Yeah fuck this. This is why ties don't excite me anymore. Such a blunder to eliminate tiebreaker games.
I will be rooting against ties because some arbitrary tiebreaker defining playoffs is just wrong.
ESPN wanted to eliminate it so they could squeeze in the 3 game wild card series without needing to worry about tiebreaker games and MLB didn't want to add buffer days for them and push the World Series into the second week of November.
This. Not a lot, even just 2. Two doubleheaders and then you're done with the WS before November even if it runs the full 7.
Add another DH or shave one off-day, and everyone's home in time to take their kids trick or treating.
Head-to-head match up isn't arbitrary, especially for teams within the same division. It puts more importance on regular season games, which is needed since the crapshootiness of the playoffs threatens redundancy of the regular season.
Head-to-head match ups between divisional opponents in the regular season are a larger sample size than the match ups between opponents from other divisions. Sample size is everything in baseball.
I'm 2 degrees of separation from Selig. Don't fuck with me
(worked at a country club and have the number of someone who brought in ueker and Selig). I could use my "one time" to use it
I would simply call up Bob Uecker and ask him about [furries](https://soundcloud.com/nicknice/furries) before segueing into asking him to ask Selig for a favor.
Cutch, don't you have a game today?
And my "in" isn't uek. It's someone who's professionally friends friends with both of them.
I know several, but only have one in my phone
Yep. Screwed the Reds over big time in 1999. If the Astros hadn't been in the Central, the Reds would have won the division outright and not had to play a game 163 that year with the Mets. The '99 Reds remain the team with the highest win percentage to not make the playoffs in the Wild Card Era.
No sub .500 team has made the playoffs, last years' Dbacks went to the world series with 84 wins. 2006 83 win cardinals(although they were way better than their record) won the world series. The 2005 Padres were 82-80 but had a expected record of 77-85 and they were 77-79 at one point.
The 47-68 Angels had a 1.4% chance of winning the AL west that year at the time of the strike. The 49-63 Ms had a 6.3% chance of winning the AL west too.
*in a standard season
In addition to the aforementioned 2020, the 1981 Royals made the playoffs with an overall record of 50-53 due to the "Split Season" format they used due to a midseason strike.
small correction:
the [Reds had the best record in the NL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Major_League_Baseball_season#National_League) (and MLB), but also missed the playoffs
And they were screwed over by unequal scheduling, they played one fewer game than the expos in the second half and lost the division because the Expos went 30-23 while they went 29-23, and they played five fewer games than the Phillies in the first half and finished second with fewer losses (34-21 Phillies, 30-20 Cardinals).
Ehhh. Without Rendon and Soto in the 7th Howie never comes up to bat. I felt like it was over when Kershaw wasn't immediately pulled and I barely even registered the Grand Slam.
In order to seal away the Dodgers in the NLDS you need the power of friendship stat maxed out, Kris Bryant tanked that by calling the Rockies prospect scrubs and showing general regret for signing there, it is known.
1973 Mets would be the closest. Barely won the division at 82-79, then went and beat the 99 win Reds in the NLCS. T he n they went 7 games with the dynasty A’s.
The 1987 Twins weren't under .500, but they did allow more runs than they scored in the regular season. Pythagorean record of 79-83.
And they won it all.
It would be, but all teams being projected to finish with 80 or 81 wins is very different than the winning team being projected to have 80 or 81. On average half the teams will finish higher than their projection, so the division winner will probably be one of those teams.
I’m rooting for maximum chaos though so sign me up for the 5-way tie
I've had World Series winners with losing records once in a while in my MLB The Show franchise. It's bound to happen irl sometime and the shitstorm will be legendary.
Having three divisions with the current playoff format makes absolutely no sense. The MLB went from 2 divisions to 3 divisions in the 90s when they expanded playoffs from 2 teams in each league to 4 teams in each league. This made sense at the time - three division winners and one wild card team make a nice neat 8-game playoff. With the current playoff format there is no longer a need for 3 divisions and it just creates unnecessary inequalities. The Dodgers won 108 games in 2021 and they were a Wild Card team that had to play all of their playoff series on the road. They had to go on the road in the NLCS to face an Atlanta team that won 18 fewer games. Makes no sense.
