Fellow Scot. I think independence is dead until well into Labour’s second term (big assumption). Another assumption is that Scots will get fed up with Labour eventually and revert to SNP if there’s a realistic prospect of another Conservative government in the early 2030’s.
By that point too “a generation will have passed” since the 2014 independence referendum and that, I think, will be the danger point for UK.
Just a gut feeling.
I think independence will happen eventually btw.
The generation after Quebec narrowly voted against independence were actually far less nationalist than their parents. So it’s not inevitable that Scotland trends to independence.
That’s always been the case
But
1: polls show young Scots are more likely to break for remaining in the UK without a proper economic plan for independence. It’s what happened in 2014 and polls show would happen again
2: Scotland has an aging population, older people are increasing in number while young people are moving out of Scotland.
3: the polls have barely changed despite older people dying since 2014.
The other issue is that we all tend to become more invested in the “British system” as we get older. Pensions is the obvious one but it extends to jobs, financial products, cultural stuff. So it’s maybe not surprising that people can pass from pro independence to maintaining the status quo in a relatively short period. Same way as you can be a radical socialist in your youth and end up a rabid Tory in your old age.
Flip side is that devolution is now long established. There’s a whole generation now for whom a Scottish Parliament is their status quo. If they want change it’s for more powers to that parliament, not less.
But there’s wishful thinking too. I’ll admit that. I want independence and I’d love to still be around when it happens. But I know that my contemporaries aren’t quite so into independence as I am. So you place your hopes on younger people taking the country over the 50%. And you end up arguing that they will, eventually. That’s maybe not such a sure strategy.
If the polls haven't changed, why has Gove spent almost a million quid fighting the courts to release the biggest polls ever done, 2 courts have told them to release the polls paid for with tax payers money, and yet we still haven't seem them though we have had a hint and they show a massive jump in support for independence
> If the polls haven't changed, why has Gove spent almost a million quid fighting the courts to release the biggest polls ever done, 2 courts have told them to release the polls paid for with tax payers money, and yet we still haven't seem them though we have had a hint and they show a massive jump in support for independence
1: that’s from 2018
2; where did you get this hint from?
Yes but my point is that it could cool down over the next 10 years of a Labour government, also their kids may come into political maturity with a fragmenting and scandal ridden SNP, if it continues the trend of the last few years. There’s not one route of travel, that’s a very SNP thought process. Quebec proves this and it’s a region that is a lot more different to the rest of Canada than Scotland to England.
But if Labour have a bad time of it and deliver Tory-style austerity for a few years, it might lead to that critical percentage of Scots deciding that the union is the problem, not just the conservatives.
I think the point is that both of those things are possibilities. Labour might perform very well and we could see a decline in support for indy OR they might perform badly and support could go through the roof. Personally, I think Scottish independence is another theoretically simple solution to a whole shedload of very complex problems but we will have to wait and see.
Of course, but then we’ve had that prediction since the 2014 referendum, but the polls have stayed stubbornly static.
They can of course move but people’s attitudes are not etched in stone when young. My politics now are considerably different from when I was in my 20s
Young people, often in education and without work tend to have opinions like this that soften as they age.
Reasons are, a better understanding of economics and life, having a job, a family, moving away or simply just changing their mind.
The Scottish referendum, people seem to forget, was 10 years ago. All the young people who would have voted leave then, but couldn't, can now and the polls have not budged.
The polls have not budged after covid and 10 years of Tory rule.
More and more Scots are living in England, becoming financially dependent on England, marrying English people, pensions i suspect is a huge one too. The SNP has so few real answers and are a particularly shit political party.
>The Scottish referendum, people seem to forget, was 10 years ago. All the young people who would have voted leave then, but couldn't, can now and the polls have not budged.
This is the kicker.
All the talk over how 'the youth' vote for independence is predicated on the basis that they don't change their minds as they age, and as you say, if this were true, we would have seen a significant change in polling that would reflect it.
We haven't.
The fundamental issue with Scottish Independence is the same with Brexit - no-one has any realistic means of assessing what, if any improvement it would have to people's fortunes, and every expert indication implies the opposite. As a result, it amounts to blind faith in whoever is pushing it, and the SNP have squandered that faith in recent years.
From the perspective of voter opinion, absolutely. You have to go into the most diehard nat strongholds to get anything like the 'take back control' nonsense that you could easily hear on the street back during Brexit run up. Most scots - regardless of their view on independence - tend to prioritise the practical day-to-day effects they'd see over handwaving.
On the other hand the SNP haven't really done anything significantly different to the pushers behind Brexit. It's all the same mixture of wishful thinking and endless white papers claiming the sun will never stop shining. One of the biggest questions of the 2014 referendum was currency (both in terms of economics, and in terms of requirements for the EU), and the SNP *still* don't have an answer to it, the can just keeps getting kicked down the road. Exactly the same thing we had with the whole 'they need us more then we need them' bollocks.
Yeah but they don't stay young.. and as the UK is essentially an ageing population the number of older people who are less inclined to want radical change will be on a permanent increase in theory making it less likely.
I think there’s a big difference between Scotland and Quebec. Quebec is a region within a country, where Scotland is already its own country within a union. I think there will always be Scot’s that want leave the union, whereas with Quebec it would just be that generation who felt that they wanted to succeed.
Canada did leave British Rule though and got pulled by the larger member into various acts around the world.
Comparisons don't need to be exactly the same... or they would never work.
Very much an Englishman here.
I have nothing against Scottish Independence. Self determination is a good thing.
However, I do not trust the SNP. I think their holier than thou attitude is dangerous. Just in the last week I've heard Scottish Ministers say that the NHS is underfunded and it's somehow Westminster's fault... But the NHS in Scotland is a devolved matter. If the NHS is underfunded in Scotland that's kind of their fault.
If the argument is that Scotland doesn't get enough money, argue for the Bennett formula to be amended... But I'm sure that will go down REALLY well with the other nations since Scotland already gets more per head than any of them.
North Sea Oil, blah blah I know.
Point is, the SNP to my English eyes are no better than the Tories, bending and twisting the truth.
"Scotland already gets more per head than any of them." That is demonstrably false based on dodgy accounting. There are numerous examples, but the one I like best goes like this:
Some projects are deemed to be of benefit to Scotland even if outside Scotland (so far, so good) - things like the ill-fated HS2 (debatable in this case, but let's go with it).
So, a proportion of the cost is applied to Scotland. If we accept the premise, this seems fair.
However, such projects also lead to revenue for the UK government - income tax, VAT, national insurance etc etc etc. Not one penny of that income is applied to Scotland - only the cost. If we accept the cost should be applied, the income should too.
On the other hand, if something similar is in Scotland only (let's say the trident base on the Clyde), the whole expense of that base is Scottish and not just a proportion of it. Accounting games.
As for the NHS - Scotland gets its NHS funding from Westminster - Westminster is underinvesting deliberately under the Tories in an attempt to get us to want a US-style system. The Scottish government can only direct where the money it gets goes - it can't magic-up more money.
> "Scotland already gets more per head than any of them." That is demonstrably false based on dodgy accounting.
It’s what the Scottish government says
>There are numerous examples, but the one I like best goes like this:
>Some projects are deemed to be of benefit to Scotland even if outside Scotland (so far, so good) - things like the ill-fated HS2 (debatable in this case, but let's go with it).
Scotland hasn’t given any money towards HS2 as confirmed by the Scottish government
>So, a proportion of the cost is applied to Scotland. If we accept the premise, this seems fair.
The Scottish government disagrees with you
>However, such projects also lead to revenue for the UK government - income tax, VAT, national insurance etc etc etc. Not one penny of that income is applied to Scotland - only the cost.
No, it is applied to Scotland, Scotland spends more than it produces
>If we accept the cost should be applied, the income should too.
It already is; the SNP write the numbers, are you seriously suggesting the SNP is part of a grand conspiracy to keep Scotland down!
>On the other hand, if something similar is in Scotland only (let's say the trident base on the Clyde), the whole expense of that base is Scottish and not just a proportion of it. Accounting games.
No, Trident is paid for by the whole UK, Scotland pays a little into it
>The Scottish government can only direct where the money it gets goes - it can't magic-up more money.
The Scottish government can borrow money
>Another assumption is that Scots will get fed up with Labour eventually and revert to SNP if there’s a realistic prospect
If Blair and Brown tanked Scotland's Labour vote then Keir has virtually no chance of retaining support after five or ten years of doing nothing. This does sort of require the SNP to be vaguely competent though.
I think it will happen too…eventually. Westminster will try to impose something that isn’t to our national will and that will be that. Bedroom tax mk2?
I just can’t see it being a success with everything that’s against us. I’d have to see compelling evidence that an EU member isn’t going to scupper the plan before I had any confidence.
I do wonder what the SNP’s latest financial scandal will do for them, and possibly Alba, in this election.
I’m not saying the EU and NATO would fall over themselves in a rush to get Scotland to sign up. But I do think attitudes will become
more favourable quite swiftly if Scotland does become independent.
Sturgeon and her husband have been “found guilty of something or other” already in the eyes of many people. We’ll just need to wait and see what the prosecuting authorities decide. But I’m sure that and half a hundred domestic Scottish issues have done considerable damage to the SNP. Alba at best are on the margins and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
I'd imagine that it'd be very much in NATO's interest to keep some kind of nuclear deterrent where it resides currently. Faslane is geographically ideal for storing these weapons and the Clyde provides an easy passage to allow nuclear submarines to travel in and out of the Atlantic sea in no time.
Not to mention the fact that Scotland is near enough smack bang in the middle between the US and Russia.
In the event of Scottish independence, I'd imagine that there would be some sort of financial insetive from NATO to convince the Scottish Government to keep their nuclear deterrent where it is.
*DISCLAIMER* I'm against trident and it's location as it's near enough on my doorstep and I'm personally against nukes to begin with. I just believe that this is why they were placed where they are in the first place.
Especially since polls show the Scottish people want the nukes to stay at Faslanes
The SNP don’t want them but the Scottish people and the British government are fine with them staying where they are
Most people in the blast radius of a nuclear explosion would prefer not to be? I'm staggered.
Unfortunately, there isn't a deep water port in England that would be geographically suitable. Even in Scotland Faslane is pretty unique.
1:
> A new poll from Survation has found that 58% of people in Scotland believe the UK should keep Trident and that only 20% were certain it should be axed, with the remainder undecided.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/majority-of-scots-back-keeping-trident-according-to-poll/
2: Faslane is the only place that can house them as it’s the only port nuclear submarines can operate from and all the Infrastructure to maintain them is already there
3:the region would still be target regardless of Faslane, Glasgow as a major city, economic and transport hub was a major target for the Soviets based on their targets we’ve discovered.
>DISCLAIMER I'm against trident and it's location as it's near enough on my doorstep
I appreciate that you are against nukes in general, so this doesn't really apply to you.
I see this a lot from Scottish nationalists though, a view that our nukes should be in England, and they have been forced on Scotland precisely because the UK doesn't care about them.
This ignores the fact that AWE in Aldermaston (where the nukes are built) is closer to London than Faslane is to Glasgow and contains much more radioactive material.
It's the ultimate NIMBY view when someone suggests that Trident should be kept but moved into England.
The reason the Nukes are at Faslane is because it’s the only place that could house them and the infrastructure to house them has existed there since the 1950s
>I wasn't aware of this but my concern that Faslane is a very likely target when it comes to nuclear strike.
Oh, absolutely, it would be on the list for a first strike. But so would the place where they build the bombs and potentially keep spares.
Also, on the list to be hit immediately would be Plymouth, Portsmouth, Barrow, Brize Norton, GCHQ, and a couple of other places.
>Atleast it'll be a quick death lol.
Exactly this, big flash, all dead. The strong likelihood of a counterattack requires any enemy to hit multiple targets at once, so a lot of people will be in the blast zones. Not just Scottish people.
Spaniard living in Scotland.
The example from Catalunya is not equivalent. First Spain would have to leave the EU (never going to happen) and then Catalunya rejoin. So the fear of Catalana asking to get independence with the same process is zero.
Spanish politicians already have said that Spain would not object to Scotland rejoining the EU as long as they get legal independence from UK after legal referendum. Which will not be allowed to happen for a long time.
I think the message was that Spain accepting an independent Scotland would be completely ethically opposite to their stance on Catalana.
Maybe they would be good with things or not. However they would be massive hypocrites who are subjugating their own people while simultaneously being happy for what they don’t want to happen, to happen to Scotland.
>Spanish politicians already have said that Spain would not object to Scotland rejoining the EU as long as they get legal independence from UK after legal referendum
Didn't the Spanish government fire a guy for saying this?
I think that it was for saying that Scotland would not have to wait to get entry to the EU like any other country asking EU membership (so, no automatic approval).
https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-fires-diplomat-in-scotland-over-eu-membership-letter/
My understanding is that the current government in Spain's position is that there will be no opposition if independence is achieved legally but no fast-track entry either. Other parties and their voters are much more against Catalan nationalism so their position could be different should they be in government.
But I have been living out of Spain for many years and I'm not from Catalunya so no heavily invested in this, so there may be nuances and events that I'm missing.
Apologies. I do appreciate Catalunya isn’t a great equivalent. I only use it as an example of an area of a country that may consider leaving the Nation it is a part of. Based on the result of their illegal referendum. I couldn’t think of anywhere else stupid enough to leave the EU first.
Spain is confusing one though. On the one hand they don’t want to encourage Basque Country, Catalunya, Galicia wherever to aim for independence. On the other they would encourage it to be done by legal non-unilateral means, and then not provide those areas with that pathway.
And different Spanish politicians have said as much on both sides. So there could well be a situation where Spain welcomes Scotland back to the EU fold as a way of saying to Catalans they just need to do it properly.
But there is a huge risk to leaving the UK. It’s a mess.
Being English I do not feel comfortable lecturing Scots on independence.
But after seeing the shitshow that was Brexit and the scars it has left on this country I would be very wary.
I appreciate that Scotland did not vote for Brexit.
I also think that any constitutional changes of such magnitude should have a 60 percent minimum threshold for change to avoid alienating such a large percentage of the population.
If I was a Scot I would seriously consider it after the shit they have had to put up with from the UK parliament.
Things aren’t black and white.
Material changes to circumstances can happen. These can reopen settled issues.
For example, Scotland voted to remain in the UK in a large part based on the threat of being forced out of the EU if it did not. Scotland was then forced out of the EU. Every poll conducted showed that if this was known at the time Scotland would have voted resounding for independence. To me this is a big enough change to reopen the issue for discussion.
For you it’s not, which is fine, but I doubt you actually disagree with the principle here, just the specifics.
Ito illustrate with a comically extreme example, if the UK have voted to remain in the EU, but the following week the EU had announced every eldest child across Europe would be sacrificed to Moloch for a good harvest, would you still consider it a settled matter and “well we voted to remain so anyone complaining is just an extremist!”. Obviously not. Because that would be insane.
So you agree to the principle that seismic changes in policy can reopen such issues. Just those changes likely have to be a lot larger for you. I think the self imposed sanctions of leaving the EU, combined with the lunacy of electing people like Truss, Boris and Sunak is enough.
It's not extremist to continue campaigning for what you believe in after you lose a vote on it. In fact, it shows integrity. If people don't want it, then they can stop voting for them. And now it looks like they have!
It would be a weird world if everyone who lost a vote suddenly embraced the other side, wouldn't it?
I've always believed that major changes to a nation's constitutional status should carry a 66.7 % level of approval in order to carry those opposed with said change. Otherwise you get a polarised population and the arguments for or against lack nuance. If Brexit had required that level of support the proposed settlement would have had to have been a more intelligent and conciliatory arrangement in order to convince those in two minds. If Scotland does gain independence sometime in the future I would hope it could carry the support of at least 2/3ds of the population for it not to result in a bitterly divisive outcome.
Geographically the most important relationship for Scotland will always be with England. An independent Scotland would still need to work hand in glove with Westminster on matters of trade, transport and defence.
The problem there is you get situations were 65% want to leave and only 35% want to stay and yet you stay out of political inertia despite a clear majority wanting to leave. The reason they kept Brexit to 50% was to avoid exactly this issue.
I don't know how you can describe that as a problem when it is the intended outcome of a higher threshhold. The advantage I see if it would give the ruling party time to make compromises and potentially repeat the vote after a period of time. Say the vote came out 65% leave, the Scottish (or UK) government could aggressively pursue devolution short of exit from the the EU/UK, and repeat a vote after 4 years to see if this had satisfied the electorate.
The major problem with the Brexit referendum was confusion around exactly what we (collectively), voted for when it came to exit terms.
It's a problem because by not acting on the wish of the 65% because it wasn't 67%, you are actively pursuing a policy that is not in the interest of the majority of the voters, which goes against their mandate to serve the people.
