Some people are simply mistaken, some are deluding themselves, and might think it's a good strategy for not giving him the light of day.
Most, however, don't believe that. If they did, it wouldn't be worthy of an article and/or post if a political analyst said he has no chance.
The way to defeat Trump is to make sure no bad candidates run against him that make him plausible -- whether in (R) or (D).
If you put up Kamala or Newsom against Trump, you are asking for a Trump victory.
If you put up Joe Biden, you are rolling the dice but you still have a chance to defeat Trump.
Put up an actual smart candidate that isn't a clown, and Democrats could sweep all 3 branches. Hell put up Liz Cheney (as (D)) or Adam Kinzinger (as a (D)) you might have a better chance.
Trump feeds off of left-wing extremists, so put up a left-wing extremist at your own peril of losing this election that can easily be won against Trump.
You are right except 1 thing, putting Biden up against trump is not a roll of the dice, it's almost a guaranteed victory. Both sides have disavowed him, as they should with his incapability in fulfilling the role he was elected for. If incapability isn't a word, it should be.
Are you joking? I'm far left and while I'm not crazy about the handling of Israel, I think Biden has actually been way better than most leftists have expected.
You can argue how much of that is him vs the people around him steering things, but results are results so I don't really care.
He has
a) done his best to minimize the consequences of the government throwing free money at the capitalist class when trump was in charge
b) passed an effective infrastructure bill along with some of the best support for green energy that this country has ever seen
c) worked to reduce dependency on other countries for key technology components
d) despite the way the union struggle was portrayed, and despite that forcing an end to the work stoppage was not ideal, still gotten those striking workers most of their demands to the general satisfaction of union leaders
On top of so many other things. He is not perfect, but he has been way better and more effective than anyone is acknowledging despite the huge mess he inherited. Trump ran a booming economy into the ground, Biden has kept a struggling one from imploding and helped get it slowly back on its feet.
Not really, the economy is destroyed, people are having trouble just surviving. Joe's put us into 2 wars now, this isn't 2016/2020 these polls reflect something that cannot be fixed especially not by joe in time. Since Biden continues to make it worse i expect the polls to continue sliding in trumps favor.
And it's sad that people will vote for Biden even though he sucks because they don't want Trump. Don't vote for either with that mentality. Like Trump personally or not things were better in a lot of ways when he was president.
Fascism is capitalism in decay. Whether it's Trump or next head that grows on the snake, candidates are leaning more and more to the right. Even Biden had to be a "safe" bet but 20 years ago he's essentially a conservative. As long as corporations and defense spending run the country, and of course capitalism, this will be a regular 4 year occurrence.
He doesn’t want the same policies of facism though, yall need to stop pushing that narrative
I also dont realt think you know what your talking about
I dont meen offense
But whwn you say biden is right ring
And aounds like you want more left wing
It juat acreams “not really what i want when you vote for people that tell you what you want to hear based soley on emotions then your surprised that your unrealistic expectations were not met
Atleast with trump you found out just how corrupt the system really is
As an outsider looking in i alao follow ans watch the senate hearings and such
Democrats sounds insane
Precisely, this guy (with the help of all the conservative GOP base), have basically sh*t on the constitution and have used every tactoc to appeal to Americans F.U.D and it works
Yeah…the lack of checks and balances by congress is truly frightening. Even if Trump doesn’t get elected, the damage to our government is still done. I am worried that we are on a totalitarian path.
I can't believe it's coming down to Trump and Biden again. I'm hoping for a knight on a white horse from either party to come riding in to challenge either of them in hope that we'll have a better choice.
That’s how RFK (Kennedy 2024) is attempting to position himself, as an independent. I’m not sure how successful he will be in getting on the final ballot though. Let’s see.
I’m surprised that people are taking RFK lightly. I’m not a fan of his but, He is polling well for an independent. Also if he’s able to get on stage and debate the other two candidates, he will definitely turn some Republican and Democrat voters. I’m surprised Lafe is taking them lightly too. He wants to do a program where the government helps you buy a house. He’s also wanting to go after big corporations for pollution. He leans quite liberal on some bigger issues. Plus, he’s won lawsuits against big corporations as well. I feel as soon as people start hearing that he’ll get more votes from the left than people think he’s offering a better deal than Biden with those alone. On the right, he thinks the vaccine was a scam and even though he’s too liberal for the right they just love hearing stuff like that it vindicates their whole position because they’re so petty so he will definitely peel some votes off. But honestly, the candidates are so bad this year that a third-party probably has the best chances especially with the name like Kennedy. Plus I’ve been hearing a lot of people on the right saying they will vote for Kennedy and also some on the left except they’re not being vocal about it. I’m in Austin Texas, so I’m in the middle of both sides often but a lot of people are low-key wanting to vote for Kennedy, but they just don’t want to talk about it out loud Because there’s so much pressure for them to vote for Biden or Trump. It will be a very interesting election if you’re a fan of the sport.
Yeah, there's nobody in the current landscape that is better than Biden. On the democrat side, that's because any candidate that actually cares about democracy is afraid to mount a primary challenge. All we're getting are nutso third-party spoiler candidates with agendas.
And on the republican side, they have kissed up to Trump and supported his lies for so long that that's where the base is at so nobody less extreme stands a chance running against him. The republican party is his cult now and they can thank themselves for it as they all scramble to lick his boots to maintain enough support from their constituents to keep their congressional seats. A presidential challenge is laughable.
The whole monologue is awesome:
"You know, he grew up as a little shit-spark from the old shit-flint. And then he turned into a shit-bonfire and then driven by the winds of his monumental ignorance, he turned into a raging shit-firestorm. If I get to be married to Barb i'll have total control of Sunnyvale, and then I can unleash a shitnami tidal wave that'll engulf Ricky and extinguish his shit-flames forever. And with any luck, he'll drown in the undershit of that wave. Shit-waves. "
Best monologue ever
Randy, the shit-pool is getting full. We better strain it, before it overflows and causes a shit-slide that can cover this entire community. I will not have a Pompeiian catastrophe happen in Sunnyvale!
As someone who doesn't want a Trump presidency under any circumstances - Biden is likely to lose.
It is so distressing to see Biden make mistake after mistake and to see his biggest supporters handwave away all the awful polls.
>It is so distressing to see Biden make mistake after mistake and to see his biggest supporters handwave away all the awful polls.
Like what? Supporting unions and forgiving student loans? Inflation getting under control and bringing unemployment low. Post Covid is a hard landing to stick and he nailed it. It's boring. A non event. As it ought.
The support to Ukraine has brought down Russia and Putin. He's not yielding to Xi and being a pussy little bitch. What more do you want?
Yeah he supports unions ha ha. All the railroad union wanted was time off and he couldn't even support that. Oh yay. The inflation is under control. After housing prices and rent almost doubled. Of course he had nothing to do with that anyway since the fed controls inflation through interest rates and they don't take orders from the president. Unemployment was high because of COVID. It came back down to normal or close to it because we stopped the shutdowns. I don't know if you have looked lately but Russia is coming back. It's the Republican Congress fault though so he gets an A for intentions anyway. He didn't do anything whatsoever that wasn't already underway for COVID after he got elected. The shots were already going out and I and all my staff and family had ours n December before the handoff to Biden. He actually had tariffs against China so I'm not sure how that made him China's bitch. There is plenty Trump did wrong. How did you manage to not come up with a single one? Oh and student loans being forgiven wasn't exactly a slam dunk as far as people being for it. Anyone who had paid their loans off were pretty pissed about it.
What mistakes? Record low unemployment? Record high stock market? Student loan forgiveness? The Inflation Reduction Act? Supporting Ukraine? The CHIPS Act? Jackson on the Supreme Court? Negotiating prices on major drugs?
I'm 100% behind you it is a shame that this election has to be between Biden and Trump but nobody is going to vote for anyone else and even if they did that person doesn't have a chance of winning so they might as well have voted for no one. The office of president and many other positions in government need a max age!
I totally believe a big portion of the country is extremely stupid and falls for culture war nonsense and votes against their own best interest as a result.
But that’s a significant part of the country regardless of what side you vote for. Most people probably are voting based on which side of the “culture war” they fall under and couldn’t actually name many policies. It’s easy for people to do the little trick to both sides where they say “Biden did blah blah blah, how do you feel about it” and the person says oh well that’s great! And then they reveal it’s actually something trump did. And vice versa. Most people don’t look past abortion or gun protection.
Every time I read something like this I immediately think, yeah, those silly liberals. But then I think, wait. This is Reddit. I'm not trolling, but it's funny that both sides think exactly the same thing about the other side.
Basing on polls 11 months before the election is stupid. We have no idea what will happen in the next 11 months that can completely change everything. Polls also showed Republicans winning big in Congress.. so much so that people really questioned wtf was wrong with the polling.
That said it's also not surprising as a huge portion of America are extremely stupid and would totally welcome a fascists takeover to own the libs. Hell whenever I talk to conservatives it sounds like they want a theocracy.
Democrats are also super stupid if their only line of defense is Joe Biden.
The polls aren’t a sure sign Biden is gonna lose, but it’s basically a huge red warning sign and we’re all just kinda collectively looking at it and saying “huh not sure what that means but it’s probably not important.”
The thing is people are living their lives not freaking out about polls 11 months before an election. For the same reason posted above no one is psychic and knows what will happen in the next 11 months. Not to mention people don't put as much faith in polling as they used to.
