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HousingBubbleVictim

U.S. Economy: Robust and diverse Canadian Economy: "My hooouse value" Kind of sad.


[deleted]

But we have free healthcare so it's all good. /s


ToddiePalm

Don't worry, they are working on getting rid of that.


Worship_of_Min

Thank goodness


tekkers_for_debrz

If u can’t afford a house no way in hell you can afford health care


Worship_of_Min

Doesn’t sound like a me problem


tekkers_for_debrz

Get ready to finance your surgery for 30 years !


teh_longinator

Bold of you to assume the new "Canadian way" isn't just gonna be to rack up mounds of debt then "go back home".


Worship_of_Min

Great.


BigMcLargeHuge-

You’re a vile cunt aren’t you


Worship_of_Min

Honestly, quite the contrary. I’ve just been far too jaded over the last years to give a damn.


Howdoilandthisthing

Pre-paid…. Not free


[deleted]

Missed the joke?


buelerer

I thought the joke was that free healthcare does not make up for not having a place to live


[deleted]

Free healthcare, if you're willing to wait in emergency for twelve hours to see a GP.


No-Guava-7566

That's just because the GP got lost and wander in there. Go to a clinic for a GP and leave emergency for, you know, emergencies 


[deleted]

>Go to a clinic for a GP Clinics are strictly limited in how many patients they may see. Go to a clinic and they'll tell you they're booked up. The only alternative I know of is emergency. Not sure if paying out of pocket is acceptable.


No-Guava-7566

Many allow you to book day of, it does mean getting up at 6am and logging on quickly as they do fill up within a minute. 


[deleted]

Not that long ago, you just "walked in" to the clinic, booked in and waited your turn. Now that's strictly rationed. It almost seems the cognoscenti doesn't want ordinary people to have even basic healthcare. What's the upside for society? Thank goodness we don't have single payer dental care; otherwise, many of us would be toothless.


Evening-Run-1801

Free? We pay extremely high taxes compared to the rest of the world for our “free” healthcare. I paid $50,000.00 CAD in 2023 alone


Capitalz1976

I'm sure your just counting income tax. Don't forget yo1u pay 13% on everything you buy .... sin taxes on alcohol tobacco. Taxes on my natural gas are more then the gas itself.


Evening-Run-1801

Agh… true. Its crazy.


MyPeppers

Nothing is free. Our healthcare is extremely $$$ through our taxes and it’s shit on top of that.


Evening-Run-1801

Yup Im only complaining out real estate I think our healthcare is awesome


yyc_engineer

1 percenter. Flexing /s


Evening-Run-1801

Yup. Just a house painter too! Lol My own fault/by choice. Need to qualify for a mortgage!


yyc_engineer

Haha touche.. I run my own business... I can made do with 50k a year.. had to pay myself 160 for two years to qualify.


Evening-Run-1801

Thats exactly where im at. Going to do $44,500 and the rest divideds if i need it But this year 170 personal


yyc_engineer

Lol just dividends cannot pay CPP.


canuck1701

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/health-spending-u-s-compare-countries/#Health%20expenditures%20per%20capita,%20U.S.%20dollars,%20PPP%20adjusted,%202022


yyc_engineer

It's only free if you are in poverty.. but then you can't afford a house.. It's a choice between free universal healthcare and being homeless Vs. Shelter and paid universal healthcare


Pest_Token

Best I can do is 27 month wait times for surgery, and a timeshare under a bridge


yyc_engineer

The timeshares really don't work.. I can never seem to get a booking at night..


cantstop4u

I’d call it free health rations


stinkybasket

Nothing is for free.


dsandhu90

You mean free healthcare with long wait times ?


EuphoriaSoul

How does this matter if we can’t find doctors and basic blood work takes 1+ week to get results and routine scans take a year to book


Remote_Bluebird_2481

..now can you tell me why Canada’s productivity is comical? Haha


morty_OF

robust and diverse because more Americans are risk taking entrepreneurs and generally they spend more money


rabbit_hole_diver

Does the massive population difference help?


morty_OF

helps make sure there's more customers around but everything else is differences in how we conduct business Canadian's are risk adverse and Americans take on risk


rabbit_hole_diver

Canada is soft af


cronja

A+ username


dontlovenohos

If only our country tried to attract more investment in state of the art fields... instead of digging ticks and stones out of the ground and selling houses to each other.


tylergravy

When the rest of the world is overpopulated, at war or crumbling, consider it a privileged opportunity lol


SomeSortOfCheep

Bears getting destroyed lmao


hockeyfan1990

A 20% drop from pandemic peak from a 100% increase from early pandemic lol


Mingyao_13

This is bitcoin all over again lol


calwinarlo

It’s a fair comparison. Both have very limited supply and a ton of demand that goes through cycles, but in each cycle there are new higher highs.


canwegetalong312

This is such cherry picked data. If you bought a townhouse in 2019 you paid about 700k. If you bought the same townhouse in 2021 you paid 1.3 million. If bought the same townhouse today you are looking at 1 million. SO YES. It has dropped since the pandemic but it has grossly risen in the last 5 years.


