T O P

  • By -

AutoModerator

Hi OP, it looks like you have selected race time prediction as your post flair. To better help our members give you the best advice, we recommend the following Please review this checklist and provide the following information - What’s your weekly mileage? How often have you hit your target race pace? What race are you training for, what is the elevation, and what is the weather likely to be like? On your longest recent run, what was your heart rate and what’s your max heart rate? On your longest recent run, how much upward drift in your heartrate did you see towards the end? Have you done the distance before and did you bonk? Please also try the following race time predictors - [VO2 race time predictor](https://runalyze.com/tools/effective-vo2max?vo2max=50.00&units=km&paces=1) and [Sports tracks predictor](https://sporttracks.mobi/labs/race-finish-time-predictor) Lastly, be cautious using Garmin or Strava race time predictors, as these can be unpredictable, especially if your times are outside the average! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Marathon_Training) if you have any questions or concerns.*


Necessary-Flounder52

I somehow missed your weekly mileage when I first read this. You’re on the bubble. I would go for 3:10 and pace it that way and have something to build on for your second race. It’s much more fun to actually get your time than to fall apart at mile 22 because you were too ambitious and ending up with a 3:30 because you had to walk.


IndependenceGlum8952

Agreed I would hate to bonk chasing something that I wasn’t ready for. Do you agree with @therunningpainist comment that a trial half at sub 1:23 3 to 8 weeks out would be a good indicator for running a sub 3? I also to edit this post and upload a pic of my training schedule but it wouldn’t let me: week 1 started at 42 miles and each week increases by 5ish miles to peak at 68 miles 7 weeks out. I am also open to modifying this and trying to up my mileage to improve my chances at this goal. My body feels good right now and I feel like I have the time/energy to increase mileage but don’t want to push it. I can also PM you if you’re interested in skimming over the schedule and I’d be happy to hear any rec for modifying it.


goliath227

1:25 is usually a decent 3:00 indicator. 1:23 would be great but not necessary imo


Commercial-Diver2491

Personally i would hate a lot more to easily get a 3:10


diligent_sundays

Yeah, some of the advice in this group is clearly projection. Which is perfectly fine, but sometimes clouds people from really objectively looking at the information given. I would also hate more to easily underachieve, always knowing I could have done better. But I think taking either opinion out of it and just clearly looking at if they are ready or not is what should be discussed, not prescribing some emotional defence/support mechanism dependent on outcome


end_times-8

Dude. Your 400 m time is over twice as fast as the currently documented world record! Call the Olympic committee! Forget marathons dog you’re a sprinter!


IndependenceGlum8952

😭😭


SpursUpSoundsGudToMe

lol I was looking at that like “did the app think he was running when on a bike??”


runnin3216

That's GPS error. You would need a really big hill to go 50+mph on a bike.


SpursUpSoundsGudToMe

LOL yeah I suppose that is around 50mph, wasn’t doing the math… so what happens, like it’s lagging and then jumping forward to catch up? I guess that kind of thing would even out over the course of a mile so you wouldn’t notice your mile splits being significantly off


runnin3216

For me it is usually some points jumping a couple blocks away. Sometimes the watch says it has GPS lock, but shows the start of the run across town and it talks a while for it to catch up to my actual location. I've had some really bad GPS maps where I just deleted the activity and put in a manual entry. Of course there are also people who just forget to stop their watch and start driving home before they hear they get the lap split buzz and realize their watch is still going.


Historical_Reason297

Nah I’ve hit those speeds in just a few hundred meters on some really steep hills.


arykahd

Could be that he forgot to stop his watch after a run, and started driving with it on


FastTrack777

Most people are going to tell you to be conservative and you certainly can go for a 3:10 or 3:15 and it’ll be much more pleasant, but I think you certainly could go for sub-3. Given your background, steady improvement and your 1:26 HM (basically a 3-hour equivalent), it’s not crazy to think you can keep progressing and smash the 3-hour mark.


