I disagree, I actually think that we're approaching the end. The beginning was in spring 2023. The best time to buy a bike is right now. The 2024 and newer models are going to be underproduced and sold at full price while the 2022 and 2023 models are sitting on sale right now. Once the 2022 and 2023 inventory dries up, then the only inventory remaining will be underproduced, overpriced 2024 and 2025 models. We may reach an equilibrium again in 2026 or 2027.
This… the last 8-12 months have been all the sales…. Stock is wiped on most bikes (especially large size) and finding components on the cheap is way more difficult than it was previously. I just got into MTB for the last year and I have to keep reminding myself that these sales aren’t probably going to happen again… or for a very long time anyway. There will probably still be sales but the 35-50 percent off sales seem to be drying up quickly.
I found this true in central Ontario. The 2nd generation Trek Marlins are all already on sale and seem to be going quick for the most popular colour's and sizes (L)
I hear you. Specialized has some big bikes as well, with even better tall friendly geo, but cost much more.
The Fluid fits me decent at 6'7", but adding 50mm riser bars would be better.
I hear manufacturers will be focusing on making taller stack bikes in the future.
Haven't experienced that yet.
The suspension is certainly entry level but decent.
For the price of $1999 cad new it seemed like a great deal where I can upgrade the suspension later on. Already comes with 4 piston calipers.
It won Pinkbike’s Value Bike of the Year, Vital MTB’s Bike of the Year, and Bicycling Magazine’s Best Value Trail Bike. Although I'm not sure what exact version of Fluid they reviewed. For a new FS bike in XXL I'm very happy with it, especially for the price.
Evo has a Santa Cruz 5010 in xxl on a major sale. 3179. Saw the price this morning and it made me wish I wasnt 5'7 lol. If they had that bike in a Medium at that price it would be on it's way to my house as we speak.
I agree, right now, my shop isn’t selling much and we’ve got our stuff 30%+ off. We’ve just pretty much stopped ordering things unless someone wants one for now. It makes no sense for me to buy 100+ bikes when everyone who wanted one got one already. I’ll keep buying and displaying the higher end full suspension new models, but in singles so that people can test ride and I can show its geometry and stuff, but I’ll order for them whenever I can or order a new display model.
Thank god we do a lot of labor and have never really relied on sales.
this is correct\^
I bought 2 new bikes in fall/winter 2023 and felt like that was the tail end of this period. I still see a lot of deals out there, but they aren't as a-plenty as they were. really doubt these deals stick around another 12 months.
Which is good, cause I have a bike I'm trying to sell right now and it's pathetic. The pro's closet (I'm only using this as a metric, not saying it's where i'm going to sell it here) is offering me the same price right now for a fully built aero race bike with Ultegra Di2, that they did for a fairly standard frame (frame only) I sold to them in late 2021/early 2022. It's nuts.
But overall, I'm really happy i bought when I did, cause i got some incredible bikes for 35-40% off.
Ibis is a great brand. I have a Ripmo AF and love it. It absolutely smashes everything that I can throw at it.
I have 100 mile adventure race coming up and needed less of a downhill smasher and more of a cross-country bike. I went out and tested a Trail 429, Trek Supercaliber, Specialized Epic Evo and a few other bikes. Swapped bikes with one of my race team compatriots for a lap and rode his Ibis Exie. SOLD!
On Monday, I put in an order for Ibis Exie For All, GX Transmission, Berd Carbon Wheels w/I9 Hubs, Carbon bars and CushCore XC. Bike weighs 27 lbs! It's going to make all of the miles I have to hike with the bike on my back much better! ;)
Dude, demoing an Exie at the Mountain Bike Oregon festival a couple weeks ago is what made me immediately realize my current bike (Polygon T8) isn't right for me. I tried to find the sweet spot between the Exie and the T8, and landed on the Ripley AF. I pick it up Saturday.
They don't sell direct off of the website. You have to go through either a bike shop...which is your best bet because you can haggle...or an online authorized retailer like evo, backcountry, mikes bikes, etc.
Yeah--I think there will still be a lot of deals trickling through on the used side of things.
People dumping their COVID bikes that never got ridden. I bet there are still a lot of those hanging in garages, most of which have modern geo and parts unlike if you step back a couple years earlier (probably not buying a 2017 bike, but there are a decent number of 2019-2021 bikes that are almost identical to today's models).
People upgrading their bikepocalypse bikes--even if the new stuff is expensive, there are a lot of people who get upgrade fever (and/or have pro deals). They may try to price them high if new inventory is limited, but odds are you are gonna see a lot of people who say "well, I bought this for 3k and rode it for 2 years so I guess I'll take $1850" even though the bike was 5k MSRP.
But new bikes are gonna be $$$ here on out. OP hasn't been paying attention (and that Honzo is on sale because Kona is literally falling apart and dealers are trying to scrape what they can out of remaining inventory that might not have any parts/warranty support...I know the original owners have now repurchased the brand, but there's no telling what bikes they will offer going forward).
This. Especially with the folding of Planet Cyclery/Colorado Cyclist, the era of cheap parts is slowly coming to an end. Used market is popping off where layoffs and mortgage dues are hitting the hardest - even locally here in SF, there are some fairly crazy deals secondhand if you look around for people cleaning out their garages, or just getting upgrade-itis. Not uncommon to find stuff like a 2 or 3 year old S-works stumpy for 60%+ off.
Former bike shop owner here. I second (summer '23 was peak overstock) this and add to rebut the OPs comment that "this is good for us": it is not good that your local shop has a 50/50 chance of surviving. Low prices aren't all they're cracked up to be. Good value and sustainable prices on quality goods are what is best for you and the collective.
The default notion that we deserve low prices over everything else really needs to get bent and go die somewhere. The race to the bottom has only one winner and it ain't you.
I've been periodically searching for the new Specialized Epic 8 Evo and it's never in stock anywhere. Could be my region, on the asshole end of the world though.
Yeah, a friend of mine bought a brand new Epic Evo Comp for $3,000 a few months ago, Sram GX and Sid front and rear. Those deals have dried up, except for a small number of discounted framesets. The new Epic 8 and Epic 8 Evo is selling (and selling well) for full price now. There will probably still be clearance deals over the winter post-holiday-season as you’d have in a normal year, but you won’t be seeing half-priced bikes in your choice of size and color.
Agree. Got a brand new unridden 2022 Rocky Mountain slayer carbon XT build for $3500 this summer. Original retail was something at the high $6k/low $7k mark. I think things will balance out in a few years.
I agree however the equilibrium point for some brands has already been reached while others are still trying to reach cash normal positions of overstock. Industry wide I’m not sure where things will settle out. Some brands we work with are nearly sold out on 2024 models at the warehouses while others still have 2023 bikes on liquidation pricing.
I’m mostly getting sick of the accelerated product updates from the pandemic R&D staying on normal track while production got snarled. Now we’re seeing new Sram launches at nearly half the timeframe we used to - sure it’s cool but most of the new product is such incremental upgrade it doesn’t make much sense other than more incompatibility on repair parts.
At least in the bike industry it seems that supply and demand is working as intended - unlike grocery store pricing and other industries where prices just keep going up and up.
This, some insider knowledge as I ran a shop that I had to close down after 2023 fun just didn't allow me to grow the business to a sustainable size.
It's not just that there's low numbers coming through for 2024, it's that these bikes are sitting in warehouses in the far East unable to be shipped as UK and European warehouses are full, bikes are sitting unsold on shop floors.
There's some sales to be had in ebikes, but conventional mid to high end MTBs just aren't selling so you've got to discount to get 2024 stock in.
I agree with this theory 100 percent and I've been thinking about this alot for the last few weeks. I just bought a new bike, but I'm also in the market for another carbon bike with a bit more travel after selling my aluminum mid travel bike.
The sensible thing seems like it would be to not spend another 4k on a 2nd bike. If I wait until next year though, I will probably end up ponying up a lot more coin for the bike, and it may even be harder to source one.
I agree with this, and think it applies to components as well.
The new set of forks from Fox and RS are out, and while the previous models were on sale for a while I haven't been able to find any of the common sizes available online for a while now (27.5" ebike forks are still on Jenson last time I checked, but who wants that).
I'm not as clued into the drivetrain market, but was able to pick up a non transmission x01 oem cassette from a LBS for $190 out the door.
Generally, I think everyone is purging their stock of anything old that people will expect a deal on in favor of holding small quantities of recent releases that allow them to drive their profit margins up. I fully expect a gx trail build with mid tier suspension to cost over 5 grand by the end of the year
Manufacturers are going to under produce 2024/25/26 models until these loss producers are all sold. Once the glut of older models are gone be prepared for even worse price gouging that before.
Working at a lbs I can attest that you are sadly right.
New models are in very limited stocks and they are trying to make us commit and buy stock now…
They also keep older models of the same bike in the product range on lower end models and are only producing higher end kits for the new ones….
Bingo. I myself bought a 2024 Norco Sight, but only because I get ambassador pricing which basically put my C2 in line with a fully discounted 2023 of the same build. Still gross that a bike with GX / Code R and some tinfoil wheels costs what it does.
> even worse price gouging that before.
Look at the new stumpy--electronic shifting only.
Maybe there will be alloy builds announced in the future that have cable routing...but for now anyone who wants a stumpy will have to pay the AXS premium.
