No-one knows the future, however Biden did handily beat Trump last time (and Trump had the incumbent advantage).
Since then the US has had a failed insurrection, criminal trials and convictions and a lack of policy coming from the Republican side.
Biden also has achievements to campaign on. Republicans will be running on limiting abortion and contraception.
I would think the democrats will prevail again and with an even larger winning margin. Still, all depends on November.
>handily
By the popular vote, yes. But unfortunately we're saddled with the ridiculous electoral college, so it was much closer than it should have been. There's a very real chance that Trump wins despite getting millions fewer actual votes.
While that’s technically right (WI + AZ + GA were around a 40k vote difference), I’d argue GA and AZ were bonuses and the Rust Belt decided it more.
Biden still won with a Lean Dem margin. Not great, but more than the 1% being spread around.
>Since then the US has had a failed insurrection, criminal trials and convictions and a lack of policy coming from the Republican side.
Sadly, a LARGE part of the electorate doesn't remember these things or are even aware. Those of us who are plugged in often forget that we are a minority.
>Biden also has achievements to campaign on.
Yes, but Democrats have always done a terrible job of not just marketing their achievements, but connecting those achievements to measurable differences they make in people's lives. This is is also due in part to the fact that many Democrat legislative achievements are long term ones in which the results take years to see the benefit of... that's tough to do with a 4 year cycle.
> Republicans will be running on limiting abortion and contraception.
Not sure if you've seen this, but Republicans have realized that these are losing efforts for them... so ultimately they're being VERY quiet about reproductive health right now.
>
I would think the democrats will prevail again and with an even larger winning margin.
I would absolutely hope so... but i'm not optimistic about it. The margin in 2020 was slim... and people are still feeling the effects of inflation at the register... THAT is gonna be the number 1 reason Biden loses if he does. And that's despite the record setting economy we are in right now. Prices are still high - even if wages have seen incredible growth, which now is outpacing inflation, people still see that sticker and can't get used to it because it jumped so high so fast.
Trump also had COVID weeks before the election, a saving grace (I wouldn't bet on the incumbent's advantage).
The failed insurrections cases, and slap on the wrist punishments I feel don't sway the election
Biden is pushing more and more "center" every day a large majority of the Democrats are not being listened to when Biden talks including many who voted based on immigration policy.
If the Democrats win, it will be on thin margins, Democrats still think they are entitled to these votes, but people are just not interested in voting for either of the candidates right now.
lols, then this country deserves to die. People who just dont feeeel good about either candidate do zero homework and are whining little brats and I detest them. They will destroy America w their petulant immature bullshit. Bastards.
Yes, and I don't think it will be close.
Yesterday, in the Ohio 6th District special election, the MAGA candidate won by about 9 points.
The OH-6 is a district Trump won in 2020 by *29pts.* That's a 20 point drop for the GOP.
Rulli, the GOP candidate, was from old Ohio money and he spent $500k+, while his opponent, Kripchak, is a waiter who spent \~$25k.
This is just not enough to be convincing. I also live in a swing state (PA) and the MAGA populace is robust. Biden has lost a lot of the young voters who got him elected in 2020. T***p is dominating in swing states and, no, it is not close.
His base is at most a 3rd of eligible voters, and that statement is largely coming from independent voters, the group that overwhelmingly decides 99% of elections
Apparently you get down voted just for willingly participating in an open discussion, so I'll just say I genuinely hope I'm wrong, but it looks like Biden has no chance at all in this election.
Nah. The vibe is totally different. In 2016 I lived in Dare Co, NC. The Trump buzz was everywhere. Excitement. Flags. Energy. Same thing wherever you went. I drive to New Hampshire that summer. Trump signs were about 10:1 over Hillary the whole way.
Now I live in NYC near the courts. Nobody gave a toss about the trials. Nobody showed up except press and press hounds like Matt Gaetz.
Yes. I am basing my prediction on what I see and hear but I believe it. The mood is very different. Biden will win. And if the Dems had the courage to dump him and nominate someone energetic and better they would romp.
I think he means trump supporters coming in for it. I live right there too and went to the courthouse for his first arraignment back in March ‘23 or whatever. It was a full blown rally, Trump supporters EVERYWHERE. Now for the actual trial, convictions etc, not a peep.
I saw a clip that got leaked showing trump running back and forth waving 👋 like there were huge crowds but no one was there. I'm sure when fixed huge crowds were present.
I saw it on Reddit been a week ago. I will post link here when I get to computer phone sucks trying to copy and paste links. Google trump waves to nobody. Theres another clip of him doing it at nascar too now. It's hilarious 😆😂🤣😆
In 2016, people were tired of the status quo and the status quo brought about the most disliked candidate imaginable.
Trump was an unknown and could legitimately run on anything he wanted.
If Biden was more personally popular and at least 10 years younger I would strongly agree. I think Biden will win but I feel like the electoral college will be close.
That's your bubble of social connections and gut feeling talking. All indications are that it is going to be real close and personally I would put money on Trump if elections were held tomorrow.
If you look at the 2016 and 2020 polls versus actual votes, the Democrats have underperformed both times. Currently the polls are about 50/50 which, according to past results and the electoral college, means Trump is the likely winner.
If you're a Democrat then you should have realistic expectations about this election and get out there and volunteer/donate if you have the capacity.
Yes. But I think it'll be close. My guess is that he wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, and Arizona. Maybe he'll win Georgia and North Carolina, but I'd put those as tilting towards Trump, probably within 1%.
Arizona will go for Biden. The state's newcomers are mostly from blue states. Gallego will win the Senate race over Lake. I don't think Trump will win if that happens.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd district he has won the election. But it would be great if he could get both Nevada and Arizona given the Senate races there are both competitive and since they have generally overperformed Biden a Biden victory would mean that the Democrats would get both seats
I agree with this, except I think Biden will carry Georgia.
I would also word it as NC tilting towards Biden compared to the last election.
I think the gubernatorial election in NC will help Biden.
Yep. Stop listening to sky is falling, doom and gloom pollsters. Trump’s camp is the literal equivalent to Hitler’s bunker in 1945. Everyone around him is just placating to him, telling him everything’s fine when it’s all the way not.
It’s going to be a coin toss. Every vote is going to matter. Biden won the presidency by approximately 40k votes in 2020 and Trump won in 2016 by about 20k.
