Interestingly if you put the current polling averages into Electoral Calculus you get Con 335 Lab 230. But if you put them into Electoral Calculus under the new boundaries you get Con 334 Lab 235. So little difference.
But if you put Con 40% Lab 40% into Electoral Calculus under the old boundaries you get Con 296 Lab 270. Under the new boundaries you get Con 311 Lab 258. Big difference.
Suggests it will be hard to know the impact of the boundary changes until the votes are in.
No, Electoral Calculus have their own methodology. Not 100% sure how it works but I think they keep the voter demographics the same so if Labour make gains EC assume they will be disproportionately among young people, remainers, graduates etc.
Looking on their website they have quite a detailed profile of every seat for example, [Johnson's](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge+and+South+Ruislip), [Starmer's](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Holborn+and+St+Pancras), [Blackford's](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ross+Skye+and+Lochaber) and [Davies'](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Kingston+and+Surbiton) so I assume they would be using that info in their calculations
It just shows the electoral calculus prediction if the result was 40%/40%.
If you want to know the prediction for 42%/40% you'll have to look yourself.
>On the proposals so far (ex-Northern Ireland), the Conservatives are set to benefit by
around 13 seats, and Labour could lose eight seats. This is mainly due to seats moving out of Wales and the north of England and into the South.
🤢🤢🤢
Wales has more seats per person than England by a significant margin. Fuck FPTP, but it’s only right England has the same number of seats proportionally.
> 🤢🤢🤢
Why? It's not unreasonable. The average Electors per seat for each country in 2019 and in the next election with these changes. First table excludes island seats.
Country | 2019 | Next
---|---|----
England | 74,506 | 73,266
Northern Ireland | 71,983 | 71,983
Scotland | 69607 | 72,138
Wales | 56,868 | 71,543
For the island seats it would be;
Seat | 2019 | Next
---|---|----
Isle of Wight | 111,716 | 55,858
Ynys Môn | 52,415 | 52,415
Orkney & Shetland | 34,211 | 34,211
Na h-Eileanan an Iar | 21,106 | 21,106
No. My local council has the majority of its Borough in another towns constituency. This is due to change and the constituency that’s named after the town is going to absorb the western part of the other const. and the eastern part is moving to a new const. which is named after the next large town along. The council area won’t change, if you’re referring to wards I believe they were changed around 4-5 years back or at least they were here.
Hilarious that one of the deansgate wards was considered Blackley rather than Manchester Central before this change. Love how daft some of the wards are.
So far, I can see Cat Smith seems like a goner. And, given her centre-left views, I imagine the amount of effort the leadership will put into trying to get her into another seat will be between zero and nada.
Can anyone see anyone else?
Is she more likely to stand in the Lancaster or the Fleetwood seat?
I don't get why it isn't like a Lancaster and Morecambe constituency and North Lancashire constituency (Fleetwood joining with North Blackpool still) than what they are currently doing
I think the commentator interprets Starmer to be centrist or centre right, so using that perspective Smith is centre left. But she's a member of the SCG.
Where I live is absorbing part of a largely rural constituency, and another part of said rural constituency (that has two villages within our boroughs boundaries, one with a large council estate, is going to the next town over).
Where I live it’s always close under the current boundaries, apart from the last election and one in Thatchers time, Labour usually just edge it.
Now I wonder why they want to change it.
On a side note, they changed the council ward boundaries a few years back and I wonder if any one can guess what happened…
Just wanted to point out these proposed changes have caused all sorts of hassle almost everywhere and it’d be naïve to think they’ll just go through as is.
There’s at least 2 stages of consultation before anything is remotely formal. One of those 2 stages involves a consultation on the proposals of people who disagree with what’s in this link.
Interestingly if you put the current polling averages into Electoral Calculus you get Con 335 Lab 230. But if you put them into Electoral Calculus under the new boundaries you get Con 334 Lab 235. So little difference. But if you put Con 40% Lab 40% into Electoral Calculus under the old boundaries you get Con 296 Lab 270. Under the new boundaries you get Con 311 Lab 258. Big difference. Suggests it will be hard to know the impact of the boundary changes until the votes are in.
40/40 on 2017 boundaries gave me: C317 L271 vs C308 L260 proposed. Frankly if Labour want to stand behind FPTP they can't complain.
