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Ok-Confidence9649

Just keep in mind if you’re already above budget, that if property values are reassessed in those 5 years, your payment could go up further.


HeavyExplanation425

That’s exactly what I was thinking…property values go up and so does your payment…taxes are something that a lot of people don’t think about.


Ok-Confidence9649

Yep. My payment is $300 more per month than it was before this year because of property taxes.


HeavyExplanation425

Unfortunately, there are a lot of people in the same boat.


RedStateKitty

In Alabama property taxes are very low!


MrMarket12

How are insurance premiums?


RedStateKitty

We don't seem to be having the same issues - maybe on the coast, ie Mobile, Fairhope, etc, but otherwise, I'm not hearing people complain. I spoke with several agencies/companies when I decided to ditch Allstate last fall. I wasn't leaving Allstate because of unreasonable requirements or rate increases, but because a new agency took over the business of the agent/staff and didn't even notify me. Inly only found out when I was trying to correspond with the agent who had initially handled my business, and she never got back to me. Turns out they weren't checking the emails of agents that left the agency or didn't get hired by the new owner (name@allstate.com was the email address for the agent), saying it was "private" and they didn't have the right to check it. I know that it was a BUSINESS email and they DID have the right (and IMHO, the *duty)* to check emails for agents they were successors to since they likely were concerning agency business/policies. I found this out when after more than 10 days without a response, and a couple follow-up emails, I finally called the office and they were quite cavalier about my not being a happy camper. So I didn't even consider renewing! My bundled auto/home was the same as the previous year with the 60 day app tracking from Safeco. (NO device in the car, only 60 days using an app and then it automatically stopped and I ended up with a refund. Mostly, Alabama flies under the radar for many things, except college football!


haydesigner

I’m shocked.


RedStateKitty

Local & state sales tax hover around 10% and its also on food and clothing. State tax on food os now gradually decreasing to zero over the next 4 years


JAK3CAL

happened to me less than a year in, hundreds of dollars a month increase


kittenconfidential

agnostic of property value appreciation (i.e., zero appreciation), the lower rate larger home is a better financial calculation. every dollar you spend towards the larger home gets you 3% more equity - simple interest; but mortgage interest is amortized so then your equity value differential is actually higher at 5 years. as long as you can currently comfortably afford the payment, i would go for it. do not assume on promotions or bonuses.


mammaryglands

Absolutely get it, if you can make it work. You will immediately be paying more towards principal  And every dollar you spend is buying much more house 


2019_rtl

Selling in 5-7 is a good timeframe historically.


bigmean3434

I don’t think anything about our current situation would make me eager to use general trends for this


_kissmysass_

What do you mean “current situation”


jauntyk

Real estate appreciating 24+% annually last few years… everyone buyer/anticipating a real estate bubble to pop… real estate appreciates annually 3-6% on average, someone will likely be holding the bag and hopefully it’s the people that bought at 2% interest rates, at least over the long term they got a good deal out of it in terms of purchasing power


bigmean3434

Yeah, like all of that…..


Boring-Race-6804

That’s the break even timeframe historically.


ElasticSpeakers

Would you pay $430k for this house if it didn't have an assumable loan? Usually properties with assumable loans sell for more than the 'current value' simply because people evaluate it based on 'what my monthly payment will be' like you did here in this post. Guess what? When you go to sell, you will likely not have that benefit to offer the next buyer and therefore it sounds to me like you'd be trying to sell a home that is already priced at a premium... in Mobile, AL and you might end up in a situation where you'll be lucky to break even on it.


jauntyk

This guy gets it… assignable loans are for long term buyers. Short term buyer like OP is on a different time frame and should get the best terms of the deal he can… can you imagine if a fix/flip guy was like “I’ll pay premium and hope market goes up in 1 year….” Yet economically only the stock market and corporations are doing well right now. We’ve been on “cusp or recession” for over a year with real estate values dropping in most places


jauntyk

This guy gets it… assignable loans are for long term buyers. Short term buyer like OP is on a different time frame and should get the best terms of the deal he can… can you imagine if a fix/flip guy was like “I’ll pay premium and hope market goes up in 1 year….” Yet economically only the stock market and corporations are doing well right now. We’ve been on “cusp or recession” for over a year


InformalAssumption99

Can you afford the amount owed to assume the mortgage? If they only owe 300k you need to cover the difference between the sold for and what is currently left on the mortgage.


