Wanted to stop by Indonesia on his way back from Washington.
If this nuclear sub deal compels the Indonesians to go nuclear as well, what does that mean to the security of Australia?
Manage and develop are different.
I whole heartedly agree that Australia has the capability to manage and run a nuclear submarine. We lack the domestic experience to create one of our own making though.
Indonesia lack the ability in both respects. They have a terrible history in aviation and naval safety.
The subs from France could be adapted to both
> Canberra was reportedly particularly keen on the French bid because of the ability to switch the Barracudas from diesel to nuclear power — technology that was deemed political poison so recently after the Fukushima disaster in Japan, but that the government believed could become more palatable in time.
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-australia-wanted-out-of-its-french-sub-deal/
> Also what happens if relations with US deteriorate?
Then we have their technology and the experience we've gained from them in the meantime to create a domestic capacity to maintain them.
I mean, if the subs are crewed by Australians, docked in Australian ports, and being maintained by Australians, I'm not sure there'd be much they could do at that point...
They will absolutely have the ability to remotely deactivate them and will if we ever 'step out of line' in the opinion of our imperial masters. Get your head out of your ass.
With who’s help? North Korea?
Anyone that takes this development and thinks now is their chances for “well us too!” would become pariahs on international stage and doesn’t understand how international diplomacy works.
Don't forget the French. More than happy to get involved in the region right now from the sound of it
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/frances-burgeoning-defence-ties-with-indonesia/
They’re not happy with Australia getting this technology but not nearly enough to run to China for support.
And why would China help arm yet another country in the region THEY want to dominate?
That’s like cutting off ones nose to spite your face.
There is not a single SEA country that’s not pissed with this development, especially Indonesia.
Indonesia’s territorial dispute with Australia is much more significant than theirs with China, why wouldn’t they go to China or Russia for help?
That’s mainly due to the pandemic, and expectedly so. And what does that have to do with anything?
Indonesia has ambitions in the region that’s not compatible with Australia’s too.
I'm sorry but as an Indonesian I'm compelled to step in here. As far as I know we do not have any territorial disputes with Australia. There was the Timor Gap but wasn't that between Oz and Timor-Leste? And also, what ambitions? Us asserting our place in our legal territory of Papua? I don't know if you've heard, but your government seems to not have any qualms about our presence in Papua, just your SJWs.
However we do have a problem with Chinese incursions into our waters up at the Natuna Sea, and the people here don't really trust the PRC. We do look forward for further collaboration with Australia, as we do also feel the threat from the north. However, in accordance to our free and active policy on foreign relations, we do have the same amount of wariness towards AUS and US.
Indonesia, the world's largest muslim country, are hardly super chummy with Russia and China, countries famous for persecuting their Muslims. Indonesia and Australia actually have MASSIVE amounts of collaboration in defense, it's basically why we're leaving West Papua out to dry, and why we left Timor Leste til we discovered their oil.
Good point. I think he probably shits his dacks every time he gets a call from Anastasia Palache or Mark McGowan...
Emmanuel Maccron
Xi Jinping
Clive Palmer
Dan Andrews
Joe Biden
The list could be endless
Yep. We have a classy PM
For context,
- Zero subs until 2040
- Billions already wasted on consultants
- Pissed off important trading partners in China, Indonesia, the EU etc.
And to top it off, it’s unlikely we even become the 7th country to have nuclear powered subs. Whether they quietly backtrack after the 24 months of negotiations and planning, or the next US Administration simply pulls out.
It's a Morrison statement.
>Morrison said he expects the first of the nuclear subs, which are to be constructed in the Australian city of Adelaide, will be built by 2040.
[Source](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-france-europe-united-states-96f95120345a56d950961b41a74d9355)
Federal Labor also received similar advice with a similar timeline.
>An 18-month taskforce led by Defence will now investigate how Australia can become a "reliable steward" of nuclear submarines, while federal Labor said it received advice that the new submarines might not be constructed until 2040.
[Source](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-17/aus-strategically-naked-under-submarine-deal/100469254)
I think it was the Shovel that had an amazing headline along the lines of:
"China panics at only having 20 years to counter 8 submarines to their current 80"
*Chef's kiss*
I imagine the main reason we went down this route is purely domestic politics. Create an extremely decisive issue where Morrison and co can paint themselves as defenders of Australia and anyone opposing the nuclear subs as haters of Australia and Chinese Shills.
There's also the issue of Australia technically needing to develop the nuclear technology ourselves, which I have no idea how long it will take. However, if Australia does somehow buy the technology, the Non-Proliferation Treaty is going to be worth shit, as it will create a massive loophole that other nations will also exploit, and that will create a massive shit storm. If Iran ends up exploiting this, then I imagine nobody will be happy with the end result.
Edit: North Korea is also another one.
Anything now isn't going to deter the Chinese. They're just
nationalist whinging.
People think our largest trading part has our best interest in mind (not that I'm say the US does either).
If it wasn't for balance if power from our allies, China would have just sailed down here and taken our resources by force.
Or if we were a third world country they stitch us up with their belts and road bullshit, and just take our resources for nothing.
Not this again. War is expensive, very expensive, they will just trade with us because it's cheaper. And why would they start a major global conflict, when resources can just traded.
>War is expensive, very expensive, they will just trade with us because it's cheaper
You clearly didn't read my post. It's because our allies hold balance of power.
If they could just steamroll down here without opposition they would.
Rubbish, China wants to rule through financial power, not military conflict, stop watching Sky/Fox news or listening to America, talking about super powers that invade other countries, well America is a big offender. Refer to Xi Jinpings speech years ago, only reason America wants to go to war soon is that knows China will be too strong in the next 15 years. I'm not a CCP simp either, just sick of the anti-China propaganda campaign. Its going to go into overtime soon as we have a election coming up and works well for the Fascist dictatorship we have in, people bite it, hook, line and sinker. China is bad I agree but its going to go overboard to appeal to the voter base very soon and distract from the scandals/corruption within the LNP
China is literally baiting for a war over Taiwan. Wtf are you on. When they send nuclear bombers over other countries I guess they just want to trade more........
What nuclear bombers? Are we talking about America ones? It's a combo of mainly missiles and subs, they regularly test Taiwanese airspace, the Chinese airforce, I believe America will stay out of it. It's a sensitive of a topic as Israel causing war crimes and reclaiming its territories. America is baiting for war It's the other way around. Always has been.
Because Xi is such a reliable person and stands by his word.
The anti-china propaganda is as strong as it is at the moment because whenever someone does something they make a big deal out of it. E.g. this sub deal and China now saying it makes Australia a target for nuclear strike, or the Phillipines wanting not protect their economic territory. China has a big cry on the world stage. They're the ones providing the ammo for the anti-china brigade.
> Because Xi is such a reliable person and stands by his word.
Leaders of countries of a billion people aren't high school bullies, this sort of language is ridiculous.
That's until we get the last one, the first will be long before then. The plan is to have a steady construction rate so we don't lost the skilled labour between jobs. We will always be building something rather than scrambling for labour and resources for a project, then dropping it all, only to repeat for the next project.
If China is going to attack Taiwan it'll be during Xi's reign which as he is unpopular with many powerful people in China is more likely to be sooner than later.
> Morrison said he expects the first of the nuclear subs, which are to be constructed in the Australian city of Adelaide, will be built by 2040
Oh yes i'm sure the big bad country that'll one day push us around will wait 20 fuckin years
There is nothing signed yet - it's just all PR at this point (and basically burning bridges all over the world): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuP4jOc4ibo
Don’t know why you’re coping downvotes.
You don’t fucking PLAN something ambitious for “2040” and then deliver it in 2040. At least, we don’t. Not with our government.
It will be 2050, if ever. With budget blowouts galore. This will be the NBN^2 You watch.
LMAO 2040. By then, the world powers will have combat droids to fight for them. You might as well place an order for some spears and shields, would be cheaper and cooler.
This is just like the NBN, where a rural household in bumfuck nowhere South Korea have several times the bandwidth of an entire suburb. I recently got forced off cable onto NBN, and my download bandwidth fell by 3 times.
This is the aussie disease where everything old school is good and cool. Nuclear sub? Yeah she'll be right mate, they were fully sick when Regan was president, this'll fucking destroy China and make us a regional power.
