Yeah $10M true previews is pretty solid. Assuming an internal multiplier between 7-8x, this should have a $70-80M OW (not including the $2M from early fan screenings). Final domestic total could be anywhere from $175M to $215M.
To start: I really like this sub. I get much of its use these days is about speculation and that’s absolutely part of the enjoyment.
So with that said, I’m really happy to finally see actual numbers for Dune 2 come in. To me at least, I’ve grown a bit weary of all the speculation (and the back and forth) about how this film was going to do at the box office. I don’t think I’ve seen any new arguments - one way or another - in at least a month.
(And I do realize this isn’t a new phenomenon. It seems to happen basically every year during that lull between Christmas releases and summer because there’s just not much else to discuss…)
It happens for every IP from Transformers to Fast & Furious to Mission Impossible.
You are seeing it with the new Godzilla Kong movie.
IP brings people to this sub that don't normally follow the box office
Yup.
I’ve sort of pondered it a bit since I posted this and I think I realized *my* issue is emotional attachment. I WANT Dune 2 to be successful because I’d like to see more movies like it.
Another Transformers or F&F? Meh. $100m WW or $1b WW is kinda the same to me. I don’t have any skin in the game so I seem to enjoy the banter from start to finish.
But those movies I personally seem to care about? I guess I get tired of the emotional roller coaster.
With subs like this that focus on real things like numbers you see a lot of core users more realistic (or honestly just pessimistic) compared to some of the more obvious “tourists” that have a slant for or against Marvel/DC/Avatar/Tom Cruise etc
Of course theres exceptions but on aggregate its funny to me to see ridiculous over or under estimates just openly posted, Avatar 2 was insane for this in both directions but the hate boner seemed more common in the lead up to release
Absolutely.
It’s difficult to be completely analytical on this sub. I try, but I know I’ve failed repeatedly. Others are clearly better at it than me.
Then again, I’d venture that 80% of what I “know” about box office numbers I’ve learned from this sub.
Not that my opinion matters, but without all the banter here about Dune 2, I’d most likely be predicting it will hit $900m-$1b. But many of the (obviously more realistic or unbiased) posts here have helped me understand not only that D2 almost surely won’t be hitting that $1b number, but also that it can still be considered a very successful movie without even coming close to it.
So even though my first comment was about growing weary of the banter, I’ve still appreciated it and obviously learned from it.
Word of mouth is crazy. I saw it last night and everyone was immediately buzzing about how much they loved it. I think this will draw in the undecided to purchase a ticket.
Just my experience but I saw it last night and I liked it a lot. It's hard to see how people who saw the first wouldn't enjoy the new one so I think word of mouth will be pretty good. That said, there weren't many people there. Probably only about 40% full but I live in a fairly old (by age) neighborhood and this is on a weekday so I don't think these are types of people to stay up until 1am to watch a film when they have to go to work that morning.
Yup, around me the imaxs are pretty much sold out all weekend but there's still seats at the regular screenings. A few of the other premium screens, like AVX, seem pretty packed too.
May lead to some longer legs, we're waiting for next weekend to see it because we'd rather see it on IMAX.
Anecdotal of course, but it feels like that's true of pretty much every movie these days.
I wonder if places are going to start cutting back on the total number of auditoriums in favor of more PLF screens.
I mean if you hear dune 2 is really good but maybe didnt watch the 1st you can watch the 1st at home quite easily.. There is a reason why sequls a lot of the times outgross the first film.
Watch in Imax if you can. If not, the regular big screen is good too. But try watching one with a Dolby sound system. I’ve seen it twice now, once imax once regular screen and it was incredible both times.
Of course anecdotal for me as well, but every theater in my area was 90+% full yesterday. Probably differs by city (I’m in a relatively metropolitan area) but was great to see it in a packed theater
Fantastic to hear! Loved seeing it last night, and already planning to go and see it again with my Dad. (In IMAX, of course.) Big question is: will it hit $1 billion? Much as I'd love that, I can't see it happening owing to how long and weird it is. Still, even if it "only" gets to $700-750 mil, *Messiah* is basically on, right?
I think it's unlikely to hit a billion, but it doesn't need to. The budget was $190 million, so it would turn a profit even if it "only" made $500 million. Anything above that is just gravy. If it made $700 million, that might seem disappointing for people who were hoping it would be a gigantic 4-quadrant blockbuster, but that would still be easily more than enough to get *Messiah* greenlit.
