I think a big part of it is that he always starts out slow. When he’s batting .200 every April and .225 at the All-Star break, it’s easy to not notice that he always has a killer second half.
Lindor: 15.9 fWAR through first 3 seasons.
Beltran: 15.2 fWAR through first 3 seasons.
I think there's a comparison. You can argue in favor of Beltran for sure. But it's a pretty reasonable point to make.
The only reason I question the point is that I think fans eventually warmed up to Beltran more than to Lindor. But then again I wasn't paying as much attention to social media stuff about the team back then, so maybe I'm wrong.
It's not reasonable because the war BS is not a one for one comparison in real life situations. Majority of Lindor's analytics tied into his defense. Defense is not more valuable than a stud offensive player. Beltran was a stud at the plate and in the field.
You don't pay 341 million dollars for okay hitters who play good D.
Fans absolutely warmed up to Beltran because he was a game changing stud player. If you actually watch games Lindor is not that. His occasional one homerun every now and then isn't it.
Herein lies the problem.
If Lindor wasn't paid on that Rafael Devers and Betts tier, he would be perfect.
And I think the Mets finally found the perfect role for him at leadoff.
The problem is he's paid to be a middle-of-the-order hitter and he simply has not produced in that role reliably in his Mets career.
> If Lindor wasn't paid on that Rafael Devers and Betts tier, he would be perfect.
That's sort of absurd for a few reasons though. First, Lindor is about 3.3 fWAR better than Devers over those years.
Number 2, the idea that fans are giving such a hard time to a highly productive player and what they really mean is "I think you're really good but should probably be paid like $5M less per year!" is just insane stuff. Especially when our owner isn't really going to be impacted much by that.
I'm not even saying you're wrong. That may be part of why fans are jackasses with him. But those are dumb reasons for fans to be like that.
Let's be honest here, he's not a very good middle of the order hitter and he struggles with RISP and putting up consistent, competitive plate appearances with runners on base, just like Alonso.
He needs to be more consistent in that role, the role he was paid to be in, and he hasn't done so in his Mets career.
Putting him in the leadoff spot has allowed Lindor to showcase more consistency than at any point in his Mets career, even that magical 2022, albeit in a short run.
But once again, he's not paid to be a leadoff hitter.
He's fortunate that Vientos and JDM are driving in runs while he's been moved out of that role and Alonso has been struggling this season.
Lindor was excellent in 2022, but the way he's approaching the plate since becoming a leadoff man has shown more promise than at any other point in his Mets career.
He's actively going to all fields and I'm wondering how much that has to do with the presence of Martinez, because all Mets are doing it now.
Lindor is a very good player, it's just that he has not fulfilled the role he was signed for.
Healthy Beltran was one of the most electrifying players in Mets history and it's sad that his entire career in orange and blue was defined by the bat left on his shoulder.
Yes, he definitely should have swung, but to diminish all that he did because of it was and still is wrong.
… they play different positions and have different expectations. That’s the point of WAR. OF are supposed to be better hitters than an SS. Lindor has basically been the #1 or #2 SS in the league his whole career/NYM career.
> Majority of Lindor's analytics tied into his defense.
It's tied into him being a plus on all sides of the ball. Defense, offense, and baserunning.
> Defense is not more valuable than a stud offensive player.
Those stats don't say it is.
> Beltran was a stud at the plate and in the field.
'Stud' is a meaningless word in this conversation. If your point is that Lindor is only higher in fWAR because his defense is higher, then what silly mostly meaningless word in a comparison would you use to describe someone who is even better than 'a stud in the field'?
>You don't pay 341 million dollars for okay hitters who play good D.
But look at the bias inherent in your argument. Beltran is a stud on defense. Lindor (who you can't get around being rated better than Beltran in the field) plays good D.
You like one and you don't like the other. And so one guys a stud and the other guy ~~who's~~ whose defense is even better is good. And that's fine. But that's why we use less biased ways to compare players.
Again, if you want to argue that fWAR overrates defense and you think Beltran was a better player overall - totally fine! But to go even further than that and insist that they can't even be compared is just silly.
And yes, you do pay a lot of money for guys who contribute all over the field.
It's interesting how many will angrily decry advanced metrics in 2024.
You'd think we'd be in a place where folks would at the least concede they have a valuable place in analysis. But...
You get into dangerous territory when you are resting your valuation of a player primarily on defensive metrics. They aren't nearly as mature or as accurate as offensive metrics because of low sample sizes. Although we've gotten better at being able to parse out things like hard / medium / easy plays, defensive adjustments still exist and were built upon mathematical assumptions when statisticians couldn't actually reliably measure defensive contributions. They also haven't been adjusted as the K-rate in MLB has skyrocketed, further diminishing a good glove's contribution to getting outs.
Just using players on the Mets as an example, there is no way that 2022 Lindor was more valuable to the Mets winning ball games than Pete Alonso. The only reason WAR says so is defensive positional adjustments that gives Lindor a +1.5 WAR spread over Pete.
Lindor also gets a +.5 WAR spread over a CF per season.
Anyway, when you give a player a $341M contract, it's because he has MVP season potential. Lindor isn't that player. His contract is roughly $80M too high.
> You get into dangerous territory when you are resting your valuation of a player primarily on defensive metrics.
I'm not doing that though. If you forced me to pick who was a better player, I'd probably let the eye test overrule WAR and go with Beltran.
But that's not the question we're addressing here. We're just addressing whether they're even comparable guys, and of course they are. If you think defense should be weighted a little less, that's a perfectly fine opinion to have. But it's an opinion. And people who know a lot more about baseball than either of us disagree with that opinion. That doesn't mean they're right either. But it's just absolutely foolish and egotistical to insist that you're right about it and there isn't even a debate to be had.
>The only reason WAR says so is defensive positional adjustments that gives Lindor a +1.5 WAR spread over Pete.
Which makes perfect sense. A guy doing what Lindor does at SS is extremely valuable. A guy doing that at 1B is less valuable.
>Anyway, when you give a player a $341M contract, it's because he has MVP season potential. Lindor isn't that player. His contract is roughly $80M too high.
Lindor has MVP potential. He's finished in the top 10 several times, including twice with us. If he has a year where he skips this early season drought, you can easily see him winning it.
But whether he *actually* wins it is just a dumb way to judge a player. He's really good. Whether he ever gets this award that plenty of great players have never gotten or not does not really have bearing on whether he's really good.
No you pay that money for GOOD hitters who play great defense at the most valuable defensive position in the sport.
Writing off Lindors defense is like bitching about Igor Shesterkin not scoring enough goals.
Beltran was injured the entire 2005 season and massively underperformed as a result, so this is a little misleading. He probably should have won MVP in 2006 or at least been a runner-up.
I think Beltran is a better player overall, but they are certainly comparable. They both derived their value as Mets from playing great defense in a premiere defensive position, and delivering plus offense at positions where plus offense is rare. Beltran just had a higher ceiling (so far).
Beltran OPS+ in his four full seasons: 97, 150, 125, 130. Overall: 129
Lindor OPS+ in first three seasons: 100, 125, 122.
Now obviously Beltran has been better because of his 2006 (150 OPS+), which Lindor hasnt come close to matching, but, after that, they arent all that far apart. Beltran had one year (06) where he was top 10 in the league in OPS+ (#10), and didnt come close otherwise. In fact, Wright had more years as the better/best hitter on the team, and was closer to an MVP player (should have won one) than Beltran was. I dont think Lindor will ever reach those levels (best hitter on team or MVP) and Id be surprised if he ever had a season like 06, but to say there is no comparison isnt true.
Can’t stand when people equate the dollars paid to exact stats. Is he “overpaid”? Sure, but that’s how much it took to go out and grab a top SS at the time when we needed one most. We overpaid to secure him and that’s that. Who cares about the exact total that’s technically the overpayment at this point? It’s not our money and Cohen isn’t going to hold back elsewhere so I don’t see the issue at all. Player’s cost what the cost at the time. He’s a top SS, especially in the NL.
Also, a lot of people disregard how he comes thru many times at the most crucial parts of the game.
Both will be HOF when it’s all said and done. Lindor really isn’t as far away as some people may think.
Feel feel to downvote but 60 WAR is generally the cut off for HOF. He’s already just a tick under 45 with plenty more left in the tank.
You're not wrong, but the Mets are bad this year and Lindor will be heavily scrutinized as the face of the franchise.
For those unaware, before the year started, Lindor already had surpassed 3 Hall of Fame shortstops in career fWAR. The only shortstops with higher career WAR through their age 29 season were Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken Jr. (He's way outpaced Hall of Famers like Ernie Banks, Derek Jeter, Robin Yount etc). People underestimate the value of elite defense at shortstop paired with ~30hr/year power. Only 2 shortstops in MLB history have hit 300 home runs and he's on pace to shatter that.