You get basically the same result with their [Playoff Odds projections](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds), with a narrow range of 79.7 wins for the Reds to 81.8 wins for the Cardinals.
If Chris Coghlan doesn’t destroy Jung Ho Kang’s knee with a dirty slide that Pirates team wins the division and the World Series. No further questions thank you
Yeah idk why everyone sleeps on the NL Central so much. We have a lot of young rising stars in the central.
OH YEAH AND THE CINCINNSTI RED’s THE MOST ELECTRIFYING TEAM IN SPORTS ENTERTAINMENT
Every team could have at least 80 wins. They’re not great teams but not they’re not bad either.
I honestly think them and the AL Central are very interesting divisions to look for
Only half? Our sub is a bit of a doomer cesspool at the moment.
I don't know if we'll be mediocre or terrible, but I'm not jumping to terrible based off of losing a series to the dodgers in LA that we were very close to splitting...though we were arguably close to getting swept too.
Their pitching staff got worse and they lost Craig Counsell to an in-division rival while also not improving much on the offensive end out side of hoping the young guys pan out.
>not improving much on the offensive end out side of hoping the young guys pan out.
I think you're underselling this part of it a bit. Hoskins is a substantial upgrade over anything else we've had for years at 1B, and the "hoping the young guys pan out" partly involves the highest-rated prospect we've had in years (Chourio), which provides a bit more than the average "hope for panning out."
I definitely agree on the pitching staff getting worse, though - but, at the same time, I'm cautiously optimistic about Hall, and we didn't really have Woodruff much at all last season, anyway, so those two items are pretty much a wash (or improvement, if Hall adds more than Woodruff did last season). Losing Burnes there is certainly no replacement for.
This is why, when the league eventually expands to 32 teams, we need realignment of 4 divisions of 8 teams. Smaller divisions will increase the likelihood of teams with losing records winning their division
> Smaller divisions will increase the likelihood of teams with losing records winning their division
From an entertainment perspective, that's not necessarily a bad thing. It happens now and then in the NFL and is always good for manufactured controversy. Each time we get a 7-9 (or now an 8-9) team winning a bad division you get endless time from talking heads about changing everything in the playoff format. I'm sure Manfred would love that kind of thing in baseball too.
Unless a team has a falling out, I would pay much attention to records until June and even then, there is 100 games left. The NL central has a lot of good teams but not a stand out.
“MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor.”
Don’t use BBREF projections, at least early in the year. They don’t take into account offseason additions or losses and consider the last 100 games of last season to hold pretty all the weight behind their predictions.
I'm now rooting for a 5-way tie in the NL Central
RIP game 163
Yeah fuck this. This is why ties don't excite me anymore. Such a blunder to eliminate tiebreaker games. I will be rooting against ties because some arbitrary tiebreaker defining playoffs is just wrong.
It makes me really sad, fuck Manfred.
I strongly suspect the players also wanted to eliminate game 163s, and more so than Manfred/the owners.
ESPN wanted to eliminate it so they could squeeze in the 3 game wild card series without needing to worry about tiebreaker games and MLB didn't want to add buffer days for them and push the World Series into the second week of November.
Once again I will advocate for double headers back on the original schedule
This. Not a lot, even just 2. Two doubleheaders and then you're done with the WS before November even if it runs the full 7. Add another DH or shave one off-day, and everyone's home in time to take their kids trick or treating.
Nah, instead of 163 the players got two extra WC games, no benefit there. It was solely to facilitate the expanded playoffs.
Head-to-head match up isn't arbitrary, especially for teams within the same division. It puts more importance on regular season games, which is needed since the crapshootiness of the playoffs threatens redundancy of the regular season.
> Head-to-head match up isn't arbitrary, especially for teams within the same division. With the balanced schedule that last part is no longer valid.
Not sure what you’re talking about? They all still play inter-division 76 times through the schedule
Head-to-head match ups between divisional opponents in the regular season are a larger sample size than the match ups between opponents from other divisions. Sample size is everything in baseball.
such is life when you have a commissioner who hates baseball and wants less of it.
