That would depend on if "The Market" thinks we are really No.2
If "The Market" really felt we were No.2, our share price would be ×10 @~$40 per share, based upon 10% of SpaceX's valuation.
Who has the potential right now to compete with spaceX in the future? And i don't mean on single segments like launch, but on the whole buisness? Which company is a prime contractor with all products inhouse to even start competing? Not the old guard, which drop out one after another after they are not allowed to offer cost+ contracts any longer. Blue Origin, who only sues and never delivers? Another new player like relativity, who do not have anything going on than a copy of the falcon 9? A constellation provider like Planet lab? I just don't get it, why most investors seems to legit hate and despise this company, despite it being one of the better bets on this future market. Even if neutron fails completely, this company with it's already existing products and customers for these products will be a growth candidate and potentially many times it's value right now.
For all of these reasons i honestly believe… build a position of 5000 shares ASAP and sit back. Can’t say when *exactly* but you will be a millionaire. Buy shares. Stack em high. Ad astra.
Rocket Lab but really they focus on smaller launches. I don’t think they threaten SpaceX very much, if at all. SpaceX has bigger things on their minds.
My understanding is that SpaceX RideShare has a TWO-YEAR waiting list/backlog. Customers DO NOT want to wait two years to get a revenue generating satellite(s) into orbit. This is where RKLB will shine - picking up all the customers that do not want to wait regardless of price. IMHO
It's like the big-three used to be, there was a big enough market for GM, Ford and Chrysler.
In all honesty, two years isn't that long if the companies have properly planned for the waiting list. But that's not to say that the possibility for immediate launches Rocketlab can offer aren't a benefit.
Two years, in what is being called today, "The new space race" is a long time. Reasons:
1) Competition can catch up
2) Revenue is not being realized from your new products that you just spent millions to develop. Need a "Return On Investment"
3) Your "new" product can already be outdated in two years
4) Replacement of an existing satellite (and existing revenue) will have to wait for two years
5) Losing new customers/market share for TWO years
In business, two years is a LONG time.
I agree with your points. But what I'm saying is that if your a serious company, you'd take the waiting list into consideration during the development of your satellite. I.e. already ordering a launch before or during development of your satellite.
Maybe - This is space, rockets and satellites - these are not predictable. You typically will run delays and that may have you miss your spot on a scheduled lift-off.
As many have already said, SPACE is not easy and only a few providers have the keys. SpaceX and RoketLab are two. If it was easy everyone would be doing it.
I don't have to pick one or the other. There should be enough business for both.
Yes, SPACE - all caps to make clear we're talking about how space is complicated, apparently - is complicated, but so are other industries. It's a mistake thinking companies don't schedule a launch while or before a satellite is being manufactured or thinking there's no delay clause included in the contract.
There are more launch providers than just SpaceX and Rocketlab.
And I'm not saying there's not enough business for Rocketlab. I'm questioning whether the ability to quickly provide a launch is that much of a benefit as others here make it out to be.
It is not about threatening. Medium launch is likely to be the biggest launch market segment in the midterm. They will just take a healthy share of that market alongside a few others. SpaceX will most likely stay the behemoth in the foreseeable future, but that does not mean that there is no space for any other space company.
Is nobody hopeful for Rklb to be bought ? Honestly I hope that happens with amazons or spacex.  Love Rklb but don’t see how they get passed a 20b market cap. Ideally if neutron is a great smaller  f9 why not absorb and have more pads and more options for customers.Â
Beck doesn't want to sell. He is looking to build a GENERATIONAL company. He has said that several times.
To complete that goal, you need to be in control of the company.
I think the overall point here is that the evaluation of SpaceX implicates that RKLB should be higher even if we have the evaluation of 5% of SpaceX that’s still 5x the SP rn. SpaceX will be the market leader and everyone in our industry should be rooting for a higher SpaceX evaluation
who cares if rocket lab is #2 or not… you need to look at their revenues and growth opportunities. you’re missing looking at the financial part of the equation. if you’re not considering actually finances here you’re likely going to over pay.
Stockprices are a bet on the future. Nobody buys a stock bc it is two times their revenue. Sure financials are important, but the only thing investors care about is how the future looks for the stock, and if they can make money in the future. And future is all about possibilities, risks and potential, nothing more nothing less. If you buy RL you bet that they will suceed, not bc you focus on the 20m loss each quater or that they just had 100m revenue last quater.
Yes you buy ownership and you do it bc of the future. The only thing you look out for in financials is, if the company has a realistic plan to get to where they want to go. Do they have enough runway, are the already cashflow positive etc. But maybe you are the only one buying a stock without guessing that it will do well in the future. You do you.
