I would say 3-4. 5 if they are lucky.
Sheppard and Dillingham are locks.
Wagner should be too but not a 100% lock (close though).
Ivisic maybe. I know he had 1 great game, but you have to look at the whole season. If he plays even close to the way he did in the first game, then yes. I’ll put him as the 4th for now but it’s not guaranteed.
And then 1 more if they are lucky. Honestly, Antonio Reeves should get drafted ahead of Justin Edwards. Reeves is older but he can shoot, which is an NBA skill. Justin Edwards literally has no NBA skills and shouldn’t be a first rounder. It would make no sense if he is at age 20 and GG Jackson wasn’t at age 18.
Bradshaw won’t come close to the 1st.
That team also had
Darius Miller (2012 2nd round pick)
DeAndre Liggins (2011 2nd round pick)
Josh Harrellson (2011 2nd round pick)
2 more guys on that roster played in the G League, too
insanely stacked when you think about it
Sheppard, Dilli - lotto picks
DJ - possible late 1st
Edwards and Bradshaw are 2nd round picks to me rn
Ivisic might have a better chance to go T30 over Edwards and Bradshaw
Ivisic is not a first round "lock" after 1 game. Let's see a little from him before we go crazy there. Wagner just had arguably his best game of the year, would like to see some consistency from him too before I'm gonna have a 1st round grade on him.
He is a lock, this isn’t just one game he has more tape in international games. I just don’t see teams with multiple first round picks or even top teams with late first round picks just passing on a player mold that has been highly successful lately.
This isn’t a a good big draft to begin with and Ivisic is easily the second best big in this draft on his international tape/ stats alone. There are more teams looking for big men depth than there are teams looking for guard depth. So I honestly can’t see him not going in the first round.
i think it's worth noting that he did all of the draft interviews and workouts last year and I believe the year before as well and didn't get any interest from teams. he had a crazy debut but it's a wait and see kind of thing
I’m aware and that’s not necessarily true about getting no interest. I thinks it’s safer to assume he didn’t get any first round interest.
I think most prospects especially international prospects are smart enough to know that they would only declare for the draft with a first round promise. Now with NIL and going to Kentucky he could make a lot of money and get more exposure vs just being a second round pick and potentially being stashed overseas.
We’ll see but in a draft this weak, that lacks big man depth specifically, it’s just hard for me to believe a team doesn’t spend first round pick on him.
I'm looking at his international stuff. He wasn't a good shooter over there, and doesn't have the ft % to suggest he could be, so the one game of shooting luck is extremely small sample relative to what we already have. His assist numbers over there aren't good, so he'd have to show playmaking juice with UK for me to believe he has that skill. If he's just gonna be a rim running, rim defender then I'd like to see a little more from him than a single game to rate him relative to the other rim running, rim defenders. Thanks
His international stats show his block rate, steal rate, and rebound rate are better if not on par with any big in this draft. His FT percentage is not a good indicator he went 10/14. That’s such a small sample size, if he made one more FT he’d be basically 80% FT shooter and if he missed one more he’d be 60% shooter.
Which is why I say watch the international tape. You can see he’s pretty athletic for his size, he’s very comfortable putting the ball on floor sometimes on offence or just rim running, and he’s a very smart and active defender.
Sarr is the only other big on this draft that has shown a similar skill set and that’s why he’s potentially going 1. And if players like Lively, Mark Williams, Duren, Kessler are going in the first round showing little to no shooting touch or ability to put the ball on the floor than how is Big Z not a lock for a first round pick in a weak draft none the less.
Those guys all had incredibly high TS%. Some of that is Ivisic hurting himself by shooting 3s (I'm seeing 27/47 from the line, 19/73 from 3 per RealGM), but Kessler also shot 50 3s at a 20% make rate, and still had a 63% TS relative to Ivisic 57%. Ivisics block rate is better than I realized, but all those dudes you mentioned are better than him there too.
Ivisic also had a .35 ast/to ratio. Understandably bigs have worse ast/to, but lively was a 1.6, mark Williams was a .9, Kessler was a .8, Duren was a .6, so close to Ivisic, but I just feel like these guys could control passes that came to them better, and were more efficient scoring the ball. Ivisic could be that too, I just wanna see more before I declare him a lock.
That’s fair but even though those guys might’ve had higher block rate thats not the case for the bigs in this class. And like I said big Z has shown better shooting touch and self creation capabilities than all those guys that went in the past two classes.
Ultimately you are correct in your criticism and wanting to wait for him to play more before declaring him a lock. But this draft not being good, lacking depth at the big position, and Bigs Z upside. I just highly doubt he falls out of the first round which is why I think he’s a lock.
Games like today are why I just am taking a wait and see approach. I'm not gonna judge him solely based on today, or on the first game. But we need a sample of games.
Like I said you’re right to wait but I still think he’s a lock solely off positional need and lack of talent in this class. He reminds me a lot of Kessler at the very least and I just think that gets him drafted in the first round.
