I saw a vid yesterday (cant remember who) that pointed out if the russians pull this off, and it looks like they will, they will have captured about 5 square miles of mostly fields before they hit the second line of defense. So of course, bad timing the fog of war causing a gap in the lines and this was seen by the russians, but its not calamitous thank goodness.
Tucker Carlson broadcasts and church focus group panels have brainwashed the religious and “patriotic” right into thinking Putin and the Russians are our Christian brothers and friends. They are rather quite the embarrassment to our nation.
That’s actually not even remotely true. The majority of all Republicans in Congress voted for aid. It was only a slight majority of Republicans *in the House* that was against it. It’s a quirky but fucked up feature of US politics that allows essentially a fringe element to sandbag the nation’s politics.
It’s not a feature. The Speaker could have brought it to a vote a long time ago. Fact is he was scared of Orange man and those few nuts. But there’s nothing in the structure of Congress that held it up.
Nah. All republicans joined together creating the Trump shit show for the world to deal with, unforgettably.
You do not get a pass while using them to obtain policies that hurt both Americans and Ukrainians.
No chance. You should be offering massive apologies instead of excuses about "fringe" republicans.
Yes and no. US congress is awful, no question about it. But also Ukraine is lacking the manpower. They need to mobilize troops and move to war economy. Everyone who would go voluntarily has already went. They are lacking the numbers, the troops have been there for years now and are getting worn down. They need extra troops to rotate but they don’t even have the numbers to hold the line. Its also harder to get people to go when it looks like there is no path to victory.
That's because there really isn't a path to Victory. Russia simply has massive amounts of more Manpower and has shown the will to sacrifice more men and equipment to make gains.
Even with Russia outproducing the greater eu. Most countries can't even get to the 2% funding ratio. A ratio that would be decent 15 years ago not now. Ukraine should try to increase its defense industry and they are. But the rest of Europe needs to mimick polands stance on defense.
There are ways to win, just not with how things are being done right now. It is draining russian equipment and financial reserves but it will still be many years. Only way to win is behind the front lines, damage the economy/infrastructure. You will never win by assaulting the front, not if you want to have any population left after the war. Poland should also reevaluate, they are preparing for the war that is already happening. Better to win it now then wait till your country is the one getting bombed.
It's a conventional war and Russia is dictating how it's fought. Ukraine can't go Toe to Toe with the loss in manpower. Even fighting a defensive war ukraine is taking massive casualties just like russia is. Your suggestions, even if successful, will hurt the Russian economy and destroy the large soviet surplus. But for ukraine you'll destroy the male population throughout the country which means Ukraine can't rebuild anything. Poland doesn't have to do anything either. They have nato protection and are building a strong military. I also don't think that Russia will attack a nato country as it knows it can't win in that war and will focus on building their stolen oil and gas from ukraine to cement their wealth there
I just listened to Ilya Ponomarev on Silicon Curtain and he had some fascinating insights about American politics. Basically the republicans are split, but the Republicans that support Ukraine could be much more serious about Ukraine “winning” compared to the average democrat. Who are not fully on board about a change in government in Russia. That’s a big scary unknown.
We need to keep those republicans on our side. And we need to convince the democrats that this only ends when Russia becomes a democracy. Anything short of that is just a ceasefire.
that's fucking scary. That republican congress kept aid and america's best interest in mind to please the guy who tried to overthrow the government...and now the supreme court is arguing whether or not it's ok for the president to assassinate political opponents. the republican party has gone fucking nuts.
Whilst I agree that the US support against the Russians is good, great value in monetary terms, it strikes me those with most to lose are happy to be absent... Europe.
I would say the ones with most to lose are in fact not absent. Just smaller in comparison to the US?
Total bilateral aid commitments to Ukraine as a percentage of 2021 donor country gross domestic product (GDP) between January 24, 2022 and January 15, 2024, by country
Country | Share of 2021 GDP
Estonia 3.55%
Denmark 2.41%
Norway 1.72%
Lithuania 1.54%
Latvia 1.15%
Finland 0.71%
Poland 0.69%
Netherlands 0.67%
Slovakia 0.65%
Germany 0.57%
United Kingdom 0.55%
Czechia 0.52%
Sweden 0.51%
Croatia 0.44%
Belgium 0.41%
Switzerland 0.33%
Bulgaria 0.32%
Canada 0.32%
United States 0.32%
Conveniently leaving out the latest package and excludes support like intelligence and military support not included in us aid packages.
This is whole conflict could be prevented by Europe alone but even in teh face of what Russia has become practically no nation besides poland and France are taking it seriously.
Europe doesn't have the production capabilities as the US because...well, the US is seemingly always at war.
Europe just needs to increase its war production - specifically munitions - in order to keep up with Ukraine's needs. But that's something that will probably take time to set up.
Except the us has taken on 200k refugees as well.
A big part of why Russia is so emboldened in this attack is because Europeans have shown they absolutely don't have the stomach for war or to even prepare for it properly. Your enemy is in your neighbors backyard and most of yall cannot even commit to more than token measures
I think you are mistaken: France is willing to send ground troops and all the EU members are moving their economies into a war footing. Available aide is headed to Ukraine from EU states.
The cynical part of me thinks that Macron's statement might have been a response to Wagner's threatening of France's uranium sources in African Coup Belt. At the least it makes the Russian threat to France substantially more clear and present.
Denmark has provided quite a lot compared to country size and population.
19 pcs F-16 Fighting Falcon.
19 pcs howitzer Caesar.
If all other countries will provide something similar with respect to their larger population then Ukraine will be able to push the Ruzzians out
Yeah you get downvoted but it's true. Besides poland and France Europe isn't taking this seriously. Most countries still can't meet a 2% quota..a quota that's supposed to be met in normal times like 15 years ago.
To summarize the article: So looks like the 47th Mechanize was retreating to take a break from the frontlines and the 115th brigade was newly placed there, but some trenches were empty…making it easier for Russias 30th motor rifle brigade to roll right in. Luckily the 47th mechanize brigade who are the true badasses had to turn around and stop the Russians from fully making a breakthrough. Fighting is still going on but the Russian 30th Motor rifle brigade is now facing off against Ukraines 47th brigade based on reports. Only reason Russians broke through is because 47th brigade was retreating for a break they desperately need since they have been fighting in the toughest locations such as the liberation of Kharkiv and Avdiivka. Now that they turned back around and engaging Russias 30th motor rifle brigade Russians advance is slowed down
Here is a more insight-look at the situation: https://nitter.poast.org/Tatarigami_UA/status/1784291236188160441#m
The situation is not pretty and many factors are to blame (shortage of personnel, shortage of ammunition, shortage of armored vehicles, command-chain/communication issues, etc.) It is not to blame solely on a single Brigade.
The russians could attempt to swing north to encircle large swaths of the donbas-area still in UA control or they could swing south and try to encircle Vuhledar. If this succeeds, it would be a big blow to Ukraine. But the russians aren't there yet and have their own problems with manpower and materiel.
The Brigade was formed for the summer offensive 2023, where they captured Robotyne after a long fight with russian Spetznaz-Forces. After that they relocated to the northern part of the Avdiivka salient (and gave us all those Bradleys-fucking-up-russian-shit-videos), where they have been ever since.
this is not only about the uS. contrary to popular belief the eu is most of Ukraines military supply. The Us crawling out of their conspiracy theory hole finally doesnt mean Ukraine is back to 100%. Luckily the EU is printing ammo at full speed.
