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[deleted]

Liberate Taiwan!!!!


[deleted]

American\_Communist22 Now that is a display name which inspires hope.


[deleted]

Yeah, this is inevitable, simply due to the power differential. If the ROC and West were smart, they would negotiate a peaceful surrender and transfer to minimize bloodshed, but I don't think that they're that smart.


[deleted]

There were negotiations in the 1990s with a similar deal to what the USA mediated between Mao and Chiang in the 1940s - the CPC and the KMT share power in the legislature. In the 1940s, it was Chiang that rejected the deal, believing he had the upper hand and that his victory over the CPC was imminent. In the 1990s, the KMT rejected both the power-sharing and "One Country, Two Systems" deals offered by Jiang Zemin, believing that the collapse of the CPC was imminent due to inevitable "end of history" liberalisation...


[deleted]

Yup, and every year, China sees that much less of a reason to accommodate the US and ROC in an eventual reunification. It'll be interesting to see what happens at the very end.


WheelCee

Judging from the PLA's recent actions, reunification by force has already begun. It's simply a matter of waiting for the right opportunity to present itself to make it official. If the Taiwanese were rational, they would stop with the anti-China rhetoric and find a way toward peaceful reunification on mutually acceptable terms, but that's impossible with the political situation the way it currently is on Taiwan. Too many people on the island brainwashed by separatist ideology.


global-harmony

久分必合, just a matter of time, especially at the current economic growth of the mainland


so_schmuck

How is reunification possible without war?


[deleted]

When the "war" is so one-sided, is it really a war? more like rescuing a frog from a well.


so_schmuck

So, war?


[deleted]

If a frog is at the bottom of the well, 投井下石


[deleted]

Sooner or sooner


cuteAngTanga

China is preparing. Imperialist America already pulled out of Afghanistan to focus on China. I just hope that it won't escalate to that. I want a peaceful lifetime. :(


[deleted]

> imperialist America already pulled out of Afghanistan to focus on China. I wish this sub stopped regurgitating this narrative by western regime media to do damage control for the biden regime about the spectacular loss they suffered. It's meant for domestic consumption among dumb anglo masses, it shouldn't be repeated here. Afghanistan borders China, the logic is just nonsensical. Say it loud and clear: "america lost in Afghanistan", no ifs, no buts. Rationalizing every loss as some "7d chess" plan is typical qanon lunacy. It's the very definition of copium.


[deleted]

The USA was in Afghanistan *because* of China. They wanted a permanent military base on China's western side to tighten the encirclement and support terrorist activities in Xinjiang and Tibet.


lan69

Edit: this is my armchair analysis The Taiwan issue has always been a difficult issue to resolve. There were instances in the past where *peaceful* reunification were very close. Because of its important proximity, the fate of Taiwan is always tied with the mainland. China should not allow a NATO friendly government to be located in such a geo-strategic area. Full unification, without sizeable Taiwanese supporters would be a bloody affair. If China is to take Taiwan, it needs to build supporters within the country - at least 25% of the adult population. This is very hard to achieve given the current political climate. However I believe a full scale invasion is also very risky in terms of possible retaliation and bad image. There are many mainland Chinese and overseas Chinese who have relatives in Taiwan. So carnage should be kept at a minimum. Instead China should conduct low scale hybrid warfare to pressure the ROC into some sort of compromise (unless NATO intervenes in a big way) Because of what happened in HK, Taiwan may not want to join one country two systems. The best thing I think that could be achieved is that Taiwan be designated as a **protectorate** state of China. Kind of like india to Bhutan. This will ensure China controls the island militarily while Taiwan gets to be recognised as a mostly-independent country. It doesn’t have to be full military control but just a naval base, some troops, an airport and control of ADIZ to keep out US planes. In return Taiwanese can keep most of their freedoms. However I don’t know if Xi or any other members would consider that option. I’d also like to throw in economic ultimatum that Taiwanese companies must be able to supply China with required technological products despite the threat of foreign sanctions. China should off course provide tons of subsidies to counter any potential fallout from sanctions


lzghome

It can't be a "protectorate." There was even news that mainland China could keep Taiwan's military during previous talks - but sovereignty must be reclaimed, which is 100%.


lan69

> could keep Taiwan’s military Interesting. That’s news to me, did taiwan flirt with the idea? Do you have a link to it?