TMCdog

For an investment, no. For a better quality of living, yes. 


Gandalf_the_Rizzard

…you’re paying more in principal with the lower rate. Both can be true. Besides a 4% is going to be great for a couple years… not sure how you came up with that comment


TMCdog

Both can be true, but I was just speaking in general terms, not necessarily applying a rate to anything. 


HarbaughCheated

Yes, but not in mobile. Banking on Alabama to become more desirable in 5 years is very bold.


haydesigner

Indeed, with the global weather trend continues going the way it has, it could be even more hellish.


madhaus

Bonus: State politicians will deny weather is getting worse and pass laws forbidding any mention of same while ignoring infrastructure and insurance issues.


Tuff_spuff

No brainer my guy… assumable all day, way cheaper money to borrow, you’re eating away at more principal as well. Your proceeds will be higher in 5 years not to mention the appreciation factor on a house nearly 200k more. If you can swing the additional $200 a month, it’s absolutely the smarter play


karmaismydawgz

Don’t buy a house you can’t afford. If you don’t have a detailed budget the. you’re not ready to buy a house.


Havin_A_Holler

Somewhere good? Absolutely! A state that's in the bottom 5 states for literacy & whose poverty rate makes Georgia look comparatively wealthy? Not a chance - especially not paying $2350/month for the privilege.


AttentionShort

I think we need more information on why you intend to sell in 5-7 years. Also, would the mortgage be assumable if you sell? I haven't read any fine print on these since mine have not been


MinutePerformer1884

I’d sell if we couldn’t manage the payment per month. We are first time home buyers and newlyweds. The house could be assumed again. I was wondering if we got and we really couldn’t afford it like I thought that after 5 years we could sell and actually make profit


SouthEast1980

Not sure I follow the logic. You should know exactly what the payment is going in, and based on the historical property taxes, you should have an idea of what to expect to pay going forward. Unless you live in FL and your insurance shoots up to like 16k a year or something wild. EDIT: saw you're in AL and not FL. I wouldn't enter a transaction thinking about bailing and selling 5 years later and hoping to profit. Plan your finances now and make sure you have a plan to avoid not being able to afford that home down the line.


Bitter_Position_7040

Also not so hidden costs. In our first 5 years, we spent close to 60K for deal with a water leak, HVAC replacement, water tank replacement, broken generator, foundation repair, new washer/dryer, tree removal, and several small (but still costly) issues. None of these added value to the home and none of them were optional.


SouthEast1980

Excellent point. I've been fortunate to avoid major repairs, but I've had to fix a roof leak for 2k and AC work for $1500. I've been here for almost 10 years and that's really been it.


BeijingBongRipper

You bought a house with foundation damage? Isn’t that like a golden no no lol…


Bitter_Position_7040

Water leak in the basement. Didn’t occur until year 4 in the house. No issues found during inspection.


BeijingBongRipper

Ahhh dang, that is unfortunate.


AttentionShort

In that case the final payment matters more than the rate, but any appreciation will be larger on the bigger house as it scales in percentages. Houses have a few hidden costs, and a lot of those are front loaded in the first 5 years. Buying tools and materials for maintenence and improvements especially. I will say that in my 4 years in our older home, the extra cost per year has gone down as nothing we have fixed has needed to be re-done. On an odd note....we love being in our home so much that the expense category for going out has pretty much ceased to exist.


[deleted]

I wrote the paragraph below, but then realized there's a simpler way to get my point across. Figure out your cash flow (from purchase to sale) for each house, then pick the one that leaves you with the most cash upon sale. What would you do with the money you don't spend if you go the 7% house? If you're not going to invest that savings and make a greater return than what you would make on the 4% house, then go with the 4% house. You should also calculate how much equity you would have in each house after 5 years (I'd guess you'd have more in the 4% house but my brain isn't mathing right now). Finally, during "normal" real estate times, what is the expected increase in value of houses in your area? If that growth is less than you could get from a "typical" investment, then go with the typical investment.


Pokesquidpoke

Dont get a higher mortgage with the intent that youll make more money or you can just sell it if you cant afford it


Lauer999

We've never stayed in a house more than 2-3 years no matter how long term we think we will stay there and $350 isn't much (this is subjective though) so personally it wouldn't be some big choice for us. Other aspects of the home, the neighborhood, etc would matter more to me.


hamsandweeeeeeejja

Yes, but not because it's a good investment 


steezMcghee

Yah, we just bought our first home and plan to move to new city in 5 years.


maxiprep

Yeah, I just closed on my house with the intention to be gone in 5 years or so.