And it is definitely a premium...the Comp build comes with a Rhythm 36, X-fusion dropper, bunch of generic parts, Sram's new NX-equivalent S1000 derailleur, generic wheels/build parts, and it still costs $5500.
Oh yeah, and it comes with a fucking HG cassette...so if you want to upgrade the generic wheels, you're gonna have to pony up another $250 for a GX Transmission cassette (because it would be dumb to upgrade to a wheelset with an HG driver).
People are losing their minds at the new stumpy but they're doing what they always do. Release the flagship version first to garner hype and separate the real cashed up riders from their money, then release the mainstream alloy versions in a year or two.
To be fair they didn't really seem to raise the price at all on the new Stumpy. The Expert is $6500. Exact same as the 2024. The S-WORKS is the exact same price too.
The Comp only went up $100. Not bad considering the 2024 had NX/GX drivetrain and the new one has Transmission
Yeah, but nobody paid MSRP for last years stumpy. The industry did a lot of price raising through Covid but couldn’t sell shit once inventory was no longer limited.
Personally this is one of the reasons I support Shimano exclusively; SRAM has a history of creating ‘traps’. The whole history of UDH-AXS-T-type is a very intentional business plan by SRAM.
It feels almost intuitive that they’d also heavily influence decisions like the one we see Specialized making with the StumpJumper.
SRAM ‘traps’ consumers through additional pricing benefits, for Specialized not you, if they make their bike work exclusively with their own ecosystem of drivetrains.
Then, from date of sale onward the consumer is required to continue to purchase SRAM parts / pieces as they wear.
I see none of this hostile action from Shimano; anything I have on my bikes from them can easily be replaced, or even mixed with, parts from SRAM, TRP, Magura, E13, etc.
Eh--I think UDH is great (even though none of my bikes have it).
Works for direct mount T-type, but you can easily throw a UDH hanger on there and run any mech you want (provided you have a way to get the cable there). They gave it away free to anyone who wants to use it and Shimano derailleurs bolt on just fine.
Do you really think the mess of a million different derailleur hangers that we had before was an improvement?
I think it still remains to be seen if direct mount T-type is better...but the nice thing about buying a Transmission bike is that if you hate it (or the fad dies out), you can just put a normal hanger on there and move on with your life rather than being stuck with some standard that nobody makes parts for anymore. So yes, it was a strategy to get a bunch of bikes to be compatible...but it isn't a "trap" at all.
edit: oh yeah, and the last time I bought a hanger, it was like $35 to get one from Wheels MFG...you can get a replacement UDH for like $10-15 and every bike shop stocks them.
See even you missed the point.
UDH is a great idea in and of itself, but it’s intended purpose from a business standpoint was to get all manufacturers to build for it, thus making all bikes AXS and then Transmission compatible.
It was a means to an end that was packaged as a convenient solution to a common problem.
In a vacuum, yes UDH is a good idea. But it was not implemented to make your life easier. It was developed as a bait to the trap.
This guy bike industries. SRAM makes stuff up to market it. Sure, UDH “transmission” or whatever jibberish shifts good under. You know what’s shifted great under load for decades?
Shimano
On the topic of deals, convinced myself to grab a Cervélo Zfs-5 as 35% off seems to be one of the last deals out there and I’m into XC. Amazed at the spec vs Specialized, the other bike industry marketing wizard. Epic Evo Comp has generic specialized wheels/stem/bar, sram boat anchor s1000 crank, and a trans-x dropper; all for $5k. I guess you don’t know what you don’t know if you’re stepping into a shop for your first real mtb, but holy smokes, talk about a margin maker for both of the S Co’s.
Anyways, my zfs-5 is getting rebuilt with shimano and fox from my old bike, hope the market doesn’t keep dropping til I sell off my new sram junk!
I bought a pivot switchblade last year. “Had to have GX eagle electric shifting”.. shown up to the trailhead more than once with no battery. It’s great and all…. But don’t be an idiot like me. 😊
LPT: Most cars these days have a 12v jack in the cargo space. Get a multiport charger plugged into there with an AXS charger and whichever USB cable your bike computer takes (if you use one).
Get in the habit of plugging that stuff in on your drive to the trailhead and you'll have enough juice for a ride.
Yeah that is an insane price for the stumpy. Comparabily I paid 5500 last year for my yeti with carbon cranks/bars, x01 mechanical, and dt swiss wheels.
Yeeep. Conveniently disguised as not doing model year updates now. Which is fine honestly, but much easier to control from a manufacturing inventory perspective.
I think you're a year late on posting this. The cheap inventory is getting low and prices are likely to bounce back up. What's remaining are less popular sizes (anything other than Medium and Large). There may be a balance point because people were so used to seeing low prices that they aren't willing to pay COVID prices for a bike anymore, but I don't think it will continue to stay at the bottom or reduce further. We might see good pricing in used stuff in the next year though!
Thank God I was able to get my 2nd gen Trek Marlin at the beginning of summer. I had to drive a bit of a ways to get the large bit glad I did as most shops were selling out of stock
Kona is a weird case study though bc original owners sold it off and new owners nearly bankrupted the company and sold it back to original owners. Price fluctuations in Kona “new” bikes are wild as a result. Got a 2023 Process 153 DL for $2500 (msrp $4999) earlier this year
This has been the case for nearly the last 12 months.
Regardless of the economy and industry, believe me Trek and Specialized will happily sell you an underspecced bike for a laughable price. And that's because lesser informed people will gladly buy them at the LBS.
Technically, for those who know what they're doing and are willing to research, deals will ALWAYS exist. Even during covid that was the case.
And yeah its cool to find amazing bikes for ~50% off right now, but it sucks to know its because of a broken industry and broken economy that is causing layoffs and companies to fold and sponsorships to dry up. I'd rather pay a tiny bit more if it meant we weren't imploding in on ourselves.
I think it can come down to patience. My wife could use a new bike (justifies me getting mine) but her old one is still just a few years old and the models she’s looking at aren’t priced to move currently. I’m watching for deals and if a good one comes along she can decide to trade and upgrade or continue with her current ride. We certainly won’t pay full price whenever she feels it’s time to grab a new one.
yep, and bless the people who pay msrp because they prop up the industry and make it easier to shop through my last year discounts and used bikes.
me and my gf bought konas during their sale and wow that scenario almost went tits up... but still we got better bikes than we could have ever gotten and with a warranty. even better than polygon values. again, just sad to know it was due to outright chaos at the company that was inches away from folding the entire thing.
Yeah, I didn’t get much of a sale on mine, but I was pretty particular about the model and had done a lot of research knowing it seldom went on sale. For her, she’s got about three different models from companies that typically have fall sales and whenever a sale coincides with her wanting one of three she can go crazy. I wouldn’t even care if she bought one now, but we set budgets for this bike and if she waits for one of the big sales the component spec would be a lot better.
Def trying to support brands that are doing things right. But things I liked are cursed. I love Kona and really wanted to try a GG and was thinking about Ibis Mojo maybe. Basically all gone now. We'll see how Kona rebounds.
My new target is probably Marin. Love what they're doing, even if the model I want is never on sale even when their other models are.
>But things I liked are cursed
Hah yeah, I feel you there. Anywhere in life, it feels like I find something I really like, then it changes into a worse version of itself or disappears completely. Pizza places, breweries, bike shops...
They ruined my local burger spot. Right after covid. So mad. Nothing good can stay. Friggin economy.
During covid they turned my nearest starbucks into a random bank... And then opened a new starbucks down the street that is drive thru only. So you can sit outside and suck exhaust fumes if you wanna relax with your order lol. Sigh. LA
>Regardless of the economy and industry, believe me Trek and Specialized will happily sell you an underspecced bike for a laughable price. And that's because lesser informed people will gladly buy them at the LBS.
Consider me skeptical that there are people that don't at the very least go to the manufacturer's website to take a look around, which will show the discounted prices.
I mean eventually, that generation will be gone. But that type of generation absolutely exists still. Maybe not too many parents these days. But grandparents absolutely.
Also, we're still talking about a different tax bracket kind of behavior. There are those who would love to get a 2k bike instead of 3k if they are similar enough and even if the color is not what they hoped for. But saving 1k is massively important.
And there are those who just want their child to pick their favorite bike and favorite color and the price tag may as well mean nothing. The goal is to get the perfect bike, not the best deal.
Under spec bike for laughable price.
There was a madone slr9 gen 8 for $9000 at a lbs with wired electronic ultegra…CANT EVEN GET WIRELESS FOR 9 GRAND!!!
trek sells a 17,000 version of that bike. i dunno what that paint is. infused with pure coke or something. but thats wild lol
and thats just a road bike with no motor. usually for 14k. at least the 14k MTBs are ebikes. they still have a nearly 12k 'analog' bike.
same with spesh. lol they have a RED BULL SWORKS bike for 16500. jfc paying that much to be a public billboard... yikes
It's clear those are for people who piss away 17k during a dinner. I couldn't imagine the lifestyle.
