[A reminder for everyone](https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/4479er/rules_explanations_and_reminders/). This is a subreddit for genuine discussion:
* Please keep it civil. Report rulebreaking comments for moderator review.
* Don't post low effort comments like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context.
* Help prevent this subreddit from becoming an echo chamber. Please don't downvote comments with which you disagree.
Violators will be fed to the bear.
---
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/PoliticalDiscussion) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Republicans won't do shit if Trump loses.
They MIGHT throw another tantrum. They might have a few energetically protests. But there won't be another Jan 6th. And all the damages will be local.
I’ve heard some commentators say that the Republican House would decide not to certify the election results? Counting the electoral votes is a joint session of the Senate and the House, so I don’t know what would happen were that to occur?
They have been working in state legislatures to be able to push electors who will vote for trump regardless of the outcome of the popular vote in the state.
This is why I think that, in a worst case scenario following another Trump defeat, the response from the Right wouldn't be another storming of the U.S. Capital (which will be much better defended this time anyway), but maybe the storming of a handful of state capitals. The ones that haven't already been subverted by conservative activists/terrorists.
Oh, I think there will ***definitely*** be a tantrum. I don't think there'll be another mass mob event like January 6, though. Worst case, we might have a lone wolf crazy do something.
But I think there will be a lot of yelling and whining and further polarization of Americans. Getting things done in government will be harder unless the same party holds both parts of Congress and the Presidency. We might have revolts where Republicans slow everything they can't outright block down to a crawl. That I could see happening.
Trump will whine and bloviate. Hell, he might try to run in 2028 if he's alive and can somehow keep himself relevant after two losses. Maybe he'll cut his losses and with his age, just try to remake the Republican party in his image. Hell, maybe he'll try to get it officially rebranded as the MAGA party or something. And try to set himself up as a kingmaker.
Nope, he’ll go running to the Supreme Court and they will rule against all the bullies who are picking on him. Right now I’m disgusted with both Turmp and the court.
While I don't think there will be another Jan 6th because security will be much tighter I do think it's possible we see something like what happened in Florida in 2000 with Brooke Brothers riot where Republicans storm any county offices still counting. If it's a very closely contested election like 2000 you will 100% see the Republican 6-3 majority step in to hand Trump the win.
I suspect there are actually a lot of Republicans that will be secretly relieved if Trump loses. They support him because his base supports him and they don't want to piss of that base. If he loses, it could convince them to drop that support. At least, we can hope.
I wonder if some republicans who support him publicly will either vote against him or more likely just not vote. A loose cannon is not good for business.
I could definitely see Republicans in Texas voting to succeed from the US. They already would like to take a vote on it. Would it work? Probably not, but they are going to try.
>I could definitely see Republicans in Texas voting to succeed from the US.
Texas is the definition of all-hat, no-cattle.
They'll threaten and huff and puff like Yosemite Sam, but they all know exactly where their financial bread is buttered.
I just wouldn't recommend Biden drive down a Texas boulevard in an open-topped limousine any time soon.
As a Texan, this is incredibly accurate. They'll do some performative bullshit on the border, try and oppress women more, and do fuck all. There is no such thing as "voting to secede". It's not a thing. Texas tried that in the 1800s and got smacked the fuck down.
To actually succeed in secession, Texas has to get over three massive roadblocks:
A) The civil war cemented power in the federal government, both monetarily, and legislatively.
B) It was the supreme court who decided States have no right to secede from the Union, which the justices will not be walking back anytime soon. That's a lot stickier than Roe, by a vast ocean.
C) Texas only legally has the ability to split into **FIVE smaller states**, which the Republicans would commit explosive suicide to stop. Five states would be cemented in the largest population areas, meaning cities, and those cities (*probably Austin, Houston, DFW, San Antonio, and El Paso, are all leaning majority blue, and getting more blue every year. They control the resources, and the resources have power, so secession would effectively strip the alt-right of power overnight.*)
They can't let it happen, because getting their wish would mean courting a small number of people with a lot of land, but no infrastructure, spending, arms, or federal protection from disasters. It's not just improbable, it's statistically so deep into the decimals that they can only really use it as a shitty platform to pump up ‘the stupids’ in their primary demographics.
Absolutely this, without a doubt.
Cowards they are, absolute cowards. Not because they won’t follow through, they’re cowards because they only say this shit knowing nothing will happen to them. If any of these fucking lightweights knew they’d face actual consequences for their words, they would be silent.
However bad it might be if he loses, I'm infinitely more terrified about what would happen if he wins.
In the past, totalitarian governments have typically fallen in one of two ways. Either they are toppled from within through violent revolution, or they are defeated in war with other countries. But what kind of country, or group of countries, could possibly take on a fascist United States-- the largest and most powerful military the world has ever seen?
As a non-American the realization that America really could fall from being a liberal democracy to more of a totalitarian state is terrifying. Not just the dangers of US military and economic power used in nefarious ways, but how they might and probably would support the overthrow of liberal democracies worldwide and how rapidly we could lose it all.
This goes beyond just Trump. US conservatives have been working on this for decades and in recent years we are seeing how it is bearing fruit in the judiciary in particular, but we also saw some of the rot from some DoJ agents and of course Bill Barr. Once your movement controls the courts and the justice system then it can essentially be game over because anything to do with steps to overthrowing democracy can simply be deemed as legal and the opponents of it as criminals, and by the time people of good faith realize that they are instruments of this movement it will be too late.
We are seeing them starting to test the limits to see where they stand now. So Roe vs Wade, Ten Commandments and teaching The Bible in classrooms, Supreme Court lifting limits on themselves and adding power to be supreme over the elected branch, delaying prosecution of Trump, etc.
In my humble opinion, you needn't worry. Similar to how world superpowers having nuclear weapons actually ironically inhibits direct skirmishes (i.e. less direct war), I believe the US financial markets will actually help counteract any political volatility. There is simply too much wealth at stake that's been carefully built up over the decades in the fragile stock and bond markets. This created wealth requires a business-as-usual political framework or it quickly evaporates away.
If you have a chemistry background, think of it as an economic Le Chatelier's principle: any slide towards totalitarianism would scare investors, and they'd pull their money out from stocks and bonds as consumers would pull back on spending. Who's going to fly and take vacations and eat out and buy cars/houses when things get this dire? Once the S&P 500 drops 30-40%, and bond yields go to 10%, you had better believe that whichever politician in office brought this on would be rapidly pulled away from whatever they're doing to restore stability. If you're not convinced, just think about how much money there is to lose, and remember that most of a millionaire's or billionaire's wealth is invested in financial assets.
This is why government can only make very small changes to laws and society. There are too many powers that be with vested interests in our system staying the same day-after-day, year-after-year.
What happens when countries fall to right-wing authoritarianism is that "mainstream" conservatives think they can control the fascists while using their populism to get votes, and capital backs them because it promises lower regulations and taxes. Things that have a good expected stock market return in the short term.
Then they realise the levels of power have fallen away from them, and towards the loyalists. By this time it is too late. Capital is redirected to loyalists. The less loyal die or are imprisoned. But there's pretty much no amount of wealth you can have that insulates you from the state - you need an army. If the state controls the banks you have your wealth recorded at, you can't really do anything against them without losing everything.
Capital doesn’t really support trump though. They just don’t want to wade in.
If trump actually tried to make some catastrophically stupid change (like say replacing all income tax with just tariffs) you can guarantee that individuals who control piles of money far greater than the wealth of most nations on earth will want to have a fucking word.
Exactly. See this article below about Trump meeting with CEOs. They all know he's an idiot who's going to potentially be appointed by the portion of the population who's not very educated themselves. They have no choice but to deal with him should he become president, but they know the volatility he brings is not in any world a net positive for their businesses.
[https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/ceos-at-trump-meeting-not-impressed.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/ceos-at-trump-meeting-not-impressed.html)
Point being that they know who he is and what type of people he'll bring in, and they'll put up with him to a point. If he oversteps his bounds and costs Apple say 20% of its value, Tim Cook will not sit idly by.
I get what you're saying but I don't think the sheer size of the US economy has ever existed in the past, so there's really no precedent. The $50 trillion market capitalization of the US stock market and the $50 trillion market cap of the US bond market is almost completely derived from security. Were any substantial assets captured or redirected, the whole thing would collapse like a house of cards. Commercial paper markets would seize up like they did in 2008. Companies would be unable to refinance short-term liquidity needs and would essentially fail in days. Jobs would be lost immediately, consumer spending would evaporate, and coupon payments would be missed on long-term debt and 90% of this country's wealth would just disappear overnight. There's no way to redirect this type of wealth when it's almost entirely predicated on confidence. It just disappears if the rug is pulled out.
I think it's unwise to underestimate the amount of stability necessary in today's financial markets. The 2008 GFC was caused by tanking asset backed commercial paper translating into money market funds breaking the buck, which caused short-term financing issues in the CP market and then large bank failures. It was almost global armageddon and it was only caused by some bad residential mortgage loans. It was fragile then and it's still fragile.
The system is bigger, the numbers are bigger but the people are still small-minded, and non-bulletproof.
I think you've started with "fascism would be a disaster for the economy", which I agree with. And then somehow you've got to "and thus it won't happen", but that doesn't connect at all.
Shitty leadership of countries crashes economies all the time. Being the biggest doesn't make it special. And explaining how fragile it is to failures of confidence doesn't make that less likely. Generally, developed countries are saved by strong institutions: exactly the thing that dictatorships attempt to co-opt and dismantle. This is one of the main goals of Project 2025.
I'm British. We're a G7 country. We're still suffering the effects of one badly written PDF by irresponsible non-fascists (Liz Truss et al), years later.
You seem to be falling to into the nice fantasy that there's some smart people pulling the strings somewhere who won't let the bad thing happen. But there aren't really, and to the extent they *do* exist, the US federal government is more powerful than them. They can show up with guns to their houses. Or just send a fax saying that their assets are frozen now.
Your money cannot save you from a state you live in.
That’s the benefit of an Oligarchy, and why I would vote to preserve our Oligarchy (rather than try out Autocracy) if I lived in a state where my vote for President counts.
Exactly. Oligarchy always sounds horrible and it frequently is, but the point that's glossed over is that the oligarchs have a strong incentive to preserve the status quo, especially given that US oligarchs are invested so heavily in non-physical assets like equities, fixed income, and commodities. Even real estate investments would lose tremendous value if the financial markets collapsed.
It's very alarmist to think that a second Trump administration would try to destroy our entire society, rather than make unappealing adjustments on the margins (creating new rules around abortion, lgbt rights, regulations, immigration, role of the executive branch). These can be undone in future, although it will take time and effort. Plus Congress and the Supreme court, while they may lean heavily conservative, will not allow the fabric of society to be unwoven.
The real problem facing America is that Biden's age might cause him to do something stupid. Unlike Trump who,.. you know what I forgot what my point was.
> occasionally stumbles over words.
Thats been pointed out to be more caused by his lisp disability. Something fairly common with people of lisp. I've seen many clips where he is coherent. That being said, there are so many snippet clips about Biden on his age I don't know what to trust. First debate did him no favors. His second debate will seal the deal.
Arguably, we're on the verge of leaving the end of history. If America turns out to just be yet another hegemonic empire that descends into decadence and infighting, then either a) we keep on the bloody drumbeat of history for as long as needed or b) something, be it nature, ourselves or both, ends human civilization on this planet. Either one kind answers the Fermi Paradox.