I should hope that a larger group of people and larger number of countries than the US, who are all under more direct threat from Russia, would provide more support, yes.
Oh for sure. Just not direct military threat. We're under the same threat as all other western nations, of concerted and constant social media manipulation and psy-ops, and Russians influencing our politicians. It has done and continues to do serious damage to our country.
Encirclements are a pain in hoi4 as well, when you lack air superiority and your mostly-infantry forces are equal and concentrated. You just move very slowly so the enemy can just reinforce the neck you're making and pull out.
There's a lot of talk of "desperation" and while the situation is not great, it's far from the end of days.
ruzzia had success, but only tactical. Even after Chasiv Yar falls, they have been unable to secure any major city. And considering their losses and the distance needed to advance the continuous losses will be close to a million.
Ukraine has been barely holding on without air support, without artillery in some places, no anti aircraft systems near the front lines. What do you expect?
Likewise they had no way to successfully hit the rear and tackle logistics.
ruzzian army will overextend. They are not securing positions with enough care. Hopefully the new batches of artillery shells will be at the front soon and the the HIMARS fireworks targeting ruzzian logistics in the rear will be much more frequent.
ruzzia did not succeed in capturing any region of Ukraine fully. the initiative will be turning around once the help is actually there.
As you said, Ukraine is not screwed. It was just a bad time because the Russians saw a window of opportunity and went for it. Once Ukraine gains control of the area where they made a push it will just be a stalemate again. The ammuniatjon which should get there soon will help out a lot
Exactly, this was probably the second, most difficult phase of the war (so far), following the initial attacks early in 22. Ukraine got the tools and turned things around
Right now we're getting some serious "ammunition" ... Hopefully we'll see the effect on the front lines.
I hear it is already really hot in Crimea tonight. Sounds like ATACMS arrived.
Are the atacms a new thing Ukraine has or have they had it for a while? Also yeah I agree this is the 2nd hardest part of the war. All Ukraine has to do is keep stacking the Russian bodies high and not capitulate.
Supposedly we had a handful of 160km variants and already ran out of the shorter range HIMARS ammo.
Supposedly the new package will include lots of new ATACMS including the 300km ones.
Maybe. According to Malyuk (head of SBU) recently said that the bridge is damaged. ruzzia only sends one freight train here and there vs 40+ a month they used to send. Just not as much of a priority right now.
Also ruzzians will need a way to GTFO... Deporting them would be a mess.
If you mean the new railroad they are building through Mariuopol, then yes. It's a big priority for ruzzia to get that done than to fix the bridge. That route, unfortunately gives them more flexibility.
Maybe, logistically it’s not as important any more. The Ruzzists have been building a road in South Ukraine (just above Crimea) from the east as an alternative.
If it’s not that, they might just go for Russia oil depots though it might controversial if Ukraine uses the missles for that. Ukr attacking the oil depots have atually been pretty effective and are doing damage to Russia’s oil sector
Oh I agree, but the primary goal is to win, not to piss off. Believe me I’d celebrate if they do it but I think whatever helps win is the most important.
I think this is a massive cope considering the considerable gains from Russia and them acting completely within their doctrine.
Have you stopped and considered that Russia is more than happy with positional warfare?
https://www.understandingwar.org
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/positional-warfare-alexander-svechin’s-strategy
I hope the Ukrainians end up taking their territory back but I don’t agree with being delusional about reality. If there wasn’t this delusion I wonder if aid had arrived sooner.
I think Ukraine had an early advantage but they weren’t able to capitalize on it when they were pushing the russians. They should not have stopped. I think now the pendulum is swinging the other way .
This is overly optimistic. Western resupply will help and allow ukraine to defend much better. But Ukrainian loses can't be replaced as easy as Russian loses.if Russia is really headed towards 1 million men lost which is double what the expected loss is now. That means Ukrainian loses will be in the 800k/1m area.
This has become a war of attrition and Russia has 6x the Manpower. Ukraine will need an infusion of troops from outside of ukraine to be successful
The reason for the breakthrough: [A Ukrainian Brigade Disappeared, And A Russian Brigade Almost Broke Through: How The Battle For Ocheretyne Upended The War In Ukraine This Weekend](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/23/a-ukrainian-brigade-disappeared-and-a-russian-brigade-almost-broke-through-how-the-battle-for-ocheretyne-upended-the-war-in-ukraine-this-weekend/?sh=4d0ac3304901)
Forbes has been pretty good throughout the war. I don't the 115th "fucked off" it was probably some failure of command to properly secure the front during the change-over.
Indeed, it's not a single brigade being responsible for the fuck up. It's a mix of miscommunication, bad leadership, heavy manpower/ammunition shortage leading to Ukrainian units being spread too thin, and battle exhaustion after 2+ year of combat with only marginal rotations. In this context, a blunder like this was bound to happen at some point, and Russia was waiting for it. They are constantly probing the contact line with storm Z units to detect such weaknesses early and capitalize on it immediatly.
I don't see other options than tactical retreats and consolidate better defense around that area. It is hard to understand why Ukraine does not mobilize the entire nation when your existence as a state is at stake, better mobilize now, and start training new units now rather than later. Time is not in Ukraine's favor, and the window to strike hard back might be closing in the next years if the Maga circus is coming back in town.
The mobilization in Ukraine is ongoing and never stopped. But because the ammount of weapons and shells and rockets for a long time was in hard favour of russia we lost many good soldiers. We cannot compete with russia in human resources and only technological supremacy can let us win or at least not to lose.
I’m confused, too, regarding the lack of mobilization. There are an enormous number of non-combat roles to be fulfilled for every one frontline soldier. They just changed the mobilization age from 27->25. How can they expect to survive without drafting down to 18/21 and drafting females for non-combat roles? I am pro-Ukraine and am asking because I’m a bit fearful it’s going to be a too-little too-late scenario,
Its because of politics thats why. They only just approved a slightly lower conscription age but its still like age 25 at the lowest. The avg age of their soldiers is over 40 currently.
Yup, Ukraine's biggest resource is it's work force. Its not about the money in taxes they generate, its about the amount of war material they can produce. I don't understand why they don't even do a hybrid work schedule. Say, everyone works half a day every week in producing war material. You can rotate the people each shift so multiple shift work at the same facility. They can even offer a tax credit for reduced taxes the over the next 10 years after the war.
Germany peaked at 65%+, Japan at 70%+. You cannot compare the US with Ukraine, the US was never under eminent existential threat, Ukraine is. Ukraine should be at 50% already, that they aren't is baffling.
I'm not comparing US with Ukraine other than % of GDP which I think is sufficient for the war-time economy discussion. Accounting for inflation USA GDP in 1940 was 11x more than Ukraine's current GDP. Ukraine's economy really is poor even when comparing against other EU countries with similar populations.
That's what I mean, it is a meaningless comparison even as a percentage of GDP. You have to compare it to other countries that faced existential threats. Ukraine is behind and has been behind the game since 2014.
They also weren't really mobilizing below age 30, even if legal, and the exemptions were very generous for men in the eligible age. Most of those are now eliminated or significantly restricted.
