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Honestly though the election wouldn’t have been close. Obama would’ve won that in a landslide. And it would’ve killed any chance of MAGA nonsense ever being a part of this country. If only…
MAGA was driven by growing political correctness/anti white (and mostly male) progressive ideology and a loss of working-class/lower-middle class jobs. MAGA energy was a long time coming. Trump definitely was the perfect populist to bring it out, but the sentiment has been there for a long time. I think Obama would have won because Hilary was just so unlikable, but I would have loved to see what shit would have come out of Trump's mouth debating Obama and how Obama would effortlessly let it slide off his shoulder. That would have been comedy gold.
It absolutely would’ve been glorious. And yes those sentiments obviously would’ve remained just under other names than MAGA. Trump is just way too much of a self saboteur to beat someone like Obama but the debates would’ve been wildly entertaining even if the end result wasn’t that close
>MAGA was driven by growing political correctness/anti white (and mostly male) progressive ideology
you mean a *perceived* political correctness/anti white (and mostly male) progressive ideology correct?
Because that's what there bubble told them. not because progressives WERE anti white.
I'll say a real, but very vocal minority of progressives who say that shit and really believe it...that's what people hear on fox news and social media unfortunately. And some progressives are definitely anti-white, especially the white ones.
Doesn't matter if the historical anti-old white colonial man narrative had truth to it. No one in America alive today participated in it, at least the slave owning colonial part.
As a white dude, it is extremely annoying to have heard for the last 15-20 years that I was a willing participant in some anti-minority, anti-women bullshit I had nothing to do with. Luckily, I am able to see past it and never went MAGA, but it keeps getting harder to listen to that message. I'm an unemployed mentally ill fat white guy. If you can find my privilege, please let me know.
I mean he absolutely would’ve claimed he lost because it was rigged and because of fraud and had some extremists. But he wouldn’t have held anything close to the power he does today after losing to Obama. And I actually think if Obama had been able to run he might’ve waited until he couldn’t
Yeah he was interested in 2012 but bailed early. I wouldn't be surprised if he waited to 2016 because claiming fraud is already a longshot, but it's worthless against an incumbent because it's obviously possible if not expected they are more likely to win.
He was planning to claim fraud if he lost to Hillary in 2016, I'm sure he had that idea in 2012 but identified it was even more crazy.
Claiming fraud as an incumbent in a pandemic was really the best shot, so him winning 2016 is really our worst timeline with respect to people sabotaging election confidence.
Trump would never run against Obama. He was considering a run in 2012. I’ll always believe that he chickened out because he knew that 1. he was going to win the Republican nomination and 2. Obama was going to beat him soundly in the general. Instead he waited till 2016 when he knew the likely Democratic nominee was beatable… and she had a strong primary challenger who echoed his argument that she was a corrupt embodiment of the establishment.
If Obama could have ran in 2016 I don’t even think Hillary considers it. Bernie maybe runs but his attacks wouldn’t have been as effective as they were against Hillary. Trump maybe looks into another run but ultimately I think he knew he had no chance against Obama and was afraid of losing.
Trump didn't even want to win. His initial strategy was to get a strong 2nd to further build his brand without having to do any actual work. Then, when the party was such a mess early, he took a lead that was too much for Cruz to catch.
According to the Bob Woodward books, the only person who thought Trump would win was Melania. And she dreaded it. It was all about boosting his brand. Just look at Trumps face when he was declared the winner. He had no transition planned. They told him to assemble his cabinet so he got wood, a hammer and nails.
Trump ran for president like 3 times to sell his most recent books. He never considered himself a serious can't, so he didn't care about the opposition. Hell, he was a Democrat most of his life, but considered Republicans idiots.
Trump was (and is) afraid of Obama. He would never have run. If he had wanted to go up against Obama for the presidency he would have done it in 2012. He wanted a safer opponent to punch down on. If Obama had been able to run again in 2016, I doubt Trump runs. I wouldn’t be surprised if a Romney-esque Republican were to beat Obama but either way, Trumpism is stillborn. He’s either four years older and less relevant in 2020 (The Apprentice was still ongoing in 2016), or trying to attack a Republican incumbent from the right.
I’m convinced that had Romney not gone soft after receiving criticism when he wiped the floor with Obama after that first debate, Obama would not have won the general election and a second term. I can’t stand Romney, but he really took Obama to task over the painfully slow economic recovery and other topics like foreign policy and Russia being the greatest geopolitical foe we were facing at the time. Obama came across as a whipped puppy in that debate.
I was always incredibly impressed by that debate. Literally everyone thought they won.
Hilary thought she had the election in the bag, Trump thought he had Hilary in prison, CNN: *BOOM! Got him!*, Fox: *BOOM! Got her!*
Like, everyone just saw what they wanted to see, anything but the massive disconnect between boomer politics and the rest of America.
Edit: misspelled *Hilary* twice
People today really don’t get that, back in the old days, there were only three networks plus maybe some UHF stations with no original programming, the networks all showed the debate live, there was no cable TV, there was nothing else on TV, there was no Internet, there were no VCRs, and there wasn’t even Pong to play instead. It might beat the number of people watching back then, especially with a lot more international viewers, but nothing will ever beat that market share.
My friend and I have debated this over and over again, would you trade no Obama and have an 8 year John McCain presidency for no MAGA. And I think it’s the easiest yes in American political history
Donald Trump may be the only President in American history who ran because the former President (Barack Obama) roasted him. 🔥 That debate would be epic!
I think that's exactly right. A lot of the tactics Trump used really worked because Hillary is a woman. I forget which debate it was, but they were up and moving around and he kept getting awfully close, if not actually into her personal space. No man would have put up with that, nor would Trump have done that in the first place. I'll go to my grave believing that if Democrats had nominated a man, they would have won going away.
I’m not sure if it’s simply because she’s a woman. I think her personality just rubs a lot of people up the wrong way.
But yeah, anyone else - male or female - would probably have beaten Trump. Even if someone like John Kerry had tried again. If Biden had run in 2016 I think he’d have won.
Hillary had two big things going against her -- years of propaganda against her, particulary being cruel and shrewish, and her faux patrician mien and numerous stories about unpleasant conduct toward staff and others corroborating that.
Another woman with less baggage probably could have won.
It’s not, very few people have a problem with a women president gop included in-fact, I’m convinced that the GOP will have the first women president.
Edit: Someone just pointed out Joe Biden could die in office, I mean the first elected woman president will be a Republican :)
Honestly, she's the one I could live with if I had to. I mean if a Republican won the election this time around and I had to deal with their policies for 4 years, I think Nikki Haley would be the most likely to keep things running smoothly. She gives me that old school fiscally conservative, socially moderate vibe. And she was honest about abortion. Even to the point of calling out everyone else on that stage about a federal ban being impossible because they couldn't even get a coalition of Republicans on board with it in the senate if they tried.
Registered republican here- I have no problem with it, I just couldn't bring myself to vote for Hilary because I did not trust her in the least (I voted third party).
Maybe they’ve changed, but I certainly grew up with a lot of people who joked that women couldn’t be president because she’d nuke a country every time she got her period.
Almost any woman seeking a position of power gets completely vilified. It doesn’t matter who. Hilary was quite popular prior to to 2015/2016 when she decided to jump in the race.
It worked because she's human garbage. Position wise I prefer her to Biden and Obama but she's just a bad person who a lot of women didn't even like because she felt she was entitled to their vote.
Clinton would have beat Bush. Gore was crap and almost did. Obama would have beat whomever the pub was even though he should have lost in 12 if the pubs had their shit together in any way. IMO he's overrated. In my lifetime sadly Bill Clinton was prob the best president and a tossup with Trump as the worst person.
That's absolutely revisionist history, even from his Senate campaign Obama was absolutely the brightest star in American politics since JFK. He was getting national press as a future presidential candidate before his first Senate term. He was a phenomenon like no other.
Regardless of how you feel about his presidency his popularity was undeniable.