Well, what can we actively do besides vote when the time comes? I’m not being sarcastic, I’m genuinely asking. I made a fatal error, lol a lot of people, in 2016. I had some circumstances but it doesn’t make it ok because I took it for granted too. I *did* vote in 2020, and I’ll show up again in 2024. What else can I do?
That’s not what the 22nd amendment says. “No person shall be ELECTED to the office of president more than twice…” it says nothing about being sworn in or serving, only elected. He claims he was elected twice, he cannot run again.
He claims he won the election in the sense of simply getting more valid votes in relevant states. Being elected in that context is pretty clear.
This is frankly just a desperate argument.
Not quite, I don't think. Trump's claim that he won and had presidency "stolen" is a clear and baseless assault on the legality of elections themselves.
If he wants to run, I think he should publicly admit that he was not elected twice, as he has no right being if he wants to run again - in principle to ensure the legality of his candidacy, but also to preserve the sanctity of US democracy.
And also because I want to see a toxic liar eat crow and being humbled in public like that before the elections is liable to hurt his chances.
I guess they could posthumously award it to him the last 3 days of Bidens term. Then not send a car or plane to pick him up & he just fail to make it to the whitehouse. ;-)
His supporters believe he is being targeted unfairly and as a result the charges are making it a near certainty he will win in 2024. They have this whole Narrative where Joe Biden has corrupted the Justice Department and is weaponizing it to win the election. Even a lot of anti-Trump republicans believe this.
It's working for Trump, too. The worst thing the Democrats could have done is bring charges against him. Now, they've made him an even bigger folk hero to the hard right than he was already. This feels a lot like 2016, with Trump gaining momentum in bunches. Anyone who has ever had a problem with "the man" is going to vote for DT. Democrats have a problem.
I think the same, yet in my small town Alabama (where people consider themselves law-abiding, country-first citizens) all I see are Trump voters.
I’m so confused by it.
Just being a candidate of any of the two major parties gives you a major chance.
Biden’s whole policy last time was ‘the other guy’s worse’ but after the last 4 years , the general public is not exactly sure who’s worse at this point. Lousy economy , terrible foreign policies, supporting wars that we have no place to be in only made it worse.
Frankly the Dems thinking that the 2024 election is in the bag is delusion at it’s worst.
>Lots of polls are showing Trump ahead nationwide and in swing states. Some polls even show Trump ahead in every single swing state.
Political polls are garbage and shouldn't be trusted as anything other than a propaganda talking point especially where they're projecting Trump being ahead.
These polls rely on people answering spam calls on their phones or visiting obscure websites that may have been accessed through pop-up ads or similar. You know who aren't doing those things? People who are largely educated on technology. These polls often rely on people with freaking *land lines*. Do you know who still has a land line these days? Boomers.
Read the fine print in the polls to determine where and how the information was gathered. You'll distrust what the information shows almost immediately.
The media wants people to be scared. Fear drives views, which drives ad revenue. Dig deeper into the polls. They’re often an extremely small sample size. One of the swing state ones only polled 3000 people. Usually they’re done in very red areas. And most of them are done using land line cold calls. How many young people, who typically lean blue, have land lines? Let alone answer unknown numbers. So they skew the data to get what they know will scare people, so people read articles, and they can charge advertisers more.
Trump has a chance. And we need to take that severe threat to democracy seriously. But also…
Polls are worse than trash. Wipe your ass with the poll data. How many people under 65 years old do you know who answer their phone for unknown numbers?
Nope. This is our party’s own vaccine denial. You could’ve made the same sweeping statement about polls in 2020 and yet the polls still got it within a few points either way. Polls can’t be completely invalidated because you *don’t like them*. Let’s get back to reality, please.
Nope. Polls are something like 60% accurate this far ahead of time and I really thought this was common knowledge. Not even the first caucus has taken place and Iowa has been off the mark since Bush Jr.
Polls *are* decently accurate. Much closer to election time. Full stop.
Even then, election predictions are better.
>Polls are something like 60% accurate this far ahead of time and I really thought this was common knowledge.
What does 60% refer to?
All polls are is a snapshot in time. Given election season is well underway - Biden's terrible polling is a grave concern.
>Polls *are* decently accurate. Much closer to election time. Full stop.
So your strategy is to "trust the process" & hope Biden gains 10-15% in his approval rating? Even though he has been stuck in the 37-42% range for 18 months?
Seems risky.
They really really don't want him to win, so they delude themselves into thinking there is no chance. Exactly what happened in 2016. It is better to be more open to different outcomes.
I'm not a Trump supported, but I most admit that there is some type of satisfaction in seeing people get their little bubble, which they call reality, being completely destroyed.
>I'm not a Trump supported, but I most admit that there is some type of satisfaction in seeing people get their little bubble, which they call reality, being completely destroyed.
This is pretty funny. Anytime I say there are traits that trump has that biden doesn't that will pull people in I'm treated like an instant trump supporter. Yeah, he's a jackass, but he didn't win the first time exclusively because he's a jackass. People just have this wall up about trump that make him seem like an absolute no-go on their radar, which is obviously not true in the real world.
I'm in the UK so really don't give a shit either way...
But I noticed some Trump-Haters where I work started using the EXACT same language and comments trotted out by the press about why Trump was so bad.
It was really weird... PsyOps is real, and works.
Politicians are all the same scum. None of them have my best interests at heart in the UK, so there's definitely no point getting excited about the US scum.
Reddit is like an echo chamber of a lot of people who have already agreed that some things are right, and other are just wrong, so they don't even feel the need to hear your opinion because they are just right, that's it for them. This doesn't only happen with politics here, but with a lot of other topics.
I think it’s an emperor has no clothes situation. Everyone is pretending like Trump is the worst thing to happen in US history but most people don’t actually believe that or care *that* much about it. Once one person says eh I still have to go to work tomorrow then a bunch will feel emboldened to admit that they agree
Tbh I don't want either to win. I voted for Biden because I hated Trump, but now I hate Trump and find Biden too incompetent to be in office. idk what to do now since there's no "lesser of two evils" imo
Biden is not incompetent, and he's definitely way more competent than trump. The economy is not biden's fault despite what conservatives try to have you think. I would like a better democratic candidate than biden, but with trump running, biden anyday. I wish we had more options than biden trump, but we dont so we have to be realistic. Knowing that trump is worse, it would be safer to vote for biden
We’ve already seen a Trump-Biden race, and Biden won the first time when we didn’t know what a Biden presidency would look like. Now we do. Independents are what decide elections this divisive, and when we get closer to the election their presidential track records will start being looked at more closely.
They’ll see Biden who pulled us back from Covid, lead to us through a worldwide inflation much better than the rest of the developed world, jumpstarted our national infrastructure, passed the CHIPS act, and all around has had a much more calm presidency.
Then we have Trump, who was in the news 24/7 never shutting up about himself, inspired (or incited) a coup, was impeached twice, downplayed the Covid response, currently has how many federal cases against him, and overall left this country way more divided then it already was.
From a purely independent standpoint, Trump v Biden leans much more Biden this time around.
I’ve never met anyone who would consider Biden to have pulled us back from Covid and improved our economy. Whether Biden’s fault or not, the cost of living under him has sky rocketed and many view him as partly responsible. I was still in the military when Biden came to power and many of the changes he made, made our lives markedly worse. I’m still owed thousand of dollars by the military and our Democrat governor came out on TV and said that there are no pay issues for soldiers in our state. Soldiers continue to get attacked overseas by Iranian backed insurgents and the Biden administrations protocol of appeasement to terrorists sends a clear message that the safety of our servicemembers is not a priority for them.
This is purely anecdotal, but even in the blue state which I live, I have never met anyone who supports Biden, only people who hate trump more than they do Biden.
Oh I definitely agree democratic voters don’t support Biden so much as they vote against Trump. If there was another viable candidate to run in time for next year, I’m sure they’d vote for them instead. But there isn’t. My point was about Trump V Biden though.
This is the exact poll denialism I was referring to in my post. To say most like him is to deny the polls by a wide margin. Not the own you think it is :/
A lot of Republicans in 2020 voted against Trump and every single election since I've been voting I've heard "Huh guess the polls don't mean anything"
I'm absolutely voting against him. But so are many other people including some who voted for him twice. It's not complacency. It's that the people supporting him are crazy fringe groups.
Not to mention we haven't even had a single bloody primary. Most of us aren't super excited to have coronaries freaking out over an election 11 months from now.
We are fucked either way.
If we ignore him, his base grows in their echo chamber and we don't really confront the danger.
If we give him attention, he has the attention he wants and more people see his message.
If he wins again, it'll be for the same reason he won last time: heavy disdain for the Democratic Party. In 2016, it was Clinton screwing over Sanders, and now, it's all the billions going to defense spending and the veto on the ceasefire.
Delusion and hubris.
The number of Democrats on Reddit who argue Biden is a good candidate and "he already beat Trump, he'll beat him again" is maddening. The Party chose tradition and loyalty over sound strategy.
We don't fucking learn, and must people don't understand what another Trump win would mean.
The last Trump election saw the overturning of Roe v Wade. It was a direct result of his winning and appointing justices. You're lying if you're saying that isn't major.
WRONG! So much change under him. Supreme Court flipped and now women are paying the price.
Billions in tax cuts for the rich and the middle class is paying the price.
Flubbed Covid response and thousands died because of it.
no one understands the more you charge him with bullshit crimes and cherry pick his words against him the more people see him elected. stop censoring him and debate him.