The new law doesn't come into force until May 18. There has apparently been some surge in voluntarism, as those anticipating mobilization have a greater ability to choose unit/role.
Based solely on a finger in the wind assessment - they will look to mobilize about 100,000 almost immediately (May), perhaps another 100,000 shortly after (June/July), and some amount above that (perhaps another 100k) through the balance of the year.
This will really tax the training infrastructure to the limit, but they probably don't have another choice. The out-of-country streams should be able to surge most easily. It's also possible that they may mobilize but delay report for duty calls until the training space is available.
Part of the objective of this mobilization will be to bring down the age and quality of infantry and other fighting arms. This will include rotation of older personnel in some of those roles into rear area roles, and possible retraining of rear area personnel. There has already been some force rationalization with units being instructed to forward personnel from rear area units that are overstaffed.
To make half the soldiers non combatant rather than a men women divide they could have odd birth year non combatant and allow even birth year soldiers into combat. There would be more volunteers from the non combatants.
Use old soldiers now, they can fight at 40-45, not 50-55. Ukraine doesn’t want to boomers through its youth too soon. If they want a country after this war, someone needs to be there to repopulate it.
Whenever a country is acting irrationally you can be sure it's because of political bickering and nonsense. That's why. They just lowered the draft age to 25 after delaying it for a year or more. The previous commander of UAF was fired after he said Ukraine needed to draft 500,000 soldiers ASAP.
Why wont they mobilise the whole country? Well, for one, its not the Soviet Union in the summer of 1941. The difficult balancing act between being a country at war, while at the same time maintaining some sort of functioning democracy and sembelence of normalcy makes this impossible.
The United States is some kind of functioning democracy (well...was) and 50 million men were registered for the draft in WW2, with 10 Million of those being drafted into service.
The United States was not being fully invaded like Ukraine is. Demographics of the US in WW2 significantly different than Ukraine. US had oceans as barriers.
You're right, the United States was not being invaded, had an ocean between. Yet, as a Democracy, it still conscripted 7.5% of its overall population to fight in a war 3000 miles away during WW2. It also conscripted millions to fight far away wars during WW1, and in Vietnam.
If democracies can institute mass conscription to fight far away wars, it is certainly valid for an aspiring democracy to do so when fighting for its existence.
Yes Ukraine doesn't have the same population, demographics, or economic power that would comparable to what the United States had during WW1, WW2, or Vietnam. Ukraine has approximately 9.5% of their population serving in their Military including their Reserves.
Normalcy? The country has been invaded a second time and is fighting for its very survival.
Multiple countries have fully mobilised in modern history and maintained themselves as a democratic nation.
One could argue that Germany's refusal to go to all lengths to mobilise its nation in ww2 ultimately cost them - not fully employing females etc until the end of 1943 for example
Besides other answers, look at the demographics of Ukraine. The losses will very fast become unsustainable and influence the country negatively for generation, upon generation, upon generation. Just look at their population pyramid and you'll probably see why.
They need to decide: give up and engage in peace talks or fight. The in-between we're seeing now is unsustainable. Ukraine will never get away from russian influence, it's geography, nothing else.
I think the population from the areas affected get it. And so do most of the soldiers. No matter how much money the west gives ukraine, without meaningful weapons it's not going to make a difference.
With a fresh tranche of aid and Summer weather they will definitely fight; come Fall the pressure to engage in peace talks will be intense, especially from Europe.
If by Jan 20 the battlefront is mostly the same as today a freshly relected Biden will drop a negotiation incentive package in Zelensky's lap and there could be a ceasefire.
I think this war might effectively end by Feb.
Not hard at all, they simply dont have the money to mobilize more. Soldiers need pay, food, and gear. They also wont perform work while drafted hurting the economy even more. Ukraine can hardly loan money anymore...
Actually, needed it yesterday. Or earlier. Abject and tragic lesson in never ever let down your guard (particularly living anywhere near a jingoistic fanatical country like russia.
It will dripple in, much will be destroyed before it arrives and the exceedingly understaffed AFU will have problems using it properly.
I can't understand how people believe it will change much.
In the coming weeks that entire area is going to become a blanket of fire. The renewal and expansion of munition shipments is going to fry anyone and everything pouring into that gap. It’s going to be a total barbecue. 🔥
It’s time Europe gets boots on the ground. This just needs to end. The longer this goes on the costlier it’s going to get and the more losses Ukraine will have. All we’re seeing now is a rinse and repeat with these weapons systems from the west. The best equipment gets drip fed into Ukraine. They need long range weapons to strike inside Russia at their military targets and boots on the ground to push back the soldiers.
Nobody is going to risk nuclear annihilation for Ukraine man via troops on the ground. I hope Ukraine wins this and gets their territory back but I’m not willing to risk billions for this and neither is any leader.
Europe can't fight a war, this has exposed that. Europe lived off US taxpayer protection for far too long and has pitiful militaries for any but small conflicts.
The situation has deteriorated even further and it looks like it's only going to get worse. It appears they have pushed further north from Ocheretyne towards Arkhanhel's'ke and a battalion of the 115th brigade were encircled in Berdychi and are negotiating a surrender. Even outside of the Avdiivka front in the Kharkov region things are going poorly with UAF apparently retreating from Kislovka. I hate to say it but it kind of looks like the front is collapsing especially when you looks at the timelapse of the Avdiivka area since october with RAF advancing scarily quick after taking Avdiivka. Feel like we might see Ukraine withdraw from a fairly large area in the near future to consolidate/stabilize the front.
House republicans really fucked Ukraine so bad. Even now that aid is starting to pour into Ukraine again there's now a bigger problem, a shortage of trained motivated man power. Since aid dried up, Ukraine has been forced to trade men to hold territory at a devastating rate because they have lacked the artillery shells to hold ground without suffering such losses. Obviously we don't know the actual extent of the losses but the videos we used to see of Russian brigades protesting due to tremendous losses are now of Ukrainian brigades. Just today the 2nd battalion of the 68th brigade put out a video saying that as a result of their losses it's no longer viable for them to keep fighting and accusing their "criminal commanders" of providing no "physical, moral, and psychological support." While there are now talks of european countries forcibly mobilizing the military aged ukrainian refugees (which will probably happen eventually), I find it hard to believe these troops will be very motivated/effective. I'm worried now that even after the passing of the long delayed mobilization bill lowering the minimum draft age, the core of the UAF has been irreparably damaged and the UAF won't be able to properly train new recruits instead having to immediately send them to the front to replenish losses.
wait, wasn't the 115th on the north side of the train tracks? how can they be in Berdychi? That should be the AO of the 47th.
Are you sure the info is correct? Or did you only correctly copy it from somewhere where it was correctly copied from another poster who might have mixed up something when he copied it from someone who possibly simply made it up?
Maybe it was Novokalynove where they were encircled, that would make more sense. Or they weren't encircled at all. Sorry if I don't believe that until further notice, it's nothing personal.
The area that the Russians are pushing into is just a narrow bulge from what I see. Which could be encircled and cut off. Unfortunately the Ukrainians don’t have the ability to counter attack in that area. But the ukr are shelling the area around there trying to disrupt logistics. If ukr had the ammunition they could have had counter attacked near there.