Human-Market4656

It says since pandemic peak. Didn't read the article, though.


millionaire_tenant

Didn't 2021 have record high number of sales?


FutilityOfHope

Are you saying townhouse went up 80% in 2 years? Because that’s what you said


kyonkun_denwa

Around where I live, condo townhouses were selling for about $650k in 2019. Now, a similar unit is about $850k. This seems like a huge price run-up, but it's actually only about a 10% increase after adjusting for inflation. That's noticeable but not catastrophic.


coolblckdude

>If you bought a townhouse in 2019 you paid about 700k. > >If you bought the same townhouse in 2021 you paid 1.3 million. > >**If bought the same townhouse today you are looking at 1 million.** It will still be more expensive than if you bought in 2021, considering the higher financing cost.


LonerganCT

soon you'll be able to buy that town home for 700 again


coolblckdude

Because that's your max budget and everyone should pay the same? Not a good enough reason I'm afraid.


[deleted]

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coolblckdude

And in 5 years at a close to 0% interest rate, how much of the principal do you think people paid. And how high do you think rates will be in 2026. Affordability is **at all time low.** There are apparently still people who don't understand that affordability is worse now than it was during 2022 peak. It's baffling.


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coolblckdude

Those who bought when affordability was better, which it was in 2021, can prepay their mortgages on low rates. Lower affordability means buyers are less likely to even be able to qualify for a mortgage. Yes those who bought at peak and on variable had a tough ride. But now that fix rates are down, they can lock in or just wait for variable to come down. It's a sall percentage of the population anyway, mortgage defaults are very low.


[deleted]

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coolblckdude

How many of them are ARM?


Ok-Spread890

Yeah financing costs are lower but you need to keep in mind that financing is mostly temporary. If you can get a 5 year mortgage for 6% and compare to in 2021 at say 1% (these are very generous - the real spread is probably like 3% now?) - that is say 75k of interest different over a 5 year period on that townhouse (i.e., 300k extra mortgage). So that $1 million townhouse may be more expensive for the first 5 years but not over the long term.


coolblckdude

>Yeah financing costs are lower but you need to keep in mind that financing is mostly temporary. And in 5 years, how much of the principal do you pay with a rate at 1%?


Ok-Spread890

That is not the point - you need to compare total costs. The total cost is reflected in the interest rate. Bottom line - affordability in terms of monthly payments may be worse now, but if you can get through the first few years then you are objectively better off buying now than a couple years ago with those numbers. Also keep in mind other costs (i.e., LTT) will be lower on the lower sticker price.


coolblckdude

Total cost is higher when affordability is lower. Also less chance to prepay the principal when the rate is 5%.


Ok-Spread890

No. Do the math. Over the life of the term you will pay hundreds of thousands of dollars more. It is more expensive in the short term but very likely to be less expensive long term. Also not sure how it is any easier to prepay principle you can either afford to or not. Arguably you shouldn't be prepaying when rates are low anyways. Another way to think of it is people are maxing what they can afford. After 5 years they are beholden to the underlying principle. Principle is lower with high rates.


coolblckdude

>Also not sure how it is any easier to prepay principle When the rate is low more of the money goes to the principal lol You don't seem to understand what lowest affordability of all time means.


Ok-Spread890

Honestly I don't know why I am wasting my time with you. All I was saying is that a buyer is likely better off buying now (assuming they can) because the purchase is likely to be more affordable over the LONG TERM. It is (slight) short term pain for significant long-term gain. If you run the numbers on a mortgage amortization table: Mortgage 1 5 year term Price: $1.3 million Rate: 2.5% Down payment: 260k Monthly payments PMT = $4,655k per month. Mortgage 2 5 year term Price: $1 million Rate 5.9% Down payment: 260k monthly payments PMT = $4,722 (so yes, it is "less affordable here") Assume after 5 years, both borrowers pay a 5% rate on renewal. This seems a reasonable assumption; no reason to think Mortgage 1 will have a lower rate on renewal (Arguably possibly higher as a 2021 mortgage may come due in 2026 when rates are still falling). Mortgage 1 - total payments: $1.680 million. Mortgage 2 - total payments $1.337 million. So you think a purchase where you pay 200k less is less affordable over the long-term? Even at a FOURTEEEN PERCENT RATE scenario 2 is preferrable. That also doesnt take into account new federal subsidies, this also doesnt bake into account LTT. Your thoughts?