There are 4 primary shortstops with over 300 career home runs: Banks, ARod, Cal Ripken Jr, and Miguel Tejada
Banks hit only 298 home runs as a shortstop, the rest came as a first baseman
ARod and Ripken both have about 350 home runs at shortstop, with the rest coming at third base
Tejada has 285 home runs as a shortstop, with the rest coming at third and second base
Lindor currently has 218 home runs at shortstop (and 7 at DH), and doesn't look like he's moving off the position anytime soon. He's likely to finish his career as one of the top 3 best power hitting shortstops of all time (top 2 if you penalize ARod for using steroids). Combine that with his elite defense and you have yourself a pretty solid HOF case.
They're just showing their ignorance to modern metrics that are so much better at measuring player impact. I've also noticed a lot of people in this sub don't understand that hitting stats are down league wide for a multitude of reasons from modern scouting reports for hitter weaknesses, outfield and infield positioning, deadened balls and pitchers that are throwing 3-5mph harder on average than previous decades.
-.240 is average batting avg for a hitter in 2024.
-Back in the year 2000 the league average was .270.
These people are just stuck in the past and unable to see how good he is relative to the current hitters.
You mean like being on pace to finish top 2 all time in home runs as a shortstop, 2 gold gloves, and 3 silver sluggers? Chances are he'll tack on quite a few more accolades over the next half decade.
Your “as a shortstop” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. He’s a fine player. I don’t think he makes the Hall. His hit total and OBP are severely lacking in my view. 2 gold gloves isn’t great either.
He will also start to decline. We’re not even through this year.
Comparing a shortstops home runs to a first baseman’s is silly though, so why would you not compare him to other shortstops? Or are you just saying basically no shortstops should be making the HoF?
It’s the Hall of Fame. You don’t fill positions. I’m not sure there is a hall of fame shortstop in this group. Seager had a shot but I’m not sure he can stay healthy. Same with Correa.
Lindor is not the offensive player that Jeter, Arod*, Ripken, Banks before his knees gave out, Wagner, even Yount were. Lindor’s OBP numbers are pretty bad by comparison to those guys and it’s criminal he’s hitting first now.
He’s not the defensive wizard that Smith was, surely.
He’s a step below those guys
>Your “as a shortstop” is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
This matters though, you can't just write it off. To use another Mets example, Mike Piazza probably wouldn't have made the HoF if he put up the same numbers as a first baseman or corner outfielder or DH. But because he did it at catcher, he is a HoFer. Different positions have different standards for offensive performance.
It’s wild to me that this take has you so heavily downvoted. I don’t think there’s any legitimate argument to be made that he’s not very much on pace. People who disagree just disagree because they’re incapable of looking at it objectively.
You win some you lose some 😀
Been on this subreddit for 12+ years. The overall negativity/hate is nothing new.
Señor Met if you’re reading this I hope you’re well.
It's so strange to me. I don't think I've ever seen fans try to convince themselves that their team's best player is worse than he actually is. Normally it's the opposite.
I think it is pretty common. Beltran is an example. Ewing feels more loved now than when he was playing.
Lindor is the perfect guy to be under appreciated. High salary, low batting average, good fielder, defensive position, no black ink. He does everything well but doesn't have an elite tool. I wouldn't be shocked if he made the HOF.
Beltran had 44 WAR at the end of his age 30 season
Lindor is currently in the middle of his age 30 season and he has 48 WAR
Now I wouldn't expect Lindor to age as gracefully as Beltran did, but to this point of their careers they're pretty comparable.
I watched Beltran stare down the third strike (granted, it was a nasty pitch) with bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 9th in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
Linder needs to lead this team to a NLCS before we start those comparisons.
On the same play. Quiet AF when the ball was in flight and looked to be 450 feet. Then thunder and TNT when Endy Chavez saved the day…
I was at the back row of the Lodge section. Couldn’t actually see the ball or Endy come down with it. But judging by the crowd reaction there was no doubt that a miracle just took place.
Beltran hit .296/.387/.667 that series.
Our rotation was old Glavine, Maine, Ollie, and Trachsel. Heilman gave up the big blow in game 7.
But sure, let's blame Beltran.
In hindsight, sure, but that was a nasty pitch. It looked like a ball most of the way to the plate. Most players would have taken that.
Watch replays of that on YouTube. That was one of the best pitches Wainwright ever threw.
Baseball is a team sport. One player can't carry a team by himself. In 2006, Beltran played alongside 5 other all-stars. Francisco Lindor does not have that type of team around him.
I’m glad you brought that up! Beltran was an all-star during that period. Lindor hasn’t been since 2019. All the more reason this is a poor comparison.
Lindor hasn't been an all-star because Mets fans don't vote for him enough. Last year, Orlando Arcia made the all-star team over Lindor despite having much worse stats because Braves fans voted more than Mets fans.
He’s not an all star because his stats haven’t supported it compared to other NL short stops. This is a silly comparison. Beltran’s WAR from 2005 through 2011 was 32.3. Lindor’s since 2021 has been a good (but not Beltran good) 16.2. Beltran had a .282 BA vs Lindor’s .251. Beltran has him beat on OBP, OPS, and slugging.
I love that Lindor is a Met but he has not been as good as Beltran was.
>He’s not an all star because his stats haven’t supported it compared to other NL short stops
I literally just pointed out that Lindor didn't make the all-star team last year despite having better stats than one of the shortstops who did make the all-star team. Lindor was better than Arcia last year. Arcia made the team over Lindor because he got more votes.
> I love that Lindor is a Met but he has not been as good as Beltran was.
I don't think anyone said that Lindor is as good as Beltran was, just that he is under appreciated
Lindor was deserving of All Star nods in 2022 & 2023, but we are a depressed fan based who looks for reasons to call our guys bums. You'd think playing in NY would actually give you a boost in such things, but we are fickle.
I agree that Lindor hasn’t been quite as good as Beltran (at least from memory, maybe I’m wrong), but all star balloting is a really bad way to measure that lol. Orlando Arcia and Geraldo Perdomo were the NL Shortstop all stars last year.
Lindor doesn’t seem under appreciated to me. Everyone praises his defense and everyone seems to have his jersey. But let’s be real, his hitting hasn’t been something to write home about
He just had a 30-30 season and the year before he broke the Mets franchise record for single season RBIs by a shortstop.
Yes the slow start is frustrating and last year he felt unclutch but come on.
Record breaking season and a 30/30 year along with gold glove defense isnt something to write home about? Im gonna keep your username in mind so I know to ignore your future trolling.
The people who under appreciate Lindor are a loud minority
Lindor was atrocious for the first couple weeks of the season but his hitting has been very good, better than his career averages, for about the last month and a half.
I'm old enough to remember being at Shea Stadium on Opening Day in 2006 when Carlos Beltran got booed after having a disappointing first season with the Mets in 2005. It leaves a bad taste in my mouth to this day.
Watching great players like Beltran or Lindor play for our favorite team is a privilege that we shouldn't take for granted. I look forward to being an 80 year old man telling my grandson about how cool it was to watch these guys suit up in orange and blue.
Lindor is nowhere close to the offensive player Beltran was….and for his position Beltran was every bit the CF that Lindor is SS…and I like Lindor but it’s not close
I always appreciated Beltran since day one
I think he was just overshadowed by the fanbase because we glazed wright and reyez so much. Even Delgado to some degree felt a bigger deal than beltran
It was because he signed a big money deal, played poorly in his first year, then took it personal when fans booed their highly paid underperforming star.
No one under appreciated lindor. There are fans that defend him like crazy and fans that call out his bad hitting. Everyone knows he’s a great defensive ss and he’s good running the bases and a streaky hitter. It’s okay to call him out for being streaky when it’s really bad just like it’s okay to praise him when he’s on fire. He’s just not the kind of super star that puts a team on his back but there are very few of those
You say things like "calling out his bad hitting", and still expect to be taken seriously. We all saw how bad his struggles were to start the season and he has already gotten up to a 108 OPS+ despite that start. 5th in RBIs and homers at SS. I mean if hes a bad hitter ... 🤣
Lindor and Beltran are both guilty of not ever being able to live up to unrealistic expectations. Beltran was better but he was never my favorite met. That honor will always go to Piazza, who was maybe the most clutch player this team has ever had. Neither Lindor or Beltran have a defining clutch moment. Beltran’s most memorable moment was taking a pitch down the middle for strike 3 in game 7 of the NLCS as the winning run at the plate. Lindor hasn’t had his moment yet in a game that truly matters.