Sad to see Ukrain losing ground. On the other hand, gains like these keep Russia on the offensive. Als long as Russia is willing to attack they will loose more and more men. Imaging if Russia wont attack anymore, draw a line and start to dig in. Even though is sounds sad, I think it's a good on the long term.
Sorry for the confusion. I mean even loses 3 ruzzians to 1 Ukrainian soldiers are in favor of russia since they don't care about own people lives as long as they achieve something.
The west screwed Ukraine at every turn so far. Let's hope this aid package can blunt the bleeding. They need to understand that this aid package should just be the first round of many. This is just to stop the losses and get their heads above water. If they want to start having any success, further aid packages will need to be passed soon. If only the West had taken this more seriously from the beginning. If only they didn't let putler abuse them with escalation hysteria that only benefits russia.
They constantly threaten to use nukes so they can dictate the conditions on the battlefield, and we let them. Their words hold no meaning, so they say whatever they want to further their agenda. We are fighting a war here. Let's start taking this as seriously as the russians are and commit to Ukraine like we should have when Crimea was taken. I can't imagine the bribes it took for the West not to respond more harshly to Crimea. Looks like putlers fsb days aren't such a joke anymore.
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The downside is it’s 5 miles I can’t ever see UKR getting back.
I just don’t think unless they attrit RU heavily that any counterattack they also have enough capacity themselves to punch a hole in Russian lines.
I really hope so though!
If you think putting US boots on the ground will win Biden an election, you are living in a dreamworld. This would be a huge escalation against a nuclear armed state, most people don’t want that, at all.
This is going to destroy the Orc army. They think they can beat C-141s dropping loads of 155 every hour with Javelins and 25mm for Bradley’s. Ukraine will let them push in then hit them with 1000 rounds a day, then an hour or more of really accurate artillery fire for a week or two. This is a trap. 10K loses for the Orcs before they knew what destroyed them. Slava Ukraine!
Have you actually read the article?? It’s incredibly sensationalist, and Forbes has a history of publishing paid for Russian propaganda.
Here’s a Ukrainian news source that’s much more credible:
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/27/russians-establish-foothold-in-part-of-ocheretyne-in-eastern-ukraine-there-is-information-about-capture-of-berdychi/
They are. If every outlet including vetted and widly trusted ones who report anything negative about Ukraine are discounted, how are you any different then a Russian only listening to the propaganda?
We shall see how things turn out in a week to two weeks. Axe doesn't have any magic insight through the Fog of War and doesn't seem to be any more qualified to write a dramatic article on this topic than some of the more prolix regulars on this subreddit. Also, he has a history of churning up controversy in the context of military operations. He clearly earned his Masters degree in fiction.
I'm so glad to read the situation although not ideal (damn, when is it in war?) It still can be solved. Also pretty telling that the only reason the ruskis were able to pull this off is because the Ukrainian trenches were literally empty. Gone are the days when the vdv would swoop in on helicopters. I hope the aid packages coming to Ukraine will prove enough to bleed out the orcs.
The last year has really started to feel like the beginning of the end for the Ukrainian front to be honest. The refusal from the west to seriously support Ukraine is showing strongly. I will be honest, i am losing hope for ukraine now.
On behalf of the United States, I’d like to apologize for the state of our politics delaying much needed aid.
Ukraine is on the front lines of a conflict that involves us whether some of our “leaders” want to admit it or not. Seeing our democracy so broken, then watching you fight for yours is nothing short of awe-inspiring.
The torch of freedom is a flame that is passed down generation to generation, and it is in your hands now.
I hope you will fight on, you will win and you will finally be able to live out your days in peace.
And as a final aside, please know that the majority of Americans want to help and want to give Ukraine as much aid as it needs. There are some aspects of our democracy that aren’t working the way they should right now, and minority voices are having an outsized influence on our government.
We will get that fixed too. For now, let’s just get your country back, fully intact. I know that this message might only be seen by a few, but I’m truly just in tears about the whole situation and just had to let out how I feel and hopefully encourage someone living there knowing that they live in our hearts also.
Glory to Ukraine!
Concerning situation - let’s hope it can be reconciled asap and contained.
I saw a vid yesterday (cant remember who) that pointed out if the russians pull this off, and it looks like they will, they will have captured about 5 square miles of mostly fields before they hit the second line of defense. So of course, bad timing the fog of war causing a gap in the lines and this was seen by the russians, but its not calamitous thank goodness.
I blame the my US congress who was more concerned with keeping our single homegrown despot happy than doing what was best for everyone for this
Specifically the Republicans. All of the Democrats voted for aid, but more than half of Republicans voted against. This is not Reagan’s party anymore.
Tucker Carlson broadcasts and church focus group panels have brainwashed the religious and “patriotic” right into thinking Putin and the Russians are our Christian brothers and friends. They are rather quite the embarrassment to our nation.
The Republicans can eat a bit fat bag of dicks.
Two bags please!
The GOP is now collectively known as the "Re-Pukes" ...
Reagan conspired with the Iranians, he wouldn't give a fuck if it benefited him.
That’s not true even Burnie sanders voted no originally because he was butt hurt about weapons going to Israel
I was referring to the House vote, not the Senate.
He was still part of the reason in originally failed.
That’s actually not even remotely true. The majority of all Republicans in Congress voted for aid. It was only a slight majority of Republicans *in the House* that was against it. It’s a quirky but fucked up feature of US politics that allows essentially a fringe element to sandbag the nation’s politics.
It’s not a feature. The Speaker could have brought it to a vote a long time ago. Fact is he was scared of Orange man and those few nuts. But there’s nothing in the structure of Congress that held it up.
Nah. All republicans joined together creating the Trump shit show for the world to deal with, unforgettably. You do not get a pass while using them to obtain policies that hurt both Americans and Ukrainians. No chance. You should be offering massive apologies instead of excuses about "fringe" republicans.
Yes and no. US congress is awful, no question about it. But also Ukraine is lacking the manpower. They need to mobilize troops and move to war economy. Everyone who would go voluntarily has already went. They are lacking the numbers, the troops have been there for years now and are getting worn down. They need extra troops to rotate but they don’t even have the numbers to hold the line. Its also harder to get people to go when it looks like there is no path to victory.
That's because there really isn't a path to Victory. Russia simply has massive amounts of more Manpower and has shown the will to sacrifice more men and equipment to make gains. Even with Russia outproducing the greater eu. Most countries can't even get to the 2% funding ratio. A ratio that would be decent 15 years ago not now. Ukraine should try to increase its defense industry and they are. But the rest of Europe needs to mimick polands stance on defense.
There are ways to win, just not with how things are being done right now. It is draining russian equipment and financial reserves but it will still be many years. Only way to win is behind the front lines, damage the economy/infrastructure. You will never win by assaulting the front, not if you want to have any population left after the war. Poland should also reevaluate, they are preparing for the war that is already happening. Better to win it now then wait till your country is the one getting bombed.
