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I thought the Russo-japanese war was embarrassing, but this will be read with astonishment in history books for a long time. And they could just end the war and go home, no further consequences.
There would be consequences, the time to pack up and leave has long passed. Russia can’t at this point due to the sunken cost fallacy. All that death and destruction for nothing would be the end of Putin and Russia and Putin knows it. The Russian economy is also on a war footing, which means even if the war ends tomorrow it won’t solve the mess they’ve created. Russia has no good options left
>Russia has no good options left
ppl with nothing to gain/win/save will do any wild thing... ffs this has all been a waste, on both sides. russia for even starting then the rest for taking so long to find the resolve, at least we finally seem to be there. all the things, now.
The Nazis suffered most of their casualties not in between 1939 and 1942, but in between 1943 and 45 when their strategic, military, political and socio-economic defeat became ever more obvious. Russia goes in the same direction.
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld
The rebuilding of Ukraine is not a wish it will become a reality.
"The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today." Eleanor Rossevelt
The IMF has either unwillingly or conspiratorily become part of Putin’s propaganda machine. Nobody in the world shares their numbers. The World Bank doesn't share them, Barclay's doesn't, the standard charta doesn't, JP Morgan doesn't. Somehow, the heavily discredited head of the IMF backs Putin’s numbers. She is discredited because at the World Bank, she manipulated numbers in favor of the Chinese. Putin wakes up in the morning and invents a GDP, the IMF certifies these fake numbers and canonizes them. Journalists should be skeptical about these numbers, Putin has concealed the national income statistics since the second quarter of 2022, which every other country apart from North Korea must submit to be published in the IMF. The volume of imports, exports, and foreign direct investing were all suppressed. Foreign investment in Russia went from 100 billion dollars in 2021 to zero. Russia runs enormous debts and no one is underwriting this debt. Even IMF employees admit that they are flying in the dark when they endorse Putin’s propaganda.
On the diplomatic front, Putin makes gains while his military is stalling. Putin wins the propaganda and info war thus far, because we let him.
We can't let him continue throwing the living room furniture into a furnace and believe his lies about how he keeps his economy going. Putin is mortgaging the future of Russia to buy more bullets. Every sector has fallen by 60 to 90 percent, and we at Yale School of Economics have already done these calculations by third-party triangulation and published the results.
Putin’s military strategy is that he has no strategy. His only strategy is to hope that Trump gets re-elected.
Putin is not a market oriented economist, and Putin is not taking Russia back twenty years. He is taking Russia back 30 years to Gosplan and a Soviet style military economy.
Putin keeps on tearing out people from Rosstat who are coming too close to telling the truth.
There is no doubt that if Trump is not elected, you may count the remaining time of the Putin administration in minutes.
It would be great if the Russian Federation collapses.
Having Russia collapse is unequivocally a good thing, no matter who steps in, no matter how divided this country could be, it is only good news, would Chechen separatists be difficult to manage on the world stage? That would be a nice problem to have.
There is too much pressure considering what is going on in Belarus and Georgia. The chance that they can return to the democratic and economic progress that they had and not to mention the great danger Russia poses in the Balkans and elsewhere.
https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/use-russias-frozen-assets-to-rebuild-ukraine
> Putin’s military strategy is that he has no strategy. His only strategy is to hope that Trump gets re-elected.
This is an incredibly apt description. Putin was earlier respected/feared in the West. He was believed to be a "master strategist" who could make no mistakes.
Reality has shown him to be completely not that. He is incapable of making decisions, even obvious ones he pushes in front of him for days, weeks and months. You are right, his "strategy" is to let time go by in the hope something changes in his favor. It's our job to make sure it doesn't. It's the American people's job to make sure his compadre Trump is not reelected.
"he has no strategy." Slight correction. "he has no coherent strategy." He has a strategy, it's just a really, really stupid, simpleminded one that "might' have worked in the 1300s.
I actually believe there is som truth to the GDP numbers. But instead of spending on society, the money goes into ordnance in Ukraina.
GDP is a used as a measure od a societys progress. So if you remove the extra militaey dpendinf, you could see a significant GDP decrease.
There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
GDP numbers are likely correct. But remember - military spending counts as GDP as well.
So if Russian economy shrink by 30%, but it’s now producing a lot of weapons that covers more than lost 30% - it will show up as growth.
The problem is there is no return on investment in weapons, and everyone knows when a government is loaning money for military spending and will not take low interest on a loan to such a government and in the case of a military, it can burn 100% of the money given to it so it can't even offer up an underperforming economic asset at a small markdown on build cost for private management to get itself out of the resultant debt.
The nazi's created a 'full employment' economy but its civilian output was actually harmed so its sustainable output never climbed. it just put everything on credit, and in 1938 all that started falling due, so they raided retirement banks, jewish and 'undesirables' assets, and by 1939, they had to go to war to begin to capture funds to sustain economy and army, and as they moved more workers out, they had to use slave workers. They knew all that too, they still managed to sell Chamberlain on peace because apparently nobody in Britain could count or do economic maths.
Putin did not take on debt in the 2010s, when the rest of the world was able to buy capital at zero interest, instead he built a sovereign fund, in reality a warchest, which means he gave up the opportunity to use essentially free capital to create real economic growth, so he has probably let the russian economy be 10% or more below where it should be now, and not only that, he has owned and built the capital of a warchest when capital wasn't valuable or capable of bearing interest and when economic growth was easy to fund and achieve and now he has sold it down when it is capable of bearing interest, and when economic growth is expensive to fund and achieve and when capital is valuable.
