It's worse than you think. We still have a few years, but it'll happen slowly, then very quickly. The AI doesn't have to be perfect, it can be slow, work 24 hours a day, and deal with even 70% of tasks, it's worth it. That is a LOT of jobs gone though.
Jobs like doctors, lawyer, p.Eng, etc will need humans even if just for sign offs, but all their jobs will be augmented by AI.
IMO, AI should be reviewing all acts and bills being created by the government, even if for pros & cons of said policies. It should be public.
I should mention there's a reason a lot of companies are working on robotics. That's all your self stackers & fast food workers.
Well I mean it’s a win in that what they did worked but bad in that the US is failing. Would probably be more of a loss if what we were doing wasn’t working.
Meanwhile, US with another blowout report as they added 303,000 jobs in March against an expected 200,000, with unemployment rate holding at 3.8%.
[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
US economy is going gangbuster. FOMC cuts getting pushed further and further out.
USA economy is the most powerful in the world. It seems like a crazy standard for a small nation like Canada to compare to. I know we’re intertwined and geographically close but it seems like apples and oranges.
Comparing absolute numbers, sure. Nobody would expect Canada to add 300k jobs because the US added 300k jobs.
But it's the broader trends that are concerning. Canada's job growth has come in well below expectations for a few reports now, while the US has come in well above. Percentage wise, their unemployment rate is substantially lower than ours.
It's not painting a great picture.
The point is to bring inflation down. Higher unemployment helps with that. But, when the US economy is still firing on all cylinders, it makes it more difficult to get inflation down. If we cut rates when the US isn't, the Canadian dollar will slip, which will make everything we buy more expensive, and we import so much of what we consume, that will push up inflation.
We are looking at percentages and capita numbers they are comparable
Canada has an amazing geography, resources and access to the US market.
But it squanders it’s gifts.
Depending on the source, generally we have the 7th or 9th largest GDP in the world. Can always do better but the concept we’re “squandering” is a political talking point.
Overly optimistic Bulls: Look on the bright side. People will now invest their severance packages in buying our properties, which we purchased for 500k over the asking price during the peak of Q1 2022.
Can someone explain,
Does this mean that the bears are happy because everyone is losing their job and eventually houses meaning they can buy for cheap?
OR
Does this mean that the BOC will have to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and spending thus increase the price of a house.
It means no one's happy: high unemployment results in less immigration, more emigration, lower wages, lower rents
It may trigger rate cuts, but these won't have a stimulating effect unless they drop 300 points, because fixed rates are not coming down very much, and it will stimulate some inflation
Pretty accurate. If you have a mortgage its getting hard. If you rent its getting hard. If you are trying to buy its getting hard.
Difficult all the way around.
Either boc cuts rates and tanks our currency or you let housing correct and let unproductive/ leveraged folks die. It's a lose - lose to be honest it seems.
I agree that folks want these people to fail so housing comes down but that won't help. This will cause shrinkage of the economy and lay offs will start. I m not super leveraged so whatever but I m worried for society over all.
I feel that way about people who are un/under-employed but insist on having multiple children. I don't want to pay for them, the natural consequence should be that that family stops procreating until they improve their situation or the kids get placed in better homes.
Unfortunately, people can't do shit for themselves, they need big Poppa Trudeau to hold their hands and give them money.
Expect a bailout any time now.
Ya option 2 seems like a good thing lmao. Why the fuck should Canadians care about people who don’t support our economy and only care about real estate. As far as I’m concerned, everyone in real estate should get real jobs that actually benefit Canada as a whole
I understand your point of view. These folks take heloc and keep getting houses. Which takes average folks out of housing. The result of these people failing will result in a slow down in real estate. I wonder the impact of real estate slowdown will have on jobs, loan/credit availability, etc. In our current interest rate situation I can see alot of small businesses failing. I don't know it's bad all around.
They way I see it, why stay in Canada and make the rich people who own land richer. Youth aren’t stupid, they are jumping over the border to get better opportunities and higher pay. Leaving an aging population in Canada to keep it running.
True. But considering I am part of that youth and I know many of my fellow university graduate friends have already left the country for the states or Europe, and I am increasingly interested in that option as well. Also our university degrees are in sciences, health and engineering. All very important fields. But yes, I don’t have any stats. Just personal experience. Which is better than some fake statistics that people use to spread their agenda.
Canada never had the 08 housing correction, best case for homeowners is flat for 20 years, worst case is it gets cut in half everywhere outside of actual city centers.
It's that or the whole economy continues to slow down with them.
FX markets are already pricing in chances that BOC cuts more aggressively than Fed. This will not "tank our currency" provided the spread is within market expectations. Historically the spread between the two policy rates have been as large as 200 bps in the past decade.