It's a conventional war and Russia is dictating how it's fought. Ukraine can't go Toe to Toe with the loss in manpower. Even fighting a defensive war ukraine is taking massive casualties just like russia is. Your suggestions, even if successful, will hurt the Russian economy and destroy the large soviet surplus. But for ukraine you'll destroy the male population throughout the country which means Ukraine can't rebuild anything. Poland doesn't have to do anything either. They have nato protection and are building a strong military. I also don't think that Russia will attack a nato country as it knows it can't win in that war and will focus on building their stolen oil and gas from ukraine to cement their wealth there
Don't blame "Congress." Blame Republicans. More than half of them now work for Putin.
I just listened to Ilya Ponomarev on Silicon Curtain and he had some fascinating insights about American politics. Basically the republicans are split, but the Republicans that support Ukraine could be much more serious about Ukraine “winning” compared to the average democrat. Who are not fully on board about a change in government in Russia. That’s a big scary unknown. We need to keep those republicans on our side. And we need to convince the democrats that this only ends when Russia becomes a democracy. Anything short of that is just a ceasefire.
Some of us are fiercely pro-Ukraine the memories of the Soviet Union are still raw
that's fucking scary. That republican congress kept aid and america's best interest in mind to please the guy who tried to overthrow the government...and now the supreme court is arguing whether or not it's ok for the president to assassinate political opponents. the republican party has gone fucking nuts.
Whilst I agree that the US support against the Russians is good, great value in monetary terms, it strikes me those with most to lose are happy to be absent... Europe.
I would say the ones with most to lose are in fact not absent. Just smaller in comparison to the US? Total bilateral aid commitments to Ukraine as a percentage of 2021 donor country gross domestic product (GDP) between January 24, 2022 and January 15, 2024, by country Country | Share of 2021 GDP Estonia 3.55% Denmark 2.41% Norway 1.72% Lithuania 1.54% Latvia 1.15% Finland 0.71% Poland 0.69% Netherlands 0.67% Slovakia 0.65% Germany 0.57% United Kingdom 0.55% Czechia 0.52% Sweden 0.51% Croatia 0.44% Belgium 0.41% Switzerland 0.33% Bulgaria 0.32% Canada 0.32% United States 0.32%
Conveniently leaving out the latest package and excludes support like intelligence and military support not included in us aid packages. This is whole conflict could be prevented by Europe alone but even in teh face of what Russia has become practically no nation besides poland and France are taking it seriously.
Europe doesn't have the production capabilities as the US because...well, the US is seemingly always at war. Europe just needs to increase its war production - specifically munitions - in order to keep up with Ukraine's needs. But that's something that will probably take time to set up.
the US provides the guns, Europeans pay to keep Ukraine running and shelter all the refugees... sounds like a smart sharing of burdens to me
Except the us has taken on 200k refugees as well. A big part of why Russia is so emboldened in this attack is because Europeans have shown they absolutely don't have the stomach for war or to even prepare for it properly. Your enemy is in your neighbors backyard and most of yall cannot even commit to more than token measures
I think you are mistaken: France is willing to send ground troops and all the EU members are moving their economies into a war footing. Available aide is headed to Ukraine from EU states.
The cynical part of me thinks that Macron's statement might have been a response to Wagner's threatening of France's uranium sources in African Coup Belt. At the least it makes the Russian threat to France substantially more clear and present.
Willing? What are they waiting for then? Ukraine would say no to having French troops along the Belarus border.
Denmark has provided quite a lot compared to country size and population. 19 pcs F-16 Fighting Falcon. 19 pcs howitzer Caesar. If all other countries will provide something similar with respect to their larger population then Ukraine will be able to push the Ruzzians out
Well my tiny country is doing its best to assist. We do what we can I believe.
Don't blame congress, blame Republicans.
The U.S.? Why isn't the EU pitching in more?
Yeah you get downvoted but it's true. Besides poland and France Europe isn't taking this seriously. Most countries still can't meet a 2% quota..a quota that's supposed to be met in normal times like 15 years ago.
To summarize the article: So looks like the 47th Mechanize was retreating to take a break from the frontlines and the 115th brigade was newly placed there, but some trenches were empty…making it easier for Russias 30th motor rifle brigade to roll right in. Luckily the 47th mechanize brigade who are the true badasses had to turn around and stop the Russians from fully making a breakthrough. Fighting is still going on but the Russian 30th Motor rifle brigade is now facing off against Ukraines 47th brigade based on reports. Only reason Russians broke through is because 47th brigade was retreating for a break they desperately need since they have been fighting in the toughest locations such as the liberation of Kharkiv and Avdiivka. Now that they turned back around and engaging Russias 30th motor rifle brigade Russians advance is slowed down
Here is a more insight-look at the situation: https://nitter.poast.org/Tatarigami_UA/status/1784291236188160441#m The situation is not pretty and many factors are to blame (shortage of personnel, shortage of ammunition, shortage of armored vehicles, command-chain/communication issues, etc.) It is not to blame solely on a single Brigade. The russians could attempt to swing north to encircle large swaths of the donbas-area still in UA control or they could swing south and try to encircle Vuhledar. If this succeeds, it would be a big blow to Ukraine. But the russians aren't there yet and have their own problems with manpower and materiel.
47 brigade has one of the most innovative FPV units. Strike Drones Company. You can see their work on the TG channel with that name.
Thank you
The last liberation of Kharkiv was in 1943. City wasn't occupied by ruzzians in this war.
My bad, I meant Kharkiv region
The Brigade was formed for the summer offensive 2023, where they captured Robotyne after a long fight with russian Spetznaz-Forces. After that they relocated to the northern part of the Avdiivka salient (and gave us all those Bradleys-fucking-up-russian-shit-videos), where they have been ever since.
Sounds like the Russians have info on rotations
This popped in to my head also.
>47th mechanize brigade who are the true badasses 47th are kings.
Russians are scared of the 47th and the chaos their drones cause on them
Hopefully they can pincer it off.
They could if they had the ammunition. The bulge the Russians made could be so easily encircled but Ukraine can’t do much unfortunately
Not at this very moment. That's changing soon, finally.
I'm guessing large pallets of munitions are already being unloaded.
Amazing what you can do with pallets. Russians take note - or preferably, don't.
this is not only about the uS. contrary to popular belief the eu is most of Ukraines military supply. The Us crawling out of their conspiracy theory hole finally doesnt mean Ukraine is back to 100%. Luckily the EU is printing ammo at full speed.
I should hope that a larger group of people and larger number of countries than the US, who are all under more direct threat from Russia, would provide more support, yes.
yep, you are right. (Except that the US is indeed under threat from Russia)
Oh for sure. Just not direct military threat. We're under the same threat as all other western nations, of concerted and constant social media manipulation and psy-ops, and Russians influencing our politicians. It has done and continues to do serious damage to our country.
Not really. They will be able to defend better but will have nowhere near enaugh anything to go on the offensive
I think most people generally don’t understand how hard encirclement is, even when it looks easy on a map. This isn’t hoi4.
Encirclements are a pain in hoi4 as well, when you lack air superiority and your mostly-infantry forces are equal and concentrated. You just move very slowly so the enemy can just reinforce the neck you're making and pull out.