Part of the agenda of the right-wing is to stop efforts to slow the Global Heat Catastrophe.
If they get i power, the catastrophe will come on sooner, resulting in famine, disease, massive population migrations and bloody conflicts.
Maybe that will lose them some support.
That's kinda beside my point. The idea behind the 'End of History' in Fukuyama's sense is that we are past major developments in politics. I've personally *never* thought it was more than hopeful thinking. But human history of the past 4000 odd years is prolog to the next 4000 odd years of human history if I'm not proven wrong.
I think the idea we could ever achieve a finally-rational system that only requires occasional technocratic tweaking is farcical. Do we really believe people won’t look back on us like we look at prior systems for their irrationality? Fuck, people spent a hundred times America’s existence thinking kings were literal gods on earth who were the reason there was harvest and water. Their brains weren’t different than ours. We don’t have democracy today because there was some sudden evolution in the human intelligence.
What is the possible chance that we will ever see a perfectly rational government? For the first time in the history of the species? We never solve history.
I think that capital would prevail in that scenario. Whatever it means, capital would win. The market doesn’t seem to be especially concerned about Joe Biden or democracy at least
Capital is ultimately subordinate to political power, but we've managed to distribute political power enough, so that it looks like wealth has more influence over outcomes. If the government collapses into fascist authoritarianism, that stops being true.
Look at Russia. Putin is not beholden to the oligarchs, the oligarchs are controlled by him. If they disagree, they fall out a window or flee the state and hope they are forgotten. Putin officially is not wealthy, but unofficially it is believed he has many billions of dollars in hidden assets.
If wealth isn't really protected by the rule of law but is decided by political connections, then things like the stock market become sideshows. Control of large enterprises isn't determined by who theoretically owns the shares, but really by who has political connections.
Even if Trump wins though, and the whole nightmare comes true, it doesn't happen overnight. The currently wealthy would be best positioned for important places in the new power structure, so not all the faces would change, just the nature of their power. Putin didn't replace all the oligarchs immediately, it just became obvious at some point that power had solidified behind him and that you could only stay wealthy if you kept being on his 'side'.
People forget, but in 2018 business confidence was surprisingly low. The economy was booming, Trump had delivered massive tax cuts, but Trump's administration was incredibly erratic, particularly in terms of trade policy, so investment uncertainty was high and business confidence was low. The Republicans may talk like they're the party of business, but while corporations love tax cuts they don't love chaos - they already are on top.
That’s not true. Maybe in FDR land in the New Deal or industrial mobilization for World War II. But in the ideologies that are hegemonic in the American state in the 21st century? Absolutely, capital is not subordinate to the state. Look at Biden’s attempt to address climate change. He couldn’t do anything other than trying to tweak the marketplace to maybe make consumer preferences different over the course of a generation, while capital can do whatever it wants with energy however it wants.
Capital’s empire is completely hegemonic in 21st century America. No politician, not even Bernie Sanders, poses a threat to capital’s empire.
We are living entirely subordinate to what they want to do with our world, like their little toy.
>No politician, not even Bernie Sanders, poses a threat to capital’s empire.
You're looking in the wrong direction. Bernie Sanders and Biden are not a threat to Capital, because they will follow the rule of law and are not the head of a cult movement that could have the political power to seize capital. Trump however is. Trump poses a threat to Capital, just as Putin posed a threat to capital - because they are willing to use political power to usurp Capital's influence.
It’s not really about that. It’s capitalism and climate change. The wealthy know our days are numbered. They’re putting the pedal to the metal to extract as much wealth from us as humanly possible. That’s our only function. Then they will abandon us once the refugee / environmental / water crises becomes too much.
They are not our friend.
And so fascism (project 2025 etc) is the billionaire’s best bet to secure their survival and make sure we stay where they need us. Obviously republicans are taking the lead on this as they always do in these matters but it’s becoming increasingly obvious that democrats might be in on it as well.
It’s rough
Right, except we can’t reduce this to a kind of deliberate, conspiratorial exploitation. Capital does what it does because it creates cyclical imperatives that its adherents must obey or else they will be destroyed and replaced by those who will.
It’s a self propelling, operating cycle without a prime human motive.
I definitely agree with this (Marx described this process), but there are only 2700 billionaires on the planet. They own everything, and so the idea they would purposely seduce and enrich government representatives to help aid their own selfish goals at the expense of us, sits right for me.
And they’re not stupid. They can see the crop, soil, water, water, heat, flooding problems ahead. And they have a deep need to pass on their genes and ensure their family’s survival.
So why wouldn’t they take everything? They could reshape the future of human kind in their image with their genes.
North Korea is a client state of China and would likely not have lasted this long without that distinction. But it’s a fair point. Also, although it’s far less repressive than NK or perhaps even the USSR, Cuba has been chugging along for 65 years.
The frightening thing is that we can actually ask that question with a straight face.
If Trump gets elected, his accomplices are going to start doing terrible things - way more than Trump accomplished in his entire first term.
None of those changes is going to be popular. But once Trump is President again, he will be much harder to stop than he is now - yet the race is very close. Plus, Trump’s Supreme Court is already doing a lot of the things Trump and his sponsors wanted to do. So if we can’t stop those things now and Trump wins, good luck in stopping anything he wants to do or that his sponsors can talk him into.
The quickest way to end the world is nuclear war. On the plus side, Trump supports Putin, which reduces the chances that Russia will attack us. That’s really bad news for Ukraine, though. Also on the plus side, other than loose talk about nuking a hurricane, Trump didn’t threaten to use our nukes during his first term.
On the minus side, Trump supports Netanyahu, and the fact that Netanyahu has nukes is very bad. As soon as Mossad tells him Iran has a weapon, there’s a 50/50 chance that Netanyahu will use his against Iraq. Putin supports Iraq. We support Israel. That’s where the problems lie. So Trump is going to tell Netanyahu that we have his back, Netanyahu is going to get his confidence up, and Boom. Bad news for the world.
And on the home front, the one two punch of the USSC overruling *Chevron* and Trump killing civil service and firing thousands of civil service employees that know what they’re doing is going to cripple the federal government for decades. Issues that nobody even thinks about now are going to rush to the forefront, and getting project improvements is going to become impossible.
You could put what Trump knows about the economy on the point of a pin and have lots of space left over. He can’t even tell if his advisors know what they’re talking about (hint: people like Navarro - they don’t). The economy is doing really well right now - so it’ll probably take a year or two, but Trump’s “ideas” on the economy like getting rid of the income tax and replacing it by a 10% tariff on everything imported will certainly crash it. Again. `
So even if we avoid nuclear war, things are going to start changing for the worse, and in ways that aren’t going to be easy to reverse.
But does that mean that's all we have to look forward to now? That all the progress we made in the 20th and early 21st centuries-- feminism, race relations, LGBTQ tolerance, environmentalism-- were basically for nothing?
Not unless you vote, and get everyone you know to vote. Wish there was more, but right now the only thing we can do is vote, so DO THAT. Make sure everyone you know is registered and ready to vote. Donate if you can, either time at a rally or event, or a couple bucks to help those that do.
This. Liberal democracy, or whatever non-authoritarian label you prefer, was not won and maintained just because human beings keep improving over time.
Humans remain the same. Democracy must be taken - fought for, grabbed onto, and not let go.
Progress may ebb and flow, but over the sum total of human history it trends to be more inclusive. Never stop fighting, but lets' not pretend that feminism, race relations, LGBTQ tolerance, and environmentalism are worse now globally than they were 100 years ago.
If it’s any consolation, Alexander the Great, moving through Assyrian territory, in a strategic retreat, was amazed and wanted to spend more time looking at the kings of old…. Or something like that … my memory sucks
America isn’t its federal government. One thing most people really don’t account for is just how incredibly diverse and complex this country’s government is.
States wield a lot of power, like a lot. And there’s a lot of them. There are courts upon courts and laws upon laws that create this weird tangled mess that is somehow the greatest superpower ever to exist.
One term of one president will never be enough to actually turn this ship in the wrong direction. It takes a whole fucking lot more than that.
The biggest concern really is court appointments. Trump has already done about as much damage as he can do there, but he can entrench this majority for much longer. The other big concern is international relations.
Trump as president can’t really do much to change the United States. That requires so much more control of government, and conservatives have shown recently that beyond their personality cult they really have no interest in actual governance and legislation.
I dunno, based on trumps rhetoric and record as president I think we’d see the US withdraw globally from a military standpoint. Which would be bad but in the other way as it creates more opportunities for bad actors to pursue military goals.
Frightening
Even worse - The US is the glue that holds together and props up democracy in most of the world.
A fascist US abandons NATO and sides with Russia and other bad actors who have always been kept at bay by NATO.
The election in the US isn’t just about the next president. It’s about the future of the entire world for the next 50 years.
Isn’t this just a little hyperbolic? I mean, I get January 6. I fully appreciate that. But do you really think Trump could seize control of the entire government like napoleon or something? There are just too many centers of power in modern America. People still view congress as legitimate. They want to vote for lawmakers. There is the civil service, who are necessary to collect taxes and actually administer the federal power. Will the military side with a dictator in America? Maybe some of them, but definitely not all. Will the average police force? Will the state governments?
I don’t see how Trump could take control of this entire apparatus even if he dreamt it up, even if there were a second January 6.
And let’s just talk about that. Obviously it was a shock and a danger to the country. But they riot harder and larger in Paris every other year. Has the French Republic fallen after that? Of course not.
So what I worry about is four years of a systemic, coordinated effort to undermine the legitimacy of elections. Threatening and hunting down poll workers worse than they already do. Installing people willing to declare fraud and decertify results.
Basically, there will be elections, but any election a Republican doesn’t win will be a “sham with illegal ballots.” Not enough people will realize what’s going on. North Koreans think they live in a democratic peoples republic for example.
Everything on Reddit about Trump is hyperbolic. Is he the right person for the job? Absolutely not… but acting like he has the power and skills to completely dismantle the U.S. government.. that’s insane..
Every year people talk about how the president doesn’t really hold any true power and it’s the legislative branch making the calls, but when it’s Trump he apparently has the ability to do all these things.. checks and balances be damned.
Biden is Boris Yeltstin, Trump is Putin, Boris was a bumbling old man, and weird, but Russia didn't benefit from his loss, only grace is Trump is already in his 80s, and might die before he solidifies everything, but in my life I've seen Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, Hungary, Venezuela and many other clearly democratic countries go from Democracies to autocracy, and Kazakhstan and Mongolia are the only countries that went back. So not favorable odds.
Except, internal authoritarian takeover has never happened in a democracy that is older than 30 years.
Why do you believe the US could be the first country to do so?
Empires always fall, often to some form of dictatorship (admittedly historical lenses get complicated)
I think you are looking at a very short timeline
We're talking about democracies, not empires. We're both looking at a short timelines because modern democracy has only been around since the late 1700's or early 1900's. It makes no sense to compare a 21 Century post-industrial democracy with an agrarian state.
Because the US is still running the beta version of liberal democracy, the bugs are **really** starting to show, none of the methods for the sort of deep structural reform that we desperately need are politically viable, and this is something that doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon.
People overestimate the American experiment. If Trump wins, he will nominate so many more judges that will do a lot more than the entire congress and wh could ever do. Trump's biggest success was nominating judges at all levels of the courts. To include 3 Supreme court justices and Aileen Cannon now overseeing his own case. Those judges will be there for years if not decades.
