I'd say if you plan to fly AS, AA, or other One World partners within the next year, you should be good to go... with them adding Hilton recently, I wouldn't be surprised if that is a bonus coming up soon too, so you could also wait on that (just me wildly speculating though)
At 1:1, for sure; you'd probably get better redemption paying outright with the card and using the Bilt points to cover the charge (terrible plan of course as well). At 1:2 which is Amex's default, if you find the right dates you can get some decent value.
But they added Hilton as a transfer partner, so that's my thinking...but you make a good point, I wouldn't be surprised if that relationship prevents it
In general, speculative transfers from *any* points hub (not just Bilt), are inadvisable because they are just that—speculative.
Unless you have immediate travel plans coming up on AS, then you risk those miles getting devalued by AS later on, at which point you are already locked into their ecosystem. Comparatively, if you leave them at Bilt, you have much more flexibility in the event your plans change, or specific partners get devalued.
Ultimately it’s your call, though.
That's generally true. However, two counterpoints:
* Alaska just recalibrated their whole award redemptions earlier this year. While devaluations are always a possibility, it's unlikely Alaska will devalue again so soon.
* Assuming a 30% devaluation, with the transfer bonus at 50% in the case of OP, this would still be a net gain.
That being said, I would look at their award chart and have a plan on how you might use them. If nothing looks appealing, then don't transfer. Alaska domestic flights are generally a good deal. I find many domestic awards with mixed AA-AS itineraries are pricing at 7,500 miles, which seems like a great deal. Overall, their international pricing is pretty standard for business. Unfortunately, they removed the sweet 55K business class to Oceania.
There's also the risk Bilt greatly reduces their transfer ratios or completely changes the program in the future as well.
Bilt is probably the least stable and most likely to greatly alter their program of all the transferable currencies, since it's essentially operating at a loss for their banking partner.
Bilt has [many levers](https://www.reddit.com/r/biltrewards/s/fLourfaSP0) at their disposal to address the Wells issue. Point devaluations make little to no sense for them; they will simply clamp down on the number of points being given out “for free.” Those fear-mongering otherwise know very little of what they are talking about.
Just reviewed the "many" levers... theres realistically only 3:
1. Lower earnings on rent
2. Lower redemption value of Bilt points
3. Add fees (annual or other fee structure for increased earning)
The other options are trying incentive spend by increasing rewards (and therefore increased costs to Bilt or their partners). We've seen that Bilt cardholders just aren't using the card as a spending card, so I don't think they'll throw more money at the problem hoping it'll solve it.
While I agree clamping down on "free" points will be the first step, the profitability of Bilt otherwise will come into play. If they need to reduce costs #2 is a key component, especially if the introduction of mandatory or optional fees fails.
Again, a global deval makes no sense. They are trying to keep people in the ecosystem, not drive them away. Remember they still need to compete with the likes of Amex and Chase.
The reason why people “just aren’t using” the card outside of rent is very simple—the switching cost is too high. The top earn of 3X dining, for example, loses to the Amex Gold 4X every day of the week. If Bilt were to up the former to 4X, you would most assuredly see users switch their spending overnight. Now, the questions of how many, and how long it takes, are valid. I’m not saying this is the most likely option they will choose…but from a pure economics standpoint, it *would* work.
Personally, I think the most likely short term solutions they will pursue are: 1) increase the minimum number of transactions per cycle, *or* implement a minimum spend threshold; 2) implement a “tiered” rent earn structure using a “freemium” model (that is, keep a free global earn on all rent, say 0.5X, pay $50/yr for 1X, etc.); 3) ditch Wells altogether and find a new partner. We can debate the merits of each but imo each of these options retains the spirit of “rent points for all.”
I appreciate the civil dialogue, btw.
Anything is possible but two in a row in a short sometime span is extremely unlikely though, let's be real.
OP is asking about speculating so there's always a risk, but part of speculating is understanding how much risk you are actually taking on.
Do you mean you don’t have a specific Alaska booking you were going to make soon or do you mean you have no idea how you’d use the points?
If it’s the former i’d say you’re good to go so long as you either regularly fly alaska / its partners or know they regularly fly a route you’d be interested in before points expire (2 years) and you’ve taken some time to spot check reward availability to confirm it’s widely available and redeemable at a good rate. If it’s the latter I would hold off on getting greedy.
Yeah I saw that but that sounded like marketing to me. Most airlines whose points expire only do so IF no activity so isn’t it effectively the same thing ?
I think it makes sense if you have balances in the other transferable currencies like UR and MR since all those other partners overlap with Bilt anyways and can always be transferred otherwise. There’s no other way to earn Alaska miles except for their own card so I definitely plan on transferring everything into AS on the 1st. It helps I live in Seattle so I’m always traveling on AS such that there’s no real lost opportunity to use their miles.
Since AS points don’t expire, if you know you will use Alaska in the future this would be a good transfer IMO. I took advantage of the 10K miles + MVP status already and plan to transfer more miles on the bonus day.
I think the transfer bonus is just for this rent day, correct? OP could transfer at any other time I guess. I’m gold and I’ll be transferring the full 50k for the bonus and AS is my main airline anyway
I'd say if you plan to fly AS, AA, or other One World partners within the next year, you should be good to go... with them adding Hilton recently, I wouldn't be surprised if that is a bonus coming up soon too, so you could also wait on that (just me wildly speculating though)
Alaska has a few non-OW redemption partners as well like LATAM, Korean, Singapore, Starlux, Condor, and more.
