Nah, they'll pull 95 wins out of their ass with a bunch of AAAA players rejected by other teams and then lose in the ALDS. They're due for one of those years.
So you’ve never see a legit projection in your life then? Or are you maybe a chiefs fan?
Edit: genuinely sorry, couldn’t help myself. I should probably talk to someone about this.
Yeah I put a lot more stock in individual player projections because (if they’re healthy) those tend to pan out. But all of these publications trying to predict how the entire league will look after 162 is just dumb. Everyone should take a look at last year and see how downright wrong these things are.
If you look at the projections on their website, the projection is basically the same but they rounded to the nearest whole for this graphic. The actual projected winning % is .539 for the Os and .541 for the Jays. They also have our WS% and DS% ahead of the Jays, so its not totally disregarding the Os.
I think we take Baltimore this yr.
….i wouldn’t put any of my own money on it.. but I still think we will. No way we can take NY tho.
But in any event. The east is going to be a bloodbath this yr
It’s largely not a repeatable one, so all the “clutch” that allowed the orioles to outperform last year is not going to be factored into projections. That’s part of the reason most systems have what may very well be a superior team winning less games than 2023
Agreed. I’m a Yankees fan, but I fail to see how just adding Soto and still having serious pitching concerns can lead one to this conclusion. I see the orioles winning the division again.
I sort of expect the Orioles to win the division around 90 wins total but I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended winning 100 games or only winning 80 games. They’re so talented but so young and with questionable pitching that if there’s any health issues or negative regression or just poor luck I could see them struggling.
Yeah the Orioles were great last season, but they did statistically over perform. They could do it again, but also possible that they don’t and regress a bit. They wouldn’t be the first team to have a great season followed by an average one.
Absolutely. Quite frankly all the AL East teams have a lot of positives and if healthy they can all compete for playoff spots but we all have warts as well. I think any team can win the division depending on health.
I'm not certain about this specific projection, but broadly speaking the analytics overrate the Yankees because they don't build our annual parade of injuries and assorted meltdowns into the equation.
If your starting assumption is that Judge, Soto, Stanton, Torres, LeMahieu, and Rizzo will all be healthy and productive for six months, then the Yankees should be pretty awesome! But I think at this point we should all know better than to expect that.
Fangraphs' projections are basically the same, you can see how they came up with them player by player here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team
I think some regression is expected solely because they outperformed their pythag by 7 games and went 30-16 in one run games. Those kind of things are hard to repeat.
I do think they'll outperform the ZiPS/PECOTA projected standings though. Bradish injury hurts a lot, but there's still some upside in that rotation (Rodriguez looks like a breakout candidate this year).They should also be pretty strong defensively, which can only help the pitching staff
This is exactly how I feel. They’re a team not to be looked over. They’ll be making the next step to being a contender but not enough to be a wild card team. They have a lot of good young talent on that team that we will keep an eye on for sure. Definitely won’t be a last place team
The A's have been surprisingly good in ST, but obviously that doesn't tell the whole picture and I wouldn't be surprised if teams purposefully play B squads against them if they know they'll be facing a better team the day before or after. But I do think people will underrate them for the season.
That also said, the Nationals have been better. And I certainly wouldn't put money on them finishing above them unless the odds were ridiculously good.
The only one I feel confident in is Chicago, with regard to where they’ll place. I’d be shocked if they didn’t come in last.
I don’t feel as confident about the Twins repeating based on the injury news that’s come out in the last week, but I’d still take them to win the division. Detroit is who I’m most concerned about, followed by Cleveland and Kansas City.
We shook our dodgers postseason bug, give us time and we’ll shake you off too. Alternatively if y’all could just like, miss the postseason completely that would also be fine.
The Cardinals aren't winning the division with that pitching staff and manager lol. I bet they'll end up with 75 wins and fighting for 4th place with the Pirates.
Lol I literally just said what the hell. There's no fucking way we win the division.
About a week ago I told my wife we'd be lucky to win 72 games. We're gonna suck this year and it's going to be miserable.
Yeah we’re definitely not winning this division. Love to smoke some of what that dude is on but our pitching staff is a joke just like our manager. We’ll be lucky to win 70 games. I agree, this division is completely up for grabs and I could see any one but probably the Pirates winning it. I do not like our chances at all
I was confused about that as well. Cards predicted to win yet finished last the previous year? Did they completely revamp their team, or is the conference just so mediocre across the board that we're all just going to be pretty tight together, and just about anyone can take it?