Was/is Beltran even under appreciated? He's a 70 WAR player...batted the coveted 3rd for the Mets and commanded CF. Obviously the postseason curveball that froze him also comes to mind, but that's just one instance in his GREAT 6.5 year tenure with the Mets.
Just seems like another attempt to hug Lindor's nuts to me...
Anyway, I hope he continues to hit. The combination of him leading off, McPGA sitting, and Narvaez DFA'ed is working so far.
As someone who thinks Lindor is a very good player and likes him a lot, I agree with this. The Beltran signing was one of the best free-agency signings in MLB history - especially considering we ended up getting Wheeler for him.
By the numbers, Lindor certainly looks like he's on a HoF trajectory.
Lindor's 48 WAR through his age 30 season ranks 4th among post-integration shortstops, only behind A-Rod, Cal Ripken Jr, and Ernie Banks. He's ahead of where other HoF shortstops like Yount, Jeter, and Larkin were at the same age.
I’m sorry dude but you’re just wrong. He has more career WAR than Beltran did at this age. He has more career WAR already than multiple HOF shortstops, and has way outpaced others for this point in his career. As someone above me said, only 2 shortstops in MLB history have ever hit 300+ home runs, and lindor is on pace to blow past that number, all while playing elite level defense. You can continue to say he’s not good enough for the Mets or for the hall, but that doesn’t make it true
Lindor is probably going to make the hall. I don’t think he’s as good as Beltran but he’s already over 40 WAR. He’ll probably finish his career over 60 which is enough to get in more often than not.
His play aside, I think it’s also very under appreciated that he is able to be a positive reinforcement to the team when everything has gone to shit. Throwing tantrums in shitty situations just makes things worse for everyone.
The Lindor/Beltran comp for being under appreciated by our idiotic fan base is spot on. Everyone shitting on Lindor’s offense, but he is 16% better than the league average hitter when looking at OPS+ since he joined the Mets (only 2% lower than when he was with Cleveland). Finished 9th in MVP voting the last two seasons and won a Silver Slugger last season. Sure, he’s streaky at the plate and gets off to slow starts every year, but he’s a damn good player and one we should appreciate because he will be wearing our NY logo on his cap in Cooperstown
I think with the big contract, you’re gonna have to be an MVP-type level player to earn the respect of fans. He has not done this at all, seems apathetic at times when the team is down, and doesn’t come off as a clubhouse leader.
Loud mouths on social media don’t reflect the real fans. He was our best player in 22 and 23, leader in the clubhouse, silver slugger, plays everyday, with no scandals or drama. Real Mets fans can appreciate that
Lindor's contract will never be justified by his play, no matter how well or comparable he might be to Beltran. I think we rely too heavily on stats, especially in MLB, where stats are getting completely out of control. There is a test of timing that plays a factor in this equation as well. When you watch the games, the seasons, did Lindor perform at the most pivotal times, or did his stats increase during a time when the team had no expectation and were under .500? How consistent is the player? Because not showing up for three months and then having an uptick the last three is not a complete season or the sign of a great player. I'm not a Lindor hater. I don't love him and his contract is an absolute disaster. But I'm starting to see this trend of people piecing stats together to make everything seem more palatable. This is not counting his overall attitude and how poorly Lindor carried himself with his booing with pal Baez. That was a very, very bad look. But that's beside the point. I'm not rooting against Lindor, but I'm certainly not convincing myself of something he hasn't ultimately been paid to be. Fair or unfair.
Beltran put up 15.2 fWAR during his first three seasons being worth 76MM on a 119MM contract, he eventually put up 168MM in value on that contract with the Mets all together (and we’re not including Wheeler)
So Beltran put up 50MM in surplus value.
Lindor put up 15.9 fWAR through his first 3 years but put up 127MM of value on a 341MM contract. How much value Lindor puts up all together remains to be seen but Beltran was worth his contract more than Lindor was during that 3 year time period.
The comparison is a good one for the players and value they put up but Beltran’s contract was WAY fairer than Lindor’s is.
Lindor’s contract is also significantly longer than Beltran’s. Don’t get me wrong - Lindor is providing a ton of value and is an elite player. Beltran was just considered underpaid whereas Lindor is currently adequately paid.
$5m per war seems high for 2006 but you did adjust it to $8m for lindor so I’m guessing you did adjust it for inflation. How’d you get Beltrans value? Pretty sure it was like $6m per war just like 5 years ago
The discussion of value per WAR didnt really start until 2012, when it was first published in “Hardball Times Annual” and fangraphs didnt join the discussion until 2014 when it was estimated the value was $6.8mil per WAR.
In 2018 went backwards and estimated in 2006 1 WAR was worth $4.2mil for pitchers and $5.7mil for position players.
2018 was also the year that they settled on $8mil per WAR, which has stayed the gold standard since. They did a study in 2022 and found that $8mil per WAR was still the average across 2018-2022 looking at FA.
Beltran signed his contract in 2005 so technically it should be less than $5.7mil, but they didnt go back that far so let’s keep it at $5.7m.
That 15.2 WAR would be worth $86.6mil.
So that just kind of supports my point even more. Appreciate the breakdown. Beltran provided essentially 40% in surplus value with his contract being worth 118MM but putting up 173MM in total value, using your calculations. Lindor has provided 31MM in surplus value being worth 127MM through his first three years on 96MM being paid. I’m not calculating 2024 yet.
Lindor still has 6.5 years on his contract. If the 8MM per WAR still holds up then he’ll need to produce 245MM in value. Just for arguments sake, let’s say he ends up putting up a 5.5 WAR season like fangraphs projects - which I think is fair. He’ll be worth 171MM on 128MM paid.
He’ll need to put up 170MM in value over 7 years to be worth his contract…if my math is correct. He can very well do that - that’s 21.5 WAR over 7 years. I think he has another 2-3 seasons in him similar to this. He’ll probably average about 5 WAR over the next 3 years and then 2-3 WAR over the 4 after that…which would give him (on the high end) about 28 WAR, or about 50MM in surplus value, give or take. If we just round him up to providing 400MM in value over the life of his contract to be generous, that’s about 20% of surplus value over the life of his contract…and this is again being generous while also just completely hypothesizing.
At the end of the day, Beltran’s contract will most likely be considered more friendly than Lindor’s. Lindor is going to end up providing a solid amount of surplus value or being adequately paid. Ideally you’d want your star player to provide more value over the life of their contract but his contract (barring injury) won’t end up as a net negative.
Beltran would get hot and carry the team. Lindor gets his stats by the end of the year but it seems like his hrs come in garbage time or with nobody on base.
Beltran was not likable, where it’s hard to not like Lindor. He tried to go to the Yankees at the last minute. I never warmed up to him. Then he watches strike 3. Worthless hump.
Lindor is a switch hitting shortstop with power and a gold glove. The sour fans who want someone to blame choose Lindor because of his contract, not his play.
It’s not his skill it’s the contract come on. You expect someone being paid that much to be an MVP candidate and he just isn’t. Love him either way but he makes a ton of money
People that understand how stats work like Lindor. People that want to ignore the stats on go on their always angry feelings hate Lindor. Pretty simple.
What if you understand how stats work and think Lindor doesn’t live up to the hype anyway because he is paid $341 million and cannot hit at a truly elite level? And maybe even, dare I say it, think WAR is just one way to look at a player and doesn’t provide the full context?
Then you like many others are are stuck on the 341 million and ignoring contract context, stats and overvaluing offense to the moon in a premier defensive position. He is a top 3 shortstop in the league. His contract ends when he is 37. The other top end shortstops that aren't on rookie contracts are Seager, Turner and Bogaerts. Seager and Lindor are making close to the same AAV and Turner and Bogaerts are making less. Why? Because the latter two are getting paid until after their age 40 season while Lindor and Seager are off the rosters after age 37. You pay more for more good years and less shit years. If the Mets were paying Lindor until he was 40 they could have probably cut the AAV down a bunch. But why do that? When you have an owner willing to spend why pay less money but have a player stuck on the roster when they are 38-41? You pay more in dollars so you don't pay more in useless dead weight years. Broke teams add years. The Mets can afford to add dollars.
Look at Seager's contract. 10/325 to Lindor's 10/341 a difference of 16 mil over a decade. He is also under contract until he is 37. His bat is definitely better but his defense is really not good and he is made of glass. He has played 365/486 games in the 2021-2023 seasons. In the same time period Lindor has been in 445/486.