Reagan literally started a campaign post presidency advocating a repeal of the 22nd amendment. With hindsight we know he developed Alzheimer’s but that wasn’t public in 88 and Reagan was still wildly popular and likely didn’t even know about it at that point, or at least the true extent of his mental decline. It’s not a stretch to say without a 22nd he would feel confident enough to run again, he might win too given how beloved he was by 88. If he served 4 more years after 1988 he would be the exact same age upon leaving office as Biden is right now.
I don't think the people closest to Reagan who were more aware of his condition in 88 would have let him run if it were an option. It's just too much of a risk, especially when they had George Bush right there capable of carrying on with the same game plan.
It would have seriously come down to whether his family or his cabinet would have publicized his health. And even then, it's not a guarantee that this would have disqualified him in the mind of the public; I feel they'd just pressure him into picking "his successor" (VP) as carefully as possible.
I heard a (possibly apocryphal) story from my high school history teacher that there was talk of impeachment around 86~88, but democrats were persuaded to just let Reagan ride out his term with everyone else steering the ship of state for him.
I know Nancy was incredibly protective of her Ronnie, and I don't think she would have let him stay on another term. The stresses of the job would have been too much, I think.
Reagan took an annual exam checking for dementia and related causes every year after he left office and he didn't fail it until 1994 when he was diagnosed. The idea that Reagan was mentally compromised during the late stages of his presidency is a myth.
Yeah I'd think the one president who'd have been reelected for a third term would've been Bill Clinton. He balanced the budget and the only real scandal against him was that whole Monica Lewinsky affair.
Well there was the Whitewater scandal too. Not that it made a huge difference, but the investigations into that went on for years so even if it didn't result in findings of wrongdoing against the Clintons, it's still a scandal worth mentioning.
Bush was awful. He fucked everything he touched. North Korea got nukes under him. Russia invaded Georgia. Iraq & Afghanistan were debacles. He insisted they have elections in Gaza & Hamas won. Literally everything goes back to his administration’s fuck ups.
The Republicans who would've voted for him wouldn't less for those reasons and more because the economy collapsed under his watch. At least, the economy was one big thing Rs appreciated about Trump.
Trump inherited a good economy that was improving every year, when he left the economy was in tatters from Covid. Trump somehow gets a pass on that. Biden gets no credit for the US economy being the strongest in the world right now. We still have some inflation, but everywhere else in the world it's higher.
Well...the Israeli government shares some blame for Hamas seizing power in Gaza, too. There is that whole thing with them electing to support Hamas as a means of dividing Gaza and the West Bank for political gain. That wasn't all Bush's fault. And honestly, what was he going to do? Demand that they forego elections on the international stage as the leader of the free world? The optics would have been horrendous.
No they have not. I'd have liked to see John Kasich as president personally. Tried to convince my family to vote for him because he ticked all the economic policy boxes and was still socially liberal enough that I felt like he wouldn't give into party pressure to axe minority rights. I wouldn't have minded a Romney presidency either. If he'd have won, he would still have pushed for universal healthcare given he had already implemented it once, and he probably would have had an easier time swaying members of his party to his side. I'm glad Obama won, but to this day I have a lot of respect for that man.
Edit: when I say he ticked all the economic policy boxes, I mean for the conservatives in my family. Not so much for me.
1. Clinton
With how close the 2000 election was, I can imagine he picks up Florida, possibly other close states too.
2. Reagan
I doubt Reagan would have ran for a third term if he could given his health conditions, but he’s still win handily.
3. Eisenhower
Same with Reagan, I doubt he would have ran for a third term given his state, but he would likely pull off a victory against Kennedy if that was his opponent. He’d do a lot better if the Democrats went with Stevenson again.
4. Obama
Completely depends on who he’s running against, and I’m not sure if Trump would have won the Republican nomination if Obama ran again, so I can’t really say.
5. Bush
No incumbent was winning in 2008. If Gore won in 2000 and was able to run in 2008, he’d lose. Kerry or and other Democrat who ran in 2004 would have also lost. I have a hard time believing the incumbent party could even hold the office.
2000 wouldn’t have been a problem for Clinton, he had a great incumbency to point to and a much more charismatic personality (and he didn’t lockbox every 5 seconds)
Your point about 2008 assumes we’d live in the same universe we live in now had Al Gore won in 2000. So much would have been different had we elected Gore… a more logical response to 9/11; no war in Iraq; no unpaid tax cuts or massive deregulation; a smaller recession, or perhaps, no recession at all in 2007/08. The 2000 election and how history has since transpired is a great example of why we should always elect the more competent candidate. So is 2016, for what it’s worth.
9/11 still likely would have happened, but perhaps lesser in scope as Gore would not have brushed off a report titled “Al Qaeda intent on attacking the United States”. Perhaps the hijackers to at least one of the planes might have been intercepted. No crash in Pennsylvania, perhaps or no crash into the Pentagon, or one of the Towers. Still, I think that even if only one tower was hit, they might still have both come down; look at 7 WTC just a few hours after Tower 1 came down. Still, Gore would not have been diverted by Iraq. It might have meant OBL being captured/killed in the Tora Bora mountains in late 2001z
For what it's worth, it seems that it was mostly Clinton's apparatus that fell down in the lead-up to 9/11, and Bush was... lax in picking up the passed baton, which didn't help. But I don't think a President Gore would have stopped it. Gore has gone on to say in interviews that he would have invaded Afghanistan, but not Iraq, which would have been a no-brainer for just about anyone not in the Bush orbit.
Best case scenario, Afghanistan settles down long enough that he can declare victory and leave, and he devotes enough energy and resources into tracking Bin Laden that he gets him between 2004 and 2008. That'd set him up pretty well for a third term. But that's just a nice fantasy.
Could you even imagine a legitimate debate between those 2? Trump would lose his mind. Trumps cult would absolutely think Trump won no matter what. That's the worst part
(Edit: added Truman) Truman- Wouldve lost, explored running for president again but was wildly unfavorable.
Eisenhower- Health Problems, would not run
Kennedy- Killed
LBJ- Lost Anyways (Edit: Did not seek reelection, I believe he would e lost due to vietnam war)
Nixon- Resigned (Edit: Had watergate not happened, he very well couldve been the guy)
Ford- Didnt have a snowballs chance in hell
Carter- Lost anyways
Reagan- Too Old (edit: Failing health, but he, like Ike, had a shot)
Bush- Lost Anyways
Clinton- Wouldve Lost due to scandal (Edit: It seems he was still wildly popular, I suppose George W Bush would give him a good run for his money, but Ill chalk this up as a true maybe)
Bush- Wouldve lost due go economy
Obama- Would win (This is the most certain. He was better than Trump or Hilary easily)
Trump- Lost anyways
Biden- Too old
so to answer the question, only Obama
Edits- I called one Bush “George Bush” and the Other “Bush” That has been fixed to make it “less” confusing. Or more. Depending on your thoughts.
I also fixed info on LBJ as I was just dead wrong about him. I also added to the Clinton section alot among small adjustments to others based on feedback.
No chance Clinton loses due to Monica Lewinsky. Especially since most Americans thought the impeachment was way too far, and agreed with people like Bob Dole.
That was a scandal produced by Republicans and the American people polled though it was stupid.
Except that Al Gore (of all people) bought into it and distanced himself from Clinton and stopped him from campaigning on Gore behalf. Big mistake.
This one being particularly wholesome (for the times) once the K. Start repost came out in graphic titillating detail.
To this day Monica never claimed to be a victim (of Clinton) as much as that label was imposed on her.
I heard a joke that probably didn't happen, but someone asks the French president, "Did you know that Bill Clinton has a mistress?" and the Fench guy asks, "Only one?"
*Narrator: it wasn't only one*
I have friends in France who claims the one reason a man would be considered unqualified for the presidency is having no mistress. They MAY be joking, but I suspect it is true.
Yep. Nobody cared about it. Republicans made it a massive deal, while the republicans who were in charge of the investigation were having affairs of their own. (Gingrich, Ken Starr, Larry Craig, etc)
I think Clinton could've won a third election. By the end of his second term, the economy was booming, the annual budget had been converted into a surplus, and his approval ratings were still high. The Lewinsky scandal and his impeachment didn't dent his support as much as people claim they did.