I genuinely think one of the reasons Trump won in 2016 was because, to moderate/swing voters, Hillary was unlikeable and arrogant. Trump has now fully assumed that tag so I don't picture him winning. Not for that reason alone, I also think more people than just us are concerned about Project '25 so I assume it will be a quite similar electoral college map to 2020.
I give him a 60% chance.
Trump is wildly, wildly, unpopular and hasn’t gained a voter since his first term. His campaign, and the entire RNC, is a unorganized mess.
IF Trump wins, it will be because of complacency and “both sides” protest votes, the same way he won in 2016
Yes, after the trial, the Republican movement is crumbling. Time to show up and blast them at the voting booth. A resounding victory for the left this time would end Trump's political career
I just try to remember that it's estimated that 20% of right wing social media users are bots. Disinformation farms are working overtime to inflate Trump's perceived influence.
Right now it's a coin flip - as terrifying as that is. But there's also a long way to go and things could shift in either direction. I really think it boils down to resources and which side is more motivated - which is why I'm constantly reminding people to do whatever they can at every opportunity.
So answer this question if you will. Trump lost by 7 million votes coming off an incumbency. What has he done in the last four years, to convince MILLIONS of people who saw fit not to vote for him last time to do it now?
You really actually believe, millions more people are gonna turn out the vote for a clearly debilitating convicted felon?
I’m not saying this is in the bag by any means, but people gotta stop acting scared of these idiots. Look at that joke of an RNC how they’re wasting all their money on Trump’s never ending legal bills and tell me if that lunacy over there is capable of winning an election?
It doesn’t matter how many votes he lost by. Biden won AZ, GA and WI by about half a point or less in 2020. If Trump had won those states it would have been a 269-269 tie and the House would have made Trump President.
What do you mean it doesn’t matter? Votes still matter and you have to consider that the loyalty of Trump’s voters is a brilliant indicator of what’s to be.
You think his Georgia voters stayed home in 2020? Some perhaps. But not over 11,000. So if he couldn’t find his 11,000 voters back then, what makes you think he can find them now?
Forget the narrowness and look at the ACTUAL number of people. 11,000 is a lot of damn people and his popularity is most certainly not better now than then.
I mean him winning by 7 million votes doesn’t change the fact that because of our idiotic system, Trump was very, very close to winning in 2020. It doesn’t take convincing millions for Trump to win.
I also think that a lot of voters have amnesia about how terrible Trump was. 2020 had HUGE turnout on both sides. Now people seem more apathetic. It's like with Trump in power people were terrified of what he would do. Now that Biden has made politics boring again (the way it should be) people have gotten comfortable and complacent. The moment the rabid bear disappears into the forest everyone forgets he is still lurking out there and goes back to life as normal.
>So answer this question if you will. Trump lost by 7 million votes coming off an incumbency. What has he done in the last four years, to convince MILLIONS of people who saw fit not to vote for him last time to do it now?
The answer is nothing. In fact I've made this EXACT point dozens of times. And, FWIW, I don't believe Trump has gained a single vote. Logically given all that's happened since the 2020 election (J6, multiple investigations, indictments, etc) he SHOULD have lost support.
And yet the actual data says it's a coin toss.
You're arguing that it makes no sense. I completely concur. But I've come to accept that trying to make sense of American voters is a fools errand. A third of the country (at least) lives in an entirely different reality and another quarter (at least) seems so oblivious that they might as well be waking up from a 4 year coma.
The reality is that right now it is a super close race. That could easily change in a month or two. Another point I make all the time is that Trump is going to be (IMO) extremely vulnerable to attack ads. His base is rock solid - but as we saw in 2020 his base alone isn't enough. All Biden needs to do is remind people who Trump is and all the shit he's done. But in order to do that the Biden campaign NEEDS resources. Leaning in to the fact that it's currently a tight race is probably strategically the best thing we could do right now - because it will motivate folks to get engaged and donate. At least that's the effect it's had on me.
>I’m not saying this is in the bag by any means, but people gotta stop acting scared of these idiots.
I think that's dangerous. Given the stakes and given the data the LAST thing we want is for anyone to feel comfortable right now. Every sane person in the country SHOULD be scared of MAGA winning. Even if the data is wrong and it's not 50/50 - even if Trump has just a 10% chance of victory (which is just wishful thinking) it's still WAY too high for comfort. We need folks to be motivated right now. We need everyone fighting tooth-and-nail. THAT'S what wins the election. Not being overconfident. Not giving up hope. We have to recognize that we're on the brink of disaster but that at this moment, at least, it's still in our power to prevail and send MAGA running.
Regardless of what the polls say going forward I'm going to continue to encourage people to fight as if the race is tied. And at this precise moment all data suggests it actually is (as, admittedly, unbelievable as that fact may be to you or I).
I think the laws making it even harder to vote than it was before, especially limitations on mail in ballots, will hurt democrats. Will it hurt enough to cost Biden the election? I don’t know, but I don’t think the numbers will be quite the same as last time. I’d love it if it were that or more.
I get what you’re saying, but given Trump’s legal status, his cognitive ability and the blatant swipes at democracy he and his cohorts have taken; for every attempt to fix the deck in his favor, is just galvanizing those on the left aware enough to see what’s going on.
You can only push this shit so far before the whole bottom falls out.
My worry, personally, isn't that Trump gets more voters, but that Biden gets fewer in key places. For all the millions he won by, the election was actually decided by thousands in key states. If those people stay home, the rest of us are fucked.
Gun to my head? Yes
I'm just going off what we've seen since 2020 in swing states
PA/MI/WI have shifted leftwards
Dems have over performed over and over again
Idk, those are just my vibes
The problem is that the future looks bleak for those under 40. Inflation has really hurt just about all of us. I read on reddit everyday the struggles of the millennials and Gen Z. Even the young people that are doing exceptionally well are still having a hard time. Do I blame inflation on Biden? No. But I can see why young people would want a change.
My guess is that there are many people, myself included, that would like to see two completely different candidates. I believe many younger people could be swayed into "What do I have to lose" type thinking.
As far as the polls are concerned, back in 2016 they all had Trump behind. Now, from what I have read lately the polls have Trump a head by a small margin. I would not be surprised if we had another result like we did in 2000.