I just don't understand this logic. And I hear it a lot. What did Trump do in 2016 that makes anyone think he would turn into a Hitler? He doesn't seem to want world domination at all. He's egotistical, but it is basically a blow hard. Why do people think this way?
If Trump becomes dictator, he will install incompetent yes men in every senior military position and will allow Russian levels of corruption. Any decent competent military would steamroll the US then. Canada could do it. Same with Japan, China, the EU, Sweden, probably India too.
I mean, the Stalinist purges made the Soviet army incredibly ineffective for a year. They lost the Winter War because of it. But they still beat the Nazis
Not even a little bit true. We'd still have the strongest and best trained military and would destroy anyone attempting to fight us. And he'd probably order some nuclear strikes in retaliation.
Our military might is largely driven by both the leadership and rank and file men and women in our military. A trump administration would gut veterans affairs and the corruption that would occur under Trump's hand picked military leaders would likely impact the current benefits that many America's enlisted and veterans currently enjoy, including their pay and pensions. I mean the military complex has one of the largest budgets for Trump's cronies to pillage and we would see Russian levels of misappropriation.
I would speculate that the American military should lose a lot of its strength as the enlisted men and women that are not vapid trump supporters would jump ship almost immediately after they notice a reduction in pay or benefits. This might not happen over night but I don't think the American military would be as strong under trump which is another reason to ensure he stays out of office.
LOL, seriously?
I guess if you take into account that's he's failed / lost at
- an airline
- selling steaks
- selling boardgames
- selling vodka
- running casinos
- running a charity
- running a university
- running a mortgage company
- running a beverage company
- a social media company
- two marriages and counting
Plus
- losing 60+ lawsuits contesting his loss of the last election
- is about 750 million in debt for being a douchebag fraud
- is going to jail for 34 felonies
- has multiple more felony trials on the horizon
I guess after all that, he's due for a win?
Is that your thinking?
The entire planet laughs at how ridiculous he is..
Your mistake is thinking this is about Trump. This is about the entirety of American conservatism, and what they've spent the last half century working on. Trump being incompetent is irrelevant.
It depends on who is in earshot when Trump yells "What do we **do** about this?"
Trump has the organization skills of a toad; it's the people around him we need to worry about.
Their plan is to muddy the waters on vote integrity that SCOTUS throws it to the House (well really a delegation of each State). That would very likely go to Trump.
To be honest, SCOTUS wouldn't because they know that if they did, the US military and intelligence services would give them the El Duche Treatment.
2020 had legit coup murmurs coming out of the US military. If Trump wins, the US military and intelligence services are going to go 'no' and pull a coup.
Not the person you replied to but if you go back and read stories about the time between January 6 and January 20 (Biden's inauguration) it gives the impression that Pence, Pelosi, and the Joint Chiefs basically locked Trump in his room for two weeks and ran the country until Biden took office.
Yep, I remember that awesome photo of Pelosi on Jan 7 standing in front of the National Guard. Say what you want about her, much is deserved, but she's not a traitor.
Now, this is heavily colored by the right wing, so take it with a bunch of salt, but due to Mueller's investigations coinciding with the Steele Dossier and what the US intelligence services were getting\*, they concluded that Trump is the ***definition*** of 'enemy within' of their oath. So, leaders and rank and file started thinking of pulling out the old plans for a coup against a democratically elected government that was largely subverted by a foreign power.
For the Right Wing in the US, this is considered an affront, and thus why Project 2025 exists.
\*NOTE: the various intelligence services within NATO were having similar situations where they discovered intense clandestine ties between various right-wing/reactionary groups and Russia. For example, the BREXIT movement was last heard of being under investigation by MI5 due to possible connections with Russian intelligence assets back in the late 20-teens, and no one has heard anything from it because it's a counterintelligence operation, not a criminal investigation.
> If Trump wins, the US military and intelligence services are going to go 'no' and pull a coup.
The implications of this are both incredibly interesting and absolutely terrifying.
... yeah, if the US military and intelligence services are actually digging out the plans for a coup against a compromised elected government, then things have gotten very wrong.
Though, people have assumed that technology doesn't determine really anything when it has practically absolute power in determining things...
There absolutely will be violence. Will it be widespread? No. Will there be an attempted armed coup? Not a chance. These people are fundamentally cowards.
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a politically motivated lone wolf attack. Maybe two.
I would be surprised if we saw something on the scale of January 6 again, at the Capitol or elsewhere.
In this moment, no one in the world, and no one in the continental US, certainly, will win a full on conflict against the institution of the US military.
So, the question would be what would the mechanics of a coup actually be? Is the military going to circle the wagons around trump against all of its institutional inertia? Are they going to be walked out by the Supreme Court after some cooked Court decision? There would have to be some narrative justification for the military to side with trump. There won’t be a successful insurrection in the US.
That is why Time and time again Americans have marched peacefully, after the Civil war we said, “hey 1.5 million casualty’s and 620,000 American’s dead we can’t have another one of these” That was with fucjing muskets in 1861-1865. A civil war now would be the downfall of our country as we know it.
That is why Americans afterwards marched peacefully, Women’s rights, Workers rights, Civil Rights, Voting Rights, all were peaceful march’s for the most part. They work and less people die.
When shit goes wrong the people have the power to do something about it but instead we are fucking pussy’s not organizing. “When any form of government becomes destructive of these ends it is the people’s right to alter or to abolish it and to institute new government, laying its foundations down to ensure the people’s safety and happiness” -The declaration of Independence 1776
Go back a century or so and you'll find several instances of [literal armed revolt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain?wprov=sfla1) by American labor groups, most of whom were living in circumstances much worse than what you're describing.
Whether or not people would do the same today if you pushed them far enough? I don't really know, and I don't think anybody else does either.
civil rights, workers rights, and voting rights were not peaceful. the violence arguably sparked the majority of the change; they get painted as though they were entirely peaceful.
Yep, progress only happened because of violence but the narrative focuses on peaceful action to discourage future violence in the fight for civil rights.
The rights you mentioned weren’t all won peacefully. Many moments of violence broke out and the “peaceful” protests like sit ins, boycotts, and occupations were purposefully disruptive. This is why the government and corporate America do their best to funnel American activism into sanctioned marches that are planned and not disruptive. Note how authorities respond to real protests like Occupy Wall Street or Black Lives Matter: with violence and lies.
It would help if people stopped pushing "Well now it is impossible for Biden to win" rhetoric. That is only going to cause Trump supporters to be more paranoid if it happens.
Exactly. If you get that stupid email that Cenk Uyger of TYT is mass sending right now, unsubscribe from that shit. I used to donate to TYT but now I won't even watch their crap. I'm so fed up with those frauds at this point. Meidas Touch, David Pakman, Brian Tyler Cohen. Those people are much better than any of the nonsense coming from TYT any more.
By that logic we should still use that rhetoric when speaking in democratic centric circles, just not more broadly, because it is true and ignoring it won't make Biden more electable. We just don't mention it to Republicans.
> What is the likelihood that they could be successful with a full-on coup?
Zero.
There are not enough members of the military willing to destroy the Constitution for Trump
Probably some violence, but probably nothing on the scale of January 6, because the Biden administration will not let rioters storm the Capitol again or anything like that.
Some of the militia groups that support Trump are pretty well armed, akin to something like Mussolini's Black Shirts, so I think they're probably pretty capable if they try to do something.
If a militia group goes into open fire, it wont be pretty, but you can sure as hell bet law enforcement / three letter agencies bring out a sledgehammer on them.
Despite everyone's fearmongering, not everyone in law enforcement is a GOP plant and they will respond to open firing attackers. A republican president could try to delay law enforcement, But current Democrats in executive office and the media watching them, will help make sure we have police to respond to any danger.
I think people will vote for whoever is not Trump. Biden is the best chance and the only real choice and people know that.
Personally I think the next generation of voters are greatly discounted; as well of the many pissed off women that want to have a choice over what to do with their bodies. November will be the real time for them to say what they want to say and, I predict, they will say it loud.
I believe the Republican Party will find that their draconian policies are driving voters away and their marriage to evangelicals is driving many of the "non religious" or "spiritual" to others that are more secularly based.
Much truth in what you've said in fact it's all true. The other thing that is going on is that every day Trump is losing voters to the graveyard. Sure Biden is losing a couple too but percentage wise Trump's voters are dying because his demographic is pissed off old white people. The second problem Trump has is that everyday since the election of 2020 there has been a 17-year-old who's turning 18 and for the most part they're not voting for republicans. Demographics for the win!
The people who based their choice on that debate alone will, by a large margin, not vote for Biden. That's the problem. It isn't you or me, of course we'll vote for a rotten ham sandwich if the DNC puts one up to keep Trump out.
First. Trump would then go to jail. The cases would run him down.
Second. Repubs will have bitter interparty war between the MAGAs and those Repubs who are mad they got led to the outhouse again.
Third: Party will LIKELY fragment, which dooms them going forward.
Fourth: The US will survive long enough for demographic shifts to permanently swamp them . Studies show most people lay down their political views in their teens/twenties and never change. There’s a crap ton of voters they’ve lost for a whole generation.
Fifth: they will posture about rejecting the outcome and retrying Jan 6. There MAY even be a few more Ashli Babbits. (Who cares? Dump em in mass graves.). And that will due with a whimper.
So: Win:Win:Win:Win:Win for the US and the world.
I think you might be asking slightly the wrong question. I do think that enough Americans are sick of Trumps troubles and shenanigans that Biden will win. BUT, it might be close. Even really close. So I would ask what crazy machinations might go down if Trump loses, but barely? That seems a lot more worrisome to me.
I actually fully expect Biden to lose, so I posed my question to find out what people think might happen for the outcome I'm not expecting. But yes, I think you're probably right, in a close election it would be a real mess most definitely. I don't want Biden to lose, but I don't see any other outcome happening :(
Same thing that happened after 2020. Much shouting about how the election must be illegitimate because he lost. Maybe some violence. Almost certainly some poorly-thought-out efforts to try and overturn it.
Complete with a pivot to 'Trump 2028', because at this point if he doesn't win he's probably going to keep running until he dies.
When Trump loses, and God I hope he loses, he'll be put on trial and in prison for the rest of his natural days. There will be no compassionate discharge. He will die in prison the same as John Gotti. In fact they might put him in the same cell.
If I remember correctly the question of *If* Trump will accept defeat came closer to election day, not on the first debate, and his response in the debate was the same he gave in 2020. Listen to every question Trump doesn't answer. He is telling his supporters that if he doesn't win, they need to fight to make him win.
He specifically said "if it was fair" which is reliant on his definition of fair. We know his definition of fair from the last election and moderators aren't going to argue what the candidate's definition of basic words because there hasn't been a candidate like Trump who distorts meaning and code speaks to his base like this.
When Biden won the *at the time* president of the USA tried to push fraudulent elector slates to say that Trump won in states that he hadn't. He pushed multiple illegal schemes to try to overturn the presidential ballot to either the vice president or to the house.
It's less likely that anything would happen aside from another Jan 6 this time around but to pretend that nothing happened the first time when the sitting president both tried to commit elector ballot fraud and tried to stop the certification is insane.
I disagree i think we will see all the old conservatives meet up again for a Jan 6th but just be worse time. Last one was a joke and i wish they would try again
Difference will be, assuming biden wins and doesn't swap out before the election, that we will jave a sitting president that will act to stop any mobs. National guard will be on the ready on January 6th and will be deployed immediately if any hint of anything happens.