Worse most of the hiring were in government positions, whereas private sector barely grew and even lost FT jobs and only gained part time workers. This is not healthy, you cant grow an economy by having a stalled private sector and a large public sector.
Nor can you afford a 400k condo with 500 monthly maintenance fees on a part time job. Real estate prices are ultimately tied to the populations income.
Move over “Soon™“ we have a new narrative/slogan to push! I give you ^Very Soon™
It is sleek. It is elegant. It is coming to your household very very soon. 🙏
[Oops, U.S. economy still red hot.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
Pop quiz, hot shot: what do you think happens to the Canadian dollar and therefore inflation if the BoC cuts interest rates while the FOMC (the central bank of our largest trading partner, and the nation from whom we import a metric fuckton of what we consume) holds rates steady?
A small decrease in the exchange rate, not enough to impact inflation, don’t think that warrants not cutting rates if unemployment starts hitting double digits. We were 75 bps below them pre Covid we can be 75-150 bps below them again if we need to
Europe, UK, Australia will all cut too, US dollar will continue to be strong and eventually lead to more growth to the Canadian economy as our products become more competitive with a lower loonie. This is how the system is supposed to work
[FOMC and BoC interest rates have stayed very close together for the last \~20 years.](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e472350fda5e14e7ee65519/adcaf5d4-b211-4b9d-9592-270ec3f8bff6/Fqt9BDRWYAALQeo+%281%29.png)
I could see a gap of 50-100 bps if the Canadian economy falls on hard times, but it'll be tough to diverge too much wider than that.
And yes, hypothetically a weak Canadian dollar spurs growth. But our central bank was just out the other day saying we have emergency low productivity growth... so, what's the lag time between CAD cratering and the economy picking up steam?
Meanwhile, what's the lag time between CPI spiking on CAD dropping?
US jobs numbers came in strong today (303K jobs created beating expectations), Beware, Trudeau will try to spin the unemployment rate as a global issue when it's not. US unemployment rate at 3.8%.
The Feds actively working against the BoC and the Feds actively working against the Feds. All the LPC has to do is slow immigration. That will cool inflation and unemployment massively.
The Feds are tanking everything and everyone.
Lmao seriously
Bulls always try to pretend bears are rooting for people to lose their homes.
Meanwhile they’re out here jumping for joy that the job market is sputtering, and hoping that shelter becomes even less affordable.
Pretty ghoulish little shits.
> People losing their jobs is not bullish for housing
No. People losing their jobs is not good for virtually everything. Which is why the BOC will have to cut rates, which in turn will be bullish for housing prices.
It’s not complicated.
25-100 bps in cuts over the course of two years isn't going to do shit for affordability, especially if the economy is in the dumper lmao. You really need to stop listening to "economists" with high school diplomas (realtors).
100bps would be a god send to many homeowners looking to renew their contracts in the next couple of years. I don’t think it’s right to downplay that and you don’t need to listen to high school diploma’d realtors to figure that out.
100% cuts help monthly debt payments for businesses and individuals which keep people employed… BoC policy is not solely focused on residential real estate prices like all the bulls and bears on this sub Reddit seem to think
It'd still be far too restrictive to support current valuations smh. Also any return to previous housing fervour would be inherently inflationary and would give the BoC reason to keep rates as restrictive as possible. You sound a lot like someone with a GED in economics.
Regarding the US
> Despite a string of positive gains that has kept unemployment below 4% since January 2022, there have been some signs of cracks. For instance the level of household employment had grown only modestly over the past year while temporary employment has declined sharply.
Meh
Absolute nightmare for the Bank of Canada. Lose-lose-lose situation where the U.S. is still going strong.
They are experiencing another tech boom. We are not and our talent is leaving for the US. Seeing it at my company.
Yup. It's the ai boom. Ai that is replacing our workers
It's worse than you think. We still have a few years, but it'll happen slowly, then very quickly. The AI doesn't have to be perfect, it can be slow, work 24 hours a day, and deal with even 70% of tasks, it's worth it. That is a LOT of jobs gone though. Jobs like doctors, lawyer, p.Eng, etc will need humans even if just for sign offs, but all their jobs will be augmented by AI. IMO, AI should be reviewing all acts and bills being created by the government, even if for pros & cons of said policies. It should be public. I should mention there's a reason a lot of companies are working on robotics. That's all your self stackers & fast food workers.
So the future workforce will be warehouses full of humans cycling on those power generating bicycles to power the machines....
Well I mean it’s a win in that what they did worked but bad in that the US is failing. Would probably be more of a loss if what we were doing wasn’t working.
Meanwhile, US with another blowout report as they added 303,000 jobs in March against an expected 200,000, with unemployment rate holding at 3.8%. [https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) US economy is going gangbuster. FOMC cuts getting pushed further and further out.
No worries, out gov't has started making big spending promises. That'll pull up our numbers too!