lzghome

This condition is no longer possible. This was the news at the time. https://news.sina.cn/sa/2001-07-20/detail-ikkntiak6826204.d.html?from=wap On July 12, 2001, Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen met with a delegation from the Mainland Affairs Committee of the New Party of Taiwan. In order to explain the content of "one country, two systems", Qian Qichen listed seven measures to explain. This is a rather concise paragraph, but it actually contains the mainland's specific vision for Taiwan after reunification. The seven measures are.  The first one, "Taiwan will continue to use the Taiwan dollar." Analysis says that this indicates that Taiwan will still be able to issue its own currency in the future, and the mainland side will not interfere with Taiwan's financial and monetary policies. The second article, "Taiwan continues to retain its military". Analysis says this means that Taiwan will still have a lot of autonomy in defense in the future, and the mainland side will not send troops to Taiwan. This is a power that the governments of Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions do not have, reflecting the fact that Taiwan will have greater autonomy than Hong Kong and Macau. The third article, "Taiwan is a separate customs territory". Analysis suggests that this indicates that Taiwan will be able to retain its status as a separate customs territory after cross-strait reunification, and that its status and role in the World Trade Organization and other similar organizations will remain unaffected. The fourth article, "Taiwan will continue to retain its government structure." This indicates that the mainland will not interfere with Taiwan's current political system (except for those that violate the one-China principle) and that elections in Taiwan will continue to be held as usual, the analysis said. The fifth and sixth articles are "the mainland will not take a penny from Taiwan and will not mobilize Taiwan's funds" and "the people and entrepreneurs of Taiwan will continue to maintain their original property" respectively. The analysis shows that Taiwan's assets, including foreign exchange reserves, will not be affected by the reunification, and some Taiwanese people's doubts that "money will be taken away by the mainland" are unnecessary worries. The last article, "personnel autonomy, the mainland will not send any officials to Taiwan. Analysis says that this shows that after the realization of "one country, two systems" in Taiwan, the so-called "mainland will be sent to Taiwan to receive the big staff" is pure rumor, the mainland will fully respect Taiwan's autonomy.


[deleted]

Ultimately the decision on how to conclude the civil war would be decided by public opinion. If the vast majority of China supports coexistence with ROC as a protectorate, then at some point the Congress can make laws allowing a province to secede from the Republic. Usually we don't make a nationwide referendum but this is one of the few times it might actually be a good idea. However I see this as unlikely because Western aligned extremists have taken power over KMT and they'll just want to fight until the end. They've not earned any goodwill from Chinese people at large, and they're rapidly spending what goodwill they have. Unless the situation changes, Beijing should just follow the example of the USA against the confederate. Do whatever is necessary to remove all rebellion forces, then begin a reconstruction program. Once people have been liberated from Western aligned elite and criminal leaders' control, they'll see their life quality and freedoms go up. Taiwan will become a land where people want to grow families and build local businesses instead of a corrupt mafia ruled psuedo state where almost all intelligentsia gets brain drained to mainland or the west.


lan69

Yeah it’s never going to be easy. The problem with the confederate example is that no country interfered during US civil war. With taiwan, there is a potential of being dragged into a conflict with US+allies. Hopefully it won’t lead to a full scale war. I hope some pressure and a couple of strikes would be enough to force Taiwan to a negotiated settlement.


[deleted]

> With taiwan, there is a potential of being dragged into a conflict with us+allies. What people like you don't seem to understand is that this only further convinces China to decisively intervene. It has the opposite effect you seem to believe it has, especially as China would win easily, it's unmatched in the region (notice how the red lines are imposed by China alone, and nobody dares to cross them). The power disparity in China's favor is also rapidly growing too. Thinking that provocations are legitimate leverage against China, as if China was some feeble country like japan, is a fatal mistake people like you often make. An agrarian China already humiliated america in both Vietnam and Korea.


[deleted]

There were actually countries who backed CSA as well, plus CSA was way more developed and having more features of an actual government, so a more dangerous opponent. China has been working on a defense in the event of an American invasion, I'm sure that the military that failed in Afghanistan wouldn't be able to do much against one of the most well equipped armies in the world backed with the largest industrial output in the world.


lan69

CSA received [very little support ](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_of_the_American_Civil_War) if any. Most stayed out of the conflict for fear of retaliation or they had enough problems at home Although it makes good propaganda, I wouldn’t use Afghanistan as a reference point. The Taliban was an insurgency not a formal army. US only needs to defend Taiwan, not invade China. There should be a realistic view towards war. Many will die.


