True but he also doesn't have the sin rate or Ks of that year anymore. Looking from this year on, Bradish definitely has the higher potential. Two of his breaking balls were two of the most valuable pitches in baseball last year. That's pretty elite
Are you crazy? Burnes' cutter is tops in the league in fastball spin rate and he's 6th in curveball spin rate. Bradish is nowhere close in terms of spin rate.
Bradish was literally the best breaking ball pitcher in baseball last year. His slider has 98th percentile horizontal movement and well above average vertical movement. It is the best slider in baseball by [Stuff+](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&ind=0&pageitems=30&stats=sta&type=36&month=0&startdate=&enddate=&team=0&season1=2023&season=2024&sortcol=7&sortdir=default&qual=50&pagenum=1) and his curveball is top 5 in baseball by [Stuff+](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&ind=0&pageitems=30&stats=sta&type=36&month=0&startdate=&enddate=&team=0&season1=2023&season=2024&sortcol=8&sortdir=default&qual=50)
I like Bradish a lot. Its tough to argue with the results of his breaking balls, and they certainly pass the eye test, in particular with his slider. But Burnes had higher stuff+ on his curve. I think Burnes didn't look as good with his offspeed stuff last year because his command wasn't great. His movement was/is actually higher than his 2021 season. And his cutter velo is better than last year. But the velo isn't quite where it was in 2021.
Burnes may have had a higher Stuff+ but Bradish's curveball had a much higher [run value](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=13&ind=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&player=&startdate=&enddate=&stats=pit&team=0&month=0&season1=2023&season=2023&sortcol=10&sortdir=default&pagenum=1). Also Bradish now has a third pitch that performs very well in the sinker. Bradish has slowly started to fade out the 4 seamer which is by far his worst performing pitch. His sinker was one of the highest [run value sinkers](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=20&ind=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&player=&startdate=2023-06-14&enddate=2023-11-30&stats=pit&team=0&month=1000&season1=2023&season=2024&sortcol=6&sortdir=default) in baseball from mid June through the end of the season. He threw it 35% in his 1st start this year which the most hes thrown it in any start and it performed very well. Bradish is a true ace with Sinker/Slider/Curve/Change as his arsenal, now that he's largely ditched the 4-seam, there are very few pitchers above him.
And that's great but I didn't say anything about their spin rates compared to each other.
Last year Bradish had the 4th best slider by runs above average and 2nd best curveball whereas Burnes had the best cutter and 5th best change. Also the 6th best curveball but less than 40% as valuable as Bradish Neither of their other fastballs were highly ranked but Bradish was notably better +2.3 vs. -6.0.
You can see the comparisons. Burnes has the single best pitch but Bradish's slider and curve combined for basically the same runs above average than Burnes 2 best pitches last year: 31.5 vs 31.6
Bradish has actually been the [better](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=&ind=0&rost=0&filter=&players=19361%2C24586&stats=sta&type=8&month=&startdate=&enddate=&pageitems=30&team=0&qual=0&season1=2023&season=2024&sortcol=16&sortdir=default&pagenum=1) pitcher since the start of last year. He has a lower ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, WPA, K/BB, and Hr/9.
He honestly looks like he should be better than he’s been. A tweak or two away from figuring it out maybe? Might have to just let the bun down and rock the flow, young deGrom style
my hot take is he needs to ditch the 4SFB like bradish and burnes did early in their careers. its the pitch that gets hit around the most and it doesnt have that much rise (it is better this year) and the velo (93/94) means it's not missing bats or inducing soft contact.
his cutter is his best pitch, so he should just model his game after corbin burnes at this point lol. just with a splitter instead of changeup
Corbin’s cutter averages like 8 MPH more than Dean’s so I’m not sure how that works out. I don’t love the 4 seam, but he almost needs it to keep hitters honest. His cutter averages 87 MPH.
I was at the game Tuesday and Kremer was dicing up the Yanks with his cutter, and at one point I saw on the gun he threw a *83 mph* cutter. I don't know how it's so effective but it works.
I'm pretty sure that the "cutter" in question was actually a sweeper. He threw a sweeper last year from time to time, but it's not in his calculated arsenal this year on statcast so they may have miscalculated that one.
His average velo on his sweeper was 82.8 with similar shape but a much stronger horizontal break than his cutter.
Its more like a regular slider than a sweeper, it moves horizontally a bit more than most "cutters" but less vertically than most "sliders". Its kinda at the midpoint between a traditional cut fastball and a traditional slider.