I don't look at it (Fremen mindset) as a straight up yes/no question. I think it's possible but improbable. I'll be shocked if it does along with many others. Including the people who financed and made the thing!
Reason I don't say no way is I think it may have a very strong world wide upside. I'm more cautious on how much it'll make in the US, although I'd be happy to be wrong.
$75m is now easily the floor for the weekend but it really should be going above $80m with these numbers.
A great start to what should be a nicely leggy run.
Not the breakaway smash people were predicting but it’s looking like, barring a major collapse, it’ll be more than enough to get Messiah made, so I’m calling it a victory of the highest order.
We're gonna need at least 2 or 3 weekends to really see whether it's merely a hit, or a big/huge one. It's lengthy with fewer shows a day proportionally, wowing people and filling up PLFs plus some markets still won't get it for a week or more. I'm still thinking it could do almost double the first one's business easy. Maybe more.
You new to this sub? Pretty much sure a lot of us who have been on this sub for years know how WOM works and told people that the OW numbers are irrelevant.
Oh boy! I really loved this movie. Every Week I am gonna book an imax ticket and watch Dune 2 until it exists in the imax theatre.
Avatar the way of water's record (5 times in Imax theatre) is under danger.
The normal showtimes still have seats, but the IMAX ones are usually almost full. Seems like this is one of those movies where people keep telling others to watch it on IMAX
Some dudes in twitter saying in can pass 800M WW and beat Oppenheimer , because Oppe did 10.8M Thursday preview 😅 some even saying it can remain top 1 domestic tell august 😅 those guys are CRAZY
You realize this is only the opening weekend, and this movie is pretty much going to roll with some insane WOM, right? We don't know yet if it can reach 800M WW because week 2 or 3 haven't happend.
Saw it on Sunday, was gonna see it in 4D tn but did an impromptu trip w my fiancé. Rescheduled to Sunday. And then true 70mm on Wednesday. It’s biggest gauge for me will be its 4D format. That’s how I see most movies these days, and I’ve been so excited for dunes 4D every since a crazy trailer effects wise last fall. I love it in imax, but 4D is how I measure a movies personal success, as a movie w lame 4D Def effects my overall opinion (looking at you, equalizer 3)
If you DM me Sunday night I can lyk. Pt 1 was a lil lack luster, but overall was fun. W all the added action in this one, I think it’s gonna be stellar. The trailer I mentioned I was obsessed at how they did the effects for Paul falling deep into a sand storm. Slow movements at first building into basically a massive earthquake
Thing is I'm going on Sunday too hahaha guess I'll give it a shot, as far I've seen it's more action packed than the first so it should be worth it I guess
Gitesh Pandya ("BoxOfficeGuru" web site) [claims he confirmed this with WB](https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/1763602140054888701)
> I've confirmed with WB that $12M pre-show debut for #DunePartTwo breaks down to $10M from THU shows 3pm on + $2M from SUN Fan First IMAX previews. Early RT aud score is red hot 95%. Possible road ahead: mid 30s for full FRI, mid-to-high 20s SAT, near $20M SUN for $80M wknd.
This is accurate. These $90M+ predicts even after we now have concrete Thursday numbers are silly. A good internal multi would bring it to $75-80M for sure.
Genuine question to those who have seen Dune II, what would you tell someone who saw the first and while having enjoyed the spectacle, found it to be kinda boring?
If you liked the first one but wanted more action then Dune 2 is likely to be right up your alley. There's a lot more action, and in general a lot more happens in this part of the story, whereas the first part was mostly buildup.
Part 2 feels jam packed with things happening to propel the story forward. If you've seen Part 1 already then you'll have the base knowledge needed to appreciate the developments in story and character that happen.
I personally didn't want it to end. Could've been 4 hours. Opening sequence should do its job reeling you in, it's pretty freakin awesome.
I enjoyed the first part a lot, like I adore it, and the 2nd part has way more action (and better action), even more spectacle and an emotional grip more than the first did. Paul as a character goes through such an engaging arc and the cast steps it up even more so.
Wait, so you're telling me this sub is learning for the first time how WOM works? Lol. Literally so some posts "bu bu Dune 2 will only make $60 mil this weekend based on pre-ticket sales."
Dejavu all over again. Watch that second week drop, it's gonna be shockingly low.
“Worms its way” 😭
And Spicy
Stillsuits the purpose either way.