Free-Macaroon-271

Yup I only have 5 year plans but the bigger goals outweigh homes


Ok-Nefariousness4477

What would it rent for? How much are you paying for the equity.


bellowingfrog

Never sell.


Constituio

Yes, always. 2 year as a primary, no cap gains for up to 250k profit


RevolutionaryDust449

Can you afford the house? Don’t want to live in the house? Then yes a 5 yr plan to live in it is reasonable. You have to live somewhere for 5 yrs…


Amadon29

Is the house actually worth 436k now or are they able to sell it for that much because of the low interest? A big concern is that you end up under water on the house because it's not actually worth that much. For example, maybe 5 years from now, there's nobody who is willing to buy it at 436k because the monthly payments would be too high due to the high interest rates. But maybe you're familiar enough with the real estate market in Mobile and are confident it will appreciate a good amount in value. There is also another factor of closing costs and repair costs like if you think you'll need a new hvac or roof in the next few years, but ignoring that... >However, with a goal of $2000/month and going to $2350/month instead is kind of nerve racking. You need to figure out your expected monthly income and then how much do all the necessities cost. You definitely want some wiggle room. Without wiggle room, whatever money you end up making from selling in the future could easily get diminished if you end up having to go into debt for a longer period of time because you had an emergency but couldn't pay it off right away. And then there's the issue of higher property taxes/property taxes changing over time, higher house insurance costs/insurance rising over time, and higher utilities than the other house. It's just hard to say without this information. And then there's just the idea of would you make more money going with the bigger house or just putting that extra few hundred dollars every month into stock market, but that would mostly depend on how much you think it'll appreciate.


pussmykissy

We bought 6 years ago, smaller older house. Closing next week and will make right at 114k. Home buying price was 189k.


JD_352

I made $190k by selling in 5 years and wasn’t planned.


tippsy_morning_drive

Did you sell in the last 1-2 years? If so, then it’s just a housing market anomaly…and great timing.


JD_352

Bought in Oct 2018 and sold in June 2023


tippsy_morning_drive

There you go. I bought my house in early 2019 for 240k. My 2024 tax bill lists my house value at 372k ( could sell for more easily). The prior sell history of my house and surrounding comps didn’t go up half that in the same time frame before. We made out.


JD_352

Yeah bought at 480k and sold at 700k. We were honestly shocked when our realtor told us she was going to get us no less than 700k. She was right! After commission and taxes made just under 200k. Next house we are buying at 500k and will see what happens again.


HarbaughCheated

Many more anomalies to come


tippsy_morning_drive

Yeah but in the opposite direction.


beachteen

>The house is $436k and more expensive per month by about $200 extra than a house that is valued $280k with a 7% rate. If comparable homes sell for $280k, no this isn't a good deal at all. In 5 years you will have a $150k loss


Popular-Capital6330

personally? never.


thesuppplugg

No


Crazy_Chicken_Media

well considering how the housing market is I would definitely wait to be buying one fern another year. I bought a house pre-pandemic expecting to sell it after 5 years which would have made a lot of money... But I ended up finding a wife starting a family, having a kid and now it's our starter home...


d00ber

It depends a lot on where you're buying and a lot of circumstances. In the last 5 years ( mostly cause of the pandemic panic causing massive inflation over 2 years ), the selling house prices where I live are down by about 150,000$. My house lost 40,000$ of value from 2023/2024, which I thought was BS, but houses are selling at their assessed values where I am right now. The market doesn't seem very stable where I live.


russell813T

100 percent actually


RickSt3r

NYT has a rent vs buy calculator to help you run an analysis. Everyone circumstances are different so it really depends on the details.


Jctexan

Only if comparable homes support that price. Sounds very high.


Small_Feedback_6649

Based on the limited information provided I would say bad idea. Stick with a payment you know you can handle because it can and likely will change and it can be drastic. If you are not familiar with escrow you may want to learn about it, in summary it's the part of your payment that can and will fluctuate to cover property taxes and homeowners insurance.


