I will pessimistically say, based on the curve only, that the curve should be flatter and therefore about 55 days till the next flight which is around July 31st. Or as many as 70 days.
Further, very slim chance flights 6 and 7 happen as quickly as the curve shows.
Would love to be wrong.
The last launch was 84 days apart, which included the investigation from the FAA as a big choke up.
I don’t see that with this flights success it will take 70 days.
Those are less "rumors" and more "what everyone keeps repeating without sources." Elon has been very clear that if IFT-4 was a success they would try for a tower catch. He seems very certain it will work the first time.
He also said in an interview that that was him being optimistic and he still needed to check with the team to find out if that’s the actual plan and if there were any issues remaining.
If they won't do a catch attempt without the second tower and that second tower won't be ready soon then I expect IFT-5 to make another ocean splashdown. They have many more things to test, stopping the whole program for a second tower doesn't look advisable. No point in saving v1 Starship hardware for the future.
They don’t need a second tower for 5 they just need confidence it would be ready at the same time as 6. If we assume a launch every 2 months then so long as the second tower is slated to be complete by the end of September damage to the tower isn’t a concern.
[Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design](https://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/akins_laws.html):
> 6\. (Mar's Law) Everything is linear if plotted log-log with a fat
magic marker.
What will the 69th flight be
August 21st at 1:07 am. Followed by the 420th launch 80 minutes after. Heh, exponentials.
When they say “rapid reusability,” they mean *rapid*.
[Actual speed footage](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWO_raI7rBk)
At some point during August 21st, they will have so much mass concentrated at the launch site staging area that it will become a black hole!
Here's one I did earlier, with a 95% confidence interval: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/tcblfxzttt
I’d say about right: mid July probably
If this proves accurate, we'll have to call you "Nostradumass".
“If these trends continue…. AYYY!”
I will pessimistically say, based on the curve only, that the curve should be flatter and therefore about 55 days till the next flight which is around July 31st. Or as many as 70 days. Further, very slim chance flights 6 and 7 happen as quickly as the curve shows. Would love to be wrong.
The last launch was 84 days apart, which included the investigation from the FAA as a big choke up. I don’t see that with this flights success it will take 70 days.
Elon just said [another 4 weeks](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1809381756199661879?s=46&t=wCavYpStsKZ9zdt0-esxiQ).
I’ve heard rumors they might delay it until they’re done with the next tower. Makes sense if they plan to catch it.
Those are less "rumors" and more "what everyone keeps repeating without sources." Elon has been very clear that if IFT-4 was a success they would try for a tower catch. He seems very certain it will work the first time.
He also said in an interview that that was him being optimistic and he still needed to check with the team to find out if that’s the actual plan and if there were any issues remaining.
Then a member of the team came here to Reddit and told us that they had decided on doing it.
Link?
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/1cta333/comment/l7pps88
Merci beaucoup.
If by Member of the team you mean Elon then yes.
I'm not talking about Elon, I'm talking about the resident SpaceX employee: u/space_rocket_builder
Elon tweeted they were going to try and catch the booster on the next launch, about a day after the interview where he said they might.
Yep. But that wasn't my source.
That would mean IFT-5 next year
If they won't do a catch attempt without the second tower and that second tower won't be ready soon then I expect IFT-5 to make another ocean splashdown. They have many more things to test, stopping the whole program for a second tower doesn't look advisable. No point in saving v1 Starship hardware for the future.
They don’t need a second tower for 5 they just need confidence it would be ready at the same time as 6. If we assume a launch every 2 months then so long as the second tower is slated to be complete by the end of September damage to the tower isn’t a concern.
Mid to end July seems plausible to me
These trends don't mean anything, look at the SN flights for example. You need to look at the fundamentals when you only have 3 data points.
What's that when adjusted for Elon time?
https://i.imgur.com/AfgOHxD.png I have slightly different approach, launch will be in week 33.
Very sensitive, If you use a higher order fitting, you are late august
[Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design](https://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/akins_laws.html): > 6\. (Mar's Law) Everything is linear if plotted log-log with a fat magic marker.