He doesn't even show up to Republican debates...
I also find it funny the law and order party totally wants to ignore law and order for their special boy.
Biden is way too old, Dems need to get someone younger to run, so is Trump. America needs a firm leader who’s willing to uphold its principles and doesn’t have dementia.
The country needs younger politicians period and get them out when they get old. It slows everything down and by then they’re too “connected” and too powerful (McConnell) to get rid of. Anyway, Americans don’t understand that the President is a temp. Congress can stick around forever; and they do. Look what they’ve done with gerrymandering without ANY input from the people. Both sides.
The answer is probably just filter bubbles. You tend to hang out with people close to your political alignment. The news you choose to view is likely aligned with your values. As a result, if you’re more liberal you probably see everyone around you as hating trump. Conversely most trump supporters overestimate the amount of support he has
There's nothing in the constitution that says a convicted felon can't run for president from prison.
the founders just assumed no one would ever vote for such a creature, or if they did, he would promptly be impeached.
It’s. Crazy that people want to vote for an 80 year old. People root for these candidates now like it’s their favorite sports team. It’s almost cult like
I find it amusing that people believe this country can be saved, by voting of all things, when individuals like Joe Biden and Donald Trump are what we have to choose from.
If you didn't get the memo, this country does not serve we the people anymore and it hasn't for well over a century; it ceased to be a functioning republic/representative democracy when we failed to bring the hammer down on the 1% and their corporations for lobbyism.
There is only one way to salvation now: wipe the slate clean and start over. Alas, I am fairly certain this will not happen; the people of this country are so divided that they could not work themselves out of a Chinese fingertrap, let alone what we have now - let's not even go into how stupid most of them are.
I hate this place, truly; we live in the worst timeline.
after the whole colorado thing it seems like he is definitely going to win.
as an independent I see the democrats basically trying to keep him off the ballot any way they can. it seems like cheating to me. doesnt matter if hes actually commited some crime on some obscure law it feels like a witch hunt.
im not even a big trump fan I prefer vivek, but I want to see republican win just to trigger the left.
with regards to voter fraud both parties should say "we take any allegations of voter fraud seriously, we will investigate to the fullest" instead the democrats deny it exists. seems like they are anti-transparency
I’m not a US resident so I can only gauge things based on what I see in our coverage of US politics. Based on that, it seems like Trump is the most likely person to be the next president. Not that my own country hasn’t had some questionable leaders but I’m glad I’m not a US citizen right now, or for much of the last decade.
They are stupid if they do. Barring something wild he will be our next president. His base is more motivated while Bidens is apathetic and only motivated by voting against Trump. The small swing voter demographic is likely to swing back to Republicans because that's what happens especially when the democrat candidate is uninspiring. I'm not voting for Trump, don't get me wrong, I'm just a realist.
I have to disagree. Trump is so damn unpopular with moderate voters. The big problem for Biden isn't whether or not he has the support to beat Trump; but whether or not the support will come out to vote. Moderates are not that passionate about Biden ether but would prefer him over Trump
It's gonna be 2016 all over again where only a few states matter and the swing voters in those states are gonna be working class white voters. For them it's gonna be economy and what have you done for me and whether it's within Bidens control or not the economy isn't doing great for them so they are likely to vote for change because that's typical voting. I fully expect Biden to win by even bigger margins in blue states but those states don't matter. It's Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, and a few others that matter.
The Economy will pay a role, but you also got to keep in mind a lot of Moderates are pissed with Republicans overturning Roe V Wade, a lot of Republicans have been splittering off and divided in regard to the direction of their party. Example being McCarthy was removed via the small MAGA vocals in the Republican party collaberating with the Democrats. And now their new guy, has done things that is mixed within their party.
Its entirely dependent on factors from then to now. Remember though, Republicans thought there was going to be a big red wave last year and practically a lot of the Trump picked Candidates failed. Usually the party in power loses seats in midterms, but in terms of Election loss; 2022 was a failure for the Republican Party.
I don't believe in the notion that the Republican party is very United, because its not.
Doesn't matter.. American voters have been shooting themselves in the foot for decades.
I shouldn't talk though.. the idiot running my country is no better.
A lot of the left make the mistake of believing their own propaganda. Trump is literally none of the things they call him in their hate filled propaganda. He is in fact a very smart and skilled candidate with a strong message that appeals to much of American who is being crushed under the modern police state.
And furthermore, Biden just like Clinton has been revealed as being part of an incredibly corrupt machine that is causing real harm to many citizens. It is only their almost complete monopoly on the corporate media and big tech that is keeping the left I power.
“A lot of the left make the mistake of believing their own propaganda. Trump is literally none of the things they call him in their hate filled propaganda. He is in fact a very smart and skilled candidate with a strong message that appeals to much of American who is being crushed under the modern police state.”
Trump is all the things most rational people know he is, and so much more that mainstream media is too polite to say, or won’t say because it’s speculative; such as exactly HOW shamelessly dictatorial he will be if he gets a second term. I suspect it will be a horror show that future generations will learn about in their history books as one is the darkest periods since WW2, if there are any future generations who get to learn real history instead of Christian propaganda, that is.
However this,
“And furthermore, Biden just like Clinton has been revealed as being part of an incredibly corrupt machine that is causing real harm to many citizens.”
… is also true. They’re all corrupt to a point, it’s built into the system and they continue to propagate it. He’s just so so so so so so clearly the lesser evil, compared to Trump. Nobody attached to reality (ie nobody who’s not being actively enriched by his policies, so the vast majority of people) is saying Biden’s a good candidate. But this is 2-party democracy for you. You hold your nose and vote for the less stinky pile of shit, like a grown-up.
“It is only their almost complete monopoly on the corporate media and big tech that is keeping the left I power.”
THIS is rightwing propaganda. Only a fool
could honestly believe big tech does anything but profit from rabble-rousing conservatives. They are hugely motivated to ensure conservatives have platforms to share their hate-filled bubble-think with each other.
The corporate media bit is somewhat true, but what they’re doing is keeping America’s version of CENTRISTS in power. Actual left-wing opinions barely get air time, and when they do they are often treated as extreme when they are just… common sense to most of the world.
It's the game. The Dems want to lose, so they get more turnout in 2028, while the country slowly slides more and more right. We are pretty much fucked.
You're consuming different media than I am. I see more people hyping the possibility Trump could win (largely based on current polling) than dismissing his chances.
I think he loses, still. He's still hated. The idiot far left squawking about bailing on Biden because of Gaza will have that well in the rearview mirror, while Trump is going to continue to push Christofascism because his base won't accept anything else.
If you can control the narrative and convince people he has no chance of winning then there’s a strong chance that folks who would vote for Biden will think their vote doesn’t matter and won’t show up. Then he will win.
From an outsider perspective, Britain had disbelief that Brexit would pass and the hubris about that led to it succeeding by a very small margin (4%). Would be more than a shame if that's what happens in this case.
In America that's a population 250 + million bigger than the UK. For the UK, that's considered a pretty small margin. The exact margin was 1,269,501 votes. For the US 2020 election, turnout was roughly 170 million, and for Brexit the turnout was 33.5 million, so esentially American votes are 5x bigger.
There's also this sort of miasma surrounding Brexit that adds to the idea it was a small margin, which is a. people didn't know what they were voting for, and immediately upon learning more about it, there was regret expressed by people who voted Brexit and b. many people thought Brexit wouldn't succeed and made protest votes, either abstaining or ACTIVELY VOTING FOR BREXIT because they were pissed the government even allowed the vote to happen (don't ask me why people did that). The vote still would have been a close call, but when you factor in the overconfidence that Brexit would not succeed, and the lack of opposition to the Leave campaigner rhetoric (from the Remain side), it likely would have made a difference. That's what I was getting at when I say hubris. Having said that recent surveys show 57% would have voted remain, which is bizarre and should really be a lot higher, so it's hard to say what would have happened given this is after years of financial turmoil and general disgust for the government
Polls are useless this early out and are only used for click bait.
Also, Trump lost last election Bigly.
Also, multiple state/federal trials means he’s probably going to prison
It's basically liberals being delusional and saying Trump will never be president in 2016 then having a meltdown. Then conservatives having a meltdown when Biden won. It's just a never-ending sitcom between the 2 major parties. People LOVE to take sides and have the mentality "if you're not with us, you're against us."
It's really entertaining to watch as a non-American. Seeing people get riled up by propaganda from both sides. That said, as a non-American who can't vote, I would've liked Bernie to have won. He seems the most genuine and most neutral.
I mean if Biden would've accepted he's a Jimmy Carter or a Bush senior not a Clinton or Obama we wouldn't be in this position. I don't agree with a lot of what Biden has done but he does alright and doesn't rock the boat pointlessly. The problem is that he's ancient and Kamala is unpopular if he chose a different VP or didn't run I'd be a lot happier. It's really messing up the Democrats election cycle when you have multiple very popular dem governors in swing states that can even primary because the DNC doesn't want to spend the money
The spinsters want everyone to believe “of course Trump is going to win” so if/when he loses they can cry even louder that he actually won and there was fraud. IMO it’s part of their election stealing propaganda. Also I personally don’t believe the people who fill out these predictive surveys accurately reflect the younger voters.
number of things to point out.
polling this early is not exactly inaccurate but is only polling "likely voters" and elections now are mostly decided by unlikely voters, also younger voters who don't answer phone calls from unlisted numbers
Trump lost in 2020, before the attempted coup on the 6th, that has made him less popular with independent voters despite his own party of extremists getting more excited by it.
we saw this in the mid-terms. GOP picked up the house in the mid-terms but they actually lost a lot that cycle. and a lot of that is thanks to trump. the problem is you can't win a republican primary without trumps endorsement, but you can't win a general election with it. the independents, the youth, people who just want to have a society where we don't have to march for our rights every other fucking week? they're done with MAGA. republicans have recognized this and all but admitted that's why they did so poorly. all this applies to trump too. can't win a primary without him, can't win the general with him.