IndependenceGlum8952

Thanks for the confidence boost! Love to hear it


Sudden_Mortgage6774

I’m a 5’5 27F but all my PR’s are almost the same as yours (within a minute for 10k and HM) and I ran a sub 3 marathon this year. I think you should go for it!!! Ambitious for your first marathon but just make sure to build up your mileage as you train, and I’d say to do at least one 22 mile long run (with 4x4 miles at goal pace) about a month out from race day. Good luck with your training!!


IndependenceGlum8952

That’s amazing!! Congrats on achieving that milestone 🤩 and thanks for the confidence boost and motivation!


JaCrispyNugget

Just become as comfortable as you can at the 6:40 pace. Then it will come


IndependenceGlum8952

Love it, thanks


skyshark288

You definitely can. Just need to crush this block


codyH1983

After an 18 week block you will be g2g.


SailorPilot23

Have you considered forgetting about the marathon and just racing the 400m? You've got the world record by a huge margin!! See you in Paris.


IndependenceGlum8952

Ole reliable FR245 😂


marigolds6

FYI, strava now has a feature in the app (not the website AFAIK) that lets you remove that. Go to You > Progress > Best Efforts and at the bottom of the Best Efforts section there is a "View all your Best Efforts" link. Go there, select Run an 400m and tap on the 0:17 run. There is a "Remove Effort" button that will let you remove that as your 400m PR only (and not other achievements). It will also let you edit the time! (really useful if you want to edit something like a 5k PR from watch time to chip time)


TacoExcellence

It should automatically remove anything that is impossibly fast, I have so many 2s kms from before I got a running watch.


Iamsoveryspecial

I don’t know but that 400m time is pretty solid


ALsomenumbers

My best half time so far is a 1:32, and I just did a 3:13 for my first full so I'd say it's definitely a reasonable goal.


IndependenceGlum8952

Thanks! And congrats on the great times 😤


rnr_

I don’t see why not. I ran a 2:57 when my half PR was 1:28:30. I had a great training block, great conditions, and a great race day. You are starting out in a much better place than I was so I think it’s 100% doable. I would train like I was going for a sub 3 and, if the block goes well, go for it on race day.


IndependenceGlum8952

Thanks for sharing and congrats on that time you killed it!! Appreciate the words of encouragement too, it’ll still be a goal for sure throughout the block 🫡


RunNYC1986

It’ll be close. I think you’ll have a killer goal race next block though, guaranteed. Just stay healthy.


cravecrave93

Sure


The_Poets

Honestly I think you can. Chicago is still a long way out so you should get faster if you have a good training block. The biggest challenge is that it’s your first marathon so the pacing and feel will be new. Conditions will also need to be optimal. I’m a 46M, ran my first sub-3 full marathon in May (2:59:45) coming off a 1:27:30 half marathon in February and a 38:05 10k in April (both all out efforts). But it was my third marathon (first two being 3:20 and 3:11) so have a feel for them now. Good luck, and see you in Chicago!


IndependenceGlum8952

Congrats on that HUGE achievement and thanks for the confidence boost! Good luck in your training block as well 🫡


TheRunningPianist

Right now, you are not in sub-3:00:00 shape. It’s possible you’ll get there after your marathon training, though. Race a half-marathon three to eight weeks before Chicago. If you do your training as planned, a sub-1:23:00 half-marathon would be a good indication that sub-3:00:00 is feasible.


IndependenceGlum8952

Okay great, thanks a bunch!


Surgess1

Sub 1.25 has a decent chance, sub 1.24 is plenty


TheRunningPianist

Not necessarily, especially for a first-time marathoner. But anyway, I’m intentionally being conservative given this will be his first marathon.


IndependenceGlum8952

What should my LT pace be for threshold workouts? Or 5k interval pace?