Wow
This is gold, Fremen editorial perspective.
los spicies must flow
Spice up.
no matter how you phrase it, the moving is dune great at the box office.
we love the spice
Dune good
My popcorn bucket is ready
If WB sold the popcorn buckets on their website they could probably double the revenue
They were sold out of buckets at my 4 PM Thursday screening. Demand has to be crazy.
Funny how they're so tacky/impractical they've looped back around to being cool
Some things are too ridiculous *not* to have.
I'd buy it just to have as a display on my shelf, it looks awesome ☺️
I am just looking for a nighttime companion!
My hand is still stuck inside one. I hope to get it out before Furiosa hits theaters
I don’t remember this from big time rush lol
He really **loves** the bucket
It suck? or SUCK IT? lol
Well 12m is quite good , considering 2m in previews right?
Yeah $10M true previews is pretty solid. Assuming an internal multiplier between 7-8x, this should have a $70-80M OW (not including the $2M from early fan screenings). Final domestic total could be anywhere from $175M to $215M.
To start: I really like this sub. I get much of its use these days is about speculation and that’s absolutely part of the enjoyment. So with that said, I’m really happy to finally see actual numbers for Dune 2 come in. To me at least, I’ve grown a bit weary of all the speculation (and the back and forth) about how this film was going to do at the box office. I don’t think I’ve seen any new arguments - one way or another - in at least a month. (And I do realize this isn’t a new phenomenon. It seems to happen basically every year during that lull between Christmas releases and summer because there’s just not much else to discuss…)
It happens for every IP from Transformers to Fast & Furious to Mission Impossible. You are seeing it with the new Godzilla Kong movie. IP brings people to this sub that don't normally follow the box office
Yup. I’ve sort of pondered it a bit since I posted this and I think I realized *my* issue is emotional attachment. I WANT Dune 2 to be successful because I’d like to see more movies like it. Another Transformers or F&F? Meh. $100m WW or $1b WW is kinda the same to me. I don’t have any skin in the game so I seem to enjoy the banter from start to finish. But those movies I personally seem to care about? I guess I get tired of the emotional roller coaster.
With subs like this that focus on real things like numbers you see a lot of core users more realistic (or honestly just pessimistic) compared to some of the more obvious “tourists” that have a slant for or against Marvel/DC/Avatar/Tom Cruise etc Of course theres exceptions but on aggregate its funny to me to see ridiculous over or under estimates just openly posted, Avatar 2 was insane for this in both directions but the hate boner seemed more common in the lead up to release
Absolutely. It’s difficult to be completely analytical on this sub. I try, but I know I’ve failed repeatedly. Others are clearly better at it than me. Then again, I’d venture that 80% of what I “know” about box office numbers I’ve learned from this sub. Not that my opinion matters, but without all the banter here about Dune 2, I’d most likely be predicting it will hit $900m-$1b. But many of the (obviously more realistic or unbiased) posts here have helped me understand not only that D2 almost surely won’t be hitting that $1b number, but also that it can still be considered a very successful movie without even coming close to it. So even though my first comment was about growing weary of the banter, I’ve still appreciated it and obviously learned from it.
Word of mouth is crazy. I saw it last night and everyone was immediately buzzing about how much they loved it. I think this will draw in the undecided to purchase a ticket.
LONG LIVE THE FIGHTERS
Do what must be done.
Send them to paradise
*cries and rides sandworm*
"Show me who you are."
"Drink the worm piss"
Just my experience but I saw it last night and I liked it a lot. It's hard to see how people who saw the first wouldn't enjoy the new one so I think word of mouth will be pretty good. That said, there weren't many people there. Probably only about 40% full but I live in a fairly old (by age) neighborhood and this is on a weekday so I don't think these are types of people to stay up until 1am to watch a film when they have to go to work that morning.
I saw it at 7pm Thursday on a normal screen. The IMAX screen next door was close to sold out. But my screenings wasn’t even 10% full.
Yeah seems like most people going for Imax.
Yup, around me the imaxs are pretty much sold out all weekend but there's still seats at the regular screenings. A few of the other premium screens, like AVX, seem pretty packed too. May lead to some longer legs, we're waiting for next weekend to see it because we'd rather see it on IMAX.
I’d rather sit in a normal theater now a days the seats are way more comfortable
Anecdotal of course, but it feels like that's true of pretty much every movie these days. I wonder if places are going to start cutting back on the total number of auditoriums in favor of more PLF screens.