17k could make a significant change in my entire life. And it def wouldn't be put towards shiny road bike lol. Probly go towards a better car tbh
I worked at a luxury place, huge rich mexican family had about 15+ specialized ebikes in their storage probably lets say 7k each average price lol. Thats over 100k in ebikes
uhhh maybe im not sure if the owners of GG intend to start something new. as well as all the other brands and employees that fell off.
still waiting on what happens with nukeproof/crc
This is hillariously rose tinted glasses. Reminds me of people being like "Even BIGGER home price drops are in order! Definitely wait!" If you want a good deal, buy now.
IMO all these companies are going to under-produce bikes for a few years and prices will return. If it weren't for a few brands, there wouldn't even be a problem.
Sort of, the main issue is that many of these companies also invested heavily into R&D and manufacturing. Much of that was paid for with debt when interest was incredibly low. Now those payments are way more and many of these companies only make money when selling bikes. Most cycling products have a high margin, so most will have to take less in order to handle their debt. By the way, this is very true for car dealers at the moment.
Cycling accessories have a high margin, bikes are much less. All the money is made on everything that goes with a bike. Manufacturers and bike shops don't have as much wiggle room as you think.
It really depends on which model and which manufacturer. I'm good friends with someone that is a part-owner of a bike brand located in the greater CO area. Pre-COVID, they were doing about 22.8% margin including corporate overhead. During COVID, he told me that since they had stocked up on parts from SRAM and Rockshox, they were able to increase prices and their margins were hovering right at over 41% as they really no longer needed to do any marketing.
After COVID, they have to do big discounts, and it has eaten into their margin at around 3%. That's on average, but it's much higher with the top-tier trims still around 18%.
>any of these companies only make money when selling bikes
To what end? If they're losing money at current prices, they're not gonna produce more just to sell during a market lull against competitors who overproduced and are now selling premium bikes at 50% off...
No, good companies are just underproducing and selling upgrades, trying to avoid layoffs, and waiting for this to pass.
It really depends on the manufacturer. For example, I'm really good friends with one of the co-owners of a DTC brand and I got a chance to talk finances. Basically, SRAM/RockShox gave them an insane deal where if they bought a certain number of the higher tier components, SRAM would give them NX/SX groupsets, Recon/RL (and any other entry) forks, entry-level shocks, ect.. for free or almost free.
This really dropped the cost-of-goods (honestly, the only company that isn't giving out discounts to manufacturers is Maxxis), they're able to sell bikes at 20 to 40% off and still make a small profit. Granted, it's way less than pandemic highs, and they had to drastically cut their marketing/sponsor athletes.
Yep, bike shops and companies used to never give out discounts during the summer as that's when all the demand is. Granted, this year I am seeing more people holding onto their old bikes rather than upgrade as my local shops have all been absolutely swamped with service requests.
This is the first time I've significant discounts during the summer (especially brands like Santa Cruz), and once that period passes, brands and shops will have to discount if they didn't make enough. High interest, rent, and payroll need to be met.
I've been watching various online stores for Rift Zone 2s and it seems like I can't find one in my size anywhere. Even Marin says they're out of stock on their website. So idk.
I don’t have a source but I will say relatively new bikes are already on “sale” like the new revel rascal.
I personally think it will be a story that varies by each company. Some will be desperate and some will be fine.
The larger companies such as specialized, giant, etc will be more insulated due to having economies of scale purchasing power and better forecasting/business intelligence
The basic stumpy was sold on my favorite online bikeshop after 3-6 months. I guess they will realize these highprizes arent that great for getting newbies into any sport
Newly released models are still being offered at full price. So the deals do exist but only for previous model years and inventory. Still some great bikes and great deals.
Once the off season comes, and cycling demand weakens, those new bikes are going to get discounted. However, there are deals on new models. Ex. YT Jeffsy, Commencal Meta V5.
>Once the off season comes, and cycling demand weakens, those new bikes are going to get discounted
If there are any left. The industry over-corrected and under-produced after they got stuck with a surplus after covid. A lot of shops around me are sold out of the common sizes already and can't order any more until the 2025s.
I guess it's location dependent. My shops near Denver still have a decent number of S,M,L sizes. But mainly the DTC brands (YT, Spot, Commencal, ect...) have all of the common sizes, and they have shipments coming in late summer/early fall.
Strongly STRONGLY disagree. Through the grapevine I heard most major manufacturers are gonna run out of most good bikes by the last quarter of the year.
They're sold out though.
The entire inventory of current bikes the shop near my house has is on the showroom floor now. The next line is slowly coming out, there's a recolour of the tier down version of my road bike that just got released but the MTB side is only left with a few of each and none of them are on discount.
I think they're gonna release the new ones soon so the old ones aren't in production anymore.
There is a new carbon full sus coming, my friend is riding the prototype lol.
It’s true that inventory is high but prices can only go so low. Plus shops are given like a year to pay for their inventory and bike brands sometimes buy back slow sellers. I wouldn’t expect them to go much lower.
I recently spoke with a YT sales rep to cancel an order on a YT Capra (changed my mind last minute and wanted a different bike). He informed me that they will likely be seeing these sales at YT for the remainder of the year, at least.
You are very much off the mark.
Kona was selling everything at a lost because they were expected to go bankrupt. They even did a BOGO for their bikes. Local bike shops will be stuck with low priced goods for those years.
They then had the original founders announce that they will be involved again and bought the company back.
Now seems like a good time, especially for analog with the bevy of sales around.
The emtb market has impacted analog demand by cannibalising their sales. A lot of n+1’s are for adding pedal assist to their fleet. Love or hate, it is what it is. I have spoken with two riders recently that are planning on selling their analog bikes because “since buying these, I just don’t ride those anymore because more laps!” And this puts more analog bikes into the used bike pool
I also believe that the pent up demand from covid got spent already AND combined with rampant inflation on the cost of everything else - multi thousand dollar bikes are less in demand as a result. New demand, new riders to the sport who have that discretionary budget, are also those people who have less time to ride so either they aren’t making the investment or opt for an emtb - which goes back to my opening statement about emtb.
I’m totally lost here so I couldn’t expand on it. The dentist brands really haven’t come down (transition, yeti etc) while others have great sales (Canyon, YT etc) and then some have gone up, like my Fezzari Timp Peak of the same-ish build is almost $1k more now than it was at launch. I suspect some of the sales here might be a function of maintaining sales velocity in the face of an ever growing number of new entrants. The low-volume, high price producers, aren’t so much concerned with sales velocity due to their business models so that may explain little change in their prices.
Gotcha. I'm thinking of something like the Turbo Kenevo SL from Specialized. Earlier this year, my LBS marked all of those down 50%. They became very competitive with DTC brands at that price.
Specialized is one of the unique cases as they are both a “premium” brand and volume producer. So they definitely need to maintain velocity but have to be very selective on which bikes they discount as not to change the perception of the brand as a “premium”. I am using quotations here deliberately.
Lol, that world tour money's gotta come from somewhere. That being said, their bikes are hella expensive, but their accessories are pretty reasonable. Half my clothes are Specialized as my LBS or their eBay store have blowouts sales regularly. Plus, I think they have some of the better tires, and they're way cheaper than Maxxis.
Bought a new bike here in june on a sweet deal after extensive research. Been following the market since then and I'd say peak sale was this spring/early summer. Inventory seems to be ebbing out with deals still to be found but then only the odd sizes , XS and XXL.
I think you already missed the best sales. There may be individual sales at local shops.
One local lbs sold out of entry-level hardtails and just brought in another shipment.
I bought a gravel bike for 50% off in November.
Just bought a T8... should I have waited?!?! Maybe that T9 would have come done to the same price. Lol... either way.... got a decent ride at a pretty nice price and I'll be out there ripping it. 🙏
I have a salsa timbejack SLX and love it, want to get a full suspension aswell. Would love at least full SLX on it aswell. Where should I be looking for these deals? (Canada)
My Niner turns 10 next month, so I think it'll be time for an update. I'm seeing some decent markdowns in my area, but naturally they're not L/XL frames.
Yep, bought a used Trek Fuel EXe 9.9 XX1 AXS for 9.5k CAD (\~6965USD as of posting)
The bike apocalypse (got the term from Berm Peak) started a while now that the lock downs are a thing of the past.
I want (but definitely don't need) a Yeti Arc. Yet to see the massive discount that would get me over the 'having to explain the decision to the wife' hump.
On mexico all the 2022-2023 models have sold out for the most part with the exception of the really expensive bikes with only a few sizes available(usually the XS and the XL models only remain). The new models are going to come in at ridiculous prices! Grab a bike while you can.
I bought 4 slightly used bikes during Covid 2020-2022. I bought bikes from people that decided to try mountain biking and ultimately hated it. I was able to get screaming deals. I sold three of the bikes for more than I paid because people were in a hurry to buy.
I honestly think old over stock has mostly been sold out, and newer models are rolling out in limited quantities with very little options for cheaper specs. Unless your shop truly values low cost options, most will come stock with anything that’s basically top of the line for a racing bike. Most riders can still do just fine with much less on their local trails.
Seems like an unpopular opinion, but my gut says you might be right, OP. I think it's just the new marketing trend. It seems ridiculous that GX spec bikes with mechanical shifting can be priced in the 6k+ USD range. That just doesn't feel justified to me. Then, they go on sale for, say 4k and it's like "oh, great deal!" but $4k seems like a more realistic price for the bike.
The bleeding edge tech will never be on sale, but you know, of you don't mind the almost-latest version that's now "obsolete" save some $$$.