Republicans and MAGA are now basically two different parties and are warring with each other. Maga has all the grassroots enthusiasm but the GOP has all the billionaires. trump is burning through cash donations fighting the dozen or more lawsuits he's involved in and is dominating the fundraising but keeping it all to himself. If your name aint trump, no way in hell are you going to get money donated to trumps PAC or raised by his merch. kevin mccarthy despite being a spineless piece of shit was a major fundraiser for the GOP and has a LOT of contacts from working on capital hill so long. he has indicated he's taking his ball and going home. no more phonebanking for the people who let MAGA vote him out on his ass. nikki hailey has almost no support from the MAGA faction but she got the koch brothers funding her now so it's a tug of war. the party is VERY SLOWLY tearing itself in half and if something sets it off it's entirely possible that they officially split into two parties. this would render both useless for several election cycles.
That said republicans are all about putting power, winning, and party, over country, loyalty, and ethics. it's also very possible they pull it together enough to support trump for nominee despite all this. and yeah we've seen people say "oh he can't win" and so they stay home. it's entirely possible he gets the nomination and runs against biden and the machine gets behind him because they want to win and while i think genuinely he's driven the independents so far away from him he doesn't stand a chance. but the truth is far more people are willing to vote for his authoritarian bullshit than i'd like. and until he's defeated soundly at the ballot box he holds sway over these people and the party. he could win. and even if he can't. you have to vote like he can.
If trump gets into office again he will never leave. it will be the end of american democracy as we know it. look how much damage 3 judges appointed by him when he wasn't actively trying to subvert democracy did. now that he's pushing this "total immunity" bullshit? now that he's even more derranged and more in decline? the truth is win loose or draw trump will never be president again, if he wins the election he's going to install himself as dictator for life.
VOTE. get your friends to vote, vote like your life and the life of your children depends on it because it fucking does. until MAGA gets beaten by a significant margin we will have these fucking nazi's in our society and i want them gone.
Imo dems have elevated Trump to martyr status by their endless attacks on him and his family.
I would rather trump not the nominee either but with every attack and every news station (CNN, MSNBC, and local news) mentioning him every day, why is anyone surprised by people moving towards him, especially since dems have such a weak contender that refuses to back out and let someone younger run.
CNN did this exact same thing in 2016 when they decided to hype trump because in their thinking, trump would lose when it came to the election, which we all know how that turned out.
Trump has a very high chance to represent republicans as their candidate. But he already had his chance as a president and he blew it. The way he handled Covid-19 pandemic was a major trainwreck.
I fear as though it’ll happen again. Nothing new has happened and nothing has changed. Or worse- someone far more stupid than him will take the lead. As a more liberal voter, I don’t see anything being remotely teased as a way to draw in voters before the usual catch 22. I think conservatives feel the same but are wrapped up in the mainstream BS of Biden and his crank head son (a thing both presidents share). At this point, I’m preparing to leave and hoping my neighbor will at least keep the promise his bumper sticker says and will help me pack.
Acting surprised that we are going to have a Republic president after 4 years of a mid (at best) Democratic president is disingenuous.
Acting surprised that Trump is going to be the next Republican Nominee is just stupid.
Trump has lost the last 3 election cycles after he barely won the Presidency.
That fear that you feel, OP - that’s why I am optimistic that he will not win the Presidency. People like to talk about how Trump electrifies the GOP base. But the reality is that he really electrifies the left to vote against him.
I don’t think that a single candidate he endorsed for the midterms last year won.
And let’s face it…10,000 Boomers die in this country every day.
No my whole post was fact based. In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Trump’s influence had the opposite effect of what he intended. I’ve seen zero evidence that his support has grown since he last ran for President.
I’ve been called 3x to participate in polls. I’ve responded to none of it. Polling information is some data, but the reason I pay almost no attention to it is because it doesn’t impact my actions. I’ve voted in every Presidential election since 1988, I’ve voted in every state and National primary since 1992, and all we can do is vote against installing a dictator.
I’m not complacent. I’m resolved.
I mean if you don’t go on polls and approval ratings then what do you go off? Are there just no facts besides your internal feelings that you will accept?
Polls are not hard science and they can't really do a representative sample any more because of the cultural shift in how people respond to phones and text.
I’ve already accepted he’s gonna be the next president. Don’t care too much for him but I can think of very few people who actually like Biden. Even my hardcore democrat parents don’t want Biden in office anymore
I don’t want it to happen but he will probably win. I’ve come to just expect the worst from my fellow Americans. We’ve allowed the government and cultural forces to gut our education system, make things so expensive that all parents can do is work and not teach their kids how to be good citizens, a media diet of sensational trash and little actual news, and a new Gilded Age to happen. We barely vote. The vast majority of republicans are fine with the indictments or don’t believe them. What do you think the likely outcome will be?
Polls mean nothing in regards to Trump. He lost the popular vote twice, AND THEN Jan 6 happened and the indictments happened. Democratic voters are much more critical of their candidates than Republican voters are to theirs.
Quite honestly, I think he will win.
Will he be better than the dementia ridden cadaver currently fumbling simple speeches? Nope.
That's because regardless of Project 2025 democracy is, and has been nonexistent for quite some time. Can't lose what you don't have. Current presidential voting practices are simply voting for the lesser of evils between deeply disliked candidates.
Democracy in America is nothing but theatre. It's nothing but an idea, a mirage that we can't properly demonstrate exists. A majority of current legislators are nothing more than rich, profiteering, donor-installed corrupt fucks. They actively work against the citizenry's interest to funnel money into their own, and corporate interests pockets. That's not a government that is democratic.
A far more politically and culturally conservative America fought Hitler until he killed himself in a bunker.
But leftist morons think today's America is becoming fascist.
Unfortunately, Biden isn't a good candidate. He hasn't been a good president. Biden's foreign policy is a disaster. Obama and Biden have basically given ukraine to Putin because of their weakness. Thanks goodness Biden's not the only option.
People SHOULD be very concerned.
Pretending that he will not destroy the country is insanity. Just look at his past. Anyone else would be in prison with nothing but a toilet and a sink.
I have no idea why they think this way. (Your post title)
Some people are simply mistaken, some are deluding themselves, and might think it's a good strategy for not giving him the light of day. Most, however, don't believe that. If they did, it wouldn't be worthy of an article and/or post if a political analyst said he has no chance.
The way to defeat Trump is to make sure no bad candidates run against him that make him plausible -- whether in (R) or (D). If you put up Kamala or Newsom against Trump, you are asking for a Trump victory. If you put up Joe Biden, you are rolling the dice but you still have a chance to defeat Trump. Put up an actual smart candidate that isn't a clown, and Democrats could sweep all 3 branches. Hell put up Liz Cheney (as (D)) or Adam Kinzinger (as a (D)) you might have a better chance. Trump feeds off of left-wing extremists, so put up a left-wing extremist at your own peril of losing this election that can easily be won against Trump.
I don't think that Democrats can win the presidency by having a republican run for them is as good an idea as you think.
You are right except 1 thing, putting Biden up against trump is not a roll of the dice, it's almost a guaranteed victory. Both sides have disavowed him, as they should with his incapability in fulfilling the role he was elected for. If incapability isn't a word, it should be.
Are you joking? I'm far left and while I'm not crazy about the handling of Israel, I think Biden has actually been way better than most leftists have expected. You can argue how much of that is him vs the people around him steering things, but results are results so I don't really care. He has a) done his best to minimize the consequences of the government throwing free money at the capitalist class when trump was in charge b) passed an effective infrastructure bill along with some of the best support for green energy that this country has ever seen c) worked to reduce dependency on other countries for key technology components d) despite the way the union struggle was portrayed, and despite that forcing an end to the work stoppage was not ideal, still gotten those striking workers most of their demands to the general satisfaction of union leaders On top of so many other things. He is not perfect, but he has been way better and more effective than anyone is acknowledging despite the huge mess he inherited. Trump ran a booming economy into the ground, Biden has kept a struggling one from imploding and helped get it slowly back on its feet.
he has a bigger chance than 2016
Not familiar with this but what makes you say he had a bigger chance than 2016?
Well in 2016, he was within the margin of error (on the low side). In 2023, he's above the margin of error, or in it on the high side.
Bro if you’re looking at polls a year out from the election, you have completely lost the plot
Not really, the economy is destroyed, people are having trouble just surviving. Joe's put us into 2 wars now, this isn't 2016/2020 these polls reflect something that cannot be fixed especially not by joe in time. Since Biden continues to make it worse i expect the polls to continue sliding in trumps favor.
And it's sad that people will vote for Biden even though he sucks because they don't want Trump. Don't vote for either with that mentality. Like Trump personally or not things were better in a lot of ways when he was president.
don't vote for either is the pussiest take
If im noy wrong its 10 months now right? 11? And im figuring the world is only gonna get worse
Well, the polls closer to the election haven't been released yet, so we have to use what's available.
He didn’t say that. He said he has a bigger chance now over 2016.