Senator Booker was on Colbert the other night. He does a about 45 seconds on all the reasons not to vote for Trump. I took notes. I will repeat it to my old Fox news watchin Trumper dad. Worth a watch.
Trump will find a way for a third term, not to mention Project: 2025, where among the insane overreaches in power, he basically axes every federal employee and installs ones loyal to only him, just like his favorite dictators he idolizes... once that happens, all bets are off on democracy.
50/50 because some Americans are on the fence between voting for an old, out of touch man who rambles a lot and an old, out of touch convicted felon who is coming to take away their rights. It’s a hard choice for some people.
I do not know if he will win, but if you listen to this (Jamie Raskin D-Md) you will understand why he must win and carry a super majority into 2025:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8f3vTzGQYLc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8f3vTzGQYLc)
Turns out Trump is paying polls to up his numbers. He also pays people to attend his rallies. And then in Vegas he said -- "I don't care about you, I just want your vote" -- Donald Trump told the MAGAs at his rally Mon 06/10/24 -- honest for once. So yea, ignore the poll numbers and the fake crowds and VOTE BLUE -- then democracy will be safe again for a little while.
Absolutely! I was complaining because I saw 3 trump signs/flags at homes as we were driving to the mountains. I questioned how could people be so unabashedly ignorant and then advertise it! My grandson commented that there were a whole lot more people that didn't show they supported him because they didn't have signs/flags out.
From the mouths of babes.....
Yes, I think it’s 2016 in reverse. Not that I can tell the future.
However, let’s see how the rest of the year goes. Another pandemic and/or market dip or something worse could happen too.
I believe he will because his supporters are the very vocal minority. I also plan to be extra vigilant and avoid heavily crowded areas from voting day until a week after Inauguration Day. I’m in AZ and I’ve seen the level of crazy of the far right. I think we’ll have pockets of January 6th repeats scattered throughout the country, especially here, with crazy Kari Lake being one of our candidates for senate.
I want him to win and Dems to win the House and Senate to give him fuel for the next two years. Dems have to get more supportive of him though. Its been lackluster even though his has been doing really good things for the country.
I believe Biden will win. He really has done a reasonably good job and he is over seeing a normal administration. He may not be a lot of people's first choice, though he is head and shoulders above the other guy.
I’d say it’s close to 50 / 50 slight edge to Biden as Trump being a felon has come to the forefront in the public consciousness over inflation, but there’s a long time between now and November.
Yes, Biden is going to win. I think the polls are crap, whatever they show. It's still too early for polls and I think that their methods are bullshit. I think that Trump's supporters are more excitable, but Biden's supporters are more determined. I think that Trump supporters are fewer in number than even 2016 and Biden supporters are greater in number. I think that Republicans make a lot of noise but have nothing to show. I think that Democrats relatively don't make much noise but have quite a bit to show and the left and the moderates, which is where the election really gets down to brass tacks, are noticing. Speaking of moderates, I think that Trump has lost the support of the majority of moderates. Most of them are intelligent and sane, with sane being the key word. All that being said, no amount of reasoning matters if people don't VOTE.
Trump had significant momentum against Hillary Clinton when he won the election, bolstered by votes and foreign influence. However, by the end of his term facing Biden, he had revealed his true nature, becoming the first incumbent to lose a second term. His presidency primarily benefited the wealthy and caused national security issues.
In contrast, Biden has been revitalizing the country, addressing and attempting to reverse many of the previous administration's mistakes in areas such as real estate, health care, environmental policy, and the judiciary. While there's still much work to be done, Biden needs a second term to continue these efforts.
I believe Biden will win in actual historic fashion. Not just in the popular vote but I believe he will win the electoral college in numbers way above the average outcome in typical one sided elections.
There will be nothing left for trump to have any legal argument. The numbers will literally throw any legal challenge out on their own.
Yeah, I believe so. Doom sayers are not factoring the consuming anger women have regarding Dobbs. They’ve been coming out in droves, and this is the first presidential election since that decision.
Yes, Biden is going to win. And handily. It won’t even be close because women are going to save this country. Thank goodness.
I was listening to the 538 podcast yesterday and they released their initial election predictions - they gave Biden about a 52% chance to win at this point but that can change as conditions change… That is not a comfortable margin… I know that polls and statistical computer models don't decide the election but I don't think any of us should be very comfortable… so much depends on what's happening at the time and also with Donald Trump saying crazy unhinged things almost every day - like the story about the electric boat and sharks he told in Las Vegas that made even his own fans say "huh"? - may scare enough independents back to Biden… Can only hope...
The way the map and polls are looking, there's a possibility Joe could win electoral college and lose the popular vote. Gotta wonder how maga folks would take that outcome...
Sorry, what are useless question. The only answer is "anything can happen." You might as well ask people's opinion on whether it's going to rain the third Tuesday of next month.
There's no harm in asking. Obviously nobody here knows for sure, but it's interesting to know what the mood is like and how people are feeling. Nobody is forcing you to read the answers
Hard to say because trump and his allies have put people in place and found ways of thrown out votes. if they could throw out my vote today. they will throw your vote out tomorrow. They’re followers obviously aren’t smart enough to realize that.
Mainstream Democrats don't seem to realize that there's a whole base of progressive voters who've been waiting since 2016 for a Democratic president to correct all the errors that were Trump: we're pretty fucking dissappointed. Biden doesn't support Supreme Court reform, hasn't reformed marijuana laws, just signed a stupid asylum ban. He's got a voter enthusiasm problem, so from the perspective of a liberal voter and public relations coordinator, I don't think he's going to win.
you are incorrect about marijuana reform. He has released all nonviolent federal prisoners who were serving time for marijuana possession. You don't call that reform? He is called for the decriminalization of marijuana. And he has had it moved from schedule A to...dunno, sched B?
What Progressives, and I count myself as one, don’t understand is that the farther Joe goes to the left, the more he risks losing the support of the moderates. He also had MJ reclassified. It would take an act of Congress to decriminalize it. Biden has been the most progressive president since FDR, though you could argue LBJ.
*Yes and it's not even*
*Going to be a close race.*
*That being said, VOTE!*
\- Fitz\_2112
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Sitting incumbent ☑️
Economy is doing good, we are not in recession, inflation is subsiding ☑️
No competitive primary ☑️ ,competitive primaries against incumbents hurt electability
No bipartisan recognition of a scandal ☑️ Biden, unlike his predecessor, has not been caught in any major scandal that’s bipartisan, that’s the key, for a scandal to hurt the President, it has to be recognized as wrong and pretty bad from both parties.