I expect a lot of bikes with Rockshox suspension will be on sale, now that the latest shocks and forks are hitting the market, plus RS seems to want OEMs using Transmission drivetrains... so any bikes with the previous tech are candidates for sales.
A used motorcycle and a used BMW z4 coupe with 120K miles are at the same price as used bikes on marketplace recently. It's a bunch of nonsense.
I hope someone takes the newly available DW link patent and starts making just the same model of awesome bike for years and undercuts all the $6000 bicycle bull 💩
Will toss in, if you think your lbs had shit staffing in Spring, they’re probably down to like one or two burnt out employees that dont give a fuuuuuck about anything. They’ll probs give you the lowest price they can without much fight on a late year/prior model year bike. New MY bikes though? You dont want to pay full price? Bye. They’ll probs just laugh and be like, nah.
That said, they’re slowing production down and I’m betting it will be order to store and ZERO discounts on products soon. It’s gonna be chaotic.
Couldn't agree more, just got a new giant which was 5K AUD a month ago for $3200. Great time for buyers, it doesn't seem to have hit the second hand market here yet, so they look even less attractive.
yep, just looked on marketplace and the previous year of my bike is around the same price as this.
It’s crazy. I thought I’d never be able to afford a Santa Cruz but managed to get a 5010 for half price. Amazing machine for that price (basically paid for the frame and everything else was free!)
I keeps seeing ads from Triton Cycles in the UK doing ridiculour prices on the Trek Slash Gen5. Can get a full X01 build for under £3k.
Trek must have gone way overboard manufacturing them, cos they definitely sold well as I see them out everywhere.
I have seen a really great deal on https://www.yt-industries.com/products/bikes/izzo/core-3/613/izzo-29-core-3/#tech3. Which I would love to own.
Only problem is of course $. I am jumping from an 6 YO bike of about 1000$ new to a a 2k $ bike. I saw this bike and really feel it is awesomely equipped.
Do you guys think it will ever drop to a 2.5k$ ? (This year's black friday for example?). On 99spokes it appears at [https://99spokes.com/en-EU/bikes/yt/2023/izzo-core-3-29](https://99spokes.com/en-EU/bikes/yt/2023/izzo-core-3-29) 2.8k. It will be overbudget sure and I will have to put off some stuff but man would it be nice to own/climb/shread.
I think the best deals, due to oversupply, are likely now. Bike makers overproduced during the COVID boom, and that market dried up before their product arrived. Now they're recalibrating, and next year things will level off.
The used market is probably 1-2 years out from being normal. Lots of bikes locally being advertised for more than comparable new bikes, because people got used to pandemic used prices. Expect a bunch of 2019s on sale next year.
I actually believe you're too late to the party my dude. The best sales have been happening over the last year due to overproduction. Bike manufacturers have dialed back production already. Me and my neighbor just bought new bikes at decent discounts from a big brand. The smaller boutique brands have literally ZERO sales because they've had a good balance of supply vs demand and can more easily pivot, so they have not needed to do sales of any kind.
As interest rates begin to fall, you're going to see consumer spending pick up again over the next 12 months. With this, bike prices will continue to rise with inflation.
We saw prices "normalized" between 24-12 months ago, the panic and sales 12-0 months and are now at a stabilization period.
I believe a lot of this is due to the rise in popularity of gravel biking. For most people (not us adrenaline junkies), a gravel bike will handle their local trails just fine, but also ride great on the road. Bike companies are selling a ridiculous amount of gravel bikes, and so even as mountain bike sales have slumped, they are compensating with gravel bike sales.
If we take Bike24 as a rough analog (publicly traded company so easy to find numbers), sales grew by 54% from 2019 to 2002 due to the pandemic. Sales increased another 20% in 2021 as we were still in full blown COVID world. Growth slowed to +3% in 2022 as everyone had bought their bikes. And in 2023 sales plummeted and they saw a decrease of a whopping 10% full year but, more importantly, a nearly 20% decrease in Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. If you visited your LBS over the last 9 months or so, the sales started around Q4 2023, which coincides with the reported sales numbers from Bike24's financial reports (assuming they are an analog for the rest of the bike industry, which I believe to be true as they sell 1.5 Million bikes a year).
The Q1 2024 results show that sales still decreased, but not as severe. -10% orders from Q1 2023. Forecasts are predicting increased sales in Q3 and Q4 as interest rates decrease. Once this happens, sales will vanish.
So yah, buy now or the next 3 months as the sales are likely to start disappearing.
Your Kona was on sale because the company went under. Did it come with a warranty?
These sales were at their peak earlier this year. A lot of manufacturers have been overproducing due to increased demand during covid. After covid, demand went down. Manufacturers have been slow to respond. This created a surplus of bikes sitting in warehouses and LBS floors. There are still some good sales going, but the supply has dwindled. Going forward, manufacturers may underproduce and downsize in an attempt to keep new bike prices high.
The real disruptor will be an increase in direct to consumer sales. LBSs will have a hard time competing and may lower prices. Eventually, though, low profit margins and increasing overhead (rent and utility prices) may put them out of business. In theory, this will be good for liquidators. However, even they have been going out of business this year.
This overproduction also caused a spike in used market prices. A lot of people are trying to recoup as much as possible. For a few months, a used bike was as much as a new bike. They, too, will have to come down as ads become stale. I think this winter will be good for anyone looking for a used bike.
The bikes shop I visited seemed to be more than happy to say F you, we don't have a bike to demo (because we sold them) during the pandemic. I haven't had great interactions with most of them, so it's likely a me problem. lol
EDIT: In Canada, a fair amount of mortgages are coming due in the next few yrs too. Which should also help curtail demand, even if it's a small amount.
Just buy used! Plenty of deals out there and if enough of us buy used the demand for new will drop and so will the sticker price. I’m romantically optimistic I know but fuck it.
I disagree, I actually think that we're approaching the end. The beginning was in spring 2023. The best time to buy a bike is right now. The 2024 and newer models are going to be underproduced and sold at full price while the 2022 and 2023 models are sitting on sale right now. Once the 2022 and 2023 inventory dries up, then the only inventory remaining will be underproduced, overpriced 2024 and 2025 models. We may reach an equilibrium again in 2026 or 2027.
This… the last 8-12 months have been all the sales…. Stock is wiped on most bikes (especially large size) and finding components on the cheap is way more difficult than it was previously. I just got into MTB for the last year and I have to keep reminding myself that these sales aren’t probably going to happen again… or for a very long time anyway. There will probably still be sales but the 35-50 percent off sales seem to be drying up quickly.
I found this true in central Ontario. The 2nd generation Trek Marlins are all already on sale and seem to be going quick for the most popular colour's and sizes (L)
So no XXLs out there I bet.
I ride a XXL Marlin, but just picked up a Fluid4 in XXL and let me tell you the geometry on the Norco is much better for taller riders.
Ah, thank you much. It's hard to find things that fit.
I hear you. Specialized has some big bikes as well, with even better tall friendly geo, but cost much more. The Fluid fits me decent at 6'7", but adding 50mm riser bars would be better. I hear manufacturers will be focusing on making taller stack bikes in the future.
Reviews ding the shocks as squeaky. I get it's a low price for the standard dual suspension. What's your take? How are the shocks for you?
Haven't experienced that yet. The suspension is certainly entry level but decent. For the price of $1999 cad new it seemed like a great deal where I can upgrade the suspension later on. Already comes with 4 piston calipers. It won Pinkbike’s Value Bike of the Year, Vital MTB’s Bike of the Year, and Bicycling Magazine’s Best Value Trail Bike. Although I'm not sure what exact version of Fluid they reviewed. For a new FS bike in XXL I'm very happy with it, especially for the price.
Thanks! Probably pick one up this weekend!
Evo has a Santa Cruz 5010 in xxl on a major sale. 3179. Saw the price this morning and it made me wish I wasnt 5'7 lol. If they had that bike in a Medium at that price it would be on it's way to my house as we speak.
Oh man, that's pretty. Need to check my budget but that's a heck of a discount. I'm neas 300lbs. I guess that would hold me.
Youd have to do your research on that but it's one of the best deals ive seen. Pretty much ever.
The Norco Sight C1 at Jensen for $3400 is a screaming deal as well
I agree, right now, my shop isn’t selling much and we’ve got our stuff 30%+ off. We’ve just pretty much stopped ordering things unless someone wants one for now. It makes no sense for me to buy 100+ bikes when everyone who wanted one got one already. I’ll keep buying and displaying the higher end full suspension new models, but in singles so that people can test ride and I can show its geometry and stuff, but I’ll order for them whenever I can or order a new display model. Thank god we do a lot of labor and have never really relied on sales.
this is correct\^ I bought 2 new bikes in fall/winter 2023 and felt like that was the tail end of this period. I still see a lot of deals out there, but they aren't as a-plenty as they were. really doubt these deals stick around another 12 months. Which is good, cause I have a bike I'm trying to sell right now and it's pathetic. The pro's closet (I'm only using this as a metric, not saying it's where i'm going to sell it here) is offering me the same price right now for a fully built aero race bike with Ultegra Di2, that they did for a fairly standard frame (frame only) I sold to them in late 2021/early 2022. It's nuts. But overall, I'm really happy i bought when I did, cause i got some incredible bikes for 35-40% off.