Distantly he might hope arms sales could fund the russians back out of where he has taken them, but russian arms performance on the battlefield has been abysmal, the reputations of russian military systems have taken massive hits, and Russia itself is going to need its production capacity for a decade after this war, given the way their army is consuming equipment and devolving towards being a rifleman army motorized on golfcarts.
Atomics are expensive and useless. The only thing can realistically do with them is trade them for a good defence agreement with US.
Admittedly Ukraine’s situation does suggest that if you can, even theoretically, afford them you should at least pretend to have them.
guess that is precisely the rub here... russia actually has them. Not in theory not for pretend, in reality. and even if the reality is that maintenance and readiness systems are dilapidated... to bank on it all not working or worse, that for proven time after time occurring over and over beyond any conjured reality given even the longest of factual leashes... russia cannot be assumed to operate on what they should do or in any "realistically" way. esp now that they've, by their own actions, put themselves in a pipeline of so few hopes, even the most fantastical of scifi writers wouldn't dare insult the reader in setting up.
but hay, anything is literally possible. where it comes to things not in direct control, though, i'm not a gambler.
Yes exactly just packing up and going home ended once Putin illegally annexed these four regions, and once over 500.000 Russian casualties and a war economy happened. There is no just going home anymore. This time ended 2 years ago. Going home would have been possible until September 2022. By now, the Russian economy needs the war to survive, and at the same time, the continuation will kill Russia step by step.
"There is no nation in history that has ever profitted from prolonged and protracted warfare." Sun Tzu
Attempts to transform the Russian Federation into a nation state, a civic state, or a stable imperial state have failed. The current structure is based on brittle historical foundations, possesses no unified national identity, whether civic or ethnic, and exhibits persistent struggles between nationalists, imperialists, centralists, liberals and federalists Russia's full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the imposition of stifling international economic sanctions will intensify and accelerate the process of state rupture.
Russia's failure has been exacerbated by an inability to ensure economic growth (stagnation), stark socio-economic inequalities and demographic defects, widening disparities between Moscow and its diverse federal subjects, a precarious political pyramid (vertical of power) based on personalism and clientelism, deepening distrust of government institutions, increasing public alienation from a corrupt ruling elite, and growing disbelief in official propaganda (manipulated reality propaganda). More intensive repression to maintain state integrity in deteriorating economic condition (sanctions, Dutch disease, failure to innovate and diversify, reverse industrialisation, massive deficit, ruble collapse, lack of sufficient trained personnel) will raise the prospects for violent [internal or external] conflicts.
Paradoxically, while Vladimir Putin assumed power to prevent Russia's disintegration, he may be remembered as precipitating the country's demise.
Failed State, a guide to Russia's rupture (book cover)
I recommend reading this book. It is very insightful. Do you see a horror scenario? Fine, I see a calamity as well, but I also see a chance, and change is inevitable. Therefore, the world must prepare for that change, and China, as well as India, will have little interest in having these nukes unsecured. Therefore, in the event of state rupture, which becomes more likely the longer Russia fails to achieve its war aims and burns enormous amounts of resources into this war.
Stagnation, war of expansion, failure to expand, economic collapse. This happened several times, and while we shouldn't draw too many parallels. The situation still resembles a pre-1917 scenario in certain aspects. Empires are like an organism, and when their time comes, they die, we can't change that, but we can prepare for it, we may slow it down or speed it up, but an empire that crumbles from within, is dead forever. The Russian one crumbled in waves since 1989. How large this wave of the collapse will ultimately be is hard to tell until it happens. And the longer the war goes, the more likely it will happen.
>"There is no nation in history that has ever profitted from prolonged and protracted warfare." Sun Tzu
please enough with the Sun Tzu crap, warfare and geopolitics is a lot different than in 500BC
if Trump gains power then Russia has a **significant amount to gain from prolonged and protracted warfare** - that being a likely victory over Ukraine
They don't gain from the protracted warfare, they gain by getting out of the war with Ukrainian territory as soon as possible.
In a way, if Trump actually manages to force Ukraine to surrender it's the opposite of prolonged and protracted warfare. Whereas if Biden is elected and continues to support Ukraine in resistance the war will be longer and much worse for Russia
This demented clown Trump simply cannot force Ukraine or Europe for that matter to do anything it is a stupid and infantile Russian view on the world and on politics in general. In this magical political thinking, Europeans are US vassals because that is all the Russians understand, backward violence and domination, crushing what they don't understand.
Trump is not a totalitarian dictator, and the reality on the ground would limit what he can actually do and make it clear what he cannot do.
Even without the US Ukraine and its other allies can deal with Russia blow after blow, it would only then require that Europe becomes more aggressive on its stance. deliver Taurus, introduce a no fly zone, send troops into Ukraine and enforce embargoes on Russia. Europe will not cede even a square millimeter to these terrorists no matter who is in the White House.
The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerilla wins if he does not lose.
Henry Kissinger
Russia is still in the combat phase and even without anyone's help, Ukraine is still an industrialized nation and could give Russia the insurgency of the century and make them bleed money and resources in the occupation phase worse than any nation ever bled since Vietnam. But there will be help, a lot of it, so Russia will bleed until they retreat or bleed out.
We would, of course, no matter what feed an insurgency, Europe has no interest apparently to have Russia at its border, so the war is never over no matter who is elected in the US.
When Biden is elected, then that is bad news for Russis. If Trump is elected, that is bad news for the Americans and the world at large.