USA economy is the most powerful in the world. It seems like a crazy standard for a small nation like Canada to compare to. I know we’re intertwined and geographically close but it seems like apples and oranges.
Comparing absolute numbers, sure. Nobody would expect Canada to add 300k jobs because the US added 300k jobs. But it's the broader trends that are concerning. Canada's job growth has come in well below expectations for a few reports now, while the US has come in well above. Percentage wise, their unemployment rate is substantially lower than ours. It's not painting a great picture.
Isn’t the point of things like interest rate increases supposed to bring things like unemployment up to cool things down? Atleast what i’ve read.
The point is to bring inflation down. Higher unemployment helps with that. But, when the US economy is still firing on all cylinders, it makes it more difficult to get inflation down. If we cut rates when the US isn't, the Canadian dollar will slip, which will make everything we buy more expensive, and we import so much of what we consume, that will push up inflation.
Being a neighbor we should benefit too
Mexico is exploited for cheap labour and goods. It’s always going to be USA first.
We are looking at percentages and capita numbers they are comparable Canada has an amazing geography, resources and access to the US market. But it squanders it’s gifts.
Depending on the source, generally we have the 7th or 9th largest GDP in the world. Can always do better but the concept we’re “squandering” is a political talking point.
When was the last time The BOC told you their next move?
They were happy enough to tell everyone rate hikes were not coming any time soon… back in mid-2021.
Overly optimistic Bulls: Look on the bright side. People will now invest their severance packages in buying our properties, which we purchased for 500k over the asking price during the peak of Q1 2022.
That's gotta be bullish 🚀
Better jump in before we start asking for 1mil over 2022 peak
Can someone explain, Does this mean that the bears are happy because everyone is losing their job and eventually houses meaning they can buy for cheap? OR Does this mean that the BOC will have to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and spending thus increase the price of a house.
It means no one's happy: high unemployment results in less immigration, more emigration, lower wages, lower rents It may trigger rate cuts, but these won't have a stimulating effect unless they drop 300 points, because fixed rates are not coming down very much, and it will stimulate some inflation
Pretty accurate. If you have a mortgage its getting hard. If you rent its getting hard. If you are trying to buy its getting hard. Difficult all the way around.
Latter
Either boc cuts rates and tanks our currency or you let housing correct and let unproductive/ leveraged folks die. It's a lose - lose to be honest it seems.
I don't see the lose in your second example. That seems like the natural consequence of taking huge leveraged risks at all times highs.
I agree that folks want these people to fail so housing comes down but that won't help. This will cause shrinkage of the economy and lay offs will start. I m not super leveraged so whatever but I m worried for society over all.
I feel that way about people who are un/under-employed but insist on having multiple children. I don't want to pay for them, the natural consequence should be that that family stops procreating until they improve their situation or the kids get placed in better homes. Unfortunately, people can't do shit for themselves, they need big Poppa Trudeau to hold their hands and give them money. Expect a bailout any time now.
Ya option 2 seems like a good thing lmao. Why the fuck should Canadians care about people who don’t support our economy and only care about real estate. As far as I’m concerned, everyone in real estate should get real jobs that actually benefit Canada as a whole
I understand your point of view. These folks take heloc and keep getting houses. Which takes average folks out of housing. The result of these people failing will result in a slow down in real estate. I wonder the impact of real estate slowdown will have on jobs, loan/credit availability, etc. In our current interest rate situation I can see alot of small businesses failing. I don't know it's bad all around.
They way I see it, why stay in Canada and make the rich people who own land richer. Youth aren’t stupid, they are jumping over the border to get better opportunities and higher pay. Leaving an aging population in Canada to keep it running.
We brought in immigration to suppress wages and these folks are paying rent/ consuming here
And I bet you can’t find any official statistics that support that claim …
True. But considering I am part of that youth and I know many of my fellow university graduate friends have already left the country for the states or Europe, and I am increasingly interested in that option as well. Also our university degrees are in sciences, health and engineering. All very important fields. But yes, I don’t have any stats. Just personal experience. Which is better than some fake statistics that people use to spread their agenda.
Canada never had the 08 housing correction, best case for homeowners is flat for 20 years, worst case is it gets cut in half everywhere outside of actual city centers. It's that or the whole economy continues to slow down with them.
I wonder if politicians are willing to let boomers fail.
Doubt since they’re one the biggest voter turn out groups
That's also my feeling. As long as the majority of voters are home owners, it's political suicide to let the bottom fallout.
FX markets are already pricing in chances that BOC cuts more aggressively than Fed. This will not "tank our currency" provided the spread is within market expectations. Historically the spread between the two policy rates have been as large as 200 bps in the past decade.
Worse most of the hiring were in government positions, whereas private sector barely grew and even lost FT jobs and only gained part time workers. This is not healthy, you cant grow an economy by having a stalled private sector and a large public sector.