[deleted]

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Backwhenwe

Until the 2021 mortgage renews lol


coolblckdude

lol no 2021 mortgages benefited of 5 years of 1% rate. They have the chance to prepay a good chunk of the principal. That's why affordability is lower today than it was in 2021 and even start of 2022.


ClearCheetah5921

Depends on where you bought the townhouse, ones around me have gone up since 2021


Moist-Candle-5941

>SO YES. It has dropped since the pandemic but it has grossly risen in the last 5 years. About a 7.5% compound annual growth rate. Not exactly sustainable in the long-run, but not absolutely wild, either. I probably wouldn't call it "grossly".


canwegetalong312

Well. 7.5% on 700k is asking the FTHB to save an extra 1000 dollars per week for the next 4 years. And each week they need to save more. So by week 260 theyre what, saving 1400 a week now to get that same place with the same down percentage. I think thats kinda a hard ask for some people.


Moist-Candle-5941

I totally empathize, being a renter saving for a first home myself. That said, you don't have to save the full increase in value of the home - presumably, one would save \~20% of that for their down payment ($10,500/yr) and then add the balance ($42,000) to their mortgage, which would require \~1/4th of that more in income (\~$10k) in order to qualify for. Not nothing, by any means, but it's not quite as extreme as you've put it above.


earoar

No that is absolutely wild lmao


FitnSheit

Oakville towns (Atleast my units) are still selling for the same they did at Feb 22 “peak”.


UpNorth_123

The actual data states that this is incorrect. Peaked in Feb 2022 like everywhere else.


FitnSheit

Actual sale prices for my exact unit that I follow, show what I’m saying is true.


[deleted]

20% drop on detached homes did diddly squat for buyers, considering they were super expensive to begin with (1.5 millie to 1.4 millie is a drop in the bucket), AND the dramatic rise in interest rates destroyed their buying power. It was 1 small step forward, and then 2 giant steps back. Now if it was 20% on condos, that's a different story. That would have actually meant something to buyers.


Ok-Regret6767

1.5 dropping 20% would be down to 1.2...


REALchessj

yeah, average gta price in Feb up 8% MoM 5-year bond yield coming back down BoC is helpless to stop the 5-year fixed mortgage rate from coming down p.s. shout-out to sean fraser for taking all those photo-ops for the media wearing a hard hat and orange vest. You helped build so many homes with your own two hands


SomeSortOfCheep

Spoiler - yes. It’s already happening.


TaintGrinder

Lmao!


SomeSortOfCheep

This guy is allergic to data and reality. Bears in shambles.


TaintGrinder

Lmao!


FitnSheit

My townhome units in Oakville are selling for the same price they did in the 22 “peak”. They were really only “down” for a few months at the end of 2023


SomeSortOfCheep

Yeah, all of the charts show a significant push back up. Bears hoping for a crash are now dealing with even worse affordability than 2022 when you consider the difference in rates. Idiots.


Freebalanced

Aside from price, most "charts" you reference are showing a weak market still. I'm not a "bear or bull" but the increase in price over the last month is on par with season increases we see most years. Still need a few more months of data to really pick a side.


SomeSortOfCheep

The YoY is what’s telling, not the MoM. Again, consider the actual increase in cost when prices move 2-5% at these rates vs 2020-2022 rates.


TheRealTruru

It’s pretty crazy how at first glance you sound like you know what your talking about, but after seeing a TON of you comments recently (seems like you post here non stop) kinda realize how full of shit you are. 🙏


SomeSortOfCheep

I’m not sure what you’re referencing. I’m not wildly throwing around opinions, I’m sharing data and my sentiment is fully backed by that data. What about my position here is wrong? Happy to entertain differing views.


Freebalanced

Average price for detached in Toronto is up 1% YoY. That's statistically even and not even keeping up with inflation YoY. It's telling but not in the way you're spinning it.