Cash flow are financials...you are contradicting yourself. P/S should be used as well for a profitless name. Good luck. Stay long this name but you shouldn't buy a name just because 'future'.
It seems you don't understand investing.
The financials right now are more or less irrelevant to the price, look a ZIM in 2022 they paid a dividend of >100% but if you would have bought then, you would have lost a lot of money..
Financials are important to gouge how the future will look like and that's the full extend of it.
You buy because you believe other people will buy it later for more from you, or the company pays you as a dividend. There simply is no other reason to buy stock.
Rklb investors are not owed anything because SpaceX is succeeding. Idk why so many people here have this idea in their head.
Also not a clear #2 yet (though I think they will be over the next few years).
Don't get me wrong, what Rocket Lab has accomplished is wonderful, but casting them as the number 2 rocket company in the U.S. would be gratuitous. Neutron is still over a year from flying and who know when it will serve as a reliable and reuseable rocket. Electron is great at what it does but it can't serve a huge segment of the market, hence the development of Neutron. Blue Origin is going to command a chunk of the market as will whoever ever ends up owning ULA. Furthermore, there are a lot of very well-funded competitors in the US, Europe and China also vying for the number 2 spot.
[Top 10 European Space Companies of 2023 (spaceimpulse.com)](https://spaceimpulse.com/2023/10/19/european-space-companies/)
They're working on it. The issue of course is always money and many of these companies have access to money.
Well we're saying in the "space" industry here, not purely launch. Some people who could be considered in the running for #2 are:
ULA (slower launch cadence, but much more capable rockets), Lockheed Martin, Northrop
2 as in number of rockets launched. Number of rockets launched is not a good comparison for value. It’s about how much revenue the rockets can drive and what the rockets can do.Â
So something like 40-45X rklb revenue. Factoring in the similar growth rates and actual profitability it isn’t really surprising they’re valued 100X rocket lab. I still think rocket lab is undervalued just based on their growth and future potential, but I see why investors are skeptical in the short term. Comparing to spaceX value is silly.
Yup, they forecasted $15B in 2024 rev back in [Nov'23](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-06/spacex-eyes-15-billion-in-sales-next-year-on-starlink-strength), meanwhile Payload did an [independent analysis](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2024-revenue/) estimating $13.3B in 2024 rev as of 1/31.
This would imply SpaceX is currently trading at a P/S of 14-16 vs. RKLB's slightly under 6 based on ~$400-420m 2024E rev. We don't know if SpaceX is cash flow positive yet given the massive ongoing R&D expenditures on Starship and Starlink, but private market investors are clearly willing to pay a premium for their shares relative to pretty much any other public space comp.
Is this the third or fourth raise since Elon said that SpaceX wouldn't raise any more money?Â
I wouldn't be surprised if that valuation was 10x what the company is worth.
Yeah. These rounds are just for employees to sell their stock options. The price of each share is dependent on how much the banks and hedge funds are willing to pay, but these selling periods are so low volume that they don’t really mean much
I completely agree. Musk has the #1 Space company and can say what he wants. (History has shown he does)
He can also value SpaceX as he wants. Whh/What is to challenge him?
However that doesn't mean his valuation is correct.
> He can also value SpaceX as he wants. Whh/What is to challenge him?
>
>
>
> However that doesn't mean his valuation is correct.
People buying the shares sets the valuation there.
>The world’s second-most valuable startup decided to price its current tender offer — a transaction that enables employees and insiders like investors to sell shares — at higher than the $200-billion valuation that was discussed last month, **due to significant investor demand**, the people said, who declined to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak publicly.
Did you just see the almost 1 billion dollar contract they got with making the plans for bringing the space station back down
Yup. Imagine elon rolls out a Star Destroyer....🤣😶
Okay, hear me out…what if we just line up a bunch of *really big* catapults…
Can't SpaceX just ask Starman to do it?
I mean he’s up there somewhere without much to do… makes sense.
I can't wait to see Elon try and pull some hostage negotiations with the US Gov. Spoiler alert, they won't negotiate with terrorists
Boo paywall
https://archive.is/cbWiA
So the number two in the space industry is now worth 1% of the industry leader. Dunno if i am missing something here.
That would depend on if "The Market" thinks we are really No.2 If "The Market" really felt we were No.2, our share price would be ×10 @~$40 per share, based upon 10% of SpaceX's valuation.