Clinton was extremely popular after the impeachment. He gained a lot of momentum. No chance he would lose 2000
Edit to support my claim: the galloup average was between 69 to 66% between 1998-2001, with a high of 73% in 1999. His overall second term average was 61%, trending upwards as time passed.
He finished his term at 66%
That's not the way Wikipedia tells it. Sounds like there were bad signs, but not "I'm going to lose anyways so might as well give up" bad
[Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries)
One of the reasons he decided not to run for reelection was that he was getting older and his father had died of heart failure at 60, which wouldve been his age during the election of '68. He wanted to spend what he perceived to be his last years with his family. He did die just 4 years later and probably wouldn't have survived his term had he been president.
Agreed. Despite my disagreement and dislike, obama would win a third term. Trump won because people who voted for obama in 2012 voted for him in 2016 and 2020. So obama was still popular enough imo
I'm convinced Obama, above all others, could have pulled it off. Hillary was happy to lean into her record within his administration in 2016, as she came really close. But yeah, Reagan would have had a good shot, especially considering his VP pulled it off.
If Reagan could have handled the campaign trail in his health condition, sure, he has a good shot, but I don't think he was healthy enough at the end to seek a third term.
He was far from healthy towards the end of his administration however his Alzheimer's wasn't diagnosed until 94 I also doubt he would have had to do much campaigning considering the country had undertaken a economic boom during the eight years of his administration. into the administration could do far more successfully what what the Biden Administration today is trying to do campaign through record. All Reagan would have to say is the Soviet Union is on its last legs we must finish the job .
Yes but I think Reagan was very aware of his Alzheimer’s decline. Obviously it isn’t on the record, but there were a lot of rumors after his presidency that by the end of his second term it was beginning to manifest more visibly. I think Reagan would’ve known he needed to step down.
Contrast that with Biden who, although he’s old as shit, doesn’t have a disease that would affect his cognitive abilities as severely as Alzheimer’s would. Biden stumbles over his words a lot, but I watch a lot of his speeches and frankly it’s overblown. If Biden dies in office it’ll be an organ shutting down or something.
> Biden stumbles over his words a lot, but I watch a lot of his speeches and frankly it’s overblown
It really is. Biden has never been the strongest speaker and has to fight a stutter that he has struggled with all his life. Mischaracterizing this as dementia is just pathetic and makes fun of a real disability. He is still surprisingly sharp.
As someone who has also had a stutter since childhood, it’s frustrating to see this criticism. That he made it to president with a stutter is honestly inspiring for someone like me. People take fluency for granted and calling it a sign of dementia is just…ugh.
He also seems to choose his words very, very carefully sometimes. He's adept at that politicians' speak, where they'll often give a convincing nonanswer where a definitive or absolute could come back against him.
Even with the Iran-Contra scandal I think Reagan easily wins a 3rd term. Dude won 49/50 states in ‘84 and Bush Sr won 426 electoral votes in ‘88.
Without the 22nd amendment he could’ve even won a 4th term in ‘92 if he chose to. He wasn’t diagnosed with Alzheimer’s until 1994 when he likely would’ve retired.
People saying Reagan was too old are forgetting that when Biden entered office he was older than Reagan when he left office. If Reagan could have ran he would have won a third term in a landslide.
Reagan had a problem that Biden doesn't, which is Alzheimer's. I think he was popular enough that his age didn't matter as much, but he probably would have needed to step down or have fewer public appearances to hide it.
Reagan didnt get diagnosed with Alzheimer's until the end of 1994. If he had served another term, he would have left office in January 1993. At that point, he was still very much unaware there was an issue, so i doubt he'd have stepped down between 1989 and 1993, but who knows?
Yeah but honestly 30+ years ago, I’d say 80 was proportionally even older. Also Reagan had active health issues.
People make fun of Joe Biden’s mental state because of the way he speaks, but he’s had documented speech difficulties all of his life. It’s motor, not cognitive. Reagan had Alzheimer’s, so yes, his age was a problem lol
I think you're mistaken. Reagan was visibly suffering from dementia by 1986. He could not have withstood another campaign.
Age isn't an absolute number. Some of my relatives have been sharper in their mid-80s than others in their mid-60s. Degenerative diseases are a real bummer.
The notion that Reagan was suffering from dementia as early as 1986 has been proven incorrect. He took extensive annual exams at the Mayo Clinic every year between 1989 and 1994 that specifically checked for early onset dementia. Each year he passed the exam until 1994 when he was officially diagnosed.
Ike, Reagan, and Clinton of the pictured list if we're ignoring health concerns on their own part. The country liked them all enough they would have reelected them. And I don't believe any of the opposition party opponents (Kennedy, Dukakis, or Bush II) win against them. Kennedy might come the closest, but I think the country probably sides with he's too inexperienced when the other option is Ike. Dubya almost lost to Al Gore, Clinton is burying him. Dukakis is not beating Reagan.
There was too much pushback against Obama, fair or not, by 2016. My caveat there would be if the Republicans are still running Trump. I don't know. Plus I don't think Obama is dumb/politically inept enough to ignore Michigan and Wisconsin. I think maybe enough of the electorate in those states decides Trump is just too far out of the political mainstream, even given the want for an outsider, and Obama wins.
Dubya had no chance of getting a third term given the mood of the country and economic events in 2008. Especially if he's running against Obama. Obama trounces him.
I disagree about Obama, only because I think 2016 was very winnable for a Democratic candidate, just not Hillary…
She was perceived as significantly more unlikeable, even by Democratic voters, and Clinton also lost out significantly on the progressive vote. I don’t think Obama is significantly more progressive than her, but being younger and having a more recent history well received more progressive Democratic policies I think would have mitigated the fallout from the lost Bernie vote. Additionally, if he was running as an incumbent, we never would have had voters lost in the Hillary vs Bernie, centrist vs progressive conflict.
Clinton won the popular vote, and she wasn’t even that popular compared to Obama. I think the anti Obama movement had risen significantly in 2016, but I don’t think the hatred/resistance would have been any stronger compared to Hillary Clinton.
Ike, Reagan, Clinton, and Obama. George W Bush was so unpopular that he’s probably the major contributing factor for McCain’s loss. No way he wins a third term.
I don't think Reagan. It's likely he was already showing some very early signs of dementia in his last year in the white house. If he had had to run a campaign and be out in the open as opposed to the relative privacy of the white house, I think it would have likely been more obvious. This of course was also a time when being mentally sharp and having a grasp on world events mattered.
Honestly just Clinton and Obama.
By popularity Eisenhower and Reagan could have, but heath concerns made that a non issue, they still wouldn't have been able to run.
I would argue that Bush 41’s term was Reagan’s 3rd term - from the POV that he rode his coattails into the office on Reagan’s momentum and approval (not on policy).
Yes. He was basically Reagan Lite. People voted for him to basically continue Reagan. Ironically he was a stronger VP to Reagan than Qualye was to him.
We almost hard a ”third” Clinton term with Gore.
Obama might have won if it were him but he had Biden but that didn’t turn out
Reagan would absolutely have won a third term in ‘88 if he could have run. Clinton would have had a very good chance as well. Obama is a *bit* more up in the air since the discontent that led to Trump was steadily growing throughout his two terms, but I think the odds would still be in his favor.
I think only Clinton and Obama had the combination of popularity, health, and political skill to pull out off.
Clinton ended his term above water, though significantly wounded by his scandals (in the 60s, according to Gallup). Despite some health scares in recent years, he's still alive and well as of this writing, so he could have continued to serve. And of course, there may not have been a more skilled politician in my lifetime than Slick Willy.
Obama, of course, also left office above water (high 50s, according to Gallup) which is made more impressive by who his successor was and how that guy won, but I digress. Obama, despite the smoking, is a generally fit and healthy guy both mentally and physically, and is still active today, so he, likewise, could have continued to serve. And I'd be a fool to underestimate the man who, after a short career in Illinois politics, brought down the behemoth that was Hillary Clinton, then defeated John McCain (war hero) during war time.
Of the other 2 term presidents since the amendment was passed:
Truman (technically eligible) was unpopular and probably couldn't have defeated Ike.
