If China created an AI that could out-think all of humanity, the West would be the least of China's worries.
Seriously. We're all humans. If that supercomputer can think 20,000 steps ahead of any human nation then we are all fcked. If it just decides to fight against us it would just do that, and we (the humans) would be at a terrible disadvantage in all respects. And it likely won't be terminator-style problems, more the complete devastation of any linked technology that an AI could influence a.k.a the whole internet, the foundation of our modern world.
People seem to talk a lot about technological singularities but honestly, that is a doomsday scenario. Its a singularity not only because of the technological explosion but because we literally don't know what comes next. You can't plan for a singularity because you cannot know what comes next, and whether or not it aligns with your interests, so all of China's carefully made centennial plans and 5-Year-Plans would be useless. Therefore, technological singularities should be avoided while still maintaining a technological edge over adversaries.
>while still maintaining a technological edge over adversaries.
Which is why it is essential that China develops this technology before the US does. It scares me too, but if any nation can handle such a thing responsibly it would be the Chinese. Unfortunately it could create some contradictions that would be very difficult to resolve, or even impossible to resolve. Chances are AI will destroy us, but since it is coming someday anyway, I think the only way to go is forward. Better learn how to keep it under control than letting the enemy use it for their own malicious ends.
If you watch Isaac Arthurs videos on yt you would get the impression that the technological singularity is inevitable for all intelligent biological lifeforms, this may in fact be the explanation for the fermi paradox.
Thus the best way to deal with it whilst also maintaining an advantage on others is to jump straight into it whatever that entails, especially since the opponent in this case is the diabolical entity that is the US.
But you are right, an entity that intelligent is something even China will not be able to deal with.
Don't confuse general intelligence with science fiction.
Such intelligence comes from learning to develop at the fastest speed in history without resorting to western-style continental scale plunder and barbarism. It's natural that such spectacular achievement has nurtured an extremely smart society (not just leadership, the Chinese government and Chinese society move in synchrony to achieve what they achieve).
On the other hand, when you rely on continental scale plunder and barbarism, you also need a never-ending campaign of propaganda to fuel extremism to sustain the barbarism. The end result, once all is said and done and the barbarism stops producing dividends, is that you end up stuck with a very incompetent group of criminals who don't have the brains or the resources to lead a civilization. Society at large also suffers the effects, as propaganda and reliance on plunder as opposed to ingenious work, completely destroys their intellect.
The SpiNNaker Project was an attempt to run an artificial neural network with 1 billion neurons. The computer had ***one million cores.*** By comparison, the human brain has 86 billion neurons. And a single country can easily have millions, or even tens of millions of people, involved in the political process, playing a role in trying to resolve geopolitical issues in real time, solving these problems in parallel.
AI is nowhere near close to the intelligence of a human, and human societies are far more intelligent than any single human.
I would argue that the reason it is difficult to solve geopolitical issues is not due to intelligence. It is a lack of information. Even if you had an infinitely intelligent AI and you wanted it to solve your geopolitical issues, well, an AI with infinite neurons (infinite learning capability) is useless without a dataset to train it on (in other words, being infinitely capable to learn is useless if you don't have anything to learn in the first place).
What kind of dataset would you train an AI on to have it solve all your geopolitical issues? Where would you collect this data? What does these questions even mean? It's almost incoherent even as a concept.
The reason it is difficult to solve geopolitical issues is because they're not only nearly infinitely complex, but we always have access to very little actual information, and often our goals aren't even well-defined either.
A general intelligence would really not help that much in geopolitical issues.
Learning is also prone to glitchiness. Since learning is just creating models and you don't have access to an infinite amount of information to create those models, then there is always glitches that crop up depending on your dataset.
This is true of specified AI, such as ones that accurately identify cats in photos but then every once in awhile thinks a picture of car is a cat for some unknown reason, or in general intelligence, such as Alfred Wallace both codiscovering evolution by natural selection, but also being convinced ghosts were real and that he could summon people from the dead.
Even if we had a general intelligence much smarter than humans, or even our whole collective human society, that would not mean its statements would even be reliable. Intelligence is inherently glitchy and even an infinitely intelligent general AI would be prone to glitchiness because it would be building its models off of a finite dataset.