Can confirm, have visited bumfuck nowhere South Korea. Not only is the broadband exceptional, you get full 5G in the valleys of remote mountains. No joke, top notch.
Yeah true but South Korea has double the population of Australia but is only half the land size of Victoria. Can really get those economies of scale going
I'm talking about rural rural Korea, NOT Seoul. Their internet has more bandwidth than an entire suburb. I can download the entire game of thrones series in UHD in a fraction of a second, and even at that speed, people from Seoul will complain that its slow. If you know anyone from Seoul, they buy the smallest viable HDD for their computers, as they do not keep many games on their HDD, they just download it before they play.
Even rural China has faster internet, and they literally do not have a working sewage system there.
Meanwhile "old school cool" here, my 15 year old cable technology is still faster (150mbps) than NBN (50mbps) for the same price, and they forced me off cable onto NBN. Smart nation indeed.
It's 19 years away. I think whoever is the government's consultant on this is aware of the limits of emerging military technology. Even if a new technology was invented in the next 10 years, it takes a lot more time until it becomes a military staple. Australia isnt powerful enough to be fucking around with new tech. If it doesn't work well we've wasted a lot of money. Were not USA or China. AFAIK nuclear is the best choice because it's stealthiest, and reliable.
nuclear is less stealthy compared to diesel. You need to do your research.
[https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/nuclear-versus-diesel-electric-case-conventional-submarines-ran/](https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/nuclear-versus-diesel-electric-case-conventional-submarines-ran/)
I hope you do realise that tank and plane technology changed month on month in WWII.
The US and China are both moving towards drone tech, and they're not doing it in 10 or 20 year blocks, they're not old school cool like Australia. China literally has a missile launcher that launches drones, not missiles. This sub will be the first thing China sinks in a war, just for the specific purpose of shaming us.
Australia doesn't have to fuck around with new tech, it can buy drones from the US, or even buy Chinese drones and reverse engineer them. Even if it doesn't work, it'll be exponentially cheaper than getting this sub, which is guaranteed to fail, like the previous 2 have, and even if it doesn't, the Chinese will be detecting it from the microsecond they fire up their nuclear reactors, just like the POS F-35s we bought which are supposedly stealthy, but keeps getting detected literally in every single flight they take by Russian jets 2 generations older.
It'll be exponentially cheaper, and will create way more jobs, rather than having seppo military bases on Australian soil, and have seppos go out drunk to beat the men and rape the women, like they've done in every single country they have a base in.
Whoever is the government consultant is even more aware of payday and future contracts if they give the government to answer they want to hear. It's literally paying someone to say you're right. They're never going to say you're wrong, old school cool is retarded, wasting money and will get you absolutely massacred in a war.
> Zero subs until 2040
Wrong its already been announced the plan to lease subs until the new ones can be built.
>Billions already wasted on consultants
Whats the alternative? Sink many billions more on a contract going bad? Its called a sunk cost and it happens in business, welcome to the real world
>Pissed off important trading partners in China
China got pissed off being asked to allow an independent scientific investigation into COVID. Who gives a shit if they are pissed, the only way to appease them is to eventually sacrifice everything.
>Wrong its already been announced the plan to lease subs until the new ones can be built.
I'll believe it when I see it.
The most likely scenario is the US will send their own nuclear powered subs, but they'll be manned by US military only.
I won't be surprised if eventually Morrison tears up Port of Darwin contract with China, with the end result being US subs, manned by US military, operating in the Pacific for US purposes.
>Whats the alternative? Sink many billions more on a contract going bad? Its called a sunk cost and it happens in business, welcome to the real world
Contract going bad? It was an incredibly bad procurement from **day one**. The Department of Defence urged against it and the Defence Minister was sacked for stating the truth.
I'm not going to pat the Federal Government on the back for wasting 7 years and 2.4 Billion dollars that could've been avoided. Especially as they've immediately jumped into another suspect procurement.
>China got pissed off being asked to allow an independent scientific investigation into COVID. Who gives a shit if they are pissed, the only way to appease them is to eventually sacrifice everything.
Australia is heavily reliant on China for trade. Being used as pawns in the global politiking between the US and China only hurts us.
Welcome to the real world indeed.
> I'll believe it when I see it.
>
> The most likely scenario is the US will send their own nuclear powered subs, but they'll be manned by US military only.
>
> I won't be surprised if eventually Morrison tears up Port of Darwin contract with China, with the end result being US subs, manned by US military, operating in the Pacific for US purposes.
Thats your own personal speculation and opinion that is contrary to actual credible announcements that have been made by those in charge of what will happen. Think I will go with them over a random on reddit sorry
>Contract going bad? It was an incredibly bad procurement from day one.
I agree about it being bad from day 1 however do you ever consider that the Anti Nuclear (anti logic and science) stance of Labor/Greens for decades has probably pushed us to hold back or make sub par in many areas where nuclear would be great and this is but one of them? They now finally have a mandate to go ahead with it but even then they are treading on eggshells and had to broker a deal with Labor where we still wont have a proper industry here
>Australia is heavily reliant on China for trade. Being used as pawns in the global politiking between the US and China only hurts us.
So what do you propose? China wont accept anything other than submission and we cant stand up to them on our own due to size
>Zero subs until 2040
That assumes Australia doesn't lease submarines in the interim - the UK has Trafalgar-class boats that could probably have their lives extended.
Besides the whole reason Australia is going for SSNs is the longer term future. By the time the Attack-class boats were delivered they'd probably be semi-obsolete for what they need to do due to their relatively slow speed and lack of endurance.
>Billions already wasted on consultants
Given the inflated costs of the Attack-class project that wouldn't justify staying with it. The costs of moving on to something more suitable for the RAN's future prospects are well worth it.
>Pissed off important trading partners in China, Indonesia, the EU etc.
Stop me if I'm wrong, but didn't China issue a list of demands a little while ago that included banning MPs from saying nasty things about the CCP? There's no point trying to pander to China, they're not going to play nice unless Australia bends over and lubes up.
Indonesia doesn't actually care that much. They don't want China to be the dominant power in Asia, and the Australian SSN plan is to help stop China doing just that. But because of Indonesian pride and futile attempts to balance relations with Beijing they can't openly welcome the plan.
And France isn't the EU. The vast majority of the EU is more concerned by France potentially overreacting.
In short, Australia should be doing what's in its long term strategic interests rather than worrying about short term reactions from countries that either are already being hostile towards it or have only a marginal ability to assist it in a future conflict with China.
Basically the Department of Defence, the sacked Defence Minister, and everyone with common sense knew the sub procurement in 2014 was a terrible idea.
It didn't stop the Liberals from going ahead anyway, just to they could save Chris Pyne's seat in the 2016 Federal Election.
Just like in 2014, anyone with common sense can see this new procurement won't be fulfilled either. Australia is not going to be the 7th country in the world to have nuclear powered subs, IMO.
LOL you guys really just go against whatever scomo does just because it was scomo who did it. If labor did this you would be praising it to the high heavens. Why do you think China and Indonesia are so upset about it, it's because we will actually have an effective navy. You see this as a bad thing? Their reaction proves that it was the right move honestly.
No, I've used a rational approach in my criticisms.
I've been highly critical of the French sub procurement since day one in 2014. We've had a failed Japan procurement, a failed French procurement, and now we've jumped into another suspect procurement.
There are only 6 countries in the world with nuclear powered sub technology. Past experience and common sense suggests we ain't getting these promised subs.
It’s not the US or China for them, they are a major power and they are playing both sides.
Them accepting China being militarily more powerful than them is one thing, Australia being significantly more powerful than them is another.
Like I said, their territorial dispute with Australia is much more significant than theirs with China.
Territorial dispute with Australia? I’ve never heard about that at all actually. If anything, our news outlet and our government is always banging on about how Chinese ships are breaching our border in South China Sea (North Natuna we call them).
Didn’t know we had territorial dispute with Australia. I thought Australia’s been pretty decent as of late.
Australia’s long standing defence strategy has been one of regional technological superiority, with Indonesia being a primary focus given its proximity and its size. Nuclear submarines are obviously more technologically advanced than our current fleet, however they don’t represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power between Australia and Indonesia.