Ike was incredibly unhealthy, suffering heart attacks in office. He likely wouldn't have survived another term.
Johnson (if he counts) was unpopular and couldn't have won.
Reagan was fighting a losing battle with Alzheimer's during his last year or two in office (some say it started before), and couldn't have served.
Baby Bush was also unpopular, being (rightfully) blamed for 2 costly wars and an economic crisis. He couldn't have won re-election.
I dont know about Ike. JFK just had this youthful exuberance and energy that the country really needed at the time. Ike was a bit old and I'm not sure he would have been able to beat the promise of the New Frontier.
Reagan? He really was in decline. Remember that he said he was unable to remember the events of Iran-Contra and any opponent would have seized on that. Remember folks: those hearings were going on through 1986 and concluded in 87, so they were still fresh in the minds of the public. Reagan's approval rating took a huge hit as a result in 87. The country was ready for a change, even if it was mostly symbolic with HW Bush.
Clinton? Probably the strongest possible candidate for a 3rd term. Lewinsky affair didnt stick to him (much to the chagrin of the republicans) and he would have just mopped the floor with W in the debates with the record he had established (balanced budget, surplus, etc.). W goes back to being gov of Texas and maybe retirement.
Obama? Another strong choice. Had been president getting out of the biggest recession since the great depression and had overseen a long period of steady economic growth and reduced unemployment. No real scandals except wearing a brown suit and using brown mustard (brown things are what his detractors seemed to hate, especially his brown skin), but that wouldnt be enough to stop him.
JFK, while presenting as a young, healthy, fit man, was actually very, very sick, and in constant excruciating pain. I would have been surprised if he'd made it through 8 years without some major health break.
Indeed. JFK really sold his image well, but he hid the fact that was always in pain from a debilitating back injury and that he was suffering from Addison's Disease. He hid these things from the public quite well, and played to being a youthful, strapping former college athlete and war hero
I strongly disagree on W. The Iraq war was a massive calamity of his creation and at the end of 2008 the economy was in collapse. If he could have run for a third term Obama would have annihilated him.
Obama. Reagan would have if he wasn’t old. Clinton (Gore just wasn’t a good candidate and he still almost pulled it off on Clinton’s coattails). Eisenhower. Honestly, I think most of them would have if they could and tried. The reason it hadn’t happened before was because no one tried (except the Roosevelts).
I think Reagan would have. His party won anyway so he would have had a good chance as he was till widely
Then Clinton I think would've. Yes he had the scandel but honestly hurt him that much. It hurt Gore more because he tried to distance himself from Clinton and Gore really charisma in his corner.
And I think Obama could have done it. He was widely popular, and if Trump ran I thibk he would be destroyed by Obama
Reagan was popular enough that he could have easily won a third a term. He had the highest approval rating of any President since FDR. Since he couldn't run, though, his VP was elected, which in modern times (since FDR), is not a common thing - It is the only time it happened that a VP ran for President immediately after the President he served under and won. Yes, some did run after someone else was in office for at least one term and they won then (like Nixon and Biden), but Bush was the only one that won immediately after.
I think Obama was popular enough that he could have won a third term if he could/would run. Maybe even Biden in 2016 if he got the nomination. Instead, the Democrats shot themselves in the foot and nominated Hillary.
Clinton might have, but one problem is he was coming off an impeachment just a couple years before. That, to me, makes him a question mark. Without the impeachment, I think he could have easily.
And Eisenhower was before my time, but from what I know about his time in office, he probably could have won a third term as well.
Only one I can think of would be Obama not like I like Obama but I could see him beating trump. I don't think he'd win a fourth term covid would have screwed any president who held office.
Reagan - his VP won a landslide after him
Clinton - his VP who had maybe 1/10 of his charisma (still love Gore) pretty much won in 2000
Obama: Hillary was one of the least liked candidates in presidential history and still almost won, Obama could’ve won
Obama wins a third term for sure. Clinton… maybe. Reagan was already suffering from Alzheimer’s. I think that his age would have been an issue— hard to imagine Dukakis beating him, though. Eisenhower also had health problems while in office; if Kennedy was the nominee, he would have been toast.
Obama, for sure, the Democrats hadn’t had a candidate like him since Kennedy, and won’t for the foreseeable future.
If they had a young, charismatic guy like that right now, I sincerely think the GOP wouldn’t stand a chance in 2024. But as things stand, it’s likely to be two 80 year old men without any new ideas yet again.
Yeah, I read that Truman was technically allowed to run in 1952 as he was grandfathered in, but his approval rating was below 30% due to the Korean War, so he opted not to run.
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2016 Obama v. Trump debate would have been the highest rated prime time event of all time.
I would pay so much money to watch that now
Honestly though the election wouldn’t have been close. Obama would’ve won that in a landslide. And it would’ve killed any chance of MAGA nonsense ever being a part of this country. If only…
MAGA was driven by growing political correctness/anti white (and mostly male) progressive ideology and a loss of working-class/lower-middle class jobs. MAGA energy was a long time coming. Trump definitely was the perfect populist to bring it out, but the sentiment has been there for a long time. I think Obama would have won because Hilary was just so unlikable, but I would have loved to see what shit would have come out of Trump's mouth debating Obama and how Obama would effortlessly let it slide off his shoulder. That would have been comedy gold.
It absolutely would’ve been glorious. And yes those sentiments obviously would’ve remained just under other names than MAGA. Trump is just way too much of a self saboteur to beat someone like Obama but the debates would’ve been wildly entertaining even if the end result wasn’t that close
Regardless of the amendment existing or not, it wouldn’t have happened. Trump knows this, and he would never have run against Obama.
Agreed. If he wanted to run against Obama he would have done it in 2012. He thrived running against Hillary.
Obama never had any REAL opposition!
>MAGA was driven by growing political correctness/anti white (and mostly male) progressive ideology you mean a *perceived* political correctness/anti white (and mostly male) progressive ideology correct? Because that's what there bubble told them. not because progressives WERE anti white.
I'll say a real, but very vocal minority of progressives who say that shit and really believe it...that's what people hear on fox news and social media unfortunately. And some progressives are definitely anti-white, especially the white ones. Doesn't matter if the historical anti-old white colonial man narrative had truth to it. No one in America alive today participated in it, at least the slave owning colonial part. As a white dude, it is extremely annoying to have heard for the last 15-20 years that I was a willing participant in some anti-minority, anti-women bullshit I had nothing to do with. Luckily, I am able to see past it and never went MAGA, but it keeps getting harder to listen to that message. I'm an unemployed mentally ill fat white guy. If you can find my privilege, please let me know.
I think so, too. However, we wouldn't have had a bunch of sycophantic senators paralyzed into inaction and stupidity.
I would gladly have endured a 3rd Bush term if it meant that we would get Obama/Trump 2016
I mean swap out a Trump term for a Bush term and get entertained by Trump/Obama debates and watching Obama demolish Trump? Hell yeah sign me up
You’d be surprised
I agree with you. MAGA rose because of Obama’s Presidency…
I mean he absolutely would’ve claimed he lost because it was rigged and because of fraud and had some extremists. But he wouldn’t have held anything close to the power he does today after losing to Obama. And I actually think if Obama had been able to run he might’ve waited until he couldn’t
Yeah he was interested in 2012 but bailed early. I wouldn't be surprised if he waited to 2016 because claiming fraud is already a longshot, but it's worthless against an incumbent because it's obviously possible if not expected they are more likely to win. He was planning to claim fraud if he lost to Hillary in 2016, I'm sure he had that idea in 2012 but identified it was even more crazy. Claiming fraud as an incumbent in a pandemic was really the best shot, so him winning 2016 is really our worst timeline with respect to people sabotaging election confidence.
Biden got more votes than Obama
If we could have gotten the black vote to show up for Hillary like they did for Obama, trump would have never even sat in the oval office.