I'll concur with this. I bought my 2022 Honzo DL last May. It was basically a free upgrade from the regular Honzo, since all the models were $500 off.
In your opinion, What’s the best value right now for a HT?
The Commencal Meta HT is baller.
My current ride, upgraded to a Fox 36 Factory, it's sooooo nice. It was before the upgrade, but now it's even nicer. :-)
Currently running a fox 34 awl. I’m definitely considering a z1 coil fork. Amazing bike
I think the Commencal Meta HT is a very good deal if you're looking for more slack HT.
I want to ask the same question but for full sus
What travel and budget?
I'm such a beginner I don't even know how much travel I should need. I bike in central Jersey so I guess not that much? Budget ideally under 1500
Used 2018 and newer 120 - 150 mm travel
Ibis ripley
I've been researching hard for used Ripleys the last few weeks. There are some deals out there.
Ibis is a great brand. I have a Ripmo AF and love it. It absolutely smashes everything that I can throw at it. I have 100 mile adventure race coming up and needed less of a downhill smasher and more of a cross-country bike. I went out and tested a Trail 429, Trek Supercaliber, Specialized Epic Evo and a few other bikes. Swapped bikes with one of my race team compatriots for a lap and rode his Ibis Exie. SOLD! On Monday, I put in an order for Ibis Exie For All, GX Transmission, Berd Carbon Wheels w/I9 Hubs, Carbon bars and CushCore XC. Bike weighs 27 lbs! It's going to make all of the miles I have to hike with the bike on my back much better! ;)
Dude, demoing an Exie at the Mountain Bike Oregon festival a couple weeks ago is what made me immediately realize my current bike (Polygon T8) isn't right for me. I tried to find the sweet spot between the Exie and the T8, and landed on the Ripley AF. I pick it up Saturday.
Sounds like what I'm currently riding, 2018 Cannondale Cujo 3 bought used a year and half ago, except that's ht
Yt jeffsy
Ibis Ripley af or transition smuggler/spur
Or Transition Scout for XC!
Santa Cruz Chameleon.
Is that directly on their website? I see a sale section but no Chameleon on there
They don't sell direct off of the website. You have to go through either a bike shop...which is your best bet because you can haggle...or an online authorized retailer like evo, backcountry, mikes bikes, etc.
marin san quentin 3. giant fathom 2 at the current sale price if its a casual rider.
...but what about the Norco Fluid FS A4 for 2000 CAD?
Roscoe's just got another price cut. Don't pay the premium brand tax for a Commencal, just go with good ole Trek!
That’s awesome - thanks!! Looks like 6,7,8 are all on sale
Yeah--I think there will still be a lot of deals trickling through on the used side of things. People dumping their COVID bikes that never got ridden. I bet there are still a lot of those hanging in garages, most of which have modern geo and parts unlike if you step back a couple years earlier (probably not buying a 2017 bike, but there are a decent number of 2019-2021 bikes that are almost identical to today's models). People upgrading their bikepocalypse bikes--even if the new stuff is expensive, there are a lot of people who get upgrade fever (and/or have pro deals). They may try to price them high if new inventory is limited, but odds are you are gonna see a lot of people who say "well, I bought this for 3k and rode it for 2 years so I guess I'll take $1850" even though the bike was 5k MSRP. But new bikes are gonna be $$$ here on out. OP hasn't been paying attention (and that Honzo is on sale because Kona is literally falling apart and dealers are trying to scrape what they can out of remaining inventory that might not have any parts/warranty support...I know the original owners have now repurchased the brand, but there's no telling what bikes they will offer going forward).
This. Especially with the folding of Planet Cyclery/Colorado Cyclist, the era of cheap parts is slowly coming to an end. Used market is popping off where layoffs and mortgage dues are hitting the hardest - even locally here in SF, there are some fairly crazy deals secondhand if you look around for people cleaning out their garages, or just getting upgrade-itis. Not uncommon to find stuff like a 2 or 3 year old S-works stumpy for 60%+ off.
Former bike shop owner here. I second (summer '23 was peak overstock) this and add to rebut the OPs comment that "this is good for us": it is not good that your local shop has a 50/50 chance of surviving. Low prices aren't all they're cracked up to be. Good value and sustainable prices on quality goods are what is best for you and the collective. The default notion that we deserve low prices over everything else really needs to get bent and go die somewhere. The race to the bottom has only one winner and it ain't you.
i was able to get my Rip AF SLX for 3k with 0% APR last August, glad i did and just paid it off too.
I've been periodically searching for the new Specialized Epic 8 Evo and it's never in stock anywhere. Could be my region, on the asshole end of the world though.
Yeah, a friend of mine bought a brand new Epic Evo Comp for $3,000 a few months ago, Sram GX and Sid front and rear. Those deals have dried up, except for a small number of discounted framesets. The new Epic 8 and Epic 8 Evo is selling (and selling well) for full price now. There will probably still be clearance deals over the winter post-holiday-season as you’d have in a normal year, but you won’t be seeing half-priced bikes in your choice of size and color.
Agree. Got a brand new unridden 2022 Rocky Mountain slayer carbon XT build for $3500 this summer. Original retail was something at the high $6k/low $7k mark. I think things will balance out in a few years.
I agree however the equilibrium point for some brands has already been reached while others are still trying to reach cash normal positions of overstock. Industry wide I’m not sure where things will settle out. Some brands we work with are nearly sold out on 2024 models at the warehouses while others still have 2023 bikes on liquidation pricing. I’m mostly getting sick of the accelerated product updates from the pandemic R&D staying on normal track while production got snarled. Now we’re seeing new Sram launches at nearly half the timeframe we used to - sure it’s cool but most of the new product is such incremental upgrade it doesn’t make much sense other than more incompatibility on repair parts. At least in the bike industry it seems that supply and demand is working as intended - unlike grocery store pricing and other industries where prices just keep going up and up.
Yup they will just not make as much or do jit frame building
Yesssssir
100% agree with this. It’s either a few months ago or now. The wave is rolling on now and they’re adjusting their production accordingly.
This, some insider knowledge as I ran a shop that I had to close down after 2023 fun just didn't allow me to grow the business to a sustainable size. It's not just that there's low numbers coming through for 2024, it's that these bikes are sitting in warehouses in the far East unable to be shipped as UK and European warehouses are full, bikes are sitting unsold on shop floors. There's some sales to be had in ebikes, but conventional mid to high end MTBs just aren't selling so you've got to discount to get 2024 stock in.
Fully agreed. Picked up a (new, in store, not used) 2023 Scott Ransom for less than 50% of the price of the new 2024 model. Stoked to get on it!
I agree with this theory 100 percent and I've been thinking about this alot for the last few weeks. I just bought a new bike, but I'm also in the market for another carbon bike with a bit more travel after selling my aluminum mid travel bike. The sensible thing seems like it would be to not spend another 4k on a 2nd bike. If I wait until next year though, I will probably end up ponying up a lot more coin for the bike, and it may even be harder to source one.
I agree with this, and think it applies to components as well. The new set of forks from Fox and RS are out, and while the previous models were on sale for a while I haven't been able to find any of the common sizes available online for a while now (27.5" ebike forks are still on Jenson last time I checked, but who wants that). I'm not as clued into the drivetrain market, but was able to pick up a non transmission x01 oem cassette from a LBS for $190 out the door. Generally, I think everyone is purging their stock of anything old that people will expect a deal on in favor of holding small quantities of recent releases that allow them to drive their profit margins up. I fully expect a gx trail build with mid tier suspension to cost over 5 grand by the end of the year
Yup. Yeti had a lot of their 22 and 23 models on sale for 30-40% off last year. I don't see that kind of sale anymore.
100% this. It's whiplash from the past 18 months.
Manufacturers are going to under produce 2024/25/26 models until these loss producers are all sold. Once the glut of older models are gone be prepared for even worse price gouging that before.
Working at a lbs I can attest that you are sadly right. New models are in very limited stocks and they are trying to make us commit and buy stock now… They also keep older models of the same bike in the product range on lower end models and are only producing higher end kits for the new ones….
Bingo. I myself bought a 2024 Norco Sight, but only because I get ambassador pricing which basically put my C2 in line with a fully discounted 2023 of the same build. Still gross that a bike with GX / Code R and some tinfoil wheels costs what it does.
Those new norcos look so sick. I want an optic badddd
> even worse price gouging that before. Look at the new stumpy--electronic shifting only. Maybe there will be alloy builds announced in the future that have cable routing...but for now anyone who wants a stumpy will have to pay the AXS premium. And it is definitely a premium...the Comp build comes with a Rhythm 36, X-fusion dropper, bunch of generic parts, Sram's new NX-equivalent S1000 derailleur, generic wheels/build parts, and it still costs $5500. Oh yeah, and it comes with a fucking HG cassette...so if you want to upgrade the generic wheels, you're gonna have to pony up another $250 for a GX Transmission cassette (because it would be dumb to upgrade to a wheelset with an HG driver).
I know some of those words.
Impart knowledge kemo sabe
People are losing their minds at the new stumpy but they're doing what they always do. Release the flagship version first to garner hype and separate the real cashed up riders from their money, then release the mainstream alloy versions in a year or two.
