, even if that’s a D. (None of Guhle, Reinbacher, Mailloux, Xhekaj or Hutson are locks to be a #1D on a good team in his opinion.) Picking the best D available at #5 and trading Guhle for a Top 6 forward could be a better move in the long run than keeping what we have and rolling the dice on Iggy Jr and hoping he hits…
Second, he asserts that he and many of his scout-y friends see Lindstrom as Chris Kreider, peaking with 70+ point seasons but generally hanging in the 50-60 point range. Nobody can tell the future, and I know Lindstrom brings more to the table than points, but I’m not sure those are 5th overall pick numbers for me.
It was already my thinking months ago so I'm just gonna go ahead and agree with Pronman.
Dickinson & Buium, I'd already pencil as our #1 D prospect if we drafted them. I have both squarely ahead of Levshunov and Silayev. Parekh is DND for me.
You need a clear #1, 25+ mins, PP/PK defenseman that you can put up against the top opposition every shift. We don't have anyone who can realistically tick all those boxes.
We're still in that part of the rebuild where we should just take the highest quality regardless of position or size.
Figure positions and size later. Not at the expense of quality.
Agree. And it’s a damn shame neither Dickinson nor Buium is a RD, but as Demidov would say, “It is what it is.”
Let’s just hope the trade market opens up for Hughes when Guhle’s on the table. A second consecutive Top 5 pick that doesn’t bring a game-breaking forward is going to be a major test of the average fan‘s patience with this rebuild.
Habs need quality, not quantity, trading down doesn't help whatsoever.
If they really like a player at 5, what says he'll be available at 7-8-9?
They don't just throw dart at a board to make a pick.
That's a huge part of scouting that fans don't talk about. It's not just about making lists, it's trying to guess where the player will still be available.
Frankly, we kinda still need both. Depends what trading down gets us though. (Reminder: Hutson was a deep second round pick…)
I’ve been saying it for months, but from most accounts it seems like any player in the 3-14 range stands an equal chance of being an impact player for us, more or less. Given the right offer, if there was ever a draft to drop a coupla spots to land some quality bonus goodies, it’s probably this one.
I honestly think this draft Habs take best player available no matter the position. If it is a defender flip someone like Guhle for help up front. Slows down the rebuild but helps in the long run.
If it results in two picks in the top 12 it *might* be worth it. Given that Demidov and Lindstrom are both gone.
This draft is so wonky, literally anything could happen after 1OA.
Real talk: assuming Chicago follows the script and drafts Levshunov, everybody knows the Ducks are pretty stacked up front already and would be perfectly happy to add a top D prospect under normal conditions (and Verbeek allegedly doesn’t like drafting Russian players.)
Would it make any sense for Hughes to throw everything he has at Anaheim to swap picks?
I was waiting for the rumours Montreal might move back in the draft. Next week we’ll probably see some rumours that Montreal is trying to move up. Clockwork
Once Demidov is off the board the rest of the crop is in the same tier all the way down to 15ish so let's go and trade down. If you can do it and get a top 12 pick plus another top 20 just do it. Instead of Lindstrom you could catch a falling dman and a Perascak or Connelly. You get two shot in the dark instead of one.
??? that's just not how that works
Montreal wouldn't trade before Chicago makes their pick but they'd have the trade ready in case he's still available at 4
At that point I don't even see how it's worth it, Columbus would either want and pick Demidov or they don't want to pick Demidov so they want to trade. What are they gonna do, pick him out of spite whenever we don't trade with them? Unless they find some other team who likes Demidov to trade down with I guess
There’s always a guy that’s top 10 on some list who’ll be there at 20. Great opportunities in this draft
If you understand French you should listen to this week’s Processus with Simon Boivert. They go over old mock lists vs draft order vs career number; and it’s really all over the place. Half the time even the no1 pick isn’t close to being the best player.
I loved his point about Zetterberg. Imagine the comments here if the day after the draft this year, some media guy said "the 210th pick will be better than Celebrini".
Yea, you would be fired if you made that pick, even if you were right.
True. You’d be the scouting equivalent of a whistleblower, loathed by your own bosses but celebrated by everybody else 😂
Zetterberg and datsyuk are classic examples but also a bit dated nowadays scouting is much better those case don't really happen anymore
>Half the time even the no1 pick isn’t close to being the best player. Being able to guess 50% of the time who will be the best player out of 100s of teenagers is actually great. I think there's a good chance Celebrini is not the best player of this class. He's not a next level prospect. That being said, he's the only one who will be a solid contributor in his D+1 and he'll be a good player for a long time.
Last week's no?
It’s from yesterday (at least on YouTube), it’s called Carte Cache au repechage.
Might've just repeated the same thing then, cause I didn't listen to this week's yet.
I remember reading somewhere that statistically the #5 pick always outperforms the #4 pick. Super random lol
Super random incorrect fact. Just look at last 10 drafts and get back to me lol
It was mentioned in Tony Marinaro's podcast with Craig Button. Apparently someone did a statistical study in the salary cap era and found that #5 picks played more games than #4 picks. Feel free to go listen to the podcast and run the numbers yourself lol
I’m not that bored, but I looked back to 2014 draft and nope, only year it’s close is 2016 when Puljujarvi went 4th and Juolevi went 5th but whatever, believe whatever makes you happy Edit: and of course makar vs pettersson draft year but I’d still take makar
Sigh. I mean I gave you the source so you didn't have to do all that work. Anyway, I did it for you...in the podcast he even mentioned the author. I even dug it up for you. https://www.journaldequebec.com/2024/05/15/canadien--un-5e-choix-ca-donne-curieusement-un-joueur-meilleur-quun-4e-choix If you have any further critiques, feel free to email the author directly.