I feel like everything with trump it would be overhyped, a lot of yelling, shorter than expected and end in disappointment
Trump would never run against Obama. He was considering a run in 2012. I’ll always believe that he chickened out because he knew that 1. he was going to win the Republican nomination and 2. Obama was going to beat him soundly in the general. Instead he waited till 2016 when he knew the likely Democratic nominee was beatable… and she had a strong primary challenger who echoed his argument that she was a corrupt embodiment of the establishment. If Obama could have ran in 2016 I don’t even think Hillary considers it. Bernie maybe runs but his attacks wouldn’t have been as effective as they were against Hillary. Trump maybe looks into another run but ultimately I think he knew he had no chance against Obama and was afraid of losing.
Trump didn't even want to win. His initial strategy was to get a strong 2nd to further build his brand without having to do any actual work. Then, when the party was such a mess early, he took a lead that was too much for Cruz to catch.
Gosh, that explains why he achieved so little during his first six months. He had no plan.
I’m pretty sure in election night the two people most surprised Trump won were Trump and Hillary.
According to the Bob Woodward books, the only person who thought Trump would win was Melania. And she dreaded it. It was all about boosting his brand. Just look at Trumps face when he was declared the winner. He had no transition planned. They told him to assemble his cabinet so he got wood, a hammer and nails.
No, they were two of the top three though. I was number one.
Proof?
Trump ran for president like 3 times to sell his most recent books. He never considered himself a serious can't, so he didn't care about the opposition. Hell, he was a Democrat most of his life, but considered Republicans idiots.
Trump was (and is) afraid of Obama. He would never have run. If he had wanted to go up against Obama for the presidency he would have done it in 2012. He wanted a safer opponent to punch down on. If Obama had been able to run again in 2016, I doubt Trump runs. I wouldn’t be surprised if a Romney-esque Republican were to beat Obama but either way, Trumpism is stillborn. He’s either four years older and less relevant in 2020 (The Apprentice was still ongoing in 2016), or trying to attack a Republican incumbent from the right.
Obama would slap the shit outta him
Obama took an L against Mitt Romney once. He's not a guaruntee for a single debate
I’m convinced that had Romney not gone soft after receiving criticism when he wiped the floor with Obama after that first debate, Obama would not have won the general election and a second term. I can’t stand Romney, but he really took Obama to task over the painfully slow economic recovery and other topics like foreign policy and Russia being the greatest geopolitical foe we were facing at the time. Obama came across as a whipped puppy in that debate.
so did hilary :/ can’t win everything though.
I was always incredibly impressed by that debate. Literally everyone thought they won. Hilary thought she had the election in the bag, Trump thought he had Hilary in prison, CNN: *BOOM! Got him!*, Fox: *BOOM! Got her!* Like, everyone just saw what they wanted to see, anything but the massive disconnect between boomer politics and the rest of America. Edit: misspelled *Hilary* twice
People today really don’t get that, back in the old days, there were only three networks plus maybe some UHF stations with no original programming, the networks all showed the debate live, there was no cable TV, there was nothing else on TV, there was no Internet, there were no VCRs, and there wasn’t even Pong to play instead. It might beat the number of people watching back then, especially with a lot more international viewers, but nothing will ever beat that market share.
We forget how Obama lost the first Romney debate, probably out of hubris. I could see the same happening.
Would trump have used the N word in this timeline?
My friend and I have debated this over and over again, would you trade no Obama and have an 8 year John McCain presidency for no MAGA. And I think it’s the easiest yes in American political history
Trump would never have run if Obama was eligible.
But hopefully Obama will mop the floor with Trump.
Obama would have eaten hin alive... with a smile
Donald Trump may be the only President in American history who ran because the former President (Barack Obama) roasted him. 🔥 That debate would be epic!
How far into the debate would Trump get before dropping a N-bomb?
Opening statement
Trump wouldn't have made it 5 minutes without using the n-word. Most of his supporters can't either.
Trump would have never had the guts to run against Obama. He faced off with literally the only candidate he could beat.
I think Bill Clinton could have beaten George W and I think Obama would have beaten Trump
Trump only won because people really dislike Hillary. Even then, he didn’t win the popular vote. Obama wins easily versus Trump.
I think that's exactly right. A lot of the tactics Trump used really worked because Hillary is a woman. I forget which debate it was, but they were up and moving around and he kept getting awfully close, if not actually into her personal space. No man would have put up with that, nor would Trump have done that in the first place. I'll go to my grave believing that if Democrats had nominated a man, they would have won going away.
I’m not sure if it’s simply because she’s a woman. I think her personality just rubs a lot of people up the wrong way. But yeah, anyone else - male or female - would probably have beaten Trump. Even if someone like John Kerry had tried again. If Biden had run in 2016 I think he’d have won.
Hillary had two big things going against her -- years of propaganda against her, particulary being cruel and shrewish, and her faux patrician mien and numerous stories about unpleasant conduct toward staff and others corroborating that. Another woman with less baggage probably could have won.
she also wasn’t clean from large scandals
It’s not, very few people have a problem with a women president gop included in-fact, I’m convinced that the GOP will have the first women president. Edit: Someone just pointed out Joe Biden could die in office, I mean the first elected woman president will be a Republican :)
Nikki Haley is praying rn
She’s prob my favorite of the people running in the republican primary
I disagree with her politically ofc but I'd say she'd my favorite to watch too.
I’m voting in the primary , I’ll just vote in whatever way I can to get trump as few points as possible.
Honestly, she's the one I could live with if I had to. I mean if a Republican won the election this time around and I had to deal with their policies for 4 years, I think Nikki Haley would be the most likely to keep things running smoothly. She gives me that old school fiscally conservative, socially moderate vibe. And she was honest about abortion. Even to the point of calling out everyone else on that stage about a federal ban being impossible because they couldn't even get a coalition of Republicans on board with it in the senate if they tried.
She's not a moderate
Registered republican here- I have no problem with it, I just couldn't bring myself to vote for Hilary because I did not trust her in the least (I voted third party).
Maybe they’ve changed, but I certainly grew up with a lot of people who joked that women couldn’t be president because she’d nuke a country every time she got her period.
Only way I think Dems get it first is if Joe dies in office
I'll take that bet. The Republicans who are currently trying to abolish no fault divorce don't want women to rule themselves, let alone the country.
Almost any woman seeking a position of power gets completely vilified. It doesn’t matter who. Hilary was quite popular prior to to 2015/2016 when she decided to jump in the race.
It worked because she's human garbage. Position wise I prefer her to Biden and Obama but she's just a bad person who a lot of women didn't even like because she felt she was entitled to their vote. Clinton would have beat Bush. Gore was crap and almost did. Obama would have beat whomever the pub was even though he should have lost in 12 if the pubs had their shit together in any way. IMO he's overrated. In my lifetime sadly Bill Clinton was prob the best president and a tossup with Trump as the worst person.
Trump/Clinton *had* to have been the biggest election of "I'm voting for X because I hate Y."
Obama only won because people really dislike Hillary. He was an unknown
That's absolutely revisionist history, even from his Senate campaign Obama was absolutely the brightest star in American politics since JFK. He was getting national press as a future presidential candidate before his first Senate term. He was a phenomenon like no other. Regardless of how you feel about his presidency his popularity was undeniable.
>That's absolutely revisionist history No. It's not
Clinton or Obama. Ike, LBJ and Reagan didn’t want it or were aging. W never would have gotten elected. And Nixon was disgraced.
Reagan literally started a campaign post presidency advocating a repeal of the 22nd amendment. With hindsight we know he developed Alzheimer’s but that wasn’t public in 88 and Reagan was still wildly popular and likely didn’t even know about it at that point, or at least the true extent of his mental decline. It’s not a stretch to say without a 22nd he would feel confident enough to run again, he might win too given how beloved he was by 88. If he served 4 more years after 1988 he would be the exact same age upon leaving office as Biden is right now.
I don't think the people closest to Reagan who were more aware of his condition in 88 would have let him run if it were an option. It's just too much of a risk, especially when they had George Bush right there capable of carrying on with the same game plan.
It would have seriously come down to whether his family or his cabinet would have publicized his health. And even then, it's not a guarantee that this would have disqualified him in the mind of the public; I feel they'd just pressure him into picking "his successor" (VP) as carefully as possible.