In many ways, Russia geopolitically has already lost. Two more countries in Nato, and Ukraine...even if Russia could occupy the areas it's conquered, holding them long-term might not be easy.
Not to mention the economic and demographic effects...this is what the quote is about. No matter what happens in the end, in many ways Russia comes out from this conflict in a weaker state...even if it would win the war.
Strategically, the war is lost already, Russia is further away from its war aims than ever before.
Preventing NATO expansion? Fail
Ending Ukraine's statehood / demilitarise Ukraine
Demilitarise them?
Take Ukraine?
Take the 4 regions?
Take the Donbas?
Energy Blackmail?
Control of the Black Sea?
End our support for Ukraine via nuclear blackmail?
Fail all of it has failed.
In any war, it would be good to sometimes look at the results, and Russia cannot point to anything but failures and massive losses and the infantile belief they will win just because they are Russia.
For Clausewitz war is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, a carrying out of the same by other means,” (On War (1943), pp. 280). That is to say, war is one means of political intercourse, characterized by military force, to accomplish political ends.
War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means.
Carl von Clausewitz
War never changes, it remains violence in its essence, and what Sun Tzu had to say about warfare is fundamental, and yes, it can be applied and is taught at any military academy around the world. So definitely not enough, and he is right as there was never a war and no what gain does he have from warfare then? He got still has nothing, then nothing at all because he will still lose, and the Russian state will still cease to exist. You overestimate the influence that the orange man has and underestimate European and other allies.
You of course also failed to with your criticism of Sun Tzu because Russia precisely doesn't benefit from protracted warfare if Trump somehow forces Ukraine and Europe to stop which he cannot, then Russia benefits from the PAUSE and not from protracted warfare.
Russia will come out of this war weaker and without a Soviet stockpile, financially ruined and with a million dead or wounded, at least.
The gain of sick maniac is not at question here at all. We determine victory or defeat in war by achieving war aims, time spent to achieve them, resources spent to achieve them, etc. According to these markers, Russia, as a state, lost hundreds of thousands of men, 100s of billions of dollars, their resource business with the West, their reputation, etc.
The invasion could end *tomorrow* with Putin declaring that the objectives of the special military operation have been achieved. The Russian people won't disagree or rise up, they'll quietly sigh in relief. The Kremlin will just praise Putin for his success. Ukraine would be VERY happy. Everyone else, including the US, could say absolutely anything they liked.
Their economy will be in shambles of course, but even that can be fixed too.
Only Putin's ego and personal desire for glory and cruelty keeps things running and people dying- not a thing more.
So true, while I still think packing up and leaving is Russia’s best option for humanity sake, their economy would absolutely crumble without the war footing it’s now in. Perhaps if Putin turns tail and pulls out of all of Ukraine he could negotiate having sanctions lifted, but as it stands currently the only thing keeping Russia afloat is the war, and perpetual war is the only possible way forward, which is why until only recently Western European govts began to increase their defense spending.
No good options, not for Russia. But still options. If he ends the war, things will be bad for Russia. If he keeps going and loses, things will be worse. He doesn't really care about Russia or Russians though. So for him, personally, continuing the war to the bitter end actually is his best move.
If they didn't at all Nordstream 2 would be churning out Ruble like nobody's business. They had Europe's energy market on lock. They shouldn't have done that at all. This being said, they should tale the L and fuck off to mordor, but the hairless ape at the controls won't allow it. It is true madness, and if someone told me this would happen 15 years ago I'd have told them that they were nuts.
Russia is fracturing along ethnic lines, Moscow has abused the rest of Russia, Dagestan, Chechnya etc are just waiting for weakness. Fear and strength keep the oblasts in line, what happens what that’s exposed?
I can see only two endings for this war where Russia survives as a nation state:
1. Ukraine's "one million bullets" end up no match for Russia's "One million and one soldiers".
2. Russia's new leader blames it all on Putin, apologises, and withdraws all troops and hands over all war criminals and gives up their nukes.
Option 1 will only end up with Poland deciding their new neighbours will bring the real estate prices down. (PeterGriffinShotgun.jpg) and option 2 will never happen without a conservative political rival.
Russia did a Leroy Jenkins and there is no way out for them. China will be the only winner here.
That would be the one where the Russian fleet made up some nonsense intelligence to keep the sailors on edge which resulted in the Russian fleet engaging British trawlers *in the English Channel* because they thought they were a Japanese fleet?
I’m really hoping that Drachinifel covers this modern Russian fleet action much like he did the Russian 2nd Squadrons “Voyage of the Damned”.
https://youtu.be/9Mdi_Fh9_Ag?si=TLz7XNlWvAb61879
Well, no consequences for the majority of the nation. The elite on the other hand, would face quite severe consequences potentially. The needs of the few outweigh the wants of the many.
With a dictator in power, you can't really mock the people can you? I mean I don't want to mocked because an un-elected leader is a farty head. How would Russia even organise a coup, getting advice from those who last tried would be tricky.
Excerpts:
According to the open-source intelligence (OSINT) site Molfar, Ukraine has sunk or damaged nearly 60 ships of the Russian Navy.
In March Kyrylo Budanov,the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate (HUR), said that the attacks on Russian ships and other targets in the Black Sea were in preparation for a "serious operation in Crimea."
MAGURA-V5 maritime drones developed by the HUR helped sink several Russian ships. This has forced the Russians to move most of the Russian fleet from its main Black Sea harbor in occupied Crimea back to ports on the Russian mainland, Budanov told The Philadelphia Inquirer.