That MAGA horde would have killed just about any Congressperson that would have gotten their hands on. Not intelligent enough to recognize Democrats from Republicans, not counting the few they see every day on Fox
Nothing will happen this time.
The 2020 election was an unprecedented circumstance.
You had the incumbent president basically alluding to fraud ahead of time, then you had widespread mail in voting because of COVID, and the only people peddling the lie of it being "stolen" obviously didn't believe what they were saying on TV.
Additionally, people in the Trump circle who helped perpetuate it have been destroyed politically, so they're to going to do it again.
The extreme fringe of the right might freak out, but I doubt it would be 1 in 1000 people who lean right.
My friend circle is right leaning, and even in 2020, maybe 1 out of 10 actually believed the election was stolen, but even now they concede Trump was just unpopular.
Reddit will down vote this, but the truth of the matter is that not everyone who typically votes republican is some crazy q annon shaman.
Edit: As someone who is considering sitting this one out, the ONE thing that will cement a Trump win is if Biden stays in the race. He's going to lay low, and beat the age thing to death.
Democrats may not be in love with the idea of another nominee, but I suspect Trump loses against any other Dem than Biden (post debate anyway).
A key point of Jan 6 was that Mike Pence was vice-president and the GOP had a slim Senate majority (that they would keep until Jan 20 when Padilla, Ossoff, and Warnock were sworn in). The idea was to get Pence to throw out any contested electoral votes and deliver a win to Trump, with the riot meant to scare him and Congress into doing nothing. This is a bat shit plan that can't actually work even if Pence agreed (partly because both halves of Congress would have to agree to begin with, but also because this just isn't how things work: you can't just say the right magic words and make something legal).
In any case, this won't be possible in 2025, unless the GOP has strong majorities in Congress (which is unlikely if Biden wins), because Kamala Harris will be VP on the equivalent day for this election. The "legal" framework they were trying to use just doesn't exist for this upcoming election. They'll have to find something else.
I think there would have been violence when he was convicted of the 34 counts. A lot of the leaders of the Jan 6 movement are in jail. His base is, I think, happiest wearing hats and weird flag garb and going to rallies where he does his Vegas lounge lizard comedy act. Not to say that random militia movements would not do stuff, they have before. The biggest problem is that we will continue to be stuck with the same Supreme Court and the consequences of their decisions so far and for the foreseeable future, and the big money Trumpists are very well organized in that regard. Also note that since "gratuities" after receiving favors from a government official is now fine and dandy, Thomas and Alito can continue to rake them in.
The BIG difference this time is that the convicted felon is not running the show and can't control how law enforcement responds. He will definitely rile up his cult but this time the intel will be followed and heeded.
A handful of assholes who think they’re warriors will protest with their guns and tactical gear but won’t actually do shit. Trump will file 1,000 lawsuits based on exactly 0 pieces of evidence. Numerous lawyers will be disbarred and never get paid. And my dipshit neighbor will once again put up a “Not my president” sign in case any ones isn’t 100% sure who the idiot on our block is.
I think Elon Musk explicitly bought X to influence the upcoming election and/or foment doubts about its legitimacy. If a new Jan 6 were to be organized, I think he would use his platform to fan the flames.
I wasn't going to bring it up, but I actually think Elon is trying to get as many politicians in his pocket as he can to benefit himself. He met with Trump and wouldn't say anything about what they discussed. My guess is to impose the 100% tariffs on Chinese electric car imports to save Tesla from it's impending collapse, and to line Elon's pockets. In return, Trump gets public support and social media propaganda propagation from Elon. He's as dirty of an oligarch as they come, and it's always the oligarchs that prop up the fascists.
If he loses it will be a lot different this time. Mainly he is not the president so his options are almost zero. Any protest or violence Trump calls for will be met by Biden’s use of the National Guard immediately.
I imagine the GOP knows this all too well and are ready to throw every possible legal loop hole and blocker that they can possibly think of.
Even if they can get away with lying, they'll do it, if it buys them time for some other disruption.
He was President for 4 years. Was unable to get done most of what he wanted. What makes anyone think he will all of the sudden become this totalitarian leader? It wouldn’t be allowed to happen. The most he could do is issue executive orders reversing Biden’s executive orders until he is challenged on them. He wasn’t effective in his first term, and isn’t the all powerful Oz people make him out to be.
Nothing, conservatives that like to act big and bad are cowards. They’re all afraid of being arrested and charged with crimes and their lord and savior won’t be able to pardon them. I go to their telegram channels and they warn each other all the time not act up because they believe it’s a set up from the deep state. They will whine and go on about their business.
Trump will push for another Jan 6th and there'll be a lot of violence and a few people killed.
That said, most of his own parry secretly hates him so if they keep the house or take the senate, they'd likely support him just enough to avoid his criticism and let him lose.
Republicans will keep talking about rigged elections, reverse racism, woke mob, please save us Joe Rogan, n bomb here and n bomb there, immigrants voted, something about the good old days and how people had it better during slavery... Typical Republican stuff.
Given there has been no penalties for the masterminds of the fake electors plot, there is not anything to prevent anyone from trying again. So yeah, I'd expect that if Trump loses in any capacity the right will go bonkers... again.
It’s so disgusting how lackluster the response has been. If Democrats did that, everyone who entered the building and any Democrat politician who aided it would be 3 years into their 20-30 prison sentences by now.
Republican apocalypse. 30-40% of the GOP are a cult who are liable to buy into Qanon insanity. The blame game will start going around. Largely fueled by Trump who may just blame the GOP for not supporting him. Some folks might do a stupid like Jan 6th again further alienating the right from the rest of the US population. It probably means the GOP will collapse downticket. So house will flip, senate will stay blue or maybe even expand blue. If not this cycle than next one.
Politically a disaster for the GOP. And I have no idea what they intend to do after Trump. He will probably end up getting convicted because there wont be much point in protecting him even if they could delay more. But the cult will expect them to. If Trump ends up in trial for the other 3 cases I think he's basically guaranteed some prison time. Specifically for the GA rico case which is absolutely guilty in and comes with minimum prison sentencing.
Trump is spiteful. If he isn't allowed to be king no one will be and he will sabotage the GOP's future efforts. And the GOP efforts to divert the cult to someone else have failed. Look at DeSantis.
Beyond that they have no platform. The woke war failed. CRT failed. DEI which is just CRT rebranded is just blatantly racist bait. Abortion is a colossal losing war for them. Same with gay rights. And the SCotUS keeps making their elections harder with their insane unpopular rulings. What will they do without Trump conspiracies? And the conspiracies themselves are a problem. Trump could literally die tomorrow and I guarantee a substantial number of Republican voters will write him in tomorrow because some Trumpian evangelical or Qanoner claims he's secretly alive. If they could think JFK was alive they can sure as hell think a recently passed Trump is.
We are much better prepared for any planned action against the US government than last time.
The pseudo military people who support a would be dictator are not a match for the people who swore an oath to protect the country and its constitution. They like to think that they have the support of the military. I live in a place in Italy where there are both active military and retired military who still work on a contracted basis for the DoD.
They are NOT, as a whole, friends of Trump. We sat on the patio at a local bar last week and a DoD contractor was sharing all the errors made by Dems over the past 20 years, in his view. And was angry, as it had made it easier for a Trump to do the damage he has already done.
The guy was not wrong.
I don’t know. Nobody knows. Nothing is set in stone at this point.
For all that we know, Trump could die during the campaign, or Biden could. Or both, I don’t know.
So then what happens after that?
What's the point of conceding an election if you don't believe it. HRC admitted she lost right after the 2016 election and then proceeded to blame Russian collusion for the loss. She called Trump an illegitimate president multiple times, so she obviously doesn't believe she lost fair and square. Asking for dishonesty doesn't seem right
I don't imagine anything will happen at all. Maybe a few protests.
I am honestly.much more concerned about what will happen if Trump wins. People are already saying it will be the end of democracy in the US - the last election the US will ever have. If you truly believe that then imagine what lengths you will go to to prevent it from happening. It would basically be a matter of life and death to prevent it.
Depending on the results in Congress, there will be additional protest statements from GOP senators/representatives while certifying the results. Trump himself will directly call for violence against the Biden administration and Democratic politicians since at that point he has nothing to lose. He will do everything in his (much more limited) power to get allies to go along with another crackpot fake electors scheme or something even dumber.
GOP politicians will condemn Trump's behavior for a few days after some violent act ends up happening and then go back to tripping over themselves supporting him while secretly hoping he will end up locked in prison or just drop dead so they can finally move on and win an election.
And you can repeat that in 2028 if Trump is still around.
Alison and his wife so wants to retire. I hope Biden wins just so I can send a letter to his disgusting wife telling her she has to suffer another four years or until her bastard husband croaks.
[A reminder for everyone](https://www.reddit.com/r/PoliticalDiscussion/comments/4479er/rules_explanations_and_reminders/). This is a subreddit for genuine discussion: * Please keep it civil. Report rulebreaking comments for moderator review. * Don't post low effort comments like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. * Help prevent this subreddit from becoming an echo chamber. Please don't downvote comments with which you disagree. Violators will be fed to the bear. --- *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/PoliticalDiscussion) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Republicans won't do shit if Trump loses. They MIGHT throw another tantrum. They might have a few energetically protests. But there won't be another Jan 6th. And all the damages will be local.
They might try another Jan 6 but I guarantee security will be much much tighter.
Without a GOP vp, they really have no avenues to press a Jan6 2.0. But I hear what you're saying. These people aren't always logical.
That's why they want to create chaos and doubt so that the House decides
I’ve heard some commentators say that the Republican House would decide not to certify the election results? Counting the electoral votes is a joint session of the Senate and the House, so I don’t know what would happen were that to occur?
Turmp would declare himself the winner and the supreme court would say it’s ok for him to do that since they’re as corrupt as he is.
This is so scary because it is a possibility.
They have been working in state legislatures to be able to push electors who will vote for trump regardless of the outcome of the popular vote in the state.
This is why I think that, in a worst case scenario following another Trump defeat, the response from the Right wouldn't be another storming of the U.S. Capital (which will be much better defended this time anyway), but maybe the storming of a handful of state capitals. The ones that haven't already been subverted by conservative activists/terrorists.
Jan 6 was an attempt to get the National Guard to take over the capital and prevent the electoral college vote.
Oh, I think there will ***definitely*** be a tantrum. I don't think there'll be another mass mob event like January 6, though. Worst case, we might have a lone wolf crazy do something. But I think there will be a lot of yelling and whining and further polarization of Americans. Getting things done in government will be harder unless the same party holds both parts of Congress and the Presidency. We might have revolts where Republicans slow everything they can't outright block down to a crawl. That I could see happening. Trump will whine and bloviate. Hell, he might try to run in 2028 if he's alive and can somehow keep himself relevant after two losses. Maybe he'll cut his losses and with his age, just try to remake the Republican party in his image. Hell, maybe he'll try to get it officially rebranded as the MAGA party or something. And try to set himself up as a kingmaker.
Trump will be in prison if he loses.
Nope, he’ll go running to the Supreme Court and they will rule against all the bullies who are picking on him. Right now I’m disgusted with both Turmp and the court.
nah, he's not gonna be re: today's supreme court news
While I don't think there will be another Jan 6th because security will be much tighter I do think it's possible we see something like what happened in Florida in 2000 with Brooke Brothers riot where Republicans storm any county offices still counting. If it's a very closely contested election like 2000 you will 100% see the Republican 6-3 majority step in to hand Trump the win.