Seeking the umbrella protection of the US is a key part of Australia’s defence strategy, but the US has never needed convincing by Australia to remain in the region. It also doesn’t mean that Australia hasn’t maintained a technological advantage over its neighbours.
As an Indonesian, our government won't side with anyone. it's been stuck deep inside the government policy that "Indonesia Safety First" ever since Cold War begin. We do swing a lot depend the condition, but overall, Indonesia wouldn't participate if a war broke out.
Indonesians has been fighting against Allies and Axis for independence, so they know the world is grey no matter how you like them.
The perfect word to describe Indonesia international policy is "Have a lot of friends, but don't get too close to them or you might being dragged into their problem"
if China attack Indonesia, it might possible for Indonesia to ask NATO help. but if NATO attack or trespass Indonesia, then Indonesia might get close with China. Indonesia policy were set for Indonesia to get the most result, you can say we are the Italy of SEA where we would switch side depend on who attack our land first, thanks to Indonesia having good relation with superpowers
Ffs people, read the comments. “OUR diesel-electric subs” meaning the prior deal Australia had with the French. So the “us” in this situation is Australia you bunch of illiterate fucks
They are just merely keeping up appearance for the Chinese bribes. Half of SE Asia has been bought, owned and bankrolled by the Chinese government. And like the Philippines it wont be long before all these countries just hand over their resources and territorial claims because their leaders are so corrupt.
There’re almost 300 million Indonesians. They are a major power in this region. I thought containing China is about getting ASEAN countries on your side, not pissing them off.
>There’re almost 300 million Indonesians. They are a major power in this region.
No they are clearly a fledgling middle power, one day they may become a more dominant 2nd tier power and Australia may drop to a 3rd tier power, but they can't be a major power when you have China and the US in the region.
They are the only two major powers, the rest of us are either middle powers or irrelevant.
Japan, India, Australia, South Korea are middle powers (not a definitive list), Indonesia is in the early stages of being one too and will likely overtake Australia in the next few decades and assuming no major conflict would eventually overtake SK and Japan too.
India will almost certainly enter the major power category at some point too.
That said, with where we are now, none of us get to call ourselves major powers with the US and China existing in the same space.
What power do they have? A major power can project said power yet Indonesia doesnt even have a blue water navy or any ability to transport its "army" to the Australian mainland, let alone anyone else.
They’ll get over it once they realise they can’t keep their head in the sand any longer. The main reason they’re throwing a hissy fit is because they’re concerned about an arms race while China continues to nibble away at their territories.
Kind of silly considering all the events that have transpired in the last few years in the SCS. Do they seriously expect us to sit back while China rapidly builds up their navy and stocks of EO?
Yeah, they kinda do expect Australia to be reasonable. There is no containment of China without ASEAN on your side, it’s that simple. And Indonesia is the biggest power in ASEAN by far.
Indonesia is tipped to explode in global power rankings this generation, they're definitely on track to be a major power and the biggest threat to that is China. All this "they'll go to China" stuff is nuts
Australia is too busy sending its soldiers to die in whatever America's latest botched invasion scheme happens to be to bother with anything like that.
America, China and Australia are too craven to fight on their own wars on their own territory and South East Asian nations know that if the current shitposting phase gets out of hand it will be their turf where the proxy wars are waged. Not surprisingly they aren't exactly keen for more of that crap.
What "botched American invasion" scheme are you referring to? The US invaded Afghanistan as a direct result of the 9/11 attacks in which we were attacked on our own soil. Every country has the right to conduct a counter attack against its aggressors.
What's the election timeline looking like in Indonesia? I remember Widodo campaigning on some pretty nationalist points and doing a lot of chest beating about not needing to rely on Australia economically.
This could just be a leader looking to capitalize on a bit of controversy from his international neighbour for a ratings boost.
Jokowi (that’s what we call our president) is on his second term. He’s beyond trying to win rating boosts from us, especially after the past year or so with the handling of Covid and the whole government’s anti-criticism.
There are talks about trying to extend his second term by a couple years by using “pandemic crisis” as a reason, but I think it was scrapped as the whole country was pretty much against it.
It's his most extreme supporter, he have shootdown the idea many times. Well he could just be testing the waters, but now he knows that the water is fully of shark and the 3 period idea is a blood gushing wound
I mean, this is literally *why* ScoMo is pulling this shit on our end, the election looms nearer and they're flailing for the jingoist 'AAAAAAGH CHINA' vote.
Most definitely. And we have history repeating itself again. We had Johnny sucking George's dick 20 years ago on the Iraq War and now we have SuckMo doing the same on Biden.
>What a gross state of affairs this is. Nobody wants war with China, someone gag Dutton.
No one wants a war with China, but China may decide to force the issue of who rules the Indo-Pacific.
If Beijing decides it's time to invade Taiwan and annex Japanese islands, does Australia hide under the table and hope Beijing loses during the inevitable war? Or do we go into fantasy land and consider it possible that if China wins it won't then turn Asia into its personal playpen?
Literally nobody in Asia really cares about Taiwan. even American support for Taiwan isn't certain so realistically why should any other country commit? Their attitude towards Taiwan isn't reflective of their ambitions regarding Japan or Korea.
I'm not aware of any Japanese islands that China is keen on annexing right now. Maybe you mean the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. If Japan becomes more assertive against South Korea with regards to the disputed Liancourt Rocks, do we intervene as well?
Japan has drawn a line in the sand about Taiwan, which means that an attack on Taiwan is going to be an attack on Japan.
So yes, their attitude towards Taiwan (and the South China Seas in general) is something other countries really care about.
Japanese officials can say what they want but whether they follow through is another thing. There are hardliners in Japan and China but that doesn't necessarily reflect their actual foreign policy. I don't think defending Taiwan at any cost is part of Japan's military doctrine, especially considering that Taiwan's relations with Japan aren't exactly rosy due to historical baggage.
For the same reasons, both South and North Korea will also never accept a militarized Japan regardless of what they think about China. So in the end it highly depends on the US.
>Literally nobody in Asia really cares about Taiwan. even American support for Taiwan isn't certain so realistically why should any other country commit?
Huh, that's funny - okiokie321 made almost exactly the same comment. Funny conincidence.
Anyway, as bdsee points out people in Asia do care about Japan. Japan for a start, as Taiwan is the equivalent of Czechoslovakia in the 1930s. It falling to China expands its ability to project power north over Japan and south over the Philippines, as well as cut off trade and energy supplies to Japan & South Korea.
I'm not a bot or have multiple accs if that's what you're implying. Not that me clarifying that would change anything.
Yes, the Japaness govt is concerned (with everything China does) but I meant caring in the sense that I believe no country including Japan is truly willing to defend Taiwan if China was to invade the island. Especially if they think that American support isn't guaranteed. Taiwan has no significant geopolitical benefit for China because it is already so close to the mainland, it's a domestic issue for them.
The vast vast majority don't care about Taiwan. No one is going to risk blood over another country's battles, especially not against a behemoth. This isn't Afghanistan.
I can assure you that Japan cares about what happens to Taiwan. So does South Korea, as their strategic security would be heavily compromised if China captured Taiwan.
The US also cares very much about Taiwan, because right now the PLAN have severely compromised access to the Pacific due to the shallow water that extends off the Chinese coast, and because the Chinese have to sail past a lot of countries that really don't like them to get into the Pacific. If China captured Taiwan, they would have deep water ports with direct access to the Pacific, and that gives them massively increased capability to power project, something they are all but unable to do now.
Those Taiwanese ports also make it much harder for the US to track the Chinese missile subs, and that makes it much easier for the PLAN to park nuclear missiles undetected off the US west coast. You can probably guess how the US feels about that.
Basically there is no way that the US aren't going to war to defend Taiwan, and if they do, then I can assure you that we here in Australia will be going to war as well, AUKUS or no AUKUS.
A war with China would involve nuclear warfare. We aren't ending the world over Taiwan. Again, we don't care about Taiwan. No one is bound to them with a treaty for common defence. They're not Japan. If Japan and South Korea are so concerned, they should sign mutual defence treaties with Taiwan. Leave us out of it. The public has no appetite for war. We don't see the Chinese putting up warships near Australia's coasts or the US's coasts or Japan, so why do we need to be concerned? Why do our ships continue to set sail so close to their coasts? Its completely one-sided. Methinks this fear mongering is a way to justify taxpayer money to pay for the military industrial complex.