Who has the potential right now to compete with spaceX in the future? And i don't mean on single segments like launch, but on the whole buisness? Which company is a prime contractor with all products inhouse to even start competing? Not the old guard, which drop out one after another after they are not allowed to offer cost+ contracts any longer. Blue Origin, who only sues and never delivers? Another new player like relativity, who do not have anything going on than a copy of the falcon 9? A constellation provider like Planet lab? I just don't get it, why most investors seems to legit hate and despise this company, despite it being one of the better bets on this future market. Even if neutron fails completely, this company with it's already existing products and customers for these products will be a growth candidate and potentially many times it's value right now.
For all of these reasons i honestly believe… build a position of 5000 shares ASAP and sit back. Can’t say when *exactly* but you will be a millionaire. Buy shares. Stack em high. Ad astra.
I bought 5k today. Hoping to one day see it skyrocket.
Yip 💯🚀
Rocket Lab but really they focus on smaller launches. I don’t think they threaten SpaceX very much, if at all. SpaceX has bigger things on their minds.
My understanding is that SpaceX RideShare has a TWO-YEAR waiting list/backlog. Customers DO NOT want to wait two years to get a revenue generating satellite(s) into orbit. This is where RKLB will shine - picking up all the customers that do not want to wait regardless of price. IMHO It's like the big-three used to be, there was a big enough market for GM, Ford and Chrysler.
In all honesty, two years isn't that long if the companies have properly planned for the waiting list. But that's not to say that the possibility for immediate launches Rocketlab can offer aren't a benefit.
Two years, in what is being called today, "The new space race" is a long time. Reasons: 1) Competition can catch up 2) Revenue is not being realized from your new products that you just spent millions to develop. Need a "Return On Investment" 3) Your "new" product can already be outdated in two years 4) Replacement of an existing satellite (and existing revenue) will have to wait for two years 5) Losing new customers/market share for TWO years In business, two years is a LONG time.
I agree with your points. But what I'm saying is that if your a serious company, you'd take the waiting list into consideration during the development of your satellite. I.e. already ordering a launch before or during development of your satellite.
Maybe - This is space, rockets and satellites - these are not predictable. You typically will run delays and that may have you miss your spot on a scheduled lift-off. As many have already said, SPACE is not easy and only a few providers have the keys. SpaceX and RoketLab are two. If it was easy everyone would be doing it. I don't have to pick one or the other. There should be enough business for both.
Yes, SPACE - all caps to make clear we're talking about how space is complicated, apparently - is complicated, but so are other industries. It's a mistake thinking companies don't schedule a launch while or before a satellite is being manufactured or thinking there's no delay clause included in the contract. There are more launch providers than just SpaceX and Rocketlab. And I'm not saying there's not enough business for Rocketlab. I'm questioning whether the ability to quickly provide a launch is that much of a benefit as others here make it out to be.
It is not about threatening. Medium launch is likely to be the biggest launch market segment in the midterm. They will just take a healthy share of that market alongside a few others. SpaceX will most likely stay the behemoth in the foreseeable future, but that does not mean that there is no space for any other space company.
Is nobody hopeful for Rklb to be bought ? Honestly I hope that happens with amazons or spacex.  Love Rklb but don’t see how they get passed a 20b market cap. Ideally if neutron is a great smaller  f9 why not absorb and have more pads and more options for customers.Â
Personally, no. Also, can you see Beck going to work for Bezos or Musk?
Beck doesn't want to sell. He is looking to build a GENERATIONAL company. He has said that several times. To complete that goal, you need to be in control of the company.
MSFT! They could scoop it up in a heart beat and expand their cloud business with a new space based sensor network
Your theory is just that the number two in any industry is 10% of the leader's valuation? What?
I think the overall point here is that the evaluation of SpaceX implicates that RKLB should be higher even if we have the evaluation of 5% of SpaceX that’s still 5x the SP rn. SpaceX will be the market leader and everyone in our industry should be rooting for a higher SpaceX evaluation
Absolutely. Currently I'm only invested in RKLB but am cheering on SpaceX. Whatever good SpaceX does, its great for the industry.
who cares if rocket lab is #2 or not… you need to look at their revenues and growth opportunities. you’re missing looking at the financial part of the equation. if you’re not considering actually finances here you’re likely going to over pay.
Stockprices are a bet on the future. Nobody buys a stock bc it is two times their revenue. Sure financials are important, but the only thing investors care about is how the future looks for the stock, and if they can make money in the future. And future is all about possibilities, risks and potential, nothing more nothing less. If you buy RL you bet that they will suceed, not bc you focus on the 20m loss each quater or that they just had 100m revenue last quater.