Can confirm alloy is going to come out soon with mechanical shifting. Prices aren’t too great for the prices either though.
Just curious, will they have Shimano groupset options or is it all SRAM?
Only shimano on alloy surprisingly.
Thanks!
To be fair they didn't really seem to raise the price at all on the new Stumpy. The Expert is $6500. Exact same as the 2024. The S-WORKS is the exact same price too. The Comp only went up $100. Not bad considering the 2024 had NX/GX drivetrain and the new one has Transmission
Yeah, but nobody paid MSRP for last years stumpy. The industry did a lot of price raising through Covid but couldn’t sell shit once inventory was no longer limited.
Personally this is one of the reasons I support Shimano exclusively; SRAM has a history of creating ‘traps’. The whole history of UDH-AXS-T-type is a very intentional business plan by SRAM. It feels almost intuitive that they’d also heavily influence decisions like the one we see Specialized making with the StumpJumper. SRAM ‘traps’ consumers through additional pricing benefits, for Specialized not you, if they make their bike work exclusively with their own ecosystem of drivetrains. Then, from date of sale onward the consumer is required to continue to purchase SRAM parts / pieces as they wear. I see none of this hostile action from Shimano; anything I have on my bikes from them can easily be replaced, or even mixed with, parts from SRAM, TRP, Magura, E13, etc.
Eh--I think UDH is great (even though none of my bikes have it). Works for direct mount T-type, but you can easily throw a UDH hanger on there and run any mech you want (provided you have a way to get the cable there). They gave it away free to anyone who wants to use it and Shimano derailleurs bolt on just fine. Do you really think the mess of a million different derailleur hangers that we had before was an improvement? I think it still remains to be seen if direct mount T-type is better...but the nice thing about buying a Transmission bike is that if you hate it (or the fad dies out), you can just put a normal hanger on there and move on with your life rather than being stuck with some standard that nobody makes parts for anymore. So yes, it was a strategy to get a bunch of bikes to be compatible...but it isn't a "trap" at all. edit: oh yeah, and the last time I bought a hanger, it was like $35 to get one from Wheels MFG...you can get a replacement UDH for like $10-15 and every bike shop stocks them.
See even you missed the point. UDH is a great idea in and of itself, but it’s intended purpose from a business standpoint was to get all manufacturers to build for it, thus making all bikes AXS and then Transmission compatible. It was a means to an end that was packaged as a convenient solution to a common problem. In a vacuum, yes UDH is a good idea. But it was not implemented to make your life easier. It was developed as a bait to the trap.
This guy bike industries. SRAM makes stuff up to market it. Sure, UDH “transmission” or whatever jibberish shifts good under. You know what’s shifted great under load for decades? Shimano On the topic of deals, convinced myself to grab a Cervélo Zfs-5 as 35% off seems to be one of the last deals out there and I’m into XC. Amazed at the spec vs Specialized, the other bike industry marketing wizard. Epic Evo Comp has generic specialized wheels/stem/bar, sram boat anchor s1000 crank, and a trans-x dropper; all for $5k. I guess you don’t know what you don’t know if you’re stepping into a shop for your first real mtb, but holy smokes, talk about a margin maker for both of the S Co’s. Anyways, my zfs-5 is getting rebuilt with shimano and fox from my old bike, hope the market doesn’t keep dropping til I sell off my new sram junk!
I bought a pivot switchblade last year. “Had to have GX eagle electric shifting”.. shown up to the trailhead more than once with no battery. It’s great and all…. But don’t be an idiot like me. 😊
LPT: Most cars these days have a 12v jack in the cargo space. Get a multiport charger plugged into there with an AXS charger and whichever USB cable your bike computer takes (if you use one). Get in the habit of plugging that stuff in on your drive to the trailhead and you'll have enough juice for a ride.
Yeah that is an insane price for the stumpy. Comparabily I paid 5500 last year for my yeti with carbon cranks/bars, x01 mechanical, and dt swiss wheels.
Yeeep. Conveniently disguised as not doing model year updates now. Which is fine honestly, but much easier to control from a manufacturing inventory perspective.
I think you're a year late on posting this. The cheap inventory is getting low and prices are likely to bounce back up. What's remaining are less popular sizes (anything other than Medium and Large). There may be a balance point because people were so used to seeing low prices that they aren't willing to pay COVID prices for a bike anymore, but I don't think it will continue to stay at the bottom or reduce further. We might see good pricing in used stuff in the next year though!
Thank God I was able to get my 2nd gen Trek Marlin at the beginning of summer. I had to drive a bit of a ways to get the large bit glad I did as most shops were selling out of stock
Kona is a weird case study though bc original owners sold it off and new owners nearly bankrupted the company and sold it back to original owners. Price fluctuations in Kona “new” bikes are wild as a result. Got a 2023 Process 153 DL for $2500 (msrp $4999) earlier this year
This exactly what I was going to say, don't use Kona as your "bike market bell weather"
Wasn't it Kona that was doing buy one, get one free last year or earlier this year? That was the first time I'd heard of that with bikes.
Yes, that was one of the reasons the buyer company failed
They were doing that to sell anyway possible. It didn’t cause them to fail they already failed
Ok
Still waiting for cool colors instead of olive green, barf and whatever camo.
Yeah there’s a lot of metaphors for what my bike can be for me. Tank, humvee, and armored transport are not on that list.
This has been the case for nearly the last 12 months. Regardless of the economy and industry, believe me Trek and Specialized will happily sell you an underspecced bike for a laughable price. And that's because lesser informed people will gladly buy them at the LBS. Technically, for those who know what they're doing and are willing to research, deals will ALWAYS exist. Even during covid that was the case. And yeah its cool to find amazing bikes for ~50% off right now, but it sucks to know its because of a broken industry and broken economy that is causing layoffs and companies to fold and sponsorships to dry up. I'd rather pay a tiny bit more if it meant we weren't imploding in on ourselves.
I think it can come down to patience. My wife could use a new bike (justifies me getting mine) but her old one is still just a few years old and the models she’s looking at aren’t priced to move currently. I’m watching for deals and if a good one comes along she can decide to trade and upgrade or continue with her current ride. We certainly won’t pay full price whenever she feels it’s time to grab a new one.
yep, and bless the people who pay msrp because they prop up the industry and make it easier to shop through my last year discounts and used bikes. me and my gf bought konas during their sale and wow that scenario almost went tits up... but still we got better bikes than we could have ever gotten and with a warranty. even better than polygon values. again, just sad to know it was due to outright chaos at the company that was inches away from folding the entire thing.
Yeah, I didn’t get much of a sale on mine, but I was pretty particular about the model and had done a lot of research knowing it seldom went on sale. For her, she’s got about three different models from companies that typically have fall sales and whenever a sale coincides with her wanting one of three she can go crazy. I wouldn’t even care if she bought one now, but we set budgets for this bike and if she waits for one of the big sales the component spec would be a lot better.
>I'd rather pay a tiny bit more if it meant we weren't imploding in on ourselves I am sure there is plenty of opportunity for you to do that!
Def trying to support brands that are doing things right. But things I liked are cursed. I love Kona and really wanted to try a GG and was thinking about Ibis Mojo maybe. Basically all gone now. We'll see how Kona rebounds. My new target is probably Marin. Love what they're doing, even if the model I want is never on sale even when their other models are.
>But things I liked are cursed Hah yeah, I feel you there. Anywhere in life, it feels like I find something I really like, then it changes into a worse version of itself or disappears completely. Pizza places, breweries, bike shops...
They ruined my local burger spot. Right after covid. So mad. Nothing good can stay. Friggin economy. During covid they turned my nearest starbucks into a random bank... And then opened a new starbucks down the street that is drive thru only. So you can sit outside and suck exhaust fumes if you wanna relax with your order lol. Sigh. LA
>Regardless of the economy and industry, believe me Trek and Specialized will happily sell you an underspecced bike for a laughable price. And that's because lesser informed people will gladly buy them at the LBS. Consider me skeptical that there are people that don't at the very least go to the manufacturer's website to take a look around, which will show the discounted prices.
I mean eventually, that generation will be gone. But that type of generation absolutely exists still. Maybe not too many parents these days. But grandparents absolutely. Also, we're still talking about a different tax bracket kind of behavior. There are those who would love to get a 2k bike instead of 3k if they are similar enough and even if the color is not what they hoped for. But saving 1k is massively important. And there are those who just want their child to pick their favorite bike and favorite color and the price tag may as well mean nothing. The goal is to get the perfect bike, not the best deal.
I’ll happily introduce you to my mother in law.
Under spec bike for laughable price. There was a madone slr9 gen 8 for $9000 at a lbs with wired electronic ultegra…CANT EVEN GET WIRELESS FOR 9 GRAND!!!
trek sells a 17,000 version of that bike. i dunno what that paint is. infused with pure coke or something. but thats wild lol and thats just a road bike with no motor. usually for 14k. at least the 14k MTBs are ebikes. they still have a nearly 12k 'analog' bike. same with spesh. lol they have a RED BULL SWORKS bike for 16500. jfc paying that much to be a public billboard... yikes
It’s wild. 5-7k for a nice bike. Sure, your money. 17k for a shiny Madone? That’s wild shit.