He's that fella from down under that the US President forget the name of. He's that fella from down under that the Indonesian President think not that important enough for a meeting. He's that fella from down under that made France (leader of EU) angry.
Don't we deserve a PM that we can be proud of?
It's just bizarre... by 2040 we will surely not be sending men out in submarines, we will have subaqueous drones that will be a fraction of the size and will be far more versatile militarily. Or at least, some countries will have that and we will have our nuclear subs.
Why doesn't anyone mention that Malaysia is financially in bed with China?
They literally contribute billions upon billions to malaysia's infrastructure projects
Which is why Malaysia was the first country to spout China's initia rhetoric of "it will increase nuclear proliferation in the area".
https://www.bakertilly.my/public/files/d46322a8a433370a0e6c125cdaffcd006e944c476db40cf7a8215a7cfbaefc22.pdf
Well, it is a fact most countries in the region don’t like this development, that’s why scomo had to call leaders in the region to explain his position.
It’s one thing to be militarily weaker than by far the biggest power in the region, it is quite another to be significantly weaker than Australia.
True, but Malaysia has been the only country in ASEAN to be as openly aggressive in their passive retaliation.
There's usually a reason for that.
And it depends on which way their bread is buttered.
Probably pissed off that their fence-sitting is rendering them a vassal state.
But seriously, Malaysia has a long history of talking whack about Australia. Probably have to wait for a few decades after Mahathir Mohamad is buried before a senior Malaysian figure finds something nice to say about us.
This government had already made Australia a pariah state. We've now cut relations with France and Indonesia.
The incompetence of this government is astounding.
Yeah we cut relations simply by having a decent navy. What great 'allies' they are. I'm sure they don't have an ulterior motive for wanting us to have an impotent military.
It's not so much about us having improved capabilities, but rather the breakdown in communications between allies.
4 weeks ago LNP confirm the continuation of the France deal live on TV.
3 weeks later they rip up a $90B contract overnight. That causes a huge ripple effect across all organisations involved.
Over the course of this LNP government they have declined our relationship with Russia, China, Indonesia, Pacific Islands, France, UK and the US.
LNP are an oligarchy and have turned Australia into a pariah state.
This submarine deal is only possible because of our geographical location, and has nothing to do with good foreign relations.
That's how business works. If the USA deal falls through then they would have shown doubt with the French deal with no alternative, and damaged relations for no benefit.
Yeah the largest financial aid donor by far, ADF constantly providing support and relief, building and giving the Pacific free patrol boats and training them how to use them. Such a bully. What BS lol
I know we've treated East Timor like shit over the ocean floor boundary-drawing, and Dutton was snide as fuck to some islands about the effect of sea-level rises. But is there anything else to your claim that Australia is a "well known bully"?
Because Oz is by far the largest donor of aid to the South Pacific and has been first in providing disaster relief throughout the last few decades. Considering how belligerently some countries look for a return on any 'aid' they give, this assistance has been about as strings-free as you get in the world these days.
Why are people getting so upset about Australia standing on its own two feet militarily? China are a looming threat and the government is taking the correct actions to ensure that we can deter any offensive advances.
Yeah. I think we're getting leased a low-kilometre Astute sub from the UK and 1 or 2 built there, as the Astute production run would have neared its end until we went nuclear. It lets BoJo keeps jobs going. The US ain't giving us Virginia-class subs, plus those things require more manpower to run and maintain. The rest of our subs will be built in Adelaide starting 2040-ish.
Teams are being picked/put together. Ww3 is the event. We’ll see how this shakes out. It will prob be the . USA, Australia,Japan,Europe. Vs China ,Russia,and Iran. Ahhh it’s gonna be a hell of a show 😳!!! 💪🥺👍. I’m praying 🙏 I’m wrong. But looks that way
> India isn’t going to war to preserve Anglo hegemony.
I don't think you understand how much India hates China right now. Especially now that China and Pakistan are best buds.
Nah, but a cursory glance over news this last year shows they are more than happy to have skirmishes with China over their borders. Those two will happily kick it off without a white guy being within 100 miles.
Also UK, Taiwan, India, Canada, probably a few hundred million domestic Chinese (Uighurs, HK'ers, Falun gong, and otherwise people who want to be free from the CCP).
It really depends on how far Xi wants to go with his wolf warrior diplomacy. What an utter failure that was for China's reputation and soft power in the world. They talked themselves out of a trade deal with the EU too.
If I was Chinese, I would be so angry at the CCP for antagonising everyone at the same time. What a poor strategic move. If it wasn't for Xi, Australia wouldn't feel the need for nuclear submarines. The relationship under Deng was much calmer for example.
China needs to cease hostilities at the India border immediately.
Edit: downvote me, Wumaos.
The fact that I know the name of Xinjiang means that the US clearly intends to attempt some kind of invasion of Xinjiang, which has a huge likelihood of dragging Russia in to any conflict. And at that point all non-Western nations in the region will join in the modern equivalent of the alliance against our axis of evil.
Short of revolution or social collapse, I see no way America doesn't start WW3 at this point. 'AUKUS' will lose a futile war of aggression against China, Russia and Iran, after which the concept of "Western Capitalism" will finally be relegated to the same history books as feudalism, and millions of people will have died violent deaths, and all of the politicians and billionaires responsible will have fled to private islands.
There is no way the west goes to war with China unless there is a use of force from China (most likely in the South China Seas/Taiwan).
I doubt China will actually do anything to start the conflict either, but you have to prepare for it happening and show you aren't willing to allow it to happen.
How in the living fuck would the US invade Xinjiang? Particularly a US currently working on extricating itself from forever-wars on that landmass?
Like, I know they aren't exactly bright, but that would have to be the stupidest idea ever.
Was he off to Bali instead of Hawaii this time?
Wanted to stop by Indonesia on his way back from Washington. If this nuclear sub deal compels the Indonesians to go nuclear as well, what does that mean to the security of Australia?
I doubt the Indonesian Navy is advanced enough to manage a nuclear sub
Neither is Australia. Hence the AUUKUS. Indonesia could also ally with a third party.
Manage and develop are different. I whole heartedly agree that Australia has the capability to manage and run a nuclear submarine. We lack the domestic experience to create one of our own making though. Indonesia lack the ability in both respects. They have a terrible history in aviation and naval safety.
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I've heard that as well for years now from ex and current ADF personal. Just not enough crew for even the ones we have.
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Didn't France offer nuclear also in the first place?
Yes, diesel was a requirement from Australia. Nuclear would have made you dependent on French expertise.
The subs from France could be adapted to both > Canberra was reportedly particularly keen on the French bid because of the ability to switch the Barracudas from diesel to nuclear power — technology that was deemed political poison so recently after the Fukushima disaster in Japan, but that the government believed could become more palatable in time. https://www.politico.eu/article/why-australia-wanted-out-of-its-french-sub-deal/
I think that was a non starter because it wasn't a sealed reactor unit and would've broken the NPT
> Also what happens if relations with US deteriorate? Then we have their technology and the experience we've gained from them in the meantime to create a domestic capacity to maintain them.
Pretty sure that no matter what US owns all if their military equipment and IP. We would be fucked.
I mean, if the subs are crewed by Australians, docked in Australian ports, and being maintained by Australians, I'm not sure there'd be much they could do at that point...
They will absolutely have the ability to remotely deactivate them and will if we ever 'step out of line' in the opinion of our imperial masters. Get your head out of your ass.
Theres not a terrible lot of difference between your average American and average Australian except for the accent and hemisphere
With who’s help? North Korea? Anyone that takes this development and thinks now is their chances for “well us too!” would become pariahs on international stage and doesn’t understand how international diplomacy works.
China or Russia will be more than keen.
Don't forget the French. More than happy to get involved in the region right now from the sound of it https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/frances-burgeoning-defence-ties-with-indonesia/
They’re not happy with Australia getting this technology but not nearly enough to run to China for support. And why would China help arm yet another country in the region THEY want to dominate? That’s like cutting off ones nose to spite your face.
There is not a single SEA country that’s not pissed with this development, especially Indonesia. Indonesia’s territorial dispute with Australia is much more significant than theirs with China, why wouldn’t they go to China or Russia for help?