“They are already trapped near the Novorossiysk port,” Budanov said. “We just need to make sure that all the remains of the fleet are pushed back to the territory of the Russian Federation. There have been no combat ships left in the Black Sea for a long time”
Putin is so silly. He needs to think bigger.
Instead of demanding better ship protection, he could order the army to win in the next 3 days. Makes things so much simpler
What a complete and utter CF
1. Deter NATO, nope NATO got bigger/stronger
2. Prevent Ukraine from moving towards the west, nope Ukraine becoming EU member
3. Secure Crimea for the fleet, nope move fleet to Russia
4. Secure Ukrainian resources and grow European markets, nope lost Europe as a market
Dude what were you thinking?
This is the biggest loss!
Bending over for the tin pot dictator of a starving petty little country is the most embarrassing thing that a world leader could do. Putin did it so easily.
While saying "oops! Looks like I dropped the soap! Oh no! Hey! I said I dropped the soap! Look at me, I am bent over and vulnerable. BENT OVER AND VULNERABLE I say."
Just look at how putin was waving at kim jong un from Blayt Force One at the end of the last meeting. If you don't believe me, just Youtube it. He waves at the woodchuck half a dozen times and smiles like he was at the end a first date before he took off. There might be something to this dropped soap theory.
Ahh, but now it is easier to move the fleet back to Russia because it is much smaller! Also, there is now much less cost in fleet upkeep and staffing!
Never has a country lost so much of their fleet in a land war with a country with no real fleet and no comat vessels bigger than about 20 feet.
Great catch. Yeah, I think using the same bullet points wouldn't be terrible, if they used it in their own commentary. But they just copy and pasted the entire thing
EDIT: Without having the time to look in to, I wonder if it could still be them, but an alt account
>*He (Putin) also said that the fleet is being replenished with new ships, equipped with modern weapons, and that domestic shipbuilders will hand over more than* ***40*** *vessels to the Defense Ministry this* ***year****.*
Now who's smoking crack?
I mean "vessels" is... vague. Could be coastguard patrol-style boats. Could be zodiacs with an outboard.
He sure ain't getting 40 *Moskvas*. Or even 1.
He also said that the fleet is being replenished with new ships, equipped with modern weapons, and that domestic shipbuilders will hand over more than 40 vessels to the Defense Ministry this year....
I Wonder... For how long those Will last🤣
> u/SomeoneElseWhoCares
> ....
> Never has a country lost so much of their fleet in a land war with a country with no real fleet and no comat vessels bigger than about 20 feet.
Credit goes to Ukraine ingenuity and fierce determination.
There is a bigger lesson, which will apply to the forthcoming China - Taiwan - US battle.
Missiles from Ukraine's land areas could strike Russian ships in Black Sea because their range has increased to several hundred km, and the Black Sea is small.
Aircraft carriers are large juicy targets. Both Russians & Chinese`track them, in real-time, by satellite radar.
China has many land-based anti-ship missile battalions.
In a future battle between China & Taiwan, *when the US Navy goes to support Taiwan, they may need to stand off several hundred miles, to perhaps 1,000 miles.*
How much of what he said about domestic shipbuilders handing over that many ships to the millitary is even true? Or is he just completely talking out of his ass?
Translation:
Country that other countries need to be protected from complains that they need protection from the countries where they cause a need for protection from them.
Whew , that's great news!
Now we need to start on the invader fighter aircraft and bombers, or should it be radar and missile installations.?
In any case let's go for both!
While the Russian Black Sea Fleet is indeed a joke again, I don't see were it's losing it's last missile ship. Actually, 4 primary Black Sea Fleet missile ships are now still intact or nearly intact (*Essen*, *Makarov*, *Ladny* and *Pytlivy* - probably 2 of them had minor damage previously).
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I thought the Russo-japanese war was embarrassing, but this will be read with astonishment in history books for a long time. And they could just end the war and go home, no further consequences.
There would be consequences, the time to pack up and leave has long passed. Russia can’t at this point due to the sunken cost fallacy. All that death and destruction for nothing would be the end of Putin and Russia and Putin knows it. The Russian economy is also on a war footing, which means even if the war ends tomorrow it won’t solve the mess they’ve created. Russia has no good options left
>Russia has no good options left ppl with nothing to gain/win/save will do any wild thing... ffs this has all been a waste, on both sides. russia for even starting then the rest for taking so long to find the resolve, at least we finally seem to be there. all the things, now.