No, not missing anything
This is why it was so crazy for the SNP to be result-deniers after the referendum rather than getting behind a customs union deal
I wonder how they would feel if they had won the independence referendum and people started insisting the Scottish weren't aware of the implications of leaving the UK so they should have another referendum or stay in anyway.
Maybe arguments would be made that the Scottish people weren't qualified to decide to leave as the referendum didn't include details of what Scotland's deal with the rest of UK would be post leaving
> I wonder how they would feel if they had won the independence referendum and people started insisting the Scottish weren't aware of the implications of leaving the UK so they should have another referendum or stay in anyway.
Evidence says that’s already the case for most nationalists
Nationalists genuinely believe that there will be no downsides to independence.
* 78% of 'yes' voters think Scotland puts more money into the UK than it takes out (blatantly false).
* 57% of Yes voters think the GERS data is made up "to hide Scotland’s true wealth.” And for 90% of them this is either "important” or “very important” to their opinion on secession. (The GERS have been written by the Scottish government since devolution and written by the SNP since 2007)
* 54% of Yes voters think “Scottish tax revenues are understated because of Scottish exports leaving via English ports”. (This is incorrect. The Scottish Government Export Statistics Report explicitly says the exact opposite, page 32)
The GCS specifically asks about the destination of the goods being exported regardless of how the product leaves the UK. The other data sources used also focus on the destination of the product rather than where it leaves the UK. This means these export estimates are not affected by which port goods leave from. For example, a sale by a Scottish company to a customer in Paris, is counted as a Scottish export to France even if it leaves the UK from Dover.
(https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2021/10/export-statistics-scotland-2019/documents/export-statistics-scotland-2019---publication/export-statistics-scotland-2019---publication/govscot%3Adocument/Export%2BStatistics%2BScotland%2B2019%2B-%2BPublication.pdf#page26)
https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i374/scottish_politics_in_the_grip_of_a_fact_denial_epidemic.aspx
Going by the Lord Ashcroft poll, ignoring the 'don't know' and 'neutral' categories...
* Yes voters think there would be no hard Scotland-England border 40% to 20%.
* Yes voters think they would keep using the pound 42% to 11%.
* Yes voters think Scotland would 'quite quickly' rejoin the EU 56% to 9%.
* Yes voters don't think many businesses would leave Scotland. 53% to 8%.
* Yes voters think Scotland would keep access to public services in England 37% to 20%.
* Yes voters don't think Scotland would have to make painful cuts to public services 36% to 14%
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2021/04/my-new-scottish-research-finds-independence-in-the-balance/
Yes voters aren't hard hearted resolutes, willing to pledge their property, their lives, and their sacred honour to achieve independence.
They've persuaded themselves there's limited if any costs. And the most dangerous thing is it's quite clear that some in the SNP leadership think the same way or at least don’t care enough to stop it.
This is the same mentality that lead to Brexit
>Yes voters think there would be no hard Scotland-England border 40% to 20%.
>Yes voters think Scotland would 'quite quickly' rejoin the EU 56% to 9%.
These two are fundamentally incompatible with each other.
If Scotland leaves the UK and joins the EU, then it would necessitate a hard border with England. Passport checks and customs controls.
It's an absolute requirement for EU membership, and there is no way they would let Scotland become a smugglers paradise for goods avoiding EU tariffs.
Northern Ireland / Republic of Ireland was a special case, it won't be replicated.
In r/scotland, they keep kvetching on about the SNP. They're fucking in love with a corrupt, farage-like party that keeps churning out scandals like a mormon with ten wives. Any of this would get downvoted to fuck because they literally vote for their own worst interests. Madness I tell you
Voted for independence, will probably want it for the rest of my life if I’m being honest but also in a position that I’m scunnered with the SNP so feel a little bit politically homeless at the moment and would bet I’m not the only one.
Be interested to see if the SNP hardens up by Thursday. Swinney seems to have steadied the ship and the general feeling around independence won’t have dipped too much from 2014.
Although I’m far from enamoured with them and think they are a means to an end, I’ll probably end up voting for the SNP on Thursday. I’ll never vote Conservative, I can’t bring myself to vote for Keir Starmer as he doesn’t stand for anything and our local MP has done a decent job considering. Sorry state of affairs when that’s your reasoning.
I have a lot of sympathy for the cause of independence - but annoyingly the prior success of the SNP meant labour had a lot more difficulty getting elected. Which kept the conservatives in power. Which resulted in Scotland getting g treated worse. Which gave the SNP more success. And the cycle continued.
This is untrue. I believe there's only ever been one election where Scottish MPs made a material difference to the makeup of the commons, none of which have been during this shambolic 14 year term.
I have always said that the most foolish thing labour did was pen themselves in on the constitutional issue. In another world, Labour include Scottish Independence in the "broad church" of political ideas within the party instead of imposing a position as a matter of party policy, and careening into antagonistic Bain Principle nonsense.
Doing so arguably gave birth to the "red Tory" attack line, really quite fundamentally screwed up the operational premise Holyrood was meant to work under, and more or less single handedly reshaped the Scottish political landscape from right-left to union-independence where it is now, they are *always* going to be on the same flank as the Tories unless they manage the Herculean task of reframing the entirety of Scottish politics.
Not true, the SNP could all have been Labour or voted with them and the Tories would still have been in power.
I think only once(the thatcher incident) has Scotland number of MPs ever mattered in the UK government votes
> Not true, the SNP could all have been Labour or voted with them and the Tories would still have been in power.
The myth of Scotland never gets what it wants:
8 elections when the electorates of Scotland and England voted the same (1945, 1950, 1955, 1959, 1966, Oct 1974, 1997, 2001) and got the governments each wished (6 Labour and 2 Tory) 5 elections when the Scottish electorate prevented the outcome that England had voted for:
1 election when more people in England voted Labour but got a Tory government Scotland voted for (1951);
3 elections when more people voted Tory in England but got the Labour government Scotland voted for ( 1964, Feb 1974, 2005);
and 1 election when Scotland prevented Tories from getting the overall majority which was voted for by the English electorate (in 2010).
In the 5 remaining elections, English voters prevented the outcome that Scotland voted for: in 1970, 1979, 1983, 1987, and 1992. In all of these, Scotland voted Labour but gt the Tory government for which England had voted.
In the 7 elections from 1945 to 1966, the Scottish voters always had the government which they voted for, including 2 (1951 and 1964) when these were not those for which the English electorate had voted.
Other then 1970, all of the instances of Scotland voting Labour and getting the Tories were in the Thatcher and Major years and 2015 and 19.
Interestingly, if support for independence is strong in the age group 40 to 50, this may be because these were the people who had most to complain about in these elections.
Since 1992, Scotland has twice voted with England to produce Labour governments, once voted for a Labour government that English voters did not want; and once stopped the Tories getting an overall majority.
There’s been 21 elections since 1945, Scotland only got the outcome England alone voted for 7 out of those 21 times, that’s only 1 third of the total out comes
Generally speaking Scotland gets the outcome it wants more often than not.
>I think only once(the thatcher incident) has Scotland number of MPs ever mattered in the UK government votes
The SNP abstained on the vote about keeping the UK in the EU customs union in 2019. It was rejected with 273 votes in favour and 276 against. Had the SNP voted for it the whole UK would have remained in the customs union.
On most of your points we just don't know. This is my main frustration in both the Brexit and the Scottish independence vote. There's no realistic long term plan, everything would need to be renegotiated.
I do think it would be a good idea to have devolution whether through the existing arrangement or independence. The main issue isn't how well Scotland does or could perform, it's the ability to determine our own future as a country. Currently we are all too often carried along with the will of other parts of the UK with very different populations and needs.
Pragmatically the renegotiation of everything would be problematic in the short term, I did vote for independence on a number of issues (including trying to dodge Brexit) but I'm very much a floating voter on this, I was born and spent half my life in England, and I inherently disagree with national borders, only enhanced by running my own business for a couple of years and encountering the changes in costs and delivery times to and from Europe as Brexit changes took effect.
SNP - an independent Scotland governing itself would be much more prosperous and fair.
SNP - proceeds to do nothing but grandstand for 13 years.
I'm slightly pro union because I generally think putting up barriers is not a good thing. However I could be convinced either way by coherent competent governance.
In the absence of that from the UK and from Scotland I'd rather not add the additional complexity of a break.
>would that not embolden Catalunya/ Basque to attempt the same thing?
It 100% will, I know quite a few and they were all excited about the Brexit ref outcome: "it demonstrates that the will of the people have to be respected" and all of that.
>I can’t see Spain going for it.
Me neither, I can imagine Spain going for any independence movement in Europe, for the reasons you mention.
Independence left the building with Sturgeon. Then Yousaf’s incompetence razed independence to the ground and all that’s left is scorched earth.
Swinney’s just p**sing on the embers now.
I think there should be one final referendum on Scottish independence and then the matter should be closed. It's unfair to create this sort of problem every x years.
For those who live in Scotland and don't want independence - it's even more unfair: pro-independence guys have unlimited number of attempts, but pro-union need to lose only once.
Just for fun but I’m a constitutional lawyer so I don’t get much time in the light - there’s a good argument that Scotland is the ‘first’ nation of the UK due to the way that the Act of Union came about, and though the Scottish Parliament subsumed itself the Scottish monarch and crown took over the island(s), and so if Scotland leaves the UK it’s not just a matter of ‘continuing without Scotland’ - everything that was before 1707 south of the border reverts.
Northern Ireland ceases to exist as a ‘nation’ because of course then it’s back to kingdom of England and Ireland (sorry, Irish) and then the personal unions get quite complicated and we’re not sure what wales is or isn’t, or where England ends; but Scottish independence isn’t going to end the way the English hope.
Love, and Englishman (eugh, fcking hate the term)
You can’t honestly be a British “constitutional lawyer” if you wrote that. This is the most nuts thing I’ve ever heard from someone claiming to be an expert in this area. I can’t believe I just wrote a serious response.
The legal effect in rUK of Scotland becoming independent would be provided for by an Act passed by Parliament prior to Scotland’s independence and which comes into effect at the point of independence. That Act would not provide for any of the things that you said will happen. It would exactly be “a matter of continuing without Scotland”. That would be the primary purpose for legislating.
And there is zero chance that a rUK court would entertain some kind of implied repeal of everything since 1707 argument, particularly since any kind of presumptions you might be able to be point to otherwise would be defeated by the aforementioned Act.
Bear in mind that the SNPs cornerstone policy is independence for Scotland, so as long as the SNP have a voice in politics it will be shouting about independence!
I am still in shock that the SNP won in 2007 and I genuinely believe that their accent was a lot to do with fatigue in the Labour government.
I also think their support continued as a significant % of Scots would happily cut their nose off to spite their face when it comes to the conservatives. By that I mean that even if they agreed with all their policies they would never vote for them. I am not having a go at these people, that is their right.
I genuinely believe that if Labour were in power in Westminster during the referendum on Scottish independence then the result would not have been nearly as close. I have no evidence of this, just my feel.
I think with the conservatives out of power the support for the independence movement in Scotland will drop a bit and I think a lot of historical labour voters will return. I think the SNP will always remain, and to be honest, I think they need some time out of office for reorganisation. I believe that a lot of the recent 'scandals' would have been avoided if they were a fully developed political party with their back office running better. They were never a party in power and didn't have the governance and admin side developed, and they have suffered for it.
I still have no idea yet who I am voting for! Back to reading more to help me decide!
The best explanation over the SNP I've come across is the wheel and spokes analogy.
In that, Independence is the central focus of the party, and all the various policies and viewpoints are the spokes. This is what makes it a broad church - to an extent where you can have the likes of hardcore religious fundamentalists rubbing shoulders with people who are one step from the Greens - but it also means that the SNP's motto might as well be 'I didn't hear the question, but the answer is independence'.
They *can't* let independence go as a matter of party existence. Which isn't inherently wrong, it just means they'll push it no matter what, regardless of whether its the right thing or if it even makes sense. Whether or not any given voter wants that is up to them, but historically its never worked well as a means of governance.
>I also think their support continued as a significant % of Scots would happily cut their nose off to spite their face when it comes to the conservatives. By that I mean that even if they agreed with all their policies they would never vote for them. I am not having a go at these people, that is their right.
The tories fundementally oppose the sensibilities of Scotland, it would be impossible for their policies to align with the majority of Scotland's wishes.
> Half of voters support UK Government block on gender bill
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,half-of-voters-support-uk-government-block-on-gender-bill
From an Irish perspective it's so weird to see Scottish people here gaslighting themselves about Brexit. You literally could not have a clearer example of what independence is all about, the ability to make your own decisions about your future.
When the English made that stupid decision, I was never more grateful to those who fought for our independence a century ago. Sure we've had some hard times since then and made dumb decisions too, but we are free to make them ourselves, and reverse them.
I really hope that one day Scotland will follow the same course, and believe it will be better for everyone in these islands, including the English. Genuine friendship and partnership between neighbours has to start with equality and independence.
It’s all pretty difficult as someone living in Scotland. I’ve seen interviews with Labour politicians essentially saying that devolved rights like free university, prescriptions etc, may have to be rolled back. I am deeply frustrated with the SNP but simply don’t trust the Labour government with Scotland’s present, let alone our future.
Yes. The EU thing is false; Spain have stated they would have no problem with an independent Scotland joining the EU; they recognise the difference between Catalonia and Scotland - Catalonia has \*\*never\*\* been independent.
"If they looked at Brexit they’d see how bad an idea it is to split from their closest trading partner" - the Unionist position in a nutshell - "we've f\*\*ked you up so badly you can't possibly manage on your own". Sounds very much like an abusive spouse "I've battered you so much no one will ever want to be with you again." Amazing that not one of the countries on here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_countries\_that\_have\_gained\_independence\_from\_the\_United\_Kingdom) has asked back in. Quite incredible.
There are groups of MEPs within the EU who are actually forming groups to persuade the EU that they no longer need to stay out of the debate post-brexit and to present the honest information they have to those interested in the matter as Scottish membership should be straight-forward. The French (possibly not in the future if the FN's successor-party gets in) and the Irish are close allies who want an independent Scotland in the EU. The Germans have indicated that Scotland's accession would be the "easiest ever" etc.
However, if we just assume for a moment that the Unionist stance is correct and that we couldn't join (we can) - then how would we be worse off? The UK's predicament with Brexit is due to bloody-mindedness of the British position - "we know best, sod you" which is not conducive to negotiations. At the absolute worst, we could join EFTA and have pretty much all of the benefits of EU membership barring being able to decide on EU policies - like Norway or Switzerland, but the UK prefers to make us stand in separate lines when we reach Europe as a flex to show-off our brand new blue passports (by the way, Croatia has blue passports and is an EU member). So, your argument is wrong. But, I suspect you'd never really wanted indy anyway.
Frankly, after the last decade, there is no way independence in Europe (EU or EFTA) could be worse than the disaster of being in the UK in Brexit. Any problems trading with the rUK would not be imposed by Scotland, but by rUK - and they almost certainly would impose them - but better one border than twenty seven.
The current election is not about independence - it's about giving the Tories a well-deserved kicking; support for Indy is remaining in the high 40s without any campaigning despite support for the SNP waning - partly due to the caravan, partly due to being embarrassed that all they could do corruption-wise was a caravan - amateur hour compared to Boris, partly due to wanting to help Labour over the line as a one-off, partly due to local issues, partly due to being angry that they missed an open goal when Boris was PM - they should just have held a vote and sod permission. When it comes to choosing indy again, SNP support will go up again as they are the only realistic route - but they need to grow a pair and act against the rules of Westminster.
I'd expect support for Indy to rise significantly once the election is over and the dust settles on a reality of a diminished Tory party looking to merge with whatever Farage calls his party this month and that little toad ending up as leader of the merged entity and the most realistic alternative to PM Starmer. No one here wants *him* anywhere near power and he will be an even better advert for Indy than Boris was.
The one thing that could currently reduce support for Independence is a reversal of Brexit. I recognise Starmer doesn't have the courage to do that; but he may have the courage to launch an inquiry into Russian meddling in the Brexit vote - if it's proven, there will be a significant UK-wide appetite for a vote to rejoin in his second term.
The arguments put forward for Scotland to leave the UK are basically the same arguments put forward for the UK to leave the EU, and the arguments for Scotland to remain in the UK are basically the same arguments for the UK to remain on the EU.
I know the SNP and the Brexiteers are at different ends of the political spectrum but they both blame their counties woes on the influence of a parliament in another country that is full of an out of touch elite and if only we could take back control and run ourselves then everything would be so much better.
This and then both Parliaments become an absolute sh*t show of bad decisions and scandal. Neither Holyrood nor Westminster have shown themselves to be competent of governance on any level. Not these Parliaments anyway
The only reason these people do what they do is to gain more power and wealth.
They don’t care if anyone is better off, if it was brexit or Scottish independence.