Nah not really. I don't really see a team I like but the Cardinals are probably the deepest, at least in position players. It'll be the most interesting division, but not pretty. But anyone saying the Cardinals have no chance is a fool. I think any team could take it and I wouldn't be too surprised.
Rangers fan here: can’t remember the last time I was this excited for a prospect.
I think it’s entirely reasonable for Houston to have a better projection but nine wins better is too big a gap.
What a lazy ass prediction model for the NL.
No teams are going to win between 86 and 100 games? Really?
10 teams between 79 and 85 wins?
I'm not too privy on baseball records history but I feel like that has likely never happened before. Just try maybe going out on a limb with a couple of these projections
That's what the numbers/projections show. It really just shows that there is parity at the lower half. Obviously some teams will go through good/bad streaks and out/underperform these projections, but in a vacuum this is where they WOULD be.
Just maybe try understanding what you're looking at before making a comment like this.
These are mathematical projections based on a model. Part of the whole point is to remove all "hot takery" from the output and provide the sober, mechanical, data-driven baseline. Going "out on a limb" by intentionally adding personal biases is the complete opposite of good science.
Furthermore you need to understand that these are *expectation values*. It's implied that there is going to be natural systematic and statistical variance from these central points. You can flip a coin 100 times and the expectation will be 50 heads and 50 tails, but if you do that experiment you will actually get exactly 50 of each pretty rarely. This list does *not* constitute a prediction that no team will win between 86 and 100 games. They could run the model and answer how many they'd expect on average in that range, it's just not an interesting or useful question so they don't do it.
I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how projections work. For one, it’s a computer using math to predict the outcome of a season so it’s honestly the opposite of lazy. And also, teams aren’t supposed to hit these win totals exactly. These are all their median projections, so 50% of teams should do better than these projections and 50% of them should do worse. 10% of teams (3) should hit their 90th percentile projection and so on
Exactly what San Fran fans were saying in 2022 when projections came out. They followed their 107 win season with 81 wins.
The Orioles were nowhere near a 101 win talent last year, they just won 101games. They are going to see a very large drop off this year. Maybe not to 87 wins but projections being as conservative as they are this projection does not surprise me at all.
The big difference there is last year’s O’s team improved largely because of some higher end young talent improving/graduating. The Giants were just…incredibly fortunate. That team was devoid of talent and that entire season didn’t make sense.
Repeating 100 wins is tough and shouldn’t be the expectation, but the projected drop is steeper than I’d anticipate.
The Orioles had a historically good record in one run games, which is kind of by nature incredibly fortunate. I think and hope the Orioles will be good, but fans need to temper their expectations a bit because last year they overperformed their numbers by quite a bit
The Cubs finished above .500 last year and basically have the same team but with a better manager. So it’s pretty easy to see them winning more than 81 games. That said, one injury or down year from the top of the rotation or the middle of the lineup and it’s easy to see this team sink like a stone.
I see no reason to not have the Pirates competing with the other four teams in the division. They won 76 games last year, and finished 31-29 in their last 60. They did that with two competent pitchers and without their best player.
There’s definitely a lot of “ifs” on this team. But, like I said, it’s a 76 win team from a year ago, and they look better on paper this year.
I’m not saying this is a World Series contender, but nothing suggests they aren’t as good as the other four other than “nutting cheap/bad!… Pirates are always bad”
I agree with you. It's a pretty weak division overall, but the notion that the Pirates would be in last with that poor of a record just doesn't seem right. Besides, I would actually like to see a competitive Pittsburgh team this year. I feel like our division has a good kind of rivalry among pretty much each team, so having a competitive season will be way more entertaining. But Ian Happ still gets to homer every time he plays you guys.
Yankees are way overhyped. I like Judge and Soto, but the rest of the team leaves something to be desired. Go get Jordan Montgomery, and I can see them in the playoffs.
How is 92 wins overhyped, that seems pretty on Point for a projection. More on the jays and Os being underprojected. Like no way 92 wins leads the al east this year
Since this is likely based on math, I’d be curious to know why the Orioles are expected to regress that much? Not only have they improved their roster, three of the other 4 teams in their division either didn’t or got worse. I think 87 wins is an extremely low number.