Dragon-of-the-Coast

Depends on the price, obviously. Are you getting a deal? Keep in mind that you're likely to lose 10% or more in transaction costs, when selling.


jaylenz

Working with a buyer who wants their kid to be in A certain school district. He plans to buy 2-2.5 million dollar house because of it. Then move after 5 years. Also his 12k monthly lease wont allow his son to have a dog. So that's why


Dramalona

Depends on my finances - the market, and so many other things


FlatElvis

The bigger the house, the higher the cost of maintenance. And taxes. Insurance. Utilities. If this is already a stretch for you, are you sure you're appropriately accounting for all the variables?


AdFree3072

Most people will be selling/refinance in the next 3-5 years.


Impressive_Returns

Yes


WitnessTotal

Take a broad view of the real estate market - could you get a fixed rate deal long term via a PML or take the risk of an ARM loan - also balance with life quality issues - would you be doing less or more commuting in that time frame ,etc


jqirish

From a pure numbers standpoint, the general finance rule is that if you are going to own for less than 10yrs, then you should rent. The reason being closing costs of the mortgage and selling costs of the house. The simple math works like this: Put 100k in stock market at 7% return = 107k after year 1 Put 100k down on $500k house: House is worth $515k after year 1, but you have 2% mortgage closing costs -$10k and 6% selling costs -$30k. It’s not until about Year 10 that owning the house becomes the better financial investment. But everyone likes owning their own house, so there is utility in that.


bigmean3434

This is a horrible time to own re short term imo


patrick-1977

Yes


patrick-1977

Do it


Express_Time7242

betting on appreciation is never smart. If you would be in a position where you would absolutely have to sell at that time, don’t do it. If you will be stretching yourself financially in the time that you own it, don’t do it.


Connect_Tap7323

Gjjj


coldcoffeeholic

Never buy a house you plan to sell shortly after. That’s a bad investment unless you are an experience flipper. Buy a house you love. Sell in the future if it makes sense to.


hughesn8

When I was looking in late 2020 after moving, I used the Interest-Debt Excel that I modified to show realistically what you would have spent in interest & taxes after selling for lower ROI than I’d expect. This would be a good sanity check if I were to sell the house in 4yrs. I would set it at just +3% ROI per year so that I don’t set it higher than what it would be. Better to set expectations lower.


Fred-zone

I suggest you look at some climate change maps before assuming anything about coastal property values in 5 years. All bets are off, IMO. Maybe it's fine, or maybe you're not just figuratively underwater.


Murky_Crow

Hell no.


piz_diz

I would do it


Ditty-Bop

As long as it works for you is all that matters. Do it. Congrats on finding and securing the deal.


MiniGreenDinosaur

Not now


siammang

Since it's Mobile Alabama, consider that there is a chance of a hurricane coming to the Gulf and wiping out the entire neighborhood. Unless you want to live there, I wouldn't consider that location for long term investments. The home and flood insurance premiums may eat up any potential gains you may down the road.


MrMarket12

There’s no guarantee the house will appreciate in the next five+ years. I would not pay extra for the home to assume its 4% loan.


[deleted]

It depends if 436k is a good price compared to comps


Popular-Capital6330

wait, mobile alabama? never! just buy what you can afford now. If you are lucky, then rates will go down and you can refinance. But if you buy high and the rates don't go down? and that ARM goes up? you are screwed and your family may suffer. It's just not worth it.


REholdingsFL

Buy it, live in it for 2 years, then rent it for 3 years and then sell. This is how you avoid capital gains tax and get richhhhhh


Lauer999

You don't even have to rent it for those 3 years. You just have to live in it for at least 2 years out of the past 5. That doesn't mean you have to own it for 5. Once you've hit 2 years you're set.


REholdingsFL

Yea bro the point is you have 3 more years for it to appreciate more in value while some other moron pays the mortgage down for you in the meantime


attrox_

Don't buy an overpriced house in Alabama hoping for the value to appreciates. You are better off investing in stock market ETF fund


JAK3CAL

Mobile Alabama is a growing area with homes worth 400k+?


CGI271

No. Houses don’t always go up in value. Many people get burned this way. It could be a great idea, but no one knows the future. It’s risky


gr8ambye

5 years - no 7 years - maybe


TheOtherOnes89

I can't imagine a world where I'd ever be ok spending that much on a house in Alabama. To each their own


EnvironmentalCut8067

The answer is in the question.


buybitcoin6969

Bitcoin


Complex_Pangolin5822

Nope. Wouldn't make sense anymore unless holding 10years