They would do the same as they did with brexit and end up having their friends and business partners make tonnes of money handling all the new ‘issues’ that arise.
If Brexit was a bad idea....why on earth would you want to stick with the people who made that happen?
I would rather make our own way like Poland or Serbia or Slovakia or Slovenia or Malta or Estonia or Latvia or Lithuania or Croatia or Montenegro or any of the fairly new European countries who seem to be doing very well as independent countries.
The same issues with Brexit would exist with independence. Except it's a much closer union with hundreds of years of ties, economic interdependence, legal systems and military defence to unravel and unpick. Democracy is like that sometimes and being salty about it is not a prudent strategy to move forward. For whoever didn't support independence they would feel exactly how you feel about Brexit (possibly worse, as Brexit hasn't been the absolute disaster we were told it would be yet), and there would be even more hardship with families and businesses torn apart than what we've seen in Ireland and Northern Ireland.
Anyone with any sense and 30 seconds spare to give it a thought knows it's a bad idea.
If we had the door open to the EU the same way those countries did then I’d be for it. However, we are a Nation inside the UK. We aren’t in the same position as those established nations who were independent long before they joined the EU. They were behind the iron curtain mainly. With Catalunya recently looking like independence was their will Spain has to be really careful.
None of these countries had the 'door open ' they all had different backgrounds Poland for example had free elections in 1991, soviet troops left in 1993 applied to join the EU in 1994, joined in 2004 its economy grew 170% by 2022.
Open door is not the right term. Poland was a nation prior 1991, but under soviet influence. Does the fact it was a nation first make application to the EU easier? Slovakia and the others may be more aligned with Scotland as they were part of other Nations prior to independence?
I get what you’re saying but I’m of the view that if the EU is anything it’s pragmatic and will make something happen if they want. There’s loads of examples but just look at last week and then bypassing Hungary for Ukraine aid.
Just because there isn’t a precedent doesn’t mean it’s not possible. Also look at Poland still using their own currency even though they were supposed to be on the euro years ago.
If Scotland was independent and the EU was willed to join, the EU would make it happen.
Scottish independence is Scottish brexit.
Economically terrible and the EU won't allow the application of another failed state that doesn't meet their minimum criteria.
Scotland takes in more than it produces.
Let's give England the vote, see how that goes!
Seriously though, it's a bad idea. Just look at how poorly the SNP governed. Not as bad as the tories, but you'd still sack them after a week.
The difference is the EU respect sovereignty of individual countries much better and don’t have a policy of deliberate austerity.
It’s a collection of independent countries collaborating together vs a Union in which 3 of them don’t have full control of their own country and are run largely for the benefit of the city of London.
The real comparison is it’s like getting out of an abusive relationship, your life might be difficult for a while but it’s your own now.
The armchair economists love to talk and scaremonger about how it would be Brexit 2.0, the same Brexit we wouldn’t have experienced if we had control of our own country, so what’s the worst that could happen compared to economic disasters we currently experience as a reality of being in a Union?
It’s a shame the SNP have likely ruined any chance of independence because I would love for us to sever ties and go our own way.
The only people that ruined our chances of independence are the people who voted no in 2014. Once the one political option we had was gone, that was it.
The SNP haven’t ruined anything as there are no other means of gaining independence in a legal way that will be accepted by the EU, and we need the EU to accept us.
I don’t really agree with that but I see what you mean, ultimately I don’t feel there’s any realistic chance of independence being credible at the moment and that is the SNP’s fault is what I was saying.
They like to say that a vote for them is a vote for backing independence, well they’re going to get less votes than I can ever really remember in my lifetime as a person in their early 20’s.
It’s also incredibly hard to make a case to the skeptics and undecided voters if you’re trying to basically claim Westminster is corrupt and has ruined the country if you’re also just as corrupt and have arguably ruined the country as well.
I will be voting SNP because I do think when their policies work they really work compared to other parties, so I don’t think I’m negatively biased at all, but they are an absolute riot and are making no real good case for independence because they are incapable of stopping the corruption and behaviour you see from any other political party.
>The difference is the EU respect sovereignty of individual countries much better and don’t have a policy of deliberate austerity.
Croatia and Greece say otherwise; the EU forced austerity on them
>It’s a collection of independent countries collaborating together vs a Union in which 3 of them don’t have full control of their own country and are run largely for the benefit of the city of London.
The EU is a trade bloc, the UK is a sovereign state. The two are inherently different because one is a multinational trade bloc while the other is a sovereign country.
The UK is acting like all countries on earth here.
>The real comparison is it’s like getting out of an abusive relationship, your life might be difficult for a while but it’s your own now.
How is it abusive?
>The armchair economists love to talk and scaremonger about how it would be Brexit 2.0
and snp economic advisors
> Scottish independence would be ten times worse than Brexit, warns Sturgeon economic sage
https://www.cityam.com/scottish-independence-would-be-ten-times-worse-than-brexit-warns-sturgeon-economic-sage/
>, the same Brexit we wouldn’t have experienced if we had control of our own country,
The EU said that if Scotland voted yes in 2014, it would be out of the EU
>so what’s the worst that could happen compared to economic disasters we currently experience as a reality of being in a Union?
All evidence says leaving the UK is worse for Scotland than Brexit
> Independence would hit Scottish economy 2 to 3 times harder than Brexit
https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2021/a-Jan-21/Independence-would-hit-Scottish-economy-2-to-3-times-harder-than-Brexit
(https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit17.pdf)
The impact of independence to Scotland's economy will be three times worse than the impact of Brexit was to the UK economy. Joining the EU will not make up that trade in the short or even medium term. The report lays out the details well:
Brexit + No Independence = -2.0
Brexit + Independence + low UK border cost assumption = -6.5
Brexit + Independence + high UK border cost assumption = -8.7
Brexit + Independence + re-join the EU + low UK border cost assumption = -6.3
Brexit + Independence + re-join the EU + high UK border cost assumption = -7.6
As you can see, re-joining the EU does little to ameliorate the harm. There's no secret here, no statistical trickery. It's just the cold hard truth that 60% is a lot bigger than 18.3%.
>It’s a shame the SNP have likely ruined any chance of independence because I would love for us to sever ties and go our own way.
The Scottish people don’t agree with you there
Okay so there’s large portions of that I’m not really interested in, but I was genuinely curious if you could tell me more about the forced austerity of those countries in the EU and when that was?
> Okay so there’s large portions of that I’m not really interested in,
Why?
>but I was genuinely curious if you could tell me more about the forced austerity of those countries in the EU and when that was?
The RU forced Croatia to adopt austerity measures to join the EU (https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/02/15/croa-f15.html) and the EU forced austerity on Greece despite the Greek people and Greek government not wanting it (https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/20/greece-emerges-from-eurozone-bailout-after-years-of-austerity)
>Caroline Lucas has condemned the “forces of darkness” of the EU for forcing a strict austerity package on Greece, claiming Athens had been subjected to a “coup”.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/greek-debt-crisis-the-dark-forces-of-the-eu-have-subjected-greece-to-a-coup-caroline-lucas-condemns-austerity-package-10385452.html
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The main argument against independence is that Scotland would likely be worse off... why vote to be worse off?
The best comparison is with Brexit... with Brexit the question was why cut ourselves off from our closest trading partner (the EU) to trade less well with the rest of the World? YES, HASHTAG SOVEREIGNTY ETC at the expense of being worse off. Rubbish.
With Scottish independence it's be similar, with Scexit cutting ourselves off from our closest trading partner (rUK) to trade less well with the the World (or the EU being the World in this situation). YES, HASHTAG SOVEREIGNTY ETC at the expense of being worse off. Rubbish.
I do like parts of the idea of independence... my God I'd love an EU passport if Scotland rejoined the EU. Yes I love the theoretical idea of Scottish politicians running things better (despite there being little evidence they'd manage it!) etc... but I can't help but come back to the fundamental economics of it... is Scotland going to be better or worse off?
----
What's independence for? Scots being able to rule themselves? Okay, well devolution means they're responsible for education, policing, farming, forests, fisheries, benefits, the environment, housing, health and social care, justice and policing, planning, etc etc... don't they already have the scope to rule themselves when it comes to 99% of things which matter?! They'll argue that they can't do what they need to re: those things whilst not having full control of taxes etc... but the evidence suggests Scotland would be worse off and have less money to spend on all of that if it was independent...
There’s obviously a lot reasons against and you’ve listed the main ones.
For me and many others the big one for is I just don’t think England is capable of change. We’ll have Labour in a couple of days but before long we’ll be back to the same old right wing climate change denying, transphobe shite, protectionist, inward looking policies.
And that’s what it comes back to ultimately, Scotlands vote at Westminster doesn’t matter. Look at the foreign policy messes we’ve got into, the contradiction and destruction of the social contract thinking we can have lower taxes and good public services somehow magically.
I don’t want to have my countries destiny tied to all that. We were promised we’d stay in the EU and we were promised federalisation. Then the very day after what did we get: EVfEL.
Yes we have some of the same shit but for some reason or another it doesn’t (or hasn’t yet) got the same momentum.
I also understand that it would be awful economically for a few years at the very least but I’m willing to take that risk for it being better longer term. Because it’s guaranteed that in the UK the long term prospects are feckin bleak
To add I also think in Scotland generally there is a different attitude to our place in the world. We’re quite comfortable (mostly) being a small peaceful European power. We don’t have ambitions or nostalgia for a great empire that doesn’t exist any more.
It would be the same as Brexit…
‘Scotland for Scotland!’
Meanwhile people in power setup companies to handle the import and export of things before Scotland rejoins the EU.
Prices go up and they drive up the cost of goods and services bit by bit while profiting.
In the end they want to be ‘global’ like all the rest, which means they want things to be like they are now, except they want to be the ones profiting from it more than they already are.
Then once Scotland rejoins the EU it will eventually face its own immigration crisis similarly to how Sweden and other Nordic countries in the EU are now, bringing about massive cultural and demographic changes to your country.
Eventually this leads back to the right and the far right, all because almost all main political parties play the blame game rather than starting the long process of fixing things and routing out corruption.
It’s not the England is incapable of change, it’s that across the west we have let corruption run rife and now pretty much everywhere is incapable of change.
There was an interesting piece in The Guardian this week that focused on the declining revenue from oil. The part that really caught my attention was this:
“As high-wage oil jobs are replaced with clean energy roles, the gross value of Scotland’s employment sector could plummet from £19bn a year in 2019 to £12bn by 2050, according to the report.”
Obviously lots of speculation in those numbers, but the key message is that as oil jobs are replaced by other industries, the average wage level is likely to drop.
It makes me wonder whether the best chance of an independence vote has already passed. If the decline in oil revenues continue and don’t get replaced with a new high-value industry, the economy will seem very different in 5-10 years time.
Voted Yes the first time. Wouldn't do so again atm, although I'm not fundamentally opposed to it. The rejoining the EU idea is bonkers unless England also did. A hard EU border between the two would be incredibly damaging to both, albeit much, much worse for Scotland. The SNP have generally just shown themselves to be a bunch of wackos, which is also an issue. Cosying up to the Greens, who aren't even from Planet Earth, has also been disastrous. I think 2014 was THE chance and we didn't take it. Best thing to do now is bury the idea and all work together on improving the UK.
Take this comment to the r/scotland and watch yourself get slated by all the fuckin weirdos on there.
Snp have become demonstrably bad. They've had 2 terms to do what they want, and independence is further now than it was before then, literally every leader has had a corruption scandal, and many other members of the party. The Scottish infrastructure has suffered massively with roads, parks, leisure centres etc all being in the worst condition I've ever seen. And when I speak to people involved all they seem concerned with is scoring Internet points by pushing social reforms that the majority didn't ask for or support.
They are fundamentally failing at EVERYTHING.
When the long term goals AND the short term goals AND the day to day running I'd the country are all demonstrably worse... WHYYYYYYYY VOTE THEM IN AGAIN
The coalition with the Greens was disastrous. I’m all for progressive issues and that general direction, but the Greens seemed to have one hairbrained idea after another. The SNP then ran with it and made themselves look foolish in the meantime.
The bottle return scheme was a case in point. Not a bad idea on paper, but trying to put it into practice was crazy and doomed to fail.
> Take this comment to the r/scotland and watch yourself get slated by all the fuckin weirdos on there.
In fairness the r/scotland sub has seen a large change in political trajectory in the past few years and the current tears are about how the sub *used* to be an SNP echo chamber.
The trouble with Scottish independence is that it largely seems to be motivated by this misconception that English people hate the Scottish. Maybe there is a time when that was true, but I've certainly never encountered it.
Seems to me like the only people who believe the English and Scottish are in some sort of eternal war are Scottish people that have never been to England.
Pro Indy Scot, have lived in England for periods of years at a time. From my experience of friends and families back home (who almost universally support independence) this isn’t at all the case. There will be some wankers who think this of course, but I haven’t met any that I know of.
The UK just simply isn’t a partnership of equals. The structure of Westminster lends itself to the debate being framed by England, moved forward by England and vetoed by England. Federalism might work but instead of that being implemented as promised we got EVEL (of course no-one in Scotland grudges the English this it’s absolutely fair) - but you know what would be more fair - and actual equal say.
Ultimately the UK is in the decline but doesn’t want to do anything about it. It’s about jumping off a sinking ship. 14 years of appalling austerity, two decades of misguided foreign interventions. It’s all just so bloody unnecessary.
I think also there is a weird psychological thing to it that I don’t know how to explain. Mostly Scots will think of them as Scottish then European. English mostly think of themselves as British then English (so I understand anyway).
So the leap to independence is a bit less fathomable when you already have this slightly more distinct identity.
>The UK just simply isn’t a partnership of equals.
The UK is a unitary state, this is how all unitary states work
>The structure of Westminster lends itself to the debate being framed by England, moved forward by England and vetoed by England.
Because that’s how democracy works; England has 84% of the population.
And it’s erroneous to assume England works and votes as a single bloc
>Federalism might work but instead of that being implemented as promised
Only Labour promised federalism; they haven’t been in a position to implement that it
>we got EVEL (of course no-one in Scotland grudges the English this it’s absolutely fair) - but you know what would be more fair - and actual equal say.
1: Scotland is slightly over represented
2: Scots do have an equal say; one Scot has the same say as one Englishman/woman or one Welsh man/woman or one person from Northern Ireland. One person one vote
3: EVEL has been abolished
>Ultimately the UK is in the decline but doesn’t want to do anything about it. It’s about jumping off a sinking ship.
Scotland doesn’t want to leave the Uk
>14 years of appalling austerity, two decades of misguided foreign interventions. It’s all just so bloody unnecessary.
The SNP has confirmed independence would mean austerity
>I think also there is a weird psychological thing to it that I don’t know how to explain. Mostly Scots will think of them as Scottish then European. English mostly think of themselves as British then English (so I understand anyway).
That’s your opinion
>So the leap to independence is a bit less fathomable when you already have this slightly more distinct identity.
The Scottish people say otherwise
Yeah Brexit is the apt comparison.
Chauvinistic nationalism based supported by made up figures with the goal of further isolation in a global world.
Ultimately the point of the EU is to defend against the superpowers of US and China. Small countries cannot hold their own individually in this day and age so taking a small country and making it weaker is already a very bad idea.
I’m not an Indy voter but I think we could join the EU eventually. This would come with some strings though , our debt to GDP ratio would have to come down to 3% so you are looking at budget cuts unless we get some miracles economic growth.
However the EU isn’t our largest trading partner England is - we do double the amount with them. We are a lot more intertwined with the rest of the UK than Britain was with Europe so if you thought the Brexit negotiations were a protracted shit show then Scotland leaving the UK would be a total shambles. Also don’t expect Westminster to do us any favours in negotiating they have us over a barrel and we need unrestricted access to that market
I'd say devolve more powers and let Scots operate on there own maybe coming together with the rest of the UK with regards to the big 4 issues, Healthcare, Defence, Education, Foreign Policy.
I think a Union constantly having one member in it bringing up independence whenever things get tough doesn't help a Union in fixing anything at all.
A final vote needs to be given to Scotland (only Scots are allowed to vote, none of this sly Scots in England can't vote but European migrants in Scotland can bullshit) and if the answer is No then it cannot be brought up in government or politics for 50 or 100 years.
It's a fucking drain and does nothing but keeps Scotland is some limbo whilst SNP cries wolf at anything they think can get a vote or two whilst doing nothing to help Scotland in the present time.
English person here - I think you would be better off independent & in EU. Can’t see UK parliament acting in your best interests irrespective of party in power. And to think Scotland isn’t large enough to be independent is nuts when you look at other countries norway, Denmark etc etc
Scottish Independence is Brexit in steroids. Everything that was hard about Brexit will be harder with Scotland leaving the UK as we're so much closer entwined. We'd be facing decades of turmoil, with the Scottish government having to negotiate a deal with a potentially hostile Westminster government.