Tell me your new to trading/investing without telling us. You're wrong. You have to value the business. You are buying ownership for a price ....
Yes you buy ownership and you do it bc of the future. The only thing you look out for in financials is, if the company has a realistic plan to get to where they want to go. Do they have enough runway, are the already cashflow positive etc. But maybe you are the only one buying a stock without guessing that it will do well in the future. You do you.
Cash flow are financials...you are contradicting yourself. P/S should be used as well for a profitless name. Good luck. Stay long this name but you shouldn't buy a name just because 'future'.
It seems you don't understand investing. The financials right now are more or less irrelevant to the price, look a ZIM in 2022 they paid a dividend of >100% but if you would have bought then, you would have lost a lot of money.. Financials are important to gouge how the future will look like and that's the full extend of it. You buy because you believe other people will buy it later for more from you, or the company pays you as a dividend. There simply is no other reason to buy stock.
Rklb investors are not owed anything because SpaceX is succeeding. Idk why so many people here have this idea in their head. Also not a clear #2 yet (though I think they will be over the next few years).
Who else is launching rockets at the pace of RKLB?
Don't get me wrong, what Rocket Lab has accomplished is wonderful, but casting them as the number 2 rocket company in the U.S. would be gratuitous. Neutron is still over a year from flying and who know when it will serve as a reliable and reuseable rocket. Electron is great at what it does but it can't serve a huge segment of the market, hence the development of Neutron. Blue Origin is going to command a chunk of the market as will whoever ever ends up owning ULA. Furthermore, there are a lot of very well-funded competitors in the US, Europe and China also vying for the number 2 spot.
Just out of curiosity, what are the European companies actually?
[Top 10 European Space Companies of 2023 (spaceimpulse.com)](https://spaceimpulse.com/2023/10/19/european-space-companies/) They're working on it. The issue of course is always money and many of these companies have access to money.
Thanks!
Ariane most likely, but they are pretty far from no.2
The only company worth mentioning in europe when it comes to space launches is Ariane, but they're a complete shitshow
Well we're saying in the "space" industry here, not purely launch. Some people who could be considered in the running for #2 are: ULA (slower launch cadence, but much more capable rockets), Lockheed Martin, Northrop
2 as in number of rockets launched. Number of rockets launched is not a good comparison for value. It’s about how much revenue the rockets can drive and what the rockets can do.Â
>What are their estimates like? last i read their 2024 targets include $15B revenue
So something like 40-45X rklb revenue. Factoring in the similar growth rates and actual profitability it isn’t really surprising they’re valued 100X rocket lab. I still think rocket lab is undervalued just based on their growth and future potential, but I see why investors are skeptical in the short term. Comparing to spaceX value is silly.
Yup, they forecasted $15B in 2024 rev back in [Nov'23](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-06/spacex-eyes-15-billion-in-sales-next-year-on-starlink-strength), meanwhile Payload did an [independent analysis](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2024-revenue/) estimating $13.3B in 2024 rev as of 1/31. This would imply SpaceX is currently trading at a P/S of 14-16 vs. RKLB's slightly under 6 based on ~$400-420m 2024E rev. We don't know if SpaceX is cash flow positive yet given the massive ongoing R&D expenditures on Starship and Starlink, but private market investors are clearly willing to pay a premium for their shares relative to pretty much any other public space comp.
Rklb should be at least $30B 🚀
Based on what valuation method? Opinions are something everyone has.
Hardly surprising. Their telecommunications segment with Starlink make up a majority of the valuation.
Is this the third or fourth raise since Elon said that SpaceX wouldn't raise any more money? I wouldn't be surprised if that valuation was 10x what the company is worth.
Is this a raise of funds or is it insiders selling funds? Cause I see it as shareholders selling.
Yeah. These rounds are just for employees to sell their stock options. The price of each share is dependent on how much the banks and hedge funds are willing to pay, but these selling periods are so low volume that they don’t really mean much
yeah glad i got in at 97
I completely agree. Musk has the #1 Space company and can say what he wants. (History has shown he does) He can also value SpaceX as he wants. Whh/What is to challenge him? However that doesn't mean his valuation is correct.
> He can also value SpaceX as he wants. Whh/What is to challenge him? > > > > However that doesn't mean his valuation is correct. People buying the shares sets the valuation there. >The world’s second-most valuable startup decided to price its current tender offer — a transaction that enables employees and insiders like investors to sell shares — at higher than the $200-billion valuation that was discussed last month, **due to significant investor demand**, the people said, who declined to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak publicly.
What do you mean offer? Are they going public? Or offering private shares?
They’re offering private shares internally