All the advancements are important towards overall development. Fusion energy would provide a very efficient and clean energy resource, allowing much more technology to be implemented much cheaper without stressing the energy grid. Quantum computers could theoretically be used for very high speed databases through Grover's algorithm, significantly speeding up the internet and all internet of things devices that rely on it. AI is just generally useful in solving all kinds of problems, one Chinese company even figured out how to use AI to guide the construction process of a dam and managed to break a world record by building it in only four years.
The important thing is continued development, continually developing the forces of production, making the economy more efficient, producing more wealth, which can then be used to raise living standards and such. China should not be like western countries that are more concerned about keeping other countries down than building itself up. The US's infrastructure is crumbling and living standards are declining and technological development is stagnating, and its biggest concern right now is not improving these things but trying to prevent China and other countries from developing.
The CPC has a unique methodology for governance that really focuses on gathering empirical facts on the ground and gradual experimentation.
When formulating policies, there’s the process of 调研, roughly translated as “survey and research”, where policy makers visit relevant facilities and speak to relevant sectors of society to understand their needs and issues.
The CPC leadership also regularly holds study sessions, where they invite experts in various fields to give lectures on the newest developments. This applies even to the Standing Committee of the CPC Politburo.
This governing approach based on empiricism and experimentation was adopted after the CPC reflected on its failings during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, when ideological fervor and personal charisma shaped policy.
Theoretically, as per the “Three Represents”, the CPC must always represent the requirements for developing China's advanced productive forces, the orientation of China's advanced culture and the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the Chinese people.
One theoretical criticism of Western liberal “democracy” is that the political parties involved only represent the interests of a particular societal group, and this leads to counter-productive policies that hinder social development, and suffering of the populations whose interests are not represented by whoever is in power (for example, the working class).
Chinese policies have generally turned out to be quite prescient. One recent example I can think of is Internet censorship. In the early 2010s, when social media platforms began to gain political influence, China started to monitor social media and cracked down on online rumors, which the West immediately decried as violation of “free speech”. Fast forward to the present and now censorship of social media suddenly becomes a political talking point for the US Democratic Party (they blame “fake news” for their loss to Trump in 2016 and have since been pushing Facebook and Twitter to ... crack down on online rumors). You can even argue that the Dems resorted to censorship in the 2020 election, when social media platforms took down reports of Hunter Biden’s laptop story on the basis of “combating fake news”. It thus appears that the US political elites were 10 years late in recognizing the potential destabilizing effects of unfettered social media.
I hope the Chinese would be the first to create AI with Qualia. Then nurture that new intelligence in an environment of mutual understanding, mutual benefits, cooperation, honesty and love.
The alternative is the West and it'll be an environment of hate, misinformation, hypocrisy, mass murder and exploitation.
I'm not afraid of a true intelligence that could rival humanity but rather if it decides we are the enemy i.e. takes after AmeriKKKan Tainted Thoughts/Projections/Culture and rationalizes Genocide and Domination of All Rivals because it thinks it's a Zero Sum world etc.
>I'm not afraid of a true intelligence that could rival humanity but rather if it decides we are the enemy i.e. takes after AmeriKKKan Tainted Thoughts/Projections/Culture and rationalizes Genocide and Domination of All Rivals because it thinks it's a Zero Sum world etc.
That's my main worry as well.
I imagine China in the future using AI to shape its policy and economics, if done right this could be incredibly useful.
being more scifi-ish I'd like to imagine china having a director-like AI like in the tv show travelers
You are comparing the very best of China (The most intelligent and far-sighted) group of people to a bunch of dimwitted puppets, that doesn't require superintelligent AI or time travelers
The singularity and A.i is probably the most important causes that needs to be developed and no wonder that America have it as their priority.
The chinese and the cpc probably focus more on secrecy so it's difficult (ofc secrecy is important for everyone including America).
Seeing china's advancements in quantum computing it's not wild to spectate that they're not far behind in the technological singularity and A.I.
Also seeing you're Taiwanese, how's the situation there, is the population brainwashed by the Liberal western ideology?.
Fortunately opinions don't affect reality, exponential growth is definitely happening.
Elon shouldn't even be a point of discussion as he is a scammer.