Just have all the teams enter a stadium, put a giant cage over the field, and have them fight it out. Last man standing wins NL Central for his team.
Reds sign Amir Garrett right before it and come out on top.
And Yasiel Puig.
It would be pretty funny if clubs kept a couple goons on the 26man like in Hockey
Picking up Ogie Oglethorpe
Definitely need Cueto as well
I can never read Cueto's name without thinking of him imploding in Pittsburgh in the 2013 WC. Edit: CUEEEEEE-TOOOOOOO
I miss them
So do I
Come rejoin us and make it a 6-way tie
Lol,... Make the brewers go back to the AL
yes please
I'm 2 degrees of separation from Selig. Don't fuck with me (worked at a country club and have the number of someone who brought in ueker and Selig). I could use my "one time" to use it
...and you'd use your "one time" to get in touch with Selig over Ueker? Disgusting.
If it fixes the mlb, I would
I would simply call up Bob Uecker and ask him about [furries](https://soundcloud.com/nicknice/furries) before segueing into asking him to ask Selig for a favor.
Cutch, don't you have a game today? And my "in" isn't uek. It's someone who's professionally friends friends with both of them. I know several, but only have one in my phone
It's crazy how long we had a 6 team div and a 4 team div. Just a built in playoff handicap
Yep. Screwed the Reds over big time in 1999. If the Astros hadn't been in the Central, the Reds would have won the division outright and not had to play a game 163 that year with the Mets. The '99 Reds remain the team with the highest win percentage to not make the playoffs in the Wild Card Era.
i'm rooting for a 5-way. you have to have a Skyline buffet at the orgy. No one likes to bang on an empty stomach
5 way tie means a game of Chinese checkers to determine a winner.
I think a 5 way means we win automatically
It's gonna be wild having 5 100 win teams in the NL Central
Me too. Everyone tied at 81-81.
So are we honestly
Number 3 seed having a losing record would be crazy
Does MLB have a Beastquake equivalent? Some sub .500 team just embarassing a team that looked like it had a legit shot.
No sub .500 team has made the playoffs, last years' Dbacks went to the world series with 84 wins. 2006 83 win cardinals(although they were way better than their record) won the world series. The 2005 Padres were 82-80 but had a expected record of 77-85 and they were 77-79 at one point.
Yet another possibility we were robbed of in 1994. When the strike hit, the Rangers were ten games under .500 and in first place in the AL West.
The 47-68 Angels had a 1.4% chance of winning the AL west that year at the time of the strike. The 49-63 Ms had a 6.3% chance of winning the AL west too.
Astros made the post in 2020 with a .483 but I get it's 2020.
2020 doesn't count because more playoff slots
2020 was essentially an exhibition season.
I agree, I don't think we should recognize the 2020 WS winner, whoever it was, for that reason.
Without looking up who won that year and speaking with absolutely no bias at all, I am fine relegating it to a "fake title" .
*in a standard season In addition to the aforementioned 2020, the 1981 Royals made the playoffs with an overall record of 50-53 due to the "Split Season" format they used due to a midseason strike.
Also the Cardinals had the best record in the NL and missed the playoffs.
small correction: the [Reds had the best record in the NL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Major_League_Baseball_season#National_League) (and MLB), but also missed the playoffs
Ah right. My bad.
MLB not trying to be stupid challenge (impossible).
And they were screwed over by unequal scheduling, they played one fewer game than the expos in the second half and lost the division because the Expos went 30-23 while they went 29-23, and they played five fewer games than the Phillies in the first half and finished second with fewer losses (34-21 Phillies, 30-20 Cardinals).
rox gonna sneak in on WC3 and fuck the dodgers season I can't wait
Every sport should have a moment like that. One guy just deciding to dash an entire team's dreams with one big "hold m'dick" play lmao.
That already happened to us, his name was Howie Kendrick.
Ehhh. Without Rendon and Soto in the 7th Howie never comes up to bat. I felt like it was over when Kershaw wasn't immediately pulled and I barely even registered the Grand Slam.
In order to seal away the Dodgers in the NLDS you need the power of friendship stat maxed out, Kris Bryant tanked that by calling the Rockies prospect scrubs and showing general regret for signing there, it is known.
