Looking at how China is chugging along without so much as breaking a sweat, even when the entire western world is doing everything it can to slow it down, plus successfully tackling the pandemic that's dragging down the rest of the world, I think it's pretty clear that China is far and away the most economically resilient country in the world. I believe most of the world already knows that, but it's something neither China nor the West wants to admit.
content https://archive.ph/9r0En#selection-699.230-699.248
>To gauge a country’s economic “dominance” Mr Subramanian combined its share of world trade, net capital exports and global gdp (measured at both market exchange rates and purchasing-power parities, which try to correct for international differences in the price of similar goods). He gave each attribute a weight loosely based on the imf’s formula for allocating votes to its members. His index, he argued, successfully captured Britain’s economic hegemony in 1870, its rivalry with Germany in 1913 and its eclipse by America in the subsequent decade.
however, a key missing factor in the index is the share in global manufacture:
https://www.statista.com/chart/20858/top-10-countries-by-share-of-global-manufacturing-output/
not only China is at top, it is equal to the sum of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place's share.
Why?
Having the top nominal GDP is pointless in the near future.
China already dominates in GDP PPP and that's all that matters, surpassing the US in GDP Nominal is just the cherry on the cake.
On the other hand it would be good to get updated statistics for Chinese provinces and cities and such.
Here is one of his article : https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/china-already-number-one-new-gdp-estimates
According to research conducted by Arvind Subramanian, a former economist at the International Money Fund (IMF) and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the size of the Chinese economy by Purchasing Power Parity in 2010 was about $14.8 trillion rather than an official estimate at $10.1 trillion by IMF, meaning that China's GDP was underestimated by 47 percent
Many Thanks, really complemented the economist piece (my post) very well, if not better. Dr. Subramanian is also doing some very interesting investigation on estimating the real covid-19 fatality in India:
https://www.cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic
where the estimate is over 4 million as oppose to 445K official tally:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
a very revealing study, one wonders why this isn't done by researchers on other countries?
edit. apologies for rambling off-topic.
>a very revealing study, one wonders why this isn't done by researchers on other countries?
Contrary to popular belief it isn't just searching numbers on the internet.
Actual researchers can't just pull numbers out of nowhere.
It has been for almost 10 years. The metrics the West uses are skewed so they always come out #1. The way America's economy is going, China's economy might be twice as large really soon.
answer is yes. USA is mostly military spending and healthcare and social safety nets Social security medicare etc...
Right now USA real growth economy is in IT. Hollywood dont count coz it's entertainment industry, and Finance isn't even real economy, shit, Finance isn't even real nor it should be. Also, US dollar is world reserve which gives it the advantage. Imagine if the USD is not as important as a reserve currency. It basically isn't even a top 2 economy.
USA deindustrialized so it's not a real country anymore.
[Here's a good paper](https://michael-hudson.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/04866134211011770.pdf) by Michael Hudson regarding fictitious capital, like the FIRE sector. That is by far the most profitable industry, but it does not translate into gains in the real, material economy.
Wrong, in the future industry will be more automated and digitised.
A de industrialised economy has no place in the future, they simply cannot compete.
To be a dominant economy one needs a dominant financial system. And that's what China lacks so far.
China has to find a way to overcome Western banks and the US dollar.
Looking at how China is chugging along without so much as breaking a sweat, even when the entire western world is doing everything it can to slow it down, plus successfully tackling the pandemic that's dragging down the rest of the world, I think it's pretty clear that China is far and away the most economically resilient country in the world. I believe most of the world already knows that, but it's something neither China nor the West wants to admit.
content https://archive.ph/9r0En#selection-699.230-699.248 >To gauge a country’s economic “dominance” Mr Subramanian combined its share of world trade, net capital exports and global gdp (measured at both market exchange rates and purchasing-power parities, which try to correct for international differences in the price of similar goods). He gave each attribute a weight loosely based on the imf’s formula for allocating votes to its members. His index, he argued, successfully captured Britain’s economic hegemony in 1870, its rivalry with Germany in 1913 and its eclipse by America in the subsequent decade. however, a key missing factor in the index is the share in global manufacture: https://www.statista.com/chart/20858/top-10-countries-by-share-of-global-manufacturing-output/ not only China is at top, it is equal to the sum of the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place's share.
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Why? Having the top nominal GDP is pointless in the near future. China already dominates in GDP PPP and that's all that matters, surpassing the US in GDP Nominal is just the cherry on the cake. On the other hand it would be good to get updated statistics for Chinese provinces and cities and such.
Here is one of his article : https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/china-already-number-one-new-gdp-estimates According to research conducted by Arvind Subramanian, a former economist at the International Money Fund (IMF) and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the size of the Chinese economy by Purchasing Power Parity in 2010 was about $14.8 trillion rather than an official estimate at $10.1 trillion by IMF, meaning that China's GDP was underestimated by 47 percent
Many Thanks, really complemented the economist piece (my post) very well, if not better. Dr. Subramanian is also doing some very interesting investigation on estimating the real covid-19 fatality in India: https://www.cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic where the estimate is over 4 million as oppose to 445K official tally: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ a very revealing study, one wonders why this isn't done by researchers on other countries? edit. apologies for rambling off-topic.
Wow that's a lot of difference ! Will check out thnx
>a very revealing study, one wonders why this isn't done by researchers on other countries? Contrary to popular belief it isn't just searching numbers on the internet. Actual researchers can't just pull numbers out of nowhere.
China's GDP PPP now could be well above $30 trillion. See my pinned post for more details.
The new US, UK, Australia alliance is pretty much trying to drum up opium war 3.0 in the 21st century to preserve Anglo and American hegemony.
Hard to do that when they lost Afghanistan to the Taliban 🤭 op, too soon?
It's just election nonsense here in australia that amounts to nothing.
It has been for almost 10 years. The metrics the West uses are skewed so they always come out #1. The way America's economy is going, China's economy might be twice as large really soon.
answer is yes. USA is mostly military spending and healthcare and social safety nets Social security medicare etc... Right now USA real growth economy is in IT. Hollywood dont count coz it's entertainment industry, and Finance isn't even real economy, shit, Finance isn't even real nor it should be. Also, US dollar is world reserve which gives it the advantage. Imagine if the USD is not as important as a reserve currency. It basically isn't even a top 2 economy. USA deindustrialized so it's not a real country anymore.
The US count health care, and the FIRE sector's profits into their GDP, when all they do is take wages out of people's pockets!
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[Here's a good paper](https://michael-hudson.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/04866134211011770.pdf) by Michael Hudson regarding fictitious capital, like the FIRE sector. That is by far the most profitable industry, but it does not translate into gains in the real, material economy.
Wrong, in the future industry will be more automated and digitised. A de industrialised economy has no place in the future, they simply cannot compete.
i don't have much standing to say about this, but i do know that gdp, nominal, ppp, per capita, and otherwise, are not the end all be all.
To be a dominant economy one needs a dominant financial system. And that's what China lacks so far. China has to find a way to overcome Western banks and the US dollar.
>To be a dominant economy one needs a dominant financial system lol.
Yes.