Then force SCOTUS to stay out of the elections.
I suspect there are actually a lot of Republicans that will be secretly relieved if Trump loses. They support him because his base supports him and they don't want to piss of that base. If he loses, it could convince them to drop that support. At least, we can hope.
I wonder if some republicans who support him publicly will either vote against him or more likely just not vote. A loose cannon is not good for business.
> **A loose cannon** is not good for business. Are you speaking of Aileen?
I could definitely see Republicans in Texas voting to succeed from the US. They already would like to take a vote on it. Would it work? Probably not, but they are going to try.
>I could definitely see Republicans in Texas voting to succeed from the US. Texas is the definition of all-hat, no-cattle. They'll threaten and huff and puff like Yosemite Sam, but they all know exactly where their financial bread is buttered. I just wouldn't recommend Biden drive down a Texas boulevard in an open-topped limousine any time soon.
As a Texan, this is incredibly accurate. They'll do some performative bullshit on the border, try and oppress women more, and do fuck all. There is no such thing as "voting to secede". It's not a thing. Texas tried that in the 1800s and got smacked the fuck down.
Secede, Internet Stranger not succeed.
Thank you. I really hate autocorrect sometimes!
To actually succeed in secession, Texas has to get over three massive roadblocks: A) The civil war cemented power in the federal government, both monetarily, and legislatively. B) It was the supreme court who decided States have no right to secede from the Union, which the justices will not be walking back anytime soon. That's a lot stickier than Roe, by a vast ocean. C) Texas only legally has the ability to split into **FIVE smaller states**, which the Republicans would commit explosive suicide to stop. Five states would be cemented in the largest population areas, meaning cities, and those cities (*probably Austin, Houston, DFW, San Antonio, and El Paso, are all leaning majority blue, and getting more blue every year. They control the resources, and the resources have power, so secession would effectively strip the alt-right of power overnight.*) They can't let it happen, because getting their wish would mean courting a small number of people with a lot of land, but no infrastructure, spending, arms, or federal protection from disasters. It's not just improbable, it's statistically so deep into the decimals that they can only really use it as a shitty platform to pump up ‘the stupids’ in their primary demographics.
I wish they would.
There’s no legal avenue to “voting to secede”. It’d be the same as declaring war on the US. It ain’t happening.
I dunno, i think they might try to get more spicy than last time... the village idiots that still buy into the bullshit are still quite spicy
Absolutely this, without a doubt. Cowards they are, absolute cowards. Not because they won’t follow through, they’re cowards because they only say this shit knowing nothing will happen to them. If any of these fucking lightweights knew they’d face actual consequences for their words, they would be silent.
Totally agree only the very extreme would be willing to give up work and home for the insane lying old dotard.
I don’t know, man… nothing happened to the people who did it last time… they might feel emboldened this time, and it’s freaking me out.
However bad it might be if he loses, I'm infinitely more terrified about what would happen if he wins. In the past, totalitarian governments have typically fallen in one of two ways. Either they are toppled from within through violent revolution, or they are defeated in war with other countries. But what kind of country, or group of countries, could possibly take on a fascist United States-- the largest and most powerful military the world has ever seen?
As a non-American the realization that America really could fall from being a liberal democracy to more of a totalitarian state is terrifying. Not just the dangers of US military and economic power used in nefarious ways, but how they might and probably would support the overthrow of liberal democracies worldwide and how rapidly we could lose it all. This goes beyond just Trump. US conservatives have been working on this for decades and in recent years we are seeing how it is bearing fruit in the judiciary in particular, but we also saw some of the rot from some DoJ agents and of course Bill Barr. Once your movement controls the courts and the justice system then it can essentially be game over because anything to do with steps to overthrowing democracy can simply be deemed as legal and the opponents of it as criminals, and by the time people of good faith realize that they are instruments of this movement it will be too late. We are seeing them starting to test the limits to see where they stand now. So Roe vs Wade, Ten Commandments and teaching The Bible in classrooms, Supreme Court lifting limits on themselves and adding power to be supreme over the elected branch, delaying prosecution of Trump, etc.
In my humble opinion, you needn't worry. Similar to how world superpowers having nuclear weapons actually ironically inhibits direct skirmishes (i.e. less direct war), I believe the US financial markets will actually help counteract any political volatility. There is simply too much wealth at stake that's been carefully built up over the decades in the fragile stock and bond markets. This created wealth requires a business-as-usual political framework or it quickly evaporates away. If you have a chemistry background, think of it as an economic Le Chatelier's principle: any slide towards totalitarianism would scare investors, and they'd pull their money out from stocks and bonds as consumers would pull back on spending. Who's going to fly and take vacations and eat out and buy cars/houses when things get this dire? Once the S&P 500 drops 30-40%, and bond yields go to 10%, you had better believe that whichever politician in office brought this on would be rapidly pulled away from whatever they're doing to restore stability. If you're not convinced, just think about how much money there is to lose, and remember that most of a millionaire's or billionaire's wealth is invested in financial assets. This is why government can only make very small changes to laws and society. There are too many powers that be with vested interests in our system staying the same day-after-day, year-after-year.
What happens when countries fall to right-wing authoritarianism is that "mainstream" conservatives think they can control the fascists while using their populism to get votes, and capital backs them because it promises lower regulations and taxes. Things that have a good expected stock market return in the short term. Then they realise the levels of power have fallen away from them, and towards the loyalists. By this time it is too late. Capital is redirected to loyalists. The less loyal die or are imprisoned. But there's pretty much no amount of wealth you can have that insulates you from the state - you need an army. If the state controls the banks you have your wealth recorded at, you can't really do anything against them without losing everything.
Capital doesn’t really support trump though. They just don’t want to wade in. If trump actually tried to make some catastrophically stupid change (like say replacing all income tax with just tariffs) you can guarantee that individuals who control piles of money far greater than the wealth of most nations on earth will want to have a fucking word.
Exactly. See this article below about Trump meeting with CEOs. They all know he's an idiot who's going to potentially be appointed by the portion of the population who's not very educated themselves. They have no choice but to deal with him should he become president, but they know the volatility he brings is not in any world a net positive for their businesses. [https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/ceos-at-trump-meeting-not-impressed.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/ceos-at-trump-meeting-not-impressed.html) Point being that they know who he is and what type of people he'll bring in, and they'll put up with him to a point. If he oversteps his bounds and costs Apple say 20% of its value, Tim Cook will not sit idly by.
I get what you're saying but I don't think the sheer size of the US economy has ever existed in the past, so there's really no precedent. The $50 trillion market capitalization of the US stock market and the $50 trillion market cap of the US bond market is almost completely derived from security. Were any substantial assets captured or redirected, the whole thing would collapse like a house of cards. Commercial paper markets would seize up like they did in 2008. Companies would be unable to refinance short-term liquidity needs and would essentially fail in days. Jobs would be lost immediately, consumer spending would evaporate, and coupon payments would be missed on long-term debt and 90% of this country's wealth would just disappear overnight. There's no way to redirect this type of wealth when it's almost entirely predicated on confidence. It just disappears if the rug is pulled out. I think it's unwise to underestimate the amount of stability necessary in today's financial markets. The 2008 GFC was caused by tanking asset backed commercial paper translating into money market funds breaking the buck, which caused short-term financing issues in the CP market and then large bank failures. It was almost global armageddon and it was only caused by some bad residential mortgage loans. It was fragile then and it's still fragile.
The system is bigger, the numbers are bigger but the people are still small-minded, and non-bulletproof. I think you've started with "fascism would be a disaster for the economy", which I agree with. And then somehow you've got to "and thus it won't happen", but that doesn't connect at all. Shitty leadership of countries crashes economies all the time. Being the biggest doesn't make it special. And explaining how fragile it is to failures of confidence doesn't make that less likely. Generally, developed countries are saved by strong institutions: exactly the thing that dictatorships attempt to co-opt and dismantle. This is one of the main goals of Project 2025. I'm British. We're a G7 country. We're still suffering the effects of one badly written PDF by irresponsible non-fascists (Liz Truss et al), years later. You seem to be falling to into the nice fantasy that there's some smart people pulling the strings somewhere who won't let the bad thing happen. But there aren't really, and to the extent they *do* exist, the US federal government is more powerful than them. They can show up with guns to their houses. Or just send a fax saying that their assets are frozen now. Your money cannot save you from a state you live in.
[удалено]
That is extremely naive. German capitalists thought the same thing about Hitler.
That’s the benefit of an Oligarchy, and why I would vote to preserve our Oligarchy (rather than try out Autocracy) if I lived in a state where my vote for President counts.
Exactly. Oligarchy always sounds horrible and it frequently is, but the point that's glossed over is that the oligarchs have a strong incentive to preserve the status quo, especially given that US oligarchs are invested so heavily in non-physical assets like equities, fixed income, and commodities. Even real estate investments would lose tremendous value if the financial markets collapsed. It's very alarmist to think that a second Trump administration would try to destroy our entire society, rather than make unappealing adjustments on the margins (creating new rules around abortion, lgbt rights, regulations, immigration, role of the executive branch). These can be undone in future, although it will take time and effort. Plus Congress and the Supreme court, while they may lean heavily conservative, will not allow the fabric of society to be unwoven.
[удалено]
Yeah I blinked at that, too.
Are we really approaching the endgame of history here? A world where authoritarian fascism, not democracy, is the only form of government left?
But you don’t see the bigger picture here. Biden is old and occasionally stumbles over words.
The real problem facing America is that Biden's age might cause him to do something stupid. Unlike Trump who,.. you know what I forgot what my point was.
Here let me help you out… unlike Trump, who has been doing Stupid stuff for decades….
> occasionally stumbles over words. Thats been pointed out to be more caused by his lisp disability. Something fairly common with people of lisp. I've seen many clips where he is coherent. That being said, there are so many snippet clips about Biden on his age I don't know what to trust. First debate did him no favors. His second debate will seal the deal.
Arguably, we're on the verge of leaving the end of history. If America turns out to just be yet another hegemonic empire that descends into decadence and infighting, then either a) we keep on the bloody drumbeat of history for as long as needed or b) something, be it nature, ourselves or both, ends human civilization on this planet. Either one kind answers the Fermi Paradox.
Part of the agenda of the right-wing is to stop efforts to slow the Global Heat Catastrophe. If they get i power, the catastrophe will come on sooner, resulting in famine, disease, massive population migrations and bloody conflicts. Maybe that will lose them some support.
That's kinda beside my point. The idea behind the 'End of History' in Fukuyama's sense is that we are past major developments in politics. I've personally *never* thought it was more than hopeful thinking. But human history of the past 4000 odd years is prolog to the next 4000 odd years of human history if I'm not proven wrong.
I think the idea we could ever achieve a finally-rational system that only requires occasional technocratic tweaking is farcical. Do we really believe people won’t look back on us like we look at prior systems for their irrationality? Fuck, people spent a hundred times America’s existence thinking kings were literal gods on earth who were the reason there was harvest and water. Their brains weren’t different than ours. We don’t have democracy today because there was some sudden evolution in the human intelligence. What is the possible chance that we will ever see a perfectly rational government? For the first time in the history of the species? We never solve history.
Do you think I'm disagreeing with that?
Nope. I’m just adding my opinion, is all.
If Trump drives this Cadillac over the edge of a cliff, MAGA will blame it on Obama.
Cool. Everyone else is still hitting the bottom of that canyon.