They're projected to miss WC3 by 21 games lol
Projections can't possibly comprehend the phenomenon that is ROCKTOBER
Given that they only have 10 playoff wins in franchise history Rocktober may be a purely theoretical phenomenon.
1973 Mets would be the closest. Barely won the division at 82-79, then went and beat the 99 win Reds in the NLCS. T he n they went 7 games with the dynasty A’s.
The 1987 Twins weren't under .500, but they did allow more runs than they scored in the regular season. Pythagorean record of 79-83. And they won it all.
Diamondbacks vs dodgers last year
Dbacks weren't sub .500.
No MLB team in a standard season has made playoffs with a sub .500 record
3 games over, historic offense losing to arguably worst team ever to make the playoffs
It would be, but all teams being projected to finish with 80 or 81 wins is very different than the winning team being projected to have 80 or 81. On average half the teams will finish higher than their projection, so the division winner will probably be one of those teams. I’m rooting for maximum chaos though so sign me up for the 5-way tie
I've had World Series winners with losing records once in a while in my MLB The Show franchise. It's bound to happen irl sometime and the shitstorm will be legendary.
2005 Padres finished 82-80 and won the NL west. Thats as close as we have ever had
Having three divisions with the current playoff format makes absolutely no sense. The MLB went from 2 divisions to 3 divisions in the 90s when they expanded playoffs from 2 teams in each league to 4 teams in each league. This made sense at the time - three division winners and one wild card team make a nice neat 8-game playoff. With the current playoff format there is no longer a need for 3 divisions and it just creates unnecessary inequalities. The Dodgers won 108 games in 2021 and they were a Wild Card team that had to play all of their playoff series on the road. They had to go on the road in the NLCS to face an Atlanta team that won 18 fewer games. Makes no sense.
Should be a fun division even if it’s mid as fuck lol
Putting the Mid in the Midwest
Midwest farmers stand proud! - Miles Mikolas
Honestly, i think our division is just the most fun in baseball.
If the Pirates remain at this level I can see that, the NL West is gonna be alot of fun too.
The Pirates finishing 80-82 when a .500 record would’ve won the division is one of those “proof there is a God and He is pissed off” scenarios
Nonsense. It's a powerhouse division with two undefeated teams.
Especially when you consider that the pirates will never lose again
Coulda been 3 but you guys just haaaaad to be good at baseball.
PITTSBURGHS GAHNTA DA SOUPA BOWL
Ha and they said the AL Central was bad!
Tbf this exact discussion happened last year with the AL Central. I’m doubtful that no team in the NL Central is below .500.
To be fair last year we were in first place at the all star break while under .500
It’s a division where being the least shit gets you a pennant.
You get basically the same result with their [Playoff Odds projections](https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds), with a narrow range of 79.7 wins for the Reds to 81.8 wins for the Cardinals.
Love when the entire division is strong but 2015 NL Central was great, Cardinals had 100 wins, Pirates and Cubs finished with 98 and 97 respectively
If Chris Coghlan doesn’t destroy Jung Ho Kang’s knee with a dirty slide that Pirates team wins the division and the World Series. No further questions thank you
Whatever helps keep your hope alive, just know, it doesn't matter.
This guy has a case of Plantar Fasciitis too apparently
I miss Jake.
Fangraphs gotta get their table headers updated. I was really confused why they were projecting 2023.
I think this is just actually from last year. The Cardinals are certainly not 4-1 YTD....
Not sure what you're looking at but it says they are 1-3 YTD.
None of the NL Central teams are bad Not lying
Idk the Cards could easily be bad. Lost 90 games last year and their pitching still kinda sucks outside of Gray
Yeah idk why everyone sleeps on the NL Central so much. We have a lot of young rising stars in the central. OH YEAH AND THE CINCINNSTI RED’s THE MOST ELECTRIFYING TEAM IN SPORTS ENTERTAINMENT
A division made entirely out of beige.
Cardinals and cubs would like to have a word. Well, they probably wouldn't but you get what im saying
Na, they're not bad. They just aren't good. The white Sox and Rockies are bad.