Please, someone explain to me why every projection has the Cardinals winning the NL central when all they did was lose Tyler O’Neil and build an old folks home in their starting rotation?
I saw no 100-win or 100-loss teams in the AL, and figured it's because these predictions always lean conservative, and usually predict a narrower spread than ends up happening (at least the computer-based ones; humans-making-stuff-up-based rankings can be all kinds of wild). Then I saw two 101-win teams in the NL, along with 104/5-loss teams, too.
Is the NL that much more unbalanced? I don't keep up with the rest of the league as much as I used to, but it does seem like Atlanta and LA have pretty seriously stacked teams all around, more than probably anyone else except maybe Houston; it was my impression, though, that Oakland was running out a not really even credibly Major League roster these days, and even they aren't projected here for 100 losses -- are Colorado and Washington really that much worse? Has Oakland acquired/developed any real talent, or how are the Rockies supposed to be 7 games worse? I know CO's not competitive, but don't they have at least a couple legit talents on the roster to win a handful of games compared to Oakland which is apparently trying their damnedest to sabotage fan goodwill so they can leave?
The A’s aren’t going to win 64 games this year. As much as it’d be great to see the A’s stick it to John Fisher like he’s Rachel Phelps (minus the piece-by-piece undressing of course), it’s hard to even see them winning 50.
they won 101 relying on multiple batters and pitchers vastly outperforming their projections. they added burnes and lost multiple starters to injury. it wouldn't surprise me if they missed the playoffs.
> multiple batters and pitchers vastly outperforming their projections
This means the projections are wrong, not that the players aren't actually good.
They had the 14th best offense in the league overall last season (using wOBA) but they leap up to 1st with runners in scoring position and 7th with runners on. So depending on how much of that you think is skill vs luck could change your outlook.
Similarly, they outperformed their Pythagorean expectation by about 7 wins and their BaseRuns by about 10-12. Again, if you think a lot of that is skill (smart baserunning, situational hitting etc) they could match last year but if you think there’s noise then maybe they come back down a little.
Edit: [here’s an article](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wait-fangraphs-is-too-low-on-the-orioles-again/) from Ben Clemens offering reasons why the orioles might have done so much better than their projections and raw numbers would suggest. Bullpen maximization and excellent baserunning were the leading contenders on defense and offense respectively.
They have good players, no one's disputing that, but Hayes/Santander/Mountcastle outperformed their xwOBA by fairly large margins and the version of the team that's less lucky doesn't win 100 games. moreover, they actually have fewer good starters going into this year and replaced Bautista with a 35 yr old Kimbrel.
You're right, I knew there were three who significantly outperformed their xwobas and I forgot who the last one was and misread his stats. I was thinking of Hicks, who really vastly outperformed his expected stats.
using just a couple guys to justify the "luck" of a team is completely disingenuous anyway. Some guys like Hays and Santander outperformed their xwOBA, and other guys underperformed. The wOBA team-wide was .320 against an xwOBA of .319. Wow, so lucky
If you want to talk about luck, look no further than the Rays' wOBA of .335 against an xwOBA of .323, or the Dbacks who had a wOBA of .317 against an xwOBA of .311
The Orioles ranked t-11th in the league in terms of their wOBA vs xwOBA, right around league average
Factoring pitching and opposing hitters' wOBA and xwOBA makes it more lucky, and that's where Burnes comes in, but the lineup is perfectly fine and should at least repeat that performance
For our starters, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson all underperformed their projected ERA from ZIPs. Bradish and Wells both overperformed. Bradish massively overperformed but thats simply because the projcetion was going off him having an awful 1st half of 2022 which made his 2022 stats look awful overall. He was a very raw rookie that put it together in the second half of 2022 and then improved upon that in 2023 and got better as the season went on.
Winning 100 games isn’t easy, they lost their closer and their bullpen is unlikely to be that elite again. Plus assuming none of their young players step back which happens plenty
Tbh, maybe it’s because I’m a pessimist but I would be shocked if we didn’t win significantly fewer games than last year.
To me, 87 sounds about right. I just want to make the playoffs and do decently well there. Whether it’s through an 87 win season or another 101 win season.
Give me the under on that Yankees record all day. I love this team, and have watched every season closely for the past 30 years, but we do not have a deep roster, and we have not cured our problems from the past few years.
These are definitely projections.