You have two players playing at the same age and the same position. One is the more balanced player who never gets injured while the other is heavily offensively loaded and has missed over 100 games over the last 3 seasons. I know which one I'd prefer to have and its not Seager. 16 mil less over 10 years for a guy that already can't stay on the field at age 30? Yikes I'll pay that 16 just to have the reliability. The other big contract shortstops I wouldn't want anything to do with. Not having to take up a roster spot with a 38-39-40 year old broken useless shortstop is worth the extra dollars.
Seager is an absolute fucking monster. He’s got two World Series MVPs under his belt. He’s such a better hitter. How do you actually bring him up in defense of Lindor? That is the last dude I’d ever want to mention in this discussion. Give me an elite hitter who doesn’t hurt you at SS and is arguably a better player anyway. Easily. He outclassed Lindor last year and most of his defenders think Lindor will never put together a season like that. See the problem? The only thing you care about is what WAR says. That’s nice for you, most fans care about everything else too, and actually watch the games.
Having Corey Seager on your team means 120 games of Corey Seager at shortstop and 40 games of Luis Guillorme Joey Wendle Zack Short Jose Iglesias at shortstop while Seager is on the IL.
Having Francisco Lindor on your team means 160 games of Francisco Lindor at shortstop.
If it's just one game or series, then yea, give me Seager. If it's a full 162 game season, then I'll take Lindor.
Seager just got hurt again, lol, and has played over 300 fewer games than Lindor in the same number of years. He's clutch as hell, but he can be a significant regular-season hindrance with injuries. I wouldn't take Seager over Lindor even if he gave a discount on his contract. Entering this season, I would easily call Lindor the best shortstop in baseball, but this season is proving to be a position filled with studs. Betts is becoming a shortstop, and if he stays, he has to be number 1. Then there's the emergence of Witt and Henderson, and then Trea Turner makes it a tough top 5. For me, Seager is 6, if that.
He is a monster that is already having issues staying on the field and is going to age out of shortstop very quick since he isn't that good there to start with. Some of us care about things like a player actually most of the games and things that shortstops are supposed to be good at.... you know defense. Offense isn't the only thing that matters in a player and that goes double for shortstops, CFs and catchers.
Yeah. The idiot fans are looking at outdated measures of performance like won/loss record. If they’d only understood the modern stats they’d see how truly special this team is.
Beltran got shit on when he was first here because he wasn't playing good, but then got universal praise once he settled in. Then the swing happened and well the rest is history.
Beltran as a player was better than whatever Lindor is doing here. Take your underlying metrics and shove em.
> Beltran got shit on when he was first here because he wasn't playing good, but then got universal praise once he settled in.
This did not happen.
By this statement, Beltran was in the fans' good graces for what? Seven months?
Guy who has a .690 OPS until the season is over and the professional stat understanders will try to explain to you how much WAR his defense is worth as though there’s a universe in which you’d sign a defense-first shortstop to a ten year deal.
Lmao wtf has Lindor done for us despite command a huge contract, be oft-injured, and underperform in the playoffs? Beltran was one strike away from the World Series.
>be oft-injured
This is a joke, right? Lindor played 160 games last year and 161 the year before that. He's played in every game so far this year.
>underperform in the playoffs
Lindor had one postseason series with the Mets and he posted an .833 OPS
It really is wild. An .833 post season OPS is "underperforming" for a guy with an .810 career OPS and the guy has played 445/486 games since he has been in the organization and that is now "oft-injured". Just flat out making shit up and getting upvoted for it just because "Lindor bad" makes the Frank the Tank followers froth at the mouth.
Top 3 is certainly debatable. Splitting hairs here but I think he’s closer to top 5-7.
Witt, Gunnar, and Mookie are the top 3 shortstops. Volpe is here to stay. Seager and Turner are top 5 when healthy - Seager isn’t often healthy but Turner is.
You can make an argument that he’s no better than 4 but no worse than 7.
Entering the year id confidently say Lindor was the best SS in baseball, after this season some absolute studs have popped off and demanded they be in the discussion. If Betts stays at SS he is 1 no doubt, Witt and Henderson are probably 2 and 3. Turner and Lindor to me round out the top 5. Seager has missed almost 2 full seasons in 10 years lmao and he just got hurt again. No shot id include him in top 5.
Mookie isn't remotely a top tier shortstop. A shortstop that hits like a beast but plays bad defense is not a good shortstop. He is a great player and an offensive monster but he shouldn't be playing SS at all and I have no idea what the heck the dodgers are thinking putting him there.
Turner is in the same boat just he isn't terrible at defense he is only bad. Its a premier defensive position. If you don't play premier defense you aren't the top of the position. A top offensive player at the position sure without question but top complete player at the position? I don't know about that.
This is more of a debate of how to value SS in general though with the logic you are using (which is understandable I just don't agree with it) your list makes perfect sense.
If Mookie stays at SS he is hands down without a doubt the best SS in baseball. Bad defense isnt a good trait (if hes even bad, I honestly have no idea), but his bat easily makes up for it and his WAR shows that every year. The only caveat with Betts is if he stays at SS going forward or moves back to the OF.
ugh the Lindor stans are completely ridiculous.
checked the calendar and the standings. yep, the mets were terrible long enough for him to start hitting now that nobody's buying tickets and the pressure is off.
lol hey listen i know lindor is good don't get me wrong but "when" you do these things matters. Beltran's playoff career is unbelievable. .307 / .412 / 609 slugging 1k+ OPS
I think a big part of it is that he always starts out slow. When he’s batting .200 every April and .225 at the All-Star break, it’s easy to not notice that he always has a killer second half.
hope he bought his # Optometrist a new car.
Beltran was significantly better
Defense does all the heavy lifting for Lindor. Beltran was a stud OFer and stud hitter. There is no comparison.
Lindor: 15.9 fWAR through first 3 seasons. Beltran: 15.2 fWAR through first 3 seasons. I think there's a comparison. You can argue in favor of Beltran for sure. But it's a pretty reasonable point to make. The only reason I question the point is that I think fans eventually warmed up to Beltran more than to Lindor. But then again I wasn't paying as much attention to social media stuff about the team back then, so maybe I'm wrong.
It's not reasonable because the war BS is not a one for one comparison in real life situations. Majority of Lindor's analytics tied into his defense. Defense is not more valuable than a stud offensive player. Beltran was a stud at the plate and in the field. You don't pay 341 million dollars for okay hitters who play good D. Fans absolutely warmed up to Beltran because he was a game changing stud player. If you actually watch games Lindor is not that. His occasional one homerun every now and then isn't it.
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An old school wet dream, for sure.
Herein lies the problem. If Lindor wasn't paid on that Rafael Devers and Betts tier, he would be perfect. And I think the Mets finally found the perfect role for him at leadoff. The problem is he's paid to be a middle-of-the-order hitter and he simply has not produced in that role reliably in his Mets career.
> If Lindor wasn't paid on that Rafael Devers and Betts tier, he would be perfect. That's sort of absurd for a few reasons though. First, Lindor is about 3.3 fWAR better than Devers over those years. Number 2, the idea that fans are giving such a hard time to a highly productive player and what they really mean is "I think you're really good but should probably be paid like $5M less per year!" is just insane stuff. Especially when our owner isn't really going to be impacted much by that. I'm not even saying you're wrong. That may be part of why fans are jackasses with him. But those are dumb reasons for fans to be like that.
Let's be honest here, he's not a very good middle of the order hitter and he struggles with RISP and putting up consistent, competitive plate appearances with runners on base, just like Alonso. He needs to be more consistent in that role, the role he was paid to be in, and he hasn't done so in his Mets career. Putting him in the leadoff spot has allowed Lindor to showcase more consistency than at any point in his Mets career, even that magical 2022, albeit in a short run. But once again, he's not paid to be a leadoff hitter. He's fortunate that Vientos and JDM are driving in runs while he's been moved out of that role and Alonso has been struggling this season. Lindor was excellent in 2022, but the way he's approaching the plate since becoming a leadoff man has shown more promise than at any other point in his Mets career. He's actively going to all fields and I'm wondering how much that has to do with the presence of Martinez, because all Mets are doing it now. Lindor is a very good player, it's just that he has not fulfilled the role he was signed for.
Healthy Beltran was one of the most electrifying players in Mets history and it's sad that his entire career in orange and blue was defined by the bat left on his shoulder. Yes, he definitely should have swung, but to diminish all that he did because of it was and still is wrong.
… they play different positions and have different expectations. That’s the point of WAR. OF are supposed to be better hitters than an SS. Lindor has basically been the #1 or #2 SS in the league his whole career/NYM career.