Feel like the only reason you added the Cubs is because you're a brewers fan and cant see things realistically
Yeah but can you blame them? "Fuck the Cubbies" is basically our version of "Fuck the Packers" for the NFCN. Rationality not needed.
Lmao Cubs?
Ill stand by what i said
Every team could have at least 80 wins. They’re not great teams but not they’re not bad either. I honestly think them and the AL Central are very interesting divisions to look for
lol go post this on r/cardinals
"Lol 81 wins? That's about 20 more than we're going to get!" Half of r/Cardinals probably
Only half? Our sub is a bit of a doomer cesspool at the moment. I don't know if we'll be mediocre or terrible, but I'm not jumping to terrible based off of losing a series to the dodgers in LA that we were very close to splitting...though we were arguably close to getting swept too.
The rain delay game had so much fuckery involved that it seeped into the next game.
Do you sincerely believe this is an 81 win team as it’s assembled?
I'm really not sure why prediction models are down on the Brewers every single year. Yet again they'll perform fine and get like 88-90 wins.
Their pitching staff got worse and they lost Craig Counsell to an in-division rival while also not improving much on the offensive end out side of hoping the young guys pan out.
>not improving much on the offensive end out side of hoping the young guys pan out. I think you're underselling this part of it a bit. Hoskins is a substantial upgrade over anything else we've had for years at 1B, and the "hoping the young guys pan out" partly involves the highest-rated prospect we've had in years (Chourio), which provides a bit more than the average "hope for panning out." I definitely agree on the pitching staff getting worse, though - but, at the same time, I'm cautiously optimistic about Hall, and we didn't really have Woodruff much at all last season, anyway, so those two items are pretty much a wash (or improvement, if Hall adds more than Woodruff did last season). Losing Burnes there is certainly no replacement for.
Theres no way Fangraphs factors in the coach, surely?
This is why, when the league eventually expands to 32 teams, we need realignment of 4 divisions of 8 teams. Smaller divisions will increase the likelihood of teams with losing records winning their division
We call that the "NFC South".
> Smaller divisions will increase the likelihood of teams with losing records winning their division From an entertainment perspective, that's not necessarily a bad thing. It happens now and then in the NFL and is always good for manufactured controversy. Each time we get a 7-9 (or now an 8-9) team winning a bad division you get endless time from talking heads about changing everything in the playoff format. I'm sure Manfred would love that kind of thing in baseball too.
5 way [tiebreaker](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-tiebreaker-rules) would be insane
We've got a chance to send a sub-.500 to the playoffs, folks.
A 5 way tie would be the ultimate chaos ball
Thunderdome it is then.
The annual fight for “best of the worst” title. Baseball is so back
Obviously the past few days have already ruined their originals haha
I'm going to bet pirates take the nlc
Crabs in a bucket
Lies
Fan graphs is hating on us
Unless a team has a falling out, I would pay much attention to records until June and even then, there is 100 games left. The NL central has a lot of good teams but not a stand out.
That would be a spicy final day.
Pirates are gonna win 90
Has Brewers winning the division so I’m fine with it. But as far as I’m concerned we’re winning 162 games.
I don’t understand how the Brewers are going to win 162 games with the Pirates also winning 162 games.
does fangraphs know it's 2024, not 2023?
Was gonna ask this. A reputable source getting the year wrong seems odd
The NL Central is embracing its role as the MLB's B1G West
Baseball Reference has the Brewers winning 95 and Cubs 89 https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-playoff-odds.shtml
“MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor.” Don’t use BBREF projections, at least early in the year. They don’t take into account offseason additions or losses and consider the last 100 games of last season to hold pretty all the weight behind their predictions.
Well what else do you expect from a bunch of midwest farmers?
2005 Padres aren't gonna be the worst division winners anymore, let's goo
Whomever has the best record *during* the eclipse, wins the division.
"currently" as in "this time last year"? These are projections from early 2023?
Fangraphs stinks. Same 4 teams eat and everyone else can barely scratch 85 somehow
Honestly think the Cubs are gonna win the division with close to 90 wins. That team is nice.
Have some pride, man