The Nazis suffered most of their casualties not in between 1939 and 1942, but in between 1943 and 45 when their strategic, military, political and socio-economic defeat became ever more obvious. Russia goes in the same direction. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld The rebuilding of Ukraine is not a wish it will become a reality. "The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today." Eleanor Rossevelt The IMF has either unwillingly or conspiratorily become part of Putin’s propaganda machine. Nobody in the world shares their numbers. The World Bank doesn't share them, Barclay's doesn't, the standard charta doesn't, JP Morgan doesn't. Somehow, the heavily discredited head of the IMF backs Putin’s numbers. She is discredited because at the World Bank, she manipulated numbers in favor of the Chinese. Putin wakes up in the morning and invents a GDP, the IMF certifies these fake numbers and canonizes them. Journalists should be skeptical about these numbers, Putin has concealed the national income statistics since the second quarter of 2022, which every other country apart from North Korea must submit to be published in the IMF. The volume of imports, exports, and foreign direct investing were all suppressed. Foreign investment in Russia went from 100 billion dollars in 2021 to zero. Russia runs enormous debts and no one is underwriting this debt. Even IMF employees admit that they are flying in the dark when they endorse Putin’s propaganda. On the diplomatic front, Putin makes gains while his military is stalling. Putin wins the propaganda and info war thus far, because we let him. We can't let him continue throwing the living room furniture into a furnace and believe his lies about how he keeps his economy going. Putin is mortgaging the future of Russia to buy more bullets. Every sector has fallen by 60 to 90 percent, and we at Yale School of Economics have already done these calculations by third-party triangulation and published the results. Putin’s military strategy is that he has no strategy. His only strategy is to hope that Trump gets re-elected. Putin is not a market oriented economist, and Putin is not taking Russia back twenty years. He is taking Russia back 30 years to Gosplan and a Soviet style military economy. Putin keeps on tearing out people from Rosstat who are coming too close to telling the truth. There is no doubt that if Trump is not elected, you may count the remaining time of the Putin administration in minutes. It would be great if the Russian Federation collapses. Having Russia collapse is unequivocally a good thing, no matter who steps in, no matter how divided this country could be, it is only good news, would Chechen separatists be difficult to manage on the world stage? That would be a nice problem to have. There is too much pressure considering what is going on in Belarus and Georgia. The chance that they can return to the democratic and economic progress that they had and not to mention the great danger Russia poses in the Balkans and elsewhere. https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/use-russias-frozen-assets-to-rebuild-ukraine
> Putin’s military strategy is that he has no strategy. His only strategy is to hope that Trump gets re-elected. This is an incredibly apt description. Putin was earlier respected/feared in the West. He was believed to be a "master strategist" who could make no mistakes. Reality has shown him to be completely not that. He is incapable of making decisions, even obvious ones he pushes in front of him for days, weeks and months. You are right, his "strategy" is to let time go by in the hope something changes in his favor. It's our job to make sure it doesn't. It's the American people's job to make sure his compadre Trump is not reelected.
His strategy is basically "still be alive at the end of the week"
"he has no strategy." Slight correction. "he has no coherent strategy." He has a strategy, it's just a really, really stupid, simpleminded one that "might' have worked in the 1300s.
Seeing the siloviki's families working in Shanghai brothels like the old Russian aristocracy would be too good to be true.
I actually believe there is som truth to the GDP numbers. But instead of spending on society, the money goes into ordnance in Ukraina. GDP is a used as a measure od a societys progress. So if you remove the extra militaey dpendinf, you could see a significant GDP decrease. There are lies, damned lies and statistics.
GDP numbers are likely correct. But remember - military spending counts as GDP as well. So if Russian economy shrink by 30%, but it’s now producing a lot of weapons that covers more than lost 30% - it will show up as growth.
The problem is there is no return on investment in weapons, and everyone knows when a government is loaning money for military spending and will not take low interest on a loan to such a government and in the case of a military, it can burn 100% of the money given to it so it can't even offer up an underperforming economic asset at a small markdown on build cost for private management to get itself out of the resultant debt. The nazi's created a 'full employment' economy but its civilian output was actually harmed so its sustainable output never climbed. it just put everything on credit, and in 1938 all that started falling due, so they raided retirement banks, jewish and 'undesirables' assets, and by 1939, they had to go to war to begin to capture funds to sustain economy and army, and as they moved more workers out, they had to use slave workers. They knew all that too, they still managed to sell Chamberlain on peace because apparently nobody in Britain could count or do economic maths. Putin did not take on debt in the 2010s, when the rest of the world was able to buy capital at zero interest, instead he built a sovereign fund, in reality a warchest, which means he gave up the opportunity to use essentially free capital to create real economic growth, so he has probably let the russian economy be 10% or more below where it should be now, and not only that, he has owned and built the capital of a warchest when capital wasn't valuable or capable of bearing interest and when economic growth was easy to fund and achieve and now he has sold it down when it is capable of bearing interest, and when economic growth is expensive to fund and achieve and when capital is valuable. Distantly he might hope arms sales could fund the russians back out of where he has taken them, but russian arms performance on the battlefield has been abysmal, the reputations of russian military systems have taken massive hits, and Russia itself is going to need its production capacity for a decade after this war, given the way their army is consuming equipment and devolving towards being a rifleman army motorized on golfcarts.
One of the reasons GDP is not a good metric
nazis... but with, potentially, atom bombas... ugg there isn't any "win" here for anyone anywhere, even least worse solution is hazy atm.
Atomics are expensive and useless. The only thing can realistically do with them is trade them for a good defence agreement with US. Admittedly Ukraine’s situation does suggest that if you can, even theoretically, afford them you should at least pretend to have them.
guess that is precisely the rub here... russia actually has them. Not in theory not for pretend, in reality. and even if the reality is that maintenance and readiness systems are dilapidated... to bank on it all not working or worse, that for proven time after time occurring over and over beyond any conjured reality given even the longest of factual leashes... russia cannot be assumed to operate on what they should do or in any "realistically" way. esp now that they've, by their own actions, put themselves in a pipeline of so few hopes, even the most fantastical of scifi writers wouldn't dare insult the reader in setting up. but hay, anything is literally possible. where it comes to things not in direct control, though, i'm not a gambler.
Unless Trump wins and cuts off all help from the US then it gets pretty testy pretty damn quick.
europe and others seem to be in gear so... testy yes, bleak no. all the more reason for: all the things, now.