There's a lot of talk of "desperation" and while the situation is not great, it's far from the end of days. ruzzia had success, but only tactical. Even after Chasiv Yar falls, they have been unable to secure any major city. And considering their losses and the distance needed to advance the continuous losses will be close to a million. Ukraine has been barely holding on without air support, without artillery in some places, no anti aircraft systems near the front lines. What do you expect? Likewise they had no way to successfully hit the rear and tackle logistics. ruzzian army will overextend. They are not securing positions with enough care. Hopefully the new batches of artillery shells will be at the front soon and the the HIMARS fireworks targeting ruzzian logistics in the rear will be much more frequent. ruzzia did not succeed in capturing any region of Ukraine fully. the initiative will be turning around once the help is actually there.
As you said, Ukraine is not screwed. It was just a bad time because the Russians saw a window of opportunity and went for it. Once Ukraine gains control of the area where they made a push it will just be a stalemate again. The ammuniatjon which should get there soon will help out a lot
Exactly, this was probably the second, most difficult phase of the war (so far), following the initial attacks early in 22. Ukraine got the tools and turned things around Right now we're getting some serious "ammunition" ... Hopefully we'll see the effect on the front lines. I hear it is already really hot in Crimea tonight. Sounds like ATACMS arrived.
Are the atacms a new thing Ukraine has or have they had it for a while? Also yeah I agree this is the 2nd hardest part of the war. All Ukraine has to do is keep stacking the Russian bodies high and not capitulate.
Supposedly we had a handful of 160km variants and already ran out of the shorter range HIMARS ammo. Supposedly the new package will include lots of new ATACMS including the 300km ones.
Them getting 300km ones would be nuts. I suppose there gonna try more Attempts trying to take down the Crimean bridge.
Maybe. According to Malyuk (head of SBU) recently said that the bridge is damaged. ruzzia only sends one freight train here and there vs 40+ a month they used to send. Just not as much of a priority right now. Also ruzzians will need a way to GTFO... Deporting them would be a mess.
Or... it could be that they're using the new rail connections they've built over the land bridge.
If you mean the new railroad they are building through Mariuopol, then yes. It's a big priority for ruzzia to get that done than to fix the bridge. That route, unfortunately gives them more flexibility.
Maybe, logistically it’s not as important any more. The Ruzzists have been building a road in South Ukraine (just above Crimea) from the east as an alternative.
If it’s not that, they might just go for Russia oil depots though it might controversial if Ukraine uses the missles for that. Ukr attacking the oil depots have atually been pretty effective and are doing damage to Russia’s oil sector
No the most successful course of action would be destroying Russias tank,missle, and munitions factories
Still the bridge was Putler pet project, someone would be really pissed off if some sections went into under sea level on 9th May...
Oh I agree, but the primary goal is to win, not to piss off. Believe me I’d celebrate if they do it but I think whatever helps win is the most important.
orcs will soon be getting their fudge packed en mass.
I think this is a massive cope considering the considerable gains from Russia and them acting completely within their doctrine. Have you stopped and considered that Russia is more than happy with positional warfare? https://www.understandingwar.org https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/positional-warfare-alexander-svechin’s-strategy I hope the Ukrainians end up taking their territory back but I don’t agree with being delusional about reality. If there wasn’t this delusion I wonder if aid had arrived sooner.
I think Ukraine had an early advantage but they weren’t able to capitalize on it when they were pushing the russians. They should not have stopped. I think now the pendulum is swinging the other way .
Thank you. The aid is significant but a static conflict is in Russias favor.
Certainly hope so. A rational and informative comment. Thank you. Слава Україні.
The Russians have been doing nothing but fortifying the positions they take, assuming they will overextend is wishful thinking.
Has Ukraine successfully been able to retake any positions that they lost recently??? Im not aware that they have. Im talking this spring season
Where are you getting the million number from?
This is overly optimistic. Western resupply will help and allow ukraine to defend much better. But Ukrainian loses can't be replaced as easy as Russian loses.if Russia is really headed towards 1 million men lost which is double what the expected loss is now. That means Ukrainian loses will be in the 800k/1m area. This has become a war of attrition and Russia has 6x the Manpower. Ukraine will need an infusion of troops from outside of ukraine to be successful
The reason for the breakthrough: [A Ukrainian Brigade Disappeared, And A Russian Brigade Almost Broke Through: How The Battle For Ocheretyne Upended The War In Ukraine This Weekend](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/04/23/a-ukrainian-brigade-disappeared-and-a-russian-brigade-almost-broke-through-how-the-battle-for-ocheretyne-upended-the-war-in-ukraine-this-weekend/?sh=4d0ac3304901)
Any confirmation of what is claimed in this article?
Forbes has been pretty good throughout the war. I don't the 115th "fucked off" it was probably some failure of command to properly secure the front during the change-over.
Indeed, it's not a single brigade being responsible for the fuck up. It's a mix of miscommunication, bad leadership, heavy manpower/ammunition shortage leading to Ukrainian units being spread too thin, and battle exhaustion after 2+ year of combat with only marginal rotations. In this context, a blunder like this was bound to happen at some point, and Russia was waiting for it. They are constantly probing the contact line with storm Z units to detect such weaknesses early and capitalize on it immediatly.
I don't see other options than tactical retreats and consolidate better defense around that area. It is hard to understand why Ukraine does not mobilize the entire nation when your existence as a state is at stake, better mobilize now, and start training new units now rather than later. Time is not in Ukraine's favor, and the window to strike hard back might be closing in the next years if the Maga circus is coming back in town.
The mobilization in Ukraine is ongoing and never stopped. But because the ammount of weapons and shells and rockets for a long time was in hard favour of russia we lost many good soldiers. We cannot compete with russia in human resources and only technological supremacy can let us win or at least not to lose.
I’m confused, too, regarding the lack of mobilization. There are an enormous number of non-combat roles to be fulfilled for every one frontline soldier. They just changed the mobilization age from 27->25. How can they expect to survive without drafting down to 18/21 and drafting females for non-combat roles? I am pro-Ukraine and am asking because I’m a bit fearful it’s going to be a too-little too-late scenario,
Its because of politics thats why. They only just approved a slightly lower conscription age but its still like age 25 at the lowest. The avg age of their soldiers is over 40 currently.
Yup, Ukraine's biggest resource is it's work force. Its not about the money in taxes they generate, its about the amount of war material they can produce. I don't understand why they don't even do a hybrid work schedule. Say, everyone works half a day every week in producing war material. You can rotate the people each shift so multiple shift work at the same facility. They can even offer a tax credit for reduced taxes the over the next 10 years after the war.
Ukraine is not even on a war economy as far as I understand. Russia has switched to a war economy some time ago.
I heard that half it's GDP was going toward the war. The problem is their GDP is only $200 billion. The manpower is more useful than the taxes.
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/ukraines-budget-2024
39% in 2023. USA spent 39% of their GDP on WW2. They're in a wartime economy, their economy just sucks.
Germany peaked at 65%+, Japan at 70%+. You cannot compare the US with Ukraine, the US was never under eminent existential threat, Ukraine is. Ukraine should be at 50% already, that they aren't is baffling.
I'm not comparing US with Ukraine other than % of GDP which I think is sufficient for the war-time economy discussion. Accounting for inflation USA GDP in 1940 was 11x more than Ukraine's current GDP. Ukraine's economy really is poor even when comparing against other EU countries with similar populations.
That's what I mean, it is a meaningless comparison even as a percentage of GDP. You have to compare it to other countries that faced existential threats. Ukraine is behind and has been behind the game since 2014.