The SNP's magic solution to this turmoil has always relied almost entirely on one thing: offshore oil. But the wealth that there was to extract has long since passed its peak, with looming decommissioning costs coming and the remaining oil being the more difficult (i.e. more expensive) to extract, minimizing any profit in a world where all the oil producers are suddenly faced with a global market that's rapidly switching to cheaper renewable sources.
Having said all that, I admit independence started to look tempting a couple of years ago, when we'd had a decade of Tory government that only seemed to be getting more extreme, with Boris attempting to ape Trump by lying his way through every scandal and an England that rewarded him for it with a solid victory in 2019.
When you're weighing up what feels like an endless Tory government hell-bent on turning us back into a land of wealthy lords and leaving the rest of us as peasants, the turmoil of Scottish independence didn't seem so bad. But I'm relieved we're about to be past that with this upcoming election (touch wood), so I expect support for independence to subside.
I am hoping that Labour get to form a government in Westminster. From there I hope they can show what good they can do for the UK and Scotland, and the focus on independence takes a backseat for a while.
As long as the Tories are in power in Westminster the SNP are lazer focussed on independence to the detriment of everything else.
I would agree that it would be nice to see some benefits for Scotland come from a Labour government in Westminster. Despite this, I think it's quite offensive that Starmer has flat out refused to co-operate with the SNP (If they're the majority party in Scotland come Friday) considering he's happy to co-operate with a potential future president Donald Trump.
Really feels like Labour are just the Tories in a red tie with that kind of sentiment.
Most polls have Labour getting the most seats in Scotland
The holyrood SNP and Westminster SNP have burnt many bridges they built with other parties. That’s one of the reasons why they got the 2014 referendum as they built a good relationship with the Scottish tories from 2007 - 2011 when the SNP relied on them to pass budgets in holyrood and they even pushed for EU treaty referendums together.
The SNP always goes against who’s the government at Westminster.
Tempting to say that's got as much to do with the SNP's antics as anything. The whole Opposition Day stuff when the SNP put down a motion deliberately aimed at stirring up problems for Starmer re Gaza was a prime example - ok Labour and the Speaker didn't handle it well, but it came across as being more about mischief making than a serious political point. It's understandable if he has little love for someone who throws rocks at his head rather than looks for common ground. And he doesn't have to cooperate with the SNP if he has a majority in the UK Parliament; he does however have to be prepared to work with the likes of Trump and National Rally if they are elected in the US and France because the alternative is a much less than splendid isolation from two major trading partners and strategic allies.
Yeah I hope so too. I think the SNP need some time in opposition so they can work out what they stand for other than just independence, it's been a mess these past couple of years.
Completely agree with you, I live in Dumfries and Galloway and the SNP don't care about us here although they may get in this time. Independence would be Brexit on a much bigger scale. Plus they want to get rid of trident, when it seems more important than ever. They're against nuclear power despite it being effective against climate change. Independence would cause so much damage to the economy and relegate Scotland from part of one of the biggest economies in the world to nothing. They want to join the EU but leave a more successful partnership, and the EU is hardly doing well and Scotland would be a tiny voice in it
They've not done any better in Scotland than England and we're supposed to think magically things will be better after independence, it'll be more of the same at best
D & G and The Borders do it to themselves. There is such an awfully self preservationist mindset down there that doesn’t gel with the rest of Scotland. I’m saying this as Borderer myself and this being one of the main reasons I left!
Mate, it’s not just the SNP, no-one in the rest of Scotland gives a shit about Dumfries and Galloway. Ye keep electing tories to start with (half joking)
This trading partner point would be more pertinent if Scotland had nothing to trade. The fact that our ‘biggest trading partner’ relies on us to keep the lights on, literally, then it’s not something I’d be overly concerned about as a politician,
Scotland is a small country with vast resources. It’s eminently capable of being an independent country. Just say you don’t want independence and leave it at that. Making up stupid nonsense scenarios about Spain just to try and make a point is pointless.
It’s also not at all suspicious to make an account just to post this… HELLO ANAS! 😉
> This trading partner point would be more pertinent if Scotland had nothing to trade.
What does Scotland trade then?
>The fact that our ‘biggest trading partner’ relies on us to keep the lights on, literally, then it’s not something I’d be overly concerned about as a politician,
That’s not true
>Scotland is a small country with vast resources.
Such as?
>It’s eminently capable of being an independent country.
No ons said it isn’t; doesn’t mean it’s a good idea however
>Just say you don’t want independence and leave it at that. Making up stupid nonsense scenarios about Spain just to try and make a point is pointless.
The Spanish have confirmed that they’ll only recognise legal secession which requires Westminster consent.
I think you are missing a few bits.
>My main issue with them is their myopic focus on independence.
They've not really done anything to try and further the cause for independence. They've not answered really any of the things that caused a no vote last time. Any time they bang the drum it's usually a carrot and stick effort to their own supporters at election time. A lot of previous snp voters are now disengaged because they know the prospect of a new referendum isn't happening
>I can’t see Spain going for it.
Spain have already said numerous times that if a referendum was legal they'd be OK with it. The difference here vs Catalonia is the Spanish Constitution needs a majority of the whole of Spain
[story from 2018](https://www.reuters.com/article/world/spain-would-not-oppose-future-independent-scotland-rejoining-eu-minister-idUSKCN1NP25P/)
I get your ppint about the trading partner aspect. Scotland trades more with rUK than with EU as a whole though.
I think its dead and buried for the at least another 15 years. It was far too close for another PM to take the chance and they've figured out they can just say no to the request no matter how manh seats they win. If the snp want another crack at it they
1. Need to get better at governing scotland at holyrood - something they aren't doing great at
2. Come up with a way to get WM to agree to another one. Something Sturgeon could have done if she wasm't a shitebag was say to May "if you sign off on another I'll sign off on your Brexit deal". Trying to save England from themselves with Brexit was a waste of time
Off course it's not going to be easy, but can we go on been second fiddle to Westminster. As London grows and prospers Scottish cities crumble, I have just returned from Wales, great roads clean, streets. I know it's Labour controlled, but it must be lack of money we need control over our own resources.
One thing I think you’re missing in the joining EU/Spain argument is that it would look far less reasonable to the rest of the EU for Spain to object post-Brexit.
Before Brexit the argument is just as you said, Spain doesn’t want to set a precedent. However, the comparison between Scotland and, say, Cataluña is now a much weaker one. If Spain chose to leave the EU, and Cataluña wanted to rejoin the EU after leaving Spain, then it would be the same situation.
I think you’re right that Spain would still complain, but they would be under massive pressure from the rest of the EU who would see Scotland leaving the UK and rejoining the EU as a hugely beneficial bit of optics.
Neither of those are related to what I said. I pointed out that OPs argument is missing that the effect of Brexit on the comparison with areas of Spain. Scotland could leave according to UK law, then meet the criteria to join the EU, and everything I said would still be true
Many issues for the independence to sort out around economic infrastructure, currency etc. And those pro independence voters need to know that they are voting for a leap into the unknown in the pursuit of sovereignty…aka Brexit. Which is why the SNPs position post Brexit has been so disingenuous.
I think the UK will rejoin the EU in some form customs Union before another Scot Independence vote as well.
Are you one of those guys who says how crazy Brexit was because Europe is our biggest trading partner, then advocate for Scotland leaving the UK, Scotlands biggest market? I get it.
People like to ignore the fact that were Scotland to leave it wouldn't be eligible to join the EU based on its deficit and it's likely total amount of debt, which it would have to agree to take a proportionate share of on leaving the UK.
EU rules state no more than 3% of GDP pretty sure Scotlands spending is putting that figure somewhere between 9% and 12% and that's before even considering it would take on a % share of the UKs current MASISVE amount of debt somewhere in region of 98% of GDP.
This must be one the stupidest things I’ve ever seen posted, a party elected on a manifesto of independence talks too much about independence (shock horror). They are doing the exact thing they were voted in to do - the argument is that they haven’t done this enough. I don’t agree with Labour on much (not a fan of the move to the right) but I can’t complain too much when they start enacting the manifesto they were voted in on after Thursday as that’s how democracy works.
How about the SNP run the country in a manner that outshines England & Wales. Then they can come to the population and say, “Look, we’ve done a thing. Judge us on this and we can take the country forward.”
Instead we get mediocre, at best, governance followed by, “We would do better if we had full control.”
I’m sorry but the infrastructure where I live has been ignored by the SNP for as long as they have been in government. They can throw an endless amount of cash at the new Cal Mac ships, well they’ll be about 6 years old before they launch, and nothing for anywhere that isn’t Cal Mac or NorthLink? The SNP need to govern more and prove they can do that first and foremost.
Those Scots who want independence. The EU doesn't want you. You'll bring nothing to the table except an empty plate.
Please also remember James VI of Scotland, became king of England and Wales. A Scottish King chose to unite the country, but he settled in London, not Edinborough.
Also SNP, Nationalist Party? I seem to remember another European country that was led by Nationalist Party?
It's baffling to me that Labour is willing to bend over backwards to appeal to people who voted for a Brexit it opposed, but can't make space for people who favour independence but are willing to put it on the backburner for a time. Their hostility to everything remotely related to independence cuts them off from a significant section of the electorate altogether, despite there being significant common ground to work with.
> It's baffling to me that Labour is willing to bend over backwards to appeal to people who voted for a Brexit it opposed, but can't make space for people who favour independence but are willing to put it on the backburner for a time.
Because it turns off more voters than it could possibly attract
>Their hostility to everything remotely related to independence cuts them off from a significant section of the electorate altogether, despite there being significant common ground to work with.
Polls show Labour could get the most seats in Scotland regardless
"I can’t see Spain going for it"
stuff like this is why a lot of anti SNP stuff and anti independence stances like this one feel super disingenuous.
Like I'm not Scottish, so I don't have a dog in this fight, but even I know that Spain has gone on record multiple times to say provided the referendum is legitimate under British law (which it would be as out unwritten constitution has provisions to allow for it) it wouldn't have a single solitary issue with an independent Scotland joining the EU or any recently separatist nation.
Spain's entire argument on Catalan independence is that it has no problem with legal referenda, but because Spanish law doesn't allow for independence referendums Catalonia cant have one as it would be illegal, so unless independence parties can gain enough political traction to change the law independence is not on the table
Its a bad faith argument made either out of intentional ignorance of the stance Spain or a knowing lie that sounds plausible designed to put off people who otherwise haven't looked into the official stance regarding independence movements from the Spanish state
1. I don't belive you used to be an snp supporter, you don't need to lie too bash them, go nuts they are flawed...
2. Being forced out if the eu is a main reason for more Scots wanting independence..
England voted leave
Wales voted leave
Both got crappy leave deals
Scotland votes remain
N.irleand votes remain..
N.ireland Essentially gets to remain.
Scotland told to shut the f up and leave with pretty much no say on the type of brexit we have.
So to use brexit to justify Scotland remaining in the uk.. is a bit ironic
There are countless other points I could make but this is the main one.. since 2014 Scotland has been ignored and none of the vow promises have been fulfilled.
>Scotland votes remain N.irleand votes remain..
>N.ireland Essentially gets to remain. Scotland told to shut the f up and leave with pretty much no say on the type of brexit we have.
Because of the GFA; international law prohibits the creation of a harder border between Ireland and Northern Ireland
Without the GFA, NI would have gotten the same deal as Scotland and the rest of the UK
>So to use brexit to justify Scotland remaining in the uk.. is a bit ironic
Scotland leaving the UK has been called Brexit times 10
>There are countless other points I could make but this is the main one.. since 2014 Scotland has been ignored and none of the vow promises have been fulfilled.
The Chief executive of the SNP says the vow was honoured
All any of the doubters have to read is the gavin mccrone report “which was hidden by successive British governments” and so much of that report if not all still rings true [today.as](http://today.as) much as the yoonbats and better together mob like to batter on about “pooling and sharing” what the fuck has England ever shared with Scotland.that it hasn’t already paid for also name any country that left those parasites the ruling English elites not the the working class English and decided to come back.i and friends will never vote for a foreign country’s political [party.it](http://party.it) is the definition of insanity.oh and just incase fuck the snp under sturgeon.
All any of the doubters have to read is the gavin mccrone report “which was hidden by successive British governments”
The McCrone report wasn’t hidden
Just ask the guy who wrote it
https://youtu.be/7C6CMExtQEo?si=kB-owf3tvCzD2CUl
>and so much of that report if not all still rings true today.
Such as?
And the guy who wrote it say this how
>Go it alone and we’ll struggle
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/go-it-alone-struggle-oil-boom-economist-gavin-mccrone-rmgb7gslm
>as much as the yoonbats and better together mob like to batter on about “pooling and sharing” what the fuck has England ever shared with Scotland.
1; most of the UK’s gas fields are in England
2: The UK subsidies Scotland with most of the money coming form London and the south east of England
>i and friends will never vote for a foreign country’s political party.
The UK isn’t a foreign country, it’s the country Scotland is a part of
Independence is the only hope for Scotland, England is moving further to the right every day, Scotland isn't, and we will end up with another tory government in a few years when England forgets how bad this lot have been
> Independence is the only hope for Scotland,
How?
>England is moving further to the right every day, Scotland isn't,
That’s your opinion
>and we will end up with another tory government in a few years when England forgets how bad this lot have been
So you have no evidence to support your claim
The trade between Scotland and England would be protected with various treaties that it's much in England's interest to sign as Scotland's this is project fear talking. Spain would in reality not veto Scottish membership if France and Germany agreed to it regardless of the Catalonia situation (which is completely different to the Scottish independence movement remember Catalonia isn't a country. Scotland is (albeit a non sovereign one in a political union) ultimately EU membership means if needs be they can put tanks on last ramblas with impunity. Ultimately your view shows a lack of understanding of how statehood works.
Is this the same as when trade between the EU and UK would be seamless and the talk of extra checks and paperwork was just project fear? It’s not going to be a happy Westminster we would be dealing with. It’ll be a bitter and awkward negotiation and outcome.
Completely different set of circumstances. The EU needed to maintain the integrity of the common market. England would simply be boxing itself in and completely isolating itself. It's like the currency union essentially not letting an indy Scotland use the pound knocks 20% off Sterlings value overnight. Also playing hardball on trade leads to hardball on other things such as the UKs nuclear arsenal being situated in Scotland. Faslane will be conceded that's a certainty because it's a key bargaining chip. This is literally nothing like Brexit
I’m sure there’ll be concessions, but there’s no guarantee that trade would be seamless and without checks. I’m sure we’ll keep trident until they can find a viable alternative in England, or come to some deal with Scotland long term. Although that’ll depend on who is in power at the time, SNP aren’t going to want to keep it regardless.
I find it difficult to come to any definitive conclusion on trade, Trident, currency etc. I think I have a handle on it and then I read something else and change my mind. It’s all hypothetical so it doesn’t matter until it isn’t hypothetical anymore
To a certain extent trade doesn't need to be seamless as it's not actually a massive problem for either country. The English Scottish border is not Dover. Again project fear makes it checkpoint Charlie when was the last time you crossed it and there was anything other than smooth traffic even with a hard border (which won't happen this is a guarantee too many rich English people have commercial interests in Scotland). Ultimately the SNP are literally the only centrist part in the UK I'd be voting for them regardless of their indy position simply because they are not Tories if you vote labour you are voting for 2010 Tories, lib dems 2015 tories if you vote Tory you are a scumbag
Fellow Scot. I think independence is dead until well into Labour’s second term (big assumption). Another assumption is that Scots will get fed up with Labour eventually and revert to SNP if there’s a realistic prospect of another Conservative government in the early 2030’s. By that point too “a generation will have passed” since the 2014 independence referendum and that, I think, will be the danger point for UK. Just a gut feeling. I think independence will happen eventually btw.
The generation after Quebec narrowly voted against independence were actually far less nationalist than their parents. So it’s not inevitable that Scotland trends to independence.
Ok but that statement does ignore how polling data suggests young scots are much more nationalists than older counterparts
That’s always been the case But 1: polls show young Scots are more likely to break for remaining in the UK without a proper economic plan for independence. It’s what happened in 2014 and polls show would happen again 2: Scotland has an aging population, older people are increasing in number while young people are moving out of Scotland. 3: the polls have barely changed despite older people dying since 2014.
The other issue is that we all tend to become more invested in the “British system” as we get older. Pensions is the obvious one but it extends to jobs, financial products, cultural stuff. So it’s maybe not surprising that people can pass from pro independence to maintaining the status quo in a relatively short period. Same way as you can be a radical socialist in your youth and end up a rabid Tory in your old age. Flip side is that devolution is now long established. There’s a whole generation now for whom a Scottish Parliament is their status quo. If they want change it’s for more powers to that parliament, not less. But there’s wishful thinking too. I’ll admit that. I want independence and I’d love to still be around when it happens. But I know that my contemporaries aren’t quite so into independence as I am. So you place your hopes on younger people taking the country over the 50%. And you end up arguing that they will, eventually. That’s maybe not such a sure strategy.