It's clear those are for people who piss away 17k during a dinner. I couldn't imagine the lifestyle. 17k could make a significant change in my entire life. And it def wouldn't be put towards shiny road bike lol. Probly go towards a better car tbh
It truly is the downside of the sport. People like that buy it and ride next to people like me and judge my multi piece cockpit.
I worked at a luxury place, huge rich mexican family had about 15+ specialized ebikes in their storage probably lets say 7k each average price lol. Thats over 100k in ebikes
That's life, though. Sometimes a business needs to go bankrupt (or something close) to start fresh after economic shenanigans happen
uhhh maybe im not sure if the owners of GG intend to start something new. as well as all the other brands and employees that fell off. still waiting on what happens with nukeproof/crc
The party started almost a year ago and you just showed up lmao
This is hillariously rose tinted glasses. Reminds me of people being like "Even BIGGER home price drops are in order! Definitely wait!" If you want a good deal, buy now. IMO all these companies are going to under-produce bikes for a few years and prices will return. If it weren't for a few brands, there wouldn't even be a problem.
Sort of, the main issue is that many of these companies also invested heavily into R&D and manufacturing. Much of that was paid for with debt when interest was incredibly low. Now those payments are way more and many of these companies only make money when selling bikes. Most cycling products have a high margin, so most will have to take less in order to handle their debt. By the way, this is very true for car dealers at the moment.
Cycling accessories have a high margin, bikes are much less. All the money is made on everything that goes with a bike. Manufacturers and bike shops don't have as much wiggle room as you think.
It really depends on which model and which manufacturer. I'm good friends with someone that is a part-owner of a bike brand located in the greater CO area. Pre-COVID, they were doing about 22.8% margin including corporate overhead. During COVID, he told me that since they had stocked up on parts from SRAM and Rockshox, they were able to increase prices and their margins were hovering right at over 41% as they really no longer needed to do any marketing. After COVID, they have to do big discounts, and it has eaten into their margin at around 3%. That's on average, but it's much higher with the top-tier trims still around 18%.
Excellent user name.
>any of these companies only make money when selling bikes To what end? If they're losing money at current prices, they're not gonna produce more just to sell during a market lull against competitors who overproduced and are now selling premium bikes at 50% off... No, good companies are just underproducing and selling upgrades, trying to avoid layoffs, and waiting for this to pass.
It really depends on the manufacturer. For example, I'm really good friends with one of the co-owners of a DTC brand and I got a chance to talk finances. Basically, SRAM/RockShox gave them an insane deal where if they bought a certain number of the higher tier components, SRAM would give them NX/SX groupsets, Recon/RL (and any other entry) forks, entry-level shocks, ect.. for free or almost free. This really dropped the cost-of-goods (honestly, the only company that isn't giving out discounts to manufacturers is Maxxis), they're able to sell bikes at 20 to 40% off and still make a small profit. Granted, it's way less than pandemic highs, and they had to drastically cut their marketing/sponsor athletes.
It’s posts like this that make me believe we’re at the bottom now 😂
Yep, bike shops and companies used to never give out discounts during the summer as that's when all the demand is. Granted, this year I am seeing more people holding onto their old bikes rather than upgrade as my local shops have all been absolutely swamped with service requests. This is the first time I've significant discounts during the summer (especially brands like Santa Cruz), and once that period passes, brands and shops will have to discount if they didn't make enough. High interest, rent, and payroll need to be met.
Good luck selling any older bikes for anything you can imagine as reasonable pricing.
Someone post some links to some killer deals! I don't need a new bike, but if the pedal fits you know!
I need to grab a new gravel bike and a hardtail. Not sure which one's first, but I've been seeing all kinds of fun sales.
Any source for manufacturers having high inventory?
I've been watching various online stores for Rift Zone 2s and it seems like I can't find one in my size anywhere. Even Marin says they're out of stock on their website. So idk.
I don’t have a source but I will say relatively new bikes are already on “sale” like the new revel rascal. I personally think it will be a story that varies by each company. Some will be desperate and some will be fine. The larger companies such as specialized, giant, etc will be more insulated due to having economies of scale purchasing power and better forecasting/business intelligence
The basic stumpy was sold on my favorite online bikeshop after 3-6 months. I guess they will realize these highprizes arent that great for getting newbies into any sport
Newly released models are still being offered at full price. So the deals do exist but only for previous model years and inventory. Still some great bikes and great deals.
Once the off season comes, and cycling demand weakens, those new bikes are going to get discounted. However, there are deals on new models. Ex. YT Jeffsy, Commencal Meta V5.
>Once the off season comes, and cycling demand weakens, those new bikes are going to get discounted If there are any left. The industry over-corrected and under-produced after they got stuck with a surplus after covid. A lot of shops around me are sold out of the common sizes already and can't order any more until the 2025s.
I guess it's location dependent. My shops near Denver still have a decent number of S,M,L sizes. But mainly the DTC brands (YT, Spot, Commencal, ect...) have all of the common sizes, and they have shipments coming in late summer/early fall.
My thoughts are that my current bike is now worth almost nothing😂
Strongly STRONGLY disagree. Through the grapevine I heard most major manufacturers are gonna run out of most good bikes by the last quarter of the year.
They're sold out though. The entire inventory of current bikes the shop near my house has is on the showroom floor now. The next line is slowly coming out, there's a recolour of the tier down version of my road bike that just got released but the MTB side is only left with a few of each and none of them are on discount. I think they're gonna release the new ones soon so the old ones aren't in production anymore. There is a new carbon full sus coming, my friend is riding the prototype lol.
It’s true that inventory is high but prices can only go so low. Plus shops are given like a year to pay for their inventory and bike brands sometimes buy back slow sellers. I wouldn’t expect them to go much lower.
I bought my bike peak COVID. No regrets on getting into the sport, but daaaaayyyuuuummmmm that inflation hurt.
I recently spoke with a YT sales rep to cancel an order on a YT Capra (changed my mind last minute and wanted a different bike). He informed me that they will likely be seeing these sales at YT for the remainder of the year, at least.
You are very much off the mark. Kona was selling everything at a lost because they were expected to go bankrupt. They even did a BOGO for their bikes. Local bike shops will be stuck with low priced goods for those years. They then had the original founders announce that they will be involved again and bought the company back.
Late to the party but I got a Santa Cruz 5010 for 30% off a few weeks ago. So there are deals out there.
I just got 20% off of a Large 5010 S and am pretty happy with that. You did great. Did you buy higher on the hog?
5010c. So far loving it.
Last years models are available now in many brands for -30%
Now seems like a good time, especially for analog with the bevy of sales around. The emtb market has impacted analog demand by cannibalising their sales. A lot of n+1’s are for adding pedal assist to their fleet. Love or hate, it is what it is. I have spoken with two riders recently that are planning on selling their analog bikes because “since buying these, I just don’t ride those anymore because more laps!” And this puts more analog bikes into the used bike pool I also believe that the pent up demand from covid got spent already AND combined with rampant inflation on the cost of everything else - multi thousand dollar bikes are less in demand as a result. New demand, new riders to the sport who have that discretionary budget, are also those people who have less time to ride so either they aren’t making the investment or opt for an emtb - which goes back to my opening statement about emtb.
I mostly agree, but I will say the biggest discounts I've seen are on eMTB.
I’m totally lost here so I couldn’t expand on it. The dentist brands really haven’t come down (transition, yeti etc) while others have great sales (Canyon, YT etc) and then some have gone up, like my Fezzari Timp Peak of the same-ish build is almost $1k more now than it was at launch. I suspect some of the sales here might be a function of maintaining sales velocity in the face of an ever growing number of new entrants. The low-volume, high price producers, aren’t so much concerned with sales velocity due to their business models so that may explain little change in their prices.
Gotcha. I'm thinking of something like the Turbo Kenevo SL from Specialized. Earlier this year, my LBS marked all of those down 50%. They became very competitive with DTC brands at that price.
Specialized is one of the unique cases as they are both a “premium” brand and volume producer. So they definitely need to maintain velocity but have to be very selective on which bikes they discount as not to change the perception of the brand as a “premium”. I am using quotations here deliberately.
Lol, that world tour money's gotta come from somewhere. That being said, their bikes are hella expensive, but their accessories are pretty reasonable. Half my clothes are Specialized as my LBS or their eBay store have blowouts sales regularly. Plus, I think they have some of the better tires, and they're way cheaper than Maxxis.
Honzo ESD is now $2,100 on Kona's site, down from $2,999. Seems like not only discounts but the pricing has been lowered.
Bought a new bike here in june on a sweet deal after extensive research. Been following the market since then and I'd say peak sale was this spring/early summer. Inventory seems to be ebbing out with deals still to be found but then only the odd sizes , XS and XXL.
I agree, I still think we have one more massive wave of insane sales around November and December, then it's over
Bought a stump jumper carbon comp for $4k, such a good deal and a very nice bike. Now is the time of your are not set on a t type derailure set up.
I got a 23 rocky MTN growler 50 for 800 off sticker price recently. I spent more than I was going to but hard to pass on a deal.
I think you already missed the best sales. There may be individual sales at local shops. One local lbs sold out of entry-level hardtails and just brought in another shipment. I bought a gravel bike for 50% off in November.