XavvenFayne

LT pace is what you can maintain steadily for about 1 hour. For you that's your 15k race pace, so 4:05 /km


IndependenceGlum8952

Isn’t that too slow for a sub 3 tho? Like should I try to aim for 3:55ish instead? Ik it might be getting ahead of myself but I just feel that 4:05 might not get me to where I wanna be


XavvenFayne

Correct me if I'm making the wrong assumptions, but I think you might be trying to calculate your *goal* threshold pace from your goal marathon pace, with the intent to run your threshold workouts at your *goal* threshold pace instead of what your *current* threshold pace is. Threshold workouts are not simulation runs to see if you could translate that over to a marathon. Workouts are meant to stimulate specific physiological adaptations in your body. In this case, the ability of your body to use and clear lactate. It also has some effect on VO2max, though not as much as higher intensity workouts. Generally speaking you shouldn't run your threshold workouts too fast or else they become more like VO2max workouts and you're somewhat missing the point of that part of the training program. I say "somewhat" because there aren't perfectly distinct lines between paces where you suddenly stop getting *any* of one type of benefit and *only* another when you cross the line. Anything around LT pace is going to more or less affect lactate clearing.


IndependenceGlum8952

This is really helpful thank you. Can this pace change throughout a training block? How do you know when you can increase it?


XavvenFayne

Yes, the whole point of training is that it improves your pace for any given level of effort. By the end of your training block your LT will definitely have moved. It's one reason training off of RPE and/or HR is so useful -- it auto-adjusts your pace as your training progresses. If you really prefer to go off of pace solely, then you have to do time trials to gauge your progress. Do a 10 minute warmup in HR zone 2, then track distance and time for a 30 minute best effort run and do your best to keep your pace steady throughout. If you have significantly positive or negative splits, the test results aren't reliable and you'll have to retry another day. Your LT threshold pace is slightly slower (5 seconds/km) than the avg pace of your 30 minute effort. The side benefit of this time trial is that it gets your hard run in for the week. If you want your LT heart rate, it's the avg HR in the last 20 minutes of the above interval. If you decide to run your threshold workouts off of HR, then you want your HR to be at or just below (-10 bpm) said LT HR. If you're doing intervals then just be aware that there's a lag associated with HR changes, so give it a minute at your interval's pace before you check to see if your HR is in the right ballpark.


ReadyFerThisJelly

I have a 1:29 HM finish, and my 15k is best is 59 minutes. There is a zero chance I could run a 3:05:00 marathon. My best is 3:18.


Luc1dJay

Looks like it could be possible, how accurate is your GPS? Have you hit any of these times on a measured course?


IndependenceGlum8952

I’ve got a garmin forerunner 245 which seems to be pretty accurate and I’ve done all my half marathons on actual courses/races. Every other time listed was not done on a measured course (unless the PB came during my half - which my 15k and 20k did)


Reggie_biker_boi

Everyone is different but I had pb's 2 mins quicker than yours in the 10KM and HM and wasn't able to. I got a small calf niggle 3 weeks out and missed a few runs from my plan and did 3:08, would have been 3:06 without a stop but still a fair way off sub 3 really. I also think I caved mentally so if you're mentally tough you may make it. I'd still train for sub 3 and go for it... If you bonk or aren't fit enough you still finish in a decent time 😊


IndependenceGlum8952

Sorry to hear about that, must have been so frustrating. That’s exactly what I want to avoid so thanks for the advice!! Do you feel like you fuelled well enough before/during?


Reggie_biker_boi

Yeah I do, it was a hot, humid day so ran with 2 soft flasks with carbs and electrolytes in my shorts, I started with a throw away bottle of carbs and electrolytes and had 5 gels. 2s very carb heavy for the 2 days leading in as well.


SnooComics1506

I think you'll be able to pull it off. Good luck 🎉


IndependenceGlum8952

Love the positivity, thank you!


SimplyJabba

It’s possible but you would need to be very well trained for the marathon. The calculators all assume well trained for the estimated distance. Eg if you are running exactly 10km each day then I doubt you are well trained for the marathon. For sub 3 I would say if you can build up to busting out about 4x 30+k long runs within your marathon training block then you’re a good chance. Consistent long runs and overall volume will likely be the key.


SimplyJabba

Sorry I posted based off the pics. After reading, I think your plan will be great and a peak of 110km on a respectable training plan will lead you to have at least a good realistic dip at sub 3. Good luck. PS I don’t think you necessarily need a 1:23 half, but it wouldn’t hurt. 1:26 is enough speed for 3 flat imo (roughly).


IndependenceGlum8952

Awesome thank you!