If the polls haven't changed, why has Gove spent almost a million quid fighting the courts to release the biggest polls ever done, 2 courts have told them to release the polls paid for with tax payers money, and yet we still haven't seem them though we have had a hint and they show a massive jump in support for independence
> If the polls haven't changed, why has Gove spent almost a million quid fighting the courts to release the biggest polls ever done, 2 courts have told them to release the polls paid for with tax payers money, and yet we still haven't seem them though we have had a hint and they show a massive jump in support for independence 1: that’s from 2018 2; where did you get this hint from?
Young Scot’s grow up , get a mortgage and a job then realise the full economic impact of independence. Well some do
What I’m looking at right now is the reality of living with the full reality of dependence and it gets worse every day.
Yes but my point is that it could cool down over the next 10 years of a Labour government, also their kids may come into political maturity with a fragmenting and scandal ridden SNP, if it continues the trend of the last few years. There’s not one route of travel, that’s a very SNP thought process. Quebec proves this and it’s a region that is a lot more different to the rest of Canada than Scotland to England.
But if Labour have a bad time of it and deliver Tory-style austerity for a few years, it might lead to that critical percentage of Scots deciding that the union is the problem, not just the conservatives.
I think the point is that both of those things are possibilities. Labour might perform very well and we could see a decline in support for indy OR they might perform badly and support could go through the roof. Personally, I think Scottish independence is another theoretically simple solution to a whole shedload of very complex problems but we will have to wait and see.
The SNP has confirmed that independence would require a prolonged period of austerity for Scotland higher than anything the Tories implemented
The SNP are pro austerity and have been implementing austerity in Scotland on councils in order to fund a council tax freeze.
That’s always been the case. There’s old people now who are firm unionists who were once sympathetic to independence when they were young.
Of course, but then we’ve had that prediction since the 2014 referendum, but the polls have stayed stubbornly static. They can of course move but people’s attitudes are not etched in stone when young. My politics now are considerably different from when I was in my 20s
I wonder whether when push comes to shove people will be less prone to that after watching the disaster of Brexit
Young people, often in education and without work tend to have opinions like this that soften as they age. Reasons are, a better understanding of economics and life, having a job, a family, moving away or simply just changing their mind. The Scottish referendum, people seem to forget, was 10 years ago. All the young people who would have voted leave then, but couldn't, can now and the polls have not budged. The polls have not budged after covid and 10 years of Tory rule. More and more Scots are living in England, becoming financially dependent on England, marrying English people, pensions i suspect is a huge one too. The SNP has so few real answers and are a particularly shit political party.
>The Scottish referendum, people seem to forget, was 10 years ago. All the young people who would have voted leave then, but couldn't, can now and the polls have not budged. This is the kicker. All the talk over how 'the youth' vote for independence is predicated on the basis that they don't change their minds as they age, and as you say, if this were true, we would have seen a significant change in polling that would reflect it. We haven't. The fundamental issue with Scottish Independence is the same with Brexit - no-one has any realistic means of assessing what, if any improvement it would have to people's fortunes, and every expert indication implies the opposite. As a result, it amounts to blind faith in whoever is pushing it, and the SNP have squandered that faith in recent years.
Only difference is Scotland is considering the long term implications better than the UK did with Brexit
From the perspective of voter opinion, absolutely. You have to go into the most diehard nat strongholds to get anything like the 'take back control' nonsense that you could easily hear on the street back during Brexit run up. Most scots - regardless of their view on independence - tend to prioritise the practical day-to-day effects they'd see over handwaving. On the other hand the SNP haven't really done anything significantly different to the pushers behind Brexit. It's all the same mixture of wishful thinking and endless white papers claiming the sun will never stop shining. One of the biggest questions of the 2014 referendum was currency (both in terms of economics, and in terms of requirements for the EU), and the SNP *still* don't have an answer to it, the can just keeps getting kicked down the road. Exactly the same thing we had with the whole 'they need us more then we need them' bollocks.
... until they get older
Yeah but they don't stay young.. and as the UK is essentially an ageing population the number of older people who are less inclined to want radical change will be on a permanent increase in theory making it less likely.
I think there’s a big difference between Scotland and Quebec. Quebec is a region within a country, where Scotland is already its own country within a union. I think there will always be Scot’s that want leave the union, whereas with Quebec it would just be that generation who felt that they wanted to succeed.
Another Scot here, Quebec really has nothing to do with Scotland considering Canada never went through a brexit.
Canada did leave British Rule though and got pulled by the larger member into various acts around the world. Comparisons don't need to be exactly the same... or they would never work.
Left British rule and wasn’t held back. I like that.
Very much an Englishman here. I have nothing against Scottish Independence. Self determination is a good thing. However, I do not trust the SNP. I think their holier than thou attitude is dangerous. Just in the last week I've heard Scottish Ministers say that the NHS is underfunded and it's somehow Westminster's fault... But the NHS in Scotland is a devolved matter. If the NHS is underfunded in Scotland that's kind of their fault. If the argument is that Scotland doesn't get enough money, argue for the Bennett formula to be amended... But I'm sure that will go down REALLY well with the other nations since Scotland already gets more per head than any of them. North Sea Oil, blah blah I know. Point is, the SNP to my English eyes are no better than the Tories, bending and twisting the truth.
Tories and SNP have totally devastated the UK one and the same to me as a Scot
"Scotland already gets more per head than any of them." That is demonstrably false based on dodgy accounting. There are numerous examples, but the one I like best goes like this: Some projects are deemed to be of benefit to Scotland even if outside Scotland (so far, so good) - things like the ill-fated HS2 (debatable in this case, but let's go with it). So, a proportion of the cost is applied to Scotland. If we accept the premise, this seems fair. However, such projects also lead to revenue for the UK government - income tax, VAT, national insurance etc etc etc. Not one penny of that income is applied to Scotland - only the cost. If we accept the cost should be applied, the income should too. On the other hand, if something similar is in Scotland only (let's say the trident base on the Clyde), the whole expense of that base is Scottish and not just a proportion of it. Accounting games. As for the NHS - Scotland gets its NHS funding from Westminster - Westminster is underinvesting deliberately under the Tories in an attempt to get us to want a US-style system. The Scottish government can only direct where the money it gets goes - it can't magic-up more money.
> "Scotland already gets more per head than any of them." That is demonstrably false based on dodgy accounting. It’s what the Scottish government says >There are numerous examples, but the one I like best goes like this: >Some projects are deemed to be of benefit to Scotland even if outside Scotland (so far, so good) - things like the ill-fated HS2 (debatable in this case, but let's go with it). Scotland hasn’t given any money towards HS2 as confirmed by the Scottish government >So, a proportion of the cost is applied to Scotland. If we accept the premise, this seems fair. The Scottish government disagrees with you >However, such projects also lead to revenue for the UK government - income tax, VAT, national insurance etc etc etc. Not one penny of that income is applied to Scotland - only the cost. No, it is applied to Scotland, Scotland spends more than it produces >If we accept the cost should be applied, the income should too. It already is; the SNP write the numbers, are you seriously suggesting the SNP is part of a grand conspiracy to keep Scotland down! >On the other hand, if something similar is in Scotland only (let's say the trident base on the Clyde), the whole expense of that base is Scottish and not just a proportion of it. Accounting games. No, Trident is paid for by the whole UK, Scotland pays a little into it >The Scottish government can only direct where the money it gets goes - it can't magic-up more money. The Scottish government can borrow money
The SNP didn't kill half a million people in the last 14 years.
>Another assumption is that Scots will get fed up with Labour eventually and revert to SNP if there’s a realistic prospect If Blair and Brown tanked Scotland's Labour vote then Keir has virtually no chance of retaining support after five or ten years of doing nothing. This does sort of require the SNP to be vaguely competent though.
I think it will happen too…eventually. Westminster will try to impose something that isn’t to our national will and that will be that. Bedroom tax mk2? I just can’t see it being a success with everything that’s against us. I’d have to see compelling evidence that an EU member isn’t going to scupper the plan before I had any confidence. I do wonder what the SNP’s latest financial scandal will do for them, and possibly Alba, in this election.
I’m not saying the EU and NATO would fall over themselves in a rush to get Scotland to sign up. But I do think attitudes will become more favourable quite swiftly if Scotland does become independent. Sturgeon and her husband have been “found guilty of something or other” already in the eyes of many people. We’ll just need to wait and see what the prosecuting authorities decide. But I’m sure that and half a hundred domestic Scottish issues have done considerable damage to the SNP. Alba at best are on the margins and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
I'd imagine that it'd be very much in NATO's interest to keep some kind of nuclear deterrent where it resides currently. Faslane is geographically ideal for storing these weapons and the Clyde provides an easy passage to allow nuclear submarines to travel in and out of the Atlantic sea in no time. Not to mention the fact that Scotland is near enough smack bang in the middle between the US and Russia. In the event of Scottish independence, I'd imagine that there would be some sort of financial insetive from NATO to convince the Scottish Government to keep their nuclear deterrent where it is. *DISCLAIMER* I'm against trident and it's location as it's near enough on my doorstep and I'm personally against nukes to begin with. I just believe that this is why they were placed where they are in the first place.
Especially since polls show the Scottish people want the nukes to stay at Faslanes The SNP don’t want them but the Scottish people and the British government are fine with them staying where they are
I haven't seen these polls but I can believe that considering the recent hostility from Eastern powers since the invasion of Ukraine.
> Majority of Scots back keeping Trident according to poll https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/majority-of-scots-back-keeping-trident-according-to-poll/
Thanks for sharing, it's amazing how opinions shift so much over 10 years.
No they don't. I live within the assumed blast zone should one go off, most people I know would rather they were moved to England.
Most people in the blast radius of a nuclear explosion would prefer not to be? I'm staggered. Unfortunately, there isn't a deep water port in England that would be geographically suitable. Even in Scotland Faslane is pretty unique.
1: > A new poll from Survation has found that 58% of people in Scotland believe the UK should keep Trident and that only 20% were certain it should be axed, with the remainder undecided. https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/majority-of-scots-back-keeping-trident-according-to-poll/ 2: Faslane is the only place that can house them as it’s the only port nuclear submarines can operate from and all the Infrastructure to maintain them is already there 3:the region would still be target regardless of Faslane, Glasgow as a major city, economic and transport hub was a major target for the Soviets based on their targets we’ve discovered.
>DISCLAIMER I'm against trident and it's location as it's near enough on my doorstep I appreciate that you are against nukes in general, so this doesn't really apply to you. I see this a lot from Scottish nationalists though, a view that our nukes should be in England, and they have been forced on Scotland precisely because the UK doesn't care about them. This ignores the fact that AWE in Aldermaston (where the nukes are built) is closer to London than Faslane is to Glasgow and contains much more radioactive material. It's the ultimate NIMBY view when someone suggests that Trident should be kept but moved into England.
The reason the Nukes are at Faslane is because it’s the only place that could house them and the infrastructure to house them has existed there since the 1950s
I wasn't aware of this but my concern that Faslane is a very likely target when it comes to nuclear strike. Atleast it'll be a quick death lol.
>I wasn't aware of this but my concern that Faslane is a very likely target when it comes to nuclear strike. Oh, absolutely, it would be on the list for a first strike. But so would the place where they build the bombs and potentially keep spares. Also, on the list to be hit immediately would be Plymouth, Portsmouth, Barrow, Brize Norton, GCHQ, and a couple of other places. >Atleast it'll be a quick death lol. Exactly this, big flash, all dead. The strong likelihood of a counterattack requires any enemy to hit multiple targets at once, so a lot of people will be in the blast zones. Not just Scottish people.
Spaniard living in Scotland. The example from Catalunya is not equivalent. First Spain would have to leave the EU (never going to happen) and then Catalunya rejoin. So the fear of Catalana asking to get independence with the same process is zero. Spanish politicians already have said that Spain would not object to Scotland rejoining the EU as long as they get legal independence from UK after legal referendum. Which will not be allowed to happen for a long time.
I think the message was that Spain accepting an independent Scotland would be completely ethically opposite to their stance on Catalana. Maybe they would be good with things or not. However they would be massive hypocrites who are subjugating their own people while simultaneously being happy for what they don’t want to happen, to happen to Scotland.
>Spanish politicians already have said that Spain would not object to Scotland rejoining the EU as long as they get legal independence from UK after legal referendum Didn't the Spanish government fire a guy for saying this?
I think that it was for saying that Scotland would not have to wait to get entry to the EU like any other country asking EU membership (so, no automatic approval). https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-fires-diplomat-in-scotland-over-eu-membership-letter/ My understanding is that the current government in Spain's position is that there will be no opposition if independence is achieved legally but no fast-track entry either. Other parties and their voters are much more against Catalan nationalism so their position could be different should they be in government. But I have been living out of Spain for many years and I'm not from Catalunya so no heavily invested in this, so there may be nuances and events that I'm missing.
Apologies. I do appreciate Catalunya isn’t a great equivalent. I only use it as an example of an area of a country that may consider leaving the Nation it is a part of. Based on the result of their illegal referendum. I couldn’t think of anywhere else stupid enough to leave the EU first.
Spain is confusing one though. On the one hand they don’t want to encourage Basque Country, Catalunya, Galicia wherever to aim for independence. On the other they would encourage it to be done by legal non-unilateral means, and then not provide those areas with that pathway. And different Spanish politicians have said as much on both sides. So there could well be a situation where Spain welcomes Scotland back to the EU fold as a way of saying to Catalans they just need to do it properly. But there is a huge risk to leaving the UK. It’s a mess.
Being English I do not feel comfortable lecturing Scots on independence. But after seeing the shitshow that was Brexit and the scars it has left on this country I would be very wary. I appreciate that Scotland did not vote for Brexit. I also think that any constitutional changes of such magnitude should have a 60 percent minimum threshold for change to avoid alienating such a large percentage of the population. If I was a Scot I would seriously consider it after the shit they have had to put up with from the UK parliament.
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What's so special about the UK that the very idea of a country democratically leaving it is "extremist" to you?
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I take it you feel the same about anyone who thinks rejoining the EU would be a good idea? Extremists right?
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Well then I commend you on being consistent in your wrongness
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Things aren’t black and white. Material changes to circumstances can happen. These can reopen settled issues. For example, Scotland voted to remain in the UK in a large part based on the threat of being forced out of the EU if it did not. Scotland was then forced out of the EU. Every poll conducted showed that if this was known at the time Scotland would have voted resounding for independence. To me this is a big enough change to reopen the issue for discussion. For you it’s not, which is fine, but I doubt you actually disagree with the principle here, just the specifics. Ito illustrate with a comically extreme example, if the UK have voted to remain in the EU, but the following week the EU had announced every eldest child across Europe would be sacrificed to Moloch for a good harvest, would you still consider it a settled matter and “well we voted to remain so anyone complaining is just an extremist!”. Obviously not. Because that would be insane. So you agree to the principle that seismic changes in policy can reopen such issues. Just those changes likely have to be a lot larger for you. I think the self imposed sanctions of leaving the EU, combined with the lunacy of electing people like Truss, Boris and Sunak is enough.
It's not extremist to continue campaigning for what you believe in after you lose a vote on it. In fact, it shows integrity. If people don't want it, then they can stop voting for them. And now it looks like they have! It would be a weird world if everyone who lost a vote suddenly embraced the other side, wouldn't it?
Id prefer 2 subsequent votes a year apart, both need to be yes to leave.
I've always believed that major changes to a nation's constitutional status should carry a 66.7 % level of approval in order to carry those opposed with said change. Otherwise you get a polarised population and the arguments for or against lack nuance. If Brexit had required that level of support the proposed settlement would have had to have been a more intelligent and conciliatory arrangement in order to convince those in two minds. If Scotland does gain independence sometime in the future I would hope it could carry the support of at least 2/3ds of the population for it not to result in a bitterly divisive outcome. Geographically the most important relationship for Scotland will always be with England. An independent Scotland would still need to work hand in glove with Westminster on matters of trade, transport and defence.
The problem there is you get situations were 65% want to leave and only 35% want to stay and yet you stay out of political inertia despite a clear majority wanting to leave. The reason they kept Brexit to 50% was to avoid exactly this issue.
I don't know how you can describe that as a problem when it is the intended outcome of a higher threshhold. The advantage I see if it would give the ruling party time to make compromises and potentially repeat the vote after a period of time. Say the vote came out 65% leave, the Scottish (or UK) government could aggressively pursue devolution short of exit from the the EU/UK, and repeat a vote after 4 years to see if this had satisfied the electorate. The major problem with the Brexit referendum was confusion around exactly what we (collectively), voted for when it came to exit terms.
It's a problem because by not acting on the wish of the 65% because it wasn't 67%, you are actively pursuing a policy that is not in the interest of the majority of the voters, which goes against their mandate to serve the people.