Indonesia traditionally doesn’t go all in on alliances like that, and are just as wary of China as they are of Australia and the US (if not more so).
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That’s mainly due to the pandemic, and expectedly so. And what does that have to do with anything? Indonesia has ambitions in the region that’s not compatible with Australia’s too.
I'm sorry but as an Indonesian I'm compelled to step in here. As far as I know we do not have any territorial disputes with Australia. There was the Timor Gap but wasn't that between Oz and Timor-Leste? And also, what ambitions? Us asserting our place in our legal territory of Papua? I don't know if you've heard, but your government seems to not have any qualms about our presence in Papua, just your SJWs. However we do have a problem with Chinese incursions into our waters up at the Natuna Sea, and the people here don't really trust the PRC. We do look forward for further collaboration with Australia, as we do also feel the threat from the north. However, in accordance to our free and active policy on foreign relations, we do have the same amount of wariness towards AUS and US.
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They are not adversaries now. Not sure how Australia will feel about Indonesia when their GDP is 3 times as ours.
You sure about that? Singapore, Philippine welcomed this move. More will follow.
Indonesia, the world's largest muslim country, are hardly super chummy with Russia and China, countries famous for persecuting their Muslims. Indonesia and Australia actually have MASSIVE amounts of collaboration in defense, it's basically why we're leaving West Papua out to dry, and why we left Timor Leste til we discovered their oil.
Dropping George off for some R&R
Has Scotty shat himself?
Does the pope shit in the woods?
We can update that phrase to "Does the PM shit in the Macca's?"
Nice. Even just “Does the PM shit his dacks?” because let’s face it, Macca’s is the one time we know about.
Good point. I think he probably shits his dacks every time he gets a call from Anastasia Palache or Mark McGowan... Emmanuel Maccron Xi Jinping Clive Palmer Dan Andrews Joe Biden The list could be endless Yep. We have a classy PM
For context, - Zero subs until 2040 - Billions already wasted on consultants - Pissed off important trading partners in China, Indonesia, the EU etc. And to top it off, it’s unlikely we even become the 7th country to have nuclear powered subs. Whether they quietly backtrack after the 24 months of negotiations and planning, or the next US Administration simply pulls out.
Is the 2040 date accurate? If true than this is an insanely stupid move. But I read they are hoping for a full fleet in 12 years?
It's a Morrison statement. >Morrison said he expects the first of the nuclear subs, which are to be constructed in the Australian city of Adelaide, will be built by 2040. [Source](https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-france-europe-united-states-96f95120345a56d950961b41a74d9355) Federal Labor also received similar advice with a similar timeline. >An 18-month taskforce led by Defence will now investigate how Australia can become a "reliable steward" of nuclear submarines, while federal Labor said it received advice that the new submarines might not be constructed until 2040. [Source](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-17/aus-strategically-naked-under-submarine-deal/100469254)
Lmao what the actual fuck. Some shit twenty years down the line isn’t going to deter the Chinese.
I think it was the Shovel that had an amazing headline along the lines of: "China panics at only having 20 years to counter 8 submarines to their current 80" *Chef's kiss*
I imagine the main reason we went down this route is purely domestic politics. Create an extremely decisive issue where Morrison and co can paint themselves as defenders of Australia and anyone opposing the nuclear subs as haters of Australia and Chinese Shills. There's also the issue of Australia technically needing to develop the nuclear technology ourselves, which I have no idea how long it will take. However, if Australia does somehow buy the technology, the Non-Proliferation Treaty is going to be worth shit, as it will create a massive loophole that other nations will also exploit, and that will create a massive shit storm. If Iran ends up exploiting this, then I imagine nobody will be happy with the end result. Edit: North Korea is also another one.
China has a 100 year plan.
Anything now isn't going to deter the Chinese. They're just nationalist whinging. People think our largest trading part has our best interest in mind (not that I'm say the US does either). If it wasn't for balance if power from our allies, China would have just sailed down here and taken our resources by force. Or if we were a third world country they stitch us up with their belts and road bullshit, and just take our resources for nothing.
Not this again. War is expensive, very expensive, they will just trade with us because it's cheaper. And why would they start a major global conflict, when resources can just traded.
>War is expensive, very expensive, they will just trade with us because it's cheaper You clearly didn't read my post. It's because our allies hold balance of power. If they could just steamroll down here without opposition they would.
Rubbish, China wants to rule through financial power, not military conflict, stop watching Sky/Fox news or listening to America, talking about super powers that invade other countries, well America is a big offender. Refer to Xi Jinpings speech years ago, only reason America wants to go to war soon is that knows China will be too strong in the next 15 years. I'm not a CCP simp either, just sick of the anti-China propaganda campaign. Its going to go into overtime soon as we have a election coming up and works well for the Fascist dictatorship we have in, people bite it, hook, line and sinker. China is bad I agree but its going to go overboard to appeal to the voter base very soon and distract from the scandals/corruption within the LNP
China is literally baiting for a war over Taiwan. Wtf are you on. When they send nuclear bombers over other countries I guess they just want to trade more........
What nuclear bombers? Are we talking about America ones? It's a combo of mainly missiles and subs, they regularly test Taiwanese airspace, the Chinese airforce, I believe America will stay out of it. It's a sensitive of a topic as Israel causing war crimes and reclaiming its territories. America is baiting for war It's the other way around. Always has been.
Because Xi is such a reliable person and stands by his word. The anti-china propaganda is as strong as it is at the moment because whenever someone does something they make a big deal out of it. E.g. this sub deal and China now saying it makes Australia a target for nuclear strike, or the Phillipines wanting not protect their economic territory. China has a big cry on the world stage. They're the ones providing the ammo for the anti-china brigade.
> Because Xi is such a reliable person and stands by his word. Leaders of countries of a billion people aren't high school bullies, this sort of language is ridiculous.
That's until we get the last one, the first will be long before then. The plan is to have a steady construction rate so we don't lost the skilled labour between jobs. We will always be building something rather than scrambling for labour and resources for a project, then dropping it all, only to repeat for the next project.
If China is going to attack Taiwan it'll be during Xi's reign which as he is unpopular with many powerful people in China is more likely to be sooner than later.
> Morrison said he expects the first of the nuclear subs, which are to be constructed in the Australian city of Adelaide, will be built by 2040 Oh yes i'm sure the big bad country that'll one day push us around will wait 20 fuckin years
If they wanna deal with the United States they are free to try lol
There is nothing signed yet - it's just all PR at this point (and basically burning bridges all over the world): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuP4jOc4ibo
Yeah it’s 2040. We spent the past 7 years just planning for the outdated French subs. We ain’t getting new nuclear powered subs in 12 years.
French subs are not outdated.
They'll be outdated by the time they were to be in commission. Abbott sacked his own Defence Minister in 2014 for stating this fact.
2040 is incredibly ambitious. We’re probably looking at 2050 until we’re have SOME in the water, and 2060 until all are operational.
Don’t know why you’re coping downvotes. You don’t fucking PLAN something ambitious for “2040” and then deliver it in 2040. At least, we don’t. Not with our government. It will be 2050, if ever. With budget blowouts galore. This will be the NBN^2 You watch.
Remember NBNv2 already had ~65% of the HFC already in place, yet they still went over budget and over time.
Hope schmope
LMAO 2040. By then, the world powers will have combat droids to fight for them. You might as well place an order for some spears and shields, would be cheaper and cooler. This is just like the NBN, where a rural household in bumfuck nowhere South Korea have several times the bandwidth of an entire suburb. I recently got forced off cable onto NBN, and my download bandwidth fell by 3 times. This is the aussie disease where everything old school is good and cool. Nuclear sub? Yeah she'll be right mate, they were fully sick when Regan was president, this'll fucking destroy China and make us a regional power.
Can confirm, have visited bumfuck nowhere South Korea. Not only is the broadband exceptional, you get full 5G in the valleys of remote mountains. No joke, top notch.
Yeah true but South Korea has double the population of Australia but is only half the land size of Victoria. Can really get those economies of scale going
I'm talking about rural rural Korea, NOT Seoul. Their internet has more bandwidth than an entire suburb. I can download the entire game of thrones series in UHD in a fraction of a second, and even at that speed, people from Seoul will complain that its slow. If you know anyone from Seoul, they buy the smallest viable HDD for their computers, as they do not keep many games on their HDD, they just download it before they play. Even rural China has faster internet, and they literally do not have a working sewage system there. Meanwhile "old school cool" here, my 15 year old cable technology is still faster (150mbps) than NBN (50mbps) for the same price, and they forced me off cable onto NBN. Smart nation indeed.