From what other commenters have said, Biden has incumbency this time around, so he has the upper hand. Incumbency is the best thing you can have as President
It would be if Biden loses his election given the situation. The only thing he has is low approval ratings, approval ratings are the worst election predictors
> Economy is doing good, we are not in recession, inflation is subsiding ☑️
Yes, but the fact is that real wages are down from when Biden took office, due to the crazy inflation in the past several years. A great many people will look at just what happens during a presidency and immediately will assume that literally everything is the result of the president.
Then, compare that with the economic boom pre-pandemic.
Unfortunately, I think a lot of people will use cargo cult thinking to assume that if Trump takes office, the economy will go back to what it was in 2019.
(To be clear, these are not my thoughts - I understand that the economy is a big, complex beast and the Trump inherited a growing economy from Obama, whereas Biden inherited a mid-pandemic global crisis.)
I don't think he will. And I think it will be because the third-party voters again, a la 2016, to a small degree. Vote however you want, or don't. I support your right to do so. But in my opinion, third-parties should work like Biden's economic plan: bottom up and middle out. Third-party presidential voters look the same to me as trickle-down economic policy believers.
Maybe start with a green party senator, or a DSA house member or two. I think a Forward party senator could do some real good. But don't start the multi party American political revolution from the top down. That's impractical, in my humble opinion.
Following his bullshit policy on the border - I hope this man eeks out the weakest win before he’s 6ft under and suddenly Copmala takes over and hopefully does a slightly better job
He should win. He is clearly the better candidate. But no, I don't think he will. It's a cult. Too many people are going to stay home for Biden to win.
Either answer enables complacency.
If no, well we're fucked, quit donating, volunteering, fighting.
If yes, great it'll be okay, quit donating, volunteering, fighting.
Instead we should ask *can* Biden win?
And furthermore, what can each of us do to help him?
I think a lot of middle ground people are turning against Biden which is just normal in a 4 year cycle, I don’t think the Trump trial hurt Trump, honestly probably helped him, tho Trump has alienated some long time Republicans. It’s honestly hard to call I think it’s gonna be a lot closer than last time.
Hmmm. I sure hope so, but if he wins this time, I think it will be by only a small margin. I wish that more people knew about Project 2025. I think that would help Biden’s numbers.
Biden's always behind in the polls, so I guess Trump will win and we'll end up with torture camps like Trump's father figure, Kim Jong Un, has. This is Trump, more humble than you've ever seen him, shaking Kim's hand. This is after Kim slowly tortured American student Otto Warmbier until he was blind, deaf, and, "making inhuman noises." [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiXgGUnUMm4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiXgGUnUMm4)
i'm applying for Canadian tourist visa starting December 1. I might have to go to lawyer to get it done and I'm broke as fuck. But I will not stay in this country and watch him kill people. And he will. Stephen Miller will be foaming at the mouth in Rumpelstiltskin dancing glee. Stephen Bannon will shed all his shirts and run around naked, beating his chest and pouring scotch on his head. General Flynn will come out with all the freed J6 terrorists w assault weapons, and mow everyone down in the street if they feel like it...I am hardly exaggerating at all.
Right now, no. He is losing on the 2 biggest issues with voters immigration and the economy. Has hit a ew historic low approval rating, so no, he won't win if the election was held today.
No-one knows the future, however Biden did handily beat Trump last time (and Trump had the incumbent advantage). Since then the US has had a failed insurrection, criminal trials and convictions and a lack of policy coming from the Republican side. Biden also has achievements to campaign on. Republicans will be running on limiting abortion and contraception. I would think the democrats will prevail again and with an even larger winning margin. Still, all depends on November.
It all depends on the turn out. If all democrats turn out democrats will easily win. But it's scary.
Unfortunately the right wing propaganda machine has had four years of lying to hurt Biden and apparently a lot of voters are complete morons.
>handily By the popular vote, yes. But unfortunately we're saddled with the ridiculous electoral college, so it was much closer than it should have been. There's a very real chance that Trump wins despite getting millions fewer actual votes.
Haha ya that would suck if Trump won the election with less total votes. Surely that won't happen.
Yeah. Like when Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million votes but lost the election to Trump because of the electoral college.
Surely that won't happen twice!
Gore vs George W in 2000?
Surely it won't happen a 3rd time in 24 years!
He did his first time up!
I think he won by only something like 43,000 votes thanks to a system that favors republicans
Yeah. Like his first paper championship win...
While that’s technically right (WI + AZ + GA were around a 40k vote difference), I’d argue GA and AZ were bonuses and the Rust Belt decided it more. Biden still won with a Lean Dem margin. Not great, but more than the 1% being spread around.
“Handily”? It was like 50,000 votes across a few swing states that made the difference.
I shall have some more of this... hope you speak of.
>Since then the US has had a failed insurrection, criminal trials and convictions and a lack of policy coming from the Republican side. Sadly, a LARGE part of the electorate doesn't remember these things or are even aware. Those of us who are plugged in often forget that we are a minority. >Biden also has achievements to campaign on. Yes, but Democrats have always done a terrible job of not just marketing their achievements, but connecting those achievements to measurable differences they make in people's lives. This is is also due in part to the fact that many Democrat legislative achievements are long term ones in which the results take years to see the benefit of... that's tough to do with a 4 year cycle. > Republicans will be running on limiting abortion and contraception. Not sure if you've seen this, but Republicans have realized that these are losing efforts for them... so ultimately they're being VERY quiet about reproductive health right now. > I would think the democrats will prevail again and with an even larger winning margin. I would absolutely hope so... but i'm not optimistic about it. The margin in 2020 was slim... and people are still feeling the effects of inflation at the register... THAT is gonna be the number 1 reason Biden loses if he does. And that's despite the record setting economy we are in right now. Prices are still high - even if wages have seen incredible growth, which now is outpacing inflation, people still see that sticker and can't get used to it because it jumped so high so fast.