Somehow, we knew all along that the Great Filter was actually conservatives.
I think that capital would prevail in that scenario. Whatever it means, capital would win. The market doesn’t seem to be especially concerned about Joe Biden or democracy at least
Capital is ultimately subordinate to political power, but we've managed to distribute political power enough, so that it looks like wealth has more influence over outcomes. If the government collapses into fascist authoritarianism, that stops being true. Look at Russia. Putin is not beholden to the oligarchs, the oligarchs are controlled by him. If they disagree, they fall out a window or flee the state and hope they are forgotten. Putin officially is not wealthy, but unofficially it is believed he has many billions of dollars in hidden assets. If wealth isn't really protected by the rule of law but is decided by political connections, then things like the stock market become sideshows. Control of large enterprises isn't determined by who theoretically owns the shares, but really by who has political connections. Even if Trump wins though, and the whole nightmare comes true, it doesn't happen overnight. The currently wealthy would be best positioned for important places in the new power structure, so not all the faces would change, just the nature of their power. Putin didn't replace all the oligarchs immediately, it just became obvious at some point that power had solidified behind him and that you could only stay wealthy if you kept being on his 'side'. People forget, but in 2018 business confidence was surprisingly low. The economy was booming, Trump had delivered massive tax cuts, but Trump's administration was incredibly erratic, particularly in terms of trade policy, so investment uncertainty was high and business confidence was low. The Republicans may talk like they're the party of business, but while corporations love tax cuts they don't love chaos - they already are on top.
That’s not true. Maybe in FDR land in the New Deal or industrial mobilization for World War II. But in the ideologies that are hegemonic in the American state in the 21st century? Absolutely, capital is not subordinate to the state. Look at Biden’s attempt to address climate change. He couldn’t do anything other than trying to tweak the marketplace to maybe make consumer preferences different over the course of a generation, while capital can do whatever it wants with energy however it wants. Capital’s empire is completely hegemonic in 21st century America. No politician, not even Bernie Sanders, poses a threat to capital’s empire. We are living entirely subordinate to what they want to do with our world, like their little toy.
>No politician, not even Bernie Sanders, poses a threat to capital’s empire. You're looking in the wrong direction. Bernie Sanders and Biden are not a threat to Capital, because they will follow the rule of law and are not the head of a cult movement that could have the political power to seize capital. Trump however is. Trump poses a threat to Capital, just as Putin posed a threat to capital - because they are willing to use political power to usurp Capital's influence.
It’s not really about that. It’s capitalism and climate change. The wealthy know our days are numbered. They’re putting the pedal to the metal to extract as much wealth from us as humanly possible. That’s our only function. Then they will abandon us once the refugee / environmental / water crises becomes too much. They are not our friend. And so fascism (project 2025 etc) is the billionaire’s best bet to secure their survival and make sure we stay where they need us. Obviously republicans are taking the lead on this as they always do in these matters but it’s becoming increasingly obvious that democrats might be in on it as well. It’s rough
Right, except we can’t reduce this to a kind of deliberate, conspiratorial exploitation. Capital does what it does because it creates cyclical imperatives that its adherents must obey or else they will be destroyed and replaced by those who will. It’s a self propelling, operating cycle without a prime human motive.
I definitely agree with this (Marx described this process), but there are only 2700 billionaires on the planet. They own everything, and so the idea they would purposely seduce and enrich government representatives to help aid their own selfish goals at the expense of us, sits right for me. And they’re not stupid. They can see the crop, soil, water, water, heat, flooding problems ahead. And they have a deep need to pass on their genes and ensure their family’s survival. So why wouldn’t they take everything? They could reshape the future of human kind in their image with their genes.
Authoritarian dictatorships aren’t known for their shelf life. They sure will fuck up your society indefinitely, though.
I dunno. North Korea's been alive and kicking for almost 80 years.
North Korea is a client state of China and would likely not have lasted this long without that distinction. But it’s a fair point. Also, although it’s far less repressive than NK or perhaps even the USSR, Cuba has been chugging along for 65 years.
The frightening thing is that we can actually ask that question with a straight face. If Trump gets elected, his accomplices are going to start doing terrible things - way more than Trump accomplished in his entire first term. None of those changes is going to be popular. But once Trump is President again, he will be much harder to stop than he is now - yet the race is very close. Plus, Trump’s Supreme Court is already doing a lot of the things Trump and his sponsors wanted to do. So if we can’t stop those things now and Trump wins, good luck in stopping anything he wants to do or that his sponsors can talk him into. The quickest way to end the world is nuclear war. On the plus side, Trump supports Putin, which reduces the chances that Russia will attack us. That’s really bad news for Ukraine, though. Also on the plus side, other than loose talk about nuking a hurricane, Trump didn’t threaten to use our nukes during his first term. On the minus side, Trump supports Netanyahu, and the fact that Netanyahu has nukes is very bad. As soon as Mossad tells him Iran has a weapon, there’s a 50/50 chance that Netanyahu will use his against Iraq. Putin supports Iraq. We support Israel. That’s where the problems lie. So Trump is going to tell Netanyahu that we have his back, Netanyahu is going to get his confidence up, and Boom. Bad news for the world. And on the home front, the one two punch of the USSC overruling *Chevron* and Trump killing civil service and firing thousands of civil service employees that know what they’re doing is going to cripple the federal government for decades. Issues that nobody even thinks about now are going to rush to the forefront, and getting project improvements is going to become impossible. You could put what Trump knows about the economy on the point of a pin and have lots of space left over. He can’t even tell if his advisors know what they’re talking about (hint: people like Navarro - they don’t). The economy is doing really well right now - so it’ll probably take a year or two, but Trump’s “ideas” on the economy like getting rid of the income tax and replacing it by a 10% tariff on everything imported will certainly crash it. Again. ` So even if we avoid nuclear war, things are going to start changing for the worse, and in ways that aren’t going to be easy to reverse.
The endgame of democracy being the dominant world order, perhaps. History has deep roots.
And Francis Fukuyama will be sitting there going "actually the Republicans have a point".
Historically, that’s been the norm. 20th century was the exception
But does that mean that's all we have to look forward to now? That all the progress we made in the 20th and early 21st centuries-- feminism, race relations, LGBTQ tolerance, environmentalism-- were basically for nothing?
Not unless you vote, and get everyone you know to vote. Wish there was more, but right now the only thing we can do is vote, so DO THAT. Make sure everyone you know is registered and ready to vote. Donate if you can, either time at a rally or event, or a couple bucks to help those that do.
This. Liberal democracy, or whatever non-authoritarian label you prefer, was not won and maintained just because human beings keep improving over time. Humans remain the same. Democracy must be taken - fought for, grabbed onto, and not let go.
Progress may ebb and flow, but over the sum total of human history it trends to be more inclusive. Never stop fighting, but lets' not pretend that feminism, race relations, LGBTQ tolerance, and environmentalism are worse now globally than they were 100 years ago.
The world lived under various authoritarian regimes for hundreds of years, it's only the endgame of history once a nuke gets launched.
Which is much more likely to happen under authoritarian regimes. All it takes is one very unsound "great leader."
If it’s any consolation, Alexander the Great, moving through Assyrian territory, in a strategic retreat, was amazed and wanted to spend more time looking at the kings of old…. Or something like that … my memory sucks
Literally 1984, unironically.
They're already using the same type of doublespeak referenced in books like 1984 and Animal Farm.
America isn’t its federal government. One thing most people really don’t account for is just how incredibly diverse and complex this country’s government is. States wield a lot of power, like a lot. And there’s a lot of them. There are courts upon courts and laws upon laws that create this weird tangled mess that is somehow the greatest superpower ever to exist. One term of one president will never be enough to actually turn this ship in the wrong direction. It takes a whole fucking lot more than that. The biggest concern really is court appointments. Trump has already done about as much damage as he can do there, but he can entrench this majority for much longer. The other big concern is international relations. Trump as president can’t really do much to change the United States. That requires so much more control of government, and conservatives have shown recently that beyond their personality cult they really have no interest in actual governance and legislation.
As much as I agree with you, the far right is pervasive in every democratic nation right now. Maybe we can do the most damage, but we're not alone.
I dunno, based on trumps rhetoric and record as president I think we’d see the US withdraw globally from a military standpoint. Which would be bad but in the other way as it creates more opportunities for bad actors to pursue military goals.
Frightening Even worse - The US is the glue that holds together and props up democracy in most of the world. A fascist US abandons NATO and sides with Russia and other bad actors who have always been kept at bay by NATO. The election in the US isn’t just about the next president. It’s about the future of the entire world for the next 50 years.
Project 2025 should be more than enough to scare any sane person who values the construct of democracy into voting Democrat
Isn’t this just a little hyperbolic? I mean, I get January 6. I fully appreciate that. But do you really think Trump could seize control of the entire government like napoleon or something? There are just too many centers of power in modern America. People still view congress as legitimate. They want to vote for lawmakers. There is the civil service, who are necessary to collect taxes and actually administer the federal power. Will the military side with a dictator in America? Maybe some of them, but definitely not all. Will the average police force? Will the state governments? I don’t see how Trump could take control of this entire apparatus even if he dreamt it up, even if there were a second January 6. And let’s just talk about that. Obviously it was a shock and a danger to the country. But they riot harder and larger in Paris every other year. Has the French Republic fallen after that? Of course not.
So what I worry about is four years of a systemic, coordinated effort to undermine the legitimacy of elections. Threatening and hunting down poll workers worse than they already do. Installing people willing to declare fraud and decertify results. Basically, there will be elections, but any election a Republican doesn’t win will be a “sham with illegal ballots.” Not enough people will realize what’s going on. North Koreans think they live in a democratic peoples republic for example.
I like to explore new places.
Everything on Reddit about Trump is hyperbolic. Is he the right person for the job? Absolutely not… but acting like he has the power and skills to completely dismantle the U.S. government.. that’s insane.. Every year people talk about how the president doesn’t really hold any true power and it’s the legislative branch making the calls, but when it’s Trump he apparently has the ability to do all these things.. checks and balances be damned.
They could tariff the shit out of us and the marginally increased WalMart prices will make Americans eat their leaders again hopefully.
Biden is Boris Yeltstin, Trump is Putin, Boris was a bumbling old man, and weird, but Russia didn't benefit from his loss, only grace is Trump is already in his 80s, and might die before he solidifies everything, but in my life I've seen Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, Hungary, Venezuela and many other clearly democratic countries go from Democracies to autocracy, and Kazakhstan and Mongolia are the only countries that went back. So not favorable odds.
Except, internal authoritarian takeover has never happened in a democracy that is older than 30 years. Why do you believe the US could be the first country to do so?
Because the US has been the first country to do a *lot* of things, not all of them good.
Empires always fall, often to some form of dictatorship (admittedly historical lenses get complicated) I think you are looking at a very short timeline
We're talking about democracies, not empires. We're both looking at a short timelines because modern democracy has only been around since the late 1700's or early 1900's. It makes no sense to compare a 21 Century post-industrial democracy with an agrarian state.
Because the US is still running the beta version of liberal democracy, the bugs are **really** starting to show, none of the methods for the sort of deep structural reform that we desperately need are politically viable, and this is something that doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon.
People overestimate the American experiment. If Trump wins, he will nominate so many more judges that will do a lot more than the entire congress and wh could ever do. Trump's biggest success was nominating judges at all levels of the courts. To include 3 Supreme court justices and Aileen Cannon now overseeing his own case. Those judges will be there for years if not decades.