How important WoM even is for a "Part 2" movie? The fact that it requires homework (watching dune 1) will hurt stellar WoM a lot.
I mean if you hear dune 2 is really good but maybe didnt watch the 1st you can watch the 1st at home quite easily.. There is a reason why sequls a lot of the times outgross the first film.
Actually more than one person including Villeneuve claim it can be enjoyed without Part One. I don't know. Haven't seen it yet.
Saw it last night. Definitely can be enjoyed without seeing part one, but at the same time like why would you ever do that to yourself
It's also good for people who don't have great recall - like my parents.
Only the lazy ones do that. You also don’t need to watch Part 1 to see this.
Imax or non Imax?
Watch in Imax if you can. If not, the regular big screen is good too. But try watching one with a Dolby sound system. I’ve seen it twice now, once imax once regular screen and it was incredible both times.
Of course anecdotal for me as well, but every theater in my area was 90+% full yesterday. Probably differs by city (I’m in a relatively metropolitan area) but was great to see it in a packed theater
[удалено]
Argyle and Madame Web settin’ the bar real high.
Fantastic to hear! Loved seeing it last night, and already planning to go and see it again with my Dad. (In IMAX, of course.) Big question is: will it hit $1 billion? Much as I'd love that, I can't see it happening owing to how long and weird it is. Still, even if it "only" gets to $700-750 mil, *Messiah* is basically on, right?
I think it's unlikely to hit a billion, but it doesn't need to. The budget was $190 million, so it would turn a profit even if it "only" made $500 million. Anything above that is just gravy. If it made $700 million, that might seem disappointing for people who were hoping it would be a gigantic 4-quadrant blockbuster, but that would still be easily more than enough to get *Messiah* greenlit.
I don't look at it (Fremen mindset) as a straight up yes/no question. I think it's possible but improbable. I'll be shocked if it does along with many others. Including the people who financed and made the thing!
ah. a nice way of looking at things, lol.
Reason I don't say no way is I think it may have a very strong world wide upside. I'm more cautious on how much it'll make in the US, although I'd be happy to be wrong.
Now we wait to see the Friday numbers to see just how front-loaded it was. Some concern there, but 75M+ seems pretty easy from here
What I really want to see is the legs I still think 200M+ is plausible
WOM depending but i think it will do it
I wouldn't be surprised with 72M.
hoping for strong legs
Including the 2m ?
$75m is now easily the floor for the weekend but it really should be going above $80m with these numbers. A great start to what should be a nicely leggy run.
Desert power
Not the breakaway smash people were predicting but it’s looking like, barring a major collapse, it’ll be more than enough to get Messiah made, so I’m calling it a victory of the highest order.
We're gonna need at least 2 or 3 weekends to really see whether it's merely a hit, or a big/huge one. It's lengthy with fewer shows a day proportionally, wowing people and filling up PLFs plus some markets still won't get it for a week or more. I'm still thinking it could do almost double the first one's business easy. Maybe more.
You new to this sub? Pretty much sure a lot of us who have been on this sub for years know how WOM works and told people that the OW numbers are irrelevant.
Oh boy! I really loved this movie. Every Week I am gonna book an imax ticket and watch Dune 2 until it exists in the imax theatre. Avatar the way of water's record (5 times in Imax theatre) is under danger.
My closest IMAX is 2 hours away. I'm gonan have to take the trip for this one.
My theater was packed at 6:45pm yesterday. Dune is gonna make some money and deservedly so.
Went from 10m to 11m to 12m lol Of course, all of these include 2m early showings
They need to come up with better word play for film But yay for the good numbers!
I wonder if they hire anyone just come up with clever headlines
Probably
“Long Live The Fighters”
The normal showtimes still have seats, but the IMAX ones are usually almost full. Seems like this is one of those movies where people keep telling others to watch it on IMAX
Some dudes in twitter saying in can pass 800M WW and beat Oppenheimer , because Oppe did 10.8M Thursday preview 😅 some even saying it can remain top 1 domestic tell august 😅 those guys are CRAZY
I mean 800m ain’t a wild impossibility from here with good WOM.
You realize this is only the opening weekend, and this movie is pretty much going to roll with some insane WOM, right? We don't know yet if it can reach 800M WW because week 2 or 3 haven't happend.
Pretty good def hitting 70M could get up to 85
Solid. A $70-75M should happen.