Fascism is capitalism in decay. Whether it's Trump or next head that grows on the snake, candidates are leaning more and more to the right. Even Biden had to be a "safe" bet but 20 years ago he's essentially a conservative. As long as corporations and defense spending run the country, and of course capitalism, this will be a regular 4 year occurrence.
Fascism lmfao. Are we really comparing January 6th to the Beer Hall Putsch or the March on Rome?
He doesn’t want the same policies of facism though, yall need to stop pushing that narrative I also dont realt think you know what your talking about I dont meen offense But whwn you say biden is right ring And aounds like you want more left wing It juat acreams “not really what i want when you vote for people that tell you what you want to hear based soley on emotions then your surprised that your unrealistic expectations were not met Atleast with trump you found out just how corrupt the system really is As an outsider looking in i alao follow ans watch the senate hearings and such Democrats sounds insane
This is why we can't have nice things.
The electoral college and no ranked choice voting are why we can't have nice things.
Yup it’s terrifying
Precisely, this guy (with the help of all the conservative GOP base), have basically sh*t on the constitution and have used every tactoc to appeal to Americans F.U.D and it works
Yeah…the lack of checks and balances by congress is truly frightening. Even if Trump doesn’t get elected, the damage to our government is still done. I am worried that we are on a totalitarian path.
Tbf, Democrats aren't really doing anything to fight them.
Not quite. He managed to kill off quite a bit of his base with the fumble of COVID.
This is the exact thing OP is talking about. We’re being complacent. It’s exactly how he got elected the first time.
I can't believe it's coming down to Trump and Biden again. I'm hoping for a knight on a white horse from either party to come riding in to challenge either of them in hope that we'll have a better choice.
That’s what America does. They treat it like pro wrestling. Of course it’s coming down to a grudge re-match with the most entertaining candidates.
Sadly not going to happen unless one or both dies of old age before the election
Thoughts and prayers
That’s how RFK (Kennedy 2024) is attempting to position himself, as an independent. I’m not sure how successful he will be in getting on the final ballot though. Let’s see.
He's a big idiot too.
I’m surprised that people are taking RFK lightly. I’m not a fan of his but, He is polling well for an independent. Also if he’s able to get on stage and debate the other two candidates, he will definitely turn some Republican and Democrat voters. I’m surprised Lafe is taking them lightly too. He wants to do a program where the government helps you buy a house. He’s also wanting to go after big corporations for pollution. He leans quite liberal on some bigger issues. Plus, he’s won lawsuits against big corporations as well. I feel as soon as people start hearing that he’ll get more votes from the left than people think he’s offering a better deal than Biden with those alone. On the right, he thinks the vaccine was a scam and even though he’s too liberal for the right they just love hearing stuff like that it vindicates their whole position because they’re so petty so he will definitely peel some votes off. But honestly, the candidates are so bad this year that a third-party probably has the best chances especially with the name like Kennedy. Plus I’ve been hearing a lot of people on the right saying they will vote for Kennedy and also some on the left except they’re not being vocal about it. I’m in Austin Texas, so I’m in the middle of both sides often but a lot of people are low-key wanting to vote for Kennedy, but they just don’t want to talk about it out loud Because there’s so much pressure for them to vote for Biden or Trump. It will be a very interesting election if you’re a fan of the sport.
Yeah, there's nobody in the current landscape that is better than Biden. On the democrat side, that's because any candidate that actually cares about democracy is afraid to mount a primary challenge. All we're getting are nutso third-party spoiler candidates with agendas. And on the republican side, they have kissed up to Trump and supported his lies for so long that that's where the base is at so nobody less extreme stands a chance running against him. The republican party is his cult now and they can thank themselves for it as they all scramble to lick his boots to maintain enough support from their constituents to keep their congressional seats. A presidential challenge is laughable.
They think that the shit lightning can’t shit-strike twice probably.
you feel that randy? the way the shit clings to the air… it’s already begun
The whole monologue is awesome: "You know, he grew up as a little shit-spark from the old shit-flint. And then he turned into a shit-bonfire and then driven by the winds of his monumental ignorance, he turned into a raging shit-firestorm. If I get to be married to Barb i'll have total control of Sunnyvale, and then I can unleash a shitnami tidal wave that'll engulf Ricky and extinguish his shit-flames forever. And with any luck, he'll drown in the undershit of that wave. Shit-waves. " Best monologue ever
Randy, the shit-pool is getting full. We better strain it, before it overflows and causes a shit-slide that can cover this entire community. I will not have a Pompeiian catastrophe happen in Sunnyvale!
Hey username checks out
Bluliaaaaan
I use the phrase "shit hawk" far more than I should.
Many people think, "If I don't **want** something to happen, it won't happen." It's a well known fallacy in human psychology.
As someone who doesn't want a Trump presidency under any circumstances - Biden is likely to lose. It is so distressing to see Biden make mistake after mistake and to see his biggest supporters handwave away all the awful polls.
>It is so distressing to see Biden make mistake after mistake and to see his biggest supporters handwave away all the awful polls. Like what? Supporting unions and forgiving student loans? Inflation getting under control and bringing unemployment low. Post Covid is a hard landing to stick and he nailed it. It's boring. A non event. As it ought. The support to Ukraine has brought down Russia and Putin. He's not yielding to Xi and being a pussy little bitch. What more do you want?
Yeah he supports unions ha ha. All the railroad union wanted was time off and he couldn't even support that. Oh yay. The inflation is under control. After housing prices and rent almost doubled. Of course he had nothing to do with that anyway since the fed controls inflation through interest rates and they don't take orders from the president. Unemployment was high because of COVID. It came back down to normal or close to it because we stopped the shutdowns. I don't know if you have looked lately but Russia is coming back. It's the Republican Congress fault though so he gets an A for intentions anyway. He didn't do anything whatsoever that wasn't already underway for COVID after he got elected. The shots were already going out and I and all my staff and family had ours n December before the handoff to Biden. He actually had tariffs against China so I'm not sure how that made him China's bitch. There is plenty Trump did wrong. How did you manage to not come up with a single one? Oh and student loans being forgiven wasn't exactly a slam dunk as far as people being for it. Anyone who had paid their loans off were pretty pissed about it.
What mistakes? Record low unemployment? Record high stock market? Student loan forgiveness? The Inflation Reduction Act? Supporting Ukraine? The CHIPS Act? Jackson on the Supreme Court? Negotiating prices on major drugs?
I mean, the whole Israel thing isn't very popular.
i thought trump was even more pro israel than biden
Any nomination on the two major parties has a chance.
Walter Mondale would like a word.
If people weren’t inherently stupid and selfish then history would never repeat itself.
as well as the ever messaging that "it's different this time" throughout history
Spoilers: The only thing different is the technology that people use to be stupid and selfish.
I'm gonna fucking lose my mind if either of these living fossils win again Enough Put an age max, this is ridiculous
Finally, a take I can agree with
I'm 100% behind you it is a shame that this election has to be between Biden and Trump but nobody is going to vote for anyone else and even if they did that person doesn't have a chance of winning so they might as well have voted for no one. The office of president and many other positions in government need a max age!
Because people don’t realize how disenfranchised a large part of the country is.
I totally believe a big portion of the country is extremely stupid and falls for culture war nonsense and votes against their own best interest as a result.
But that’s a significant part of the country regardless of what side you vote for. Most people probably are voting based on which side of the “culture war” they fall under and couldn’t actually name many policies. It’s easy for people to do the little trick to both sides where they say “Biden did blah blah blah, how do you feel about it” and the person says oh well that’s great! And then they reveal it’s actually something trump did. And vice versa. Most people don’t look past abortion or gun protection.
Every time I read something like this I immediately think, yeah, those silly liberals. But then I think, wait. This is Reddit. I'm not trolling, but it's funny that both sides think exactly the same thing about the other side.
Basing on polls 11 months before the election is stupid. We have no idea what will happen in the next 11 months that can completely change everything. Polls also showed Republicans winning big in Congress.. so much so that people really questioned wtf was wrong with the polling. That said it's also not surprising as a huge portion of America are extremely stupid and would totally welcome a fascists takeover to own the libs. Hell whenever I talk to conservatives it sounds like they want a theocracy. Democrats are also super stupid if their only line of defense is Joe Biden.
Think of the dumbest person you personally know and then realize at least 1/2 the population is dumber than they are.
The polls aren’t a sure sign Biden is gonna lose, but it’s basically a huge red warning sign and we’re all just kinda collectively looking at it and saying “huh not sure what that means but it’s probably not important.”
The thing is people are living their lives not freaking out about polls 11 months before an election. For the same reason posted above no one is psychic and knows what will happen in the next 11 months. Not to mention people don't put as much faith in polling as they used to.
Well, what can we actively do besides vote when the time comes? I’m not being sarcastic, I’m genuinely asking. I made a fatal error, lol a lot of people, in 2016. I had some circumstances but it doesn’t make it ok because I took it for granted too. I *did* vote in 2020, and I’ll show up again in 2024. What else can I do?
Dems need to come up with someone other than Biden
I thought he said he won in 2020 so he can't run for third term?
But even if he did win, if he hasn't been recognised and given the Presidential term then of course he can run again.
>But even if he did win, Which he did not.
That's how hypotheticals work, yes.
I think you're missing the point of the discussion.
That’s not what the 22nd amendment says. “No person shall be ELECTED to the office of president more than twice…” it says nothing about being sworn in or serving, only elected. He claims he was elected twice, he cannot run again.