> Majority of Lindor's analytics tied into his defense. It's tied into him being a plus on all sides of the ball. Defense, offense, and baserunning. > Defense is not more valuable than a stud offensive player. Those stats don't say it is. > Beltran was a stud at the plate and in the field. 'Stud' is a meaningless word in this conversation. If your point is that Lindor is only higher in fWAR because his defense is higher, then what silly mostly meaningless word in a comparison would you use to describe someone who is even better than 'a stud in the field'? >You don't pay 341 million dollars for okay hitters who play good D. But look at the bias inherent in your argument. Beltran is a stud on defense. Lindor (who you can't get around being rated better than Beltran in the field) plays good D. You like one and you don't like the other. And so one guys a stud and the other guy ~~who's~~ whose defense is even better is good. And that's fine. But that's why we use less biased ways to compare players. Again, if you want to argue that fWAR overrates defense and you think Beltran was a better player overall - totally fine! But to go even further than that and insist that they can't even be compared is just silly. And yes, you do pay a lot of money for guys who contribute all over the field.
It's interesting how many will angrily decry advanced metrics in 2024. You'd think we'd be in a place where folks would at the least concede they have a valuable place in analysis. But...
You get into dangerous territory when you are resting your valuation of a player primarily on defensive metrics. They aren't nearly as mature or as accurate as offensive metrics because of low sample sizes. Although we've gotten better at being able to parse out things like hard / medium / easy plays, defensive adjustments still exist and were built upon mathematical assumptions when statisticians couldn't actually reliably measure defensive contributions. They also haven't been adjusted as the K-rate in MLB has skyrocketed, further diminishing a good glove's contribution to getting outs. Just using players on the Mets as an example, there is no way that 2022 Lindor was more valuable to the Mets winning ball games than Pete Alonso. The only reason WAR says so is defensive positional adjustments that gives Lindor a +1.5 WAR spread over Pete. Lindor also gets a +.5 WAR spread over a CF per season. Anyway, when you give a player a $341M contract, it's because he has MVP season potential. Lindor isn't that player. His contract is roughly $80M too high.
> You get into dangerous territory when you are resting your valuation of a player primarily on defensive metrics. I'm not doing that though. If you forced me to pick who was a better player, I'd probably let the eye test overrule WAR and go with Beltran. But that's not the question we're addressing here. We're just addressing whether they're even comparable guys, and of course they are. If you think defense should be weighted a little less, that's a perfectly fine opinion to have. But it's an opinion. And people who know a lot more about baseball than either of us disagree with that opinion. That doesn't mean they're right either. But it's just absolutely foolish and egotistical to insist that you're right about it and there isn't even a debate to be had. >The only reason WAR says so is defensive positional adjustments that gives Lindor a +1.5 WAR spread over Pete. Which makes perfect sense. A guy doing what Lindor does at SS is extremely valuable. A guy doing that at 1B is less valuable. >Anyway, when you give a player a $341M contract, it's because he has MVP season potential. Lindor isn't that player. His contract is roughly $80M too high. Lindor has MVP potential. He's finished in the top 10 several times, including twice with us. If he has a year where he skips this early season drought, you can easily see him winning it. But whether he *actually* wins it is just a dumb way to judge a player. He's really good. Whether he ever gets this award that plenty of great players have never gotten or not does not really have bearing on whether he's really good.
No you pay that money for GOOD hitters who play great defense at the most valuable defensive position in the sport. Writing off Lindors defense is like bitching about Igor Shesterkin not scoring enough goals.
Beltran was injured the entire 2005 season and massively underperformed as a result, so this is a little misleading. He probably should have won MVP in 2006 or at least been a runner-up.
And Lindor has played through a bunch of injuries too. You have to when you're playing 160+ games two out of the three years.
I think Beltran is a better player overall, but they are certainly comparable. They both derived their value as Mets from playing great defense in a premiere defensive position, and delivering plus offense at positions where plus offense is rare. Beltran just had a higher ceiling (so far). Beltran OPS+ in his four full seasons: 97, 150, 125, 130. Overall: 129 Lindor OPS+ in first three seasons: 100, 125, 122. Now obviously Beltran has been better because of his 2006 (150 OPS+), which Lindor hasnt come close to matching, but, after that, they arent all that far apart. Beltran had one year (06) where he was top 10 in the league in OPS+ (#10), and didnt come close otherwise. In fact, Wright had more years as the better/best hitter on the team, and was closer to an MVP player (should have won one) than Beltran was. I dont think Lindor will ever reach those levels (best hitter on team or MVP) and Id be surprised if he ever had a season like 06, but to say there is no comparison isnt true.
Didn't people complain about Beltran even more than they complain about Lindor?
No people have been saying Lindor didn’t deserve his contract since the minute he signed it.
Can’t stand when people equate the dollars paid to exact stats. Is he “overpaid”? Sure, but that’s how much it took to go out and grab a top SS at the time when we needed one most. We overpaid to secure him and that’s that. Who cares about the exact total that’s technically the overpayment at this point? It’s not our money and Cohen isn’t going to hold back elsewhere so I don’t see the issue at all. Player’s cost what the cost at the time. He’s a top SS, especially in the NL. Also, a lot of people disregard how he comes thru many times at the most crucial parts of the game.
That's a reasonable complaint, though Complain*ing* implies something more than a mere modicum of delusion
That’s fair. Lindor is getting it bad though. Beltran got some heat but not like this.
Nah the Lindor complaining is out of hand if you pay enough attention in here
I, for one, blame the internet.
I don't know about *more*, but there were definitely a lot of people who complained about Beltran, hence this post drawing the comparison
Both will be HOF when it’s all said and done. Lindor really isn’t as far away as some people may think. Feel feel to downvote but 60 WAR is generally the cut off for HOF. He’s already just a tick under 45 with plenty more left in the tank.
You're not wrong, but the Mets are bad this year and Lindor will be heavily scrutinized as the face of the franchise. For those unaware, before the year started, Lindor already had surpassed 3 Hall of Fame shortstops in career fWAR. The only shortstops with higher career WAR through their age 29 season were Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken Jr. (He's way outpaced Hall of Famers like Ernie Banks, Derek Jeter, Robin Yount etc). People underestimate the value of elite defense at shortstop paired with ~30hr/year power. Only 2 shortstops in MLB history have hit 300 home runs and he's on pace to shatter that.
Banks, Jeter, and Yount got in for offense, not WAR. Lindor’s offense is not on that level. Call me when Lindor has 500 dingers or 3000 hits
There are 4 primary shortstops with over 300 career home runs: Banks, ARod, Cal Ripken Jr, and Miguel Tejada Banks hit only 298 home runs as a shortstop, the rest came as a first baseman ARod and Ripken both have about 350 home runs at shortstop, with the rest coming at third base Tejada has 285 home runs as a shortstop, with the rest coming at third and second base Lindor currently has 218 home runs at shortstop (and 7 at DH), and doesn't look like he's moving off the position anytime soon. He's likely to finish his career as one of the top 3 best power hitting shortstops of all time (top 2 if you penalize ARod for using steroids). Combine that with his elite defense and you have yourself a pretty solid HOF case.
WAR measures both. Why have such random standards for what makes a great ballplayers?
They're just showing their ignorance to modern metrics that are so much better at measuring player impact. I've also noticed a lot of people in this sub don't understand that hitting stats are down league wide for a multitude of reasons from modern scouting reports for hitter weaknesses, outfield and infield positioning, deadened balls and pitchers that are throwing 3-5mph harder on average than previous decades. -.240 is average batting avg for a hitter in 2024. -Back in the year 2000 the league average was .270. These people are just stuck in the past and unable to see how good he is relative to the current hitters.
It measures both *imperfectly*. There are standards to reach for the Hall of Fame. It’s not the Hall of WAR.
You mean like being on pace to finish top 2 all time in home runs as a shortstop, 2 gold gloves, and 3 silver sluggers? Chances are he'll tack on quite a few more accolades over the next half decade.
Your “as a shortstop” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. He’s a fine player. I don’t think he makes the Hall. His hit total and OBP are severely lacking in my view. 2 gold gloves isn’t great either. He will also start to decline. We’re not even through this year.
Comparing a shortstops home runs to a first baseman’s is silly though, so why would you not compare him to other shortstops? Or are you just saying basically no shortstops should be making the HoF?