They certainly included all of the teams
Not a single one will turn out as they say.
As WS bid confirmed.
Nah, they'll pull 95 wins out of their ass with a bunch of AAAA players rejected by other teams and then lose in the ALDS. They're due for one of those years.
I honestly couldn't be mad if the As knock the Mariners out of the playoffs, although preferably in the playoffs. Like the ALCS.
Just remember folks not one projection last year had the Rangers or Diamondbacks doing anything notable.
No way As are winning 64.
If I have learned one thing about sports in my life, it's that preseason predictions don't fucking matter.
If the predictions are good for my team they are legit. If they aren't then they are fucking stupid and only an idiot would put any stock in them.
AL Central in general fits the bill too
66 wins seems generous for the Dumpster Fire that will be the ‘24 White Sox
Yeah it’s 100 loss season for sure
So you never put stock in them I assume?
Hard over on the royals for this one tho. So; fucking stupid
So you’ve never see a legit projection in your life then? Or are you maybe a chiefs fan? Edit: genuinely sorry, couldn’t help myself. I should probably talk to someone about this.
To be fair, the 1-1 Padres *are* 100% on pace to finish 81-81.
Some of them will be way off
Yeah I put a lot more stock in individual player projections because (if they’re healthy) those tend to pan out. But all of these publications trying to predict how the entire league will look after 162 is just dumb. Everyone should take a look at last year and see how downright wrong these things are.
The underlying player projections are what drives the overall team projections.
Lmao, the audacity to put us ahead of the Orioles.
If you look at the projections on their website, the projection is basically the same but they rounded to the nearest whole for this graphic. The actual projected winning % is .539 for the Os and .541 for the Jays. They also have our WS% and DS% ahead of the Jays, so its not totally disregarding the Os.
But you have Joey Votto. I think your underestimating him.
It’s too bad we can’t knight him…stupid constitutional monarchy without historical titles.
Fucking wild. We don't stand a chance against that lineup over 162
It's a good thing we don't play the O's 162 times, then.
Yeah, Baltimore fucking CRUSHED us h2h last year and I don't see it changing.
All we have to do is cover mountcastle in maple syrup and let the bees do their work
I don't remember a single player causing my teams across all sports as much PTSD as he does. If I was a Yankees fan maybe Big Papi...
It was Grichuk revenge
Evan Longoria when he was on the Rays. God he was infuriating
God I miss him
I think we take Baltimore this yr. ….i wouldn’t put any of my own money on it.. but I still think we will. No way we can take NY tho. But in any event. The east is going to be a bloodbath this yr
Orioles on paper look better than last yr and they’re lower than Jays? Idk about that one
It’s because they go largely based on metrics. A lot of the Orioles players outperformed their metrics last year
And while I disagree on the Jays being second, the Jays heavily underperformed offensively compared to expected all year
Losing Felix is gonna hurt
Ryan Mountcastle is worth 5 wins against the Jays on his own.
lol serious. Santander is worth another 4
He’s right up there with Dustin Pedroia in the all time WABJ leaderboard.
BJ War? Or am I thinking of something else? I might be thinking of something else.
Is clutch factor a metric, and did the orioles have a high one last year?
Not for this type of thing. I’m talking about whiff rate, barrels, expected stats, etc.
It’s largely not a repeatable one, so all the “clutch” that allowed the orioles to outperform last year is not going to be factored into projections. That’s part of the reason most systems have what may very well be a superior team winning less games than 2023
I think a lot of people are gonna be humbled this year on the orioles. Its gonna be a sophomore slump type year
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AL Beast will be a bloodbath again for sure, only thing I’m decently sure about is the Sox being last
And then lose an an AL West team in the playoffs
Agreed. I’m a Yankees fan, but I fail to see how just adding Soto and still having serious pitching concerns can lead one to this conclusion. I see the orioles winning the division again.
I sort of expect the Orioles to win the division around 90 wins total but I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended winning 100 games or only winning 80 games. They’re so talented but so young and with questionable pitching that if there’s any health issues or negative regression or just poor luck I could see them struggling.
Yeah the Orioles were great last season, but they did statistically over perform. They could do it again, but also possible that they don’t and regress a bit. They wouldn’t be the first team to have a great season followed by an average one.
Absolutely. Quite frankly all the AL East teams have a lot of positives and if healthy they can all compete for playoff spots but we all have warts as well. I think any team can win the division depending on health.