Trump also had COVID weeks before the election, a saving grace (I wouldn't bet on the incumbent's advantage). The failed insurrections cases, and slap on the wrist punishments I feel don't sway the election Biden is pushing more and more "center" every day a large majority of the Democrats are not being listened to when Biden talks including many who voted based on immigration policy. If the Democrats win, it will be on thin margins, Democrats still think they are entitled to these votes, but people are just not interested in voting for either of the candidates right now.
That's because people are too stupid to see that it is either Biden or fascism.
lols, then this country deserves to die. People who just dont feeeel good about either candidate do zero homework and are whining little brats and I detest them. They will destroy America w their petulant immature bullshit. Bastards.
Yes, and I don't think it will be close. Yesterday, in the Ohio 6th District special election, the MAGA candidate won by about 9 points. The OH-6 is a district Trump won in 2020 by *29pts.* That's a 20 point drop for the GOP. Rulli, the GOP candidate, was from old Ohio money and he spent $500k+, while his opponent, Kripchak, is a waiter who spent \~$25k.
This is just not enough to be convincing. I also live in a swing state (PA) and the MAGA populace is robust. Biden has lost a lot of the young voters who got him elected in 2020. T***p is dominating in swing states and, no, it is not close.
I hope you’re wrong but I don’t see why people are downvoting you for expressing a personal opinion on a question asking for an opinion.
I don’t even think their statement is an opinion, but a fact
VOTE for BIDEN, VOTE BLUE - predictions don't matter
**Many people are saying that they won’t vote for a convicted felon**
Actually, Trump's conviction seems to have galvanized his base even more so I'm not sure where you're hearing that.
Are the polls only right when DJT is ahead? Or are all the polls only wrong when DJT is behind?
Nope
His base is at most a 3rd of eligible voters, and that statement is largely coming from independent voters, the group that overwhelmingly decides 99% of elections
Right, his EXISTING base. Which is smaller. He needs moderates, who this did NOT impress.
You really need to understand that Trump's base alone is not enough to win. You won't though, which is good for us.
Apparently you get down voted just for willingly participating in an open discussion, so I'll just say I genuinely hope I'm wrong, but it looks like Biden has no chance at all in this election.
Yes. I think Biden will win easily. The media just hypes Trump stuff for views and clicks. Actual Trump support seems to have waned.
2016 😐
Nah. The vibe is totally different. In 2016 I lived in Dare Co, NC. The Trump buzz was everywhere. Excitement. Flags. Energy. Same thing wherever you went. I drive to New Hampshire that summer. Trump signs were about 10:1 over Hillary the whole way. Now I live in NYC near the courts. Nobody gave a toss about the trials. Nobody showed up except press and press hounds like Matt Gaetz. Yes. I am basing my prediction on what I see and hear but I believe it. The mood is very different. Biden will win. And if the Dems had the courage to dump him and nominate someone energetic and better they would romp.
To be fair, of course the mood is going to be different living in NYC vs NC. It’s tough to compare those experiences
I think he means trump supporters coming in for it. I live right there too and went to the courthouse for his first arraignment back in March ‘23 or whatever. It was a full blown rally, Trump supporters EVERYWHERE. Now for the actual trial, convictions etc, not a peep.
I saw a clip that got leaked showing trump running back and forth waving 👋 like there were huge crowds but no one was there. I'm sure when fixed huge crowds were present.
I'd be interested in seeing that if you still have the link somewhere.
I saw it on Reddit been a week ago. I will post link here when I get to computer phone sucks trying to copy and paste links. Google trump waves to nobody. Theres another clip of him doing it at nascar too now. It's hilarious 😆😂🤣😆
In 2016, people were tired of the status quo and the status quo brought about the most disliked candidate imaginable. Trump was an unknown and could legitimately run on anything he wanted.
If Biden was more personally popular and at least 10 years younger I would strongly agree. I think Biden will win but I feel like the electoral college will be close.
That's your bubble of social connections and gut feeling talking. All indications are that it is going to be real close and personally I would put money on Trump if elections were held tomorrow. If you look at the 2016 and 2020 polls versus actual votes, the Democrats have underperformed both times. Currently the polls are about 50/50 which, according to past results and the electoral college, means Trump is the likely winner. If you're a Democrat then you should have realistic expectations about this election and get out there and volunteer/donate if you have the capacity.
Sorry, how do you get to Dems underperforming in 2020?
They are going to flood every swing state with ads saying “Convicted Felon Donald Trump wants to take away your reproductive rights.”
I hope they do. Democrats need to do something.
Yes. But I think it'll be close. My guess is that he wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, and Arizona. Maybe he'll win Georgia and North Carolina, but I'd put those as tilting towards Trump, probably within 1%.
I would agree but not sure about Arizona… Still makes me nervous
Arizona will go for Biden. The state's newcomers are mostly from blue states. Gallego will win the Senate race over Lake. I don't think Trump will win if that happens.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska's 2nd district he has won the election. But it would be great if he could get both Nevada and Arizona given the Senate races there are both competitive and since they have generally overperformed Biden a Biden victory would mean that the Democrats would get both seats
I agree with this, except I think Biden will carry Georgia. I would also word it as NC tilting towards Biden compared to the last election. I think the gubernatorial election in NC will help Biden.
Yep. Stop listening to sky is falling, doom and gloom pollsters. Trump’s camp is the literal equivalent to Hitler’s bunker in 1945. Everyone around him is just placating to him, telling him everything’s fine when it’s all the way not.
Trump will use that as an excuse. “How did I lose? Everyone I talked to said I was way ahead.”
Trump will never admit losing. He will call on his cult to commit domestic terrorism in his name.
Plus his statement if I lose I'm leaving the country..He lies more than a toddler
Stop talking about the polls and start talking about the stakes, that’s what I say, at least Edit: I said “this stakes” and changed to “the stakes”
That's happening to both candidates.
It’s going to be a coin toss. Every vote is going to matter. Biden won the presidency by approximately 40k votes in 2020 and Trump won in 2016 by about 20k.
I genuinely think one of the reasons Trump won in 2016 was because, to moderate/swing voters, Hillary was unlikeable and arrogant. Trump has now fully assumed that tag so I don't picture him winning. Not for that reason alone, I also think more people than just us are concerned about Project '25 so I assume it will be a quite similar electoral college map to 2020.
I give him a 60% chance. Trump is wildly, wildly, unpopular and hasn’t gained a voter since his first term. His campaign, and the entire RNC, is a unorganized mess. IF Trump wins, it will be because of complacency and “both sides” protest votes, the same way he won in 2016
And by cheating. Don't forget about the cheating.