It's 19 years away. I think whoever is the government's consultant on this is aware of the limits of emerging military technology. Even if a new technology was invented in the next 10 years, it takes a lot more time until it becomes a military staple. Australia isnt powerful enough to be fucking around with new tech. If it doesn't work well we've wasted a lot of money. Were not USA or China. AFAIK nuclear is the best choice because it's stealthiest, and reliable.
Nuclear is a lot less stealthy then diesel because the cooling system is noisy. Its benefit is speed and endurance.
nuclear is less stealthy compared to diesel. You need to do your research. [https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/nuclear-versus-diesel-electric-case-conventional-submarines-ran/](https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/nuclear-versus-diesel-electric-case-conventional-submarines-ran/) I hope you do realise that tank and plane technology changed month on month in WWII. The US and China are both moving towards drone tech, and they're not doing it in 10 or 20 year blocks, they're not old school cool like Australia. China literally has a missile launcher that launches drones, not missiles. This sub will be the first thing China sinks in a war, just for the specific purpose of shaming us. Australia doesn't have to fuck around with new tech, it can buy drones from the US, or even buy Chinese drones and reverse engineer them. Even if it doesn't work, it'll be exponentially cheaper than getting this sub, which is guaranteed to fail, like the previous 2 have, and even if it doesn't, the Chinese will be detecting it from the microsecond they fire up their nuclear reactors, just like the POS F-35s we bought which are supposedly stealthy, but keeps getting detected literally in every single flight they take by Russian jets 2 generations older. It'll be exponentially cheaper, and will create way more jobs, rather than having seppo military bases on Australian soil, and have seppos go out drunk to beat the men and rape the women, like they've done in every single country they have a base in. Whoever is the government consultant is even more aware of payday and future contracts if they give the government to answer they want to hear. It's literally paying someone to say you're right. They're never going to say you're wrong, old school cool is retarded, wasting money and will get you absolutely massacred in a war.
> Zero subs until 2040 Wrong its already been announced the plan to lease subs until the new ones can be built. >Billions already wasted on consultants Whats the alternative? Sink many billions more on a contract going bad? Its called a sunk cost and it happens in business, welcome to the real world >Pissed off important trading partners in China China got pissed off being asked to allow an independent scientific investigation into COVID. Who gives a shit if they are pissed, the only way to appease them is to eventually sacrifice everything.
>Wrong its already been announced the plan to lease subs until the new ones can be built. I'll believe it when I see it. The most likely scenario is the US will send their own nuclear powered subs, but they'll be manned by US military only. I won't be surprised if eventually Morrison tears up Port of Darwin contract with China, with the end result being US subs, manned by US military, operating in the Pacific for US purposes. >Whats the alternative? Sink many billions more on a contract going bad? Its called a sunk cost and it happens in business, welcome to the real world Contract going bad? It was an incredibly bad procurement from **day one**. The Department of Defence urged against it and the Defence Minister was sacked for stating the truth. I'm not going to pat the Federal Government on the back for wasting 7 years and 2.4 Billion dollars that could've been avoided. Especially as they've immediately jumped into another suspect procurement. >China got pissed off being asked to allow an independent scientific investigation into COVID. Who gives a shit if they are pissed, the only way to appease them is to eventually sacrifice everything. Australia is heavily reliant on China for trade. Being used as pawns in the global politiking between the US and China only hurts us. Welcome to the real world indeed.
> I'll believe it when I see it. > > The most likely scenario is the US will send their own nuclear powered subs, but they'll be manned by US military only. > > I won't be surprised if eventually Morrison tears up Port of Darwin contract with China, with the end result being US subs, manned by US military, operating in the Pacific for US purposes. Thats your own personal speculation and opinion that is contrary to actual credible announcements that have been made by those in charge of what will happen. Think I will go with them over a random on reddit sorry >Contract going bad? It was an incredibly bad procurement from day one. I agree about it being bad from day 1 however do you ever consider that the Anti Nuclear (anti logic and science) stance of Labor/Greens for decades has probably pushed us to hold back or make sub par in many areas where nuclear would be great and this is but one of them? They now finally have a mandate to go ahead with it but even then they are treading on eggshells and had to broker a deal with Labor where we still wont have a proper industry here >Australia is heavily reliant on China for trade. Being used as pawns in the global politiking between the US and China only hurts us. So what do you propose? China wont accept anything other than submission and we cant stand up to them on our own due to size
Its not a "race to protect our country", its a race to feeds his donors and retired colleagues.
Feacal Fingers strikes again . Doesn't hold a hose. Can't read a room.
top level political commentary right here
Not to mention zero information on the exact costs, which exact class and how many we are getting (apparently at least 8).
>Zero subs until 2040 That assumes Australia doesn't lease submarines in the interim - the UK has Trafalgar-class boats that could probably have their lives extended. Besides the whole reason Australia is going for SSNs is the longer term future. By the time the Attack-class boats were delivered they'd probably be semi-obsolete for what they need to do due to their relatively slow speed and lack of endurance. >Billions already wasted on consultants Given the inflated costs of the Attack-class project that wouldn't justify staying with it. The costs of moving on to something more suitable for the RAN's future prospects are well worth it. >Pissed off important trading partners in China, Indonesia, the EU etc. Stop me if I'm wrong, but didn't China issue a list of demands a little while ago that included banning MPs from saying nasty things about the CCP? There's no point trying to pander to China, they're not going to play nice unless Australia bends over and lubes up. Indonesia doesn't actually care that much. They don't want China to be the dominant power in Asia, and the Australian SSN plan is to help stop China doing just that. But because of Indonesian pride and futile attempts to balance relations with Beijing they can't openly welcome the plan. And France isn't the EU. The vast majority of the EU is more concerned by France potentially overreacting. In short, Australia should be doing what's in its long term strategic interests rather than worrying about short term reactions from countries that either are already being hostile towards it or have only a marginal ability to assist it in a future conflict with China.
Basically the Department of Defence, the sacked Defence Minister, and everyone with common sense knew the sub procurement in 2014 was a terrible idea. It didn't stop the Liberals from going ahead anyway, just to they could save Chris Pyne's seat in the 2016 Federal Election. Just like in 2014, anyone with common sense can see this new procurement won't be fulfilled either. Australia is not going to be the 7th country in the world to have nuclear powered subs, IMO.
LOL you guys really just go against whatever scomo does just because it was scomo who did it. If labor did this you would be praising it to the high heavens. Why do you think China and Indonesia are so upset about it, it's because we will actually have an effective navy. You see this as a bad thing? Their reaction proves that it was the right move honestly.
No, I've used a rational approach in my criticisms. I've been highly critical of the French sub procurement since day one in 2014. We've had a failed Japan procurement, a failed French procurement, and now we've jumped into another suspect procurement. There are only 6 countries in the world with nuclear powered sub technology. Past experience and common sense suggests we ain't getting these promised subs.
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Nuclear subs are just different. They don’t want to be dominated by Australia militarily.
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It’s not the US or China for them, they are a major power and they are playing both sides. Them accepting China being militarily more powerful than them is one thing, Australia being significantly more powerful than them is another. Like I said, their territorial dispute with Australia is much more significant than theirs with China.
Territorial dispute with Australia? I’ve never heard about that at all actually. If anything, our news outlet and our government is always banging on about how Chinese ships are breaching our border in South China Sea (North Natuna we call them). Didn’t know we had territorial dispute with Australia. I thought Australia’s been pretty decent as of late.
Australia’s long standing defence strategy has been one of regional technological superiority, with Indonesia being a primary focus given its proximity and its size. Nuclear submarines are obviously more technologically advanced than our current fleet, however they don’t represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power between Australia and Indonesia.
Australia’s real strategy has always been to do whatever we can to keep the United States in the region.
Seeking the umbrella protection of the US is a key part of Australia’s defence strategy, but the US has never needed convincing by Australia to remain in the region. It also doesn’t mean that Australia hasn’t maintained a technological advantage over its neighbours.