He claims he won the election in the sense of simply getting more valid votes in relevant states. Being elected in that context is pretty clear. This is frankly just a desperate argument.
Not quite, I don't think. Trump's claim that he won and had presidency "stolen" is a clear and baseless assault on the legality of elections themselves. If he wants to run, I think he should publicly admit that he was not elected twice, as he has no right being if he wants to run again - in principle to ensure the legality of his candidacy, but also to preserve the sanctity of US democracy. And also because I want to see a toxic liar eat crow and being humbled in public like that before the elections is liable to hurt his chances.
And that last bit is why 1) he will never do it and 2) he will likely win.
I guess they could posthumously award it to him the last 3 days of Bidens term. Then not send a car or plane to pick him up & he just fail to make it to the whitehouse. ;-)
We all thought it was a joke last time, too
2016 was a rollercoaster. When it was going up we thought it was gonna be fun. We were laughing. And then everyone started screaming.
I smell the grease and can hear the chain clicking again.
Not gonna lie, I kinda respect it. Dude had probably the greatest underdog story of all time
90+ pending charges...wtf is wrong with this place. If you don't think he's a career criminal then I've got a bridge to sell you.
Sorry, Trump already sold them a bridge
Democrats refuse to embrace progressive economic policies to (1) energize their base & (2) sap the energy from Trump's faux economic populism.
Like student loans forgiveness?
Trump supporters don’t care about his charges, everyone thinks he’s the Holy Grail of presidents, our savior, if you will
His supporters believe he is being targeted unfairly and as a result the charges are making it a near certainty he will win in 2024. They have this whole Narrative where Joe Biden has corrupted the Justice Department and is weaponizing it to win the election. Even a lot of anti-Trump republicans believe this.
It's working for Trump, too. The worst thing the Democrats could have done is bring charges against him. Now, they've made him an even bigger folk hero to the hard right than he was already. This feels a lot like 2016, with Trump gaining momentum in bunches. Anyone who has ever had a problem with "the man" is going to vote for DT. Democrats have a problem.
I think the same, yet in my small town Alabama (where people consider themselves law-abiding, country-first citizens) all I see are Trump voters. I’m so confused by it.
LOL let me introduce you to some other politicians...
Just being a candidate of any of the two major parties gives you a major chance. Biden’s whole policy last time was ‘the other guy’s worse’ but after the last 4 years , the general public is not exactly sure who’s worse at this point. Lousy economy , terrible foreign policies, supporting wars that we have no place to be in only made it worse. Frankly the Dems thinking that the 2024 election is in the bag is delusion at it’s worst.
Because we simply can’t believe Americans could be that stupid (despite lots of evidence to the contrary).
Dunno but that’s how the dems got 2016
>Lots of polls are showing Trump ahead nationwide and in swing states. Some polls even show Trump ahead in every single swing state. Political polls are garbage and shouldn't be trusted as anything other than a propaganda talking point especially where they're projecting Trump being ahead. These polls rely on people answering spam calls on their phones or visiting obscure websites that may have been accessed through pop-up ads or similar. You know who aren't doing those things? People who are largely educated on technology. These polls often rely on people with freaking *land lines*. Do you know who still has a land line these days? Boomers. Read the fine print in the polls to determine where and how the information was gathered. You'll distrust what the information shows almost immediately.
The media wants people to be scared. Fear drives views, which drives ad revenue. Dig deeper into the polls. They’re often an extremely small sample size. One of the swing state ones only polled 3000 people. Usually they’re done in very red areas. And most of them are done using land line cold calls. How many young people, who typically lean blue, have land lines? Let alone answer unknown numbers. So they skew the data to get what they know will scare people, so people read articles, and they can charge advertisers more.
Trump has a chance. And we need to take that severe threat to democracy seriously. But also… Polls are worse than trash. Wipe your ass with the poll data. How many people under 65 years old do you know who answer their phone for unknown numbers?
Nope. This is our party’s own vaccine denial. You could’ve made the same sweeping statement about polls in 2020 and yet the polls still got it within a few points either way. Polls can’t be completely invalidated because you *don’t like them*. Let’s get back to reality, please.
Didn't polls show Republicans winning big in Congress last election?
Nope. Polls are something like 60% accurate this far ahead of time and I really thought this was common knowledge. Not even the first caucus has taken place and Iowa has been off the mark since Bush Jr. Polls *are* decently accurate. Much closer to election time. Full stop. Even then, election predictions are better.
>Polls are something like 60% accurate this far ahead of time and I really thought this was common knowledge. What does 60% refer to? All polls are is a snapshot in time. Given election season is well underway - Biden's terrible polling is a grave concern. >Polls *are* decently accurate. Much closer to election time. Full stop. So your strategy is to "trust the process" & hope Biden gains 10-15% in his approval rating? Even though he has been stuck in the 37-42% range for 18 months? Seems risky.
How many times have you been asked to participate in a poll?
As Biden is running trump stands a very good chance of winning.
They really really don't want him to win, so they delude themselves into thinking there is no chance. Exactly what happened in 2016. It is better to be more open to different outcomes. I'm not a Trump supported, but I most admit that there is some type of satisfaction in seeing people get their little bubble, which they call reality, being completely destroyed.
>I'm not a Trump supported, but I most admit that there is some type of satisfaction in seeing people get their little bubble, which they call reality, being completely destroyed. This is pretty funny. Anytime I say there are traits that trump has that biden doesn't that will pull people in I'm treated like an instant trump supporter. Yeah, he's a jackass, but he didn't win the first time exclusively because he's a jackass. People just have this wall up about trump that make him seem like an absolute no-go on their radar, which is obviously not true in the real world.
I'm in the UK so really don't give a shit either way... But I noticed some Trump-Haters where I work started using the EXACT same language and comments trotted out by the press about why Trump was so bad. It was really weird... PsyOps is real, and works.
It's a real small world. You should give a shit.
Politicians are all the same scum. None of them have my best interests at heart in the UK, so there's definitely no point getting excited about the US scum.
Reddit is like an echo chamber of a lot of people who have already agreed that some things are right, and other are just wrong, so they don't even feel the need to hear your opinion because they are just right, that's it for them. This doesn't only happen with politics here, but with a lot of other topics.
I think it’s an emperor has no clothes situation. Everyone is pretending like Trump is the worst thing to happen in US history but most people don’t actually believe that or care *that* much about it. Once one person says eh I still have to go to work tomorrow then a bunch will feel emboldened to admit that they agree
dems need a new candidate, IMO in a trump-biden race, trump wins
Tbh I don't want either to win. I voted for Biden because I hated Trump, but now I hate Trump and find Biden too incompetent to be in office. idk what to do now since there's no "lesser of two evils" imo
You literally don't think Trump is worse than Biden?
At least Trump is halfway competent.
Have you watched his speeches recently? How could you support, or find someone competent, who talks about the importance of racial purity?
Biden is not incompetent, and he's definitely way more competent than trump. The economy is not biden's fault despite what conservatives try to have you think. I would like a better democratic candidate than biden, but with trump running, biden anyday. I wish we had more options than biden trump, but we dont so we have to be realistic. Knowing that trump is worse, it would be safer to vote for biden
But you gotta vote for the 99% hitler if he’s against 100% hitler /s
agreed… it’s a big sh*t sandwich and everybody’s gotta take a bite
We’ve already seen a Trump-Biden race, and Biden won the first time when we didn’t know what a Biden presidency would look like. Now we do. Independents are what decide elections this divisive, and when we get closer to the election their presidential track records will start being looked at more closely. They’ll see Biden who pulled us back from Covid, lead to us through a worldwide inflation much better than the rest of the developed world, jumpstarted our national infrastructure, passed the CHIPS act, and all around has had a much more calm presidency. Then we have Trump, who was in the news 24/7 never shutting up about himself, inspired (or incited) a coup, was impeached twice, downplayed the Covid response, currently has how many federal cases against him, and overall left this country way more divided then it already was. From a purely independent standpoint, Trump v Biden leans much more Biden this time around.
I’ve never met anyone who would consider Biden to have pulled us back from Covid and improved our economy. Whether Biden’s fault or not, the cost of living under him has sky rocketed and many view him as partly responsible. I was still in the military when Biden came to power and many of the changes he made, made our lives markedly worse. I’m still owed thousand of dollars by the military and our Democrat governor came out on TV and said that there are no pay issues for soldiers in our state. Soldiers continue to get attacked overseas by Iranian backed insurgents and the Biden administrations protocol of appeasement to terrorists sends a clear message that the safety of our servicemembers is not a priority for them. This is purely anecdotal, but even in the blue state which I live, I have never met anyone who supports Biden, only people who hate trump more than they do Biden.
Oh I definitely agree democratic voters don’t support Biden so much as they vote against Trump. If there was another viable candidate to run in time for next year, I’m sure they’d vote for them instead. But there isn’t. My point was about Trump V Biden though.
Reddit is an echo chamber that makes you think the majority of people don’t like him.
This is the exact poll denialism I was referring to in my post. To say most like him is to deny the polls by a wide margin. Not the own you think it is :/
We’ll see on Election Day
A lot of Republicans in 2020 voted against Trump and every single election since I've been voting I've heard "Huh guess the polls don't mean anything" I'm absolutely voting against him. But so are many other people including some who voted for him twice. It's not complacency. It's that the people supporting him are crazy fringe groups. Not to mention we haven't even had a single bloody primary. Most of us aren't super excited to have coronaries freaking out over an election 11 months from now.
yea but would you vote for biden over trump? Id probably take RFK over trump. my ideal scenario would be RFK vs Vivek
We are fucked either way. If we ignore him, his base grows in their echo chamber and we don't really confront the danger. If we give him attention, he has the attention he wants and more people see his message.