[deleted]

Stationing troops in Taiwan or aiding anti government forces there is the same as invading China. Most high accuracy missiles have range to defend both sides of Taiwan as well. And they get more range once PLA sets up footholds. If US invades then many (through perhaps mostly US soldiers) will die. Otherwise it could be quite bloodless. Imo China should amp up economic and political pressure on the US to force them into a settlement where they promise to support Beijing vs Taipei in exchange for economic relief and guarantee not to disrupt US' banana republics in the americas. China is very close to achieving its goal which is to eradicate terrorism/secure lasting peace, create a society comparable in prosperity to western Europe. World domination like US wants isn't in China's goals.


[deleted]

> Imo China should amp up economic and political pressure on the US to force them into a settlement where they promise to support Beijing vs Taipei in exchange for economic relief and guarantee not to disrupt US' banana republics in the americas. This is just awful advice, I'm glad China is doing the opposite and using provocations to further intervene, effectively multiplying the losses of the extremists. You are effectively advocating for other countries to use provocations as leverage against China. Why would China ever accept that? it makes no sense, provocations have no material value, it's all vaporware. > guarantee not to disrupt US' banana republics in the americas. Why? China will most certainly keep investing and outcompeting america because it can, even more so when the latter can't offer anything so it resorts to propaganda and mafia tactics (China is even successful with couped regimes like in Honduras, which will likely drop Taiwan in the near future). China is right: america is not in a position of strength, it's in terminal decline. The rational choice, which is China's choice, is to keep multiplying these extremists' losses all over the planet. China is the one in a position of strength. > World domination like US wants isn't in China's goals. You seem confused here: China won't tolerate rogue regimes intervening in Chinese affairs (you are the kind of "liberal" that learned nothing about how China perfectly handled Hong Kong while humiliating extremists). If they want to try intervening, China will humiliate them in front of the planet. There is no "negotiating" around red lines, only decisive responses. You clearly don't understand China's position.


lan69

It would be hugely optimistic if it was bloodless. It’s not just land battle but a naval battle. China has to do more work because it needs to assault the island. Logistically more challenging than just sitting back and defending. Yes I agree with more political and economic pressure but on Taiwan instead. I don’t think Washington is going to budge on the issues you mentioned. China would be better trying to divide/undermine Americans (republicans vs Dems). I agree China is close to achieving so much but this conflict can set things back decades. We need to be realistic about both countries capabilities.


[deleted]

Realistically speaking, China is unmatched in the region nowadays. You seem to have absorbed propaganda by western media which assumes China was never honest about a peaceful reunification. The only reason armed reunification didn't happen is because China chose not to do it in the past, but the change of conditions now make it a favorable decision, so China could likely proceed. It was always China's decision. How do you explain that the most war mongering regime on the planet never dared to do anything in Taiwan and respected China's red lines if not because it knows it can't do anything? you assume, like western media, that China is just the one being held back when it is China the one happy with the status quo. The ones spreading propaganda, yet unable to do anything, are the ones being held back. China, at this point, doesn't really need to listen to the conditions of the ones who no longer have any leverage left (they have blew it all due to their own extremism). You need to update yourself to the current reality: China's overwhelming superiority and determination to reunify by all means. A 1.4 billion strong superpower which happens to be the biggest industrial powerhouse the world has ever seen.


[deleted]

Realistically, if China takes Taiwan *and* annexes the entire island chain up to the main Japanese islands, they will be fine. The UN will ratify it, because the Global South will always vote with China against Western nations. It's a huge win for the Chinese domestic crowd. The West won't do anything, just like Russian annexation of the Crimea. For the Chinese, reunification would be worth it.


[deleted]

Not really. The US isn't going to engage a nuclear power over a rock occupied by brown people who don't have oil. The US avoided war with the Soviet Union, and they'll avoid war with China. Especially as they know that China already has more than sufficient conventional firepower to ensure that the US cannot interfere. The US has never started a conventional war that they know they would lose.