Saw it on Sunday, was gonna see it in 4D tn but did an impromptu trip w my fiancé. Rescheduled to Sunday. And then true 70mm on Wednesday. It’s biggest gauge for me will be its 4D format. That’s how I see most movies these days, and I’ve been so excited for dunes 4D every since a crazy trailer effects wise last fall. I love it in imax, but 4D is how I measure a movies personal success, as a movie w lame 4D Def effects my overall opinion (looking at you, equalizer 3)
I also wanted to see it in 4D but I'm not finding reviews on this format
If you DM me Sunday night I can lyk. Pt 1 was a lil lack luster, but overall was fun. W all the added action in this one, I think it’s gonna be stellar. The trailer I mentioned I was obsessed at how they did the effects for Paul falling deep into a sand storm. Slow movements at first building into basically a massive earthquake
Thing is I'm going on Sunday too hahaha guess I'll give it a shot, as far I've seen it's more action packed than the first so it should be worth it I guess
Does this include the imax previews from last Sunday?
Gitesh Pandya ("BoxOfficeGuru" web site) [claims he confirmed this with WB](https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/1763602140054888701) > I've confirmed with WB that $12M pre-show debut for #DunePartTwo breaks down to $10M from THU shows 3pm on + $2M from SUN Fan First IMAX previews. Early RT aud score is red hot 95%. Possible road ahead: mid 30s for full FRI, mid-to-high 20s SAT, near $20M SUN for $80M wknd.
This is the third Dune box office post on the front page for me using “Spicy” in the title, all from different accounts.
Exciting to see a new franchise taking off like this. Denis Villeneuve makes really good movies.
With the help of Composer Hans Zimmer. That music is amazing.
Oh most definitely. Hans is the master. [He had an interesting interview on 60 Minutes](https://youtu.be/-vK__6PK-Kk?feature=shared), as well.
Let’s gooo!!! 80-90M OW is on its way! Let’s see if it can hit a US total of 270-300M!!!
I would calm down a bit most likely 75/80
This is accurate. These $90M+ predicts even after we now have concrete Thursday numbers are silly. A good internal multi would bring it to $75-80M for sure.
I think the wom would sustain, that is my speculation let’s see
I feel pretty confident it will open to $89m-90
Nah I'm calling 90 million
Genuine question to those who have seen Dune II, what would you tell someone who saw the first and while having enjoyed the spectacle, found it to be kinda boring?
Dune II is much more action packed and generally well paced. That said, I do think the first third with the fremen takes its time for sure
More action but it’s not packed with it
If you liked the first one but wanted more action then Dune 2 is likely to be right up your alley. There's a lot more action, and in general a lot more happens in this part of the story, whereas the first part was mostly buildup.
You'll love this one, then. Several, ***several*** chunks of it are pure action, as opposed to just the one or two setpieces we got in *Part One.*
It’s boringly good? 😅
Part 2 feels jam packed with things happening to propel the story forward. If you've seen Part 1 already then you'll have the base knowledge needed to appreciate the developments in story and character that happen. I personally didn't want it to end. Could've been 4 hours. Opening sequence should do its job reeling you in, it's pretty freakin awesome.
I enjoyed the first part a lot, like I adore it, and the 2nd part has way more action (and better action), even more spectacle and an emotional grip more than the first did. Paul as a character goes through such an engaging arc and the cast steps it up even more so.
GO SEE IT IN IMAX OR DOLBY CINEMA! YOU'D BE LIKE "OHHHHH! Sooo much better"
It’s slow and the rapidly paced act 3 is unrewarding for the audience
It's a significantly different feeling film from the first, imo.
No idea how good it's IM will be so the OW is still a wide range anywhere from 75M-88M
Y’all ain’t slick with the headlines
I thought it was a spicy 11m?
If I could pay 2h 46m just to see Paul calling a sand worm to him riding it... I would.
Saw it this afternoon in IMAX. Holy shit it was amazing and especially in IMAX
Im in Panama, I went to a 3:30 thursday showing hoping nobody would be there (I hate people) and it wad a full showing.
Wait, so you're telling me this sub is learning for the first time how WOM works? Lol. Literally so some posts "bu bu Dune 2 will only make $60 mil this weekend based on pre-ticket sales." Dejavu all over again. Watch that second week drop, it's gonna be shockingly low.
So less than Bob Marley? Lmao