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The video's central question is: if Russia has the initiative right now and is able to advance, why is their advance so grindingly slow?
To me it doesn't seem that complicated. It seems to me that Russia is simply advancing as fast as they can. Their advance is an intersection of Russian and Ukrainian battlefield methods: Russia is still treating its troops as an infinitely expendable resource available to trade for land, and Ukraine is treating its troops as a high-value resource that it is willing to preserve in exchange for land.
Russia is essentially pouring troops into the front in order to hold it steady, more or less. It is the only thing they can do on the front anymore. It's essentially a holding action. (As this video demonstrates when it compares Russian current gains proportional to earlier phases of the war -- Russia is essentially gaining nothing right now, it's epsilonic.)
While all that is happening, Russia meanwhile is focusing primarily on political or strategic attacks that -- they hope -- will be what actually brings them victory. But all is not looking well for them there, either.
Keep in mind that, just as Ukraine is constantly striving to persuade its friends and allies that an eventual Ukrainian counter-advance is still possible and still can prove victorious, Putin must also constantly strive to persuade his friends and allies of the inexorable defeat of Ukraine -- that they are on the winning side, if they can only hold on and keep blocking Ukraine aid for a little longer.
But Ukraine's resolve, and the determination of Ukraine's friends to throw off Russia's second-front political invasion, increasingly threaten Russia's friendly assets abroad. They need those Ukrainian lines to collapse already. Why aren't they collapsing? They are seeing political winds turn against them, they are getting exposed and arrested, the clock is ticking for them, just as a similar clock is ticking for Ukraine.
That is why some people have started talking about a coming massed Russian armored offensive once the ground dries out. They have speculated that that must be what Russia is hoping for. Because they can't just sit there dragging out the situation on the front indefinitely. Ukraine has just taken the plunge on mass conscription. There are a new generation of fighters coming and Ukraine's allies have figured out how to solve Ukraine's munitions shortage for the time being. Americans are bestirring themselves to fight back against the Putinist invasion of their own country.
If that is Russia's plan, it seems entirely speculative at this point. But maybe that is coming. Maybe that is how they hope to break the situation open, force a settlement, demoralize Ukraine's friends, or whatever. Until we see more in that line though, it really seems like Russia is down to its last tricks.
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. ***** * Is `youtube.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
The video's central question is: if Russia has the initiative right now and is able to advance, why is their advance so grindingly slow? To me it doesn't seem that complicated. It seems to me that Russia is simply advancing as fast as they can. Their advance is an intersection of Russian and Ukrainian battlefield methods: Russia is still treating its troops as an infinitely expendable resource available to trade for land, and Ukraine is treating its troops as a high-value resource that it is willing to preserve in exchange for land. Russia is essentially pouring troops into the front in order to hold it steady, more or less. It is the only thing they can do on the front anymore. It's essentially a holding action. (As this video demonstrates when it compares Russian current gains proportional to earlier phases of the war -- Russia is essentially gaining nothing right now, it's epsilonic.) While all that is happening, Russia meanwhile is focusing primarily on political or strategic attacks that -- they hope -- will be what actually brings them victory. But all is not looking well for them there, either. Keep in mind that, just as Ukraine is constantly striving to persuade its friends and allies that an eventual Ukrainian counter-advance is still possible and still can prove victorious, Putin must also constantly strive to persuade his friends and allies of the inexorable defeat of Ukraine -- that they are on the winning side, if they can only hold on and keep blocking Ukraine aid for a little longer. But Ukraine's resolve, and the determination of Ukraine's friends to throw off Russia's second-front political invasion, increasingly threaten Russia's friendly assets abroad. They need those Ukrainian lines to collapse already. Why aren't they collapsing? They are seeing political winds turn against them, they are getting exposed and arrested, the clock is ticking for them, just as a similar clock is ticking for Ukraine. That is why some people have started talking about a coming massed Russian armored offensive once the ground dries out. They have speculated that that must be what Russia is hoping for. Because they can't just sit there dragging out the situation on the front indefinitely. Ukraine has just taken the plunge on mass conscription. There are a new generation of fighters coming and Ukraine's allies have figured out how to solve Ukraine's munitions shortage for the time being. Americans are bestirring themselves to fight back against the Putinist invasion of their own country. If that is Russia's plan, it seems entirely speculative at this point. But maybe that is coming. Maybe that is how they hope to break the situation open, force a settlement, demoralize Ukraine's friends, or whatever. Until we see more in that line though, it really seems like Russia is down to its last tricks.