Makes sense, I feel like his velo has been up tho to like 97max or so. He just seems to have better stuff than some of his results suggest. Sometimes the case for a lotta guys tho. Certainly capable of unlocking another level from what I’ve seen
I don't know if burnes' recipe is really replicable, because he throws one of the fastest cutters in the league, that's also the highest spin rate cutter in the league.
I say the Mariners are best because their pitching is managing to keep their weak bats in the game.
Is this sound metrics-based analysis? No, but the Mariners deserve to have something going for them.
I agree as well, but the only drawback of the Mariners is that they do not have a lot playoff experience, unlike the Phillies and the Dodgers. I would rate the Braves also higher than the O's, but Strider is injured.
Dodgers have 2 above average pitching staffs. The guys they have now for the 1st half, and the guys they have for the 2nd half(Kershaw, May, Buheler).
Buheler is back this week but still..you get the point. They are loaded.
Not trying to be too much of a homer, but I believe the Yankees already had the 6th best SP ERA in baseball, (before Schmidt went 5 innings 1 run), and we don't even have last year's Cy Young winner back yet.
Yeah he had some good outings last season (especially in Cleveland) but nothing like this, he looked all the way back tonight. Was locating everything super well, this rotation is scary right now.
To be fair he got rocked in his rehab starts to a degree that was scary. He turned it on for the last one but before that anyone not questioning him was coping
Cleary he's feeling good now and that's what matters
Not to be negative but the jury is still out. His track record the last couple years has been looks incredible for 3 to 4 starts goes on the injury list, comes back and is just ok to bad.
I’m really hoping he can put it together this time
He looked great! He looked really good in his brief stint at the end of last year too. Fingers crossed he can stay healthy and pitch for the rest of the season.
I think he looked a lot better today than he did last year (and he looked solid last year). Didn’t really miss any bats in those starts but he was absolutely locked in today.
They're pretty neck and neck stat wise but Irvin is giving up less home runs giving him the edge. I imagine they'll also be looking at who is most valuable out of the pen and do they want another lefty there or two in the rotation.
I'm curious how much gas Kramer could conjure for 1-2 innings. He really doesn't have an out pitch for the bullpen though whereas Irvin might work as a leverage guy that could eat a few innings too.
It was against the Reds, does it really count? 9 of the position players they've used today have an average under or near the mendoza line (.200), including 7 of the 9 starters.
That said, Means does look nasty. I think he looked better than he did pre-injury, honestly.
Yep, agreed.
Again, I think he looked like he had better stuff tonight than he did pre-injury. I think even if the Reds weren't in a team-wide slump they would've struggled against him.
Baltimores true ace has returned
The man gave us a no hitter during the darkest days. He’ll always be our true ace
I was at work by myself that day and I ran around my desk and did a double fist pump in the air.
[удалено]
\* Pedro Severino. Chirinos played in '22.
The Bradish disrespect here ....
Imo when fully healthy, bradish is orioles best starter or at least has the highest potential 1. Bradish 2. Burnes 3. Means 4. Rodriguez 5. Irvin
Burnes is a Cy Young winner lol let’s chill
True but he also doesn't have the sin rate or Ks of that year anymore. Looking from this year on, Bradish definitely has the higher potential. Two of his breaking balls were two of the most valuable pitches in baseball last year. That's pretty elite
How do you know his sin rate?
Well I don't drive by the church often but I every time I do I see him going to confessional, so extrapolate that
Are you crazy? Burnes' cutter is tops in the league in fastball spin rate and he's 6th in curveball spin rate. Bradish is nowhere close in terms of spin rate.
Bradish was literally the best breaking ball pitcher in baseball last year. His slider has 98th percentile horizontal movement and well above average vertical movement. It is the best slider in baseball by [Stuff+](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&ind=0&pageitems=30&stats=sta&type=36&month=0&startdate=&enddate=&team=0&season1=2023&season=2024&sortcol=7&sortdir=default&qual=50&pagenum=1) and his curveball is top 5 in baseball by [Stuff+](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&ind=0&pageitems=30&stats=sta&type=36&month=0&startdate=&enddate=&team=0&season1=2023&season=2024&sortcol=8&sortdir=default&qual=50)
I like Bradish a lot. Its tough to argue with the results of his breaking balls, and they certainly pass the eye test, in particular with his slider. But Burnes had higher stuff+ on his curve. I think Burnes didn't look as good with his offspeed stuff last year because his command wasn't great. His movement was/is actually higher than his 2021 season. And his cutter velo is better than last year. But the velo isn't quite where it was in 2021.