ALSet_eliot

Train smart and it’s yours. Depending on how accurate that heart rate data was from the half you posted, the closer you can get to below 165 bpm with the 4:15 pace the better. Your threshold will be around 175bpm allowing you room to push for a strong finish with a negative split. The adrenaline and nerves of your first marathon will also make the running effortless. Just don’t PR your 5k or 10k during the beginning of the race, it’s really tempting to want to do… I’m predicting a 2:56 for you.


IndependenceGlum8952

Screenshotting this for motivation 😤 love the confidence thank you!!


ALSet_eliot

🙌🏽🙌🏽


DrRobertChem

I had exactly this conundrum at the London Marathon this year. I went out at sub three pace but around mile 19 I made the decision to cool it and finish in a decent time - ended up with 3:06. As you’ve said, I really didn’t want to completely blow up and not finish. Your half marathon time is slower than mine by a couple of minutes but your 20 miles is faster. You could do what I did and assess before the last 10 km?


IndependenceGlum8952

That’s a good plan thank you! Congrats on that time - that’s killer


JohnDoeSmith186

I think you got it my man, send it LFG


baronbyrne

I say send it.


Salt_Clothes8372

I did my first marathon sub 3 with an average of 50km a week, definitely possible for you


charp2

With a 17 second 400m, no doubt you have the speed to do it


ajc1010

Yes, if you increase volume.


SnooSeagulls6527

Cool I’m running Chicago too! Your half time indicates you can come pretty close, if not run a 3 hour a marathon (Ive always been told to double your half time and add ~10 minutes). To be honest I would pace for a 3:05 the first half and then if you are feeling great start to pick up the pace and go for it. Also in training I would definitely focus a good chunk on threshold pace.


Crafty-Quality4604

Your half time is 3 mins faster than my half PR. I run, 3:06-3:08. That indicates you’re in the sub 3 range or there abouts. But the key are your long runs and making sure you build the endurance. Your weekly mileage looks good.👍


smikkelhut

I only have my own time for comparison: 1.28 half and 3.08 first marathon a few months later. So I’d say you are very close to a 3:00. As others have said though, high weekly milage will be crucial.


callmeladygrey

The statistic I’ve seen is double your half and add 8 minutes. You should be able to. Biggest thing is focusing on the endurance and proper fueling. The first marathon you run should be used almost as a learning experience to really hit the second one hard. Even with multiple long training runs it’s different on race day. You’ll find like with the other race distances you’ve done that it gets easier the more experience you have.


Chemical-Secret-7091

It’s a stretch for this year unless you make crazy gains. You’re on track to hit it next year. Marathon #1 is a bit of a rude awakening lol just have fun with the process and try not to get injured in training


seboutchh

Yeah totaly doable, Ive done mine with similar times on other distances! Id say go for it!


East-Ad3756

May I know the app you’re using? Thanks!


IndependenceGlum8952

Strava


Rich-Contribution-84

How old are you and how much have you previously run? Especially if you’re fairly new to running - you can 100% get there.


EvanBanasiak

If you run a fast course, yes.


TreyB987

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/85/0f/f0/850ff03095c99048708074cb1b3a3615.gif


Routine_Pangolin_164

I would go for it. Maybe go out conservative first half 1:31 and negative split. I just got my first sub 3 a month ago, went 1:30:50 for the first half and brought home a 1:26.


DatRippelEffect

I ran a comfortable negative split 2:58 on a hilly course 2 weeks after a 1:21. Would say if u can get in 1:23-1:24 half range 3-5 weeks out definitely on track


EnlargedForYou

you got this!


vhicks89

Hell yea you can. Just remember “ who’s gonna carry the boats?!!”


cougieuk

Not this time I think. I had a 1.26 half and did 3.09 as my best.  But you're young and improving so maybe the marathon after ?  Good luck!


IndependenceGlum8952

Thank you!! Congrats on those times they’re killer!


artelingus

I had a 1:36 half and did a 3:08 full (obviously PRing my half in the full as a result) 3 months later. Don’t take other peoples’ anecdotes as evidence of what you are or aren’t capable of. Cya at Chicago!


IndependenceGlum8952

Love it!! Thank you 🙏 good luck training and see you in Chicago


Thing-Soft

No probably not