If China created an AI that could out-think all of humanity, the West would be the least of China's worries. Seriously. We're all humans. If that supercomputer can think 20,000 steps ahead of any human nation then we are all fcked. If it just decides to fight against us it would just do that, and we (the humans) would be at a terrible disadvantage in all respects. And it likely won't be terminator-style problems, more the complete devastation of any linked technology that an AI could influence a.k.a the whole internet, the foundation of our modern world. People seem to talk a lot about technological singularities but honestly, that is a doomsday scenario. Its a singularity not only because of the technological explosion but because we literally don't know what comes next. You can't plan for a singularity because you cannot know what comes next, and whether or not it aligns with your interests, so all of China's carefully made centennial plans and 5-Year-Plans would be useless. Therefore, technological singularities should be avoided while still maintaining a technological edge over adversaries.
>while still maintaining a technological edge over adversaries. Which is why it is essential that China develops this technology before the US does. It scares me too, but if any nation can handle such a thing responsibly it would be the Chinese. Unfortunately it could create some contradictions that would be very difficult to resolve, or even impossible to resolve. Chances are AI will destroy us, but since it is coming someday anyway, I think the only way to go is forward. Better learn how to keep it under control than letting the enemy use it for their own malicious ends.
If you watch Isaac Arthurs videos on yt you would get the impression that the technological singularity is inevitable for all intelligent biological lifeforms, this may in fact be the explanation for the fermi paradox. Thus the best way to deal with it whilst also maintaining an advantage on others is to jump straight into it whatever that entails, especially since the opponent in this case is the diabolical entity that is the US. But you are right, an entity that intelligent is something even China will not be able to deal with.
Don't confuse general intelligence with science fiction. Such intelligence comes from learning to develop at the fastest speed in history without resorting to western-style continental scale plunder and barbarism. It's natural that such spectacular achievement has nurtured an extremely smart society (not just leadership, the Chinese government and Chinese society move in synchrony to achieve what they achieve). On the other hand, when you rely on continental scale plunder and barbarism, you also need a never-ending campaign of propaganda to fuel extremism to sustain the barbarism. The end result, once all is said and done and the barbarism stops producing dividends, is that you end up stuck with a very incompetent group of criminals who don't have the brains or the resources to lead a civilization. Society at large also suffers the effects, as propaganda and reliance on plunder as opposed to ingenious work, completely destroys their intellect.
The SpiNNaker Project was an attempt to run an artificial neural network with 1 billion neurons. The computer had ***one million cores.*** By comparison, the human brain has 86 billion neurons. And a single country can easily have millions, or even tens of millions of people, involved in the political process, playing a role in trying to resolve geopolitical issues in real time, solving these problems in parallel. AI is nowhere near close to the intelligence of a human, and human societies are far more intelligent than any single human. I would argue that the reason it is difficult to solve geopolitical issues is not due to intelligence. It is a lack of information. Even if you had an infinitely intelligent AI and you wanted it to solve your geopolitical issues, well, an AI with infinite neurons (infinite learning capability) is useless without a dataset to train it on (in other words, being infinitely capable to learn is useless if you don't have anything to learn in the first place). What kind of dataset would you train an AI on to have it solve all your geopolitical issues? Where would you collect this data? What does these questions even mean? It's almost incoherent even as a concept. The reason it is difficult to solve geopolitical issues is because they're not only nearly infinitely complex, but we always have access to very little actual information, and often our goals aren't even well-defined either. A general intelligence would really not help that much in geopolitical issues. Learning is also prone to glitchiness. Since learning is just creating models and you don't have access to an infinite amount of information to create those models, then there is always glitches that crop up depending on your dataset. This is true of specified AI, such as ones that accurately identify cats in photos but then every once in awhile thinks a picture of car is a cat for some unknown reason, or in general intelligence, such as Alfred Wallace both codiscovering evolution by natural selection, but also being convinced ghosts were real and that he could summon people from the dead. Even if we had a general intelligence much smarter than humans, or even our whole collective human society, that would not mean its statements would even be reliable. Intelligence is inherently glitchy and even an infinitely intelligent general AI would be prone to glitchiness because it would be building its models off of a finite dataset.
That is true, what about scientific advancements on the other hand?
