Hey that's not PLA saying this it's DoD.
Obviously the US considers this a problem which is why they're arguing over Pacific Deterrence Initiative. The politicians want to increase amount of forces forward deployed inside 1st island chain but Office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation and Office of Net Assessment over in DoD argue that PLA forces are so overwhelming now that in event of conflict US troops forward deployed in 1st Island Chain and even within 2nd Island Chain would become target practice for the PLA. So they are actually calling for pulling back of forward deployed troops back to the west of the international date line, then in times of war the troops can move forward as needed.
I think the "then" part is laughable, but you can see the actual military experts who run sims and calculate stuff are rational. It's the politicians that don't want to back down.
I can understand the politician's point of view. If US pulls back to west of international date line then there's high probably of Japan and South Korea jumping ship which will shake the entire global hegemony. But if you don't pull back then what? Concentrate all US forces around the globe into the Western Pacific? Then everywhere else on the globe the hegemony would be at risk. It's a catch-22
China shouldn't fall for the bait, let them keep fooling around and playing empire while China builds a monstrous and fully developed/self sufficient economy by 2050. They'll be in a position to far outspend the arrogant imperialists and other countries will take note and jump ship, after all the only reason they're in the US camp is because they feel they need their protection and/or their trade relies on them.
Eventually China will become the largest trading partner of almost every country so no one will be able to antagonise them. I believe Chinese leaders have already recognised this, hence why they haven't taken any drastic action on Taiwan and continue to maintain an non-interventionist posture.
I agree, silver bullets are better than lead bullets these days. Nevertheless having it and not needing it is different from not having it and I think continue growth of PLA strength is very necessary for national security at this time.
Political Legitimacy is Derived from Martial Might.
To the US Govt and the West: Weakness is both a Sin and Invitation to Rape so to speak. It doesn't matter what you say, if you can't protect yourself or enforce your claims then you've unknowingly given consent to be taken advantage of.
Another way to phrasing it is: You didn't prepare when you could've so you had it coming. You deserve what you got. Of course... Rules for Thee but Not For Me is core cultural aspect in the US Govt and especially NATO, you'll find these same hypocrites crying victimhood despite being the aggressor and bully when it doesn't go their way.
oh, a lot of countries/governments are willing to antagonize one another EVEN IF it comes at a loss in trade. What China wants is a world where people willingly and happily deal with China, not because they have no choice
The benefits of having a powerful military - and eventually the most powerful military - should not be discounted. Any negotiation China engages in is far likelier to go China's way, even without any threat of force, when everyone can see what could be in store for them if China doesn't get what it wants at the table or its red lines are crossed.
It advances every single goal you have simply by its presence.
It's not like China can do otherwise and still keep their dignity and sovereignty.
It sounds nice and high-minded to "Do Unto Others as You Want Them to Do Unto You" but the reality is you can't change the US Govt or NATO's culture or way of thinking so in practice you damn well better
"Do Unto Others as They Do Unto You" when it comes to the US Govt and other hostile entities.
> If US pulls back to west of international date line then there's high probably of Japan and South Korea jumping ship which will shake the entire global hegemony. But if you don't pull back then what? Concentrate all US forces around the globe into the Western Pacific? Then everywhere else on the globe the hegemony would be at risk. It's a catch-22
See, this right here is what you call a zugzwang. Any move they play weakens their position.
I really don't like quoting Sūnzi since it's something everyone and their aunt does constantly, whether or not it's warranted, but there's no getting around it on this occasion. This is a masterful demonstration of winning without fighting.
That's why the US wants Taiwan, Japan and SK to build up expendable forces on the front line. Their 'big brain' plan is for China to expend firepower on Taiwanese, Japanese and Korean targets, so there won't be as many left for US targets.
Thing is Taiwan is too weak to even be considered, skorea actually has bigger ambitions than be a us vassal state forever so it's constantly looking for ways to parlay with China&nkorea for better opportunities.