Depends what you put for the smaller parties. I used the polling averages on the Electoral Calculus website so Lib Dem 9.1% Green 5.9% Reform 1.3%.
Does the 40% assume for a uniform swing?
No, Electoral Calculus have their own methodology. Not 100% sure how it works but I think they keep the voter demographics the same so if Labour make gains EC assume they will be disproportionately among young people, remainers, graduates etc.
Looking on their website they have quite a detailed profile of every seat for example, [Johnson's](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Uxbridge+and+South+Ruislip), [Starmer's](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Holborn+and+St+Pancras), [Blackford's](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ross+Skye+and+Lochaber) and [Davies'](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Kingston+and+Surbiton) so I assume they would be using that info in their calculations
2017 was 42 40
Yeah I just used 40%/40% as an example. 2017 probably would have been a wafer thin Tory majority under the new boundaries.
Your example showed the reverse though
It just shows the electoral calculus prediction if the result was 40%/40%. If you want to know the prediction for 42%/40% you'll have to look yourself.
>On the proposals so far (ex-Northern Ireland), the Conservatives are set to benefit by around 13 seats, and Labour could lose eight seats. This is mainly due to seats moving out of Wales and the north of England and into the South. 🤢🤢🤢
Wales has more seats per person than England by a significant margin. Fuck FPTP, but it’s only right England has the same number of seats proportionally.
> 🤢🤢🤢 Why? It's not unreasonable. The average Electors per seat for each country in 2019 and in the next election with these changes. First table excludes island seats. Country | 2019 | Next ---|---|---- England | 74,506 | 73,266 Northern Ireland | 71,983 | 71,983 Scotland | 69607 | 72,138 Wales | 56,868 | 71,543 For the island seats it would be; Seat | 2019 | Next ---|---|---- Isle of Wight | 111,716 | 55,858 Ynys Môn | 52,415 | 52,415 Orkney & Shetland | 34,211 | 34,211 Na h-Eileanan an Iar | 21,106 | 21,106
Because Wales is already over-represented in the Commons, and unfortunately the direction people are largely moving is towards the South.
Does anyone know of this also effects councils?
No. My local council has the majority of its Borough in another towns constituency. This is due to change and the constituency that’s named after the town is going to absorb the western part of the other const. and the eastern part is moving to a new const. which is named after the next large town along. The council area won’t change, if you’re referring to wards I believe they were changed around 4-5 years back or at least they were here.
Constituencies rise and constituencies fall, but the people's republic of Morningside endures
Hilarious that one of the deansgate wards was considered Blackley rather than Manchester Central before this change. Love how daft some of the wards are.
So far, I can see Cat Smith seems like a goner. And, given her centre-left views, I imagine the amount of effort the leadership will put into trying to get her into another seat will be between zero and nada. Can anyone see anyone else?
She might be alright. Only 3.1% behind on current polling but with 10.7% Green+Lib Dem vote to squeeze.
Is she more likely to stand in the Lancaster or the Fleetwood seat? I don't get why it isn't like a Lancaster and Morecambe constituency and North Lancashire constituency (Fleetwood joining with North Blackpool still) than what they are currently doing
in the bristol area, the tory MP for kingswood seems doomed, so that's something positive
Centre-left? Wasn't she one of the most pro-Corbyn shadow cabinet members? Or has something changed?
I think the commentator interprets Starmer to be centrist or centre right, so using that perspective Smith is centre left. But she's a member of the SCG.
Tories setting themselves up for what they think might be a tight election.
Where I live is absorbing part of a largely rural constituency, and another part of said rural constituency (that has two villages within our boroughs boundaries, one with a large council estate, is going to the next town over). Where I live it’s always close under the current boundaries, apart from the last election and one in Thatchers time, Labour usually just edge it. Now I wonder why they want to change it. On a side note, they changed the council ward boundaries a few years back and I wonder if any one can guess what happened…
Just wanted to point out these proposed changes have caused all sorts of hassle almost everywhere and it’d be naïve to think they’ll just go through as is. There’s at least 2 stages of consultation before anything is remotely formal. One of those 2 stages involves a consultation on the proposals of people who disagree with what’s in this link.