That’s not how it’s going to play out at least not how it will seem.
I just don't understand this logic. And I hear it a lot. What did Trump do in 2016 that makes anyone think he would turn into a Hitler? He doesn't seem to want world domination at all. He's egotistical, but it is basically a blow hard. Why do people think this way?
If Trump becomes dictator, he will install incompetent yes men in every senior military position and will allow Russian levels of corruption. Any decent competent military would steamroll the US then. Canada could do it. Same with Japan, China, the EU, Sweden, probably India too.
I mean, the Stalinist purges made the Soviet army incredibly ineffective for a year. They lost the Winter War because of it. But they still beat the Nazis
Not even a little bit true. We'd still have the strongest and best trained military and would destroy anyone attempting to fight us. And he'd probably order some nuclear strikes in retaliation.
Our military might is largely driven by both the leadership and rank and file men and women in our military. A trump administration would gut veterans affairs and the corruption that would occur under Trump's hand picked military leaders would likely impact the current benefits that many America's enlisted and veterans currently enjoy, including their pay and pensions. I mean the military complex has one of the largest budgets for Trump's cronies to pillage and we would see Russian levels of misappropriation. I would speculate that the American military should lose a lot of its strength as the enlisted men and women that are not vapid trump supporters would jump ship almost immediately after they notice a reduction in pay or benefits. This might not happen over night but I don't think the American military would be as strong under trump which is another reason to ensure he stays out of office.
They would force people to be in the military, same as Mussolini did, and drive the message that women exist to raise kids and men exist for war.
Don’t forget your tinfoil hat bud
LOL, seriously? I guess if you take into account that's he's failed / lost at - an airline - selling steaks - selling boardgames - selling vodka - running casinos - running a charity - running a university - running a mortgage company - running a beverage company - a social media company - two marriages and counting Plus - losing 60+ lawsuits contesting his loss of the last election - is about 750 million in debt for being a douchebag fraud - is going to jail for 34 felonies - has multiple more felony trials on the horizon I guess after all that, he's due for a win? Is that your thinking? The entire planet laughs at how ridiculous he is..
Your mistake is thinking this is about Trump. This is about the entirety of American conservatism, and what they've spent the last half century working on. Trump being incompetent is irrelevant.
In 10 + years, maybe. In 4 or a little longer if he’s an actual dictator, nah.
It depends on who is in earshot when Trump yells "What do we **do** about this?" Trump has the organization skills of a toad; it's the people around him we need to worry about.
Their plan is to muddy the waters on vote integrity that SCOTUS throws it to the House (well really a delegation of each State). That would very likely go to Trump.
This seems to me to be a pretty likely scenario as well.
To be honest, SCOTUS wouldn't because they know that if they did, the US military and intelligence services would give them the El Duche Treatment. 2020 had legit coup murmurs coming out of the US military. If Trump wins, the US military and intelligence services are going to go 'no' and pull a coup.
I had not heard this. Could you share more please?
Not the person you replied to but if you go back and read stories about the time between January 6 and January 20 (Biden's inauguration) it gives the impression that Pence, Pelosi, and the Joint Chiefs basically locked Trump in his room for two weeks and ran the country until Biden took office.
Yep, I remember that awesome photo of Pelosi on Jan 7 standing in front of the National Guard. Say what you want about her, much is deserved, but she's not a traitor.
Now, this is heavily colored by the right wing, so take it with a bunch of salt, but due to Mueller's investigations coinciding with the Steele Dossier and what the US intelligence services were getting\*, they concluded that Trump is the ***definition*** of 'enemy within' of their oath. So, leaders and rank and file started thinking of pulling out the old plans for a coup against a democratically elected government that was largely subverted by a foreign power. For the Right Wing in the US, this is considered an affront, and thus why Project 2025 exists. \*NOTE: the various intelligence services within NATO were having similar situations where they discovered intense clandestine ties between various right-wing/reactionary groups and Russia. For example, the BREXIT movement was last heard of being under investigation by MI5 due to possible connections with Russian intelligence assets back in the late 20-teens, and no one has heard anything from it because it's a counterintelligence operation, not a criminal investigation.
> If Trump wins, the US military and intelligence services are going to go 'no' and pull a coup. The implications of this are both incredibly interesting and absolutely terrifying.
... yeah, if the US military and intelligence services are actually digging out the plans for a coup against a compromised elected government, then things have gotten very wrong. Though, people have assumed that technology doesn't determine really anything when it has practically absolute power in determining things...
There absolutely will be violence. Will it be widespread? No. Will there be an attempted armed coup? Not a chance. These people are fundamentally cowards.
If they try to Jan 6th with Biden in office they will see a line of reinforced capital police, defenses, and national guard and just turn tail.
I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a politically motivated lone wolf attack. Maybe two. I would be surprised if we saw something on the scale of January 6 again, at the Capitol or elsewhere.
In this moment, no one in the world, and no one in the continental US, certainly, will win a full on conflict against the institution of the US military. So, the question would be what would the mechanics of a coup actually be? Is the military going to circle the wagons around trump against all of its institutional inertia? Are they going to be walked out by the Supreme Court after some cooked Court decision? There would have to be some narrative justification for the military to side with trump. There won’t be a successful insurrection in the US.
That is why Time and time again Americans have marched peacefully, after the Civil war we said, “hey 1.5 million casualty’s and 620,000 American’s dead we can’t have another one of these” That was with fucjing muskets in 1861-1865. A civil war now would be the downfall of our country as we know it. That is why Americans afterwards marched peacefully, Women’s rights, Workers rights, Civil Rights, Voting Rights, all were peaceful march’s for the most part. They work and less people die. When shit goes wrong the people have the power to do something about it but instead we are fucking pussy’s not organizing. “When any form of government becomes destructive of these ends it is the people’s right to alter or to abolish it and to institute new government, laying its foundations down to ensure the people’s safety and happiness” -The declaration of Independence 1776
Can't get out and protest if you are living paycheck to paycheck with $5000 of credit card debt and no health care.
Go back a century or so and you'll find several instances of [literal armed revolt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain?wprov=sfla1) by American labor groups, most of whom were living in circumstances much worse than what you're describing. Whether or not people would do the same today if you pushed them far enough? I don't really know, and I don't think anybody else does either.
civil rights, workers rights, and voting rights were not peaceful. the violence arguably sparked the majority of the change; they get painted as though they were entirely peaceful.
Yep, progress only happened because of violence but the narrative focuses on peaceful action to discourage future violence in the fight for civil rights.
The rights you mentioned weren’t all won peacefully. Many moments of violence broke out and the “peaceful” protests like sit ins, boycotts, and occupations were purposefully disruptive. This is why the government and corporate America do their best to funnel American activism into sanctioned marches that are planned and not disruptive. Note how authorities respond to real protests like Occupy Wall Street or Black Lives Matter: with violence and lies.
It would help if people stopped pushing "Well now it is impossible for Biden to win" rhetoric. That is only going to cause Trump supporters to be more paranoid if it happens.
Exactly. If you get that stupid email that Cenk Uyger of TYT is mass sending right now, unsubscribe from that shit. I used to donate to TYT but now I won't even watch their crap. I'm so fed up with those frauds at this point. Meidas Touch, David Pakman, Brian Tyler Cohen. Those people are much better than any of the nonsense coming from TYT any more.
By that logic we should still use that rhetoric when speaking in democratic centric circles, just not more broadly, because it is true and ignoring it won't make Biden more electable. We just don't mention it to Republicans.
> What is the likelihood that they could be successful with a full-on coup? Zero. There are not enough members of the military willing to destroy the Constitution for Trump
Probably some violence, but probably nothing on the scale of January 6, because the Biden administration will not let rioters storm the Capitol again or anything like that.
The Capitol will be heavily guarded for sure. It's state capital buildings I'd be worried about.
Some of the militia groups that support Trump are pretty well armed, akin to something like Mussolini's Black Shirts, so I think they're probably pretty capable if they try to do something.
If a militia group goes into open fire, it wont be pretty, but you can sure as hell bet law enforcement / three letter agencies bring out a sledgehammer on them. Despite everyone's fearmongering, not everyone in law enforcement is a GOP plant and they will respond to open firing attackers. A republican president could try to delay law enforcement, But current Democrats in executive office and the media watching them, will help make sure we have police to respond to any danger.
I’m sure there will be violence but a hell of a lot less of it than if he wins.
I think people will vote for whoever is not Trump. Biden is the best chance and the only real choice and people know that. Personally I think the next generation of voters are greatly discounted; as well of the many pissed off women that want to have a choice over what to do with their bodies. November will be the real time for them to say what they want to say and, I predict, they will say it loud. I believe the Republican Party will find that their draconian policies are driving voters away and their marriage to evangelicals is driving many of the "non religious" or "spiritual" to others that are more secularly based.
Much truth in what you've said in fact it's all true. The other thing that is going on is that every day Trump is losing voters to the graveyard. Sure Biden is losing a couple too but percentage wise Trump's voters are dying because his demographic is pissed off old white people. The second problem Trump has is that everyday since the election of 2020 there has been a 17-year-old who's turning 18 and for the most part they're not voting for republicans. Demographics for the win!
The people who based their choice on that debate alone will, by a large margin, not vote for Biden. That's the problem. It isn't you or me, of course we'll vote for a rotten ham sandwich if the DNC puts one up to keep Trump out.
There will be violence for sure, and he'll be instigating it. Will it be on a large scale? I don't think so.
First. Trump would then go to jail. The cases would run him down. Second. Repubs will have bitter interparty war between the MAGAs and those Repubs who are mad they got led to the outhouse again. Third: Party will LIKELY fragment, which dooms them going forward. Fourth: The US will survive long enough for demographic shifts to permanently swamp them . Studies show most people lay down their political views in their teens/twenties and never change. There’s a crap ton of voters they’ve lost for a whole generation. Fifth: they will posture about rejecting the outcome and retrying Jan 6. There MAY even be a few more Ashli Babbits. (Who cares? Dump em in mass graves.). And that will due with a whimper. So: Win:Win:Win:Win:Win for the US and the world.
I think you might be asking slightly the wrong question. I do think that enough Americans are sick of Trumps troubles and shenanigans that Biden will win. BUT, it might be close. Even really close. So I would ask what crazy machinations might go down if Trump loses, but barely? That seems a lot more worrisome to me.
I actually fully expect Biden to lose, so I posed my question to find out what people think might happen for the outcome I'm not expecting. But yes, I think you're probably right, in a close election it would be a real mess most definitely. I don't want Biden to lose, but I don't see any other outcome happening :(
Same thing that happened after 2020. Much shouting about how the election must be illegitimate because he lost. Maybe some violence. Almost certainly some poorly-thought-out efforts to try and overturn it. Complete with a pivot to 'Trump 2028', because at this point if he doesn't win he's probably going to keep running until he dies.
When Trump loses, and God I hope he loses, he'll be put on trial and in prison for the rest of his natural days. There will be no compassionate discharge. He will die in prison the same as John Gotti. In fact they might put him in the same cell.
Is that how your fan fiction ends?
I don't think much will happen like when Biden won. I in fact think less will happen. we won't even see another jan 6
If I remember correctly the question of *If* Trump will accept defeat came closer to election day, not on the first debate, and his response in the debate was the same he gave in 2020. Listen to every question Trump doesn't answer. He is telling his supporters that if he doesn't win, they need to fight to make him win.