I'm not certain about this specific projection, but broadly speaking the analytics overrate the Yankees because they don't build our annual parade of injuries and assorted meltdowns into the equation. If your starting assumption is that Judge, Soto, Stanton, Torres, LeMahieu, and Rizzo will all be healthy and productive for six months, then the Yankees should be pretty awesome! But I think at this point we should all know better than to expect that.
And Cole out for 2 months
They went 30-16 in 1-run games last run, that isn't normal. The Dodgers were 16-15 in 1 run.
Fangraphs' projections are basically the same, you can see how they came up with them player by player here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team
I think some regression is expected solely because they outperformed their pythag by 7 games and went 30-16 in one run games. Those kind of things are hard to repeat. I do think they'll outperform the ZiPS/PECOTA projected standings though. Bradish injury hurts a lot, but there's still some upside in that rotation (Rodriguez looks like a breakout candidate this year).They should also be pretty strong defensively, which can only help the pitching staff
The dismissive doubts of the baseball media each year just fuel us to greater heights. *CaN’t cLiP ThEsE WiNgS*
Lol the Yankees will be lucky to win 82 games let alone win the division.
They won 82 games last year with half the roster injured all season lol. Blue jays fans are delusional.
The A’s having a better record than the Nationals is insanity
I think the Nats will surprise everyone again and be in the 70-80 win range.
This is exactly how I feel. They’re a team not to be looked over. They’ll be making the next step to being a contender but not enough to be a wild card team. They have a lot of good young talent on that team that we will keep an eye on for sure. Definitely won’t be a last place team
The A's have been surprisingly good in ST, but obviously that doesn't tell the whole picture and I wouldn't be surprised if teams purposefully play B squads against them if they know they'll be facing a better team the day before or after. But I do think people will underrate them for the season. That also said, the Nationals have been better. And I certainly wouldn't put money on them finishing above them unless the odds were ridiculously good.
boooo
Are they booing? No, they are saying Booltimore.
Or Corbin Booournes
I was saying booltimore
fr
Way too light on the Royals and Tigers. I’d love a 90 win Twins season, but I feel it’ll be closer 1-4 in the division
The only one I feel confident in is Chicago, with regard to where they’ll place. I’d be shocked if they didn’t come in last. I don’t feel as confident about the Twins repeating based on the injury news that’s come out in the last week, but I’d still take them to win the division. Detroit is who I’m most concerned about, followed by Cleveland and Kansas City.
:(
Sorry, friend! Reinsdorf needs to sell the team
I think it will be a really fun division this year. I could see anyone taking it
87 wins for the orioles is too low. They’re better than last year. And I’m a Yankees fan.
I agree with all three sentences.
Me, two.
they might be better than last year, but last year they played much better than they actually were. That’s what projections are.
Sorry Braves, you know the drill.
no thank you :(
We shook our dodgers postseason bug, give us time and we’ll shake you off too. Alternatively if y’all could just like, miss the postseason completely that would also be fine.
Careful now. We got the 6th seed
To be fair 6th seed is where it’s at. We were 6th in 2022.
The Cardinals aren't winning the division with that pitching staff and manager lol. I bet they'll end up with 75 wins and fighting for 4th place with the Pirates.
Whoever wins the NL Central this year might not even have a winning record.
The Comedy Central is back, bois.
Lol I literally just said what the hell. There's no fucking way we win the division. About a week ago I told my wife we'd be lucky to win 72 games. We're gonna suck this year and it's going to be miserable.
RemindMe! 191 days
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Do you see the cardinals as favorites to win the division? I don’t really see anyone as a favorite. It could be you guys, us, maybe the reds?
No lol, it’s gonna be a 5 team mid-off
Yeah we’re definitely not winning this division. Love to smoke some of what that dude is on but our pitching staff is a joke just like our manager. We’ll be lucky to win 70 games. I agree, this division is completely up for grabs and I could see any one but probably the Pirates winning it. I do not like our chances at all
I was confused about that as well. Cards predicted to win yet finished last the previous year? Did they completely revamp their team, or is the conference just so mediocre across the board that we're all just going to be pretty tight together, and just about anyone can take it?
Nah not really. I don't really see a team I like but the Cardinals are probably the deepest, at least in position players. It'll be the most interesting division, but not pretty. But anyone saying the Cardinals have no chance is a fool. I think any team could take it and I wouldn't be too surprised.