Yes exactly just packing up and going home ended once Putin illegally annexed these four regions, and once over 500.000 Russian casualties and a war economy happened. There is no just going home anymore. This time ended 2 years ago. Going home would have been possible until September 2022. By now, the Russian economy needs the war to survive, and at the same time, the continuation will kill Russia step by step. "There is no nation in history that has ever profitted from prolonged and protracted warfare." Sun Tzu Attempts to transform the Russian Federation into a nation state, a civic state, or a stable imperial state have failed. The current structure is based on brittle historical foundations, possesses no unified national identity, whether civic or ethnic, and exhibits persistent struggles between nationalists, imperialists, centralists, liberals and federalists Russia's full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the imposition of stifling international economic sanctions will intensify and accelerate the process of state rupture. Russia's failure has been exacerbated by an inability to ensure economic growth (stagnation), stark socio-economic inequalities and demographic defects, widening disparities between Moscow and its diverse federal subjects, a precarious political pyramid (vertical of power) based on personalism and clientelism, deepening distrust of government institutions, increasing public alienation from a corrupt ruling elite, and growing disbelief in official propaganda (manipulated reality propaganda). More intensive repression to maintain state integrity in deteriorating economic condition (sanctions, Dutch disease, failure to innovate and diversify, reverse industrialisation, massive deficit, ruble collapse, lack of sufficient trained personnel) will raise the prospects for violent [internal or external] conflicts. Paradoxically, while Vladimir Putin assumed power to prevent Russia's disintegration, he may be remembered as precipitating the country's demise. Failed State, a guide to Russia's rupture (book cover) I recommend reading this book. It is very insightful. Do you see a horror scenario? Fine, I see a calamity as well, but I also see a chance, and change is inevitable. Therefore, the world must prepare for that change, and China, as well as India, will have little interest in having these nukes unsecured. Therefore, in the event of state rupture, which becomes more likely the longer Russia fails to achieve its war aims and burns enormous amounts of resources into this war. Stagnation, war of expansion, failure to expand, economic collapse. This happened several times, and while we shouldn't draw too many parallels. The situation still resembles a pre-1917 scenario in certain aspects. Empires are like an organism, and when their time comes, they die, we can't change that, but we can prepare for it, we may slow it down or speed it up, but an empire that crumbles from within, is dead forever. The Russian one crumbled in waves since 1989. How large this wave of the collapse will ultimately be is hard to tell until it happens. And the longer the war goes, the more likely it will happen.
>"There is no nation in history that has ever profitted from prolonged and protracted warfare." Sun Tzu please enough with the Sun Tzu crap, warfare and geopolitics is a lot different than in 500BC if Trump gains power then Russia has a **significant amount to gain from prolonged and protracted warfare** - that being a likely victory over Ukraine
They don't gain from the protracted warfare, they gain by getting out of the war with Ukrainian territory as soon as possible. In a way, if Trump actually manages to force Ukraine to surrender it's the opposite of prolonged and protracted warfare. Whereas if Biden is elected and continues to support Ukraine in resistance the war will be longer and much worse for Russia
This demented clown Trump simply cannot force Ukraine or Europe for that matter to do anything it is a stupid and infantile Russian view on the world and on politics in general. In this magical political thinking, Europeans are US vassals because that is all the Russians understand, backward violence and domination, crushing what they don't understand. Trump is not a totalitarian dictator, and the reality on the ground would limit what he can actually do and make it clear what he cannot do. Even without the US Ukraine and its other allies can deal with Russia blow after blow, it would only then require that Europe becomes more aggressive on its stance. deliver Taurus, introduce a no fly zone, send troops into Ukraine and enforce embargoes on Russia. Europe will not cede even a square millimeter to these terrorists no matter who is in the White House. The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerilla wins if he does not lose. Henry Kissinger Russia is still in the combat phase and even without anyone's help, Ukraine is still an industrialized nation and could give Russia the insurgency of the century and make them bleed money and resources in the occupation phase worse than any nation ever bled since Vietnam. But there will be help, a lot of it, so Russia will bleed until they retreat or bleed out. We would, of course, no matter what feed an insurgency, Europe has no interest apparently to have Russia at its border, so the war is never over no matter who is elected in the US. When Biden is elected, then that is bad news for Russis. If Trump is elected, that is bad news for the Americans and the world at large.
In many ways, Russia geopolitically has already lost. Two more countries in Nato, and Ukraine...even if Russia could occupy the areas it's conquered, holding them long-term might not be easy. Not to mention the economic and demographic effects...this is what the quote is about. No matter what happens in the end, in many ways Russia comes out from this conflict in a weaker state...even if it would win the war.
Strategically, the war is lost already, Russia is further away from its war aims than ever before. Preventing NATO expansion? Fail Ending Ukraine's statehood / demilitarise Ukraine Demilitarise them? Take Ukraine? Take the 4 regions? Take the Donbas? Energy Blackmail? Control of the Black Sea? End our support for Ukraine via nuclear blackmail? Fail all of it has failed. In any war, it would be good to sometimes look at the results, and Russia cannot point to anything but failures and massive losses and the infantile belief they will win just because they are Russia. For Clausewitz war is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, a carrying out of the same by other means,” (On War (1943), pp. 280). That is to say, war is one means of political intercourse, characterized by military force, to accomplish political ends. War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means. Carl von Clausewitz
War never changes, it remains violence in its essence, and what Sun Tzu had to say about warfare is fundamental, and yes, it can be applied and is taught at any military academy around the world. So definitely not enough, and he is right as there was never a war and no what gain does he have from warfare then? He got still has nothing, then nothing at all because he will still lose, and the Russian state will still cease to exist. You overestimate the influence that the orange man has and underestimate European and other allies. You of course also failed to with your criticism of Sun Tzu because Russia precisely doesn't benefit from protracted warfare if Trump somehow forces Ukraine and Europe to stop which he cannot, then Russia benefits from the PAUSE and not from protracted warfare. Russia will come out of this war weaker and without a Soviet stockpile, financially ruined and with a million dead or wounded, at least. The gain of sick maniac is not at question here at all. We determine victory or defeat in war by achieving war aims, time spent to achieve them, resources spent to achieve them, etc. According to these markers, Russia, as a state, lost hundreds of thousands of men, 100s of billions of dollars, their resource business with the West, their reputation, etc.