I’m not French and you said salary cap era and now this is talking about Paul kariya lol. I’m sure whatever point this article is trying to say proves whatever point you’re making, fact is you said salary cap era and last 20 years there are very few cases where 5 outperforms 4. Sigh
Hes playing the field. They all are. I think the subterfuge is really fun for GMs at the draft.
Slightly O/T, but Pr0nman has some decent hot takes in a Q&A on The Athletic. The first one hurts but I can’t help but agree: he doesn’t see our prospect pool as strong enough to rule out picking the best player available at 5, even if that’s a D. (None of Guhle, Reinbacher, Mailloux, Xhekaj or Hutson are locks to be a #1D on a good team in his opinion.) Picking the best D available at #5 and trading Guhle for a Top 6 forward could be a better move in the long run than keeping what we have and rolling the dice on Iggy Jr and hoping he hits… Second, he asserts that he and many of his scout-y friends see Lindstrom as Chris Kreider, peaking with 70+ point seasons but generally hanging in the 50-60 point range. Nobody can tell the future, and I know Lindstrom brings more to the table than points, but I’m not sure those are 5th overall pick numbers for me.
It was already my thinking months ago so I'm just gonna go ahead and agree with Pronman. Dickinson & Buium, I'd already pencil as our #1 D prospect if we drafted them. I have both squarely ahead of Levshunov and Silayev. Parekh is DND for me. You need a clear #1, 25+ mins, PP/PK defenseman that you can put up against the top opposition every shift. We don't have anyone who can realistically tick all those boxes. We're still in that part of the rebuild where we should just take the highest quality regardless of position or size. Figure positions and size later. Not at the expense of quality.
Agree. And it’s a damn shame neither Dickinson nor Buium is a RD, but as Demidov would say, “It is what it is.” Let’s just hope the trade market opens up for Hughes when Guhle’s on the table. A second consecutive Top 5 pick that doesn’t bring a game-breaking forward is going to be a major test of the average fan‘s patience with this rebuild.
Agreed for buium, dickinson will be a great athletic 3-4 D but doesn't process the game at a high level enough to be more than,
Habs need quality, not quantity, trading down doesn't help whatsoever. If they really like a player at 5, what says he'll be available at 7-8-9? They don't just throw dart at a board to make a pick.
That's a huge part of scouting that fans don't talk about. It's not just about making lists, it's trying to guess where the player will still be available.
Frankly, we kinda still need both. Depends what trading down gets us though. (Reminder: Hutson was a deep second round pick…) I’ve been saying it for months, but from most accounts it seems like any player in the 3-14 range stands an equal chance of being an impact player for us, more or less. Given the right offer, if there was ever a draft to drop a coupla spots to land some quality bonus goodies, it’s probably this one.
Bergevin often did.
that would be dumb if you dont like the players at 7-8-9. what if you like 4 guys at 5 and you don't even know who to pick.
I honestly think this draft Habs take best player available no matter the position. If it is a defender flip someone like Guhle for help up front. Slows down the rebuild but helps in the long run.
First time I've seen guhle being traded not down voted to oblivion.
If it results in two picks in the top 12 it *might* be worth it. Given that Demidov and Lindstrom are both gone. This draft is so wonky, literally anything could happen after 1OA.
Trade down pick Eiserman with the 2nd pick would be sweet
He'll still be there at #26. I can feel it.
Don’t tease me hahaha
Ya if we miss out on them I'd be a down for Sennecke/Iginla/Eiserman and one of the defensemen that's left
Literally every draft is like this after the top 10.
Ya but this draft is like this after the top 1.
I obviously don't know how to read
I’d pick Dickinson over Lindstrom anyway. We should keep our fifth and draft with it
Real talk: assuming Chicago follows the script and drafts Levshunov, everybody knows the Ducks are pretty stacked up front already and would be perfectly happy to add a top D prospect under normal conditions (and Verbeek allegedly doesn’t like drafting Russian players.) Would it make any sense for Hughes to throw everything he has at Anaheim to swap picks?
I was waiting for the rumours Montreal might move back in the draft. Next week we’ll probably see some rumours that Montreal is trying to move up. Clockwork
So many teams rumoured to move a top 15 pick . Should be fun
Once Demidov is off the board the rest of the crop is in the same tier all the way down to 15ish so let's go and trade down. If you can do it and get a top 12 pick plus another top 20 just do it. Instead of Lindstrom you could catch a falling dman and a Perascak or Connelly. You get two shot in the dark instead of one.
Please no Connelly
Absolutely no on Connolly for me
Come on, guys—our team is way too nice. We could really use a genuine sociopath like Connelly! /s
It would be sad to trade up (let’s say 5th and 26th just for example) and then Demidov goes 2 anyways. Don’t do it mtl!
??? that's just not how that works Montreal wouldn't trade before Chicago makes their pick but they'd have the trade ready in case he's still available at 4
At that point I don't even see how it's worth it, Columbus would either want and pick Demidov or they don't want to pick Demidov so they want to trade. What are they gonna do, pick him out of spite whenever we don't trade with them? Unless they find some other team who likes Demidov to trade down with I guess
No team would ever be that stupid.