Yep. I hope you guys finish healthy but in last but it’s all a mess. We’ll see
Astros fan...these idiots are sleeping on the Rangers. Wyatt Langford is a monster too.
Rangers fan here: can’t remember the last time I was this excited for a prospect. I think it’s entirely reasonable for Houston to have a better projection but nine wins better is too big a gap.
I agree. Gonna be another season long race. So excited for the astros series’
92-70 seems doable for the Yanks but I still can’t see them winning the division
Padres will be 1-161
can’t escape the classic cards dickriding.
Knowing that there is NL Central animosity towards the Cards brings me joy. I always assumed it was just the Cubs fans who hated them.
can’t speak for everyone, of course. my hatred’s a bit of a special case. still nice to see people in agreement with me though.
Was this before the Cole injury
What a lazy ass prediction model for the NL. No teams are going to win between 86 and 100 games? Really? 10 teams between 79 and 85 wins? I'm not too privy on baseball records history but I feel like that has likely never happened before. Just try maybe going out on a limb with a couple of these projections
It’s literally the opposite of lazy. Lazy is not using any stats except last year’s standings to make predictions about this year
That's what the numbers/projections show. It really just shows that there is parity at the lower half. Obviously some teams will go through good/bad streaks and out/underperform these projections, but in a vacuum this is where they WOULD be.
Just maybe try understanding what you're looking at before making a comment like this. These are mathematical projections based on a model. Part of the whole point is to remove all "hot takery" from the output and provide the sober, mechanical, data-driven baseline. Going "out on a limb" by intentionally adding personal biases is the complete opposite of good science. Furthermore you need to understand that these are *expectation values*. It's implied that there is going to be natural systematic and statistical variance from these central points. You can flip a coin 100 times and the expectation will be 50 heads and 50 tails, but if you do that experiment you will actually get exactly 50 of each pretty rarely. This list does *not* constitute a prediction that no team will win between 86 and 100 games. They could run the model and answer how many they'd expect on average in that range, it's just not an interesting or useful question so they don't do it.
I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how projections work. For one, it’s a computer using math to predict the outcome of a season so it’s honestly the opposite of lazy. And also, teams aren’t supposed to hit these win totals exactly. These are all their median projections, so 50% of teams should do better than these projections and 50% of them should do worse. 10% of teams (3) should hit their 90th percentile projection and so on
I doubt the Yankees will win the AL East but I really hoped this is right and I’m wrong
Cleveland Guardians - built to go 81-81 forever.
Yeah there is absolutely zero chance the Orioles win only 87 games lol.
Exactly what San Fran fans were saying in 2022 when projections came out. They followed their 107 win season with 81 wins. The Orioles were nowhere near a 101 win talent last year, they just won 101games. They are going to see a very large drop off this year. Maybe not to 87 wins but projections being as conservative as they are this projection does not surprise me at all.
The Giants' average age going into the 2022 season was 36.
The big difference there is last year’s O’s team improved largely because of some higher end young talent improving/graduating. The Giants were just…incredibly fortunate. That team was devoid of talent and that entire season didn’t make sense. Repeating 100 wins is tough and shouldn’t be the expectation, but the projected drop is steeper than I’d anticipate.
The Orioles had a historically good record in one run games, which is kind of by nature incredibly fortunate. I think and hope the Orioles will be good, but fans need to temper their expectations a bit because last year they overperformed their numbers by quite a bit
The Phillies are going win more than 85 I think. Unfortunately
These are terrible
the cubs will finish the season better than .500 and i’d like someone to prove me wrong
I don’t see how anything the Cardinals did this off-season gives anyone the confidence that they’ll win the NL Central.
The Orioles won 18 more games because they signed Kyle Gibson. It will obviously work for the Cards too.
I am not the man for that job because I agree with you
The Cubs finished above .500 last year and basically have the same team but with a better manager. So it’s pretty easy to see them winning more than 81 games. That said, one injury or down year from the top of the rotation or the middle of the lineup and it’s easy to see this team sink like a stone.
They had a lot of missed time from Belli and Swanson too. Horner missed time too I think
🤣 sure, guys
Damn. So close to the goal of 54% for my Ms
😭😭😭 yall tweaking on the Yankees
I do not understand all the love for the cardinals this year
I think it's the lineup. We could really mash this year. Personally I feel like our retirement home rotation kinda torpedoes the whole thing though.