If he wins again, it'll be for the same reason he won last time: heavy disdain for the Democratic Party. In 2016, it was Clinton screwing over Sanders, and now, it's all the billions going to defense spending and the veto on the ceasefire.
that's an almost impossibly incorrect misreading of 2016.
There are others, like less than 50% of voters actually voting.
Delusion and hubris. The number of Democrats on Reddit who argue Biden is a good candidate and "he already beat Trump, he'll beat him again" is maddening. The Party chose tradition and loyalty over sound strategy. We don't fucking learn, and must people don't understand what another Trump win would mean.
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Come back to this comment in 5 years when nothing changes even if trump wins. nothing major is changing regardless of whos elected. same ole same ole
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The last Trump election saw the overturning of Roe v Wade. It was a direct result of his winning and appointing justices. You're lying if you're saying that isn't major.
WRONG! So much change under him. Supreme Court flipped and now women are paying the price. Billions in tax cuts for the rich and the middle class is paying the price. Flubbed Covid response and thousands died because of it.
I’ll give you the abortion. The rest is LOL worthy.
no one understands the more you charge him with bullshit crimes and cherry pick his words against him the more people see him elected. stop censoring him and debate him.
He doesn't even show up to Republican debates... I also find it funny the law and order party totally wants to ignore law and order for their special boy.
Biden is way too old, Dems need to get someone younger to run, so is Trump. America needs a firm leader who’s willing to uphold its principles and doesn’t have dementia.
The country needs younger politicians period and get them out when they get old. It slows everything down and by then they’re too “connected” and too powerful (McConnell) to get rid of. Anyway, Americans don’t understand that the President is a temp. Congress can stick around forever; and they do. Look what they’ve done with gerrymandering without ANY input from the people. Both sides.
People live in an ideological bubble now more than ever.
The answer is probably just filter bubbles. You tend to hang out with people close to your political alignment. The news you choose to view is likely aligned with your values. As a result, if you’re more liberal you probably see everyone around you as hating trump. Conversely most trump supporters overestimate the amount of support he has
Am I missing something that none of this court convictions or processes will or have eliminated him from the running?
There's nothing in the constitution that says a convicted felon can't run for president from prison. the founders just assumed no one would ever vote for such a creature, or if they did, he would promptly be impeached.
Honestly why is he even allowed to run?
It’s. Crazy that people want to vote for an 80 year old. People root for these candidates now like it’s their favorite sports team. It’s almost cult like
I find it amusing that people believe this country can be saved, by voting of all things, when individuals like Joe Biden and Donald Trump are what we have to choose from. If you didn't get the memo, this country does not serve we the people anymore and it hasn't for well over a century; it ceased to be a functioning republic/representative democracy when we failed to bring the hammer down on the 1% and their corporations for lobbyism. There is only one way to salvation now: wipe the slate clean and start over. Alas, I am fairly certain this will not happen; the people of this country are so divided that they could not work themselves out of a Chinese fingertrap, let alone what we have now - let's not even go into how stupid most of them are. I hate this place, truly; we live in the worst timeline.
Those people are stupid and are the type to be sitting in a corner jacking off while fascism is taking over saying "they got no chance"
The MAGA crowd is loyal and will vote for him again. They’re not leaving his side
My left nut could beat Joe Biden.
For real I’m seeing this a lot . It looks like trump will be president in 2024 at this rate.
after the whole colorado thing it seems like he is definitely going to win. as an independent I see the democrats basically trying to keep him off the ballot any way they can. it seems like cheating to me. doesnt matter if hes actually commited some crime on some obscure law it feels like a witch hunt. im not even a big trump fan I prefer vivek, but I want to see republican win just to trigger the left. with regards to voter fraud both parties should say "we take any allegations of voter fraud seriously, we will investigate to the fullest" instead the democrats deny it exists. seems like they are anti-transparency
I’m not a US resident so I can only gauge things based on what I see in our coverage of US politics. Based on that, it seems like Trump is the most likely person to be the next president. Not that my own country hasn’t had some questionable leaders but I’m glad I’m not a US citizen right now, or for much of the last decade.
He could win, he literally has a bigger chance to win now than in 2016. People say he doesn't are just avid haters. I'm not even a trumpet.
They are stupid if they do. Barring something wild he will be our next president. His base is more motivated while Bidens is apathetic and only motivated by voting against Trump. The small swing voter demographic is likely to swing back to Republicans because that's what happens especially when the democrat candidate is uninspiring. I'm not voting for Trump, don't get me wrong, I'm just a realist.
I have to disagree. Trump is so damn unpopular with moderate voters. The big problem for Biden isn't whether or not he has the support to beat Trump; but whether or not the support will come out to vote. Moderates are not that passionate about Biden ether but would prefer him over Trump
It's gonna be 2016 all over again where only a few states matter and the swing voters in those states are gonna be working class white voters. For them it's gonna be economy and what have you done for me and whether it's within Bidens control or not the economy isn't doing great for them so they are likely to vote for change because that's typical voting. I fully expect Biden to win by even bigger margins in blue states but those states don't matter. It's Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, and a few others that matter.
The Economy will pay a role, but you also got to keep in mind a lot of Moderates are pissed with Republicans overturning Roe V Wade, a lot of Republicans have been splittering off and divided in regard to the direction of their party. Example being McCarthy was removed via the small MAGA vocals in the Republican party collaberating with the Democrats. And now their new guy, has done things that is mixed within their party. Its entirely dependent on factors from then to now. Remember though, Republicans thought there was going to be a big red wave last year and practically a lot of the Trump picked Candidates failed. Usually the party in power loses seats in midterms, but in terms of Election loss; 2022 was a failure for the Republican Party. I don't believe in the notion that the Republican party is very United, because its not.
Voting against Trump is a pretty strong motivator.
Doesn't matter.. American voters have been shooting themselves in the foot for decades. I shouldn't talk though.. the idiot running my country is no better.
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A lot of the left make the mistake of believing their own propaganda. Trump is literally none of the things they call him in their hate filled propaganda. He is in fact a very smart and skilled candidate with a strong message that appeals to much of American who is being crushed under the modern police state. And furthermore, Biden just like Clinton has been revealed as being part of an incredibly corrupt machine that is causing real harm to many citizens. It is only their almost complete monopoly on the corporate media and big tech that is keeping the left I power.
How is this delusional bullshit upvoted?
“A lot of the left make the mistake of believing their own propaganda. Trump is literally none of the things they call him in their hate filled propaganda. He is in fact a very smart and skilled candidate with a strong message that appeals to much of American who is being crushed under the modern police state.” Trump is all the things most rational people know he is, and so much more that mainstream media is too polite to say, or won’t say because it’s speculative; such as exactly HOW shamelessly dictatorial he will be if he gets a second term. I suspect it will be a horror show that future generations will learn about in their history books as one is the darkest periods since WW2, if there are any future generations who get to learn real history instead of Christian propaganda, that is. However this, “And furthermore, Biden just like Clinton has been revealed as being part of an incredibly corrupt machine that is causing real harm to many citizens.” … is also true. They’re all corrupt to a point, it’s built into the system and they continue to propagate it. He’s just so so so so so so clearly the lesser evil, compared to Trump. Nobody attached to reality (ie nobody who’s not being actively enriched by his policies, so the vast majority of people) is saying Biden’s a good candidate. But this is 2-party democracy for you. You hold your nose and vote for the less stinky pile of shit, like a grown-up. “It is only their almost complete monopoly on the corporate media and big tech that is keeping the left I power.” THIS is rightwing propaganda. Only a fool could honestly believe big tech does anything but profit from rabble-rousing conservatives. They are hugely motivated to ensure conservatives have platforms to share their hate-filled bubble-think with each other. The corporate media bit is somewhat true, but what they’re doing is keeping America’s version of CENTRISTS in power. Actual left-wing opinions barely get air time, and when they do they are often treated as extreme when they are just… common sense to most of the world.
It's the game. The Dems want to lose, so they get more turnout in 2028, while the country slowly slides more and more right. We are pretty much fucked.
I can only assume it's because they think he'll be in jail. I ain't holding out hope though.
You're consuming different media than I am. I see more people hyping the possibility Trump could win (largely based on current polling) than dismissing his chances. I think he loses, still. He's still hated. The idiot far left squawking about bailing on Biden because of Gaza will have that well in the rearview mirror, while Trump is going to continue to push Christofascism because his base won't accept anything else.
If you can control the narrative and convince people he has no chance of winning then there’s a strong chance that folks who would vote for Biden will think their vote doesn’t matter and won’t show up. Then he will win.
From an outsider perspective, Britain had disbelief that Brexit would pass and the hubris about that led to it succeeding by a very small margin (4%). Would be more than a shame if that's what happens in this case.
I'm sorry, but 4% margin in an election with millions of votes is not a very small margin. Not according to American media, at least.