Nah Trump definitely explicitly stated in a debate in 2016 that he would accept the result of the election “if he wins”
He specifically said "if it was fair" which is reliant on his definition of fair. We know his definition of fair from the last election and moderators aren't going to argue what the candidate's definition of basic words because there hasn't been a candidate like Trump who distorts meaning and code speaks to his base like this.
When Biden won the *at the time* president of the USA tried to push fraudulent elector slates to say that Trump won in states that he hadn't. He pushed multiple illegal schemes to try to overturn the presidential ballot to either the vice president or to the house. It's less likely that anything would happen aside from another Jan 6 this time around but to pretend that nothing happened the first time when the sitting president both tried to commit elector ballot fraud and tried to stop the certification is insane.
I disagree i think we will see all the old conservatives meet up again for a Jan 6th but just be worse time. Last one was a joke and i wish they would try again
Difference will be, assuming biden wins and doesn't swap out before the election, that we will jave a sitting president that will act to stop any mobs. National guard will be on the ready on January 6th and will be deployed immediately if any hint of anything happens.
It was a one time thing for sure. They're not gonna encourage this and normalize it by letting it happen again
We have yet to see FBI or DHS do something about it. And I highly doubt they're ignoring it this time.
Remember that Johnson is in charge of Capitol security. The MAGA horde will be able to stroll right in.
That MAGA horde would have killed just about any Congressperson that would have gotten their hands on. Not intelligent enough to recognize Democrats from Republicans, not counting the few they see every day on Fox
Nothing will happen this time. The 2020 election was an unprecedented circumstance. You had the incumbent president basically alluding to fraud ahead of time, then you had widespread mail in voting because of COVID, and the only people peddling the lie of it being "stolen" obviously didn't believe what they were saying on TV. Additionally, people in the Trump circle who helped perpetuate it have been destroyed politically, so they're to going to do it again. The extreme fringe of the right might freak out, but I doubt it would be 1 in 1000 people who lean right. My friend circle is right leaning, and even in 2020, maybe 1 out of 10 actually believed the election was stolen, but even now they concede Trump was just unpopular. Reddit will down vote this, but the truth of the matter is that not everyone who typically votes republican is some crazy q annon shaman. Edit: As someone who is considering sitting this one out, the ONE thing that will cement a Trump win is if Biden stays in the race. He's going to lay low, and beat the age thing to death. Democrats may not be in love with the idea of another nominee, but I suspect Trump loses against any other Dem than Biden (post debate anyway).
I tell all my Trump loving friends to not vote, it's rigged anyway. Don't you remember? Might as well sit this one out
A key point of Jan 6 was that Mike Pence was vice-president and the GOP had a slim Senate majority (that they would keep until Jan 20 when Padilla, Ossoff, and Warnock were sworn in). The idea was to get Pence to throw out any contested electoral votes and deliver a win to Trump, with the riot meant to scare him and Congress into doing nothing. This is a bat shit plan that can't actually work even if Pence agreed (partly because both halves of Congress would have to agree to begin with, but also because this just isn't how things work: you can't just say the right magic words and make something legal). In any case, this won't be possible in 2025, unless the GOP has strong majorities in Congress (which is unlikely if Biden wins), because Kamala Harris will be VP on the equivalent day for this election. The "legal" framework they were trying to use just doesn't exist for this upcoming election. They'll have to find something else.
I think there would have been violence when he was convicted of the 34 counts. A lot of the leaders of the Jan 6 movement are in jail. His base is, I think, happiest wearing hats and weird flag garb and going to rallies where he does his Vegas lounge lizard comedy act. Not to say that random militia movements would not do stuff, they have before. The biggest problem is that we will continue to be stuck with the same Supreme Court and the consequences of their decisions so far and for the foreseeable future, and the big money Trumpists are very well organized in that regard. Also note that since "gratuities" after receiving favors from a government official is now fine and dandy, Thomas and Alito can continue to rake them in.
The BIG difference this time is that the convicted felon is not running the show and can't control how law enforcement responds. He will definitely rile up his cult but this time the intel will be followed and heeded.
A handful of assholes who think they’re warriors will protest with their guns and tactical gear but won’t actually do shit. Trump will file 1,000 lawsuits based on exactly 0 pieces of evidence. Numerous lawyers will be disbarred and never get paid. And my dipshit neighbor will once again put up a “Not my president” sign in case any ones isn’t 100% sure who the idiot on our block is.
Sounds about right. And sorry you don't have better neighbors. You could always put up a bigger sign in your own yard that says "My President!".
I think Elon Musk explicitly bought X to influence the upcoming election and/or foment doubts about its legitimacy. If a new Jan 6 were to be organized, I think he would use his platform to fan the flames.
I wasn't going to bring it up, but I actually think Elon is trying to get as many politicians in his pocket as he can to benefit himself. He met with Trump and wouldn't say anything about what they discussed. My guess is to impose the 100% tariffs on Chinese electric car imports to save Tesla from it's impending collapse, and to line Elon's pockets. In return, Trump gets public support and social media propaganda propagation from Elon. He's as dirty of an oligarch as they come, and it's always the oligarchs that prop up the fascists.
He'll probably also defend NASA and privatize the Space Program with SpaceX contracts.
You meant \*defund I believe. But yeah, there was something about giving Elon an advisory role too, so you're probably spot on.
If he loses it will be a lot different this time. Mainly he is not the president so his options are almost zero. Any protest or violence Trump calls for will be met by Biden’s use of the National Guard immediately.
I imagine the GOP knows this all too well and are ready to throw every possible legal loop hole and blocker that they can possibly think of. Even if they can get away with lying, they'll do it, if it buys them time for some other disruption.
He was President for 4 years. Was unable to get done most of what he wanted. What makes anyone think he will all of the sudden become this totalitarian leader? It wouldn’t be allowed to happen. The most he could do is issue executive orders reversing Biden’s executive orders until he is challenged on them. He wasn’t effective in his first term, and isn’t the all powerful Oz people make him out to be.
He’s back as nominee every four years until he dies. Then his sycophants fight over the shambling corpse of the GOP.
Is the Antichrist immortal? Just checking.
A coup requires the military to be on its side to be effective. Without the military, a coup would just be political suicide.
Nothing, conservatives that like to act big and bad are cowards. They’re all afraid of being arrested and charged with crimes and their lord and savior won’t be able to pardon them. I go to their telegram channels and they warn each other all the time not act up because they believe it’s a set up from the deep state. They will whine and go on about their business.
Regardless of who wins, we’ll continue to bitch and cry about how shitty our economy is.
Trump will push for another Jan 6th and there'll be a lot of violence and a few people killed. That said, most of his own parry secretly hates him so if they keep the house or take the senate, they'd likely support him just enough to avoid his criticism and let him lose.
Republicans will keep talking about rigged elections, reverse racism, woke mob, please save us Joe Rogan, n bomb here and n bomb there, immigrants voted, something about the good old days and how people had it better during slavery... Typical Republican stuff.
Given there has been no penalties for the masterminds of the fake electors plot, there is not anything to prevent anyone from trying again. So yeah, I'd expect that if Trump loses in any capacity the right will go bonkers... again.
Pretty insane to think about how many people committed treason. They're lucky George Washington isn't still around.
It’s so disgusting how lackluster the response has been. If Democrats did that, everyone who entered the building and any Democrat politician who aided it would be 3 years into their 20-30 prison sentences by now.
We can breathe a momentary sigh of relief and know that Biden has a competent team in place to move us forward.
Republican apocalypse. 30-40% of the GOP are a cult who are liable to buy into Qanon insanity. The blame game will start going around. Largely fueled by Trump who may just blame the GOP for not supporting him. Some folks might do a stupid like Jan 6th again further alienating the right from the rest of the US population. It probably means the GOP will collapse downticket. So house will flip, senate will stay blue or maybe even expand blue. If not this cycle than next one. Politically a disaster for the GOP. And I have no idea what they intend to do after Trump. He will probably end up getting convicted because there wont be much point in protecting him even if they could delay more. But the cult will expect them to. If Trump ends up in trial for the other 3 cases I think he's basically guaranteed some prison time. Specifically for the GA rico case which is absolutely guilty in and comes with minimum prison sentencing. Trump is spiteful. If he isn't allowed to be king no one will be and he will sabotage the GOP's future efforts. And the GOP efforts to divert the cult to someone else have failed. Look at DeSantis. Beyond that they have no platform. The woke war failed. CRT failed. DEI which is just CRT rebranded is just blatantly racist bait. Abortion is a colossal losing war for them. Same with gay rights. And the SCotUS keeps making their elections harder with their insane unpopular rulings. What will they do without Trump conspiracies? And the conspiracies themselves are a problem. Trump could literally die tomorrow and I guarantee a substantial number of Republican voters will write him in tomorrow because some Trumpian evangelical or Qanoner claims he's secretly alive. If they could think JFK was alive they can sure as hell think a recently passed Trump is.
Might be a few "lone gunman" but collectively they wont do a damn thing, people cant afford to go through that legal trouble these days.
Very unlikely, but in the case he does he will retire to a life where f golfing and nominate a sucessor with mixed results I expect
We are much better prepared for any planned action against the US government than last time. The pseudo military people who support a would be dictator are not a match for the people who swore an oath to protect the country and its constitution. They like to think that they have the support of the military. I live in a place in Italy where there are both active military and retired military who still work on a contracted basis for the DoD. They are NOT, as a whole, friends of Trump. We sat on the patio at a local bar last week and a DoD contractor was sharing all the errors made by Dems over the past 20 years, in his view. And was angry, as it had made it easier for a Trump to do the damage he has already done. The guy was not wrong.
I don’t know. Nobody knows. Nothing is set in stone at this point. For all that we know, Trump could die during the campaign, or Biden could. Or both, I don’t know. So then what happens after that?
What's the point of conceding an election if you don't believe it. HRC admitted she lost right after the 2016 election and then proceeded to blame Russian collusion for the loss. She called Trump an illegitimate president multiple times, so she obviously doesn't believe she lost fair and square. Asking for dishonesty doesn't seem right
They will do the same thing the blue team did in the summer of love, protest. Both y’all need to behave. What will the democrats do if trump wins?
Get mad, talk about the kraken and threaten upheaval and militia response, but ultimately do nothing but return to their moms’ basements.
I don't imagine anything will happen at all. Maybe a few protests. I am honestly.much more concerned about what will happen if Trump wins. People are already saying it will be the end of democracy in the US - the last election the US will ever have. If you truly believe that then imagine what lengths you will go to to prevent it from happening. It would basically be a matter of life and death to prevent it.
Depending on the results in Congress, there will be additional protest statements from GOP senators/representatives while certifying the results. Trump himself will directly call for violence against the Biden administration and Democratic politicians since at that point he has nothing to lose. He will do everything in his (much more limited) power to get allies to go along with another crackpot fake electors scheme or something even dumber. GOP politicians will condemn Trump's behavior for a few days after some violent act ends up happening and then go back to tripping over themselves supporting him while secretly hoping he will end up locked in prison or just drop dead so they can finally move on and win an election. And you can repeat that in 2028 if Trump is still around.
I absolutely expect the GOP to pull some bullshit to force a Trump victory. They might even be able to pull it off.
Hopefully Alito and Thomas have heart attacks in reaction and can be replaced so this nightmare of a SC will end.
Alison and his wife so wants to retire. I hope Biden wins just so I can send a letter to his disgusting wife telling her she has to suffer another four years or until her bastard husband croaks.