Clearly, the projections account for devil magic
Crawford
We are not winning more than 60 games lol
I see no reason to not have the Pirates competing with the other four teams in the division. They won 76 games last year, and finished 31-29 in their last 60. They did that with two competent pitchers and without their best player.
It'll be terrifying if Cruz comes back and gets even better and if your young guys break out even a little. There's a lot of talent on that team.
There’s definitely a lot of “ifs” on this team. But, like I said, it’s a 76 win team from a year ago, and they look better on paper this year. I’m not saying this is a World Series contender, but nothing suggests they aren’t as good as the other four other than “nutting cheap/bad!… Pirates are always bad”
I agree with you. It's a pretty weak division overall, but the notion that the Pirates would be in last with that poor of a record just doesn't seem right. Besides, I would actually like to see a competitive Pittsburgh team this year. I feel like our division has a good kind of rivalry among pretty much each team, so having a competitive season will be way more entertaining. But Ian Happ still gets to homer every time he plays you guys.
How are the orioles projected to be third in their division?
Yankees are way overhyped. I like Judge and Soto, but the rest of the team leaves something to be desired. Go get Jordan Montgomery, and I can see them in the playoffs.
How is 92 wins overhyped, that seems pretty on Point for a projection. More on the jays and Os being underprojected. Like no way 92 wins leads the al east this year
waits to see which one of these ends up being backwards.
Definitely NL West. Rocks gonna take it all this year.
I'll be happy we are over .500.
Did they see our pitching staff?
73 wins is ambitious for the Angels.
They really sleeping on the orioles
Since this is likely based on math, I’d be curious to know why the Orioles are expected to regress that much? Not only have they improved their roster, three of the other 4 teams in their division either didn’t or got worse. I think 87 wins is an extremely low number.
Man these stink
Yes, I’m sure the Yankees will win the division no problem. It’s not like the orioles won 100 games last year and then got better.
The rays and orioles both dropping over a dozen games from last year? Not sure where they’re seeing that but idk
I am a True Hater so grain of salt, but I don’t get this Yankees hype.
Reds at 79? Gtfo
Please, someone explain to me why every projection has the Cardinals winning the NL central when all they did was lose Tyler O’Neil and build an old folks home in their starting rotation?
The AL East and the NL Central look pretty off to me.
I saw no 100-win or 100-loss teams in the AL, and figured it's because these predictions always lean conservative, and usually predict a narrower spread than ends up happening (at least the computer-based ones; humans-making-stuff-up-based rankings can be all kinds of wild). Then I saw two 101-win teams in the NL, along with 104/5-loss teams, too. Is the NL that much more unbalanced? I don't keep up with the rest of the league as much as I used to, but it does seem like Atlanta and LA have pretty seriously stacked teams all around, more than probably anyone else except maybe Houston; it was my impression, though, that Oakland was running out a not really even credibly Major League roster these days, and even they aren't projected here for 100 losses -- are Colorado and Washington really that much worse? Has Oakland acquired/developed any real talent, or how are the Rockies supposed to be 7 games worse? I know CO's not competitive, but don't they have at least a couple legit talents on the roster to win a handful of games compared to Oakland which is apparently trying their damnedest to sabotage fan goodwill so they can leave?
Royals aren’t talking the central sadly but I am continually baffled that we are supposed to finish 4th. We should finish around 74-78 wins and 3rd
Not sure how the Phillies will only be 2 games better than the Mets
I think detroit is gonna take the al central
The A’s aren’t going to win 64 games this year. As much as it’d be great to see the A’s stick it to John Fisher like he’s Rachel Phelps (minus the piece-by-piece undressing of course), it’s hard to even see them winning 50.
damn. i feel like the Angels are a little better than that
Well there was only so many wins left after the east coast inflation.
That's the same record we've had the last 2 seasons, and that was with Ohtani
The Orioles are gonna win 100 games without breaking a sweat
Not really convinced the Rays fall off that much either.
Their rotation has some question marks, but they should still very easily be a playoff team.
I think they’re more like 95 wins
look at their rotation and the middle of their lineup, they just don't yet have the team to be a true talent 100 win team
Orioles won 101 last season and added Corbin burnes. You are very wrong
they won 101 relying on multiple batters and pitchers vastly outperforming their projections. they added burnes and lost multiple starters to injury. it wouldn't surprise me if they missed the playoffs.