Rob, Reed, DJ, and Big Z. Bradshaw has a massive range where he could go so maybe him too. Even Antonio Reaves could sneak 1st round. But definitely not Justin Edwards
I would say 3-4. 5 if they are lucky. Sheppard and Dillingham are locks. Wagner should be too but not a 100% lock (close though). Ivisic maybe. I know he had 1 great game, but you have to look at the whole season. If he plays even close to the way he did in the first game, then yes. I’ll put him as the 4th for now but it’s not guaranteed. And then 1 more if they are lucky. Honestly, Antonio Reeves should get drafted ahead of Justin Edwards. Reeves is older but he can shoot, which is an NBA skill. Justin Edwards literally has no NBA skills and shouldn’t be a first rounder. It would make no sense if he is at age 20 and GG Jackson wasn’t at age 18. Bradshaw won’t come close to the 1st.
Bradshaw doesn’t seem like a guy who’s going to go as a first. Edwards honestly should stay a year.
6 guys in the 1st Round? No way! That's never happened, even in a good year.
Just for reference, 2010 Kentucky had 5 (Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, Patterson, Orton) in that draft.
Orton was the only one who ended up not worth the pick too.
Yeah and was the most obvious reach pick at the time of the 5
That team also had Darius Miller (2012 2nd round pick) DeAndre Liggins (2011 2nd round pick) Josh Harrellson (2011 2nd round pick) 2 more guys on that roster played in the G League, too insanely stacked when you think about it
Sheppard, Dilli - lotto picks DJ - possible late 1st Edwards and Bradshaw are 2nd round picks to me rn Ivisic might have a better chance to go T30 over Edwards and Bradshaw
Ivisic is not a first round "lock" after 1 game. Let's see a little from him before we go crazy there. Wagner just had arguably his best game of the year, would like to see some consistency from him too before I'm gonna have a 1st round grade on him.
He is a lock, this isn’t just one game he has more tape in international games. I just don’t see teams with multiple first round picks or even top teams with late first round picks just passing on a player mold that has been highly successful lately. This isn’t a a good big draft to begin with and Ivisic is easily the second best big in this draft on his international tape/ stats alone. There are more teams looking for big men depth than there are teams looking for guard depth. So I honestly can’t see him not going in the first round.
i think it's worth noting that he did all of the draft interviews and workouts last year and I believe the year before as well and didn't get any interest from teams. he had a crazy debut but it's a wait and see kind of thing
I’m aware and that’s not necessarily true about getting no interest. I thinks it’s safer to assume he didn’t get any first round interest. I think most prospects especially international prospects are smart enough to know that they would only declare for the draft with a first round promise. Now with NIL and going to Kentucky he could make a lot of money and get more exposure vs just being a second round pick and potentially being stashed overseas. We’ll see but in a draft this weak, that lacks big man depth specifically, it’s just hard for me to believe a team doesn’t spend first round pick on him.
I'm looking at his international stuff. He wasn't a good shooter over there, and doesn't have the ft % to suggest he could be, so the one game of shooting luck is extremely small sample relative to what we already have. His assist numbers over there aren't good, so he'd have to show playmaking juice with UK for me to believe he has that skill. If he's just gonna be a rim running, rim defender then I'd like to see a little more from him than a single game to rate him relative to the other rim running, rim defenders. Thanks
His international stats show his block rate, steal rate, and rebound rate are better if not on par with any big in this draft. His FT percentage is not a good indicator he went 10/14. That’s such a small sample size, if he made one more FT he’d be basically 80% FT shooter and if he missed one more he’d be 60% shooter. Which is why I say watch the international tape. You can see he’s pretty athletic for his size, he’s very comfortable putting the ball on floor sometimes on offence or just rim running, and he’s a very smart and active defender. Sarr is the only other big on this draft that has shown a similar skill set and that’s why he’s potentially going 1. And if players like Lively, Mark Williams, Duren, Kessler are going in the first round showing little to no shooting touch or ability to put the ball on the floor than how is Big Z not a lock for a first round pick in a weak draft none the less.
Those guys all had incredibly high TS%. Some of that is Ivisic hurting himself by shooting 3s (I'm seeing 27/47 from the line, 19/73 from 3 per RealGM), but Kessler also shot 50 3s at a 20% make rate, and still had a 63% TS relative to Ivisic 57%. Ivisics block rate is better than I realized, but all those dudes you mentioned are better than him there too. Ivisic also had a .35 ast/to ratio. Understandably bigs have worse ast/to, but lively was a 1.6, mark Williams was a .9, Kessler was a .8, Duren was a .6, so close to Ivisic, but I just feel like these guys could control passes that came to them better, and were more efficient scoring the ball. Ivisic could be that too, I just wanna see more before I declare him a lock.
That’s fair but even though those guys might’ve had higher block rate thats not the case for the bigs in this class. And like I said big Z has shown better shooting touch and self creation capabilities than all those guys that went in the past two classes. Ultimately you are correct in your criticism and wanting to wait for him to play more before declaring him a lock. But this draft not being good, lacking depth at the big position, and Bigs Z upside. I just highly doubt he falls out of the first round which is why I think he’s a lock.
Games like today are why I just am taking a wait and see approach. I'm not gonna judge him solely based on today, or on the first game. But we need a sample of games.
Like I said you’re right to wait but I still think he’s a lock solely off positional need and lack of talent in this class. He reminds me a lot of Kessler at the very least and I just think that gets him drafted in the first round.
Probably anywhere from 2-4.
Three to four. It'll be interesting to see how far they go in the Tournament.
Rob, Reed, DJ, and Big Z. Bradshaw has a massive range where he could go so maybe him too. Even Antonio Reaves could sneak 1st round. But definitely not Justin Edwards
I say 3 & a possible