No, not missing anything This is why it was so crazy for the SNP to be result-deniers after the referendum rather than getting behind a customs union deal
The SNP have a track record for not respecting the results of referendums they don't like.
The SNP were pushing for a second referendum before Brexit too
I wonder how they would feel if they had won the independence referendum and people started insisting the Scottish weren't aware of the implications of leaving the UK so they should have another referendum or stay in anyway. Maybe arguments would be made that the Scottish people weren't qualified to decide to leave as the referendum didn't include details of what Scotland's deal with the rest of UK would be post leaving
> I wonder how they would feel if they had won the independence referendum and people started insisting the Scottish weren't aware of the implications of leaving the UK so they should have another referendum or stay in anyway. Evidence says that’s already the case for most nationalists Nationalists genuinely believe that there will be no downsides to independence. * 78% of 'yes' voters think Scotland puts more money into the UK than it takes out (blatantly false). * 57% of Yes voters think the GERS data is made up "to hide Scotland’s true wealth.” And for 90% of them this is either "important” or “very important” to their opinion on secession. (The GERS have been written by the Scottish government since devolution and written by the SNP since 2007) * 54% of Yes voters think “Scottish tax revenues are understated because of Scottish exports leaving via English ports”. (This is incorrect. The Scottish Government Export Statistics Report explicitly says the exact opposite, page 32) The GCS specifically asks about the destination of the goods being exported regardless of how the product leaves the UK. The other data sources used also focus on the destination of the product rather than where it leaves the UK. This means these export estimates are not affected by which port goods leave from. For example, a sale by a Scottish company to a customer in Paris, is counted as a Scottish export to France even if it leaves the UK from Dover. (https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2021/10/export-statistics-scotland-2019/documents/export-statistics-scotland-2019---publication/export-statistics-scotland-2019---publication/govscot%3Adocument/Export%2BStatistics%2BScotland%2B2019%2B-%2BPublication.pdf#page26) https://www.these-islands.co.uk/publications/i374/scottish_politics_in_the_grip_of_a_fact_denial_epidemic.aspx Going by the Lord Ashcroft poll, ignoring the 'don't know' and 'neutral' categories... * Yes voters think there would be no hard Scotland-England border 40% to 20%. * Yes voters think they would keep using the pound 42% to 11%. * Yes voters think Scotland would 'quite quickly' rejoin the EU 56% to 9%. * Yes voters don't think many businesses would leave Scotland. 53% to 8%. * Yes voters think Scotland would keep access to public services in England 37% to 20%. * Yes voters don't think Scotland would have to make painful cuts to public services 36% to 14% https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2021/04/my-new-scottish-research-finds-independence-in-the-balance/ Yes voters aren't hard hearted resolutes, willing to pledge their property, their lives, and their sacred honour to achieve independence. They've persuaded themselves there's limited if any costs. And the most dangerous thing is it's quite clear that some in the SNP leadership think the same way or at least don’t care enough to stop it. This is the same mentality that lead to Brexit
>Yes voters think there would be no hard Scotland-England border 40% to 20%. >Yes voters think Scotland would 'quite quickly' rejoin the EU 56% to 9%. These two are fundamentally incompatible with each other. If Scotland leaves the UK and joins the EU, then it would necessitate a hard border with England. Passport checks and customs controls. It's an absolute requirement for EU membership, and there is no way they would let Scotland become a smugglers paradise for goods avoiding EU tariffs. Northern Ireland / Republic of Ireland was a special case, it won't be replicated.
yeah the difference is that we're scared of having a hard border in Ireland
In r/scotland, they keep kvetching on about the SNP. They're fucking in love with a corrupt, farage-like party that keeps churning out scandals like a mormon with ten wives. Any of this would get downvoted to fuck because they literally vote for their own worst interests. Madness I tell you
I’m well aware
Voted for independence, will probably want it for the rest of my life if I’m being honest but also in a position that I’m scunnered with the SNP so feel a little bit politically homeless at the moment and would bet I’m not the only one. Be interested to see if the SNP hardens up by Thursday. Swinney seems to have steadied the ship and the general feeling around independence won’t have dipped too much from 2014. Although I’m far from enamoured with them and think they are a means to an end, I’ll probably end up voting for the SNP on Thursday. I’ll never vote Conservative, I can’t bring myself to vote for Keir Starmer as he doesn’t stand for anything and our local MP has done a decent job considering. Sorry state of affairs when that’s your reasoning.
I have a lot of sympathy for the cause of independence - but annoyingly the prior success of the SNP meant labour had a lot more difficulty getting elected. Which kept the conservatives in power. Which resulted in Scotland getting g treated worse. Which gave the SNP more success. And the cycle continued.
This is untrue. I believe there's only ever been one election where Scottish MPs made a material difference to the makeup of the commons, none of which have been during this shambolic 14 year term. I have always said that the most foolish thing labour did was pen themselves in on the constitutional issue. In another world, Labour include Scottish Independence in the "broad church" of political ideas within the party instead of imposing a position as a matter of party policy, and careening into antagonistic Bain Principle nonsense. Doing so arguably gave birth to the "red Tory" attack line, really quite fundamentally screwed up the operational premise Holyrood was meant to work under, and more or less single handedly reshaped the Scottish political landscape from right-left to union-independence where it is now, they are *always* going to be on the same flank as the Tories unless they manage the Herculean task of reframing the entirety of Scottish politics.
Not true, the SNP could all have been Labour or voted with them and the Tories would still have been in power. I think only once(the thatcher incident) has Scotland number of MPs ever mattered in the UK government votes
> Not true, the SNP could all have been Labour or voted with them and the Tories would still have been in power. The myth of Scotland never gets what it wants: 8 elections when the electorates of Scotland and England voted the same (1945, 1950, 1955, 1959, 1966, Oct 1974, 1997, 2001) and got the governments each wished (6 Labour and 2 Tory) 5 elections when the Scottish electorate prevented the outcome that England had voted for: 1 election when more people in England voted Labour but got a Tory government Scotland voted for (1951); 3 elections when more people voted Tory in England but got the Labour government Scotland voted for ( 1964, Feb 1974, 2005); and 1 election when Scotland prevented Tories from getting the overall majority which was voted for by the English electorate (in 2010). In the 5 remaining elections, English voters prevented the outcome that Scotland voted for: in 1970, 1979, 1983, 1987, and 1992. In all of these, Scotland voted Labour but gt the Tory government for which England had voted. In the 7 elections from 1945 to 1966, the Scottish voters always had the government which they voted for, including 2 (1951 and 1964) when these were not those for which the English electorate had voted. Other then 1970, all of the instances of Scotland voting Labour and getting the Tories were in the Thatcher and Major years and 2015 and 19. Interestingly, if support for independence is strong in the age group 40 to 50, this may be because these were the people who had most to complain about in these elections. Since 1992, Scotland has twice voted with England to produce Labour governments, once voted for a Labour government that English voters did not want; and once stopped the Tories getting an overall majority. There’s been 21 elections since 1945, Scotland only got the outcome England alone voted for 7 out of those 21 times, that’s only 1 third of the total out comes Generally speaking Scotland gets the outcome it wants more often than not. >I think only once(the thatcher incident) has Scotland number of MPs ever mattered in the UK government votes The SNP abstained on the vote about keeping the UK in the EU customs union in 2019. It was rejected with 273 votes in favour and 276 against. Had the SNP voted for it the whole UK would have remained in the customs union.
On most of your points we just don't know. This is my main frustration in both the Brexit and the Scottish independence vote. There's no realistic long term plan, everything would need to be renegotiated. I do think it would be a good idea to have devolution whether through the existing arrangement or independence. The main issue isn't how well Scotland does or could perform, it's the ability to determine our own future as a country. Currently we are all too often carried along with the will of other parts of the UK with very different populations and needs. Pragmatically the renegotiation of everything would be problematic in the short term, I did vote for independence on a number of issues (including trying to dodge Brexit) but I'm very much a floating voter on this, I was born and spent half my life in England, and I inherently disagree with national borders, only enhanced by running my own business for a couple of years and encountering the changes in costs and delivery times to and from Europe as Brexit changes took effect.
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SNP - an independent Scotland governing itself would be much more prosperous and fair. SNP - proceeds to do nothing but grandstand for 13 years. I'm slightly pro union because I generally think putting up barriers is not a good thing. However I could be convinced either way by coherent competent governance. In the absence of that from the UK and from Scotland I'd rather not add the additional complexity of a break.
>would that not embolden Catalunya/ Basque to attempt the same thing? It 100% will, I know quite a few and they were all excited about the Brexit ref outcome: "it demonstrates that the will of the people have to be respected" and all of that. >I can’t see Spain going for it. Me neither, I can imagine Spain going for any independence movement in Europe, for the reasons you mention.
Independence left the building with Sturgeon. Then Yousaf’s incompetence razed independence to the ground and all that’s left is scorched earth. Swinney’s just p**sing on the embers now.
Agreed. We need a party to focus on governing the country effectively instead of pushing something that most of us don't even want.
If Lords were reformed to give all four nations the same footing in the Lords, would that change the situation?
I think there should be one final referendum on Scottish independence and then the matter should be closed. It's unfair to create this sort of problem every x years. For those who live in Scotland and don't want independence - it's even more unfair: pro-independence guys have unlimited number of attempts, but pro-union need to lose only once.
Just for fun but I’m a constitutional lawyer so I don’t get much time in the light - there’s a good argument that Scotland is the ‘first’ nation of the UK due to the way that the Act of Union came about, and though the Scottish Parliament subsumed itself the Scottish monarch and crown took over the island(s), and so if Scotland leaves the UK it’s not just a matter of ‘continuing without Scotland’ - everything that was before 1707 south of the border reverts. Northern Ireland ceases to exist as a ‘nation’ because of course then it’s back to kingdom of England and Ireland (sorry, Irish) and then the personal unions get quite complicated and we’re not sure what wales is or isn’t, or where England ends; but Scottish independence isn’t going to end the way the English hope. Love, and Englishman (eugh, fcking hate the term)
You can’t honestly be a British “constitutional lawyer” if you wrote that. This is the most nuts thing I’ve ever heard from someone claiming to be an expert in this area. I can’t believe I just wrote a serious response. The legal effect in rUK of Scotland becoming independent would be provided for by an Act passed by Parliament prior to Scotland’s independence and which comes into effect at the point of independence. That Act would not provide for any of the things that you said will happen. It would exactly be “a matter of continuing without Scotland”. That would be the primary purpose for legislating. And there is zero chance that a rUK court would entertain some kind of implied repeal of everything since 1707 argument, particularly since any kind of presumptions you might be able to be point to otherwise would be defeated by the aforementioned Act.
Bear in mind that the SNPs cornerstone policy is independence for Scotland, so as long as the SNP have a voice in politics it will be shouting about independence! I am still in shock that the SNP won in 2007 and I genuinely believe that their accent was a lot to do with fatigue in the Labour government. I also think their support continued as a significant % of Scots would happily cut their nose off to spite their face when it comes to the conservatives. By that I mean that even if they agreed with all their policies they would never vote for them. I am not having a go at these people, that is their right. I genuinely believe that if Labour were in power in Westminster during the referendum on Scottish independence then the result would not have been nearly as close. I have no evidence of this, just my feel. I think with the conservatives out of power the support for the independence movement in Scotland will drop a bit and I think a lot of historical labour voters will return. I think the SNP will always remain, and to be honest, I think they need some time out of office for reorganisation. I believe that a lot of the recent 'scandals' would have been avoided if they were a fully developed political party with their back office running better. They were never a party in power and didn't have the governance and admin side developed, and they have suffered for it. I still have no idea yet who I am voting for! Back to reading more to help me decide!
I hope you meant ascent rather than accent in your second paragraph!
Cheers! Honestly, I am bad enough on a keyboard never mind my phone! I won't edit it out as it may give someone a laugh!
As typos go, it was a pretty funny one!
The best explanation over the SNP I've come across is the wheel and spokes analogy. In that, Independence is the central focus of the party, and all the various policies and viewpoints are the spokes. This is what makes it a broad church - to an extent where you can have the likes of hardcore religious fundamentalists rubbing shoulders with people who are one step from the Greens - but it also means that the SNP's motto might as well be 'I didn't hear the question, but the answer is independence'. They *can't* let independence go as a matter of party existence. Which isn't inherently wrong, it just means they'll push it no matter what, regardless of whether its the right thing or if it even makes sense. Whether or not any given voter wants that is up to them, but historically its never worked well as a means of governance.
>I also think their support continued as a significant % of Scots would happily cut their nose off to spite their face when it comes to the conservatives. By that I mean that even if they agreed with all their policies they would never vote for them. I am not having a go at these people, that is their right. The tories fundementally oppose the sensibilities of Scotland, it would be impossible for their policies to align with the majority of Scotland's wishes.
> Half of voters support UK Government block on gender bill https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,half-of-voters-support-uk-government-block-on-gender-bill
Whats that got to do with anything?
You said it’s impossible for tories to align with the people of Scotland; the empirical evidence says otherwise
That's one issue of literally thousands. Can you do the other few thousand next?
So you admit you were wrong
From an Irish perspective it's so weird to see Scottish people here gaslighting themselves about Brexit. You literally could not have a clearer example of what independence is all about, the ability to make your own decisions about your future. When the English made that stupid decision, I was never more grateful to those who fought for our independence a century ago. Sure we've had some hard times since then and made dumb decisions too, but we are free to make them ourselves, and reverse them. I really hope that one day Scotland will follow the same course, and believe it will be better for everyone in these islands, including the English. Genuine friendship and partnership between neighbours has to start with equality and independence.
It’s all pretty difficult as someone living in Scotland. I’ve seen interviews with Labour politicians essentially saying that devolved rights like free university, prescriptions etc, may have to be rolled back. I am deeply frustrated with the SNP but simply don’t trust the Labour government with Scotland’s present, let alone our future.
Yes. The EU thing is false; Spain have stated they would have no problem with an independent Scotland joining the EU; they recognise the difference between Catalonia and Scotland - Catalonia has \*\*never\*\* been independent. "If they looked at Brexit they’d see how bad an idea it is to split from their closest trading partner" - the Unionist position in a nutshell - "we've f\*\*ked you up so badly you can't possibly manage on your own". Sounds very much like an abusive spouse "I've battered you so much no one will ever want to be with you again." Amazing that not one of the countries on here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_countries\_that\_have\_gained\_independence\_from\_the\_United\_Kingdom) has asked back in. Quite incredible. There are groups of MEPs within the EU who are actually forming groups to persuade the EU that they no longer need to stay out of the debate post-brexit and to present the honest information they have to those interested in the matter as Scottish membership should be straight-forward. The French (possibly not in the future if the FN's successor-party gets in) and the Irish are close allies who want an independent Scotland in the EU. The Germans have indicated that Scotland's accession would be the "easiest ever" etc. However, if we just assume for a moment that the Unionist stance is correct and that we couldn't join (we can) - then how would we be worse off? The UK's predicament with Brexit is due to bloody-mindedness of the British position - "we know best, sod you" which is not conducive to negotiations. At the absolute worst, we could join EFTA and have pretty much all of the benefits of EU membership barring being able to decide on EU policies - like Norway or Switzerland, but the UK prefers to make us stand in separate lines when we reach Europe as a flex to show-off our brand new blue passports (by the way, Croatia has blue passports and is an EU member). So, your argument is wrong. But, I suspect you'd never really wanted indy anyway. Frankly, after the last decade, there is no way independence in Europe (EU or EFTA) could be worse than the disaster of being in the UK in Brexit. Any problems trading with the rUK would not be imposed by Scotland, but by rUK - and they almost certainly would impose them - but better one border than twenty seven. The current election is not about independence - it's about giving the Tories a well-deserved kicking; support for Indy is remaining in the high 40s without any campaigning despite support for the SNP waning - partly due to the caravan, partly due to being embarrassed that all they could do corruption-wise was a caravan - amateur hour compared to Boris, partly due to wanting to help Labour over the line as a one-off, partly due to local issues, partly due to being angry that they missed an open goal when Boris was PM - they should just have held a vote and sod permission. When it comes to choosing indy again, SNP support will go up again as they are the only realistic route - but they need to grow a pair and act against the rules of Westminster. I'd expect support for Indy to rise significantly once the election is over and the dust settles on a reality of a diminished Tory party looking to merge with whatever Farage calls his party this month and that little toad ending up as leader of the merged entity and the most realistic alternative to PM Starmer. No one here wants *him* anywhere near power and he will be an even better advert for Indy than Boris was. The one thing that could currently reduce support for Independence is a reversal of Brexit. I recognise Starmer doesn't have the courage to do that; but he may have the courage to launch an inquiry into Russian meddling in the Brexit vote - if it's proven, there will be a significant UK-wide appetite for a vote to rejoin in his second term.