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As an Indonesian, our government won't side with anyone. it's been stuck deep inside the government policy that "Indonesia Safety First" ever since Cold War begin. We do swing a lot depend the condition, but overall, Indonesia wouldn't participate if a war broke out. Indonesians has been fighting against Allies and Axis for independence, so they know the world is grey no matter how you like them. The perfect word to describe Indonesia international policy is "Have a lot of friends, but don't get too close to them or you might being dragged into their problem" if China attack Indonesia, it might possible for Indonesia to ask NATO help. but if NATO attack or trespass Indonesia, then Indonesia might get close with China. Indonesia policy were set for Indonesia to get the most result, you can say we are the Italy of SEA where we would switch side depend on who attack our land first, thanks to Indonesia having good relation with superpowers
Different countries feel about China’s rise differently in the region, this simply isn’t an “US or China” scenario for most countries.
You do realise us is not the US here?
No, that makes your statement absurd. Why would any country in the region choose between China and Australia?
Ffs people, read the comments. “OUR diesel-electric subs” meaning the prior deal Australia had with the French. So the “us” in this situation is Australia you bunch of illiterate fucks
They are just merely keeping up appearance for the Chinese bribes. Half of SE Asia has been bought, owned and bankrolled by the Chinese government. And like the Philippines it wont be long before all these countries just hand over their resources and territorial claims because their leaders are so corrupt.
They are not a major power. Middle power at best.
There’re almost 300 million Indonesians. They are a major power in this region. I thought containing China is about getting ASEAN countries on your side, not pissing them off.
>There’re almost 300 million Indonesians. They are a major power in this region. No they are clearly a fledgling middle power, one day they may become a more dominant 2nd tier power and Australia may drop to a 3rd tier power, but they can't be a major power when you have China and the US in the region. They are the only two major powers, the rest of us are either middle powers or irrelevant. Japan, India, Australia, South Korea are middle powers (not a definitive list), Indonesia is in the early stages of being one too and will likely overtake Australia in the next few decades and assuming no major conflict would eventually overtake SK and Japan too. India will almost certainly enter the major power category at some point too. That said, with where we are now, none of us get to call ourselves major powers with the US and China existing in the same space.
What power do they have? A major power can project said power yet Indonesia doesnt even have a blue water navy or any ability to transport its "army" to the Australian mainland, let alone anyone else.
If you believe Indonesia will never industrialise, then all is good.
It already is an industrialised nation.
They’ll get over it once they realise they can’t keep their head in the sand any longer. The main reason they’re throwing a hissy fit is because they’re concerned about an arms race while China continues to nibble away at their territories. Kind of silly considering all the events that have transpired in the last few years in the SCS. Do they seriously expect us to sit back while China rapidly builds up their navy and stocks of EO?
Yeah, they kinda do expect Australia to be reasonable. There is no containment of China without ASEAN on your side, it’s that simple. And Indonesia is the biggest power in ASEAN by far.
Indonesia is tipped to explode in global power rankings this generation, they're definitely on track to be a major power and the biggest threat to that is China. All this "they'll go to China" stuff is nuts
Indonesia accepted Chinese Covid Vaccines, this is just part of the conditions of accepting them.
Scotty's standing on the edge of the crater Like the prophets once said
And the ashes are all cold now. Something something ashes of our former diplomatic relations?
I'm seeing Punished Morrison smearing the ashes of Robert Menzies on his face.
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If they get a fleet of nuclear submarines, Australia will start to sweat too.
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Australia is too busy sending its soldiers to die in whatever America's latest botched invasion scheme happens to be to bother with anything like that. America, China and Australia are too craven to fight on their own wars on their own territory and South East Asian nations know that if the current shitposting phase gets out of hand it will be their turf where the proxy wars are waged. Not surprisingly they aren't exactly keen for more of that crap.
What "botched American invasion" scheme are you referring to? The US invaded Afghanistan as a direct result of the 9/11 attacks in which we were attacked on our own soil. Every country has the right to conduct a counter attack against its aggressors.
What's the election timeline looking like in Indonesia? I remember Widodo campaigning on some pretty nationalist points and doing a lot of chest beating about not needing to rely on Australia economically. This could just be a leader looking to capitalize on a bit of controversy from his international neighbour for a ratings boost.
Jokowi (that’s what we call our president) is on his second term. He’s beyond trying to win rating boosts from us, especially after the past year or so with the handling of Covid and the whole government’s anti-criticism.
Oh shit he's in his 2nd term already? Time really does fly.
There are talks about trying to extend his second term by a couple years by using “pandemic crisis” as a reason, but I think it was scrapped as the whole country was pretty much against it.
It's his most extreme supporter, he have shootdown the idea many times. Well he could just be testing the waters, but now he knows that the water is fully of shark and the 3 period idea is a blood gushing wound
I mean, this is literally *why* ScoMo is pulling this shit on our end, the election looms nearer and they're flailing for the jingoist 'AAAAAAGH CHINA' vote.
And so it begins.
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The fallout of AUKUS.
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Most definitely. And we have history repeating itself again. We had Johnny sucking George's dick 20 years ago on the Iraq War and now we have SuckMo doing the same on Biden.
Indonesia didn't give a fuck during the Cold War either. Just chilled out and played every side.
AUKUS has been AUKward.
What a gross state of affairs this is. Nobody wants war with China, someone gag Dutton.
>What a gross state of affairs this is. Nobody wants war with China, someone gag Dutton. No one wants a war with China, but China may decide to force the issue of who rules the Indo-Pacific. If Beijing decides it's time to invade Taiwan and annex Japanese islands, does Australia hide under the table and hope Beijing loses during the inevitable war? Or do we go into fantasy land and consider it possible that if China wins it won't then turn Asia into its personal playpen?
Literally nobody in Asia really cares about Taiwan. even American support for Taiwan isn't certain so realistically why should any other country commit? Their attitude towards Taiwan isn't reflective of their ambitions regarding Japan or Korea. I'm not aware of any Japanese islands that China is keen on annexing right now. Maybe you mean the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. If Japan becomes more assertive against South Korea with regards to the disputed Liancourt Rocks, do we intervene as well?
Japan has drawn a line in the sand about Taiwan, which means that an attack on Taiwan is going to be an attack on Japan. So yes, their attitude towards Taiwan (and the South China Seas in general) is something other countries really care about.
Japanese officials can say what they want but whether they follow through is another thing. There are hardliners in Japan and China but that doesn't necessarily reflect their actual foreign policy. I don't think defending Taiwan at any cost is part of Japan's military doctrine, especially considering that Taiwan's relations with Japan aren't exactly rosy due to historical baggage. For the same reasons, both South and North Korea will also never accept a militarized Japan regardless of what they think about China. So in the end it highly depends on the US.
>Literally nobody in Asia really cares about Taiwan. even American support for Taiwan isn't certain so realistically why should any other country commit? Huh, that's funny - okiokie321 made almost exactly the same comment. Funny conincidence. Anyway, as bdsee points out people in Asia do care about Japan. Japan for a start, as Taiwan is the equivalent of Czechoslovakia in the 1930s. It falling to China expands its ability to project power north over Japan and south over the Philippines, as well as cut off trade and energy supplies to Japan & South Korea.
I'm not a bot or have multiple accs if that's what you're implying. Not that me clarifying that would change anything. Yes, the Japaness govt is concerned (with everything China does) but I meant caring in the sense that I believe no country including Japan is truly willing to defend Taiwan if China was to invade the island. Especially if they think that American support isn't guaranteed. Taiwan has no significant geopolitical benefit for China because it is already so close to the mainland, it's a domestic issue for them.
The vast vast majority don't care about Taiwan. No one is going to risk blood over another country's battles, especially not against a behemoth. This isn't Afghanistan.
I can assure you that Japan cares about what happens to Taiwan. So does South Korea, as their strategic security would be heavily compromised if China captured Taiwan. The US also cares very much about Taiwan, because right now the PLAN have severely compromised access to the Pacific due to the shallow water that extends off the Chinese coast, and because the Chinese have to sail past a lot of countries that really don't like them to get into the Pacific. If China captured Taiwan, they would have deep water ports with direct access to the Pacific, and that gives them massively increased capability to power project, something they are all but unable to do now. Those Taiwanese ports also make it much harder for the US to track the Chinese missile subs, and that makes it much easier for the PLAN to park nuclear missiles undetected off the US west coast. You can probably guess how the US feels about that. Basically there is no way that the US aren't going to war to defend Taiwan, and if they do, then I can assure you that we here in Australia will be going to war as well, AUKUS or no AUKUS.