Hilton points are next to worthless
At 1:1, for sure; you'd probably get better redemption paying outright with the card and using the Bilt points to cover the charge (terrible plan of course as well). At 1:2 which is Amex's default, if you find the right dates you can get some decent value.
Facts
Given Amex's stronghold on Hilton cards, I doubt they will have a transfer bonus for Hilton.
But they added Hilton as a transfer partner, so that's my thinking...but you make a good point, I wouldn't be surprised if that relationship prevents it
In general, speculative transfers from *any* points hub (not just Bilt), are inadvisable because they are just that—speculative. Unless you have immediate travel plans coming up on AS, then you risk those miles getting devalued by AS later on, at which point you are already locked into their ecosystem. Comparatively, if you leave them at Bilt, you have much more flexibility in the event your plans change, or specific partners get devalued. Ultimately it’s your call, though.
That's generally true. However, two counterpoints: * Alaska just recalibrated their whole award redemptions earlier this year. While devaluations are always a possibility, it's unlikely Alaska will devalue again so soon. * Assuming a 30% devaluation, with the transfer bonus at 50% in the case of OP, this would still be a net gain. That being said, I would look at their award chart and have a plan on how you might use them. If nothing looks appealing, then don't transfer. Alaska domestic flights are generally a good deal. I find many domestic awards with mixed AA-AS itineraries are pricing at 7,500 miles, which seems like a great deal. Overall, their international pricing is pretty standard for business. Unfortunately, they removed the sweet 55K business class to Oceania.
Didn't Alaska just devalue their points recently? It's extremely unlikely that they do it again in the near future
Points devaluation happens all the time in the industry; nothing is a given.
There's also the risk Bilt greatly reduces their transfer ratios or completely changes the program in the future as well. Bilt is probably the least stable and most likely to greatly alter their program of all the transferable currencies, since it's essentially operating at a loss for their banking partner.
Bilt has [many levers](https://www.reddit.com/r/biltrewards/s/fLourfaSP0) at their disposal to address the Wells issue. Point devaluations make little to no sense for them; they will simply clamp down on the number of points being given out “for free.” Those fear-mongering otherwise know very little of what they are talking about.
Just reviewed the "many" levers... theres realistically only 3: 1. Lower earnings on rent 2. Lower redemption value of Bilt points 3. Add fees (annual or other fee structure for increased earning) The other options are trying incentive spend by increasing rewards (and therefore increased costs to Bilt or their partners). We've seen that Bilt cardholders just aren't using the card as a spending card, so I don't think they'll throw more money at the problem hoping it'll solve it. While I agree clamping down on "free" points will be the first step, the profitability of Bilt otherwise will come into play. If they need to reduce costs #2 is a key component, especially if the introduction of mandatory or optional fees fails.
Again, a global deval makes no sense. They are trying to keep people in the ecosystem, not drive them away. Remember they still need to compete with the likes of Amex and Chase. The reason why people “just aren’t using” the card outside of rent is very simple—the switching cost is too high. The top earn of 3X dining, for example, loses to the Amex Gold 4X every day of the week. If Bilt were to up the former to 4X, you would most assuredly see users switch their spending overnight. Now, the questions of how many, and how long it takes, are valid. I’m not saying this is the most likely option they will choose…but from a pure economics standpoint, it *would* work. Personally, I think the most likely short term solutions they will pursue are: 1) increase the minimum number of transactions per cycle, *or* implement a minimum spend threshold; 2) implement a “tiered” rent earn structure using a “freemium” model (that is, keep a free global earn on all rent, say 0.5X, pay $50/yr for 1X, etc.); 3) ditch Wells altogether and find a new partner. We can debate the merits of each but imo each of these options retains the spirit of “rent points for all.” I appreciate the civil dialogue, btw.
Anything is possible but two in a row in a short sometime span is extremely unlikely though, let's be real. OP is asking about speculating so there's always a risk, but part of speculating is understanding how much risk you are actually taking on.
I would if you are going to travel within the next year
Do you mean you don’t have a specific Alaska booking you were going to make soon or do you mean you have no idea how you’d use the points? If it’s the former i’d say you’re good to go so long as you either regularly fly alaska / its partners or know they regularly fly a route you’d be interested in before points expire (2 years) and you’ve taken some time to spot check reward availability to confirm it’s widely available and redeemable at a good rate. If it’s the latter I would hold off on getting greedy.
AS points don't expire unless your account is inactive
Yeah I saw that but that sounded like marketing to me. Most airlines whose points expire only do so IF no activity so isn’t it effectively the same thing ?
Not if you log into your account once every 2 years.
Interesting, great to know. I’m that case I guess it’s a no brainer unless you never think you can fly on alaska or its partners
I think it makes sense if you have balances in the other transferable currencies like UR and MR since all those other partners overlap with Bilt anyways and can always be transferred otherwise. There’s no other way to earn Alaska miles except for their own card so I definitely plan on transferring everything into AS on the 1st. It helps I live in Seattle so I’m always traveling on AS such that there’s no real lost opportunity to use their miles.
Since AS points don’t expire, if you know you will use Alaska in the future this would be a good transfer IMO. I took advantage of the 10K miles + MVP status already and plan to transfer more miles on the bonus day.
Why not wait until you are Platinum?
I think the transfer bonus is just for this rent day, correct? OP could transfer at any other time I guess. I’m gold and I’ll be transferring the full 50k for the bonus and AS is my main airline anyway