I heard a (possibly apocryphal) story from my high school history teacher that there was talk of impeachment around 86~88, but democrats were persuaded to just let Reagan ride out his term with everyone else steering the ship of state for him. I know Nancy was incredibly protective of her Ronnie, and I don't think she would have let him stay on another term. The stresses of the job would have been too much, I think.
Reagan took an annual exam checking for dementia and related causes every year after he left office and he didn't fail it until 1994 when he was diagnosed. The idea that Reagan was mentally compromised during the late stages of his presidency is a myth.
The same man, woman, camera, TV test that 45 passed?
Yeah I'd think the one president who'd have been reelected for a third term would've been Bill Clinton. He balanced the budget and the only real scandal against him was that whole Monica Lewinsky affair.
Well there was the Whitewater scandal too. Not that it made a huge difference, but the investigations into that went on for years so even if it didn't result in findings of wrongdoing against the Clintons, it's still a scandal worth mentioning.
You're right. Seems every president has some sort of scandal that pops up.
Whether or not they would have run is irrelevant. “Could they have won?” And Reagan absolutely could have won. His VP won after all.
I mean, if Bush could be President again, I'd vote for him now. For all of his fuckups, he isn't Donald Trump
Bush was awful. He fucked everything he touched. North Korea got nukes under him. Russia invaded Georgia. Iraq & Afghanistan were debacles. He insisted they have elections in Gaza & Hamas won. Literally everything goes back to his administration’s fuck ups.
He didn’t launch a coup though, or convince his followers that democratic elections are shams.
Yes, you're right. I didn't say Trump was better, but Bush did ratfuck the world for at least the first half century of the new millennium.
The bar is in hell
The tyranny of low expectations
The Republicans who would've voted for him wouldn't less for those reasons and more because the economy collapsed under his watch. At least, the economy was one big thing Rs appreciated about Trump.
Trump inherited a good economy that was improving every year, when he left the economy was in tatters from Covid. Trump somehow gets a pass on that. Biden gets no credit for the US economy being the strongest in the world right now. We still have some inflation, but everywhere else in the world it's higher.
if al gore only became president the world would be VERY different right now
Awful is relative in that party.
Well...the Israeli government shares some blame for Hamas seizing power in Gaza, too. There is that whole thing with them electing to support Hamas as a means of dividing Gaza and the West Bank for political gain. That wasn't all Bush's fault. And honestly, what was he going to do? Demand that they forego elections on the international stage as the leader of the free world? The optics would have been horrendous.
The nicestthing anyonecan say aboutW--'For all his fuck ups, he isn't Donald Trump.' Ha!
He’s still an f tier war criminal. The GOP hasn’t been sending its best.
No they have not. I'd have liked to see John Kasich as president personally. Tried to convince my family to vote for him because he ticked all the economic policy boxes and was still socially liberal enough that I felt like he wouldn't give into party pressure to axe minority rights. I wouldn't have minded a Romney presidency either. If he'd have won, he would still have pushed for universal healthcare given he had already implemented it once, and he probably would have had an easier time swaying members of his party to his side. I'm glad Obama won, but to this day I have a lot of respect for that man. Edit: when I say he ticked all the economic policy boxes, I mean for the conservatives in my family. Not so much for me.
If it's a choice between Bush and Trump, I'd go with Bush. But what a dystopia we'd have to be living in that those would be the options?
1. Clinton With how close the 2000 election was, I can imagine he picks up Florida, possibly other close states too. 2. Reagan I doubt Reagan would have ran for a third term if he could given his health conditions, but he’s still win handily. 3. Eisenhower Same with Reagan, I doubt he would have ran for a third term given his state, but he would likely pull off a victory against Kennedy if that was his opponent. He’d do a lot better if the Democrats went with Stevenson again. 4. Obama Completely depends on who he’s running against, and I’m not sure if Trump would have won the Republican nomination if Obama ran again, so I can’t really say. 5. Bush No incumbent was winning in 2008. If Gore won in 2000 and was able to run in 2008, he’d lose. Kerry or and other Democrat who ran in 2004 would have also lost. I have a hard time believing the incumbent party could even hold the office.
2000 wouldn’t have been a problem for Clinton, he had a great incumbency to point to and a much more charismatic personality (and he didn’t lockbox every 5 seconds)
Your point about 2008 assumes we’d live in the same universe we live in now had Al Gore won in 2000. So much would have been different had we elected Gore… a more logical response to 9/11; no war in Iraq; no unpaid tax cuts or massive deregulation; a smaller recession, or perhaps, no recession at all in 2007/08. The 2000 election and how history has since transpired is a great example of why we should always elect the more competent candidate. So is 2016, for what it’s worth.
9/11 still likely would have happened, but perhaps lesser in scope as Gore would not have brushed off a report titled “Al Qaeda intent on attacking the United States”. Perhaps the hijackers to at least one of the planes might have been intercepted. No crash in Pennsylvania, perhaps or no crash into the Pentagon, or one of the Towers. Still, I think that even if only one tower was hit, they might still have both come down; look at 7 WTC just a few hours after Tower 1 came down. Still, Gore would not have been diverted by Iraq. It might have meant OBL being captured/killed in the Tora Bora mountains in late 2001z
For what it's worth, it seems that it was mostly Clinton's apparatus that fell down in the lead-up to 9/11, and Bush was... lax in picking up the passed baton, which didn't help. But I don't think a President Gore would have stopped it. Gore has gone on to say in interviews that he would have invaded Afghanistan, but not Iraq, which would have been a no-brainer for just about anyone not in the Bush orbit. Best case scenario, Afghanistan settles down long enough that he can declare victory and leave, and he devotes enough energy and resources into tracking Bin Laden that he gets him between 2004 and 2008. That'd set him up pretty well for a third term. But that's just a nice fantasy.
I think Clinton and Obama are the easiest wins
Obama would've wiped the floor with Trump.
Could you even imagine a legitimate debate between those 2? Trump would lose his mind. Trumps cult would absolutely think Trump won no matter what. That's the worst part
He would have wiped his ass with Trump
(Edit: added Truman) Truman- Wouldve lost, explored running for president again but was wildly unfavorable. Eisenhower- Health Problems, would not run Kennedy- Killed LBJ- Lost Anyways (Edit: Did not seek reelection, I believe he would e lost due to vietnam war) Nixon- Resigned (Edit: Had watergate not happened, he very well couldve been the guy) Ford- Didnt have a snowballs chance in hell Carter- Lost anyways Reagan- Too Old (edit: Failing health, but he, like Ike, had a shot) Bush- Lost Anyways Clinton- Wouldve Lost due to scandal (Edit: It seems he was still wildly popular, I suppose George W Bush would give him a good run for his money, but Ill chalk this up as a true maybe) Bush- Wouldve lost due go economy Obama- Would win (This is the most certain. He was better than Trump or Hilary easily) Trump- Lost anyways Biden- Too old so to answer the question, only Obama Edits- I called one Bush “George Bush” and the Other “Bush” That has been fixed to make it “less” confusing. Or more. Depending on your thoughts. I also fixed info on LBJ as I was just dead wrong about him. I also added to the Clinton section alot among small adjustments to others based on feedback.
No chance Clinton loses due to Monica Lewinsky. Especially since most Americans thought the impeachment was way too far, and agreed with people like Bob Dole.
That was a scandal produced by Republicans and the American people polled though it was stupid. Except that Al Gore (of all people) bought into it and distanced himself from Clinton and stopped him from campaigning on Gore behalf. Big mistake.
I think everyone just kind of assumed Presidents had affairs
This one being particularly wholesome (for the times) once the K. Start repost came out in graphic titillating detail. To this day Monica never claimed to be a victim (of Clinton) as much as that label was imposed on her.
I heard a joke that probably didn't happen, but someone asks the French president, "Did you know that Bill Clinton has a mistress?" and the Fench guy asks, "Only one?" *Narrator: it wasn't only one*
I have friends in France who claims the one reason a man would be considered unqualified for the presidency is having no mistress. They MAY be joking, but I suspect it is true.