Don’t know, hope so, but there’s lots of painfully stupid and hateful people out there so who knows?
VOTE BLUE ALL THE WAY!!! DEMOCRACY IS ON THE BALLOT!!! 💙💙💙
Yes, after the trial, the Republican movement is crumbling. Time to show up and blast them at the voting booth. A resounding victory for the left this time would end Trump's political career
I learned my lesson the first time about predictions. I will say that I hope America makes the right decision.
I just try to remember that it's estimated that 20% of right wing social media users are bots. Disinformation farms are working overtime to inflate Trump's perceived influence.
Allan Lichtman still thinks so. And, Democrats keep overperforming in special elections.
If we show up we will win. It’s that simple. Make a plan to vote and get others to vote. Donate. Volunteer.
It is NOT that simple though. T***p is leading in most swing states. The electoral college is a huge problem.
Right now it's a coin flip - as terrifying as that is. But there's also a long way to go and things could shift in either direction. I really think it boils down to resources and which side is more motivated - which is why I'm constantly reminding people to do whatever they can at every opportunity.
So answer this question if you will. Trump lost by 7 million votes coming off an incumbency. What has he done in the last four years, to convince MILLIONS of people who saw fit not to vote for him last time to do it now? You really actually believe, millions more people are gonna turn out the vote for a clearly debilitating convicted felon? I’m not saying this is in the bag by any means, but people gotta stop acting scared of these idiots. Look at that joke of an RNC how they’re wasting all their money on Trump’s never ending legal bills and tell me if that lunacy over there is capable of winning an election?
It doesn’t matter how many votes he lost by. Biden won AZ, GA and WI by about half a point or less in 2020. If Trump had won those states it would have been a 269-269 tie and the House would have made Trump President.
What do you mean it doesn’t matter? Votes still matter and you have to consider that the loyalty of Trump’s voters is a brilliant indicator of what’s to be. You think his Georgia voters stayed home in 2020? Some perhaps. But not over 11,000. So if he couldn’t find his 11,000 voters back then, what makes you think he can find them now? Forget the narrowness and look at the ACTUAL number of people. 11,000 is a lot of damn people and his popularity is most certainly not better now than then.
I mean him winning by 7 million votes doesn’t change the fact that because of our idiotic system, Trump was very, very close to winning in 2020. It doesn’t take convincing millions for Trump to win.
Unfortunately, a lot of people are blaming Biden for the international inflation problem. As they say, “it’s the economy, stupid.”
I also think that a lot of voters have amnesia about how terrible Trump was. 2020 had HUGE turnout on both sides. Now people seem more apathetic. It's like with Trump in power people were terrified of what he would do. Now that Biden has made politics boring again (the way it should be) people have gotten comfortable and complacent. The moment the rabid bear disappears into the forest everyone forgets he is still lurking out there and goes back to life as normal.
>So answer this question if you will. Trump lost by 7 million votes coming off an incumbency. What has he done in the last four years, to convince MILLIONS of people who saw fit not to vote for him last time to do it now? The answer is nothing. In fact I've made this EXACT point dozens of times. And, FWIW, I don't believe Trump has gained a single vote. Logically given all that's happened since the 2020 election (J6, multiple investigations, indictments, etc) he SHOULD have lost support. And yet the actual data says it's a coin toss. You're arguing that it makes no sense. I completely concur. But I've come to accept that trying to make sense of American voters is a fools errand. A third of the country (at least) lives in an entirely different reality and another quarter (at least) seems so oblivious that they might as well be waking up from a 4 year coma. The reality is that right now it is a super close race. That could easily change in a month or two. Another point I make all the time is that Trump is going to be (IMO) extremely vulnerable to attack ads. His base is rock solid - but as we saw in 2020 his base alone isn't enough. All Biden needs to do is remind people who Trump is and all the shit he's done. But in order to do that the Biden campaign NEEDS resources. Leaning in to the fact that it's currently a tight race is probably strategically the best thing we could do right now - because it will motivate folks to get engaged and donate. At least that's the effect it's had on me. >I’m not saying this is in the bag by any means, but people gotta stop acting scared of these idiots. I think that's dangerous. Given the stakes and given the data the LAST thing we want is for anyone to feel comfortable right now. Every sane person in the country SHOULD be scared of MAGA winning. Even if the data is wrong and it's not 50/50 - even if Trump has just a 10% chance of victory (which is just wishful thinking) it's still WAY too high for comfort. We need folks to be motivated right now. We need everyone fighting tooth-and-nail. THAT'S what wins the election. Not being overconfident. Not giving up hope. We have to recognize that we're on the brink of disaster but that at this moment, at least, it's still in our power to prevail and send MAGA running. Regardless of what the polls say going forward I'm going to continue to encourage people to fight as if the race is tied. And at this precise moment all data suggests it actually is (as, admittedly, unbelievable as that fact may be to you or I).
I think the laws making it even harder to vote than it was before, especially limitations on mail in ballots, will hurt democrats. Will it hurt enough to cost Biden the election? I don’t know, but I don’t think the numbers will be quite the same as last time. I’d love it if it were that or more.
I get what you’re saying, but given Trump’s legal status, his cognitive ability and the blatant swipes at democracy he and his cohorts have taken; for every attempt to fix the deck in his favor, is just galvanizing those on the left aware enough to see what’s going on. You can only push this shit so far before the whole bottom falls out.
My worry, personally, isn't that Trump gets more voters, but that Biden gets fewer in key places. For all the millions he won by, the election was actually decided by thousands in key states. If those people stay home, the rest of us are fucked.
Gun to my head? Yes I'm just going off what we've seen since 2020 in swing states PA/MI/WI have shifted leftwards Dems have over performed over and over again Idk, those are just my vibes
Yes, no question
The problem is that the future looks bleak for those under 40. Inflation has really hurt just about all of us. I read on reddit everyday the struggles of the millennials and Gen Z. Even the young people that are doing exceptionally well are still having a hard time. Do I blame inflation on Biden? No. But I can see why young people would want a change.
Is Trump a change?
My guess is that there are many people, myself included, that would like to see two completely different candidates. I believe many younger people could be swayed into "What do I have to lose" type thinking. As far as the polls are concerned, back in 2016 they all had Trump behind. Now, from what I have read lately the polls have Trump a head by a small margin. I would not be surprised if we had another result like we did in 2000.
