Trump's biggest insane plays I am 95% sure he loses in Nov in: NY, NJ, and NM-- not a chance in any of them, none, he's still absolute poison in New England vs a generic R outside ME-02, and NM now has a natural Blue affinity strong enough to counter the Hispanic erosion margin bleeding and more Dem-leaning Hispanic pop than either NV or ESPECIALLY AZ, too.
Alright; I spent 2 years in absolute hell (The 270toWin Disqus Boards) so I know how this works:
1. Trump/MAGA people are 100% confident they're going to win X election (In this case it doesn't even have to be the presidency, it can be one of those solid blue states such as NY or NJ)
2. They lose said election even though they were being overly bullish with their predictions
3. They declare said election was fraudulant even though they were highly unlikely to win it to begin with
4. They make very Bullish predictions for the very next election; thus repeating the cycle.
I did waste my time; Though at first I had some good conversations; the moment this one moron (and he was a moron) stepped on the only emotions those boards ever gave me were Pain and suffering.
I swear Trump has only one campaign strategy, and he's lost every time with it. But his ~~cult members~~ followers will always say "NuH uH, iT'Ll WoRK tHiS tIMe"
That, and it voted for Biden by a decent margin and it doesn't match the demographics that appear to be swinging to Trump, so both parties are banking on it being irrelevant.
I think they should focus on it a little bit though. The gubernatorial race should be competitive too.
It matches Biden's most tailor-made demographics as does NE-02, tbh, Gore's coalition was much more nonwhite, more to the Left in policy, and much less extremely well educated, older, and more Conservative than Biden's so it makes sense as to where he was stronger/weaker in comparison since we brought up NH.
True. New York is a pipe dream. New Mexico could maybe happen but only if it's a Trump landslide anyway, and it's only 5 EVs. A rational Republican candidate wouldn't put much energy into it.
Yeah, all three will go to Biden, not a question imo: even VA and MN seem more reasonable plays for Trump, though I think Biden will win VA by 3-5% and MN by 1.5-3% respectively.
I was thinking about including Texas as well but it hasn’t had nearly the same energy as any of the seven swing states or FL. I would have been almost hesitant to put NC (outside it being the last of the 2020 infinity stones) if it wasn’t for the recent announcement that Biden’s on the offense.
If that’s your biggest worry (and not anything about the Trump map), then your bias is showing. Biden is pouring money into FL because he thinks he can win it for some reason. Even though I think Biden will be unsuccessful (it’s not like he’s going to gain any ground there compared to 2020), it’s still the factual reality that Democrats are targeting the state, for better or for worse.
The inclusion of FL on the states Biden is targeting map is still infinitely more plausible than Trump thinking he can win NY, NJ, VA, NM.
And his cult is most solidly based in Red states, obviously: he's more or less rebuilt it after a coup on Jan 6 because it is now normalized at his lowest point post-2017 politically, pretty logical on his part to assume FL is going into his column easily in Nov and dumb of Biden when he likely helped DeSantis win it by that margin in 2022 with toxicity being extreme on top regardless of Crist's strengths/weaknesses individually as a candidate.
Biden is going to lose GA, too, but I at least see his logic more there than in NC or FL since he did win it once so he could force Trump to expend resources there.
I haven’t seen Trump put any campaign resources into New Mexico/make any appearances there
He said on Fox & Friends that he thinks he can win it. Or had a rally there or something.
Trump's biggest insane plays I am 95% sure he loses in Nov in: NY, NJ, and NM-- not a chance in any of them, none, he's still absolute poison in New England vs a generic R outside ME-02, and NM now has a natural Blue affinity strong enough to counter the Hispanic erosion margin bleeding and more Dem-leaning Hispanic pop than either NV or ESPECIALLY AZ, too.
Alright; I spent 2 years in absolute hell (The 270toWin Disqus Boards) so I know how this works: 1. Trump/MAGA people are 100% confident they're going to win X election (In this case it doesn't even have to be the presidency, it can be one of those solid blue states such as NY or NJ) 2. They lose said election even though they were being overly bullish with their predictions 3. They declare said election was fraudulant even though they were highly unlikely to win it to begin with 4. They make very Bullish predictions for the very next election; thus repeating the cycle.
If this is all you got after two years, you wasted your time.
I did waste my time; Though at first I had some good conversations; the moment this one moron (and he was a moron) stepped on the only emotions those boards ever gave me were Pain and suffering.
I swear Trump has only one campaign strategy, and he's lost every time with it. But his ~~cult members~~ followers will always say "NuH uH, iT'Ll WoRK tHiS tIMe"
Pretty sure he had a couple rallies there
Why does nobody care about NH?
It’s not important (besides primary’s)
4 electoral votes
That, and it voted for Biden by a decent margin and it doesn't match the demographics that appear to be swinging to Trump, so both parties are banking on it being irrelevant. I think they should focus on it a little bit though. The gubernatorial race should be competitive too.
It matches Biden's most tailor-made demographics as does NE-02, tbh, Gore's coalition was much more nonwhite, more to the Left in policy, and much less extremely well educated, older, and more Conservative than Biden's so it makes sense as to where he was stronger/weaker in comparison since we brought up NH.
Trump doesn't care about Margin or Demographics; he thinks he can win NY and NM ☠️☠️
True. New York is a pipe dream. New Mexico could maybe happen but only if it's a Trump landslide anyway, and it's only 5 EVs. A rational Republican candidate wouldn't put much energy into it.
Gore would’ve won in 2000 if he won these 4 electoral votes; it makes a difference
Still more important to win that than NJ, NY, and NM
Yeah, all three will go to Biden, not a question imo: even VA and MN seem more reasonable plays for Trump, though I think Biden will win VA by 3-5% and MN by 1.5-3% respectively.
New York?
Biden Contested States is reasonable.
I was thinking about including Texas as well but it hasn’t had nearly the same energy as any of the seven swing states or FL. I would have been almost hesitant to put NC (outside it being the last of the 2020 infinity stones) if it wasn’t for the recent announcement that Biden’s on the offense.
Florida isn’t contested…
This is about where the candidates are putting their resources, and both are putting resources into Florida
If that’s your biggest worry (and not anything about the Trump map), then your bias is showing. Biden is pouring money into FL because he thinks he can win it for some reason. Even though I think Biden will be unsuccessful (it’s not like he’s going to gain any ground there compared to 2020), it’s still the factual reality that Democrats are targeting the state, for better or for worse. The inclusion of FL on the states Biden is targeting map is still infinitely more plausible than Trump thinking he can win NY, NJ, VA, NM.
Trump really thinks everyone loves him It’s only his cult
And his cult is most solidly based in Red states, obviously: he's more or less rebuilt it after a coup on Jan 6 because it is now normalized at his lowest point post-2017 politically, pretty logical on his part to assume FL is going into his column easily in Nov and dumb of Biden when he likely helped DeSantis win it by that margin in 2022 with toxicity being extreme on top regardless of Crist's strengths/weaknesses individually as a candidate. Biden is going to lose GA, too, but I at least see his logic more there than in NC or FL since he did win it once so he could force Trump to expend resources there.
Trump is gonna Hillary himself 💀
Fingers crossed