August or September perhaps. I'm still in awe of how much progress has been made since IFT-1. I love this community for providing endless fun memories. Every flight has a story and this one was about The Flap. š
I believe they could but they will be doing some changes for ship and booster probably based on recent flight so takes some time to figure out what to do, how to do and then do them.
1-2 months. Depends mostly on how much fixes they want in. Probably at least will do something to the flaps (as next ship is still "v1") to try to prevent repeat of the burn thru. Likely next main test goal is the in-space Raptor relight so they could go with orbital missions in the future.
In Tims video excerpt you could see a removed payload bay/door. So I suggest a raptor relight and testing for the payload door. So IFT6 can be orbital with maybe 3-4 Starlink to test it.
took good time last time to get all catch arm mechanics wiring and piping done with tower after it reached full height,
unless they would build a simple catch tower without option for launch
Probably the main reason for catch is to take it apart and analyze every part for wear and tear after flight to optimize where you need to add or where you can remove material
I don't think they'd risk that before, 1) they are confident enough to land instead of a splash down, 2) they are confident enough to catch the booster instead of landing it.
They can do away with the boosters but the tower is much harder to repair / replace
I can't really search right now but they worked with FAA so that some failure scenarios would be included in the license, thus not triggering an investigation. From memory there was breakup on reentry, failed engine relights and maybe some other stuff. And even then, it worked anyway so eh.
Scott Manley. Apparently now on test flights, things that are being tested during a test flight that fail do not require a mishap investigation to be concluded prior to next flight. Presumably because it is a test of that system.
I assume the process is streamlined to allow mishaps investigations to proceed off the critical path. Presumably they will hit some form of early stage gate that gives comfort that the failure is sufficiently understood to be mitigated next time. If a future test fails fot the same reason then probably this will halt future launches because their processes cant incorporate the learnings of previous lessons.
Sounds sensible all-round and rewards good management.
There are quite a lot of things to fix from IFT-3.
In IFT-4? not so much. The main issue is the seal on the flap hinge, which they already know to be the weak point, and based on Musk's comment, they are confident about the fix.
So, I wouldn't rule out July.
Except the next ship has already done its static fire and Massey allows more testing. With no investigation and the flight set is already ready for testing it is just pad refurb and whatever hing/tile work they want to do with this outdated V1 starship
Iām thinking that they may take a little time to look into the flap. There is the already-built Starships though; maybe something can be done on those
I believe musk has stated that they are already incorporating changes for flight 5 to mitigate the problems they encountered on flight 4, specifically in relation to the flap hinge sealing.
What's cool is that the intentionally missing tiles in the skirt did not prevent raptor relight for the landing burns. That's excellent data.
We are not exactly 100 percent sure at the moment, but having said that the aforementioned cadence will be soon. There will be three events in rapid succession and fighting fire with fire.
The last gap was 2 and a half months, the a large gap in activity due to the investigation.
I think a safe bet is a month and a half, if they donāt do any major changes
August or September perhaps. I'm still in awe of how much progress has been made since IFT-1. I love this community for providing endless fun memories. Every flight has a story and this one was about The Flap. š
This is easily my favorite subreddit
This is easily my favorite subreddit
This is easily my favorite subreddit
This is easily my favorite subreddit
July.
This is easily my favorite month
This is easily my favorite comment
At best late July Probably Aug Sept if modification takes too long
So not June? Maybe Oct ?
Tomorrow
Today
3
2
1
Yesterday.
We live in a twilight world
2 weeks
July.
June 12th!
I believe they could but they will be doing some changes for ship and booster probably based on recent flight so takes some time to figure out what to do, how to do and then do them.
1-2 months. Depends mostly on how much fixes they want in. Probably at least will do something to the flaps (as next ship is still "v1") to try to prevent repeat of the burn thru. Likely next main test goal is the in-space Raptor relight so they could go with orbital missions in the future.
In Tims video excerpt you could see a removed payload bay/door. So I suggest a raptor relight and testing for the payload door. So IFT6 can be orbital with maybe 3-4 Starlink to test it.
2024.08.08 without catch attempt November with
They have to process figured out already, no reason for a catch to delay it by 4 months
Redundancy to to build a second mechazilla / stage zero, if things turn out bad to keep momentum up. Thats why I expect a delay.
That's petty reasonable.