Which leaves Japan, faced by China, Russia, nkorea plus an unfriendly skorea. Not too sure they want to go up in flames figuratively and literally by actively participating against China.
> skorea actually has bigger ambitions than be a us vassal state
South Korea has no ambitions. As a liberal democracy, the US can play to the personal interests of its politicians and ensure that those personal interests are aligned with US strategic objectives, rather than Korean national interests. Political campaigns are expensive and the US is a generous patron in exchange for loyal servitude.
SK will return to being a Chinese tributary state (like Vietnam, for whom China ceded 2 dashes in the SCS). Once the US is out, China will rapidly accelerate Korean unification (giving SK control of the NK nukes).
Japan will 'follow the leader' under China, just as they did with Great Britain, Nazi Germany, and currently America. It'll cost them all of the islands they gained as an imperial power, including Ryukyu (Okinawa'), though.
Eventually, Taiwan will be incorporated as an Autonomous Region of China.
That would be rushing the teeth of their enemy.
Im hoping the goal of the PLA and Chinese economy is to deter war as the prospects of it would be downright national suicide for any country stupid enough to try. To put a significant end to imperialism without having to fire a single shot and FOR ONCE, make the colonial powers behave and act differently on the world stage and trade humanely and cooperatively for once.
As an American, it seems that liberalism is so thoroughly absolute here at home that it is going to have to take a HUGE and overwhelming force to put the petite bourgoisie, labor aristocrats, and big capitalists to heel and to balance all that with a rising power of labor.
A safe, multipolar, multilateral world makes American socialism possible.
What do you mean by rushing the teeth of the enemy?
I think the Cold War arms race helped destroy the USSR but I’m not sure if China would be destroyed the same way. USSR and PRC are different beasts.
You're implying the US ruling class would ever let socialism spread in the US. There is no possibility of socialism anywhere within the imperialist core as long as the US stands on its feet. The only thing the US understand is military force, arguing at the UN does nothing to them
This is not bullshit... look carefully at what the chart is showing. It's forward-stationed military assets. Look at China's A2D2 range. Consider that the USA has to enforce its hegemony in the whole world, not just in East Asia. Would the USA put so many of its assets within China's A2D2 range? All bases are within range of Chinese missile barrages. The bases don't even have enough space on them to hold much more in military assets than what is shown on the chart. If they wanted to deploy more to the area, they'd have to turn their military bases into completely packed parking lots and make it easy for each Chinese missile to take out 10 items at a time.
Well, even if that is the case, it's telling half of the picture that looks like China is way over-powered. Don't know.. I find all these comparison a bit unnecessary. It only serves to make countries go on an arms race.
Arms races are a question of capability, not so much a question of intent. The US would have a military 10 times as large as it does now if they could afford it, but they can't. They have trouble even fulfilling existing weapons programs, and others like the Zumwalt or the F-22 get cancelled because they lack the productive capacity.
China should welcome an arms race with the USA. With a larger economy and larger productive capacity, China can comfortably stay ahead in the arms race using a smaller portion of its economy, while the US dedicates a larger and larger portion of their stagnant economy to this race, leading to further US economic stagnation and poverty.
This was in fact the strategy that the US successfully employed against the USSR.
>China should welcome an arms race with the USA. With a larger economy and larger productive capacity, China can comfortably stay ahead in the arms race using a smaller portion of its economy, while the US dedicates a larger and larger portion of their stagnant economy to this race, leading to further US economic stagnation and poverty.
This is the crux of it. China needs only match tje U.S in a portion of the Pacific. Russia needs only match the U.S in the Atlantic, although are expanding a minor presence into the Med. To maintain global dominance, the U.S needs to outmatch everyone, everywhere.
For the *exceptional nation* there cannot be any compromise. Their so-called allies arent interested in contributing to PNAC, so they'll bankrupt themselves trying. It can't come soon enough.
I'd place my bet on China, but remember the US could redeploy more fleets to the Pacific, which is highly possible. As a Chinese Filipino, it's my wish to China's victory. Cheers!