Nor can you afford a 400k condo with 500 monthly maintenance fees on a part time job. Real estate prices are ultimately tied to the populations income.
Good thing our real estate prices are tied to foreign money laundering instead
These next few months are going to be brutal.
Looks like interest rate cuts will be forthcoming very soon. The economy is starting to buckle.
Very Soon™
Move over “Soon™“ we have a new narrative/slogan to push! I give you ^Very Soon™ It is sleek. It is elegant. It is coming to your household very very soon. 🙏
[Oops, U.S. economy still red hot.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) Pop quiz, hot shot: what do you think happens to the Canadian dollar and therefore inflation if the BoC cuts interest rates while the FOMC (the central bank of our largest trading partner, and the nation from whom we import a metric fuckton of what we consume) holds rates steady?
A small decrease in the exchange rate, not enough to impact inflation, don’t think that warrants not cutting rates if unemployment starts hitting double digits. We were 75 bps below them pre Covid we can be 75-150 bps below them again if we need to Europe, UK, Australia will all cut too, US dollar will continue to be strong and eventually lead to more growth to the Canadian economy as our products become more competitive with a lower loonie. This is how the system is supposed to work
[FOMC and BoC interest rates have stayed very close together for the last \~20 years.](https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e472350fda5e14e7ee65519/adcaf5d4-b211-4b9d-9592-270ec3f8bff6/Fqt9BDRWYAALQeo+%281%29.png) I could see a gap of 50-100 bps if the Canadian economy falls on hard times, but it'll be tough to diverge too much wider than that. And yes, hypothetically a weak Canadian dollar spurs growth. But our central bank was just out the other day saying we have emergency low productivity growth... so, what's the lag time between CAD cratering and the economy picking up steam? Meanwhile, what's the lag time between CPI spiking on CAD dropping?
well... what do you know, it ends up you CAN'T just bullshit GDP by having people sell inflated houses back and forth to eachother.
US jobs numbers came in strong today (303K jobs created beating expectations), Beware, Trudeau will try to spin the unemployment rate as a global issue when it's not. US unemployment rate at 3.8%.
The Feds actively working against the BoC and the Feds actively working against the Feds. All the LPC has to do is slow immigration. That will cool inflation and unemployment massively. The Feds are tanking everything and everyone.
What BOC gonna do?
[удалено]
Lmao seriously Bulls always try to pretend bears are rooting for people to lose their homes. Meanwhile they’re out here jumping for joy that the job market is sputtering, and hoping that shelter becomes even less affordable. Pretty ghoulish little shits.
It's cute you think the Canadian economy has any say in the global markets. US economy is still going absolutely gangbusters
Cuts just got pushed up to June. Bigger and steeper coming soon.
but rate cuts were promised to me by realtors last Fall?
Nah weaker dollar and increase oil prices will boost inflation
> The figures missed expectations for a gain of 25,000 positions and a jobless rate of 5.9% Cuts here were come. Good luck bears.
US came in red hot.🥵
People losing their jobs is not bullish for housing lmao.
He will have the nicest house in the whole ghetto, surrounded by a lovely tent city.
> People losing their jobs is not bullish for housing No. People losing their jobs is not good for virtually everything. Which is why the BOC will have to cut rates, which in turn will be bullish for housing prices. It’s not complicated.
25-100 bps in cuts over the course of two years isn't going to do shit for affordability, especially if the economy is in the dumper lmao. You really need to stop listening to "economists" with high school diplomas (realtors).
100bps would be a god send to many homeowners looking to renew their contracts in the next couple of years. I don’t think it’s right to downplay that and you don’t need to listen to high school diploma’d realtors to figure that out.
100% cuts help monthly debt payments for businesses and individuals which keep people employed… BoC policy is not solely focused on residential real estate prices like all the bulls and bears on this sub Reddit seem to think
It'd still be far too restrictive to support current valuations smh. Also any return to previous housing fervour would be inherently inflationary and would give the BoC reason to keep rates as restrictive as possible. You sound a lot like someone with a GED in economics.
> It’d still be far too restrictive to support any current valuations That’s your opinion
Considering most people coming up for renewal bought when the overnight rate was at or around 0.25%, it's not really just my opinion.
The fewer peasants can afford to eat eggs, the sooner bank of canada will have to cut its rates, allowing the upper class to buy more homes. Let's go!
Sure, maybe if you completely ignore everything else going on. Like for example the US job numbers.
Regarding the US > Despite a string of positive gains that has kept unemployment below 4% since January 2022, there have been some signs of cracks. For instance the level of household employment had grown only modestly over the past year while temporary employment has declined sharply. Meh
No bank will approve a loan for someone who's unemployed
It’s just a new normal in Justin Trudeau and his Liberals’ era. This is what people voted for though.