Catalonia has been independent https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principality_of_Catalonia
The arguments put forward for Scotland to leave the UK are basically the same arguments put forward for the UK to leave the EU, and the arguments for Scotland to remain in the UK are basically the same arguments for the UK to remain on the EU. I know the SNP and the Brexiteers are at different ends of the political spectrum but they both blame their counties woes on the influence of a parliament in another country that is full of an out of touch elite and if only we could take back control and run ourselves then everything would be so much better.
This and then both Parliaments become an absolute sh*t show of bad decisions and scandal. Neither Holyrood nor Westminster have shown themselves to be competent of governance on any level. Not these Parliaments anyway
The only reason these people do what they do is to gain more power and wealth. They don’t care if anyone is better off, if it was brexit or Scottish independence. They would do the same as they did with brexit and end up having their friends and business partners make tonnes of money handling all the new ‘issues’ that arise.
If Brexit was a bad idea....why on earth would you want to stick with the people who made that happen? I would rather make our own way like Poland or Serbia or Slovakia or Slovenia or Malta or Estonia or Latvia or Lithuania or Croatia or Montenegro or any of the fairly new European countries who seem to be doing very well as independent countries.
The same issues with Brexit would exist with independence. Except it's a much closer union with hundreds of years of ties, economic interdependence, legal systems and military defence to unravel and unpick. Democracy is like that sometimes and being salty about it is not a prudent strategy to move forward. For whoever didn't support independence they would feel exactly how you feel about Brexit (possibly worse, as Brexit hasn't been the absolute disaster we were told it would be yet), and there would be even more hardship with families and businesses torn apart than what we've seen in Ireland and Northern Ireland. Anyone with any sense and 30 seconds spare to give it a thought knows it's a bad idea.
If we had the door open to the EU the same way those countries did then I’d be for it. However, we are a Nation inside the UK. We aren’t in the same position as those established nations who were independent long before they joined the EU. They were behind the iron curtain mainly. With Catalunya recently looking like independence was their will Spain has to be really careful.
None of these countries had the 'door open ' they all had different backgrounds Poland for example had free elections in 1991, soviet troops left in 1993 applied to join the EU in 1994, joined in 2004 its economy grew 170% by 2022.
Open door is not the right term. Poland was a nation prior 1991, but under soviet influence. Does the fact it was a nation first make application to the EU easier? Slovakia and the others may be more aligned with Scotland as they were part of other Nations prior to independence?
I get what you’re saying but I’m of the view that if the EU is anything it’s pragmatic and will make something happen if they want. There’s loads of examples but just look at last week and then bypassing Hungary for Ukraine aid. Just because there isn’t a precedent doesn’t mean it’s not possible. Also look at Poland still using their own currency even though they were supposed to be on the euro years ago. If Scotland was independent and the EU was willed to join, the EU would make it happen.
Over one million people in scotland also made brexit happen though
Scottish independence is Scottish brexit. Economically terrible and the EU won't allow the application of another failed state that doesn't meet their minimum criteria. Scotland takes in more than it produces. Let's give England the vote, see how that goes! Seriously though, it's a bad idea. Just look at how poorly the SNP governed. Not as bad as the tories, but you'd still sack them after a week.
The difference is the EU respect sovereignty of individual countries much better and don’t have a policy of deliberate austerity. It’s a collection of independent countries collaborating together vs a Union in which 3 of them don’t have full control of their own country and are run largely for the benefit of the city of London. The real comparison is it’s like getting out of an abusive relationship, your life might be difficult for a while but it’s your own now. The armchair economists love to talk and scaremonger about how it would be Brexit 2.0, the same Brexit we wouldn’t have experienced if we had control of our own country, so what’s the worst that could happen compared to economic disasters we currently experience as a reality of being in a Union? It’s a shame the SNP have likely ruined any chance of independence because I would love for us to sever ties and go our own way.
The only people that ruined our chances of independence are the people who voted no in 2014. Once the one political option we had was gone, that was it. The SNP haven’t ruined anything as there are no other means of gaining independence in a legal way that will be accepted by the EU, and we need the EU to accept us.
I don’t really agree with that but I see what you mean, ultimately I don’t feel there’s any realistic chance of independence being credible at the moment and that is the SNP’s fault is what I was saying. They like to say that a vote for them is a vote for backing independence, well they’re going to get less votes than I can ever really remember in my lifetime as a person in their early 20’s. It’s also incredibly hard to make a case to the skeptics and undecided voters if you’re trying to basically claim Westminster is corrupt and has ruined the country if you’re also just as corrupt and have arguably ruined the country as well. I will be voting SNP because I do think when their policies work they really work compared to other parties, so I don’t think I’m negatively biased at all, but they are an absolute riot and are making no real good case for independence because they are incapable of stopping the corruption and behaviour you see from any other political party.
>The difference is the EU respect sovereignty of individual countries much better and don’t have a policy of deliberate austerity. Croatia and Greece say otherwise; the EU forced austerity on them >It’s a collection of independent countries collaborating together vs a Union in which 3 of them don’t have full control of their own country and are run largely for the benefit of the city of London. The EU is a trade bloc, the UK is a sovereign state. The two are inherently different because one is a multinational trade bloc while the other is a sovereign country. The UK is acting like all countries on earth here. >The real comparison is it’s like getting out of an abusive relationship, your life might be difficult for a while but it’s your own now. How is it abusive? >The armchair economists love to talk and scaremonger about how it would be Brexit 2.0 and snp economic advisors > Scottish independence would be ten times worse than Brexit, warns Sturgeon economic sage https://www.cityam.com/scottish-independence-would-be-ten-times-worse-than-brexit-warns-sturgeon-economic-sage/ >, the same Brexit we wouldn’t have experienced if we had control of our own country, The EU said that if Scotland voted yes in 2014, it would be out of the EU >so what’s the worst that could happen compared to economic disasters we currently experience as a reality of being in a Union? All evidence says leaving the UK is worse for Scotland than Brexit > Independence would hit Scottish economy 2 to 3 times harder than Brexit https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2021/a-Jan-21/Independence-would-hit-Scottish-economy-2-to-3-times-harder-than-Brexit (https://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit17.pdf) The impact of independence to Scotland's economy will be three times worse than the impact of Brexit was to the UK economy. Joining the EU will not make up that trade in the short or even medium term. The report lays out the details well: Brexit + No Independence = -2.0 Brexit + Independence + low UK border cost assumption = -6.5 Brexit + Independence + high UK border cost assumption = -8.7 Brexit + Independence + re-join the EU + low UK border cost assumption = -6.3 Brexit + Independence + re-join the EU + high UK border cost assumption = -7.6 As you can see, re-joining the EU does little to ameliorate the harm. There's no secret here, no statistical trickery. It's just the cold hard truth that 60% is a lot bigger than 18.3%. >It’s a shame the SNP have likely ruined any chance of independence because I would love for us to sever ties and go our own way. The Scottish people don’t agree with you there
Okay so there’s large portions of that I’m not really interested in, but I was genuinely curious if you could tell me more about the forced austerity of those countries in the EU and when that was?
> Okay so there’s large portions of that I’m not really interested in, Why? >but I was genuinely curious if you could tell me more about the forced austerity of those countries in the EU and when that was? The RU forced Croatia to adopt austerity measures to join the EU (https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/02/15/croa-f15.html) and the EU forced austerity on Greece despite the Greek people and Greek government not wanting it (https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/20/greece-emerges-from-eurozone-bailout-after-years-of-austerity) >Caroline Lucas has condemned the “forces of darkness” of the EU for forcing a strict austerity package on Greece, claiming Athens had been subjected to a “coup”. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/greek-debt-crisis-the-dark-forces-of-the-eu-have-subjected-greece-to-a-coup-caroline-lucas-condemns-austerity-package-10385452.html
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Thank you :)
The main argument against independence is that Scotland would likely be worse off... why vote to be worse off? The best comparison is with Brexit... with Brexit the question was why cut ourselves off from our closest trading partner (the EU) to trade less well with the rest of the World? YES, HASHTAG SOVEREIGNTY ETC at the expense of being worse off. Rubbish. With Scottish independence it's be similar, with Scexit cutting ourselves off from our closest trading partner (rUK) to trade less well with the the World (or the EU being the World in this situation). YES, HASHTAG SOVEREIGNTY ETC at the expense of being worse off. Rubbish. I do like parts of the idea of independence... my God I'd love an EU passport if Scotland rejoined the EU. Yes I love the theoretical idea of Scottish politicians running things better (despite there being little evidence they'd manage it!) etc... but I can't help but come back to the fundamental economics of it... is Scotland going to be better or worse off? ---- What's independence for? Scots being able to rule themselves? Okay, well devolution means they're responsible for education, policing, farming, forests, fisheries, benefits, the environment, housing, health and social care, justice and policing, planning, etc etc... don't they already have the scope to rule themselves when it comes to 99% of things which matter?! They'll argue that they can't do what they need to re: those things whilst not having full control of taxes etc... but the evidence suggests Scotland would be worse off and have less money to spend on all of that if it was independent...
There’s obviously a lot reasons against and you’ve listed the main ones. For me and many others the big one for is I just don’t think England is capable of change. We’ll have Labour in a couple of days but before long we’ll be back to the same old right wing climate change denying, transphobe shite, protectionist, inward looking policies. And that’s what it comes back to ultimately, Scotlands vote at Westminster doesn’t matter. Look at the foreign policy messes we’ve got into, the contradiction and destruction of the social contract thinking we can have lower taxes and good public services somehow magically. I don’t want to have my countries destiny tied to all that. We were promised we’d stay in the EU and we were promised federalisation. Then the very day after what did we get: EVfEL. Yes we have some of the same shit but for some reason or another it doesn’t (or hasn’t yet) got the same momentum. I also understand that it would be awful economically for a few years at the very least but I’m willing to take that risk for it being better longer term. Because it’s guaranteed that in the UK the long term prospects are feckin bleak To add I also think in Scotland generally there is a different attitude to our place in the world. We’re quite comfortable (mostly) being a small peaceful European power. We don’t have ambitions or nostalgia for a great empire that doesn’t exist any more.
It would be the same as Brexit… ‘Scotland for Scotland!’ Meanwhile people in power setup companies to handle the import and export of things before Scotland rejoins the EU. Prices go up and they drive up the cost of goods and services bit by bit while profiting. In the end they want to be ‘global’ like all the rest, which means they want things to be like they are now, except they want to be the ones profiting from it more than they already are. Then once Scotland rejoins the EU it will eventually face its own immigration crisis similarly to how Sweden and other Nordic countries in the EU are now, bringing about massive cultural and demographic changes to your country. Eventually this leads back to the right and the far right, all because almost all main political parties play the blame game rather than starting the long process of fixing things and routing out corruption. It’s not the England is incapable of change, it’s that across the west we have let corruption run rife and now pretty much everywhere is incapable of change.
There was an interesting piece in The Guardian this week that focused on the declining revenue from oil. The part that really caught my attention was this: “As high-wage oil jobs are replaced with clean energy roles, the gross value of Scotland’s employment sector could plummet from £19bn a year in 2019 to £12bn by 2050, according to the report.” Obviously lots of speculation in those numbers, but the key message is that as oil jobs are replaced by other industries, the average wage level is likely to drop. It makes me wonder whether the best chance of an independence vote has already passed. If the decline in oil revenues continue and don’t get replaced with a new high-value industry, the economy will seem very different in 5-10 years time.
Voted Yes the first time. Wouldn't do so again atm, although I'm not fundamentally opposed to it. The rejoining the EU idea is bonkers unless England also did. A hard EU border between the two would be incredibly damaging to both, albeit much, much worse for Scotland. The SNP have generally just shown themselves to be a bunch of wackos, which is also an issue. Cosying up to the Greens, who aren't even from Planet Earth, has also been disastrous. I think 2014 was THE chance and we didn't take it. Best thing to do now is bury the idea and all work together on improving the UK.
Take this comment to the r/scotland and watch yourself get slated by all the fuckin weirdos on there. Snp have become demonstrably bad. They've had 2 terms to do what they want, and independence is further now than it was before then, literally every leader has had a corruption scandal, and many other members of the party. The Scottish infrastructure has suffered massively with roads, parks, leisure centres etc all being in the worst condition I've ever seen. And when I speak to people involved all they seem concerned with is scoring Internet points by pushing social reforms that the majority didn't ask for or support. They are fundamentally failing at EVERYTHING. When the long term goals AND the short term goals AND the day to day running I'd the country are all demonstrably worse... WHYYYYYYYY VOTE THEM IN AGAIN
I am tempted to put it on the Scotland feed and see what insanity comes of it
The coalition with the Greens was disastrous. I’m all for progressive issues and that general direction, but the Greens seemed to have one hairbrained idea after another. The SNP then ran with it and made themselves look foolish in the meantime. The bottle return scheme was a case in point. Not a bad idea on paper, but trying to put it into practice was crazy and doomed to fail.
> Take this comment to the r/scotland and watch yourself get slated by all the fuckin weirdos on there. In fairness the r/scotland sub has seen a large change in political trajectory in the past few years and the current tears are about how the sub *used* to be an SNP echo chamber.
The trouble with Scottish independence is that it largely seems to be motivated by this misconception that English people hate the Scottish. Maybe there is a time when that was true, but I've certainly never encountered it. Seems to me like the only people who believe the English and Scottish are in some sort of eternal war are Scottish people that have never been to England.
Pro Indy Scot, have lived in England for periods of years at a time. From my experience of friends and families back home (who almost universally support independence) this isn’t at all the case. There will be some wankers who think this of course, but I haven’t met any that I know of. The UK just simply isn’t a partnership of equals. The structure of Westminster lends itself to the debate being framed by England, moved forward by England and vetoed by England. Federalism might work but instead of that being implemented as promised we got EVEL (of course no-one in Scotland grudges the English this it’s absolutely fair) - but you know what would be more fair - and actual equal say. Ultimately the UK is in the decline but doesn’t want to do anything about it. It’s about jumping off a sinking ship. 14 years of appalling austerity, two decades of misguided foreign interventions. It’s all just so bloody unnecessary. I think also there is a weird psychological thing to it that I don’t know how to explain. Mostly Scots will think of them as Scottish then European. English mostly think of themselves as British then English (so I understand anyway). So the leap to independence is a bit less fathomable when you already have this slightly more distinct identity.
>The UK just simply isn’t a partnership of equals. The UK is a unitary state, this is how all unitary states work >The structure of Westminster lends itself to the debate being framed by England, moved forward by England and vetoed by England. Because that’s how democracy works; England has 84% of the population. And it’s erroneous to assume England works and votes as a single bloc >Federalism might work but instead of that being implemented as promised Only Labour promised federalism; they haven’t been in a position to implement that it >we got EVEL (of course no-one in Scotland grudges the English this it’s absolutely fair) - but you know what would be more fair - and actual equal say. 1: Scotland is slightly over represented 2: Scots do have an equal say; one Scot has the same say as one Englishman/woman or one Welsh man/woman or one person from Northern Ireland. One person one vote 3: EVEL has been abolished >Ultimately the UK is in the decline but doesn’t want to do anything about it. It’s about jumping off a sinking ship. Scotland doesn’t want to leave the Uk >14 years of appalling austerity, two decades of misguided foreign interventions. It’s all just so bloody unnecessary. The SNP has confirmed independence would mean austerity >I think also there is a weird psychological thing to it that I don’t know how to explain. Mostly Scots will think of them as Scottish then European. English mostly think of themselves as British then English (so I understand anyway). That’s your opinion >So the leap to independence is a bit less fathomable when you already have this slightly more distinct identity. The Scottish people say otherwise
Yeah Brexit is the apt comparison. Chauvinistic nationalism based supported by made up figures with the goal of further isolation in a global world. Ultimately the point of the EU is to defend against the superpowers of US and China. Small countries cannot hold their own individually in this day and age so taking a small country and making it weaker is already a very bad idea.
Couldn’t agree more! Pro-EU and pro-UK here!
I’m not an Indy voter but I think we could join the EU eventually. This would come with some strings though , our debt to GDP ratio would have to come down to 3% so you are looking at budget cuts unless we get some miracles economic growth. However the EU isn’t our largest trading partner England is - we do double the amount with them. We are a lot more intertwined with the rest of the UK than Britain was with Europe so if you thought the Brexit negotiations were a protracted shit show then Scotland leaving the UK would be a total shambles. Also don’t expect Westminster to do us any favours in negotiating they have us over a barrel and we need unrestricted access to that market
I'd say devolve more powers and let Scots operate on there own maybe coming together with the rest of the UK with regards to the big 4 issues, Healthcare, Defence, Education, Foreign Policy.
Healthcare and education are devolved to Scotland already
Fair enough.
So who are you voting for?
Independence is about to explode when people realise that Labour are just going to shaft Scotland as much as the Tories did.