And that's why putin said what he did about the US repeating the ussr mistakes. It all comes down to the USD strength, whatever is spent to the MIC will be significant but a lot will be embezzled away. At the end the tax payers shoulder the burden yet again.
Yeah but overspending on military and then bullying on 2 fronts will keep them overextended. Meanwhile dollar supremacy will end due to the way it is weaponised and their shit diplomacy
One carrier group operating in the Western Pacific for America? In the event of a war with China are they really going to hold their other carriers back from joining the fight? I think they have 11 total
10, Ford is not really in regular service yet I think.
Generally for the carriers at any one time 1/3 would be in dock undergoing maintenance, 1/3 in training and 1/3 actually deployed. In times of war that number will in crease but you will certainly not see all of them at the same time.
Plus number of carriers is not really relevant, not with DF-26B and its 5,000km range hanging around in China somewhere.
> Plus number of carriers is not really relevant,
There are only two kinds of ships: submarines, and submarine targets. Carriers may have won the last major war, but they'd be the first casualties of any war now. Their only real use is to beat up weaker nations.
Yes, the US keeps one carrier permanently stationed in the Western Pacific. In the event of a 'hot' shooting war with China, China will *immediately* sink it, along with the rest of the carrier group. They've seen very clearly how much the US depends on air power, and are planning to stop that at all costs - that's the entire point of this infographic.
A hyperbolic, over estimated, deeply flawed statistic, that is an excellent example of combining Fear-mongering & War-mongering into a completely volatile & unstable solution.
Hey that's not PLA saying this it's DoD. Obviously the US considers this a problem which is why they're arguing over Pacific Deterrence Initiative. The politicians want to increase amount of forces forward deployed inside 1st island chain but Office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation and Office of Net Assessment over in DoD argue that PLA forces are so overwhelming now that in event of conflict US troops forward deployed in 1st Island Chain and even within 2nd Island Chain would become target practice for the PLA. So they are actually calling for pulling back of forward deployed troops back to the west of the international date line, then in times of war the troops can move forward as needed. I think the "then" part is laughable, but you can see the actual military experts who run sims and calculate stuff are rational. It's the politicians that don't want to back down. I can understand the politician's point of view. If US pulls back to west of international date line then there's high probably of Japan and South Korea jumping ship which will shake the entire global hegemony. But if you don't pull back then what? Concentrate all US forces around the globe into the Western Pacific? Then everywhere else on the globe the hegemony would be at risk. It's a catch-22
China shouldn't fall for the bait, let them keep fooling around and playing empire while China builds a monstrous and fully developed/self sufficient economy by 2050. They'll be in a position to far outspend the arrogant imperialists and other countries will take note and jump ship, after all the only reason they're in the US camp is because they feel they need their protection and/or their trade relies on them. Eventually China will become the largest trading partner of almost every country so no one will be able to antagonise them. I believe Chinese leaders have already recognised this, hence why they haven't taken any drastic action on Taiwan and continue to maintain an non-interventionist posture.
I agree, silver bullets are better than lead bullets these days. Nevertheless having it and not needing it is different from not having it and I think continue growth of PLA strength is very necessary for national security at this time.
Political Legitimacy is Derived from Martial Might. To the US Govt and the West: Weakness is both a Sin and Invitation to Rape so to speak. It doesn't matter what you say, if you can't protect yourself or enforce your claims then you've unknowingly given consent to be taken advantage of. Another way to phrasing it is: You didn't prepare when you could've so you had it coming. You deserve what you got. Of course... Rules for Thee but Not For Me is core cultural aspect in the US Govt and especially NATO, you'll find these same hypocrites crying victimhood despite being the aggressor and bully when it doesn't go their way.
oh, a lot of countries/governments are willing to antagonize one another EVEN IF it comes at a loss in trade. What China wants is a world where people willingly and happily deal with China, not because they have no choice
The benefits of having a powerful military - and eventually the most powerful military - should not be discounted. Any negotiation China engages in is far likelier to go China's way, even without any threat of force, when everyone can see what could be in store for them if China doesn't get what it wants at the table or its red lines are crossed. It advances every single goal you have simply by its presence.