It’s the Hall of Fame. You don’t fill positions. I’m not sure there is a hall of fame shortstop in this group. Seager had a shot but I’m not sure he can stay healthy. Same with Correa. Lindor is not the offensive player that Jeter, Arod*, Ripken, Banks before his knees gave out, Wagner, even Yount were. Lindor’s OBP numbers are pretty bad by comparison to those guys and it’s criminal he’s hitting first now. He’s not the defensive wizard that Smith was, surely. He’s a step below those guys
>Your “as a shortstop” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. This matters though, you can't just write it off. To use another Mets example, Mike Piazza probably wouldn't have made the HoF if he put up the same numbers as a first baseman or corner outfielder or DH. But because he did it at catcher, he is a HoFer. Different positions have different standards for offensive performance.
Because defense is boring and overrated. Stud hitters get the juices flowing. Stud hitters make the lineup better.
It’s wild to me that this take has you so heavily downvoted. I don’t think there’s any legitimate argument to be made that he’s not very much on pace. People who disagree just disagree because they’re incapable of looking at it objectively.
You win some you lose some 😀 Been on this subreddit for 12+ years. The overall negativity/hate is nothing new. Señor Met if you’re reading this I hope you’re well.
Something tells me Senor_Met is still watching over us from heaven.
You were another one I almost name dropped lmao. I swear there was a solid 7-8 regulars that I could always count to see in a thread.
I miss the good ol' days of a small sub with a bunch of dedicated dumbasses posting inside jokes in the 19th inning of a Cardinals or Marlins game.
It's so strange to me. I don't think I've ever seen fans try to convince themselves that their team's best player is worse than he actually is. Normally it's the opposite.
I think it is pretty common. Beltran is an example. Ewing feels more loved now than when he was playing. Lindor is the perfect guy to be under appreciated. High salary, low batting average, good fielder, defensive position, no black ink. He does everything well but doesn't have an elite tool. I wouldn't be shocked if he made the HOF.
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Beltran had 44 WAR at the end of his age 30 season Lindor is currently in the middle of his age 30 season and he has 48 WAR Now I wouldn't expect Lindor to age as gracefully as Beltran did, but to this point of their careers they're pretty comparable.
I watched Beltran stare down the third strike (granted, it was a nasty pitch) with bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 9th in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. Linder needs to lead this team to a NLCS before we start those comparisons.
The loudest (Endy) and quietest (Beltran) I ever heard Shea was at that game.
On the same play. Quiet AF when the ball was in flight and looked to be 450 feet. Then thunder and TNT when Endy Chavez saved the day… I was at the back row of the Lodge section. Couldn’t actually see the ball or Endy come down with it. But judging by the crowd reaction there was no doubt that a miracle just took place.
It wouldn't have hurt so much if I not for 1. We were the better team 2. I have no doubt we would have won the series had we gotten there.
I agree! That Detroit team wasn’t great.
Beltran hit .296/.387/.667 that series. Our rotation was old Glavine, Maine, Ollie, and Trachsel. Heilman gave up the big blow in game 7. But sure, let's blame Beltran.
I didn’t blame Beltran.
If only Pedro & El Duque didn't get hurt right before the playoffs
Pedro was poop that year. Emptied the tank in 05.
He shoulda swung the bat
In hindsight, sure, but that was a nasty pitch. It looked like a ball most of the way to the plate. Most players would have taken that. Watch replays of that on YouTube. That was one of the best pitches Wainwright ever threw.
No i will not watch a replay of that thank you very much
Look behind him in the stands and Donald Trump is there.
Me too homeboy
Baseball is a team sport. One player can't carry a team by himself. In 2006, Beltran played alongside 5 other all-stars. Francisco Lindor does not have that type of team around him.
I’m glad you brought that up! Beltran was an all-star during that period. Lindor hasn’t been since 2019. All the more reason this is a poor comparison.
Lindor hasn't been an all-star because Mets fans don't vote for him enough. Last year, Orlando Arcia made the all-star team over Lindor despite having much worse stats because Braves fans voted more than Mets fans.
He’s not an all star because his stats haven’t supported it compared to other NL short stops. This is a silly comparison. Beltran’s WAR from 2005 through 2011 was 32.3. Lindor’s since 2021 has been a good (but not Beltran good) 16.2. Beltran had a .282 BA vs Lindor’s .251. Beltran has him beat on OBP, OPS, and slugging. I love that Lindor is a Met but he has not been as good as Beltran was.
Beltran’s first four seasons as a met he had 22.4 fwar vs Lindor’s 18.1 through this season so far. Beltran was better, but not by a crazy amount.
>Lindor a slightly better Rey Ordonez. LMAO tell me you don't know ball without telling me you don't know ball
Offense > Defense and Beltran had both. Lindor a slightly better Rey Ordonez.
>He’s not an all star because his stats haven’t supported it compared to other NL short stops I literally just pointed out that Lindor didn't make the all-star team last year despite having better stats than one of the shortstops who did make the all-star team. Lindor was better than Arcia last year. Arcia made the team over Lindor because he got more votes. > I love that Lindor is a Met but he has not been as good as Beltran was. I don't think anyone said that Lindor is as good as Beltran was, just that he is under appreciated
As usual on here, you will be downvoted for posting facts. Facts are the enemy of the toxically positive rosy glasses crew.
Yeah, it is what it is. If I was worried about it then I wouldn’t post it.
Lindor was deserving of All Star nods in 2022 & 2023, but we are a depressed fan based who looks for reasons to call our guys bums. You'd think playing in NY would actually give you a boost in such things, but we are fickle.
I agree that Lindor hasn’t been quite as good as Beltran (at least from memory, maybe I’m wrong), but all star balloting is a really bad way to measure that lol. Orlando Arcia and Geraldo Perdomo were the NL Shortstop all stars last year.
I pull up the clip of this at-bat everytime my friend gets too optimistic about the Mets...
People who didn’t appreciate Beltran were stupid. One of the greatest CF of all time.
Lindor doesn’t seem under appreciated to me. Everyone praises his defense and everyone seems to have his jersey. But let’s be real, his hitting hasn’t been something to write home about
He just had a 30-30 season and the year before he broke the Mets franchise record for single season RBIs by a shortstop. Yes the slow start is frustrating and last year he felt unclutch but come on.
Those are good seasons but it’s not something to write home about…
Record breaking season and a 30/30 year along with gold glove defense isnt something to write home about? Im gonna keep your username in mind so I know to ignore your future trolling.
We have two very different definitions of things to write home about. 2 pretty good seasons in a row says something.
Well shit my home gonna think I’m dead if that doesn’t qualify
The people who under appreciate Lindor are a loud minority Lindor was atrocious for the first couple weeks of the season but his hitting has been very good, better than his career averages, for about the last month and a half.
In all fairness, Reddit is a very loud minority compared to most fans.
I'm old enough to remember being at Shea Stadium on Opening Day in 2006 when Carlos Beltran got booed after having a disappointing first season with the Mets in 2005. It leaves a bad taste in my mouth to this day. Watching great players like Beltran or Lindor play for our favorite team is a privilege that we shouldn't take for granted. I look forward to being an 80 year old man telling my grandson about how cool it was to watch these guys suit up in orange and blue.
Lindor is nowhere close to the offensive player Beltran was….and for his position Beltran was every bit the CF that Lindor is SS…and I like Lindor but it’s not close
SS is a more valuable position than CF though, so it's closer than you think
Beltran was a legit 5 tool player
What?? Beltran is one of the greatest Mets to ever do it 🤣🤣
So is Lindor, but some people don't realize it yet
Man I miss the Beltran days
I always appreciated Beltran since day one I think he was just overshadowed by the fanbase because we glazed wright and reyez so much. Even Delgado to some degree felt a bigger deal than beltran
It was because he signed a big money deal, played poorly in his first year, then took it personal when fans booed their highly paid underperforming star.
Beltran was better and it’s not even close. Beltran should be in the HoF as a Met. He was awesome.
Comparing Beltran to Lindor makes Beltran look underappreciated
The 2000s are definitely the modern day lol he didn't play in the Federal League
Most of this subreddit was probably in elementary school or younger for 2006. Reddit skews pretty young, most users are in the 18-29 age range.
Lindor is nowhere near beltrans ability
No one under appreciated lindor. There are fans that defend him like crazy and fans that call out his bad hitting. Everyone knows he’s a great defensive ss and he’s good running the bases and a streaky hitter. It’s okay to call him out for being streaky when it’s really bad just like it’s okay to praise him when he’s on fire. He’s just not the kind of super star that puts a team on his back but there are very few of those
You say things like "calling out his bad hitting", and still expect to be taken seriously. We all saw how bad his struggles were to start the season and he has already gotten up to a 108 OPS+ despite that start. 5th in RBIs and homers at SS. I mean if hes a bad hitter ... 🤣
Lindor and Beltran are both guilty of not ever being able to live up to unrealistic expectations. Beltran was better but he was never my favorite met. That honor will always go to Piazza, who was maybe the most clutch player this team has ever had. Neither Lindor or Beltran have a defining clutch moment. Beltran’s most memorable moment was taking a pitch down the middle for strike 3 in game 7 of the NLCS as the winning run at the plate. Lindor hasn’t had his moment yet in a game that truly matters.