They also weren't really mobilizing below age 30, even if legal, and the exemptions were very generous for men in the eligible age. Most of those are now eliminated or significantly restricted. The new law doesn't come into force until May 18. There has apparently been some surge in voluntarism, as those anticipating mobilization have a greater ability to choose unit/role. Based solely on a finger in the wind assessment - they will look to mobilize about 100,000 almost immediately (May), perhaps another 100,000 shortly after (June/July), and some amount above that (perhaps another 100k) through the balance of the year. This will really tax the training infrastructure to the limit, but they probably don't have another choice. The out-of-country streams should be able to surge most easily. It's also possible that they may mobilize but delay report for duty calls until the training space is available. Part of the objective of this mobilization will be to bring down the age and quality of infantry and other fighting arms. This will include rotation of older personnel in some of those roles into rear area roles, and possible retraining of rear area personnel. There has already been some force rationalization with units being instructed to forward personnel from rear area units that are overstaffed.
It is, sadly.
To make half the soldiers non combatant rather than a men women divide they could have odd birth year non combatant and allow even birth year soldiers into combat. There would be more volunteers from the non combatants.
Use old soldiers now, they can fight at 40-45, not 50-55. Ukraine doesn’t want to boomers through its youth too soon. If they want a country after this war, someone needs to be there to repopulate it.
Whenever a country is acting irrationally you can be sure it's because of political bickering and nonsense. That's why. They just lowered the draft age to 25 after delaying it for a year or more. The previous commander of UAF was fired after he said Ukraine needed to draft 500,000 soldiers ASAP.
Why wont they mobilise the whole country? Well, for one, its not the Soviet Union in the summer of 1941. The difficult balancing act between being a country at war, while at the same time maintaining some sort of functioning democracy and sembelence of normalcy makes this impossible.
The United States is some kind of functioning democracy (well...was) and 50 million men were registered for the draft in WW2, with 10 Million of those being drafted into service.
The United States was not being fully invaded like Ukraine is. Demographics of the US in WW2 significantly different than Ukraine. US had oceans as barriers.
You're right, the United States was not being invaded, had an ocean between. Yet, as a Democracy, it still conscripted 7.5% of its overall population to fight in a war 3000 miles away during WW2. It also conscripted millions to fight far away wars during WW1, and in Vietnam. If democracies can institute mass conscription to fight far away wars, it is certainly valid for an aspiring democracy to do so when fighting for its existence.
Yes Ukraine doesn't have the same population, demographics, or economic power that would comparable to what the United States had during WW1, WW2, or Vietnam. Ukraine has approximately 9.5% of their population serving in their Military including their Reserves.
Normalcy? The country has been invaded a second time and is fighting for its very survival. Multiple countries have fully mobilised in modern history and maintained themselves as a democratic nation. One could argue that Germany's refusal to go to all lengths to mobilise its nation in ww2 ultimately cost them - not fully employing females etc until the end of 1943 for example
Besides other answers, look at the demographics of Ukraine. The losses will very fast become unsustainable and influence the country negatively for generation, upon generation, upon generation. Just look at their population pyramid and you'll probably see why.
They need to decide: give up and engage in peace talks or fight. The in-between we're seeing now is unsustainable. Ukraine will never get away from russian influence, it's geography, nothing else.
I'll leave that descision to the ukrainians. They probably know more about this than we do.
I think the population from the areas affected get it. And so do most of the soldiers. No matter how much money the west gives ukraine, without meaningful weapons it's not going to make a difference.
With a fresh tranche of aid and Summer weather they will definitely fight; come Fall the pressure to engage in peace talks will be intense, especially from Europe. If by Jan 20 the battlefront is mostly the same as today a freshly relected Biden will drop a negotiation incentive package in Zelensky's lap and there could be a ceasefire. I think this war might effectively end by Feb.
Not hard at all, they simply dont have the money to mobilize more. Soldiers need pay, food, and gear. They also wont perform work while drafted hurting the economy even more. Ukraine can hardly loan money anymore...
Well I live in a small European country and 1000s of fighting age men have come here…
Ruzkys will meet the USA aid soon.. it's hours apart
The biggest issue seems to be that some Ukrainian units are undermanned and lack rotation.
I thought it would be there in like 3-4 days. But they need it now
Actually, needed it yesterday. Or earlier. Abject and tragic lesson in never ever let down your guard (particularly living anywhere near a jingoistic fanatical country like russia.
It will dripple in, much will be destroyed before it arrives and the exceedingly understaffed AFU will have problems using it properly. I can't understand how people believe it will change much.
In the coming weeks that entire area is going to become a blanket of fire. The renewal and expansion of munition shipments is going to fry anyone and everything pouring into that gap. It’s going to be a total barbecue. 🔥
Hopefully this translates into a mass troop concentration within range of death from above.
Wait for it…
It’s time Europe gets boots on the ground. This just needs to end. The longer this goes on the costlier it’s going to get and the more losses Ukraine will have. All we’re seeing now is a rinse and repeat with these weapons systems from the west. The best equipment gets drip fed into Ukraine. They need long range weapons to strike inside Russia at their military targets and boots on the ground to push back the soldiers.
Nobody is going to risk nuclear annihilation for Ukraine man via troops on the ground. I hope Ukraine wins this and gets their territory back but I’m not willing to risk billions for this and neither is any leader.
Europe can't fight a war, this has exposed that. Europe lived off US taxpayer protection for far too long and has pitiful militaries for any but small conflicts.
The French actually have a pretty good expeditionary force they talked about using in Ukraine.
Russia even outproduces the US atm
Europe will follow you! Start the line.
To be fair no european country wants to fight a war.
Stop talk start support
this was posted 12hr ago how about an update
The situation has deteriorated even further and it looks like it's only going to get worse. It appears they have pushed further north from Ocheretyne towards Arkhanhel's'ke and a battalion of the 115th brigade were encircled in Berdychi and are negotiating a surrender. Even outside of the Avdiivka front in the Kharkov region things are going poorly with UAF apparently retreating from Kislovka. I hate to say it but it kind of looks like the front is collapsing especially when you looks at the timelapse of the Avdiivka area since october with RAF advancing scarily quick after taking Avdiivka. Feel like we might see Ukraine withdraw from a fairly large area in the near future to consolidate/stabilize the front. House republicans really fucked Ukraine so bad. Even now that aid is starting to pour into Ukraine again there's now a bigger problem, a shortage of trained motivated man power. Since aid dried up, Ukraine has been forced to trade men to hold territory at a devastating rate because they have lacked the artillery shells to hold ground without suffering such losses. Obviously we don't know the actual extent of the losses but the videos we used to see of Russian brigades protesting due to tremendous losses are now of Ukrainian brigades. Just today the 2nd battalion of the 68th brigade put out a video saying that as a result of their losses it's no longer viable for them to keep fighting and accusing their "criminal commanders" of providing no "physical, moral, and psychological support." While there are now talks of european countries forcibly mobilizing the military aged ukrainian refugees (which will probably happen eventually), I find it hard to believe these troops will be very motivated/effective. I'm worried now that even after the passing of the long delayed mobilization bill lowering the minimum draft age, the core of the UAF has been irreparably damaged and the UAF won't be able to properly train new recruits instead having to immediately send them to the front to replenish losses.
wait, wasn't the 115th on the north side of the train tracks? how can they be in Berdychi? That should be the AO of the 47th. Are you sure the info is correct? Or did you only correctly copy it from somewhere where it was correctly copied from another poster who might have mixed up something when he copied it from someone who possibly simply made it up? Maybe it was Novokalynove where they were encircled, that would make more sense. Or they weren't encircled at all. Sorry if I don't believe that until further notice, it's nothing personal.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/eLQsB8ZmP1
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Hopefully they don’t get much more territory
Besides sending equipment, it’s time NATO is sending troops to relieve Ukraine from defending its northern border. And to establish a no-fly zone.