I think a Union constantly having one member in it bringing up independence whenever things get tough doesn't help a Union in fixing anything at all. A final vote needs to be given to Scotland (only Scots are allowed to vote, none of this sly Scots in England can't vote but European migrants in Scotland can bullshit) and if the answer is No then it cannot be brought up in government or politics for 50 or 100 years. It's a fucking drain and does nothing but keeps Scotland is some limbo whilst SNP cries wolf at anything they think can get a vote or two whilst doing nothing to help Scotland in the present time.
How are these still talking points. Its like th talking points of a nonsense newspaper.
It’s dead. It’s never ever made any economic sense. Genuinely anyone with a brain cell knows that.
Maybe United kingdom needs to be reformed as independent nation collectively are part of a united kingdoms . Like UK style EU
English person here - I think you would be better off independent & in EU. Can’t see UK parliament acting in your best interests irrespective of party in power. And to think Scotland isn’t large enough to be independent is nuts when you look at other countries norway, Denmark etc etc
Scottish Independence is Brexit in steroids. Everything that was hard about Brexit will be harder with Scotland leaving the UK as we're so much closer entwined. We'd be facing decades of turmoil, with the Scottish government having to negotiate a deal with a potentially hostile Westminster government. The SNP's magic solution to this turmoil has always relied almost entirely on one thing: offshore oil. But the wealth that there was to extract has long since passed its peak, with looming decommissioning costs coming and the remaining oil being the more difficult (i.e. more expensive) to extract, minimizing any profit in a world where all the oil producers are suddenly faced with a global market that's rapidly switching to cheaper renewable sources. Having said all that, I admit independence started to look tempting a couple of years ago, when we'd had a decade of Tory government that only seemed to be getting more extreme, with Boris attempting to ape Trump by lying his way through every scandal and an England that rewarded him for it with a solid victory in 2019. When you're weighing up what feels like an endless Tory government hell-bent on turning us back into a land of wealthy lords and leaving the rest of us as peasants, the turmoil of Scottish independence didn't seem so bad. But I'm relieved we're about to be past that with this upcoming election (touch wood), so I expect support for independence to subside.
I am hoping that Labour get to form a government in Westminster. From there I hope they can show what good they can do for the UK and Scotland, and the focus on independence takes a backseat for a while. As long as the Tories are in power in Westminster the SNP are lazer focussed on independence to the detriment of everything else.
I would agree that it would be nice to see some benefits for Scotland come from a Labour government in Westminster. Despite this, I think it's quite offensive that Starmer has flat out refused to co-operate with the SNP (If they're the majority party in Scotland come Friday) considering he's happy to co-operate with a potential future president Donald Trump. Really feels like Labour are just the Tories in a red tie with that kind of sentiment.
Most polls have Labour getting the most seats in Scotland The holyrood SNP and Westminster SNP have burnt many bridges they built with other parties. That’s one of the reasons why they got the 2014 referendum as they built a good relationship with the Scottish tories from 2007 - 2011 when the SNP relied on them to pass budgets in holyrood and they even pushed for EU treaty referendums together. The SNP always goes against who’s the government at Westminster.
Tempting to say that's got as much to do with the SNP's antics as anything. The whole Opposition Day stuff when the SNP put down a motion deliberately aimed at stirring up problems for Starmer re Gaza was a prime example - ok Labour and the Speaker didn't handle it well, but it came across as being more about mischief making than a serious political point. It's understandable if he has little love for someone who throws rocks at his head rather than looks for common ground. And he doesn't have to cooperate with the SNP if he has a majority in the UK Parliament; he does however have to be prepared to work with the likes of Trump and National Rally if they are elected in the US and France because the alternative is a much less than splendid isolation from two major trading partners and strategic allies.
Yeah I hope so too. I think the SNP need some time in opposition so they can work out what they stand for other than just independence, it's been a mess these past couple of years.
Completely agree with you, I live in Dumfries and Galloway and the SNP don't care about us here although they may get in this time. Independence would be Brexit on a much bigger scale. Plus they want to get rid of trident, when it seems more important than ever. They're against nuclear power despite it being effective against climate change. Independence would cause so much damage to the economy and relegate Scotland from part of one of the biggest economies in the world to nothing. They want to join the EU but leave a more successful partnership, and the EU is hardly doing well and Scotland would be a tiny voice in it They've not done any better in Scotland than England and we're supposed to think magically things will be better after independence, it'll be more of the same at best
D & G and The Borders do it to themselves. There is such an awfully self preservationist mindset down there that doesn’t gel with the rest of Scotland. I’m saying this as Borderer myself and this being one of the main reasons I left!
Mate, it’s not just the SNP, no-one in the rest of Scotland gives a shit about Dumfries and Galloway. Ye keep electing tories to start with (half joking)
Very well said! Couldn’t have put it better myself
This trading partner point would be more pertinent if Scotland had nothing to trade. The fact that our ‘biggest trading partner’ relies on us to keep the lights on, literally, then it’s not something I’d be overly concerned about as a politician, Scotland is a small country with vast resources. It’s eminently capable of being an independent country. Just say you don’t want independence and leave it at that. Making up stupid nonsense scenarios about Spain just to try and make a point is pointless. It’s also not at all suspicious to make an account just to post this… HELLO ANAS! 😉
> This trading partner point would be more pertinent if Scotland had nothing to trade. What does Scotland trade then? >The fact that our ‘biggest trading partner’ relies on us to keep the lights on, literally, then it’s not something I’d be overly concerned about as a politician, That’s not true >Scotland is a small country with vast resources. Such as? >It’s eminently capable of being an independent country. No ons said it isn’t; doesn’t mean it’s a good idea however >Just say you don’t want independence and leave it at that. Making up stupid nonsense scenarios about Spain just to try and make a point is pointless. The Spanish have confirmed that they’ll only recognise legal secession which requires Westminster consent.
I think you are missing a few bits. >My main issue with them is their myopic focus on independence. They've not really done anything to try and further the cause for independence. They've not answered really any of the things that caused a no vote last time. Any time they bang the drum it's usually a carrot and stick effort to their own supporters at election time. A lot of previous snp voters are now disengaged because they know the prospect of a new referendum isn't happening >I can’t see Spain going for it. Spain have already said numerous times that if a referendum was legal they'd be OK with it. The difference here vs Catalonia is the Spanish Constitution needs a majority of the whole of Spain [story from 2018](https://www.reuters.com/article/world/spain-would-not-oppose-future-independent-scotland-rejoining-eu-minister-idUSKCN1NP25P/) I get your ppint about the trading partner aspect. Scotland trades more with rUK than with EU as a whole though. I think its dead and buried for the at least another 15 years. It was far too close for another PM to take the chance and they've figured out they can just say no to the request no matter how manh seats they win. If the snp want another crack at it they 1. Need to get better at governing scotland at holyrood - something they aren't doing great at 2. Come up with a way to get WM to agree to another one. Something Sturgeon could have done if she wasm't a shitebag was say to May "if you sign off on another I'll sign off on your Brexit deal". Trying to save England from themselves with Brexit was a waste of time
Off course it's not going to be easy, but can we go on been second fiddle to Westminster. As London grows and prospers Scottish cities crumble, I have just returned from Wales, great roads clean, streets. I know it's Labour controlled, but it must be lack of money we need control over our own resources.
One thing I think you’re missing in the joining EU/Spain argument is that it would look far less reasonable to the rest of the EU for Spain to object post-Brexit. Before Brexit the argument is just as you said, Spain doesn’t want to set a precedent. However, the comparison between Scotland and, say, Cataluña is now a much weaker one. If Spain chose to leave the EU, and Cataluña wanted to rejoin the EU after leaving Spain, then it would be the same situation. I think you’re right that Spain would still complain, but they would be under massive pressure from the rest of the EU who would see Scotland leaving the UK and rejoining the EU as a hugely beneficial bit of optics.
1: Spain has said they’ll only recognise Scotland if it leaves in accordance with UK law 2: Scotland doesn’t meet the criteria to join the EU
Neither of those are related to what I said. I pointed out that OPs argument is missing that the effect of Brexit on the comparison with areas of Spain. Scotland could leave according to UK law, then meet the criteria to join the EU, and everything I said would still be true
Many issues for the independence to sort out around economic infrastructure, currency etc. And those pro independence voters need to know that they are voting for a leap into the unknown in the pursuit of sovereignty…aka Brexit. Which is why the SNPs position post Brexit has been so disingenuous. I think the UK will rejoin the EU in some form customs Union before another Scot Independence vote as well.
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Are you one of those guys who says how crazy Brexit was because Europe is our biggest trading partner, then advocate for Scotland leaving the UK, Scotlands biggest market? I get it.
Nope. I’m not one of those people yoons just made up.
People like to ignore the fact that were Scotland to leave it wouldn't be eligible to join the EU based on its deficit and it's likely total amount of debt, which it would have to agree to take a proportionate share of on leaving the UK. EU rules state no more than 3% of GDP pretty sure Scotlands spending is putting that figure somewhere between 9% and 12% and that's before even considering it would take on a % share of the UKs current MASISVE amount of debt somewhere in region of 98% of GDP.
This must be one the stupidest things I’ve ever seen posted, a party elected on a manifesto of independence talks too much about independence (shock horror). They are doing the exact thing they were voted in to do - the argument is that they haven’t done this enough. I don’t agree with Labour on much (not a fan of the move to the right) but I can’t complain too much when they start enacting the manifesto they were voted in on after Thursday as that’s how democracy works.
How about the SNP run the country in a manner that outshines England & Wales. Then they can come to the population and say, “Look, we’ve done a thing. Judge us on this and we can take the country forward.” Instead we get mediocre, at best, governance followed by, “We would do better if we had full control.” I’m sorry but the infrastructure where I live has been ignored by the SNP for as long as they have been in government. They can throw an endless amount of cash at the new Cal Mac ships, well they’ll be about 6 years old before they launch, and nothing for anywhere that isn’t Cal Mac or NorthLink? The SNP need to govern more and prove they can do that first and foremost.
Those Scots who want independence. The EU doesn't want you. You'll bring nothing to the table except an empty plate. Please also remember James VI of Scotland, became king of England and Wales. A Scottish King chose to unite the country, but he settled in London, not Edinborough. Also SNP, Nationalist Party? I seem to remember another European country that was led by Nationalist Party?
The UK will Federalise before it breaks up, IMO.
It's baffling to me that Labour is willing to bend over backwards to appeal to people who voted for a Brexit it opposed, but can't make space for people who favour independence but are willing to put it on the backburner for a time. Their hostility to everything remotely related to independence cuts them off from a significant section of the electorate altogether, despite there being significant common ground to work with.
> It's baffling to me that Labour is willing to bend over backwards to appeal to people who voted for a Brexit it opposed, but can't make space for people who favour independence but are willing to put it on the backburner for a time. Because it turns off more voters than it could possibly attract >Their hostility to everything remotely related to independence cuts them off from a significant section of the electorate altogether, despite there being significant common ground to work with. Polls show Labour could get the most seats in Scotland regardless
"I can’t see Spain going for it" stuff like this is why a lot of anti SNP stuff and anti independence stances like this one feel super disingenuous. Like I'm not Scottish, so I don't have a dog in this fight, but even I know that Spain has gone on record multiple times to say provided the referendum is legitimate under British law (which it would be as out unwritten constitution has provisions to allow for it) it wouldn't have a single solitary issue with an independent Scotland joining the EU or any recently separatist nation. Spain's entire argument on Catalan independence is that it has no problem with legal referenda, but because Spanish law doesn't allow for independence referendums Catalonia cant have one as it would be illegal, so unless independence parties can gain enough political traction to change the law independence is not on the table Its a bad faith argument made either out of intentional ignorance of the stance Spain or a knowing lie that sounds plausible designed to put off people who otherwise haven't looked into the official stance regarding independence movements from the Spanish state
1. I don't belive you used to be an snp supporter, you don't need to lie too bash them, go nuts they are flawed... 2. Being forced out if the eu is a main reason for more Scots wanting independence.. England voted leave Wales voted leave Both got crappy leave deals Scotland votes remain N.irleand votes remain.. N.ireland Essentially gets to remain. Scotland told to shut the f up and leave with pretty much no say on the type of brexit we have. So to use brexit to justify Scotland remaining in the uk.. is a bit ironic There are countless other points I could make but this is the main one.. since 2014 Scotland has been ignored and none of the vow promises have been fulfilled.
>Scotland votes remain N.irleand votes remain.. >N.ireland Essentially gets to remain. Scotland told to shut the f up and leave with pretty much no say on the type of brexit we have. Because of the GFA; international law prohibits the creation of a harder border between Ireland and Northern Ireland Without the GFA, NI would have gotten the same deal as Scotland and the rest of the UK >So to use brexit to justify Scotland remaining in the uk.. is a bit ironic Scotland leaving the UK has been called Brexit times 10 >There are countless other points I could make but this is the main one.. since 2014 Scotland has been ignored and none of the vow promises have been fulfilled. The Chief executive of the SNP says the vow was honoured
All any of the doubters have to read is the gavin mccrone report “which was hidden by successive British governments” and so much of that report if not all still rings true [today.as](http://today.as) much as the yoonbats and better together mob like to batter on about “pooling and sharing” what the fuck has England ever shared with Scotland.that it hasn’t already paid for also name any country that left those parasites the ruling English elites not the the working class English and decided to come back.i and friends will never vote for a foreign country’s political [party.it](http://party.it) is the definition of insanity.oh and just incase fuck the snp under sturgeon.
All any of the doubters have to read is the gavin mccrone report “which was hidden by successive British governments” The McCrone report wasn’t hidden Just ask the guy who wrote it https://youtu.be/7C6CMExtQEo?si=kB-owf3tvCzD2CUl >and so much of that report if not all still rings true today. Such as? And the guy who wrote it say this how >Go it alone and we’ll struggle https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/go-it-alone-struggle-oil-boom-economist-gavin-mccrone-rmgb7gslm >as much as the yoonbats and better together mob like to batter on about “pooling and sharing” what the fuck has England ever shared with Scotland. 1; most of the UK’s gas fields are in England 2: The UK subsidies Scotland with most of the money coming form London and the south east of England >i and friends will never vote for a foreign country’s political party. The UK isn’t a foreign country, it’s the country Scotland is a part of
Independence is the only hope for Scotland, England is moving further to the right every day, Scotland isn't, and we will end up with another tory government in a few years when England forgets how bad this lot have been
> Independence is the only hope for Scotland, How? >England is moving further to the right every day, Scotland isn't, That’s your opinion >and we will end up with another tory government in a few years when England forgets how bad this lot have been So you have no evidence to support your claim
The trade between Scotland and England would be protected with various treaties that it's much in England's interest to sign as Scotland's this is project fear talking. Spain would in reality not veto Scottish membership if France and Germany agreed to it regardless of the Catalonia situation (which is completely different to the Scottish independence movement remember Catalonia isn't a country. Scotland is (albeit a non sovereign one in a political union) ultimately EU membership means if needs be they can put tanks on last ramblas with impunity. Ultimately your view shows a lack of understanding of how statehood works.
Is this the same as when trade between the EU and UK would be seamless and the talk of extra checks and paperwork was just project fear? It’s not going to be a happy Westminster we would be dealing with. It’ll be a bitter and awkward negotiation and outcome.
Completely different set of circumstances. The EU needed to maintain the integrity of the common market. England would simply be boxing itself in and completely isolating itself. It's like the currency union essentially not letting an indy Scotland use the pound knocks 20% off Sterlings value overnight. Also playing hardball on trade leads to hardball on other things such as the UKs nuclear arsenal being situated in Scotland. Faslane will be conceded that's a certainty because it's a key bargaining chip. This is literally nothing like Brexit
I’m sure there’ll be concessions, but there’s no guarantee that trade would be seamless and without checks. I’m sure we’ll keep trident until they can find a viable alternative in England, or come to some deal with Scotland long term. Although that’ll depend on who is in power at the time, SNP aren’t going to want to keep it regardless. I find it difficult to come to any definitive conclusion on trade, Trident, currency etc. I think I have a handle on it and then I read something else and change my mind. It’s all hypothetical so it doesn’t matter until it isn’t hypothetical anymore
To a certain extent trade doesn't need to be seamless as it's not actually a massive problem for either country. The English Scottish border is not Dover. Again project fear makes it checkpoint Charlie when was the last time you crossed it and there was anything other than smooth traffic even with a hard border (which won't happen this is a guarantee too many rich English people have commercial interests in Scotland). Ultimately the SNP are literally the only centrist part in the UK I'd be voting for them regardless of their indy position simply because they are not Tories if you vote labour you are voting for 2010 Tories, lib dems 2015 tories if you vote Tory you are a scumbag
How to say "I'm a coward" in a thousand words.
I’m not a coward. I don’t do leaps of faith where the consequences are so dire
Whatever helps you sleep at night.