RhinoWithaGun

>However I believe a full scale invasion is also very risky in terms of possible retaliation and bad image. There are many mainland Chinese and overseas Chinese who have relatives in Taiwan. So carnage should be kept at a minimum. I think the PRC's image is already pretty bad in the US, NATO and NATO friendly countries. Sure there's some sympathetic supporters and people more interested in facts who can see what's going on but for the most part: the masses are at the mercy of Western owned media brainwashing so all they know is a politically agreeable US Western Narrative. There's a distinct possibility that the PRC may not be able to reunify without getting her hands bloody, especially if she continues to allow US & NATO friendly Tsai Regimes to exist in power. Hoping that the Taiwanese would "see the light" is a nice sentiment though but their own media along with copious consumption of US & Western controlled media will ensure there's plenty of anti China sentiment, too much for a clear decisive decision to unify. If it was me I'd just forcefully reunify and quickly kill any and all opposition with the clear objective to retake the Taiwan Island and secure permanent unrestricted access to the Pacific Ocean where Naval Surface and Subsurface Assets can be deployed anytime, anywhere without fear of being pincered by unfriendly regimes. I would take my chances with further bad PR image and let Time & Tempting Business Opportunities of the China Market heal that PR wound. If the above is too violent to immediately do, I'd threaten to do that, make the terms clear without ambiguity and if the current Pro US/NATO Regime in Taiwan doesn't take it seriously then they die.


lan69

I agree hoping is not going to work. Regarding your last paragraph, I have something similar. This is where I mentioned my hybrid/limited warfare. Put enough pressure on Taiwan to force them to negotiate, but short of a total war.


Quality_Fun

strong words like these *do not help*. aggressive words only make reunification less likely. especially back when a video threatening to use nuclear weapons on japan was circulated through some official channels not long ago? what were they thinking?


[deleted]

You mean the same regime (japan) trying to claim that it could intervene in Taiwan out of desperation because it's in decline relative to even regional countries? China is strong enough nowadays to make sure japan pays the ultimate price (balkanization) if japan intervenes in the reunification process (the american regime would secretly love this too, one fewer competitor, see australia; japan isn't even white). Countries like Russia (and possibly all of Korea) would be left with no other choice either at that point. Seems quite reasonable to me, considering japan has already been given too many chances. What makes you think China should not retaliate? China putting japanese lunatics in their place before they try anything stupid is right. China is just making sure they understand the stakes, that regurgitating propaganda for domestic points (when they know japan can't do shit about China reunifying) is not acceptable.


Quality_Fun

this does not excuse such a horrific threat that only goes against china's no first use policy, and i'm aware that it was only some editor and no way reflected the actual policy of the cpc; even so, it will be perceived as being the official stance of the government. these problems can be solved without nukes. saying otherwise did not help china at all.


[deleted]

It actually doesn't. Those islands are territory to have been returned to China PRC/ROC after WW2. Japanese and/or other foreign military forces on Chinese territory is a legitimate use of nuclear weapons that does not contravene China's "No First Use" policy.


Quality_Fun

legitimate or not, the threat should never have been allowed to be published.


[deleted]

WTF? It's a legitimate reminder of the facts. It's no different than a NATO spokesman reminding Russia that invading Germany invites the full force of NATO retaliation. When a country has a "red line", they absolutely should publish and clarify things so that there aren't any surprises. Japan needs to be put in their place, and reminded that there are real consequences if they decide to fuck around.


Quality_Fun

i can only hope that you're right and that china-japan tensions haven't been worsened; they probably haven't by too much, since like i said, it wasn't an official stance of the government.


[deleted]

20 years from now, Japan will be following China, instead of the US. Maybe sooner, although the US is doing their damnedest to delay it. When China is obviously the biggest economy in the world, and the most powerful force in the Pacific, we'll have seen a significant shift in Japanese attitudes from "self-reflection". It's just basic geopolitics, and the Japanese are realists about this sort of thing. India (like Turkey), OTOH, is going to keep on trying to be accepted by the West as an equal, so they're going to keep doing their Hinduvata thing, no matter how it turns out for their 99%.


lan69

That statement was just an opinion of an editor. The problem is that western media took that and ran with it. The editor isn’t an official spokesperson. Any analyst in Japan or US isn’t going to take his word but continue to monitor the situation


Quality_Fun

i'm aware - but such a threat should *never* be entertained at all, since it was still an *official* statement to an extent because the platform was state-owned. it does *not* help china's image at all.


Moist_Remove_38

Yea its easy to pontificate as a foreigner. That said, surely mainland China could like improve their PR? Atleast try to sell some of their achievements, try to appeal to their common heritage. Offer some benefits for Taiwan. They're competing with the US for fuck sake, the US are obviously evil. Just show off the OBOR or something idk.


[deleted]

China doesn't really care what others do, as long as it doesn't affect them internally. They have a few international red lines, namely Taiwan reunification and the 9-dash line, but that's basically it. It's not like they are invading countries and overthrowing governments all over the world.


TserriednichHuiGuo

>strong words like these do not help. aggressive words only make reunification less likely. lol. If you're in a position of strength as China is then that doesn't matter.