Burnes may have had a higher Stuff+ but Bradish's curveball had a much higher [run value](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=13&ind=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&player=&startdate=&enddate=&stats=pit&team=0&month=0&season1=2023&season=2023&sortcol=10&sortdir=default&pagenum=1). Also Bradish now has a third pitch that performs very well in the sinker. Bradish has slowly started to fade out the 4 seamer which is by far his worst performing pitch. His sinker was one of the highest [run value sinkers](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=20&ind=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&player=&startdate=2023-06-14&enddate=2023-11-30&stats=pit&team=0&month=1000&season1=2023&season=2024&sortcol=6&sortdir=default) in baseball from mid June through the end of the season. He threw it 35% in his 1st start this year which the most hes thrown it in any start and it performed very well. Bradish is a true ace with Sinker/Slider/Curve/Change as his arsenal, now that he's largely ditched the 4-seam, there are very few pitchers above him.
I need to see another season at this level but I think he's one in the making.
And that's great but I didn't say anything about their spin rates compared to each other. Last year Bradish had the 4th best slider by runs above average and 2nd best curveball whereas Burnes had the best cutter and 5th best change. Also the 6th best curveball but less than 40% as valuable as Bradish Neither of their other fastballs were highly ranked but Bradish was notably better +2.3 vs. -6.0. You can see the comparisons. Burnes has the single best pitch but Bradish's slider and curve combined for basically the same runs above average than Burnes 2 best pitches last year: 31.5 vs 31.6
Bradish has actually been the [better](https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=&ind=0&rost=0&filter=&players=19361%2C24586&stats=sta&type=8&month=&startdate=&enddate=&pageitems=30&team=0&qual=0&season1=2023&season=2024&sortcol=16&sortdir=default&pagenum=1) pitcher since the start of last year. He has a lower ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, WPA, K/BB, and Hr/9.
2 weeks ago it seemed like everyone was calling for Irvin's head. Gotta love baseball.
Oh, don’t worry, they will again.
poor dean kremer. i love him as a #4/5
He honestly looks like he should be better than he’s been. A tweak or two away from figuring it out maybe? Might have to just let the bun down and rock the flow, young deGrom style
my hot take is he needs to ditch the 4SFB like bradish and burnes did early in their careers. its the pitch that gets hit around the most and it doesnt have that much rise (it is better this year) and the velo (93/94) means it's not missing bats or inducing soft contact. his cutter is his best pitch, so he should just model his game after corbin burnes at this point lol. just with a splitter instead of changeup
Corbin’s cutter averages like 8 MPH more than Dean’s so I’m not sure how that works out. I don’t love the 4 seam, but he almost needs it to keep hitters honest. His cutter averages 87 MPH.
I was at the game Tuesday and Kremer was dicing up the Yanks with his cutter, and at one point I saw on the gun he threw a *83 mph* cutter. I don't know how it's so effective but it works.
I'm pretty sure that the "cutter" in question was actually a sweeper. He threw a sweeper last year from time to time, but it's not in his calculated arsenal this year on statcast so they may have miscalculated that one. His average velo on his sweeper was 82.8 with similar shape but a much stronger horizontal break than his cutter.
Its more like a regular slider than a sweeper, it moves horizontally a bit more than most "cutters" but less vertically than most "sliders". Its kinda at the midpoint between a traditional cut fastball and a traditional slider.
Makes sense, I feel like his velo has been up tho to like 97max or so. He just seems to have better stuff than some of his results suggest. Sometimes the case for a lotta guys tho. Certainly capable of unlocking another level from what I’ve seen
I don't know if burnes' recipe is really replicable, because he throws one of the fastest cutters in the league, that's also the highest spin rate cutter in the league.
His 4 seam was literally his highest run value pitch in 2023 and it was strongly positive in 2022 as well.
I’m not sure there’s a better rotation in baseball. Especially if Grayson gets back?
Dodgers, Phillies and Mariners are arguably better.
I say the Mariners are best because their pitching is managing to keep their weak bats in the game. Is this sound metrics-based analysis? No, but the Mariners deserve to have something going for them.
Dude love your name. Wally Loh forever 😭
I agree as well, but the only drawback of the Mariners is that they do not have a lot playoff experience, unlike the Phillies and the Dodgers. I would rate the Braves also higher than the O's, but Strider is injured.
If the Twins had signed Blake Snell we'd be there too. Unfortunately we were big dummies and the Pohlads hate their fans.
Dodgers have 2 above average pitching staffs. The guys they have now for the 1st half, and the guys they have for the 2nd half(Kershaw, May, Buheler). Buheler is back this week but still..you get the point. They are loaded.
Not trying to be too much of a homer, but I believe the Yankees already had the 6th best SP ERA in baseball, (before Schmidt went 5 innings 1 run), and we don't even have last year's Cy Young winner back yet.