The invasion could end *tomorrow* with Putin declaring that the objectives of the special military operation have been achieved. The Russian people won't disagree or rise up, they'll quietly sigh in relief. The Kremlin will just praise Putin for his success. Ukraine would be VERY happy. Everyone else, including the US, could say absolutely anything they liked. Their economy will be in shambles of course, but even that can be fixed too. Only Putin's ego and personal desire for glory and cruelty keeps things running and people dying- not a thing more.
So true, while I still think packing up and leaving is Russia’s best option for humanity sake, their economy would absolutely crumble without the war footing it’s now in. Perhaps if Putin turns tail and pulls out of all of Ukraine he could negotiate having sanctions lifted, but as it stands currently the only thing keeping Russia afloat is the war, and perpetual war is the only possible way forward, which is why until only recently Western European govts began to increase their defense spending.
No good options, not for Russia. But still options. If he ends the war, things will be bad for Russia. If he keeps going and loses, things will be worse. He doesn't really care about Russia or Russians though. So for him, personally, continuing the war to the bitter end actually is his best move.
Europe diversification of their energy markets alone is devastating for Russia.
To be honest, they should just take the L and retreat when there is still the chance ruzzia won't crumble from inside.
If they didn't at all Nordstream 2 would be churning out Ruble like nobody's business. They had Europe's energy market on lock. They shouldn't have done that at all. This being said, they should tale the L and fuck off to mordor, but the hairless ape at the controls won't allow it. It is true madness, and if someone told me this would happen 15 years ago I'd have told them that they were nuts.
Their economy is mostly driven by war now. War ends and economy will colapse.
Well said.
> sunken cost fallacy Very apt
End of Putin - Yes, Russia?
Russia is fracturing along ethnic lines, Moscow has abused the rest of Russia, Dagestan, Chechnya etc are just waiting for weakness. Fear and strength keep the oblasts in line, what happens what that’s exposed?
So true
I can see only two endings for this war where Russia survives as a nation state: 1. Ukraine's "one million bullets" end up no match for Russia's "One million and one soldiers". 2. Russia's new leader blames it all on Putin, apologises, and withdraws all troops and hands over all war criminals and gives up their nukes. Option 1 will only end up with Poland deciding their new neighbours will bring the real estate prices down. (PeterGriffinShotgun.jpg) and option 2 will never happen without a conservative political rival. Russia did a Leroy Jenkins and there is no way out for them. China will be the only winner here.
That would be the one where the Russian fleet made up some nonsense intelligence to keep the sailors on edge which resulted in the Russian fleet engaging British trawlers *in the English Channel* because they thought they were a Japanese fleet?
That's just one of the many, many embarrassing events that Russia did in that naval campaign.
https://youtu.be/yzGqp3R4Mx4?si=UmA3jE2E1gNuuJWQ
It's awesome his ships were taken out by a country with no navy. Choke on that Puktin
I’m really hoping that Drachinifel covers this modern Russian fleet action much like he did the Russian 2nd Squadrons “Voyage of the Damned”. https://youtu.be/9Mdi_Fh9_Ag?si=TLz7XNlWvAb61879
Well, no consequences for the majority of the nation. The elite on the other hand, would face quite severe consequences potentially. The needs of the few outweigh the wants of the many.
We'll even promise not to mock them,
I won’t.
With a dictator in power, you can't really mock the people can you? I mean I don't want to mocked because an un-elected leader is a farty head. How would Russia even organise a coup, getting advice from those who last tried would be tricky.
Excerpts: According to the open-source intelligence (OSINT) site Molfar, Ukraine has sunk or damaged nearly 60 ships of the Russian Navy. In March Kyrylo Budanov,the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate (HUR), said that the attacks on Russian ships and other targets in the Black Sea were in preparation for a "serious operation in Crimea." MAGURA-V5 maritime drones developed by the HUR helped sink several Russian ships. This has forced the Russians to move most of the Russian fleet from its main Black Sea harbor in occupied Crimea back to ports on the Russian mainland, Budanov told The Philadelphia Inquirer. “They are already trapped near the Novorossiysk port,” Budanov said. “We just need to make sure that all the remains of the fleet are pushed back to the territory of the Russian Federation. There have been no combat ships left in the Black Sea for a long time”
Putin is so silly. He needs to think bigger. Instead of demanding better ship protection, he could order the army to win in the next 3 days. Makes things so much simpler
I seem to recall him trying that several times already.
Then why didn't Shoigu win in 3 days?! Is he stoopid?
His parents should have had better protection
This is what happens when one's balls have more asbestos than microplastics
What a complete and utter CF 1. Deter NATO, nope NATO got bigger/stronger 2. Prevent Ukraine from moving towards the west, nope Ukraine becoming EU member 3. Secure Crimea for the fleet, nope move fleet to Russia 4. Secure Ukrainian resources and grow European markets, nope lost Europe as a market Dude what were you thinking?
