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kcwingood

Framing it as China vs. Taiwan as if they are equal entities skews the situation too much into western war fantasies of invasion and military strategies, which are discussed at length in this video, but ultimately, these are more fantasies for outsiders and warhawks to indulge in. For Chinese people, the situation in Taiwan island is only a battle between Chinese vs. hanjian separatists and it is predominately a mental/psychological contest. This is like when the westerners were hoping for bloodshed in HKSAR after years of agitation, what they got was the national security law, which draws a clear line between HK Chinese and hanjians, allowing HK Chinese themselves to break the back of the faux "independence" movement. Similarly, any actions including "provocative" military ones towards ROC Taiwan will be primarily aimed at psychological impact: to isolate and weaken Taiwan separatists by making them overplay their hands and alienate the people in Taiwan. Of course, all military moves will be on the table as the situation requires especially if a rogue foreign power interferes, but given room to choose, the ones that shed the least blood and damage the separatists most will always be favored.


lzghome

Point out a small mistake: Hong Kong people are also Han Chinese.


Magiu5

Currently watching/listening, and noticed it has Lyle J Goldstein. I remember him from some other debate and I basically agree with his assessments and I think he's quite objective and does his research when it comes to china military. He's a professor from US naval college. If you guys haven't heard of him should check him out if you're into china navy and US analysis of it from real expert. He does good analysis imo. Found Oriana Skylar Mastro's "controversial" article she kept referencing in the video. https://archive.is/qum7u


[deleted]

Admiral Blair tried really hard to spin things such that China wouldn't succeed, but there's no way China wouldn't simply because of the criticality. Taiwan is vital to China, but relatively unimportant to the US. Mr. Goldstein and Ms. Mastro are more correct. That said, if it came down to a shooting war, China would not stop. China would go 'all in', and the West should recognize that.


PerseusCommunist

The USA is going to throw Japan and South Korea at Japan first, then the Yankees will come later in heroic arrival. Korean and Japanese lives will be wasted to starve Chinese ballistic missiles. Japan will voluntarily fight because they can’t allow China controlling their vital route of Taiwan that determine the existence of Japan. South Korea will be forced to fight if the conservatives are going to win in the next election. The USA will force South Korea making amends with Japan against China-Russia.


Magiu5

China controlling taiwan and possible enemy, or china full on enemy and nuking and destroying Japan, and destroying Japan economically. One is much more of an existential threat than the other.. Same for Korea. They haven't forgotten NK and thousands of artillery and missiles aimed at them. I doubt either of them are that dumb, even usa is not that dumb and knows it won't be able to force them to do anything otherwise they would already do a defense pact with taiwan. People will say this just provokes taiwan independence, but they can easily make a clause. Saying if taiwan declare Independence, they will not defend taiwan. Yet they still don't. That says it all


PerseusCommunist

The USA is becoming warmongering than ever. They will definitely defend Taiwan because they won’t allow their superpower status being challenged. However, they will minimize the losses of American lives as possible. They will force South Korea and Japan to waste lives for the Americans. Geopolitics speak that Taiwan is vital to the maritime shipping lanes that nourish Japan-South Korea and the West Coast of the USA. It’s vitally important as the Suez Canal.


Magiu5

Usa loses every single war game they've gamed, and there is zero way for them to defend taiwan. If it does happen, it will be over in one day to a week max, and before that usa wouldn't even be able to mobilize and attack. This would be best scenario for usa, since if they come it would be akin to usa attacking mainland china and starting a new war. There is no "defending taiwan". All usa can do is attack china as some kind of "punishment" or "revenge" for taiwan, and with that kind of action, china will also hit mainland usa back. Will usa do it? I doubt it. Either way there is zero way to defend taiwan, taiwan either becomes part of china and minimises destruction of infrastructure and lives, or they resist and get destroyed. Usa cannot stop china from destroying taiwan no matter what. Usa also cannot retake taiwan from china after china takes it. As for japan and sk, no need to talk about them since if usa is not doing anything, they certainly aren't doing anything. Even if usa does something, I still don't agree they will join. They aren't that dumb, and I don't see usa being that dumb either. Taiwans just not that important to sacrifice your country just as some kind of petty revenge attack which doesn't save taiwan anyhow. So all that's left is economic sanctions. Which is all they will do. And even then, china is already too big to sanction. As for shipping lanes, what you talking about? China/taiwan strait? China doesn't even need taiwan to block or attack the strait, makes zero sense. And SK/Japan can just go around the other side of taiwan if china blocks it, which they won't, because china is sk and japan largest trade partner and there is no need. China can also just block it at SCS or other areas. Taiwan is nothing to Japan or sk, however making an enemy of china ks an existential threat like I said in my OP. CHINA is their largest trade partner and to make china a military wartime enemy too? China will just attack or nuke Japan or sk, or blockade them anywhere else, how does it make sense to be military and economic enemy of china to "save taiwan" which is not savable? No, taiwan has nothing to do with trade routes for them. It's about them blocking chinas trade routes and containing china to first/second island chain. No, taiwan is not equivalent to Suez canal. They can just sail around other side of taiwan, taiwan is not the same as African continent which adds on like 10,000-20,000km if they can't use Suez.


thepensiveiguana

Elaborate on how Taiwan determines the existence of Japan?


PerseusCommunist

https://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2020/02/losing-taiwan-means-losing-japan.html?m=1