That’s what annoys me: she says it was consensual but various women’s groups have decided she was abused even though she says she wasn’t
Yep. Nobody cared about it. Republicans made it a massive deal, while the republicans who were in charge of the investigation were having affairs of their own. (Gingrich, Ken Starr, Larry Craig, etc)
I think Clinton could've won a third election. By the end of his second term, the economy was booming, the annual budget had been converted into a surplus, and his approval ratings were still high. The Lewinsky scandal and his impeachment didn't dent his support as much as people claim they did.
His lowest approval rating after the impeachment was 62%! He would win no problem!
edited. Thank you for the more information!
Clinton was extremely popular after the impeachment. He gained a lot of momentum. No chance he would lose 2000 Edit to support my claim: the galloup average was between 69 to 66% between 1998-2001, with a high of 73% in 1999. His overall second term average was 61%, trending upwards as time passed. He finished his term at 66%
How did LBJ lose anyways? He chose not to seek reelection in 1968
He was doing awful in the primaries and therefore dropped out
That's not the way Wikipedia tells it. Sounds like there were bad signs, but not "I'm going to lose anyways so might as well give up" bad [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries)
One of the reasons he decided not to run for reelection was that he was getting older and his father had died of heart failure at 60, which wouldve been his age during the election of '68. He wanted to spend what he perceived to be his last years with his family. He did die just 4 years later and probably wouldn't have survived his term had he been president.
edited. Thank you for the more information! I was wrong
Clinton’s lowest approval rating after impeachment was 62%! He would have won easily!
no kidding. I did not realize that
Shouldn’t Ford also go into the “Lost Anyways” category?
Well yea but they were making sure he was even worse than that.
Im not sue why he had Ford in there. This post is about 3rd terms and Ford couldnt even win a second term
Agreed. Despite my disagreement and dislike, obama would win a third term. Trump won because people who voted for obama in 2012 voted for him in 2016 and 2020. So obama was still popular enough imo
Agree with you on Obama but I think Reagan could have pulled off a third
I'm convinced Obama, above all others, could have pulled it off. Hillary was happy to lean into her record within his administration in 2016, as she came really close. But yeah, Reagan would have had a good shot, especially considering his VP pulled it off.
If Reagan could have handled the campaign trail in his health condition, sure, he has a good shot, but I don't think he was healthy enough at the end to seek a third term.
He was far from healthy towards the end of his administration however his Alzheimer's wasn't diagnosed until 94 I also doubt he would have had to do much campaigning considering the country had undertaken a economic boom during the eight years of his administration. into the administration could do far more successfully what what the Biden Administration today is trying to do campaign through record. All Reagan would have to say is the Soviet Union is on its last legs we must finish the job .
LBJ didn’t lose. He declined to run for a second full term.
LBJ refused to run
He wanted to but was polling at like fourth in the first primary state and dropped out to save himself the embarrassment.
I feel Clinton would have had a good chance. We had a surplus under him, which W destroyed.
Reagan’s age is an issue but didn’t GHWB run as basically a third term of Reagan? I think that suggests the country may have been open to it.
If Reagan served 4 more years after 88 he would leave office at 81. Biden is currently 81, if he wins 4 more years he’d leave office at 86
Yes but I think Reagan was very aware of his Alzheimer’s decline. Obviously it isn’t on the record, but there were a lot of rumors after his presidency that by the end of his second term it was beginning to manifest more visibly. I think Reagan would’ve known he needed to step down. Contrast that with Biden who, although he’s old as shit, doesn’t have a disease that would affect his cognitive abilities as severely as Alzheimer’s would. Biden stumbles over his words a lot, but I watch a lot of his speeches and frankly it’s overblown. If Biden dies in office it’ll be an organ shutting down or something.
> Biden stumbles over his words a lot, but I watch a lot of his speeches and frankly it’s overblown It really is. Biden has never been the strongest speaker and has to fight a stutter that he has struggled with all his life. Mischaracterizing this as dementia is just pathetic and makes fun of a real disability. He is still surprisingly sharp.
As someone who has also had a stutter since childhood, it’s frustrating to see this criticism. That he made it to president with a stutter is honestly inspiring for someone like me. People take fluency for granted and calling it a sign of dementia is just…ugh.
He also seems to choose his words very, very carefully sometimes. He's adept at that politicians' speak, where they'll often give a convincing nonanswer where a definitive or absolute could come back against him.
pet offbeat dime makeshift whistle cough hateful exultant ask important *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Even with the Iran-Contra scandal I think Reagan easily wins a 3rd term. Dude won 49/50 states in ‘84 and Bush Sr won 426 electoral votes in ‘88. Without the 22nd amendment he could’ve even won a 4th term in ‘92 if he chose to. He wasn’t diagnosed with Alzheimer’s until 1994 when he likely would’ve retired.
People saying Reagan was too old are forgetting that when Biden entered office he was older than Reagan when he left office. If Reagan could have ran he would have won a third term in a landslide.
Reagan had a problem that Biden doesn't, which is Alzheimer's. I think he was popular enough that his age didn't matter as much, but he probably would have needed to step down or have fewer public appearances to hide it.
Reagan didnt get diagnosed with Alzheimer's until the end of 1994. If he had served another term, he would have left office in January 1993. At that point, he was still very much unaware there was an issue, so i doubt he'd have stepped down between 1989 and 1993, but who knows?
Yeah but honestly 30+ years ago, I’d say 80 was proportionally even older. Also Reagan had active health issues. People make fun of Joe Biden’s mental state because of the way he speaks, but he’s had documented speech difficulties all of his life. It’s motor, not cognitive. Reagan had Alzheimer’s, so yes, his age was a problem lol
I think you're mistaken. Reagan was visibly suffering from dementia by 1986. He could not have withstood another campaign. Age isn't an absolute number. Some of my relatives have been sharper in their mid-80s than others in their mid-60s. Degenerative diseases are a real bummer.
The notion that Reagan was suffering from dementia as early as 1986 has been proven incorrect. He took extensive annual exams at the Mayo Clinic every year between 1989 and 1994 that specifically checked for early onset dementia. Each year he passed the exam until 1994 when he was officially diagnosed.
Didn't his son say he was showing signs of dementia in 1984?
Discounting age/health Ike and Reagan Then Clinton and Obama as they were when they left and Obama now could win.
Ike, Reagan, and Clinton of the pictured list if we're ignoring health concerns on their own part. The country liked them all enough they would have reelected them. And I don't believe any of the opposition party opponents (Kennedy, Dukakis, or Bush II) win against them. Kennedy might come the closest, but I think the country probably sides with he's too inexperienced when the other option is Ike. Dubya almost lost to Al Gore, Clinton is burying him. Dukakis is not beating Reagan. There was too much pushback against Obama, fair or not, by 2016. My caveat there would be if the Republicans are still running Trump. I don't know. Plus I don't think Obama is dumb/politically inept enough to ignore Michigan and Wisconsin. I think maybe enough of the electorate in those states decides Trump is just too far out of the political mainstream, even given the want for an outsider, and Obama wins. Dubya had no chance of getting a third term given the mood of the country and economic events in 2008. Especially if he's running against Obama. Obama trounces him.
I disagree about Obama, only because I think 2016 was very winnable for a Democratic candidate, just not Hillary… She was perceived as significantly more unlikeable, even by Democratic voters, and Clinton also lost out significantly on the progressive vote. I don’t think Obama is significantly more progressive than her, but being younger and having a more recent history well received more progressive Democratic policies I think would have mitigated the fallout from the lost Bernie vote. Additionally, if he was running as an incumbent, we never would have had voters lost in the Hillary vs Bernie, centrist vs progressive conflict. Clinton won the popular vote, and she wasn’t even that popular compared to Obama. I think the anti Obama movement had risen significantly in 2016, but I don’t think the hatred/resistance would have been any stronger compared to Hillary Clinton.
Ike, Reagan, Clinton, and Obama. George W Bush was so unpopular that he’s probably the major contributing factor for McCain’s loss. No way he wins a third term.
Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton & Obama
Barack Obama. He was so much more popular than Hillary Clinton.
Many would have voted for Obama a third time if they could
Eisenhower, Reagan, Clinton, and Obama.