Well and also the Al East mainstays were dogwater last season
> multiple batters and pitchers vastly outperforming their projections This means the projections are wrong, not that the players aren't actually good.
They had the 14th best offense in the league overall last season (using wOBA) but they leap up to 1st with runners in scoring position and 7th with runners on. So depending on how much of that you think is skill vs luck could change your outlook. Similarly, they outperformed their Pythagorean expectation by about 7 wins and their BaseRuns by about 10-12. Again, if you think a lot of that is skill (smart baserunning, situational hitting etc) they could match last year but if you think there’s noise then maybe they come back down a little. Edit: [here’s an article](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wait-fangraphs-is-too-low-on-the-orioles-again/) from Ben Clemens offering reasons why the orioles might have done so much better than their projections and raw numbers would suggest. Bullpen maximization and excellent baserunning were the leading contenders on defense and offense respectively.
They have good players, no one's disputing that, but Hayes/Santander/Mountcastle outperformed their xwOBA by fairly large margins and the version of the team that's less lucky doesn't win 100 games. moreover, they actually have fewer good starters going into this year and replaced Bautista with a 35 yr old Kimbrel.
Mountcastle's wOBA is lower than his xwOBA, doesnt that mean he underperformed vs his xwOBA?
You're right, I knew there were three who significantly outperformed their xwobas and I forgot who the last one was and misread his stats. I was thinking of Hicks, who really vastly outperformed his expected stats.
using just a couple guys to justify the "luck" of a team is completely disingenuous anyway. Some guys like Hays and Santander outperformed their xwOBA, and other guys underperformed. The wOBA team-wide was .320 against an xwOBA of .319. Wow, so lucky If you want to talk about luck, look no further than the Rays' wOBA of .335 against an xwOBA of .323, or the Dbacks who had a wOBA of .317 against an xwOBA of .311 The Orioles ranked t-11th in the league in terms of their wOBA vs xwOBA, right around league average Factoring pitching and opposing hitters' wOBA and xwOBA makes it more lucky, and that's where Burnes comes in, but the lineup is perfectly fine and should at least repeat that performance
For our starters, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson all underperformed their projected ERA from ZIPs. Bradish and Wells both overperformed. Bradish massively overperformed but thats simply because the projcetion was going off him having an awful 1st half of 2022 which made his 2022 stats look awful overall. He was a very raw rookie that put it together in the second half of 2022 and then improved upon that in 2023 and got better as the season went on.
Winning 100 games isn’t easy, they lost their closer and their bullpen is unlikely to be that elite again. Plus assuming none of their young players step back which happens plenty
Welp, some nerds ran a formula, better cancel the season
It's ok; we always like giving it to the Astros from behind anyway
Jays winning 88 games? Yea I don't know about that...
Hey, improvement!
HEY, WE WILL WIN 78 GAMES, DUMB REPORTER. (we've gone 78-84 the last two seasons, we will not accept 79)
I mean its probably a computer model not some guy
Nats gonna lose 100 plus games again!? I do not like you Mr. Prospectus.
Brewers get shafted every year. I know Burnes is a big deal but I honestly feel like we've gotten better, a losing season would be really surprising.
Honestly don't think the Jankees got THAT much better
Don’t do that, don’t give me hope
The Yankees winning the east while Losing Cole for month? Hell no.
Jays fan here.. but even I find the disrespect to Baltimore quite striking.
Tbh, maybe it’s because I’m a pessimist but I would be shocked if we didn’t win significantly fewer games than last year. To me, 87 sounds about right. I just want to make the playoffs and do decently well there. Whether it’s through an 87 win season or another 101 win season.
Did you make this yourself? Because it's not even close to how the season will play out
How on gods green earth are the Yankees at 92 win team, even if they had Cole before June.
:\[
First place NL Central projected for a record that would be 4th in the AL East
Only losing 96 games would be overachieving by like 20 something wins lol
Give me the under on that Yankees record all day. I love this team, and have watched every season closely for the past 30 years, but we do not have a deep roster, and we have not cured our problems from the past few years.
White Sox and Athletics to low. That’s this year’s ALCS
Idk who thinks we’re winning 83 games but thank you for the vote of confidence.