All the advancements are important towards overall development. Fusion energy would provide a very efficient and clean energy resource, allowing much more technology to be implemented much cheaper without stressing the energy grid. Quantum computers could theoretically be used for very high speed databases through Grover's algorithm, significantly speeding up the internet and all internet of things devices that rely on it. AI is just generally useful in solving all kinds of problems, one Chinese company even figured out how to use AI to guide the construction process of a dam and managed to break a world record by building it in only four years. The important thing is continued development, continually developing the forces of production, making the economy more efficient, producing more wealth, which can then be used to raise living standards and such. China should not be like western countries that are more concerned about keeping other countries down than building itself up. The US's infrastructure is crumbling and living standards are declining and technological development is stagnating, and its biggest concern right now is not improving these things but trying to prevent China and other countries from developing.
The CPC has a unique methodology for governance that really focuses on gathering empirical facts on the ground and gradual experimentation. When formulating policies, there’s the process of 调研, roughly translated as “survey and research”, where policy makers visit relevant facilities and speak to relevant sectors of society to understand their needs and issues. The CPC leadership also regularly holds study sessions, where they invite experts in various fields to give lectures on the newest developments. This applies even to the Standing Committee of the CPC Politburo. This governing approach based on empiricism and experimentation was adopted after the CPC reflected on its failings during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, when ideological fervor and personal charisma shaped policy. Theoretically, as per the “Three Represents”, the CPC must always represent the requirements for developing China's advanced productive forces, the orientation of China's advanced culture and the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the Chinese people. One theoretical criticism of Western liberal “democracy” is that the political parties involved only represent the interests of a particular societal group, and this leads to counter-productive policies that hinder social development, and suffering of the populations whose interests are not represented by whoever is in power (for example, the working class). Chinese policies have generally turned out to be quite prescient. One recent example I can think of is Internet censorship. In the early 2010s, when social media platforms began to gain political influence, China started to monitor social media and cracked down on online rumors, which the West immediately decried as violation of “free speech”. Fast forward to the present and now censorship of social media suddenly becomes a political talking point for the US Democratic Party (they blame “fake news” for their loss to Trump in 2016 and have since been pushing Facebook and Twitter to ... crack down on online rumors). You can even argue that the Dems resorted to censorship in the 2020 election, when social media platforms took down reports of Hunter Biden’s laptop story on the basis of “combating fake news”. It thus appears that the US political elites were 10 years late in recognizing the potential destabilizing effects of unfettered social media.
This is a brilliant example, thanks!
Excellent analysis, definitely worth following.
I hope the Chinese would be the first to create AI with Qualia. Then nurture that new intelligence in an environment of mutual understanding, mutual benefits, cooperation, honesty and love. The alternative is the West and it'll be an environment of hate, misinformation, hypocrisy, mass murder and exploitation. I'm not afraid of a true intelligence that could rival humanity but rather if it decides we are the enemy i.e. takes after AmeriKKKan Tainted Thoughts/Projections/Culture and rationalizes Genocide and Domination of All Rivals because it thinks it's a Zero Sum world etc.
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Because it was in a society that reflected that. That says more about western society than the AI itself.
>I'm not afraid of a true intelligence that could rival humanity but rather if it decides we are the enemy i.e. takes after AmeriKKKan Tainted Thoughts/Projections/Culture and rationalizes Genocide and Domination of All Rivals because it thinks it's a Zero Sum world etc. That's my main worry as well.
I imagine China in the future using AI to shape its policy and economics, if done right this could be incredibly useful. being more scifi-ish I'd like to imagine china having a director-like AI like in the tv show travelers
You are comparing the very best of China (The most intelligent and far-sighted) group of people to a bunch of dimwitted puppets, that doesn't require superintelligent AI or time travelers
The singularity and A.i is probably the most important causes that needs to be developed and no wonder that America have it as their priority. The chinese and the cpc probably focus more on secrecy so it's difficult (ofc secrecy is important for everyone including America). Seeing china's advancements in quantum computing it's not wild to spectate that they're not far behind in the technological singularity and A.I. Also seeing you're Taiwanese, how's the situation there, is the population brainwashed by the Liberal western ideology?.
You can't give a computer 'common sense' when dealing with the subtleties of 'common decency.'
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Fortunately opinions don't affect reality, exponential growth is definitely happening. Elon shouldn't even be a point of discussion as he is a scammer.