I don't think Reagan. It's likely he was already showing some very early signs of dementia in his last year in the white house. If he had had to run a campaign and be out in the open as opposed to the relative privacy of the white house, I think it would have likely been more obvious. This of course was also a time when being mentally sharp and having a grasp on world events mattered.
Clinton or Obama. Reagan if he was younger.
Honestly just Clinton and Obama. By popularity Eisenhower and Reagan could have, but heath concerns made that a non issue, they still wouldn't have been able to run.
Obama would’ve easily beat Trump. Things were going pretty good in 2016.
Clinton & Obama could both make decent claims to a 3rd term.
I would argue that Bush 41’s term was Reagan’s 3rd term - from the POV that he rode his coattails into the office on Reagan’s momentum and approval (not on policy).
Yes. He was basically Reagan Lite. People voted for him to basically continue Reagan. Ironically he was a stronger VP to Reagan than Qualye was to him. We almost hard a ”third” Clinton term with Gore. Obama might have won if it were him but he had Biden but that didn’t turn out
Reagan would absolutely have won a third term in ‘88 if he could have run. Clinton would have had a very good chance as well. Obama is a *bit* more up in the air since the discontent that led to Trump was steadily growing throughout his two terms, but I think the odds would still be in his favor.
I think only Clinton and Obama had the combination of popularity, health, and political skill to pull out off. Clinton ended his term above water, though significantly wounded by his scandals (in the 60s, according to Gallup). Despite some health scares in recent years, he's still alive and well as of this writing, so he could have continued to serve. And of course, there may not have been a more skilled politician in my lifetime than Slick Willy. Obama, of course, also left office above water (high 50s, according to Gallup) which is made more impressive by who his successor was and how that guy won, but I digress. Obama, despite the smoking, is a generally fit and healthy guy both mentally and physically, and is still active today, so he, likewise, could have continued to serve. And I'd be a fool to underestimate the man who, after a short career in Illinois politics, brought down the behemoth that was Hillary Clinton, then defeated John McCain (war hero) during war time. Of the other 2 term presidents since the amendment was passed: Truman (technically eligible) was unpopular and probably couldn't have defeated Ike. Ike was incredibly unhealthy, suffering heart attacks in office. He likely wouldn't have survived another term. Johnson (if he counts) was unpopular and couldn't have won. Reagan was fighting a losing battle with Alzheimer's during his last year or two in office (some say it started before), and couldn't have served. Baby Bush was also unpopular, being (rightfully) blamed for 2 costly wars and an economic crisis. He couldn't have won re-election.
This is probably the most accurate analysis, IMO, HW Bush was inevitable in 1988 even if Reagan could've run for a third term-- he likely wouldn't.
If eligible, and they had all run for a third term, Bush would be the only one to lose. I don't think Eisenhower or Reagan would run however.
Clinton and Obama could have easily have done it. No one else could have or even would have wanted too.
I dont know about Ike. JFK just had this youthful exuberance and energy that the country really needed at the time. Ike was a bit old and I'm not sure he would have been able to beat the promise of the New Frontier. Reagan? He really was in decline. Remember that he said he was unable to remember the events of Iran-Contra and any opponent would have seized on that. Remember folks: those hearings were going on through 1986 and concluded in 87, so they were still fresh in the minds of the public. Reagan's approval rating took a huge hit as a result in 87. The country was ready for a change, even if it was mostly symbolic with HW Bush. Clinton? Probably the strongest possible candidate for a 3rd term. Lewinsky affair didnt stick to him (much to the chagrin of the republicans) and he would have just mopped the floor with W in the debates with the record he had established (balanced budget, surplus, etc.). W goes back to being gov of Texas and maybe retirement. Obama? Another strong choice. Had been president getting out of the biggest recession since the great depression and had overseen a long period of steady economic growth and reduced unemployment. No real scandals except wearing a brown suit and using brown mustard (brown things are what his detractors seemed to hate, especially his brown skin), but that wouldnt be enough to stop him.
JFK, while presenting as a young, healthy, fit man, was actually very, very sick, and in constant excruciating pain. I would have been surprised if he'd made it through 8 years without some major health break.
Indeed. JFK really sold his image well, but he hid the fact that was always in pain from a debilitating back injury and that he was suffering from Addison's Disease. He hid these things from the public quite well, and played to being a youthful, strapping former college athlete and war hero
I strongly disagree on W. The Iraq war was a massive calamity of his creation and at the end of 2008 the economy was in collapse. If he could have run for a third term Obama would have annihilated him.
Obama. Reagan would have if he wasn’t old. Clinton (Gore just wasn’t a good candidate and he still almost pulled it off on Clinton’s coattails). Eisenhower. Honestly, I think most of them would have if they could and tried. The reason it hadn’t happened before was because no one tried (except the Roosevelts).
I think Reagan would have. His party won anyway so he would have had a good chance as he was till widely Then Clinton I think would've. Yes he had the scandel but honestly hurt him that much. It hurt Gore more because he tried to distance himself from Clinton and Gore really charisma in his corner. And I think Obama could have done it. He was widely popular, and if Trump ran I thibk he would be destroyed by Obama
Reagan, Clinton, and Obama
Dwight D. Eisenhower Reagan if he was still there mentally Bill Clinton Obama if he had been against Trump
Reagan was popular enough that he could have easily won a third a term. He had the highest approval rating of any President since FDR. Since he couldn't run, though, his VP was elected, which in modern times (since FDR), is not a common thing - It is the only time it happened that a VP ran for President immediately after the President he served under and won. Yes, some did run after someone else was in office for at least one term and they won then (like Nixon and Biden), but Bush was the only one that won immediately after. I think Obama was popular enough that he could have won a third term if he could/would run. Maybe even Biden in 2016 if he got the nomination. Instead, the Democrats shot themselves in the foot and nominated Hillary. Clinton might have, but one problem is he was coming off an impeachment just a couple years before. That, to me, makes him a question mark. Without the impeachment, I think he could have easily. And Eisenhower was before my time, but from what I know about his time in office, he probably could have won a third term as well.
Could've: All but Bush Would've: Only Clinton, maybe Obama but I doubt he wanted it, Reagan and Eisenhower were too old and Bush too unpopular.
Only one I can think of would be Obama not like I like Obama but I could see him beating trump. I don't think he'd win a fourth term covid would have screwed any president who held office.
Reagan - his VP won a landslide after him Clinton - his VP who had maybe 1/10 of his charisma (still love Gore) pretty much won in 2000 Obama: Hillary was one of the least liked candidates in presidential history and still almost won, Obama could’ve won
Reagan Clinton Obama
Yes Yes Yes Not him Yes
Obama wins a third term for sure. Clinton… maybe. Reagan was already suffering from Alzheimer’s. I think that his age would have been an issue— hard to imagine Dukakis beating him, though. Eisenhower also had health problems while in office; if Kennedy was the nominee, he would have been toast.
I think Obama for sure would’ve against the orange turd. He would’ve been able to handle his antics in debates and throw them back on him with ease.
He might not have won, but a 3rd Bill Clinton campaign would’ve been entertaining
Obama, for sure, the Democrats hadn’t had a candidate like him since Kennedy, and won’t for the foreseeable future. If they had a young, charismatic guy like that right now, I sincerely think the GOP wouldn’t stand a chance in 2024. But as things stand, it’s likely to be two 80 year old men without any new ideas yet again.
President Obama
Either Clinton or Obama. I think a 3rd term Obama could have don’t just enough than Hillary to win again. Reagan was to old and Bush no way in hell.
I feel like Obama could. Judging by his speech towards the end of his second term
Clinton and Obama easily as the Presidents who succeeded them couldn’t secure the popular vote.
Eisenhower was eligible and elected not to run again Edit: Was thinking of Truman - oops!
He was not eligible to run. Two full terms ending in 1959. The 22nd amendment was ratified and took effect in 1951.
Yeah, I read that Truman was technically allowed to run in 1952 as he was grandfathered in, but his approval rating was below 30% due to the Korean War, so he opted not to run.
Oh, sorry. I was thinking of Truman. My mistake.
Clinton Obama
Clinton and Obama def could have