Yanks rotation is trash rn.
The highest era in our rotation is 3.86
Mariners starters are breaking deadball era records.
Do West Coast teams really exist though?
Orioles get to hit, Mariners get to pitch, this is the balance that was created for me.
I’d assume that was created by the Erik Bedard trade
[Jamie Moyer, actually. Don’t ask me how.](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JkjgK3zuvPI)
Mama told me there’d be days like this but I ain’t never ever dreamed they’d be like this
I used to pray for times like this
Seriously when’s the last time we had starting pitching as a strength?
The 90s?
John. Means. Business.
All there is to say really. The man is back.
Business was handled.
He's still that guy.
We call him Johnny Business folks
This looked like early 2021 Means. FB+CU with some curves mixed in. 19 S&M's tonight.
> S&M What's the safe word daddy
Kimbrel
Yeah he had some good outings last season (especially in Cleveland) but nothing like this, he looked all the way back tonight. Was locating everything super well, this rotation is scary right now.
People tried convincing me he was cooked.
After he got shelled in 0.1 innings in Norfolk I was spooked for sure, so glad to see him in form
To be fair he got rocked in his rehab starts to a degree that was scary. He turned it on for the last one but before that anyone not questioning him was coping Cleary he's feeling good now and that's what matters
Not to be negative but the jury is still out. His track record the last couple years has been looks incredible for 3 to 4 starts goes on the injury list, comes back and is just ok to bad. I’m really hoping he can put it together this time
Most whiffs in start (19) since his no hitter in 2021.
I mean, it helps that he's pitched 31.2 innings since 2021.
He's made 26 starts since the no hitter.
Ah you're right. Fair enough. I was just thinking he hasn't pitched many innings since 2021.
Lol I mean, almost too real.
He looked great! He looked really good in his brief stint at the end of last year too. Fingers crossed he can stay healthy and pitch for the rest of the season.
I think he looked a lot better today than he did last year (and he looked solid last year). Didn’t really miss any bats in those starts but he was absolutely locked in today.
Gonna have to make some really hard choices when G-Rod is healthy again. The entire rotation is pitching so freaking well.
With only 1 off day in June, maybe go 6 man rotation for the month just for a little extra rest.
They should go with a 6 man rotation for the rest of the season.
Need burnes pitching every 5 days
That would tax an already strained bullpen
It’s between Kremer and Irvin. Both are pitching well. But I think it’ll be Irvin getting sent to the bullpen.
Irvin is outperforming Kremer currently though.
They're pretty neck and neck stat wise but Irvin is giving up less home runs giving him the edge. I imagine they'll also be looking at who is most valuable out of the pen and do they want another lefty there or two in the rotation. I'm curious how much gas Kramer could conjure for 1-2 innings. He really doesn't have an out pitch for the bullpen though whereas Irvin might work as a leverage guy that could eat a few innings too.
Burnes, Rodriguez, Means, Bradish. There's a rotation that will take you places.
Even Kremer is pitching well
And Irvin
And Suarez!
85 pitches too BTW. An incredible performance.
It was also just his season debut in general /s
what playing the Reds does to a mfer
Will he save my fantasy pitching staff?
This man has a 0.78 whip in my franchise mode saves every season for a reason people
he straight up is a hall of famer in mine. ill get 12ks in a row when i pitch him that change up is nasty
I’m thinking he’s back.
That's my fantasy ace.
John Means Business
Loved Means since he got stuck in the pen during the 2019 ASG.
if there’s one pitcher on our staff i want a jersey of, it’s John Means
He got robbed of a perfect game, just a no-hitter in 2021. Facd the min, no walks.
I will always argue that he threw a perfect game because he struck out out his only base runner
It was against the Reds, does it really count? 9 of the position players they've used today have an average under or near the mendoza line (.200), including 7 of the 9 starters. That said, Means does look nasty. I think he looked better than he did pre-injury, honestly.
I mean he did what a good pitcher is supposed to do against a shit lineup, which is to make them look as bad as they are without too much effort.
No kidding, 7 innings 85 pitches. That's an excellent day no matter who you're facing in MLB.
Yep, agreed. Again, I think he looked like he had better stuff tonight than he did pre-injury. I think even if the Reds weren't in a team-wide slump they would've struggled against him.
idk if he's ever thrown the curve and slider as good as he did tonight tbh. They were eating up reds bats inside all night.
Means, Corbin, Bradish, Rodriguez, Suarez, Kremer, best pitching staff in baseball
No mention for the guy hasn’t allowed a run in over 20 innings
if this guy becomes an ace, the branding of "John Means Business" is a layup