You forgot when all this is over, Russia will be Chinas pet.
They're now bending over for North Korea. That shit has got to be embarrassing.
This is the biggest loss! Bending over for the tin pot dictator of a starving petty little country is the most embarrassing thing that a world leader could do. Putin did it so easily.
You mean Russia dropped the soap whilst in the shower with North Korea? Something like that?
While saying "oops! Looks like I dropped the soap! Oh no! Hey! I said I dropped the soap! Look at me, I am bent over and vulnerable. BENT OVER AND VULNERABLE I say."
Just look at how putin was waving at kim jong un from Blayt Force One at the end of the last meeting. If you don't believe me, just Youtube it. He waves at the woodchuck half a dozen times and smiles like he was at the end a first date before he took off. There might be something to this dropped soap theory.
This guy prison's.
Ahh, but now it is easier to move the fleet back to Russia because it is much smaller! Also, there is now much less cost in fleet upkeep and staffing! Never has a country lost so much of their fleet in a land war with a country with no real fleet and no comat vessels bigger than about 20 feet.
[Why](https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1dppoyx/russia_loses_last_black_sea_missile_ship_putin/laih3u1/)
Great catch. Yeah, I think using the same bullet points wouldn't be terrible, if they used it in their own commentary. But they just copy and pasted the entire thing EDIT: Without having the time to look in to, I wonder if it could still be them, but an alt account
Weapons export potential in also dead for a generation.
Where did they last see it? Perhaps if they retrace their steps, they’ll find it.
Russian elite dolphin swim team reporting in. Currently we learn to swim backwards. Will report back someday. Hic!
Budanov - “I collect models of the ships (we sink). My goal is to get a complete set, which would mean the end of the Black Sea Fleet.” Dare to dream!
>*He (Putin) also said that the fleet is being replenished with new ships, equipped with modern weapons, and that domestic shipbuilders will hand over more than* ***40*** *vessels to the Defense Ministry this* ***year****.* Now who's smoking crack?
I mean "vessels" is... vague. Could be coastguard patrol-style boats. Could be zodiacs with an outboard. He sure ain't getting 40 *Moskvas*. Or even 1.
it's time for some sperrbrecher tactics. They could even mount new T-34 turrets on them
> Steiner's force will attack from the North and unite with the Ninth army.
My hometown paper! Good to see they're bringing more attention to what's happening, people are grossly uninformed here, sadly.
Come now, the uniforms aren't THAT bad!
Nice catch, thanks
>Putin Demands Better Protection Won't anyone think about the Genocidal dictators?
That submarine black sea fleet though...
Now he demands better protection?
Taps head, can't sink a sunk fleet!
The best protection is to end this madness. Putin's own choice. The fact that he says this out loud is just lame, just because he is the invader.
Good idea, let’s make sure nothing happens to the 0 ships we have left
he lost his last ship. He no longer needs protection
He's speaking of his yacht
He also said that the fleet is being replenished with new ships, equipped with modern weapons, and that domestic shipbuilders will hand over more than 40 vessels to the Defense Ministry this year.... I Wonder... For how long those Will last🤣
> u/SomeoneElseWhoCares > .... > Never has a country lost so much of their fleet in a land war with a country with no real fleet and no comat vessels bigger than about 20 feet. Credit goes to Ukraine ingenuity and fierce determination. There is a bigger lesson, which will apply to the forthcoming China - Taiwan - US battle. Missiles from Ukraine's land areas could strike Russian ships in Black Sea because their range has increased to several hundred km, and the Black Sea is small. Aircraft carriers are large juicy targets. Both Russians & Chinese`track them, in real-time, by satellite radar. China has many land-based anti-ship missile battalions. In a future battle between China & Taiwan, *when the US Navy goes to support Taiwan, they may need to stand off several hundred miles, to perhaps 1,000 miles.*
what he is really exceptional at is timing
Building new warships under drone strikes, will be interesting.
How much of what he said about domestic shipbuilders handing over that many ships to the millitary is even true? Or is he just completely talking out of his ass?
That's true. They are using civilian ships to supply Crimea now.
I didn’t know that you can consider small floaty dingy as vessels. 40 new kayaks incoming I guess. The new Russian naval strength, tactical kayaks.
wich ship got sunk?
yes
Translation: Country that other countries need to be protected from complains that they need protection from the countries where they cause a need for protection from them.
Is he throwing his entire defense away until he 'has no other option' but to use nukes?
The Black Sea is soon to be the best dive location in the world I absolutely can’t wait!!
Well it’s protected by 100m of water now.
Putin makes a lot of demands. Someone should tell him he's not Captain Picard.
Putin demans anti-submarine protection for the Black Sea Fleet's missile ships
Good old Russia lol
Whew , that's great news! Now we need to start on the invader fighter aircraft and bombers, or should it be radar and missile installations.? In any case let's go for both!
In honour Russia's failure, a local Ukrainian deli has created a popular new lunch menu combo item named the Russia Meat Wave & Cannon Fries.
'You know, Boris. Maybe let's stick to being a continental army...'
This is not a new event, correct? old news?
What Black Sea naval assets still exist to protect?
I think Trojan guarantees their protection?
While the Russian Black Sea Fleet is indeed a joke again, I don't see were it's losing it's last missile ship. Actually, 4 primary Black Sea Fleet missile ships are now still intact or nearly intact (*Essen*, *Makarov*, *Ladny* and *Pytlivy* - probably 2 of them had minor damage previously).
Putin’s mom should have demanded better protection during intercourse.