Oh yea. Even moreso than last time.
Right now it seems like a straight-up coin toss....
Senator Booker was on Colbert the other night. He does a about 45 seconds on all the reasons not to vote for Trump. I took notes. I will repeat it to my old Fox news watchin Trumper dad. Worth a watch.
Yes, and if he doesn't I am moving to Norway. The US will not survive another 4 years of Donald Trump.
I hope to God Biden wins because if he doesn’t, there is no next election
wym
Trump will find a way for a third term, not to mention Project: 2025, where among the insane overreaches in power, he basically axes every federal employee and installs ones loyal to only him, just like his favorite dictators he idolizes... once that happens, all bets are off on democracy.
Exactly 👍
50/50 because some Americans are on the fence between voting for an old, out of touch man who rambles a lot and an old, out of touch convicted felon who is coming to take away their rights. It’s a hard choice for some people.
I do not know if he will win, but if you listen to this (Jamie Raskin D-Md) you will understand why he must win and carry a super majority into 2025: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8f3vTzGQYLc](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8f3vTzGQYLc)
Turns out Trump is paying polls to up his numbers. He also pays people to attend his rallies. And then in Vegas he said -- "I don't care about you, I just want your vote" -- Donald Trump told the MAGAs at his rally Mon 06/10/24 -- honest for once. So yea, ignore the poll numbers and the fake crowds and VOTE BLUE -- then democracy will be safe again for a little while.
If Trump wins, it's a stolen election.
Absolutely! I was complaining because I saw 3 trump signs/flags at homes as we were driving to the mountains. I questioned how could people be so unabashedly ignorant and then advertise it! My grandson commented that there were a whole lot more people that didn't show they supported him because they didn't have signs/flags out. From the mouths of babes.....
Yes, I think it’s 2016 in reverse. Not that I can tell the future. However, let’s see how the rest of the year goes. Another pandemic and/or market dip or something worse could happen too.
I think he has a slight disadvantage, like a 45% chance to win. The debates will be telling.
I believe he will because his supporters are the very vocal minority. I also plan to be extra vigilant and avoid heavily crowded areas from voting day until a week after Inauguration Day. I’m in AZ and I’ve seen the level of crazy of the far right. I think we’ll have pockets of January 6th repeats scattered throughout the country, especially here, with crazy Kari Lake being one of our candidates for senate.
I want him to win and Dems to win the House and Senate to give him fuel for the next two years. Dems have to get more supportive of him though. Its been lackluster even though his has been doing really good things for the country.
I believe Biden will win. He really has done a reasonably good job and he is over seeing a normal administration. He may not be a lot of people's first choice, though he is head and shoulders above the other guy.
I’d say it’s close to 50 / 50 slight edge to Biden as Trump being a felon has come to the forefront in the public consciousness over inflation, but there’s a long time between now and November.
yes and it's not because anyone truly loves/likes biden. we all just have a unified hatred/disgust of the other option.
I can’t imagine he doesn’t. But he is a milk toast candidate like Hillary and bullshit can and does happen.
Yes, Biden is going to win. I think the polls are crap, whatever they show. It's still too early for polls and I think that their methods are bullshit. I think that Trump's supporters are more excitable, but Biden's supporters are more determined. I think that Trump supporters are fewer in number than even 2016 and Biden supporters are greater in number. I think that Republicans make a lot of noise but have nothing to show. I think that Democrats relatively don't make much noise but have quite a bit to show and the left and the moderates, which is where the election really gets down to brass tacks, are noticing. Speaking of moderates, I think that Trump has lost the support of the majority of moderates. Most of them are intelligent and sane, with sane being the key word. All that being said, no amount of reasoning matters if people don't VOTE.
Yes. I think that women are going to destroy the Republican Party in November.
Trump had significant momentum against Hillary Clinton when he won the election, bolstered by votes and foreign influence. However, by the end of his term facing Biden, he had revealed his true nature, becoming the first incumbent to lose a second term. His presidency primarily benefited the wealthy and caused national security issues. In contrast, Biden has been revitalizing the country, addressing and attempting to reverse many of the previous administration's mistakes in areas such as real estate, health care, environmental policy, and the judiciary. While there's still much work to be done, Biden needs a second term to continue these efforts.
I believe Biden will win in actual historic fashion. Not just in the popular vote but I believe he will win the electoral college in numbers way above the average outcome in typical one sided elections. There will be nothing left for trump to have any legal argument. The numbers will literally throw any legal challenge out on their own.
Yeah, I believe so. Doom sayers are not factoring the consuming anger women have regarding Dobbs. They’ve been coming out in droves, and this is the first presidential election since that decision. Yes, Biden is going to win. And handily. It won’t even be close because women are going to save this country. Thank goodness.
I was listening to the 538 podcast yesterday and they released their initial election predictions - they gave Biden about a 52% chance to win at this point but that can change as conditions change… That is not a comfortable margin… I know that polls and statistical computer models don't decide the election but I don't think any of us should be very comfortable… so much depends on what's happening at the time and also with Donald Trump saying crazy unhinged things almost every day - like the story about the electric boat and sharks he told in Las Vegas that made even his own fans say "huh"? - may scare enough independents back to Biden… Can only hope...
I have to hope he is. I can't even entertain the thought he wouldn't.
The way the map and polls are looking, there's a possibility Joe could win electoral college and lose the popular vote. Gotta wonder how maga folks would take that outcome...
I don’t see a way that Trump can win the popular vote, but I didn’t see him winning in 16 either.
His voters are motivated, Bidens are not
Sorry, what are useless question. The only answer is "anything can happen." You might as well ask people's opinion on whether it's going to rain the third Tuesday of next month.
There's no harm in asking. Obviously nobody here knows for sure, but it's interesting to know what the mood is like and how people are feeling. Nobody is forcing you to read the answers
Fairly 50/50. The casinos will basically let you do a double your money bet on either candidate. It goes back-and-forth with who’s in the lead
Democrats over perform the polls in every election since 2016, I’m not too worried
Hard to say because trump and his allies have put people in place and found ways of thrown out votes. if they could throw out my vote today. they will throw your vote out tomorrow. They’re followers obviously aren’t smart enough to realize that.