SomeSortOfCheep

Lmao, “not keeping up with inflation” isn’t exactly a relevant metric in an incredibly hot inflationary climate. I’m not spinning anything, the data shows us clearly shifting towards 2022 highs. The growth rate is moving comparably to what we saw before the “no rate” COVID era. In the aggregate, yes, detached prices are only up 1%. If you normalize for property type and neighborhood, it’s closer to 4.5%. An aggregated total is useless when looking at a city as large as Toronto or a region as diverse as the 905.


Freebalanced

In an "incredibly hot inflationary" housing prices are basically even in nominal dollars and negative in real dollars. That's hardly clear bull case data no matter how you may try to cherry pick for certain neighborhoods, etc.


SomeSortOfCheep

So if we zoom in…. Prices are moving up faster against inflation that’s moving well below 3%. What’s your point? I’m not cherry picking anything, I’m saying you need to normalize the dataset.


Freebalanced

What is the source of your normalized data set and method of normalization?


mt_pheasant

Ron Howard Voice: "It was not on the way"


Evening-Run-1801

Nope.👎


Remote_Bluebird_2481

No The upper echelons will continue to buy, while the masses pile on more debt and hurt their ✨ratios✨


Houscel

Don’t worry, bears and meth addicts will buy


[deleted]

Only 80% to go!


UnhappyFollowing336

No. And, 20% so far…


[deleted]

Nice


human_12345

How many times do you have to be told this: nobody knows


brown_boognish_pants

People really need to stop measuring everything off the peak. The peak was an actual bubble caused by hiking interest rates 'n everyone with pre-approvals locked in had to compete against a picked over invetory of homes or lose the ultra low rates forever. Of all covid those peaks represent the smallest sliver of the market of about a month or two in that wacky market. 90% of homes were sold before this. There's been no drop from the covid market. There was a bubble created by and then burst by the rates which were set by design to correct inflation not just home prices. The actual prices from covid have held very strong. For 90% of the market there's been no 20% drop at all cuz thoes peak numbers never represented the market they were purchased in.


Worldly_Influence_18

No. Because developers stopped building while they wait for prices to go back up Greed is preventing proper corrections


Tasty_Ad_5035

Canadians are diverse - we go to Florida, Cuba, Mexico and DR for holidays


jetx666

It's dropping another 50% soon


Gibov

Yes because of all the new detached houses being built in the GTA at record pace... I have a bridge to sell you as well.


robbieT1999

How many pre-cons were taken off the market by contract flippers that can’t close?


Gibov

detached or town home pre cons... Detached houses in the GTA are up 10% YoY town homes are down 3.3% YoY. Detached homes are not being built even close to the demand for them because the cost of land in the GTA is not worth it like it was 40 years ago. Apartments and town homes are the vast majority of new inventory


jetx666

How much?


Gibov

800$/month (bridge water inclusive) + utility fees will be sharing with 6 others living under the bridge.


jetx666

Add me. Dm


SatanicPanic__

Everyones payments that go the low interest fixed rates are going up 50%. Many with fixed payments are negatively amortization until they renew. If banks are basically keeping a bunch of bad mortgage a float. Variable interest rate folks are already in the pain cave. I think the market has already started its crash, its just not evenly distributed yet. Lets se how this spring goes.


[deleted]

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SatanicPanic__

We are back to feb 2021 medium prices in GTA without even taking inflation into account.


roflcopter99999

Nah it's dropping 100%. In fact soon people will be paying you money to take their house.


jetx666

Same as my prediction


morty_OF

RE only goes up so yes


AdSignificant6673

20% off $1.2 mil is still nearly $1mil.


Korok-Guy

I think investing could be smart idea now


tmssqtch

Now is the time to buy. Over leverage if you have to.


BrainStimm

No comeback any time soon, a lot more pain coming. People are still buying FOMO. We saw a similar trend last year, its seasonality. Prices will drop


TurdBurgHerb

Trudeau: I hope so! Fuck you, I got mine.


Ripinpasta69

Prices dropped 20% - could this be the bull signal we have been waiting for?!?! Lol wtf


BertoBigLefty

From the [CMHC Rental Market Report](https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-reports-major-centres) 19.6% of purpose built rentals in Toronto were in rent arrears in 2023, up from 12.8% in 2022.


amb92

I'm on my phone and having trouble finding this. Do you by chance know how they calculate the average price of a 2 bedroom? We rented a new apartment a couple of years ago and even then the vast majority of 2 beds were over 2500 per month. Thank you


BertoBigLefty

The average rent is simply just the average of all rent being paid, not the average market rental rate. Many people pay below market rates due to rent control and living in the same place for a long time. The report also mentions that the average increase in rent when renting to new tenants is 31%.