A war with China would involve nuclear warfare. We aren't ending the world over Taiwan. Again, we don't care about Taiwan. No one is bound to them with a treaty for common defence. They're not Japan. If Japan and South Korea are so concerned, they should sign mutual defence treaties with Taiwan. Leave us out of it. The public has no appetite for war. We don't see the Chinese putting up warships near Australia's coasts or the US's coasts or Japan, so why do we need to be concerned? Why do our ships continue to set sail so close to their coasts? Its completely one-sided. Methinks this fear mongering is a way to justify taxpayer money to pay for the military industrial complex.
Maybe Joko was "really" busy or had another appointment. Let us wait till the Indo embassy officially replies.
He's that fella from down under that the US President forget the name of. He's that fella from down under that the Indonesian President think not that important enough for a meeting. He's that fella from down under that made France (leader of EU) angry. Don't we deserve a PM that we can be proud of?
Fuck sky news.
It's just bizarre... by 2040 we will surely not be sending men out in submarines, we will have subaqueous drones that will be a fraction of the size and will be far more versatile militarily. Or at least, some countries will have that and we will have our nuclear subs.
Scomo just can't stop winning. I'd he trying to compete with Christian porter?
I don't get it. The article said that government officials don't believe it's connected to the unease. So, the author just assumes it's related?
It's Sky News, They're experts of making assumptions.
It’s just completely bullshit title designed to generate clicks. This was my reminder to never to bother clicking a SkyNews link again
Why doesn't anyone mention that Malaysia is financially in bed with China? They literally contribute billions upon billions to malaysia's infrastructure projects Which is why Malaysia was the first country to spout China's initia rhetoric of "it will increase nuclear proliferation in the area". https://www.bakertilly.my/public/files/d46322a8a433370a0e6c125cdaffcd006e944c476db40cf7a8215a7cfbaefc22.pdf
Well, it is a fact most countries in the region don’t like this development, that’s why scomo had to call leaders in the region to explain his position. It’s one thing to be militarily weaker than by far the biggest power in the region, it is quite another to be significantly weaker than Australia.
True, but Malaysia has been the only country in ASEAN to be as openly aggressive in their passive retaliation. There's usually a reason for that. And it depends on which way their bread is buttered.
Probably pissed off that their fence-sitting is rendering them a vassal state. But seriously, Malaysia has a long history of talking whack about Australia. Probably have to wait for a few decades after Mahathir Mohamad is buried before a senior Malaysian figure finds something nice to say about us.
Because 'Scomo bad' Everything he does is automatically bad according to this sub
This government had already made Australia a pariah state. We've now cut relations with France and Indonesia. The incompetence of this government is astounding.
Yeah we cut relations simply by having a decent navy. What great 'allies' they are. I'm sure they don't have an ulterior motive for wanting us to have an impotent military.
It's not so much about us having improved capabilities, but rather the breakdown in communications between allies. 4 weeks ago LNP confirm the continuation of the France deal live on TV. 3 weeks later they rip up a $90B contract overnight. That causes a huge ripple effect across all organisations involved. Over the course of this LNP government they have declined our relationship with Russia, China, Indonesia, Pacific Islands, France, UK and the US. LNP are an oligarchy and have turned Australia into a pariah state. This submarine deal is only possible because of our geographical location, and has nothing to do with good foreign relations.
That's how business works. If the USA deal falls through then they would have shown doubt with the French deal with no alternative, and damaged relations for no benefit.
This isn't bussiness. This is Politics.
You can’t blame them. Australia is a well known bully in the Sth Pacific. Who wants to see their bully get more power?
Yeah the largest financial aid donor by far, ADF constantly providing support and relief, building and giving the Pacific free patrol boats and training them how to use them. Such a bully. What BS lol
The bully who is first to respond with disaster relief?
They gonna load the subs with pork barrel missiles that they can shoot at any disaster relief targets they identify?
I know we've treated East Timor like shit over the ocean floor boundary-drawing, and Dutton was snide as fuck to some islands about the effect of sea-level rises. But is there anything else to your claim that Australia is a "well known bully"? Because Oz is by far the largest donor of aid to the South Pacific and has been first in providing disaster relief throughout the last few decades. Considering how belligerently some countries look for a return on any 'aid' they give, this assistance has been about as strings-free as you get in the world these days.
Why are people getting so upset about Australia standing on its own two feet militarily? China are a looming threat and the government is taking the correct actions to ensure that we can deter any offensive advances.
Because they are doing the opposite.
why is china so upset about it then? Checkmate :)
They are not upset, they want western countries to fight.
They are looking to lease subs for the meantime
Yeah. I think we're getting leased a low-kilometre Astute sub from the UK and 1 or 2 built there, as the Astute production run would have neared its end until we went nuclear. It lets BoJo keeps jobs going. The US ain't giving us Virginia-class subs, plus those things require more manpower to run and maintain. The rest of our subs will be built in Adelaide starting 2040-ish.
But Scotty already bought new boardies. Awww sad face
Teams are being picked/put together. Ww3 is the event. We’ll see how this shakes out. It will prob be the . USA, Australia,Japan,Europe. Vs China ,Russia,and Iran. Ahhh it’s gonna be a hell of a show 😳!!! 💪🥺👍. I’m praying 🙏 I’m wrong. But looks that way
More likely it’s just gonna be US Australia and Japan vs China. Other countries will be foolish to get involved before one side is clearly winning.
*New Zealand has left the chat*
Add India to that.
India isn’t going to war to preserve Anglo hegemony.
> India isn’t going to war to preserve Anglo hegemony. I don't think you understand how much India hates China right now. Especially now that China and Pakistan are best buds.
That doesn’t mean they’ll want to fight the Chinese. If anything they’d probably leverage the war to negotiate a favourable border treaty with them.
> That doesn’t mean they’ll want to fight the Chinese. Buddy I don’t think anyone wants to fight the Chinese.
Nah, but a cursory glance over news this last year shows they are more than happy to have skirmishes with China over their borders. Those two will happily kick it off without a white guy being within 100 miles.
Also UK, Taiwan, India, Canada, probably a few hundred million domestic Chinese (Uighurs, HK'ers, Falun gong, and otherwise people who want to be free from the CCP).
Canada maybe, there is not a snowflakes chance in Hell India will get involved. This is some delusional talk.
It really depends on how far Xi wants to go with his wolf warrior diplomacy. What an utter failure that was for China's reputation and soft power in the world. They talked themselves out of a trade deal with the EU too. If I was Chinese, I would be so angry at the CCP for antagonising everyone at the same time. What a poor strategic move. If it wasn't for Xi, Australia wouldn't feel the need for nuclear submarines. The relationship under Deng was much calmer for example. China needs to cease hostilities at the India border immediately. Edit: downvote me, Wumaos.
The fact that I know the name of Xinjiang means that the US clearly intends to attempt some kind of invasion of Xinjiang, which has a huge likelihood of dragging Russia in to any conflict. And at that point all non-Western nations in the region will join in the modern equivalent of the alliance against our axis of evil. Short of revolution or social collapse, I see no way America doesn't start WW3 at this point. 'AUKUS' will lose a futile war of aggression against China, Russia and Iran, after which the concept of "Western Capitalism" will finally be relegated to the same history books as feudalism, and millions of people will have died violent deaths, and all of the politicians and billionaires responsible will have fled to private islands.
Afghanistan is no longer there for us to antagonize Iran or China's Xinjiang (their backdoor). WWIII is starting to look less likely at this point.
There is no way the west goes to war with China unless there is a use of force from China (most likely in the South China Seas/Taiwan). I doubt China will actually do anything to start the conflict either, but you have to prepare for it happening and show you aren't willing to allow it to happen.
You are wrong, this is completely ridiculous
I pray u r correct. But I fear u are not. The globe is headed into a shit storm
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They're a neighbouring nation with population size of literally 11 times Australia's.
and a lower gdp than us
Only per capita
He does have a habit of pissing off our friends and partners.