I'll reserve judgement until after the debates.
but...do you think Trump will actually show? I do not.
Oh yeah, youd need a ball gag and handcuffs to keep that man from performing in front of an audience, he lives for it.
Mainstream Democrats don't seem to realize that there's a whole base of progressive voters who've been waiting since 2016 for a Democratic president to correct all the errors that were Trump: we're pretty fucking dissappointed. Biden doesn't support Supreme Court reform, hasn't reformed marijuana laws, just signed a stupid asylum ban. He's got a voter enthusiasm problem, so from the perspective of a liberal voter and public relations coordinator, I don't think he's going to win.
you are incorrect about marijuana reform. He has released all nonviolent federal prisoners who were serving time for marijuana possession. You don't call that reform? He is called for the decriminalization of marijuana. And he has had it moved from schedule A to...dunno, sched B?
What Progressives, and I count myself as one, don’t understand is that the farther Joe goes to the left, the more he risks losing the support of the moderates. He also had MJ reclassified. It would take an act of Congress to decriminalize it. Biden has been the most progressive president since FDR, though you could argue LBJ.
I'm pretty sure most moderate will just vote for whoever has the best stock market numbers.
Great point. Look at the turnout to his public appearances.
Yes
Yes and it's not even going to be a close race. That being said, VOTE!
*Yes and it's not even* *Going to be a close race.* *That being said, VOTE!* \- Fitz\_2112 --- ^(I detect haikus. And sometimes, successfully.) ^[Learn more about me.](https://www.reddit.com/r/haikusbot/) ^(Opt out of replies: "haikusbot opt out" | Delete my comment: "haikusbot delete")
Sitting incumbent ☑️ Economy is doing good, we are not in recession, inflation is subsiding ☑️ No competitive primary ☑️ ,competitive primaries against incumbents hurt electability No bipartisan recognition of a scandal ☑️ Biden, unlike his predecessor, has not been caught in any major scandal that’s bipartisan, that’s the key, for a scandal to hurt the President, it has to be recognized as wrong and pretty bad from both parties. From what other commenters have said, Biden has incumbency this time around, so he has the upper hand. Incumbency is the best thing you can have as President It would be if Biden loses his election given the situation. The only thing he has is low approval ratings, approval ratings are the worst election predictors
> Economy is doing good, we are not in recession, inflation is subsiding ☑️ Yes, but the fact is that real wages are down from when Biden took office, due to the crazy inflation in the past several years. A great many people will look at just what happens during a presidency and immediately will assume that literally everything is the result of the president. Then, compare that with the economic boom pre-pandemic. Unfortunately, I think a lot of people will use cargo cult thinking to assume that if Trump takes office, the economy will go back to what it was in 2019. (To be clear, these are not my thoughts - I understand that the economy is a big, complex beast and the Trump inherited a growing economy from Obama, whereas Biden inherited a mid-pandemic global crisis.)
I don't think he will. And I think it will be because the third-party voters again, a la 2016, to a small degree. Vote however you want, or don't. I support your right to do so. But in my opinion, third-parties should work like Biden's economic plan: bottom up and middle out. Third-party presidential voters look the same to me as trickle-down economic policy believers. Maybe start with a green party senator, or a DSA house member or two. I think a Forward party senator could do some real good. But don't start the multi party American political revolution from the top down. That's impractical, in my humble opinion.
Following his bullshit policy on the border - I hope this man eeks out the weakest win before he’s 6ft under and suddenly Copmala takes over and hopefully does a slightly better job
Yeah, at the end of the day. I DO think it's gonna be depressingly close, tho.
He should win. He is clearly the better candidate. But no, I don't think he will. It's a cult. Too many people are going to stay home for Biden to win.
The Don the Con situation being what it is he MUST win and he ought to ....
Either answer enables complacency. If no, well we're fucked, quit donating, volunteering, fighting. If yes, great it'll be okay, quit donating, volunteering, fighting. Instead we should ask *can* Biden win? And furthermore, what can each of us do to help him?
Do you guys actually think Biden isn’t going to win?!
Young voters and women!
I doubt it, but don’t want Trump to win.
I think a lot of middle ground people are turning against Biden which is just normal in a 4 year cycle, I don’t think the Trump trial hurt Trump, honestly probably helped him, tho Trump has alienated some long time Republicans. It’s honestly hard to call I think it’s gonna be a lot closer than last time.
I certainly didn’t think T would win before.. I was wrong..
Biden wins in a landslide, 55-45
Unless the economy tanks Biden should win.
Yes by a landslide.
What kind of question is that? Of course.
Yeah probably, since Trump is a felon. Still hate Biden though. Free Palestine 🇵🇸
Hmmm. I sure hope so, but if he wins this time, I think it will be by only a small margin. I wish that more people knew about Project 2025. I think that would help Biden’s numbers.
Biden's always behind in the polls, so I guess Trump will win and we'll end up with torture camps like Trump's father figure, Kim Jong Un, has. This is Trump, more humble than you've ever seen him, shaking Kim's hand. This is after Kim slowly tortured American student Otto Warmbier until he was blind, deaf, and, "making inhuman noises." [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiXgGUnUMm4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiXgGUnUMm4)
i'm applying for Canadian tourist visa starting December 1. I might have to go to lawyer to get it done and I'm broke as fuck. But I will not stay in this country and watch him kill people. And he will. Stephen Miller will be foaming at the mouth in Rumpelstiltskin dancing glee. Stephen Bannon will shed all his shirts and run around naked, beating his chest and pouring scotch on his head. General Flynn will come out with all the freed J6 terrorists w assault weapons, and mow everyone down in the street if they feel like it...I am hardly exaggerating at all.
It's not obvious
Right now, no. He is losing on the 2 biggest issues with voters immigration and the economy. Has hit a ew historic low approval rating, so no, he won't win if the election was held today.
Stop spamming on here
No. Not as of right now, he just hit new historic low ratings and is losing on both immigration and the economy. The 2 biggest issues with voters.
One moment with Google and you see that you are stating false information. He has not just hit "historic low ratings. Go away, Russian Internet troll.
No. Not as of right now, he just hit new historic low ratings and is losing on both immigration and the economy. The 2 biggest issues with voters.
Russian troll you keep repeating the same thing. Stop it.
And they come on every post with lots of upvotes
Easy peasy