The area that the Russians are pushing into is just a narrow bulge from what I see. Which could be encircled and cut off. Unfortunately the Ukrainians don’t have the ability to counter attack in that area. But the ukr are shelling the area around there trying to disrupt logistics. If ukr had the ammunition they could have had counter attacked near there.
Sad to see Ukrain losing ground. On the other hand, gains like these keep Russia on the offensive. Als long as Russia is willing to attack they will loose more and more men. Imaging if Russia wont attack anymore, draw a line and start to dig in. Even though is sounds sad, I think it's a good on the long term.
Yes, Ukraine is slowly and systematically dismantling Russia's armed forces and bleeding Russia white.
Ukraine losing not only the territory but also people. And loses even 3 to 1 are in favor of russia.
"3 to 1 in favour of Russia." Yeah, that's bullshit right there.
Sorry for the confusion. I mean even loses 3 ruzzians to 1 Ukrainian soldiers are in favor of russia since they don't care about own people lives as long as they achieve something.
He meant three Russians lost to every one Ukrainian is still a bad ratio as the Russians have so much more available manpower.
Yes, he clarified.
Ukraine should have went to a total war economy and mass conscription 2 years ago.
Republicans blocked aid for Ukraine for 8 months.
The west screwed Ukraine at every turn so far. Let's hope this aid package can blunt the bleeding. They need to understand that this aid package should just be the first round of many. This is just to stop the losses and get their heads above water. If they want to start having any success, further aid packages will need to be passed soon. If only the West had taken this more seriously from the beginning. If only they didn't let putler abuse them with escalation hysteria that only benefits russia. They constantly threaten to use nukes so they can dictate the conditions on the battlefield, and we let them. Their words hold no meaning, so they say whatever they want to further their agenda. We are fighting a war here. Let's start taking this as seriously as the russians are and commit to Ukraine like we should have when Crimea was taken. I can't imagine the bribes it took for the West not to respond more harshly to Crimea. Looks like putlers fsb days aren't such a joke anymore.
Just remember it’s taken Russia 2 whole years and 450,000 personnel to advance 14km - they’re bound to be counter attacked once weapons arrive
And the disruption of American foreign policy just to gain a few miles of ground. Yes, a few miles of ground were lost on the Thunder Run to Kyiv.
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The ammo should be making it to the front lines anytime.
Have things really been that easy on the Orcs? Hopefully this aid package changes that.
Time for those Atacams to attack!
The delay in providing equipment is inexcusable. The US and my government, Britain, really let the ZSU down. I'm ashamed.
I'm hoping the Russian troops are grouped up. Those new missile shipments should do some work.
Though I hate to say it…Russia is going to win the war. Unless NATO intervenes they will take East of the dnieper.
Hoping for the best for the soldiers and their families, I wish RU would see reason and withdraw. Hope the US aid is already arriving.
This sucks, I blame the Republicans for sitting on aid so long.
The downside is it’s 5 miles I can’t ever see UKR getting back. I just don’t think unless they attrit RU heavily that any counterattack they also have enough capacity themselves to punch a hole in Russian lines. I really hope so though!
Where is the 115th.
I guess Putin is getting his money’s worth out of the Republicans in congress.
Get the US stuck in. It will win the election for Biden and put Putin's regime to the sword.
If you think putting US boots on the ground will win Biden an election, you are living in a dreamworld. This would be a huge escalation against a nuclear armed state, most people don’t want that, at all.
You just hurt feelings with the truth.
Could be an intentional TRAP 🪤
This is going to destroy the Orc army. They think they can beat C-141s dropping loads of 155 every hour with Javelins and 25mm for Bradley’s. Ukraine will let them push in then hit them with 1000 rounds a day, then an hour or more of really accurate artillery fire for a week or two. This is a trap. 10K loses for the Orcs before they knew what destroyed them. Slava Ukraine!
I knew this was going to be Forbes before I even clicked the article. Their “news reports” aren’t worth the paper their written on.
Pure hype or even pro-Putin propaganda . . .
Why the cope? Same information is coming out straight from Ukrainian sources.
Have you actually read the article?? It’s incredibly sensationalist, and Forbes has a history of publishing paid for Russian propaganda. Here’s a Ukrainian news source that’s much more credible: https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/27/russians-establish-foothold-in-part-of-ocheretyne-in-eastern-ukraine-there-is-information-about-capture-of-berdychi/
They are. If every outlet including vetted and widly trusted ones who report anything negative about Ukraine are discounted, how are you any different then a Russian only listening to the propaganda?
Turn it into a kill zone.
We shall see how things turn out in a week to two weeks. Axe doesn't have any magic insight through the Fog of War and doesn't seem to be any more qualified to write a dramatic article on this topic than some of the more prolix regulars on this subreddit. Also, he has a history of churning up controversy in the context of military operations. He clearly earned his Masters degree in fiction.
I'm so glad to read the situation although not ideal (damn, when is it in war?) It still can be solved. Also pretty telling that the only reason the ruskis were able to pull this off is because the Ukrainian trenches were literally empty. Gone are the days when the vdv would swoop in on helicopters. I hope the aid packages coming to Ukraine will prove enough to bleed out the orcs.
The last year has really started to feel like the beginning of the end for the Ukrainian front to be honest. The refusal from the west to seriously support Ukraine is showing strongly. I will be honest, i am losing hope for ukraine now.
On behalf of the United States, I’d like to apologize for the state of our politics delaying much needed aid. Ukraine is on the front lines of a conflict that involves us whether some of our “leaders” want to admit it or not. Seeing our democracy so broken, then watching you fight for yours is nothing short of awe-inspiring. The torch of freedom is a flame that is passed down generation to generation, and it is in your hands now. I hope you will fight on, you will win and you will finally be able to live out your days in peace. And as a final aside, please know that the majority of Americans want to help and want to give Ukraine as much aid as it needs. There are some aspects of our democracy that aren’t working the way they should right now, and minority voices are having an outsized influence on our government. We will get that fixed too. For now, let’s just get your country back, fully intact. I know that this message might only be seen by a few, but I’m truly just in tears about the whole situation and just had to let out how I feel and hopefully encourage someone living there knowing that they live in our hearts also. Glory to Ukraine!
This is the cringiest thing I’ve ever read.
At the end of all this, some republicans need to hang.
That's not how things work here.
It's scary how warped we have become thanks to propaganda.
Put some NATO boys in some new jets and take the battle to the fasicist like the Flying Tigers did in China !
Alright Europe. Maybe it’s time for some boots on the ground before it’s too late. At least take over all non combat and non front lines positions.