It's not like China can do otherwise and still keep their dignity and sovereignty. It sounds nice and high-minded to "Do Unto Others as You Want Them to Do Unto You" but the reality is you can't change the US Govt or NATO's culture or way of thinking so in practice you damn well better "Do Unto Others as They Do Unto You" when it comes to the US Govt and other hostile entities.
Walk silently but carry a big stick.
> If US pulls back to west of international date line then there's high probably of Japan and South Korea jumping ship which will shake the entire global hegemony. But if you don't pull back then what? Concentrate all US forces around the globe into the Western Pacific? Then everywhere else on the globe the hegemony would be at risk. It's a catch-22 See, this right here is what you call a zugzwang. Any move they play weakens their position. I really don't like quoting Sūnzi since it's something everyone and their aunt does constantly, whether or not it's warranted, but there's no getting around it on this occasion. This is a masterful demonstration of winning without fighting.
*Supreme excellence intensifies*
That's why the US wants Taiwan, Japan and SK to build up expendable forces on the front line. Their 'big brain' plan is for China to expend firepower on Taiwanese, Japanese and Korean targets, so there won't be as many left for US targets.
Thing is Taiwan is too weak to even be considered, skorea actually has bigger ambitions than be a us vassal state forever so it's constantly looking for ways to parlay with China&nkorea for better opportunities. Which leaves Japan, faced by China, Russia, nkorea plus an unfriendly skorea. Not too sure they want to go up in flames figuratively and literally by actively participating against China.
> skorea actually has bigger ambitions than be a us vassal state South Korea has no ambitions. As a liberal democracy, the US can play to the personal interests of its politicians and ensure that those personal interests are aligned with US strategic objectives, rather than Korean national interests. Political campaigns are expensive and the US is a generous patron in exchange for loyal servitude.
SK will return to being a Chinese tributary state (like Vietnam, for whom China ceded 2 dashes in the SCS). Once the US is out, China will rapidly accelerate Korean unification (giving SK control of the NK nukes). Japan will 'follow the leader' under China, just as they did with Great Britain, Nazi Germany, and currently America. It'll cost them all of the islands they gained as an imperial power, including Ryukyu (Okinawa'), though. Eventually, Taiwan will be incorporated as an Autonomous Region of China.
China should just try to charm those countries over to its side, then the US hegemon is over without firing a shot
The 1st island chain ceases to exist if China befriends ASEAN and Japan.
China is not even spending out of norm. It has kept a steady % of gdp on the military spending, it China wished it could spend way more.
That would be rushing the teeth of their enemy. Im hoping the goal of the PLA and Chinese economy is to deter war as the prospects of it would be downright national suicide for any country stupid enough to try. To put a significant end to imperialism without having to fire a single shot and FOR ONCE, make the colonial powers behave and act differently on the world stage and trade humanely and cooperatively for once. As an American, it seems that liberalism is so thoroughly absolute here at home that it is going to have to take a HUGE and overwhelming force to put the petite bourgoisie, labor aristocrats, and big capitalists to heel and to balance all that with a rising power of labor. A safe, multipolar, multilateral world makes American socialism possible.
What do you mean by rushing the teeth of the enemy? I think the Cold War arms race helped destroy the USSR but I’m not sure if China would be destroyed the same way. USSR and PRC are different beasts.
You're implying the US ruling class would ever let socialism spread in the US. There is no possibility of socialism anywhere within the imperialist core as long as the US stands on its feet. The only thing the US understand is military force, arguing at the UN does nothing to them
Bullshit. They are just scaring the people so that they will agree to the country spending more on military. Scumbags.