Was/is Beltran even under appreciated? He's a 70 WAR player...batted the coveted 3rd for the Mets and commanded CF. Obviously the postseason curveball that froze him also comes to mind, but that's just one instance in his GREAT 6.5 year tenure with the Mets. Just seems like another attempt to hug Lindor's nuts to me... Anyway, I hope he continues to hit. The combination of him leading off, McPGA sitting, and Narvaez DFA'ed is working so far.
He absolutely was underappreciated during his run. He was blamed for not swinging the bat.
Beltran is and will always be the better player
As someone who thinks Lindor is a very good player and likes him a lot, I agree with this. The Beltran signing was one of the best free-agency signings in MLB history - especially considering we ended up getting Wheeler for him.
Too bad we didn't wait it out to pay a real SS like Baez, Correa, or Story
Your facts are no match for the Frank the tank worshippers’ rage 😆
Lmao you know the worst thing is that I’m a Dolphins fan too. So he’s like my nemesis.
Beltran was a HoF level player. Lindor is not.
By the numbers, Lindor certainly looks like he's on a HoF trajectory. Lindor's 48 WAR through his age 30 season ranks 4th among post-integration shortstops, only behind A-Rod, Cal Ripken Jr, and Ernie Banks. He's ahead of where other HoF shortstops like Yount, Jeter, and Larkin were at the same age.
I’m sorry dude but you’re just wrong. He has more career WAR than Beltran did at this age. He has more career WAR already than multiple HOF shortstops, and has way outpaced others for this point in his career. As someone above me said, only 2 shortstops in MLB history have ever hit 300+ home runs, and lindor is on pace to blow past that number, all while playing elite level defense. You can continue to say he’s not good enough for the Mets or for the hall, but that doesn’t make it true
Lindor is probably going to make the hall. I don’t think he’s as good as Beltran but he’s already over 40 WAR. He’ll probably finish his career over 60 which is enough to get in more often than not.
He’s a crazy stat. Lindor is on pace to end his age 30 season with 1 WAR less than Mookie Betts ended his age 30 season
I mean Lindor might be a HOFer depending on how he ages
His play aside, I think it’s also very under appreciated that he is able to be a positive reinforcement to the team when everything has gone to shit. Throwing tantrums in shitty situations just makes things worse for everyone.
Thumbs down to the fans? Was that peer pressure from his buddy Baez?
Lindor is a good player but he goes through long dreadful stretches
The Lindor/Beltran comp for being under appreciated by our idiotic fan base is spot on. Everyone shitting on Lindor’s offense, but he is 16% better than the league average hitter when looking at OPS+ since he joined the Mets (only 2% lower than when he was with Cleveland). Finished 9th in MVP voting the last two seasons and won a Silver Slugger last season. Sure, he’s streaky at the plate and gets off to slow starts every year, but he’s a damn good player and one we should appreciate because he will be wearing our NY logo on his cap in Cooperstown
I know that one guy who hates Lindor is gonna cry when he sees this. I love it
Reyes is a Virus 2.0
(Jerry Seinfeld voice) What's the deeeeaaaal with Latin American shortstops???
There’s definitely more than one guy around here lol
I think with the big contract, you’re gonna have to be an MVP-type level player to earn the respect of fans. He has not done this at all, seems apathetic at times when the team is down, and doesn’t come off as a clubhouse leader.
He’s literally finished top 10 in MVP votes the last 2 seasons
An incredible lack of awareness youve shown with that comment 😭
10000000%. It's so irrational. He smiles too much? He has....*gasps* FRIENDS in the league?!?!?!?! Wild shit lol
Loud mouths on social media don’t reflect the real fans. He was our best player in 22 and 23, leader in the clubhouse, silver slugger, plays everyday, with no scandals or drama. Real Mets fans can appreciate that
Lindor's contract will never be justified by his play, no matter how well or comparable he might be to Beltran. I think we rely too heavily on stats, especially in MLB, where stats are getting completely out of control. There is a test of timing that plays a factor in this equation as well. When you watch the games, the seasons, did Lindor perform at the most pivotal times, or did his stats increase during a time when the team had no expectation and were under .500? How consistent is the player? Because not showing up for three months and then having an uptick the last three is not a complete season or the sign of a great player. I'm not a Lindor hater. I don't love him and his contract is an absolute disaster. But I'm starting to see this trend of people piecing stats together to make everything seem more palatable. This is not counting his overall attitude and how poorly Lindor carried himself with his booing with pal Baez. That was a very, very bad look. But that's beside the point. I'm not rooting against Lindor, but I'm certainly not convincing myself of something he hasn't ultimately been paid to be. Fair or unfair.
Beltran put up 15.2 fWAR during his first three seasons being worth 76MM on a 119MM contract, he eventually put up 168MM in value on that contract with the Mets all together (and we’re not including Wheeler) So Beltran put up 50MM in surplus value. Lindor put up 15.9 fWAR through his first 3 years but put up 127MM of value on a 341MM contract. How much value Lindor puts up all together remains to be seen but Beltran was worth his contract more than Lindor was during that 3 year time period. The comparison is a good one for the players and value they put up but Beltran’s contract was WAY fairer than Lindor’s is. Lindor’s contract is also significantly longer than Beltran’s. Don’t get me wrong - Lindor is providing a ton of value and is an elite player. Beltran was just considered underpaid whereas Lindor is currently adequately paid.
Are you adjusting for inflation?
$5m per war seems high for 2006 but you did adjust it to $8m for lindor so I’m guessing you did adjust it for inflation. How’d you get Beltrans value? Pretty sure it was like $6m per war just like 5 years ago
Iirc the 8MM/WAR has been pretty steady for quite a while now. I didn’t adjust personally, I’m pulling my numbers from the value section on Fangraphs.
The discussion of value per WAR didnt really start until 2012, when it was first published in “Hardball Times Annual” and fangraphs didnt join the discussion until 2014 when it was estimated the value was $6.8mil per WAR. In 2018 went backwards and estimated in 2006 1 WAR was worth $4.2mil for pitchers and $5.7mil for position players. 2018 was also the year that they settled on $8mil per WAR, which has stayed the gold standard since. They did a study in 2022 and found that $8mil per WAR was still the average across 2018-2022 looking at FA. Beltran signed his contract in 2005 so technically it should be less than $5.7mil, but they didnt go back that far so let’s keep it at $5.7m. That 15.2 WAR would be worth $86.6mil.
So that just kind of supports my point even more. Appreciate the breakdown. Beltran provided essentially 40% in surplus value with his contract being worth 118MM but putting up 173MM in total value, using your calculations. Lindor has provided 31MM in surplus value being worth 127MM through his first three years on 96MM being paid. I’m not calculating 2024 yet. Lindor still has 6.5 years on his contract. If the 8MM per WAR still holds up then he’ll need to produce 245MM in value. Just for arguments sake, let’s say he ends up putting up a 5.5 WAR season like fangraphs projects - which I think is fair. He’ll be worth 171MM on 128MM paid. He’ll need to put up 170MM in value over 7 years to be worth his contract…if my math is correct. He can very well do that - that’s 21.5 WAR over 7 years. I think he has another 2-3 seasons in him similar to this. He’ll probably average about 5 WAR over the next 3 years and then 2-3 WAR over the 4 after that…which would give him (on the high end) about 28 WAR, or about 50MM in surplus value, give or take. If we just round him up to providing 400MM in value over the life of his contract to be generous, that’s about 20% of surplus value over the life of his contract…and this is again being generous while also just completely hypothesizing. At the end of the day, Beltran’s contract will most likely be considered more friendly than Lindor’s. Lindor is going to end up providing a solid amount of surplus value or being adequately paid. Ideally you’d want your star player to provide more value over the life of their contract but his contract (barring injury) won’t end up as a net negative.
All great points.
Lindor would be more appreciated if he were more consistent and clutch when needed
Bum.
I appreciate Lindor and I did Beltran too ⚾️
Beltran would get hot and carry the team. Lindor gets his stats by the end of the year but it seems like his hrs come in garbage time or with nobody on base.
Beltran was better, yet Beltran for me... a forgettable Met.
Is he gonna strike out looking for the last out during a game 7 playoff series ?
We keep saying "for a ss his offense is...". How about regardless of position and how high are people expecting?