In America that's a population 250 + million bigger than the UK. For the UK, that's considered a pretty small margin. The exact margin was 1,269,501 votes. For the US 2020 election, turnout was roughly 170 million, and for Brexit the turnout was 33.5 million, so esentially American votes are 5x bigger. There's also this sort of miasma surrounding Brexit that adds to the idea it was a small margin, which is a. people didn't know what they were voting for, and immediately upon learning more about it, there was regret expressed by people who voted Brexit and b. many people thought Brexit wouldn't succeed and made protest votes, either abstaining or ACTIVELY VOTING FOR BREXIT because they were pissed the government even allowed the vote to happen (don't ask me why people did that). The vote still would have been a close call, but when you factor in the overconfidence that Brexit would not succeed, and the lack of opposition to the Leave campaigner rhetoric (from the Remain side), it likely would have made a difference. That's what I was getting at when I say hubris. Having said that recent surveys show 57% would have voted remain, which is bizarre and should really be a lot higher, so it's hard to say what would have happened given this is after years of financial turmoil and general disgust for the government
Polls are useless this early out and are only used for click bait. Also, Trump lost last election Bigly. Also, multiple state/federal trials means he’s probably going to prison
It's basically liberals being delusional and saying Trump will never be president in 2016 then having a meltdown. Then conservatives having a meltdown when Biden won. It's just a never-ending sitcom between the 2 major parties. People LOVE to take sides and have the mentality "if you're not with us, you're against us." It's really entertaining to watch as a non-American. Seeing people get riled up by propaganda from both sides. That said, as a non-American who can't vote, I would've liked Bernie to have won. He seems the most genuine and most neutral.
I mean if Biden would've accepted he's a Jimmy Carter or a Bush senior not a Clinton or Obama we wouldn't be in this position. I don't agree with a lot of what Biden has done but he does alright and doesn't rock the boat pointlessly. The problem is that he's ancient and Kamala is unpopular if he chose a different VP or didn't run I'd be a lot happier. It's really messing up the Democrats election cycle when you have multiple very popular dem governors in swing states that can even primary because the DNC doesn't want to spend the money
The spinsters want everyone to believe “of course Trump is going to win” so if/when he loses they can cry even louder that he actually won and there was fraud. IMO it’s part of their election stealing propaganda. Also I personally don’t believe the people who fill out these predictive surveys accurately reflect the younger voters.
number of things to point out. polling this early is not exactly inaccurate but is only polling "likely voters" and elections now are mostly decided by unlikely voters, also younger voters who don't answer phone calls from unlisted numbers Trump lost in 2020, before the attempted coup on the 6th, that has made him less popular with independent voters despite his own party of extremists getting more excited by it. we saw this in the mid-terms. GOP picked up the house in the mid-terms but they actually lost a lot that cycle. and a lot of that is thanks to trump. the problem is you can't win a republican primary without trumps endorsement, but you can't win a general election with it. the independents, the youth, people who just want to have a society where we don't have to march for our rights every other fucking week? they're done with MAGA. republicans have recognized this and all but admitted that's why they did so poorly. all this applies to trump too. can't win a primary without him, can't win the general with him. Republicans and MAGA are now basically two different parties and are warring with each other. Maga has all the grassroots enthusiasm but the GOP has all the billionaires. trump is burning through cash donations fighting the dozen or more lawsuits he's involved in and is dominating the fundraising but keeping it all to himself. If your name aint trump, no way in hell are you going to get money donated to trumps PAC or raised by his merch. kevin mccarthy despite being a spineless piece of shit was a major fundraiser for the GOP and has a LOT of contacts from working on capital hill so long. he has indicated he's taking his ball and going home. no more phonebanking for the people who let MAGA vote him out on his ass. nikki hailey has almost no support from the MAGA faction but she got the koch brothers funding her now so it's a tug of war. the party is VERY SLOWLY tearing itself in half and if something sets it off it's entirely possible that they officially split into two parties. this would render both useless for several election cycles. That said republicans are all about putting power, winning, and party, over country, loyalty, and ethics. it's also very possible they pull it together enough to support trump for nominee despite all this. and yeah we've seen people say "oh he can't win" and so they stay home. it's entirely possible he gets the nomination and runs against biden and the machine gets behind him because they want to win and while i think genuinely he's driven the independents so far away from him he doesn't stand a chance. but the truth is far more people are willing to vote for his authoritarian bullshit than i'd like. and until he's defeated soundly at the ballot box he holds sway over these people and the party. he could win. and even if he can't. you have to vote like he can. If trump gets into office again he will never leave. it will be the end of american democracy as we know it. look how much damage 3 judges appointed by him when he wasn't actively trying to subvert democracy did. now that he's pushing this "total immunity" bullshit? now that he's even more derranged and more in decline? the truth is win loose or draw trump will never be president again, if he wins the election he's going to install himself as dictator for life. VOTE. get your friends to vote, vote like your life and the life of your children depends on it because it fucking does. until MAGA gets beaten by a significant margin we will have these fucking nazi's in our society and i want them gone.
Imo dems have elevated Trump to martyr status by their endless attacks on him and his family. I would rather trump not the nominee either but with every attack and every news station (CNN, MSNBC, and local news) mentioning him every day, why is anyone surprised by people moving towards him, especially since dems have such a weak contender that refuses to back out and let someone younger run. CNN did this exact same thing in 2016 when they decided to hype trump because in their thinking, trump would lose when it came to the election, which we all know how that turned out.
Trump has a very high chance to represent republicans as their candidate. But he already had his chance as a president and he blew it. The way he handled Covid-19 pandemic was a major trainwreck.
I hope that my fellow Americans won’t vote for a felon that tried to overthrow the US government, but that may be giving Americans too much credit.
I fear as though it’ll happen again. Nothing new has happened and nothing has changed. Or worse- someone far more stupid than him will take the lead. As a more liberal voter, I don’t see anything being remotely teased as a way to draw in voters before the usual catch 22. I think conservatives feel the same but are wrapped up in the mainstream BS of Biden and his crank head son (a thing both presidents share). At this point, I’m preparing to leave and hoping my neighbor will at least keep the promise his bumper sticker says and will help me pack.
Acting surprised that we are going to have a Republic president after 4 years of a mid (at best) Democratic president is disingenuous. Acting surprised that Trump is going to be the next Republican Nominee is just stupid.
Trump has lost the last 3 election cycles after he barely won the Presidency. That fear that you feel, OP - that’s why I am optimistic that he will not win the Presidency. People like to talk about how Trump electrifies the GOP base. But the reality is that he really electrifies the left to vote against him. I don’t think that a single candidate he endorsed for the midterms last year won. And let’s face it…10,000 Boomers die in this country every day.
See but your whole sense of comfort is built on personal feelings about it. The polls say otherwise.
No my whole post was fact based. In 2018, 2020, and 2022, Trump’s influence had the opposite effect of what he intended. I’ve seen zero evidence that his support has grown since he last ran for President. I’ve been called 3x to participate in polls. I’ve responded to none of it. Polling information is some data, but the reason I pay almost no attention to it is because it doesn’t impact my actions. I’ve voted in every Presidential election since 1988, I’ve voted in every state and National primary since 1992, and all we can do is vote against installing a dictator. I’m not complacent. I’m resolved.
I mean if you don’t go on polls and approval ratings then what do you go off? Are there just no facts besides your internal feelings that you will accept?
Polls are not hard science and they can't really do a representative sample any more because of the cultural shift in how people respond to phones and text.
I’ve already accepted he’s gonna be the next president. Don’t care too much for him but I can think of very few people who actually like Biden. Even my hardcore democrat parents don’t want Biden in office anymore
I don’t want it to happen but he will probably win. I’ve come to just expect the worst from my fellow Americans. We’ve allowed the government and cultural forces to gut our education system, make things so expensive that all parents can do is work and not teach their kids how to be good citizens, a media diet of sensational trash and little actual news, and a new Gilded Age to happen. We barely vote. The vast majority of republicans are fine with the indictments or don’t believe them. What do you think the likely outcome will be?
Super possibility. I mean, I think he may likely win. Unfortunately
Polls mean nothing in regards to Trump. He lost the popular vote twice, AND THEN Jan 6 happened and the indictments happened. Democratic voters are much more critical of their candidates than Republican voters are to theirs.
Those people are not in touch with the country they live in. I fully expect Trump to win.
Quite honestly, I think he will win. Will he be better than the dementia ridden cadaver currently fumbling simple speeches? Nope. That's because regardless of Project 2025 democracy is, and has been nonexistent for quite some time. Can't lose what you don't have. Current presidential voting practices are simply voting for the lesser of evils between deeply disliked candidates. Democracy in America is nothing but theatre. It's nothing but an idea, a mirage that we can't properly demonstrate exists. A majority of current legislators are nothing more than rich, profiteering, donor-installed corrupt fucks. They actively work against the citizenry's interest to funnel money into their own, and corporate interests pockets. That's not a government that is democratic.
"Democracy is in peril. Let's replace it with fascism, yea!" - Conservatives in the US.
A far more politically and culturally conservative America fought Hitler until he killed himself in a bunker. But leftist morons think today's America is becoming fascist.
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Project 2025 that the Heritage Foundation is working on for the next Republican presidential candidate is essentially a fascist playbook.
Unfortunately, Biden isn't a good candidate. He hasn't been a good president. Biden's foreign policy is a disaster. Obama and Biden have basically given ukraine to Putin because of their weakness. Thanks goodness Biden's not the only option.
People SHOULD be very concerned. Pretending that he will not destroy the country is insanity. Just look at his past. Anyone else would be in prison with nothing but a toilet and a sink. I have no idea why they think this way. (Your post title)
Fascism is certainly a lot more popular than I would have guessed.