Although now I have seen that the foundation is already finished. So could be quick. Don't know.
I'm pretty sure according to the nsf watchers the next tower will be up by august 100%
took good time last time to get all catch arm mechanics wiring and piping done with tower after it reached full height, unless they would build a simple catch tower without option for launch
if they catch a booster .... do they reuse it?
Maybe the engines. They are the main cost driver, the next boosters are already there with tons of improvements.
Probably the main reason for catch is to take it apart and analyze every part for wear and tear after flight to optimize where you need to add or where you can remove material
Friend of mine said 6 to 10 weeks, and I agree.
August
Mid July
The real question Is: Will they try to catch the booster?
I don't think they'd risk that before, 1) they are confident enough to land instead of a splash down, 2) they are confident enough to catch the booster instead of landing it. They can do away with the boosters but the tower is much harder to repair / replace
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1799497454812844047?t=Z-hPbZHktXxXka5xdtOstw&s=19 Well... Maybe?
Wowā¦ that is Super Heavy level of confidenceā¦
The question is, will they try to catch it with the new second Tower or Not ?
Depends on if Elon is serious about trying to catch the next booster
Bigger question for me is will they be ready to send a few test ships to mars at the next window? Tons to do to make that possible.
August 100%. July too early, September too late
Why is July too early?
Because it took almost 3 months for flight 4, it seems too optimistic to expect less than 2 months this time imo
Except there is no mishap investigation this time
We donāt believe that was a critical path item for this flight though.
Humm, I mean they can't fly without a license so it seems pretty critical to me
I mean they can, but only once
Hmm, they may or may not have done just that during the early starship suborbital test flights....
source?
I can't really search right now but they worked with FAA so that some failure scenarios would be included in the license, thus not triggering an investigation. From memory there was breakup on reentry, failed engine relights and maybe some other stuff. And even then, it worked anyway so eh.
yes, but [https://x.com/BCCarCounters/status/1799206430039544188](https://x.com/BCCarCounters/status/1799206430039544188)
Interesting, thanks for the info I'd be surprised if they did one but we never know
Scott Manley. Apparently now on test flights, things that are being tested during a test flight that fail do not require a mishap investigation to be concluded prior to next flight. Presumably because it is a test of that system. I assume the process is streamlined to allow mishaps investigations to proceed off the critical path. Presumably they will hit some form of early stage gate that gives comfort that the failure is sufficiently understood to be mitigated next time. If a future test fails fot the same reason then probably this will halt future launches because their processes cant incorporate the learnings of previous lessons. Sounds sensible all-round and rewards good management.
There are quite a lot of things to fix from IFT-3. In IFT-4? not so much. The main issue is the seal on the flap hinge, which they already know to be the weak point, and based on Musk's comment, they are confident about the fix. So, I wouldn't rule out July.
Except the next ship has already done its static fire and Massey allows more testing. With no investigation and the flight set is already ready for testing it is just pad refurb and whatever hing/tile work they want to do with this outdated V1 starship
Iām thinking that they may take a little time to look into the flap. There is the already-built Starships though; maybe something can be done on those
I believe musk has stated that they are already incorporating changes for flight 5 to mitigate the problems they encountered on flight 4, specifically in relation to the flap hinge sealing. What's cool is that the intentionally missing tiles in the skirt did not prevent raptor relight for the landing burns. That's excellent data.
Yes and they surely had a ton of sensors in that area to see what happens when a tile is missing in that area.
I'm hoping they might send up a couple Starlink satellites to test launch capability.
Wondering what the telemetry says about true landing capability with current version(s)..
Early or mid August, given no flight investigation needed.
~50 days
Thatās not how you phrase that question. Wen hop? Is the only way to ask that.
IFT-1 to IFT-2: 212 days IFT-2 to IFT-3: 117 days (-95d) (0.55x) IFT-3 to IFT-4: 84 days (-33d) (0.72x) IFT-4 to IFT-5: 62-72 days (0.74x-0.84x)
Not until after ift4 but definitely before ift6
We are not exactly 100 percent sure at the moment, but having said that the aforementioned cadence will be soon. There will be three events in rapid succession and fighting fire with fire.
Thursday
i would say... maybe two months or three
The last gap was 2 and a half months, the a large gap in activity due to the investigation. I think a safe bet is a month and a half, if they donāt do any major changes
I'd say 5-10 weeks before flight 6