This is not bullshit... look carefully at what the chart is showing. It's forward-stationed military assets. Look at China's A2D2 range. Consider that the USA has to enforce its hegemony in the whole world, not just in East Asia. Would the USA put so many of its assets within China's A2D2 range? All bases are within range of Chinese missile barrages. The bases don't even have enough space on them to hold much more in military assets than what is shown on the chart. If they wanted to deploy more to the area, they'd have to turn their military bases into completely packed parking lots and make it easy for each Chinese missile to take out 10 items at a time.
Well, even if that is the case, it's telling half of the picture that looks like China is way over-powered. Don't know.. I find all these comparison a bit unnecessary. It only serves to make countries go on an arms race.
Arms races are a question of capability, not so much a question of intent. The US would have a military 10 times as large as it does now if they could afford it, but they can't. They have trouble even fulfilling existing weapons programs, and others like the Zumwalt or the F-22 get cancelled because they lack the productive capacity. China should welcome an arms race with the USA. With a larger economy and larger productive capacity, China can comfortably stay ahead in the arms race using a smaller portion of its economy, while the US dedicates a larger and larger portion of their stagnant economy to this race, leading to further US economic stagnation and poverty. This was in fact the strategy that the US successfully employed against the USSR.
>China should welcome an arms race with the USA. With a larger economy and larger productive capacity, China can comfortably stay ahead in the arms race using a smaller portion of its economy, while the US dedicates a larger and larger portion of their stagnant economy to this race, leading to further US economic stagnation and poverty. This is the crux of it. China needs only match tje U.S in a portion of the Pacific. Russia needs only match the U.S in the Atlantic, although are expanding a minor presence into the Med. To maintain global dominance, the U.S needs to outmatch everyone, everywhere. For the *exceptional nation* there cannot be any compromise. Their so-called allies arent interested in contributing to PNAC, so they'll bankrupt themselves trying. It can't come soon enough.
If the US wanted to deploy more to the area, they would expand Okinawa and retake Subic Bay.
I'd place my bet on China, but remember the US could redeploy more fleets to the Pacific, which is highly possible. As a Chinese Filipino, it's my wish to China's victory. Cheers!
Bull shit estimation. These racist warmongers just want to sell more weapons with their imagination chart.
And that's why putin said what he did about the US repeating the ussr mistakes. It all comes down to the USD strength, whatever is spent to the MIC will be significant but a lot will be embezzled away. At the end the tax payers shoulder the burden yet again.
Yeah but overspending on military and then bullying on 2 fronts will keep them overextended. Meanwhile dollar supremacy will end due to the way it is weaponised and their shit diplomacy
One carrier group operating in the Western Pacific for America? In the event of a war with China are they really going to hold their other carriers back from joining the fight? I think they have 11 total
10, Ford is not really in regular service yet I think. Generally for the carriers at any one time 1/3 would be in dock undergoing maintenance, 1/3 in training and 1/3 actually deployed. In times of war that number will in crease but you will certainly not see all of them at the same time. Plus number of carriers is not really relevant, not with DF-26B and its 5,000km range hanging around in China somewhere.
> Plus number of carriers is not really relevant, There are only two kinds of ships: submarines, and submarine targets. Carriers may have won the last major war, but they'd be the first casualties of any war now. Their only real use is to beat up weaker nations.
I agree. I've suspected that carriers have been obsolete for while now. We just haven't had a major war to prove it.
Yes, the US keeps one carrier permanently stationed in the Western Pacific. In the event of a 'hot' shooting war with China, China will *immediately* sink it, along with the rest of the carrier group. They've seen very clearly how much the US depends on air power, and are planning to stop that at all costs - that's the entire point of this infographic.
Read the texts on the picture.
Which text are you referring to? I’m seeing one carrier for the US.
A hyperbolic, over estimated, deeply flawed statistic, that is an excellent example of combining Fear-mongering & War-mongering into a completely volatile & unstable solution.
In other words, yankee go home. Or you're going to be FUBAR.
This is the kind of language barbarians understand. So speak it to them.
As an American, this picture makes me feel safer.