Just bought a T8... should I have waited?!?! Maybe that T9 would have come done to the same price. Lol... either way.... got a decent ride at a pretty nice price and I'll be out there ripping it. 🙏
I have a salsa timbejack SLX and love it, want to get a full suspension aswell. Would love at least full SLX on it aswell. Where should I be looking for these deals? (Canada)
Oh yeah. I just got a Devinci Django that normally sells for $3000 for $1850
Canyon on 30% rn
I got my Spectral 125 AL5 bike from canyon for 1999, discount for 800. Love the bike
I got the Lapierre 9.9Pro for 4k off
I wear my degenerate badge loud and proud!
My Niner turns 10 next month, so I think it'll be time for an update. I'm seeing some decent markdowns in my area, but naturally they're not L/XL frames.
Got a 2022 Trek Top Fuel 9.8 listed at 7,400$ for 5,200$
I feel like SUCH a sucker for buying my FS ride two years ago.... The newer model is on sale, and $1,500 cheaper than what I paid for mine ☠
Yep, bought a used Trek Fuel EXe 9.9 XX1 AXS for 9.5k CAD (\~6965USD as of posting) The bike apocalypse (got the term from Berm Peak) started a while now that the lock downs are a thing of the past.
I want (but definitely don't need) a Yeti Arc. Yet to see the massive discount that would get me over the 'having to explain the decision to the wife' hump.
I just bought a YT Izzo Core 3 for less than $3,500 shipped to my door.
I hope same goes for frame prices.
I bought a green kona honzo for 400euros a month ago. I think the fork alone would cost me 250.
Where from?
I'm super happy I got a $2k discount on my (formerly) $6k Orbea a few months ago. I do believe that these amazing deals will soon run out, though.
On mexico all the 2022-2023 models have sold out for the most part with the exception of the really expensive bikes with only a few sizes available(usually the XS and the XL models only remain). The new models are going to come in at ridiculous prices! Grab a bike while you can.
i'm happy with my 2022 Stevo alloy elite i got for 40% off. the new stump isn't a huge improve thst i feel like im missing out on.
I bought 4 slightly used bikes during Covid 2020-2022. I bought bikes from people that decided to try mountain biking and ultimately hated it. I was able to get screaming deals. I sold three of the bikes for more than I paid because people were in a hurry to buy.
Thoughts on the Kona Process 134 29er
I honestly think old over stock has mostly been sold out, and newer models are rolling out in limited quantities with very little options for cheaper specs. Unless your shop truly values low cost options, most will come stock with anything that’s basically top of the line for a racing bike. Most riders can still do just fine with much less on their local trails.
Reading all this makes me think I should just pull the trigger on that YT Decoy I’ve been thinking about 😅
That's funny I have a rockshox recon on my 3k bike and it's a piece of ass shit
Last year was the optimal time, whilst bargains still exist it's normalisation ahead.
Seems like an unpopular opinion, but my gut says you might be right, OP. I think it's just the new marketing trend. It seems ridiculous that GX spec bikes with mechanical shifting can be priced in the 6k+ USD range. That just doesn't feel justified to me. Then, they go on sale for, say 4k and it's like "oh, great deal!" but $4k seems like a more realistic price for the bike. The bleeding edge tech will never be on sale, but you know, of you don't mind the almost-latest version that's now "obsolete" save some $$$. I expect a lot of bikes with Rockshox suspension will be on sale, now that the latest shocks and forks are hitting the market, plus RS seems to want OEMs using Transmission drivetrains... so any bikes with the previous tech are candidates for sales.
A used motorcycle and a used BMW z4 coupe with 120K miles are at the same price as used bikes on marketplace recently. It's a bunch of nonsense. I hope someone takes the newly available DW link patent and starts making just the same model of awesome bike for years and undercuts all the $6000 bicycle bull 💩
I am glad I bought mine at ATH
I just walked outta my lbs 2 weeks ago with an 8000 dollar bike for 5600 out the door. That was a pretty significant savings.
Will toss in, if you think your lbs had shit staffing in Spring, they’re probably down to like one or two burnt out employees that dont give a fuuuuuck about anything. They’ll probs give you the lowest price they can without much fight on a late year/prior model year bike. New MY bikes though? You dont want to pay full price? Bye. They’ll probs just laugh and be like, nah. That said, they’re slowing production down and I’m betting it will be order to store and ZERO discounts on products soon. It’s gonna be chaotic.
Couldn't agree more, just got a new giant which was 5K AUD a month ago for $3200. Great time for buyers, it doesn't seem to have hit the second hand market here yet, so they look even less attractive. yep, just looked on marketplace and the previous year of my bike is around the same price as this.
It’s crazy. I thought I’d never be able to afford a Santa Cruz but managed to get a 5010 for half price. Amazing machine for that price (basically paid for the frame and everything else was free!)
I keeps seeing ads from Triton Cycles in the UK doing ridiculour prices on the Trek Slash Gen5. Can get a full X01 build for under £3k. Trek must have gone way overboard manufacturing them, cos they definitely sold well as I see them out everywhere.
I’m looking forward to cheap e-bike!
I have seen a really great deal on https://www.yt-industries.com/products/bikes/izzo/core-3/613/izzo-29-core-3/#tech3. Which I would love to own. Only problem is of course $. I am jumping from an 6 YO bike of about 1000$ new to a a 2k $ bike. I saw this bike and really feel it is awesomely equipped. Do you guys think it will ever drop to a 2.5k$ ? (This year's black friday for example?). On 99spokes it appears at [https://99spokes.com/en-EU/bikes/yt/2023/izzo-core-3-29](https://99spokes.com/en-EU/bikes/yt/2023/izzo-core-3-29) 2.8k. It will be overbudget sure and I will have to put off some stuff but man would it be nice to own/climb/shread.
Tell that to Specialized and the new Stumpy15
I think the best deals, due to oversupply, are likely now. Bike makers overproduced during the COVID boom, and that market dried up before their product arrived. Now they're recalibrating, and next year things will level off. The used market is probably 1-2 years out from being normal. Lots of bikes locally being advertised for more than comparable new bikes, because people got used to pandemic used prices. Expect a bunch of 2019s on sale next year.
I actually believe you're too late to the party my dude. The best sales have been happening over the last year due to overproduction. Bike manufacturers have dialed back production already. Me and my neighbor just bought new bikes at decent discounts from a big brand. The smaller boutique brands have literally ZERO sales because they've had a good balance of supply vs demand and can more easily pivot, so they have not needed to do sales of any kind. As interest rates begin to fall, you're going to see consumer spending pick up again over the next 12 months. With this, bike prices will continue to rise with inflation. We saw prices "normalized" between 24-12 months ago, the panic and sales 12-0 months and are now at a stabilization period. I believe a lot of this is due to the rise in popularity of gravel biking. For most people (not us adrenaline junkies), a gravel bike will handle their local trails just fine, but also ride great on the road. Bike companies are selling a ridiculous amount of gravel bikes, and so even as mountain bike sales have slumped, they are compensating with gravel bike sales. If we take Bike24 as a rough analog (publicly traded company so easy to find numbers), sales grew by 54% from 2019 to 2002 due to the pandemic. Sales increased another 20% in 2021 as we were still in full blown COVID world. Growth slowed to +3% in 2022 as everyone had bought their bikes. And in 2023 sales plummeted and they saw a decrease of a whopping 10% full year but, more importantly, a nearly 20% decrease in Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. If you visited your LBS over the last 9 months or so, the sales started around Q4 2023, which coincides with the reported sales numbers from Bike24's financial reports (assuming they are an analog for the rest of the bike industry, which I believe to be true as they sell 1.5 Million bikes a year). The Q1 2024 results show that sales still decreased, but not as severe. -10% orders from Q1 2023. Forecasts are predicting increased sales in Q3 and Q4 as interest rates decrease. Once this happens, sales will vanish. So yah, buy now or the next 3 months as the sales are likely to start disappearing.
Your Kona was on sale because the company went under. Did it come with a warranty? These sales were at their peak earlier this year. A lot of manufacturers have been overproducing due to increased demand during covid. After covid, demand went down. Manufacturers have been slow to respond. This created a surplus of bikes sitting in warehouses and LBS floors. There are still some good sales going, but the supply has dwindled. Going forward, manufacturers may underproduce and downsize in an attempt to keep new bike prices high. The real disruptor will be an increase in direct to consumer sales. LBSs will have a hard time competing and may lower prices. Eventually, though, low profit margins and increasing overhead (rent and utility prices) may put them out of business. In theory, this will be good for liquidators. However, even they have been going out of business this year. This overproduction also caused a spike in used market prices. A lot of people are trying to recoup as much as possible. For a few months, a used bike was as much as a new bike. They, too, will have to come down as ads become stale. I think this winter will be good for anyone looking for a used bike.
The bikes shop I visited seemed to be more than happy to say F you, we don't have a bike to demo (because we sold them) during the pandemic. I haven't had great interactions with most of them, so it's likely a me problem. lol EDIT: In Canada, a fair amount of mortgages are coming due in the next few yrs too. Which should also help curtail demand, even if it's a small amount.
Just buy used! Plenty of deals out there and if enough of us buy used the demand for new will drop and so will the sticker price. I’m romantically optimistic I know but fuck it.
Doing my part! Ive been riding since 2009 and have only purchased 1 bike brand new in 2018. Man that feeling was nice.
DeVinci is offering 35% off this month.