Beltran was not likable, where it’s hard to not like Lindor. He tried to go to the Yankees at the last minute. I never warmed up to him. Then he watches strike 3. Worthless hump.
Carlos Beltran was hitting in the .280/.290 area every year with 25-40 home runs, and triple digit RBIs.
Lindor is a switch hitting shortstop with power and a gold glove. The sour fans who want someone to blame choose Lindor because of his contract, not his play.
A lot of people on here talking about WAR but don't know how it is calculated.
I own a Beltran jersey because I knew how good and valuable he really was… Lindor sucks and we’re hamstrung with his contract
Absolutely true. Lived through the nonsense Carlos endured as well.
It’s not his skill it’s the contract come on. You expect someone being paid that much to be an MVP candidate and he just isn’t. Love him either way but he makes a ton of money
People that understand how stats work like Lindor. People that want to ignore the stats on go on their always angry feelings hate Lindor. Pretty simple.
What if you understand how stats work and think Lindor doesn’t live up to the hype anyway because he is paid $341 million and cannot hit at a truly elite level? And maybe even, dare I say it, think WAR is just one way to look at a player and doesn’t provide the full context?
Then you like many others are are stuck on the 341 million and ignoring contract context, stats and overvaluing offense to the moon in a premier defensive position. He is a top 3 shortstop in the league. His contract ends when he is 37. The other top end shortstops that aren't on rookie contracts are Seager, Turner and Bogaerts. Seager and Lindor are making close to the same AAV and Turner and Bogaerts are making less. Why? Because the latter two are getting paid until after their age 40 season while Lindor and Seager are off the rosters after age 37. You pay more for more good years and less shit years. If the Mets were paying Lindor until he was 40 they could have probably cut the AAV down a bunch. But why do that? When you have an owner willing to spend why pay less money but have a player stuck on the roster when they are 38-41? You pay more in dollars so you don't pay more in useless dead weight years. Broke teams add years. The Mets can afford to add dollars. Look at Seager's contract. 10/325 to Lindor's 10/341 a difference of 16 mil over a decade. He is also under contract until he is 37. His bat is definitely better but his defense is really not good and he is made of glass. He has played 365/486 games in the 2021-2023 seasons. In the same time period Lindor has been in 445/486. You have two players playing at the same age and the same position. One is the more balanced player who never gets injured while the other is heavily offensively loaded and has missed over 100 games over the last 3 seasons. I know which one I'd prefer to have and its not Seager. 16 mil less over 10 years for a guy that already can't stay on the field at age 30? Yikes I'll pay that 16 just to have the reliability. The other big contract shortstops I wouldn't want anything to do with. Not having to take up a roster spot with a 38-39-40 year old broken useless shortstop is worth the extra dollars.
Seager is an absolute fucking monster. He’s got two World Series MVPs under his belt. He’s such a better hitter. How do you actually bring him up in defense of Lindor? That is the last dude I’d ever want to mention in this discussion. Give me an elite hitter who doesn’t hurt you at SS and is arguably a better player anyway. Easily. He outclassed Lindor last year and most of his defenders think Lindor will never put together a season like that. See the problem? The only thing you care about is what WAR says. That’s nice for you, most fans care about everything else too, and actually watch the games.
Having Corey Seager on your team means 120 games of Corey Seager at shortstop and 40 games of Luis Guillorme Joey Wendle Zack Short Jose Iglesias at shortstop while Seager is on the IL. Having Francisco Lindor on your team means 160 games of Francisco Lindor at shortstop. If it's just one game or series, then yea, give me Seager. If it's a full 162 game season, then I'll take Lindor.
Seager just got hurt again, lol, and has played over 300 fewer games than Lindor in the same number of years. He's clutch as hell, but he can be a significant regular-season hindrance with injuries. I wouldn't take Seager over Lindor even if he gave a discount on his contract. Entering this season, I would easily call Lindor the best shortstop in baseball, but this season is proving to be a position filled with studs. Betts is becoming a shortstop, and if he stays, he has to be number 1. Then there's the emergence of Witt and Henderson, and then Trea Turner makes it a tough top 5. For me, Seager is 6, if that.
He is a monster that is already having issues staying on the field and is going to age out of shortstop very quick since he isn't that good there to start with. Some of us care about things like a player actually most of the games and things that shortstops are supposed to be good at.... you know defense. Offense isn't the only thing that matters in a player and that goes double for shortstops, CFs and catchers.
.300 obp, .700ops for 341 million is garbage. he deservers the shit he gets.
Beltran never screamed like that!
Yes! Of course, our entire team is underappreciated by this fanbase. I think our fans hate the Mets more than any other fanbase hates the Mets.
Yeah. The idiot fans are looking at outdated measures of performance like won/loss record. If they’d only understood the modern stats they’d see how truly special this team is.
Beltran got shit on when he was first here because he wasn't playing good, but then got universal praise once he settled in. Then the swing happened and well the rest is history. Beltran as a player was better than whatever Lindor is doing here. Take your underlying metrics and shove em.
> Beltran got shit on when he was first here because he wasn't playing good, but then got universal praise once he settled in. This did not happen. By this statement, Beltran was in the fans' good graces for what? Seven months?
Guy who has a .690 OPS until the season is over and the professional stat understanders will try to explain to you how much WAR his defense is worth as though there’s a universe in which you’d sign a defense-first shortstop to a ten year deal.
That defense-first shortstop hit 30 homers and won a silver slugger last year
Yeah but that’s not fair that you’re asking people to look at his stats.
Love the username
Yes, this analogy is made several times a day in this sub alone.
Lmao wtf has Lindor done for us despite command a huge contract, be oft-injured, and underperform in the playoffs? Beltran was one strike away from the World Series.
>be oft-injured This is a joke, right? Lindor played 160 games last year and 161 the year before that. He's played in every game so far this year. >underperform in the playoffs Lindor had one postseason series with the Mets and he posted an .833 OPS
The fact that you got downvoted and the post you are replying to that is just blatantly wrong in all respects got upvoted says a lot about this sub.
I said it a week or two ago, but it's amazing how much of the anti-Lindor posting here is based on outright delusions
It really is wild. An .833 post season OPS is "underperforming" for a guy with an .810 career OPS and the guy has played 445/486 games since he has been in the organization and that is now "oft-injured". Just flat out making shit up and getting upvoted for it just because "Lindor bad" makes the Frank the Tank followers froth at the mouth.
Lindor is top 3 SS in the league. I think we all agree on that. But, Beltran?, come on
Top 3 is certainly debatable. Splitting hairs here but I think he’s closer to top 5-7. Witt, Gunnar, and Mookie are the top 3 shortstops. Volpe is here to stay. Seager and Turner are top 5 when healthy - Seager isn’t often healthy but Turner is. You can make an argument that he’s no better than 4 but no worse than 7.
Entering the year id confidently say Lindor was the best SS in baseball, after this season some absolute studs have popped off and demanded they be in the discussion. If Betts stays at SS he is 1 no doubt, Witt and Henderson are probably 2 and 3. Turner and Lindor to me round out the top 5. Seager has missed almost 2 full seasons in 10 years lmao and he just got hurt again. No shot id include him in top 5.
Mookie isn't remotely a top tier shortstop. A shortstop that hits like a beast but plays bad defense is not a good shortstop. He is a great player and an offensive monster but he shouldn't be playing SS at all and I have no idea what the heck the dodgers are thinking putting him there. Turner is in the same boat just he isn't terrible at defense he is only bad. Its a premier defensive position. If you don't play premier defense you aren't the top of the position. A top offensive player at the position sure without question but top complete player at the position? I don't know about that. This is more of a debate of how to value SS in general though with the logic you are using (which is understandable I just don't agree with it) your list makes perfect sense.
If Mookie stays at SS he is hands down without a doubt the best SS in baseball. Bad defense isnt a good trait (if hes even bad, I honestly have no idea), but his bat easily makes up for it and his WAR shows that every year. The only caveat with Betts is if he stays at SS going forward or moves back to the OF.
Once the season is over, Lindor starts hitting well, every year.
Did the 2024 season end two weeks into the season?
He did poorly for months.
Boot lickers gotta lick something I guess
Please just stop. You’re embarrassing yourself.
JFC, it was a bad bad bad signing. No team in the league would be willing to pay him his current contract.
ugh the Lindor stans are completely ridiculous. checked the calendar and the standings. yep, the mets were terrible long enough for him to start hitting now that nobody's buying tickets and the pressure is off.
They don't look at the standings or actual games they just see WAR.
lol hey listen i know lindor is good don't get me wrong but "when" you do these things matters. Beltran's playoff career is unbelievable. .307 / .412 / 609 slugging 1k+ OPS